Player Profile: Albert Pujols
March 18th, 2013 | by Ray Flowers |
Albert Pujols will be in the Hall of Fame one day. He is one of the most consistently excellent hitters that that the game has ever seen (only Alex Rodriguez, with 13, has more consecutive seasons with 30 homers and 99 RBIs than Pujols who is at 12 and counting heading into the 2013 season). Pujols is third all-time in MVP Shares (6.90) behind only Barry Bonds (9.30) and Stan Musial (6.96) thanks to three MVP awards and 11-straight years in the top-10 in voting (he fell to 17th last season). Pujols is also 2nd in WAR – everyone’s favorite new measure even though less than one percent of people know how to figure it out – among active players according to BaseballReference.com. Pujols is also going in the top-10 in virtually every fantasy baseball draft this season. I’m going to burst that bubble and let you know that Pujols’ just isn’t the lock he once was, despite the prevailing wisdom, to return his draft day cost. I know Mike Trout is amazing, and the addition of Josh Hamilton to support Pujols is huge, but folks, there is skills slippage with Mr. Pujols.
Let’s start the bashing right off the top, shall we?
Pujols has seen his batting average go down, down, down. Here are his batting average marks the past five years: .357, .327, .312, .299 and .285. That’s four straight years of a declining batting average. Moreover, his .292 batting average the past two years is 28th in baseball and .033 points below his career mark.
Pujols has seen his OBP go down, down, down. Here are his OBP marks the past five years: .462, .443, .414, .366 and .343. That’s four straight years of a declining OBP. Moreover, his .354 OBP the past two years is 38th in baseball and .060 points below his career average.
Pujols has seen his SLG go down, down, down. Here are his SLG marks the past four years: .658, .596, .541 and .516. That’s three straight years of a declining SLG. Moreover, his .528 SLG the past two years is 11th in baseball and .080 points below his career average.
Are you nervous yet? All three of those categories are well above big league average and still very solid marks, but the consistent decline the past few seasons should, at the very least, give you some pause that Pujols is a lock as a top-10 fantasy selection in 2013 (truth be told, I don’t have Pujols as my first or second ranked first sacker this year in my rankings. You can find a link to those rankings at the bottom of this piece in the Draft Guide link).
Some further disturbing trends.
Pujols has averaged 34 homers the past two seasons after averaging 41 homers his first 10 seasons. He’s also dipped from an average of 123 RBIs and 119 runs over the first decade of his career to an average of 102 RBIs and 95 runs the past two seasons.
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Pujols, from 2001-10, posted a walk rate in the double-digits every season. The last two years that mark has been 9.4 and 7.8 percent. To put that last number in perspective, in 2008-09 his walk rate was 16.3 percent more than doubling his mark from 2012.
From 2003-09 Pujols had a K-rate in the single digits. In two of the past three years that mark has been 10.9 and 11.3 percent. The 11.3 percent K-rate from last season is his worst mark since his rookie season back in 2001.
In each of the past three years Pujols has failed to reach his career average with his HR/F ratio. He’s also had three of the four lowest marks of his career the past three years. A career 19.2 percent HR/F ratio has fallen to 18.3, 18.3 an a career worst 14.0 percent the past three seasons.
Pujols hasn’t reached his career 19.0 percent line drive rate since 2008. That’s 4-straight years of less than his career average with his line drive rate (you have to be noticing the trend by now).
His rate of swinging at pitches out of the strike zone continues to increase. A career 22.9 percent mark in this category has swelled to 27.5, 31.8 and 36.4 percent the past three years. That’s a pretty scary increase. As a result, pitchers are throwing him less strikes than ever before. Not only did he see a career low 43.1 percent of pitches in the strike zone last season, he’s failed to see his career average of 47.8 percent each of the past five years.
If you believe his birth certificate, Pujols is 33 years old, an age where some regression is to be expected. Therefore, I’m not the least alarmed at the picture I’ve painted above. What we are seeing here is normal. The problem becomes not his declining production but the expectation that Pujols is somehow going to recapture his past glory. ‘But Ray, with that great lineup around him in Anaheim, surely you think Pujols has another great season in him.’ I would say he has another season in him of excellent production. Is that production first round type of stuff in the fantasy game given the clear downturn in so many of his measures? I’d say the answer to that question is – maybe. Pujols is a lock to be productive if healthy, and I’m not saying he’s going to be Chris Davis in 2013, but I’m merely pointing out that your expectations have a better chance of being reached if you look at the Pujols of the past two seasons and remove thoughts of the .330-40-120-115 guy we are used to seeing at the dish – especially since his knee is still giving him all kinds of trouble.
* Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, Barry Bonds, Chris Davis, Josh Hamilton, Mike Trout, Stan Musial
By Princivalli on Mar 18, 2013
Ray
In regards to Pujol’s declining walk rate and increase in the amount of balls he is swinging at, what do you suppose is the cause of such declines? Is it a matter of an aging player no longer having the bat speed and therefore guessing more and starting his swing earlier? Or is it more a case of pitchers no longer fearing him as much and being more likely to challenge him especially early in the count?
I guess I’m also wondering are those more indicative of age or is something a player can reverse even in their 30′s?
By Polo on Mar 18, 2013
In your draft guide, you have Seager for $11. In one of my Yahoo leagues, he also qualifies at 2B. Do I bump him up a couple bucks? Also, would he be a better fit for 2nd? I have a 16 team H2H draft Sunday. Thx
By Vince on Mar 18, 2013
Hi Ray. Hope all is well.
Okay so we selected our keepers and our draft is next week. I kept M Holliday and E Andrews. I have the 1st, 3rd and 6th picks in the upcoming draft since I only kept 2 players. With that being said, here is a list of who will be available. Could you help me out with who to take?
Beltre, Reyes, J Upton, Y Cepspedes, A Jones, J Ellsbury, P Goldschmidt, B.J Upton, A Gonzalaz, B Zobrist, A gordon, M Cabrera, M Bumgarner, Grenkie, Darvish.
Thanks as always,
Vince
By Vince on Mar 18, 2013
Hi Ray,
I forgot to mention this is a H2H Points. We have 2 Utility spots so I could play E Andrews and Reyes for example. Thanks
By Mike on Mar 18, 2013
Morning and enjoyed the article on Pujols. That leads me to a general gripe I have Ray and maybe you can comment on it.
Given the immense number of fantasy baseball sites, pundits, and the 24 hr/day Fantasy Sports Channel….
I am amazed of the overall lack of daily detailed position battles and roster moves columns. If there is a site that covers this subject by team on a daily basis I’d sure like to know about it.
Sure all the sites have the transaction feeds. I get that. Personally I appreciate the articles on Pujols, Weaver, Halladay and their issues. But for me, I wish someone/some site could have a daily summary of say the who will be the 5th SP for Mlw, Stl, etc especially given the rise of the larger rosters in the NFBC and others.
Anyhow just an observation in general. And I’d like to add I used your auction values for the first time Sunday and found it very helpful.
Mike
By Ray Flowers on Mar 18, 2013
Princivalli – It’s both, and no, those kind of trends don’t usually reverse. Players can walk more as they age, their understanding of the strike zone certainly can improve, but ultimately the body just can’t do what it once did. With Pujols, we’re not talking 3 months either. It’s been years of decline. Not likely to bounce back in 2013.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 18, 2013
Polo – Seager can easily be bumped a handful of dollars if he’s also 2b eligible, which also makes him MI. Totally worth doing in a 16 tm league (you could even go up to like $17 in your format).
By Ray Flowers on Mar 18, 2013
Vince – I assume you meant Elvis Andrus?
JUp, Reyes, BJUp are who I would be targeting with your top-3 picks.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 18, 2013
Mike – Glad the auctions values helped to serve as a guide for you.
The truth is, we will talk about whatever people want us to talk about. Over the last month, do you know how many questions I’ve got about the 5th SP for the Brewers? ZERO. I’m answering, literally, hundreds of questions a day and I haven’t heard that one once. If people asked, I’d cover it more closely.
A place that doesn’t have articles per se but can help.
http://www.mlbdepthcharts.com/
I also wrote this article today dealing with some positional battles – http://fantasyalarm.com/rounding-the-bases-position-battle-updates/
By Mike on Mar 18, 2013
Thanks Ray,
Yeah that proabably wasn’t the best example!!!
But referring to the position/roster battles each team has on a daily basis in one place.
Where then the players involved could be discussed for the value/merit of adding them to fantasy rosters especially in deep leagues like the NFBC.
And there is some value in the various 5th SP battles for various teams again in deeper leagues.
Thanks for the link Ray. It looks VERY INTERESTING and perhaps what I may be after. Appreciate it!
By jon on Mar 18, 2013
Hey Ray,
I’m starting at a 2nd round pick at #16 in my 10-team 6×6 roto redraft league that adds OPS to the usual cats. I’m hoping for JUpton, but would you be okay with Hanley in that spot if Jup is gone? I’ve never owned him and I couldn’t glean from the Draft guide what your read on Hanley is, other than #1 SS.
Do you like him to bounce back or see continue injury plague? And would you be happy with him at #16 overall in this format?
thanks. one week to draft!
By Ray Flowers on Mar 18, 2013
Jon – HanRam is fine by me. If you listen to my radio show, I talk about HanRam virtually every day. If you go through the Fantasy University section on the site, you’ll also see I’m drafting him a lot.
Injury prone? The last seven years he’s played less than 142 games only once. He’s not injury prone at all.
By Chris C on Mar 18, 2013
What do you think of Puljols trade value right now. What kind of SP could i get for him?
By Ray Flowers on Mar 18, 2013
Chris C – There is no way I can answer that. Some might see him as the #6 pick. Others #13. If dealing him, you’d be targeting an SP1.
By Polo on Mar 18, 2013
I have the #1 pick overall in a 10 league- H2H. We are starting keepers this season( get to keep 3 next season). Do I pick Trout or Miggy/Braun?
By Ray Flowers on Mar 18, 2013
Polo – Braun for me.
By Polo on Mar 18, 2013
that’s would I did. thx
By Polo on Mar 18, 2013
*what
By Don on Mar 18, 2013
Hi Ray, with the 3 pick and Cabrera gone I take Braun over trout, but what if Braun is also gone? Kemp? Cano? Votto? McCutchen?
By Ray Flowers on Mar 18, 2013
Don – Any of the players you listed is fine depending on how you want to build your ballclub. No wrong answer there. My draft guide has all the players ranked – http://baseballguys.com/category/fantasy-draft-guide/
I like McC.
By Adam on Mar 18, 2013
Love your show! 5×5 mixed 12-team standard 23 players
Would you keep Vmart @ $6 (util only) and lose the flexibility of having this spot at your auction? What about Niese @ $8? Holland @ $10?
By Jason on Mar 18, 2013
As a die-hard Cardinal fan, I am glad to say I got to see Pujols play for my favorite team in his prime. I do remember watching him in his last couple of seasons in St. Louis, and the most alarming thing for me was his batter’s eye was completely gone. It shows with the amount of pitches he swings at outside of the strike zone lately.
I’ll still wear my Pujols jersey proudly in STL (unlike some fans in the area). He is an amazing player, but the numbers don’t lie… he’s on the decline. At “33,” he’ll only see those numbers decrease, not increase I believe. I’m just glad the Cards didn’t overpay for him when his contract came up (although he could’ve been a God in St. Louis had he stayed…)
By Ray Flowers on Mar 18, 2013
Adam – Thanks for listening to the show.
VMart should be a C. However, if only UT cuts his value, though still solid at $6. I dont love losing the spot for auction, but worth it at that cost.
Niese and Holland are good to hold on to (either Holland though you might be able to get Derek for less depending on lg).
By Ray Flowers on Mar 18, 2013
Jason – Yeah, those HUGE contracts veterans get rarely end pretty…
By Chris C on Mar 19, 2013
In my 12 team keeper league…15 keepers i was gnna offer something like this..
Pujols/Rollins/Beltran or Hart/1st rd pick/2nd rd pick
and Id get
Price/J Upton
What do you think?
The guy has no SS andwould need a rf to replace Upton
And i have Segura and Rizzo to replace ss and 1b
Id be losing talent at 1st and ss but have a starting rotation of Weaver/Latos/Price/Samarjida/B. Anderson.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 19, 2013
Chris C – 1st and 2nd round picks are like 180, 195 overall. Not overly exciting. I’d be inclined to do the deal to get Price, JUp. Both are special keepers.
By Ben on Mar 19, 2013
So in a standard H2H 12 team mix league, where do you draft him? Do you put him behind these guys?
Cargo
Kershaw
Tulo
Stanton
Verlander
By Ray Flowers on Mar 19, 2013
Ben – I wouldn’t draft the pitchers ahead of him. I would draft CarGo ahead of him without question. Pujols/Stanton/Tulowitzki is where the debate begins.
By don f. on Mar 21, 2013
Ray– I had targeted HanRam with the 20th pick in my 12 team league. And I am aware of your pitching later preferences; but is Strasburg an unique player to justify the choice or is Reyes or Heyward a better value ? Thank you for your help.
By Tom on Mar 21, 2013
Ray, Thanks to you and Kyle for an awesome interview with George Thorogood. I now know my playlist for tonight as I read your baseball guide for about the fifth time as my final prep heading into my auction this weekend.
Tom
By Ray Flowers on Mar 21, 2013
Don F – Would have liked HanRam there too. Shoot.
I wouldn’t take Strasburg there. Reyes or Heyward are better options.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 21, 2013
Tom – Bad to the Bone and The Oracle… toss in a brew and you are set.
By Jim Santos on Mar 21, 2013
Hi Ray, I just signed up for an account at FanDuel for the sole purpose of receiving your draft guide. Does FanDuel automatically contact you to inform you of new accounts or is the process automated?
On another subject, would you mind using your influence at XM Radio to convince the format producers to include a players avg. auction value, as well as avg. ADP, when doing the “Fantasy Fix” updates? My long-time auction draft-advocate colleagues and I are feeling slighted.
Thank you.
Jim
By Ray Flowers on Mar 22, 2013
Jim Santos – Everything is hand sent by me. I’m in NY right now for TOUT WARS.
1- Check you spam folder.
2- I dont see your account. Send me a copy of your receipt to fantasyfandom@yahoo.com
I’ll also pass on your suggestion.
By Jeff(AKA Kay's Dream Guy) on Mar 28, 2013
Hi Ray, I’m a bit confused with your stance on Pujols, based on this article it seems as if you feel his numbers will continue to slide and you rank him behind Votto and Fielder, but in your guide you have him listed as AL MVP prediction. Am I reading that wrong or am I missing something?
Thanks, Jeff
By Ray Flowers on Mar 28, 2013
Jeff(AKA Kay’s Dream Guy) – Players often win MVP cause team does well. Also, HR and RBIs very important historically. If Pujols goes .285-35-120 and Angels make playoffs, he potentially wins MVP. Is that up to expectations for where he is being drafted? Don’t think so. Fantasy MVP totally diff than real world MVP.
By Jeff(AKA Kay's Dream Guy) on Mar 28, 2013
Ahh..I see what your saying..I was thinking since you were saying they history shows his numbers will continue to fall, and last season he finished 17th in MVP, that based on those two he would need to improve on his numbers from last season.