2013 SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio – Experts Draft
March 14th, 2013 | by Ray Flowers |
I just keep doing fantasy baseball drafts don’t I? Seems like every time I wake up I get my bowl of cereal, my Red Bull (sometimes there is vodka in it), answer a plethora of tweets and emails, and then I end up being in a draft of some kind. Which draft am I talking about in this article? It’s the SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio draft, populated by the genius minds of the network. How did my team turn out? Before I get to that, here are the rules.
12 team mixed league
5×5 scoring
14 hitters, nine pitchers
six reserve rounds (also one DL spot)
Here’s the club.
C: Mike Napoli (9th round), Jarrod Saltalamacchia (18)
1B: Adam Dunn (15)
2B: Martin Prado (6)
3B: Miguel Cabrera (1)
SS: Hanley Ramirez (2)
MI: Andrelton Simmons (21)
CI: Kevin Youkilis (17), Lance Berkman (26)
OF: B.J. Upton (3), Shin-Soo Choo (4), Austin Jackson (5), Melky Cabrera (14), Juan Pierre (16), Dayan Viciedo (22), Rajai Davis (27)
UT: Brandon Belt (20)
STARTING PITCHERS: James Shields (7), Yovani Gallardo (8), Zack Greinke (10), Tim Lincecum (11), James McDonald (23), Wandy Rodriguez (24), Edinson Volquez (25), Francisco Liriano (29 – DL)
RELIEF PITCHERS: J.J. Putz (12), John Axford (13), Chris Perez (19), David Hernandez (28)
It’s important to note a couple of salient points before I dig into my team.
This league has one DL spot. That was part of the reason I wasn’t worried about taking Liriano with my last pick. I’ll stick him on waivers and add another arm in week one.
This league was done on a service that has very lenient rules for positional qualification. Take the case of Prado. He should only qualify at outfield (119 games) and 3B (25), but in this league he also qualifies at shortstop (13) and second (10). I say it all the time, but it’s vital to know the rules of your league, and in this league the following players qualify at more than one spot:
Ramirez: 3B, SS
Prado: 2B, 3B, SS, OF
Napoli: C, 1B
Dunn: 1B, OF
Youkilis: 1B, 3B
No on to the offense.
Napoli and Saltalamacchia might hit a combined .240, but both should go go deep at least 20 times with Napoli having 30 HR upside if he can get 500 at-bats at first base for the Red Sox.
I had the #3 pick and was worried that Ryan Braun and Miguel Cabrera would go 1-2 leaving me to pass on Mike Trout at #3. Luckily Trout went #2 overall so I could draft Cabrera. Dunn is a batting average disaster, but he’s nails in HR, RBI, runs scored. He’s hit at least 38 homers with 92 RBIs and 79 runs scored in eight of nine years. Youkilis should see a nice bounce back at third base in Yankee Stadium, and Berkman was also a late round add who is just one season removed from hitting .300 with 30 homers. Belt has 15/15 talent, and this might be the year he finally lives up to his billing.
Everyone keeps hating on HanRam. Give me that 20/20 talent that qualifies at two spots. I’m a big believer this year. Simmons is likely to bat leadoff for the Braves this season in what could be a potent lineup. I don’t love Simmons this year, but I’ll take that talent in the 21st round. Prado is my starter at second. I’ll take that .300 average and potential 15/15 upside without hesitation.
My outfield is solid. Upton could go 20/40. Choo could go 20/20. Jackson could go 15/25. I’ll take that as a top-3. My fourth is Melky Cabrera. I’m not quite sure how he performs coming back from his PED suspension, but after proving himself to be a .300 hitter the past two years, I took a shot (more on the reason for that below). My 5th outfielder is Juan Pierre. Forty steals and 80 runs, not to mention a .280 average, seem doable. Viciedo never walks, but that’s a 25 homer bat, and I have no idea why Davis was still there in the 27th round. I’ll trade him to someone who needs some speed.
On the hill…
I went earlier for pitching in this draft that I normally do. Why? Because it was where the value was. I didn’t jump into the mix early, the 7th round was my first arm, but look at my top-4: Shields, Gallardo, Greinke and Lincecum. Do you honestly think that each of those four men can’t strike out 200 batters while winning 15 games? People are worried about Greinke’s arm. He was worth taking a shot on in the 10th round (his current ADP is inside the top-60). I picked him up at selection #118. Lincecum? I’ve long been on record expecting a bounce back (see – Is Lincecum Washed Up After Years of Dominance?). Behind that foursome I have another big arm in McDonald, and Wandy Rodriguez is a solid 6th starter. I also added another potential big K arm in Volquez in the reserve rounds. In the pen I also did something I rarely do – I ended up with three closers. I took Putz/Axford because of the value I felt they held, and then much like with Greinke, I just couldn’t pass up Perez in the 19th when others were seemingly afraid to take him cause he might miss the start of the season. I thought Perez was a great value in the 19th round, side issue be damned. Don’t forget that Perez had 36 and 39 saves the last two years. I also tabbed Hernandez as a middle reliever, one who would likely take over if Putz were injured.
Some final thoughts.
I have batting average drains in Dunn, Napoli, Saltalamacchia and Upton. I offset that with the likes of Prado, Miguel Cabrera, Choo, Jackson and Melky Cabrera. I added two all speed guys in Pierre/Davis to help me strongly in steals (not to mention the potential 20 thefts guys like Ramirez, Simmons, Upton, Choo and Jackson). I’ve got youth – Belt, Simmons – and age – Youkilis and Dunn. I really like the balance of this offense.
On the mound, I like it. My top-4, if healthy, will be better than any other top-4 in this league. If my three relievers stay healthy, that’s 100 saves. For not taking a starter early, and not taking a reliever until the 12th round, don’t you think my staff turned out pretty well? Me too.
For the full RESULTS OF THE DRAFT click on the link.
* Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Adam Dunn, Andrelton Simmons, Austin Jackson, B.J. Upton, Chris Perez, David Hernandez, Dayan Viciedo, Edinson Volquez, Francisco Liriano, Hanley Ramirez, J.J. Putz, James McDonald, James Shields, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, John Axford, Juan Pierre, Kevin Youkilis, Lance Berkman, Martin Prado, Melky Cabrera, Miguel Cabrera, Mike Napoli, Rajai Davis, Shin-Soo Choo, Tim Lincecum, Wandy Rodriguez, Yovani Gallardo, Zack Greinke
By Princivalli on Mar 14, 2013
I think I like this team best of the ones you’ve posted here. You are determined re Youkilis though aren’t you. I don’t see a bounceback Ray. I see an injury prone 33 year old who hasn’t played over 122 games since 2009, hasn’t hit over .260 since 2010, who’s K & walk rate are trending the wrong way and, of course, has no speed. He does have the opportunity however, I’ll give you that. The Yankees are sure hoping your right.
By Baseballer on Mar 14, 2013
What a fun draft this was…I do think that Kessenich has you on SP though..he has the top4 IMHO: Hamels, Cain, Peavy, Cj Wilson.
(and Hellickson is a better#5 than McDonald who was as bad in the second half as he was good in the second half).
What are your thought on Harper going second round?
By Ray Flowers on Mar 14, 2013
Princeivalli – I might be wrong an you might be right about Youk. I still think though when you’re talking him in the high teens it’s worth the risk.
http://baseballguys.com/2012/12/12/player-profile-kevin-youkilis/
By Ray Flowers on Mar 14, 2013
Baseballer – Peavy has thrown 175 innings once since 2007, and though I like Wilson, he is coming back off surgery and a horrible second half.
Harper is going in the second round, sometimes the first, in every Experts Draft I’ve seen. It’s the price you will have to pay for his services if you want them.
http://baseballguys.com/2013/01/30/player-profile-bryce-harper/
By Scott on Mar 14, 2013
I hate to say it but I like Kay’s team. If all falls right she will be competitive.
By Baseballer on Mar 14, 2013
Ray, I remember the post well…if you recall, I am the one with the potential to keep harper, however, competing with Stras and Reyes for my final spot. I will already have Kershaw and Cutch.
By the way, you deserve to be arrested for highway robbery for geting Greinke in the 10th round. Dodgers are just being cautious with greike…thats incredible value. He’s been going in the 5th or 6th in most drafts I’ve been in. I also like Perez and Belt in the 19th and 20th.
By Butters on Mar 14, 2013
Love this one Ray. I agree with princivalli that this is the best team you’ve posted. Better overall offense than and and much less risk in your pitching staff with even higher upside.
I have a quick question.
It’s something I’ve asked you before but questioning it now.
12 team, 6 keepers, 35 man rosters.
One of my possible keepers is Adam Dunn in the 12th. The way Brandon Belt is doing in spring I’m debating to keep him in the 29th.
So Belt in the 29th or Dunn in the 12th?
By Ray Flowers on Mar 14, 2013
Scott – You know why you like Kay’s team… cause she was using my Draft Guide.
By scott on Mar 14, 2013
We are going from a 12 team to a 13 team mixed roto $260 auction. From your experience does that inflate the prices for the top players? Generally guys like Braun, Cano will go for $36-40, will adding the extra team skew pricing?
By Ray Flowers on Mar 14, 2013
Baseballer – I thought so too with Greinke. Funny thing, I was called out for it a bit on the show. We’ll see.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 14, 2013
Butters – You do enough of these, and sooner or later things work out for you.
If you are only keeping six guys, I don’t think either is a a keeper if your in a 5×5 lg. Given the cost, I’d go Belt. Dunn is NAILS in three categories, but awful – a negative – in the other two (as you know).
By Ray Flowers on Mar 14, 2013
Scott – There is no rule. Some panic there will be less elite player so they spend more. Others thing they can get better deals in the middle rounds after money is spent so they don’t go all in for players. I’ve heard of people spending into the $50′s for players this season which is insane to me, so you never know.
By Princivalli on Mar 14, 2013
the multi-position players are very nice, especially at shallow positions such as 3b, SS & 2b. guys like HanRam, Prado, Scutaro (later) are very valuable. Ray, what do you think of Matt Carpenter if he ends up the Cardinals 2b this year? Based on 10 game eligibility he also qualifies at 1b, 3b & OF.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 14, 2013
Princivalli – Carpenter, if he wins the job (Kozma looks to be the starter at SS), is a nice bat. In an NL-only league Carpenter is a great get for the flexibility. In a mixed league, as a second sacker, he could be a top-15 option. Problem is – how often will he be removed late in games for defense, and how low in the order will he hit? To me, in mixed, Carpenter is nothing more than a reserve round selection that could pay off with a solid, but unspectacular, season.
By Butters on Mar 14, 2013
Hahaha, I’m beginning to think your previous drafts are just to throw these guys off
We actually have 7 offensive categories the other 2 being OBP and SLG, does that change anything (regarding Dunn or Belt)
By jb(not JB) on Mar 14, 2013
Ray, What inning(s) do the best Holds pitchers generally enter the game? Odd question I know, but look at the source…
thanks
By Ray Flowers on Mar 14, 2013
Butters – Dunn is likely to be more valuable in that setup with the extra categories, though Belt is pretty good at getting on base. It comes down to value. Dunn is a bit safer bet on the field, but the cost is substantially higher.
By MN_Mike on Mar 14, 2013
I think you’re the team to beat in this league.
Two questions for you:
1) In a H2H league, with the new way interleague games are scheduled, would that affect the value of a 1B from the NL over an AL 1B/DH guy in the same tier? In particular, does someone like Allen Craig, jump ahead of Billy Butler in your rankings?
2) Looking at my upcoming draft, I seem to be able to pick from Pedroia, Hanley, and Reyes at the turn of the 2nd and 3rd rounds. It is possibly that Justin Upton would be available too. I have Cargo as my keeper. Any advice on who I should target of those players? If all were available, who would you draft?
Thanks so much for all the help!
By Ray Flowers on Mar 14, 2013
MN_Mike – You can make the argument that missing some games here and there is worth downgrading a DH/1B if that guy will be playing interleague games. I wouldn’t put much stock in it though it might be the deciding factor if you have two guys ranked identically. The two guys you mentioned, if you think Craig can play 150 games (not a certainty), then you could take him ahead of Butler.
By Jon on Mar 14, 2013
Hey Ray – team looks good! Love the SP especially. Great value.
My main league has switched a few settings and I was wondering if you could give me a quick read on whether these scoring settings should affect my draft strategy at all. The league is 10-tam, non-keeper 6×6 league with 13 hitter spots, 9 pitcher spots, 3 bench and one DL. Here are the scoring settings:
AVG, OPS, HR, RBI, R, SB
ERA, WHIP, K/9, QS, SV, IP
should this change my strategy in the early rounds at all? For example, does Prince become a top-5 pick and Verlander a no-doubt second rounder? Would it change where you target guys given depth and scoring settings? I feel like a BJ upton becomes more valuable since his strengths are valued here.
Any general strategy you can suggest on where to draft positions or approach would be much appreciated!! Thanks for another great guide. Best $10 i spent this month.
By Steve Davis on Mar 14, 2013
Really like this team. Well balanced offense and a very good staff.. I really like Dr Rotos team too. He got Medlen as his 4th starter and Minor as a 5th. Thats a damn good staff. Good Luck!
By Pargeman on Mar 15, 2013
Ray I really enjoy listening to your thoughts on Sirius radio. I also enjoy reading your work here at Baseballguys…I am arguing with a friend about BA…I did notice your pickups of guys who can be 20/20 or better yet cant bat .240…I dont totally care about BA even if it is a catagory we use. He tells me you cant draft anyone with .268 BA and lower regardless what else he does?? Your thoughts? Thanks so much!
By holyWahoos on Mar 15, 2013
Ray, pure points league (no negative points for Ks), Dunn put up 543 points last season, only behind Butler, Pujols, Fielder, Encarnacion (and Miggy). Save the money and go after him for cheap at 1B? Keeping Trout $1, BJ Upton $10, Pedroia $38. Would use the money saved to go after Stanton.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 15, 2013
Jon – I always target power arms, so the k/9 thing wouldn’t change things much for me. QS – again, I target guys with health/consistency over upside youngsters, so not much change. OPS is a general gauge of overall effectiveness, so if you are taking the right hitters, not much diff there either.
Verlander had a 2 batter lower K rate than Scherzer. Gallardo had as many QS as Verlander.
BJ Upton has a poor batting average, and his OPS of .758 isn’t very good. De Aza had a higher mark last season.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 15, 2013
Pargeman – Thanks for your support. Always nice to hear people are in my corner.
HOW does your friend know who will hit .268 or better? As this article points out there is just no way to know – http://baseballguys.com/2013/03/15/fantasy-baseball-player-volatility/
Simply looking at least year’s numbers doesn’t do it.
Trying to have a .268 team batting avg I understand, but proj. are just that – projections. No one really knows what will happen with that. Passing on guys just because they hit .267 last year, I’m sorry, is a really terrible idea.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 15, 2013
holyWahoos – Dunn should be able to perform pretty much at the level of last season. If in your league that puts him as a top-7 1B, and he costs half as much as the other top guys, why not go with him?
By dennis on Mar 15, 2013
Hi Ray,
Have to echo many of the other posters. I like this team the most of any you have posted here. Good luck!
Dennis
By Ray Flowers on Mar 15, 2013
Dennis – Thanks buddy. Hopefully it plays out well.
By Jordan on Mar 15, 2013
I don’t understand what I’m seeing. Cabrera in the 14th round? Seriously? He’s tearing it up in spring, scandal or no scandal. And Grienke in the 10th? After Napoli? Unless I’m missing something important here, I’d love to be in that league.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 15, 2013
Jordan – I played the draft like a fiddle. That’s just how The Oracle does it.
By Lawn Gnome on Mar 15, 2013
Ray you are spot on in your strategy that I think I’ve heard you say on the Drive to get as many close to 5 tool guys early in the draft so as not to get hamstrung later being forced to pick one trick ponies that play intermittently. I’m definitely taking your advice on that front.
Good luck with your man crush on Hanley. I’m guessing the overwhelming majority of haters on Hanley took him in he top 3 overall a couple years ago and are still traumatized, like me. Nevertheless, it’s great to see a Giant fan work both sides of the aisle and go with a few Dodgers on your team.
By Lawn Gnome on Mar 15, 2013
And another thing………unrelated to this thread, do you know what Chris Liss defense is for taking Stanton at 7 is? When would you take him Ray? I took him 17 overall, in a 10 team points league and feel fine with the value but aren’t all teams going to pitch around him since the rest of the Marlins blow? How will he hit 45 hrs if he may be walking all the time?
I checked out Liss blog but you have to register to post – no thanks.
By Craig D on Mar 16, 2013
Ray,
I’m really starting to get hyped on Andrelton Simmons! I know he doesn’t walk much, but he makes good contact and has gap power. His glove will keep him in the lineup despite slumps. Any chance he has a Jeter type year in 2013???
100-10-55-20-.290
That’s easy top 10 for SS
By Ray Flowers on Mar 16, 2013
Lawn Gnome – I’d not take Stanton in the top-15, probably not top-20 either. Liss thinks he is going to hit .290 with 45+ homers this year. I do not agree.
I think you are totally right with HanRam too.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 16, 2013
Craig D – Simmons could reach the numbers you listed, but that’s a HUGE season for a rookie. It’s way more than I would be expecting from a guy with less than 50 games in the bigs.
By Polo on Mar 17, 2013
I think Ray & I are the only 2 people who love HanRam in the 2nd round this year lol…. I do understand that some people feel burned by him. However,its all about production. Last year was supposed to be a “down” year for him. I love his potential for a good season in that lineup. No other SS can give u those #’s AND qualify at third.
Now he’s back @ short, where he wants to be. Should be a good season 4 him
By Scott o on Mar 18, 2013
Have the first overall pick ! Who would you take ?
By Ray Flowers on Mar 18, 2013
Scott O – My articles, my draft guide, my twitter account… I’ve been saying Braun since before the 2012 season. Still saying Braun now.