Player Profile: Josh Rutledge
March 20th, 2013 | by Ray Flowers |
When is 277 at-bats enough to determine the value of a player? If you have followed my work for any appreciable amount of time you will know that I’m a big fan of sample sizes. By that I mean we need to have enough data at our fingertips to be able to adequately assess a player’s outlook. For me, 277 at-bats, a half season of work, isn’t nearly enough to paint a fully developed picture of what is going on with a player. For others though it seems like 277 at-bats is plenty. Take the Curious Case of Josh Rutledge…
A third round selection in the 2010 MLB Entry Draft, Rutledge played his college ball at the University of Alabama. He appeared in 11 games at Low-A ball in 2010, then 113 at High-A in 2011 before appearing in 87 games at Double-A before he received his call up last season due to the injury to Troy Tulowitzki. That means Rutledge has 211 games and 855 at-bats of minor league experience on his resume, and just 87 games worth above A-ball. Normally I would be telling people they are crazy if they think that’s enough work for a guy in the minor leagues cause it ain’t much. In those less than 950 plate appearances Rutledge hit .320 with a .374 OBP and .496 SLG. Those numbers play in any league of course. He also had 22 homers, 110 RBIs, 154 runs scored and 31 steals. To say he was a dynamic performer is an understatement. Remember though, only 356 at-bats above A-Ball.
When he was called up last year by the Rockies Rutledge hit .274 with a .306 OBP and .469 SLG. The fact that his numbers regressed from the minor leagues is totally normal. While the SLG was impressive for a middle infielder, there are some concerns with the other two numbers. Admitting that 277 at-bats is nowhere near enough to make a definitive call on anyone, I’m going to be even more obnoxious and shrink things down even further by looking at his season by month.
July: .381/.394/683 (63 ABs)
August: .317/.333/.598 (82 ABs)
September: .209/.266/.304 (115 ABs)
October: .118/.118/.176 (17 ABs)
I know the same size is extremely small but each month his AVG, OBP and SLG went down.
There is also this; Rutledge hit .247 with a .279 OBP in 81 at-bats against lefties.
Piling on.
Rutledge only took nine walks in 291 plate appearances. Nine. That’s atrocious. He also struck out 54 times leaving him with a simply pathetic 0.17 BB/K mark, well under 60 percent off the big league average. Ugh is right.
Though he went deep eight time in those 277 at-bats, Rutledge hit a total of one home run over his last 37 games. He also had a 31 percent fly ball rate, some four percent below the big league average, and that doesn’t exactly paint him as a big time home run threat despite the suggestion that his hot start last year has put into folks minds.
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To review.
Rutledge has one season of experience above Single-A ball.
His performance at the big league level tailed off dramatically as the season wore on.
He’s not likely to be a 20 homer threat even with a full season of at-bats.
It’s unclear if he can improve upon his .274 batting average from last season given his terrible plate discipline and struggles versus lefties.
Now you know the negative. Now a few big positives.
(1) He will play half his games in Coors Field.
(2) He will enter the year qualified at shortstop after appearing in 57 games there last season. With Tulowitzki back Rutledge will be the Rockies’ second baseman giving him strong positional flexibility.
(3) Though he may not be a 20 homer threat, 15 big flies seems doable. Also, he possesses speed. Josh was 7-for-7 last year in steal attempts with the Rockies, and he swiped 14 bases in Double-A before he was called up. The end result being that Rutledge has a shot at a 15/15 season from either the shortstop or second base position in fantasy.
It seems to me that there are more concerns than outright pluses here, but I appear to be in the minority. I’m a fan of Rutledge, don’t get me wrong, but I think his current ADP of 10th at the shortstop position is totally bonkers. People love youngster and the possibility they bring, but I just can’t understand why anyone would take Rutledge ahead of a guy like Alexei Ramirez who has been a solid big league hitter for five years (their ADP has them being take about 35 spots apart). Maybe Rutledge lives up to expectations this year and has that 15/15 season with a ton of runs scored with the Rockies, but I’d prefer a guy with 2,800 big league at-bats like Ramirez over a guy who doesn’t even have 280 at the big league level, especially when that youngster failed miserably for half the time he was in the big leagues (don’t forget that over his final 32 games last season that Rutledge hit .197 with one home run, 10 RBIs and two steals). It’s amazing to me, always has been, at how people are so willing to take a shot on something new and flashy while totally discounting something that is a bit worn in.
* Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.
By Ray Flowers
By Morgan on Mar 20, 2013
Hey Ray,
Bought the draft guide and just had my draft last night…went very well.
I am the commissioner of my league and I changed the roster this year to add in a 2nd catcher. Not until the draft did everyone start complaining and calling it “the worst thing ever.” I told them all expert’s league have it but they are saying it ruined the league….what should I say?
-thanks and btw first 5 rounds I got braun, pedroia, hanley, BJ, and starlin.
By Nokwurst on Mar 20, 2013
Ray,
Completely agree w/ you on Alexei, got him very late in a draft as backup SS, where’s the love from everyone?
Billy Hamilton is on the wire in this league, where we keep 4 players (potentially forever.) Is it crazy to pick him up now and stash? How much of a gamechanger do you see him being?Only issue is I’d prob have to drop Moustakas, my 3rd 3B. (Yeah, this league’s not the deepest.) Oh, and it’s 5×5 H2H (wish it was Roto.)
By Steve Davis on Mar 20, 2013
Agreed. Its unreal how hyped Rutledge has been this year. Will not be on any of my teams. I, like Morgan also have your guide and had my draft last night and it looks eerily similar. LOL. Miggy, Hanley, Pedroia, BJ and Darvish. 12 team league. And in 6 and 7 got your boy Austin Jackson and Scherzer. Your the man Ray. Thanks!
P.S. Less than a minute after my draft ends one of my buddies screams out Hanley is getting an MRI on his thumb. FML..LOL
Also. My 3 closers are Axford, Perez and Veras. Should I jump off a bridge tonight?
By Ray Flowers on Mar 20, 2013
Morgan – Glad your draft went well with the Guide in your back pocket.
2nd catchers are the “standard” in the industry, have been for years. Honestly, I can’t remember the last time I played in a league where we used one catcher. It’s like there should be five outfielders, a CI and MI. Your league can do whatever it wants, but it just seems to me that the best way to go about things would be to follow the conventions that the rest of us do the vast majority of the time.
Honestly, talk about drama queens… how can adding a second catcher ruing the league? Ridiculous.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 20, 2013
Nokwurst – Hamilton is likely to spend a good portion of the year in the minors, so adding him right now is a huge risk. There really is no need for three third basemen, but Moose has a lock down job and should be productive. I personally would have a hard time dropping him.
Hamilton has little power, and really is a so-so hitter. He does have 50+ SB upside, potentially even more as you are aware.
All really depends who is on your keeper list.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 20, 2013
Steve Davis – HanRam, reports suggest, should be OK. No definitive right now, but it appears that everyone is just being safe. That’s the hope.
Axford and Perez should give you 70 saves. Veras is a risk, but there is no debating he has a big arm.
By Morgan on Mar 20, 2013
Ray,
Well my friends are drama queens lol. We have a 1400 inning limit and my starters are Shields, Scherzer, Morrow, Anibal Sanches, Niese, Hellickson, and Marcum with Hanrahan and Kenley Jansen as my relievers. What strategy do you use with 1400 innings and starters as to maximize K’s while at the same time keeping whip and era relatively low at the same time of searching for wins?
Thanks Ray,
Morgan
By Ray Flowers on Mar 20, 2013
Morgan – There is no real strategy for me. I always start my top guys. You can bench if a cold streak comes, but eventually 1/2/3 of your SPs will end up on the DL, and that certainly helps to manage innings. You should be fine without major reworking of innings.
By Nokwurst on Mar 20, 2013
Ray,
Yeah I’m trying to move one of A Ramirez/Moose.
Good point: For this year I kept Bautista, JHamilton, Butler, & Lee, also have potentials in DBrown, Harvey, Howard…so it’d be tough for BHamilton to crack that.
Thanks for smacking the kool-aid cup out of my hand.
By jcutiger on Mar 20, 2013
Rutledge has a much better lineup spot. Hard to get excited over Ramirez – his OPS was .652 in 2013 and has never been close to his high of .792 5 years ago.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 20, 2013
Jcutiger – I’m not saying get excited about Ramirez, that wasn’t the point of any of this piece. If you can read this piece, and still have full confidence in Rutledge, pretty surprising to this kid.
By JooBo on Mar 25, 2013
Would you trade Brandon Mccarthy for Rutledge?
By Ray Flowers on Mar 25, 2013
JooBoo- I got no problem dealing McCarthy to get Rutledge.
By Mike on Apr 7, 2013
What about dealing Garcia for Rutledge, yeah or nay?
By Ray Flowers on Apr 8, 2013
Mike – If you want to deal Jaime Garcia for Josh Rutledge. Go for it.
I ranked Holland in the Guide. Solid arm, don’t know if breakout is coming, but solid.
Herrera has a huge arm. Hardest fastball in baseball last yr. Lot’s of grounders too. Has a great, power arm.