Fantasy Baseball: Player Volatility
March 15th, 2013 | by Ray Flowers |
Sometimes people miss the point. We’re all guilty of this (even the great Oracle isn’t always understanding of everything that is presented to him). In this piece I thought I would try to explain a few things that might be missed when people look at players and try to discern what is going on with their value.
There is no certainty in baseball. Yes Albert Pujols always hits 30 homers with 99 RBIs (has every year from 2001-12). Some day that run will end, just like it has for a guy like Mark Teixeira who went 30-100 each year from 2004-11 before injuries limited him to 24 homers and 84 RBIs last year in 123 games (he’s not likely to get there this season either due to his wrist injury). Injuries play a huge part in whether or not players live up to expectations.
A player’s personal life can impact his game. Did he sleep well? Did he get in a fight with his wife? Is his kid sick? Did his lawyer steal money from him? Players are people too and they are all dealing with the same things we all do on a daily basis.
Hopefully all of those things were obvious to you. Now let’s dig a little deeper into some other points that are often overlooked.
Wins and loses, and I say this all the time, come and go. Cliff Lee was a top-15 starting pitcher last year in terms of his skills, but he won six games with a 3.16 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Ricky Nolasco won twice as many games, 12, and his ratios were 4.48 and 1.37. There’s just no way to know how the record will play out. I think most folks get this one.
What about saves? As I’ve noted elsewhere, the man who leads baseball in saves the past three years – Jose Valverde – doesn’t even have a team to call home right now. Moreover, only three men in baseball have had 20 saves each of the past four seasons (Valverde, Huston Street and Jonathan Papelbon). Are you really sure you can predict which closers are “locks?” I think most folks get this one too.
What about homers? A guy goes from 30 homers to 20 and people freak out. Would it surprise you to learn that both numbers fall within the realm of imminently possible for a 25 homer hitter. Think about it. That’s a +5 or a (-5) in either direction. That 25 homer guy hits 30 one year and 20 the next his two year average is… what do you know, 25. Take the case of Nick Swisher. Over the past seven seasons he has averaged 27 homers a season with a high of 35 and a low of 22. That’s a spread of 13 which, if you divide by two gives you 6.5. Add that to 22 and your at 28.5. Subtract it from 35 and you’re at 28.5. Take a look at his year marks while keeping in mind two things, (1) that 27 average homer mark a season and (2) he is about as consistent a bat as there is in the game: 35, 22, 24, 29, 29, 23 and 24. Another way to look at his situation is to saw that he has FAILED to reach his seven year average four times in the past seven years.
What about batting average? This one is a tough to understand for some folks. We can talk about BABIP and line drive rates all we want, but let’s keep things simple and take a look at Dexter Fowler. In 2010 he hit .260 and people were disappointed. In 2011 he hit .266 and people were disappointed. In 2012 he hit .300 and people were happy. As I noted we can point to the .390 BABIP as a major reason his average went up, but there is also this – what about random luck/chance?
In 2010-11 Fowler averaged 460 at-bats a season. He had 454 at-bats in 2012, a virtually identical mark.
In 2010-11 Fowler averaged 121 hits a season. In 2012 he had 136 hits.
Fowler obviously had 15 more hits last season than his average the previous two years. The baseball season is 26 weeks long. That means in 2012 Fowler had an average of 0.58 more hits a week than he did the previous two seasons. That’s it folks. Barely half a hit difference per week over the course of the season led to Fowler’s average going up almost .040 points. Forty. A grounder off the tip of a glove here. A bad break by an outfielder on a ball hit in the gap. Hitting the ball an eighth of an inch lower on the barrel of the bat there. Barely half a hit a week over the course of the season changed his average by nearly .040 points. The point is that a .280 hitter could just as easily hit .260 as he could .300, even if you don’t want to hear or accept that fact. Remember that when you bail on a guy because his average dropped the previous season. Don’t just discount a guy until you do some digging to find out what is really going on with him.
In closing hopefully something in this piece resonated with you. We focus on numbers in baseball, especially in fantasy baseball, but sometimes the raw number don’t tell the whole story.
* Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Albert Pujols, Cliff Lee, Dexter Fowler, Huston Street, Jonathan Papelbon, Jose Valverde, Mark Teixeira, Nick Swisher, Ricky Nolasco
By Mr Hat on Mar 15, 2013
Hey Ray
First let me start with a great line I heard yesterday “innocuous knocks to the noggin”
And the point was so true. Major or mild Concussion, bottom line is it’s a concussion or to be more blunt/specific it’s a brain injury. Maybe if we called it what it is: A mild traumatic brain injury and it might affect how his brain works works for a while, maybe people would get it. Because when we call it a mild concussion people probably think “oh, probably just a bad headache or something for a few days”.
Lol, to note your Swisher case case above. Isn’t that how avg. works? You will always be below your avg half the time, that’s what makes up the avg. Half the times above it, half the times below is what makes up that avg. I assume that’s what you were getting at. Peoples perception.
However, in regards to Swisher, I have to assume he’ll fall below his avg this year playing for Cleveland.
- Mr Hat
By Nick Bonnett on Mar 15, 2013
Amazing article, as always Ray.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 15, 2013
Mr. Hat – I don’t know where my overflowing use of vocabulary came from. Chalk it up to a moment of clarity. So many people just slough off concussions… we should know by now not to.
Perception is a tricky thing…
By Jonny on Mar 15, 2013
Radical Idea but what do you think of dropping Home Runs and replacing it with Total Bases? We already dropped average for On Base. You OK with this move or do you think should let it be? To me total bases makes more sense
By Ray Flowers on Mar 15, 2013
Jonny – Going from HR to TB is OK since you dropped average. In traditional a home run helps (1) AVG, (2) HR (3) RBI, (4) Runs. One hit boosts you in four categories. A bit overkill, right?
In my Draft Guide I argue to replace WHIP with ABA which focuses on total bases and not hits.
http://baseballguys.com/category/fantasy-draft-guide/
By Brian on Mar 16, 2013
Hi Ray,
I looked back a little ways and didn’t see one, but have you done a player profile for Brandon Belt for this season? What are your thoughts on him? Would you want a $10 Belt as your starting 1B in a 10 team NL only auction keeper league($280cap)? 5X5 H2H OB% in place of AVG.
Thx!!!!
By don fisher on Mar 16, 2013
Ray–nice draft at #3 slot. I’m at #5 in 12 team head to head. McCutchen or Kemp ? Both have had injuries which one would you take? Thanx in advance for your help.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 16, 2013
Brian – I have not done a write up on Belt, but I’ve been thinking about doing one so I’ll likely get to him.
I think he’s got enough speed upside that he could squeeze into the top-12 if everything went right, but he’s still best drafted as a corner infield option in mixed. In your setup, with OBP, he’s worth $10 easy.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 16, 2013
Don Fisher – I’d go McC who is the healthier player right now. What injuries are you talking about with McC?
By don fisher on Mar 16, 2013
Ray –I had read somewhere in the last two weeks he has some knee problems but then on another site he wants to run more this year. Who do you believe? Thanx again.
By holyWahoos on Mar 17, 2013
I’m budgeting $20 for Dunn, hope it pans out. Wins being unpredictable, we start 3 SPs a week (points league, usually start two-start pitchers for the week) and wins are where are all the points are at (15 points), with Ks being 1 pt and then bonuses for quality start, C.G., N.H., etc.. What’s your strategy in a league like this? Ignore the studs? Taking Cliff Lee last year for $40+ killed me in this league. Save the money and just target players on good teams? Thanks again, Ray!
By David Syvertson on Mar 17, 2013
Hey Ray,
HUGE FAN. Love your insight and your passion in which you give your opinions. I recently signed up for the draft guide through FanDuel and am waiting to get it and have you help me win my 2 upcoming drafts:) Thanks again!
DVSYVERTSON
By jon on Mar 17, 2013
Hey Ray,
I read your post about not knowing how to advise since you don’t know the people in our league: it was very informative. As such, I only wanted to ask you about Rds 1-2 in my format, where generally the same crop of players would be available since not many picks have gone off the board. I have picks #5 and #16 in a 10-team 6×6 roto redraft league with these settings:
R, HR, RBI, AVG, OPS, SB
ERA, WHIP, K/9, QS, SV, IP
I’m thinking either Cano or McCutch at #5 and then JUpton or Wright/Beltre at #15 if they are there. It’s ESPN so I’m going off their ranks.
What would your ideal #5 and #16 be in this format? Thanks for the guide and happy drafting!
By Jarpen on Mar 17, 2013
Fun reading, Ray
Quick dilema I have: 14-team mix, $260 auction. I have D. Murphy @2B for $4. His health is a bit of a concern, do I keep him at that price? 14-team league I could get him back, if needed, for that price, and throw him back, no?
By Ray Flowers on Mar 17, 2013
Don Fisher – McCutchen is fine. He says he’s going to run more. He really needs to be more discerning (too many caught stealing). I think 25 is possible.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 17, 2013
holyWahoos – Are you in a $260 lg? I would NEVER pay $40 for an SP with that much $ available. $20 for Dunn is too much as well. 15 pts for a win is awful (most leagues use 10). There’s no way to predict wins, so having so much value in them really stinks (as you noted Lee pitched great last year, but killed you with his six wins).
By Ray Flowers on Mar 17, 2013
David Syvertson – Good to hear. If you still haven’t gotten it, send me your paypal receipt at fantasyfandom@yahoo.com. Might want to check your spam folder too.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 17, 2013
Jon – I like your first round options. If JUP is there I like that a lot. I would NOT be taking Beltre or Wright at 15th overall, that’s simply way too early for me.
I’m not as high on Beltre as everyone else, and Wright’s health setback would make him more a third round selection in your format.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 17, 2013
Jarpen – I have no problem keeping him at that price. I know I would bid more if he was up at auction.
By don f. on Mar 17, 2013
Ray, knowing your feelings on paying for saves–just wondering what your opinion is now of Kimbrel after his performances in the WBC. Is he still the best bet for saves and Ks ?? Thanx for your input.
By holyWahoos on Mar 17, 2013
Ray, $260 is correct. Last year was my first year in the league and I got sucked in when I saw top tier starting pitching going for a lot. I was hoping to spend $20-$25 this season on my top pitcher, looking at the likes of Gallardo or Samardzija.
$15 to $20 is too much for Dunn? This is the points league where he finished as a top 6 first basemen last season. I’m expecting to get him for less, that’s just the max I’d go.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 17, 2013
Don F. – No handful of games, in either direction, is going to change my overall opinion of a player. Shouldn’t for anyone really.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 17, 2013
HolyWahoos – Your lg might have diff scoring, and if so Dunn can be pushed that high if that’s how he finished last year cause he should be able to pretty much approximate his performance.
By Ralph on Mar 17, 2013
Ray, thanks in advance. Quick question. Keep forever, but always wanting to be in position to win now. I see Jackie Bradley is likely to break camp with the Red Sox. I picked up Bogaerts as a late round stash (deep bench), but am now thinking maybe drop him for Bradley. What do you think? Thanks!
By Ray Flowers on Mar 17, 2013
Ralph – If keeper forever go Bogaerts. Better all-around talent, and he also plays a more premium position.
By Ralph on Mar 19, 2013
Hi, Ray — quick add/drop question if you would, please.
H2H 6×6 TB & OBP I/o AVG. punting SB. Drop Eaton and add Moss? Thank you as always. Love your work.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 19, 2013
Ralph – I don’t think you can drop Eaton. Someone in your league would want him. The hype is really high. Trade him well before you drop him.
By Ralph on Mar 19, 2013
Ray — I’m punting steals, not saves. I will look around to see about dealing him. what do you think about Eaton+BJ Up for Hamilton in this format? Thanks!
By Ray Flowers on Mar 19, 2013
Ralph – My bad on the steals/saves thing.
To me, that offer is too much.
By KBthree on Mar 19, 2013
Hey Ray – Just drafted this weekend for a 5×5 standard roto. It’s a 5 keeper league, keep forever. What do you think about the trade Carlos Gomez/Alex Cobb – Receiving Weaver/Marte? I’m thinking I really like the pitching help, but worried CGomez is going to continue what he started second half last year. Thoughts?
By Mike on Mar 19, 2013
Hi Ray
keepers due tomorrow. 5×5 Can keep only this year.( 10team) 14 positional and 9 SP, with min innings on Pitching 1650 also with 10 bench spots.
Down to Wright 17, Aaron Hill 1 Cain 16, Wainwright 9. Fifth keeper Lucroy 1 ( 2 catchers)Fowler 2, Nathan 3, wilhelmsen 1, Bruce 23,or aoki 1. Past email you suggested Lucroy 1 or Nathan 3, I added a few other options since.
Thx Very much, look forward to your opinion !!!
By Ray Flowers on Mar 19, 2013
KBthree – Do it. Marte is as talented, if not more, than Gomez, and obviously Weaver beats Cobb. Gomez can’t hit. All he does it try to slug homers. He never takes a walk, strikes out too much, and has no discipline. I’m not a fan even with his HR/SB skill set. Simply, he’s not a very good offensive player.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 19, 2013
Mike – No wrong keepers here. I’d hold on to Nathan. Honestly, if it was me and I was feeling like taking a risk, here would be my 5:
Nathan, Wilhelmsen, Fowler, Aoki, Hill = I mean, those five guys cost $8. That’s insane. I’d then have TONS of cash to kill the draft. But that would be risky given that a bunch of players will be kept.
By Jason Hastings on Mar 20, 2013
You summary on Fowler and the half-a-hit a week reminds me of Bull Durham, “a seeing eye ground ball!” Classic! Its true, ever since I saw that movie I’m reminded of that misconception. An extra base hit a week will make you a HOFer. Good stuff, sir.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 20, 2013
Jason Hastings – Love that movie.