Player Profile: Nelson Cruz
March 21st, 2013 | by Ray Flowers |
A forgotten player, that’s what we could call the Rangers’ Nelson Cruz. A power hitter that used to have speed, Cruz has lost his ability to steal bases due to continuing leg issues, and Josh Hamilton is no longer his running mate now that he has signed with the Angels. Because of those factors Cruz rarely is mentioned when talks get around power hitting outfielders (check out his current ADP is seeing him go off the board with the 117th selection overall). Why should you be interested in Cruz if he falls in your mixed league draft? If you’ve got five minutes I’ll be happy to explain to you why.
Cruz went 30/20 in 2009, his first big league season of more than 307 at-bats. The sky seemed to be the limit for the athletic, power hitting monster out of Texas. Alas, he’s never reached those homer or steals totals again. Here are his marks in each category since 2009.
2009: 33 homers, 20 steals
2010: 22 homers, 17 steals
2011: 29 homers, nine steals
2012: 24 homers, eight steals
Let’s deal with the steals first.
Cruz has solid speed, and obviously knows how to swipe a bad, but the problem is that he is always seemingly dealing with some injury to his bottom half. As a result, he’s just not running anymore. The last two years he has attempted 14 and 12 steals. Remember, he went for 37 steals in 2009-10. Those days aren’t likely to come back, so 10 should be the upside of expectations with Cruz.
If you haven’t caught Arrow on the CW, I would recommend it. Solid show that’s superhero in nature but more along the lines of Christopher Nolan than Tim Burton. The show features Katie Cassidy, the daughter of David Cassidy, you know The Partridge Family guy. Well done David… on both counts.
As for the power with Nelson, it’s all about at-bats. Oddly, Cruz had a career best 585 at-bats last year and he only went deep 24 times. The previous three years, while he was averaging 28 homers a season, his average at-bat total was 445. IF he can stay healthy 30 homers seem very doable for Cruz. In fact, per 550 at-bats in his career Cruz has averaged 29 homers a season. Why did his total drop last season relative to his at-bat total? The reason can be explained with two measures. (1) He posted his lowest fly ball rate in four years at 40.8 percent (his career mark is 43.3 percent). (2) His HR/F ratio was a five year low at 13.1 percent (career 15.9 percent). Moreover, in three of the previous four seasons his HR/F ratio was over 18.5 percent. If both numbers return to ‘normal,’ as they easily could in 2013 and he stays healthy, that 30 homer season is coming.
As for the run production, Cruz is one of four outfielders to have at least 76 RBIs each of the past four seasons even though he has averaged just 480 at-bats a season (the others are Ryan Braun, Nick Swisher and Torii Hunter). Last season, with his health (159 games), he drove in a career bets 90 runners.
The batting average pretty much it what it is with Cruz. A .268 career hitter, you need to put out of your head that .318 mark in 2010 (399 at-bats) and that .330 average in 2008 (115 at-bats). In three of the last four seasons he has hit .260, .263 and .260. His career BB/K rate is 0.36. His career BABIP is .303. His career line drive rate is 16.9 percent. Nothing there suggests that he’s anything other than the batting average producer that he has appeared to be for the majority of his career.
Cruz doesn’t have Josh Hamilton to ride shotgun to this season, and that’s a concern. However, some people may take that thought too far leaving Cruz as a potentially solid add on draft day. The Rangers still have strong hitters in Ian Kinsler and Adrian Beltre, and guys like Mitch Moreland, David Murphy, A.J. Pierzynski and Lance Berkman can all hit too. It may not be the prettiest group the Rangers have ever put together, but the offense should still be plentiful in Texas. Don’t reach on Cruz, you won’t have to given his ADP, but if you need some power in the outfield and the pickings are starting to get a wee bit thin, don’t forget that if Cruz can repeat last seasons games played total that a run at 30 homers and 100 RBIs isn’t at all out of the question.
* Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: A.J. Pierzynski, Adrian Beltre, David Murphy, Ian Kinsler, Josh Hamilton, Lance Berkman, Mitch Moreland, Nelson Cruz, Nick Swisher, Ryan Braun, Torii Hunter
By wesley on Mar 21, 2013
Hey Ray, whats going on?
12 team 30 man roster roto league categories.
i was offered freddie freeman and justin upton for albert pujols and cain? whats you think?
thanks again
By Ray Flowers on Mar 21, 2013
Wesley – I’d do that. I love Cain, but I think you get the best player, Upton, and Freeman is a very solid replacement for Pujols.
By Butters on Mar 21, 2013
Hey Ray
Thank you, got the updated kit in time yesterday for the draft. I feel like my draft went sort of like the first one you posted. 10 guys must have been swiped right before me, specifically mid – later round pitching (and a few hitters like Fowler and Pence) I also could have gotten B.J Upton in the 4th if not for Ellsbury as my keeper.
Problem was I traded all my top keepers last year to try and win (I ended up placing). In this draft I had to draft a pitcher in the 3rd round since over 25 pitchers were kept and if I didn’t get someone there my ace would have been C.J Wilson with not much else.
I don’t love my team, but I think it’s pretty well rounded without any real holes. I think I need some more power, and will need to find some pitching off waivers as the season goes.
12 Team, 35 man roster, 6 keepers 7×5 league (R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG. OBP, SLG — W, K, ERA, WHIP, SOLDS)
Whats your take on the team?
C- R. Martin
C- J. Montero
1B- Freeman
2B- Cano
SS- Alexi Ramirez
3B- Freese
MI- A. Simmons
CI- Rizzo
OF- J. Upton
OF- Ellsbury
OF- De Aza
OF- Prado (qualifies at MI, CI, 3B, and OF)
OF- Ethier
Util- Belt
Util- Eaton
Bench- Pierre
Bench- Reimold
Bench- Gattis (30th round)
Bench- Matt Adams (31st Round)
Bench- Olt (32nd Round)
Bench- Gose (35th Round)
STARTERS:
J. Weaver C.J Wilson Fiers Edw Jackson
Wandy Minor Marcum Nicasio Shelby Miller
RELIEVERS:
Romo Chapman Frieri McGee Clippard
One more draft to go (tonight)
Thanks again for all the help
Butters
By Ray Flowers on Mar 21, 2013
Butters – Catchers are passable. Strong at 1B. SS is ok. 2b is terrif. OF Solid. Lots of late talent in OF, but who knows if they get enough PT this year to matter.
SP are solid, but underwhelming. Miller might be in minors. Marcum having some shoulder issues. Minor/Fiers not much track record. Nicasio solid arm, but need to see it.
STRONG pen.
By Butters on Mar 21, 2013
Fair take on it, kind of how I feel about it as well. Feel like I could have gone with a little more depth at other positions besides outfield with the late round rookie picks.
I WILL get BJ Upton in tonights draft
By gov on Mar 21, 2013
Hey Ray, can you please tell me if there any where i can see an example of a roto team you drafted via auction with amounts each team paid for the players. Also, will you being involved in the tout wars draft for the mixed auction in Sirius on Saturday
By John Roberts on Mar 21, 2013
With Hanley out 8 weeks – how far does he drop on your board?
By John on Mar 21, 2013
Ray in a points league and drafting 9th or 10th. How do you feel about going 2 pitchers back to back like a Verlander, Kershaw. Then going 2 bats later. What do you think. Thanks.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 21, 2013
Gov – I will be doing the 15 team mixed auction at Tout Wars on Saturday, the 23rd.
Most of the drafts I’ve done to this point have been snakes.
I was in AL LABR which is an auction – http://baseballguys.com/2013/03/04/al-labr-2013/
For full player values ($) see my Draft Guide – http://baseballguys.com/category/fantasy-draft-guide/
By Ray Flowers on Mar 21, 2013
John Roberts – Hanley falls just outside the top-10 at SS.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 21, 2013
John – I did just that… posted the article on it over a month ago:
http://baseballguys.com/2013/02/12/mock-draft-talking-pitching-early/
Was a 5×5 lg, but same basic strategy.
By JFT on Mar 21, 2013
Thoughts on my team? It’s a 12 team roto w/ standard 5×5 cats.
C – Lucroy (20)
1B – Encarnacion (4)
2B – Pedroia (3)
3B – Beltre (2)
SS – Jeter (16)
MI – Aaron Hill (6)
CI – Konerko (10)
OF – Kemp (1) Crawford (13) Crisp (15) Hart (17) David Murphy (23)
UTIL – Morales (14)
BN – Juan Pierre (24)
P – Wainwright (5) P – Sabathia (7) P – Lester (8)
P – Josh Johnson (10) P – Romo (11) P – Holland (12)
P – Frieri (18) P – Cobb (19) P – Teheran (21)
BN – Sergio Santos (22) BN – Kazmir (25)
By Ray Flowers on Mar 21, 2013
JFT – Like your top-2 SP, and lester/johnson nice depth as 3/4. Holland is a passable #5. Behind them, spotty.
Jeter needs a backup. Morales boring. Pierre/Crisp a bit redundant, but fine adds.
By Adam on Mar 21, 2013
Hey ray I have the 6th pick in a new keeper league. Points league. I’m leaning towards Verlander. What are your thoughts and if you like Verlander who would you target second round. 10 team league btw sorry. Thanks.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 21, 2013
Adam – I would not target a pitcher in the first round, especially in a keeper lg. Just too much injury risk for me.
By Griff on Mar 21, 2013
Ray,
I bought the Draft Guide back on Feb 1st or 2nd. With all of the injuries I was wondering if there was a way to get updated values (for the 3 rankings spreadsheets) as of today?
Thanks!
By Ray Flowers on Mar 21, 2013
Griff – The Guide is updated daily. The directions on what to do are on the same page that you used to order it initially – http://baseballguys.com/category/fantasy-draft-guide/
By Jim Santos on Mar 22, 2013
Hi Ray, what’s the turnaround time on the draft guide delivery?
Thank you,
Jim
By Ray Flowers on Mar 22, 2013
Jim Santos – Usually about six hours. This weekend though I’m in NY for TOUT WARS.
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