2013 Livin’ The Fantasy Draft
March 19th, 2013 | by Ray Flowers |
And the fantasy baseball drafts just keep on coming… Kay Adams and I hosted the Livin’ the Fantasy Draft for SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM87). The league consisted of myself, Kay, Kyle Elfrink, two producers (Drew Phelps and Phil Backert), and six listeners (one was unable to make it). That means we had a shallow 11 team, mixed league draft that we took part in. I had the #2 selection in the draft, and here is how my team turned out.
C: Carlos Santana (7th round), Victor Martinez (8)
1B: Kevin Youkilis (19), Kendrys Morales (24)
2B: Rickie Weeks (9), Martin Prado (6)
3B: Ryan Zimmerman (4), Manny Machado (21)
SS: Jose Reyes (2)
OF: Ryan Braun (1), B.J. Upton (3), Shin-Soo Choo (5), Dexter Fowler (13), Cameron Maybin (23), Drew Stubbs (25), Michael Brantley (28)
STARTING PITCHERS: Yovani Gallardo (10), Mat Latos (11), Brandon Morrow (12), C.J. Wilson (15), Dan Haren (16), Tim Hudson (22), Edinson Volquez (26)
RELIEF PITCHERS: Joe Nathan (14), Joel Hanrahan (17), Kenley Jansen (18), Steve Cishek (20), Vinnie Pestano (27)
It’s a two catcher league, and with the two talents I saw sitting there in the 7th and 8th rounds I thought to myself what the heck, do something you normally don’t due and roster two potentially elite options at catcher.
First base is an area of weakness relative to the rest of my team. Still, I’m confident that my duo of Youkilis and Morales will be able to hold their own at the spot, even if I’m just treading water there.
Weeks fell in my eyes, so I was more than willing to dive into the pool in the 9th round. Injuries are always an issue, but per 162 games for his career here is Weeks line – .251-23-67-107-20. Yeah, I know right? Prado qualifies at OF, 3B, 2B and SS in this league. I know he shouldn’t, but you have to play to your leagues rules. He offers excellent cover up the middle, at the corner, and in the outfield. I love him as my middle infielder right now. Speaking of up the middle, Reyes is a strong contender to lead shortstops in fantasy value in 2013.
Zimmerman’s shoulder keeps passing all the tests this spring, and he seems well on his way to another traditionally impressive effort at the hot corner. Machado in the 21st was a shocking fall actually. Kyle Elfrink, my co-host on The Drive (5 PM EDT, Monday-Friday) pointed out something very interesting. Rookies like Wil Myers and Jurickson Profar are on everyone’s must draft list. A youngster like Machado, who is just as talented, simply isn’t because he played last year and only did so-so. The perception is that Myers/Profar are worth the risk this season but Machado is only blah. Folks, Machado is a dynamic talent who has a starting job with the Orioles. That should mean more than it does to some.
Braun is still my #1 guy, PED junk be damned. Upton is a great #2 outfielder. Choo is a great #3 outfielder. Fowler is a great #4 outfielder. Maybin/Stubbs/Brantley equals a great #5 outfielder.
On the hill I waited on starters, shocking I know, and yet again proved you can do well following that strategy. Gallardo and Latos are top-20 arms in my eyes, and Morrow is right on the edge of that as well. My 4th starter is Wilson, and I have a lot of faith in him rebounding this season (see his Player Profile). My fifth is Haren, and I have a lot of faith that he will rebound this season (see his Player Profile). My sixth starter is Tim Hudson, you know the guy who has averaged 16 victories with a 3.19 ERA and 1.16 WHIP the past three seasons. My seventh starting arm is Volquez who has a 200 K season in his back pocket, has filthy stuff, and pitches half his games in Petco Park.
In the pen, some strong arms as well. Nathan and Hanrahan are top-10 closer types, and Cishek is a strong 3rd closer. I also added Jansen, that guys arm is as good as any in baseball, and Pestano who is one hell of a hurler himself (he’s also potentially going to get some 9th inning work if Chris Perez isn’t 100 percent by opening day).
It’s an 11 team league, having one less team in the mix certainly opens up the player pool for sure, and who knows about injuries, but looking at this squad I really don’t think I have an obvious weakness.
Oh, and here are the results of an NL-only draft that we held on The Drive which you can hear Monday through Friday at 5 PM EDT on Sirius 210. XM87.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: B.J. Upton, Brandon Morrow, C.J. Wilson, Cameron Maybin, Carlos Santana, Dan Haren, Dexter Fowler, Drew Stubbs, Edinson Volquez, Joe Nathan, Joel Hanrahan, Jose Reyes, Kendrys Morales, Kenley Jansen, Kevin Youkilis, Manny Machado, Martin Prado, Mat Latos, Michael Brantley, Rickie Weeks, Ryan Braun, Ryan Zimmerman, Shin-Soo Choo, Steve Cishek, Tim Hudson, Victor Martinez, Vinnie Pestano, Yovani Gallardo
By wesley on Mar 19, 2013
Whats up Ray,
Whats up with Erasmo ramirez? I heard he is getting sent down to minors? If i heard wrong would you drop him for Nolasco? i only have 25 moves for yr though, is Erasmo worth it ?
Thanks again
By Ray Flowers on Mar 19, 2013
Wesley – Ramirez has a 1.50 ERA and better than 4:! K/BB ratio this spring. The Mariners would be stupid to send him down. However they might give retread Jon Garland the final spot in the rotation which would be a mistake. I’d still be taking Ramirez late, though Nolasco is a passable option.
By costaricanchata on Mar 19, 2013
wouldn’t call hanrahan a top 10 closer type .
across the inter-webs , he’s being ranked in the 15-17 range .
not even sure he keeps his closer role in beantown past the ASB . hopefully for you , he does .
kendry morales in the 24th round is probably THE steal of the draft .
seen him ranked as high as 135 , but usually in the 150-175 range .
don’t like volquez (he’s burned me too many times) … but in the 26th round , why not ?
liking this team a lot , if braun is able to play 150 games .
By Ray Flowers on Mar 19, 2013
Costaricanchata – I don’t care how other people have Hanrahan ranked. He’s a top-10 CL for me. He’ll be fine.
ADP is just a guide. People pay too much attention to if if you ask me. I’ve never been afraid to buck a trend anyway.
No reason to think Braun won’t play 150 games at this point…
By Jensen Wolfe on Mar 19, 2013
Ray,
I first have to mention (i tried to get on the air to talk to you about it ) that players such as BJ upton, Shields, Wandy Rodriguez and hell even Howie Kendrick get passed over time and time again and Its astonishing how much the typical drafter is ignorant to the numbers these guys put up and will put up this season. I followed your guide used it round by round and think i had a flawless draft. I thank you for your insight on your guide and on the radio show as no one explains it better than you do. In fact nobody OUT there breaks players down like you do.. One of these days ill get on the air with ya but until then thank you for day to day brain candy you provide!
By Butters on Mar 19, 2013
Hey Ray
Need help with this pick
This is a 2 catcher (12 team) league, 35 man roster, and a lot of pitchers have been kept.
Currently I have:
1B- Rizzo
2B- Cano
3B- Freese
OF- J Upton
OF- Ellsbury
OF- De Aza
P- Weaver
P- Chapman
P- Romo
These are the guys on the board I’m considering. (Catchers will be extremely limited by my next pick, so might need to grab one now, might be able to grab S Perez on way back))
C- Napoli
2B- Altuve
SS- Rollins
3B- Lawrie and Prado (best 2 available)
OF- Ajax
SP- Medlen
I’m currently 4 picks away.
Can you possibly give me 4 players in order based on my current roster?
Btw: this is 5th round coming up
Thanks
Butters
By Chris Blum on Mar 19, 2013
Hey Ray,
So I was the first pick in this draft! Ya I know Trout was a risk but what the heck I’m not playing for second. I like your team, you got me a few times grabbing a player I was hoping would fall back to me, but that’s the nature of the beast.
I really like my team, it’s my first time playing in an inning capped league so I did get a little nervous and grabbed Cain and Lee in the 4th and 5th. But overall, I think I have a lot of upside and feel like I will be able to stay in the hunt throughout the year. I look forward playing with everyone and testing my skills against the pros. Thank Ray for all the help.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 19, 2013
Jensen Wolfe – Sometimes slow and steady wins the race, agreed.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 19, 2013
Butters – I would take Napoli over Perez. Assuming you have MI/CI and 5 OFs…
Rollins, Altuve, Prado, AJax, Napoli, Lawrie make sense given your roster.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 19, 2013
Chris Blum – How could someone who follows me go with Trout! lol
Nothing wrong with your two SPs of course. At least you waited to back them up, but maybe a big too long? We’ll see about Miller, Ogando. Detwiler kinda wasted pick, but Cashner has that huge arm if he can stay healthy.
By Chris Blum on Mar 19, 2013
I know but I Trout passes the eye test for me. I try to find a good balance between the cyber metrics and my gut feelings. Sometimes I am correct, sometimes I crash and burn haha. I not expecting Trout to put up the same numbers but what if he goes 290 25 110 75 40 Those are similar to Justin Uptons 2011 numbers plus 19 more sb’s. Although your right that is not top 3 numbers but still solid.
By Larry King on Mar 19, 2013
I had wanted to grab Machado but he was taken in the 12th round of our draft (we protected about 80 players of various levels). I like the Jensen pick!!! Prado in round 6? I don’t feel as bad about Prado in round 5 given the keeper situation in my league. Closer went really late there, nice value for sure.
I am really down on Volquez but given when you got him and the K’s it isn’t too bad… The walks can be a killer.
Funny how Stubbs always goes so late even with (as you said) the fact that he is good for around 80 runs, 25 bags, 10+ HRs. Nice value late if you need someone to plug in for that catgory and not be like Revere and no HRs or RBIs possible
By Scooter on Mar 19, 2013
Hey Ray, was wondering if you could provide a little feedback on the team I just drafted? Always tend to practice patience with SP but a few players slipped so I found myself going after them as they presented value compared to ADP. A little concerned that the back end of the rotation might be weak. Possible adds to replace any SP include Jaime Garcia, Ogando, James McDonald and Erasmo Ramirez. its a 12 team mixed league 5×5 roto
C – Miguel Montero(13th)
1B Goldshmidt (6th)
2b – Brandon Phillips (8th)
ss – everith Cabrera (15th)
3b – ryan zimmerman (5th!)
OF – McCutchen (1st)
OF – J Upton (2nd)
OF – Jose Bautista (3rd)
Util – michael bourn (9th)
Util – Adam Eaton (12th)
SP – Bumgarner (4th)
SP – James Shields (7th)
SP – Dan Haren (10th)
SP – Matt Harvey (11th)
SP – Matt Fiers/AJ Griffin
RP – Cishek
RP – Houston Street
By AndyH on Mar 19, 2013
Hey Ray,
I drafted with the Holy Bible (Baseball Guys Draft Guide) and Talmud (Baseball Prospectus) at my side. Even though I didn’t have much prep time, I think I have a dynamite lineup.
I waited patiently for pitching, and wound up with starters Lester, Kennedy, Sanchez, and Hell-boy. Due to a DL opening, I’ve got room for one more starter, and I’m looking at Cashner, Luebke, and Erasmo Ramirez. Ours is a 10×10 redraft mixer with 15 teams. Cats (in addition to the usual) are L, NetSaves (instead of gross), Holds, K/BB, H/9, QS. I’m thinking Cashner, as he’ll be valuable in a relief role as well. Most of the best set up guys are already taken, due to league priorities.
Any advice?
Andy
By Ray Flowers on Mar 19, 2013
Larry King – Prado was only taken in the 6th round here… because on Yahoo he qualifies at 2b, 3b, ss, an of.
Why is everyone down on Volquez? I took him 28th overall. He had more K’s last yr than Cueto, CJ Wilson, Baily, Sanchez, Lester, Josh Johnson etc. ALSO — he had a 2.95 ERA and 1.29 WHIP with 99 Ks in 100.2 IP at home. .
By Ray Flowers on Mar 19, 2013
Scooter – Very thin lg. Should be 14 hitters and nine pitchers, not 10 and 7.
As such, your team should be very good.
Eaton/Cabrera/Bourn very week in power. Might be playing some catchup there.
Fiers/Griffin… obviously you didn’t get, or dont believe in my rankings, cause I have McDonald above both your last two SPs, and Ogando ahead of Grffin as well.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 19, 2013
AndyH – Luebke is gonna miss half the year. Ramirez, I like a lot, but there is a chance he starts the year in minors. Cashner has the best arm, but he’s always hurt. Your staff could use a upside arm. Give Cashner a shot.
By Joe on Mar 19, 2013
Hey Ray ~ after reading yesterdays player profile on Pujols I’m going to have to reconsider my first round pick.
As a end of the draft flier what do you think about Matt Carpenter? Do you think he’ll get enough AB’s to be worth a pick up? I’ve had great luck with cardinal hitters in the past.
Thanks!
By Jordan on Mar 19, 2013
Hi Ray. I’ve noticed in your drafts you seem to take Gallardo and Upton a lot. Is this coincidence or do you think they have some upside that most people aren’t recognizing?
By AndyH on Mar 19, 2013
Ray,
You’re the most responsive writer in the fantasy world. Thanks for taking the time. Draft Guide was by far the best of those I’ve purchased – 14.95 is a bargain. If you don’t buy this before your draft, you’re missing out.
Listen to The Drive every night on my 1.5 hour commute and after. I’ll let you know how I’m doing during the season.
“Andy in New Hampshire”
By Ray Flowers on Mar 19, 2013
Joe – Yep, some issues with Pujols, right?
On Carpenter check out my article here – http://fantasyalarm.com/rounding-the-bases-position-battle-updates/
By Ray Flowers on Mar 19, 2013
Jordan – I posted these notes on twitter today.
“Choo last 3 healthy yrs = .290 & 19/21 — BJ Upton last 3 yrs (23/36). I dont know what you’re downing them for.”
“Gallardo inconsistent? How many SPs have won 14 games with 200 Ks last 3 yrs? Two. Verlander/Gallardo.”
You can see more on BJ Upton here – http://baseballguys.com/2012/12/03/player-profile-b-j-upton-2/
By Ray Flowers on Mar 19, 2013
Andy H – Thanks for saying that. I probably spend far too much time doing this, but I’m here for my peeps!
Glad you are enjoying the Guide too. I know it’s a bit different than others out there, but I think it’s pretty unique.
Thanks for the support.
By Don on Mar 19, 2013
Ray, on the turn early in the third is it wise to reach for Cespedes (#27 pick)? thanks and the draft guide rocks
By Polo on Mar 19, 2013
I know in the guide,you have Kuroda over Niese. With the Yank offense not @ full strength & with the upside of Niese,you would now take Niese over Kuroda?
Basically,I wanna trade Kuroda for Niese. Or should I stay put?
By Andrew on Mar 20, 2013
12 team H to H, 5×5 categories…lineup as follows:
C M. Montero
1st Freeman
2nd Zobrist
3rd Trumbo
SS H Ramirez
OF Braun, Harper, Choo
Util Morse, Gardner
Bench Machado, Bonifacio
SP Darvish, Shields, CJ Wilson, Minor, McDonald, Fiers
RP Holland, Balfour, Frieri, League
Feel good in general….Fowler is on waivers who i typically own for late round upside…should i pick him up for anyone? Like my bench guys bc they r infield fill ins, but worth dropping mcdonald or fiers to grab him to see if he starts hot at coors? Or just leave it be? Thanks Ray!
By Ray Flowers on Mar 20, 2013
Don – That’s early for me. It’s also early based upon ADP if you put much stock in that. Cespedes has an ADP of 36, but it is climbing – http://hosted.stats.com/mlb/adp.asp?pos=all
By Ray Flowers on Mar 20, 2013
Polo – If I have Kuroda over Niese in the Guide, why would I take Niese over Kuroda? If I felt there was enough reason to take Niese over Kuroda, I would change their rankings. They are close, but I would go with the old guy.
By Polo on Mar 20, 2013
Ok, thanks Ray. I just asked because of Grandy & Tex injuries. The Yank lineup isn’t as good as in past years
By Ray Flowers on Mar 20, 2013
Andrew – I’d take Fowler over Bonifacio. How is Trumbo a 3B? Only eight games there last season – you’re lucky with that one. For more on Bonifacio see – http://fantasyalarm.com/rounding-the-bases-position-battle-updates/
By Ray Flowers on Mar 20, 2013
Polo – What does an offense have to do with taking a pitcher from that team?
Wins-Loses are beyond a pitchers control, always have been. Worry about how many runs a team is gonna score doesn’t help if your trying to evaluate pitchers. Besides, it’s not like the Mets are going to win 90 games this year.
By Polo on Mar 20, 2013
LOL( very funny…especially since I’m a Met fan) but you’re right. I need to just stick w/the plan
By Jeff aka Kay's dream guy on Mar 23, 2013
Hey ray..regarding the two rookies from last season, Trout and Harper…in a 12 team 5×5 league, how far would Trout have to fall before you drafted him and what’s the earliest that you would draft Harper?
By Ray Flowers on Mar 23, 2013
Jeff aka Kay’s dream guy – For me, Trout is right at the end of the first round. Harper, end of the 2nd round. At that level, I wouldn’t get either guy though.
By Jeff(AKA Kay's Dream Guy) on Mar 27, 2013
Hi Ray,
I don’t know if you’ve answered this before, But in a regular snake Roto draft, what is your favorite position to draft from and why? Would it be top 3 to lock up one of the first few guys or do you feel more comfortable drafting later and have better results then?
By Ray Flowers on Mar 27, 2013
Jeff(AKA Kay’s Dream Guy) – In a standard redraft lg, I like pick 8/9. That gets me Votto, Fielder or CarGo, and on the way back I have my choice of a ton of diff directions to go in.
By Jeff(AKA Kay's Dream Guy) on Mar 28, 2013
Awesome, I like that spot because I think I could get Jose Bautista in rd 2. Have you done a player profile on him or is he someone your not targeting on draft day?
Speaking of draft, mine is tomorrow and so far through all the mocks I can’t bring myself to take pitching early and usually end up with a rag-tag staff.
Who is the worst pitcher that you would feel comfortable with as the #1 on your pitching staff this season? Would it be someone like Gio Gonazalez, Max Scherzer, or Zach Grienke?? Or would you be willing to wait longer and have Haren, Lincecum, or Morrow as your #1 ace?
By Ray Flowers on Mar 28, 2013
Jeff(AKA Kay’s Dream Guy) – Bautista doesn’t steal bases, he’s a .260 hitter, and he may or may not qualify at 3B in your lg. Not a target of mine.
It’s not about one ace… it’s more about getting two of the top-20. If you got two of those three, fantastic. I’d want at least one of that level before hitting the next.
By Jeff(AKA Kay's Dream Guy) on Mar 28, 2013
Thanks Ray, I’m gonna do it..If I have to go pitching rds 4 and 5 or rds 5 and 6 and wait on my catcher target Santana, so be it!
Both my leagues are on Yahoo, so I think Bautista is only an OF. They are OPS leagues though where he normally is over .900 OPS due to his ability to draw walks like Votto and Fielder. That’s why I thought he might be valuable.
I see your point though, I should probably focus on 5 category stars with my first few picks like McCutch, Cargo and Kemp.