Player Profile: Elvis Andrus
March 13th, 2013 | by Ray Flowers |
Elvis Andrus is a somewhat polarizing player in fantasy baseball. Some people love his speed. Others think there isn’t much to separate him from Alcides Escobar. Others think the Rangers might be better off trading him and letting Jurickson Profar have at it (as of now it appears that Profar will begin the year in the minors with Andrus playing shortstop and Ian Kinsler holding down the fort at second base). In what follows I’ll given the pro’s and con’s with Andrus as we try to ferret out what his true value should be heading into 2013.
PRO
Andrus has been a very durable player. During his four year big league career he’s played at least 145 games every season and has hit 150 games played the last two years.
Andrus has hit .275 for his career. That’s not a huge number by any means, but it’s about .020 points better than the league average so there needn’t be any worry about him in this measure. It should also be pointed out that he’s seen his average climb from .265 to .279 to .286 the past three years. Also, he’s been extremely consistent in the BABIP category. For his career his BABIP is .317. The last three seasons that mark has been .317, .312 and .332. Again, consistency which I really like to see. For his young career his line drive rate is 21.6 percent. In three of his four years the mark has been at least 21.9 percent (the only year it was below that was 2010 when it was still at the big league average at 19.3 percent). Andrus is also a rock star at knowing what he is good at and sticking with it. What he does well is keep the ball out of the air. For his career his ground ball rate is 57.4 percent. In his four seasons that mark has been between 55.8 and 61.1 percent. Again, consistency. As a result his 2.72 career GB-rate, a total he exactly matched last season by the way.
Andrus has speed. Some will points out that he stole “only” 21 bases last year, and for a guy who swiped 33, 32 and 37 his first three years that is disappointing. But is there anyone out there who legitimately thinks he couldn’t steal 30 bases again this season? Come on now. How about these facts? His total of 123 steals the past four years is the most in baseball for a shortstop (three more than the oft injured Jose Reyes). Andrus is one of 17 men in baseball who has stolen at least 20 bases in each of the past four years. He’s also the only shortstop in baseball who belongs in that club.
Andrus scored 72 runs his first season, but over the past three seasons he has scored 88, 96 and 85 runs. The last three seasons he is one of 10 men who have scored at least 85 runs in each season. He is the only shortstop that can make that claim. Over the last four years only one shortstop has scored more runs – Derek Jeter (401 to 341). Andrus is third in runs scored the past three seasons at the position – Jeter (294), Reyes (270) and Andrus (269).
CON
He’s yet to hit .290 in a season.
He’s never hit seven homers in a season. In fact, he’s gone deep just 14 times in four seasons. He’s completely deficient in the homer category and that isn’t going to change.
He’s never been an RBI machine. In his first two seasons he knocked in a total of 75 runners. The last two seasons he’s at least improved a little bit up to 60 and 62 RBIs. Still, that’s just not a number anyone wants to see from their starting fantasy shortstop.
He only stole 21 bases last year after 3-straight years of 30 steals.
CONCLUSION
Don’t know about you, but doesn’t the “pro” section look to be a lot more substantial than the “con” section with Andrus? There are some players, think Juan Pierre/Ben Revere/ Brett Gardner etc., that are extremely talented in one respect or another, but totally disappointing in another faze of the game. It’s just how it works folks. Instead of bashing Andrus for his lack of power, a completely fair point to bring up by the way, why don’t we celebrate what he is – a durable, young player who steals bases and scores runs with the best at his position. Andrus has also been an extremely reliable/steady player from year to year without the wild swings that some players throw out there. Andrus also owns a skill set that says his career .275 batting average is totally legit while there might still be a .300 season in his bat and legs. Is he an extremely different player than Alcides Escobar who I referenced at the top of this piece? No he isn’t. Can you get Escobar at a cheaper cost on draft day? You certainly can if you judge the answer by the NFBC ADP information. However, remember this. Personally, I don’t mind paying a little bit extra for stability/predictability. It’s possible that the better play in ’13 will end up being Escobar, but as I noted in his Player Profile there are more questions with Escobar than Andrus. For me, I’ll take a shot on Andrus, especially if he falls a bit on draft day, because I get the felling that there just might be a pretty impressive season in the cards for the Rangers’ starter at shortstop.
* Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Alicdes Escobar, Ben Revere, Brett Gardner, Derek Jeter, Elvis Andrus, Ian Kinlser, Jose Reyes, Juan Pierre, Jurickson Profar
By Järpen Fäviken on Mar 13, 2013
Ray: Glad you wrote more pros than cons because I view Elvis similarly
Trouble is, in my league, most of my colleagues view him that way as well, so he’s been drafted in the upper $20′s!
By Järpen Fäviken on Mar 13, 2013
So I’m kindly hijacking the thread… I got an offer Bourn ($20) for my D. Murphy ($1) I need speed. 14-team mix. Fair trade?
By Ender on Mar 13, 2013
To me the discussion isn’t about Andrus himself, it is about his skillset. Non elite SB guys who bat leadoff and don’t hit HR are just not very valuable. If Andrus goes 90 R, 4 HR, 55 RBI, 30 SB, .280 AVG he is a mid range SS. I think he is probably being drafted about where he should but he is a guy I’m probably never drafting. I’d much rather have Castro, Desmond or Asdrubal after that all the SS are kinda meh so that is probably where Andrus should go.
By Fish on Mar 13, 2013
Ray, my NL only league is drafting earlier than usual this year (March24). As a result, we are drafting off the 40 man rosters instead of our usual 25 man roster. I’m wondering if guys like Puig and Soler might be good $1 buys at the end of the draft, or if there are any others in a similar situation that you could see stepping up this year or next and providing great value for $1. As always, thank you.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 13, 2013
Jarpen – If you need the speed, the price is low enough that you can add Bourn and should be ok.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 13, 2013
Ender – I think everyone would rather have Castro, Desmond, Asdrubal… Andrus is certainly on the next level since he has no power to speak of.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 13, 2013
Fish – I dont think Puig or Soler shows his face in the big leagues before Sept. Not gonna say they aren’t a reserve round option, but very little hope for either to be significant contributors this season.
By Danny on Mar 13, 2013
Ray-
Does it not bother you that he had the fewest steals of his career even though he had the most ABs and highest OBP of his career last season? I know you said you believe he is a 30 steal threat, but that increase in AB/OBP and decrease in steals is a bit concerning, no? Plus, what could be the reason for not stealing as much? I have read that it is because he put on added weight last season to add more “pop”, but I don’t believe that would decrease his steals totals that drastically (from 49 in 2011 to 31 in 2012).
By Ray Flowers on Mar 13, 2013
Danny – It’s one year. 3/4 of he’s been a 30 SB guy. The Rangers may have to generate a bit more offense this year too, no Hamilton, so I see him kicking up the running a bit. Sometimes a 30 HR guy hits 20, and sometimes a 30 SB guy steals 20. Just how it is really. Don’t think it has to be something big.
By Matthew M on Mar 13, 2013
Ray,
First off…LOVE the draft guide. Well worth the money.
Keeper question for 12 team mixed H2H league…need one of the following: C Santana ($19), J Nathan ($9), A Cobb ($8), M Harvey ($8), Melky Cabrera ($7). I never keep a closer, but we lose points for blown saves so a good one is valuable. Starters with good K/BB ratios are also very valuable…wins are de-emphasized in this league.
Thank you!
By Jim on Mar 13, 2013
Ray, Thanks for the profile on Andrus. I’m certainly onboard for the same reasons. Doesn’t it seem he’s been around forever? That kid won’t be 25-y-o till late August, so while I traded him away for some needed power in the offseason, I’ll be hoping to get him back at the first sign of mediocrity in 2013. I think some owners may be down on him a bit with Hamilton and Michael Young gone from the lineup behind him, but IMO Elvis is a bust-out waiting to happen.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 13, 2013
Matthew M – All the players are keepable at their price. Cobb train is a little out of control. Harvey has a great arm, but walks might be an issue. Really like Melky at $7.
It sounds like you want me to say keep Nathan, so keep Nathan. His cost is half of what I project him to cost so he’s a great bargain, his K/BB is always strong, and he’s very consistent.
By Matthew M on Mar 13, 2013
Thanks, Ray. I didn’t want to influence you towards Nathan…he’s actually the last guy I want to keep on this list. Thanks for the feedback. Very much appreciated.
By costaricanchata on Mar 13, 2013
Ray :
in my keeper league (keep 9) , 5×5 vanilla .. one C :
due to the depth at 3rd base , am dropping moustakas and going with wilin rosario .
am i way off base , here ?
thanking you , in advance .
By Ray Flowers on Mar 13, 2013
costaricanchata – I’m not a huge fan of either. Starting only one catcher further devalues Rosario, but I don’t have a problem with what you’re doing here.
By Jarpen on Mar 13, 2013
Trade offer just arrived: I was offered A. Gordon ($11) for my D. Wright ($29)) — 14-team mix, $260 auction. I have Prado in 3B and was going to throw Wright back into the draft. Doable?
By Ray Flowers on Mar 13, 2013
Jarpen – If you can keep Gordon, sure.
By Ben on Mar 14, 2013
I’m in a 16 team H2H league with pitchers and hitters even in points and was wondering if I should offer Mike Minor and Kendrys Morales for Paul Goldschmidt and Sheldy miller? I previously offered this and the other guy liked it but i withdrew my offer, should i offer it again? Morales is my only 1B and I have alot of pitching ( Kershaw, Cain, Ian Kennedy, Matt Moore, Darvish, Matt Harvey and Detwiller)
and thanks
By Andrew on Mar 14, 2013
Just purchased your guide 10 min ago and can’t wait to review it! In a 260 auction 6×6 with ops replacing avg and BB counting. Would u be willing to spend 39 on Bautista, 29 on Bruce, 28 on Reyes, 10 on swish, 13 on Dunn and konerko and 13 on Gordon? I’ve mocked a million times and I always seem to get them with great value
By Ray Flowers on Mar 14, 2013
Ben – Goldschmidt is clearly the better 1B. However, I’d say Minor is the better bet for a full season of success this season than Miller. Shelby appears likely to win the 5th spot for Cards, but it’s not a lock. What if he is in the minors until mid May or June?
If it’s a keeper lg make the offer for sure. If it’s a redraft, I’d pass for now.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 14, 2013
Andrew – I’m sure you will likely it my friend.
I have no problem with the $ amounts for any of those guys in your setup. I’m always a bit leery with Bautista, and coming back off the wrist he isn’t certain to be 100% in week one, but with OPS and walks in the mix, can’t fault you at all for spending big on him.