Injuries & Accusations
March 22nd, 2013 | by Ray Flowers |
The 2013 major league baseball season is about to begin, so now is a great time to touch on two topics that are in the news on a daily basis – injured players and those that might be guilty of PED use.
WORKING WITH THE INJURY BUG
Corey Hart. Curtis Granderson. Mark Teixeira. Chase Headley. Hanley Ramirez.
All those players have significant injury concerns that will cost them one, possibly two months of the season (maybe even more in the case of Tex). The general reaction is to run away from those players immediately and not even bother looking at them on draft day. Is that the right way to look at this situation? Let’s use the case of HanRam.
Hanley was injured while playing third base in the World Baseball Classic (another reason to get rid of the event?). He tore a ligament in his right thumb and will be out of action two months as he needs surgery. Gone are his chances at being a top-25 player this season as he will miss a third of the season. So we just forget about him, right? Not so fast. Follow me here.
HanRam will likely be able to play 2/3 of the season this year. Let’s assume last year’s numbers are his baseline. Ramirez hit .257 with 24 homers, 92 RBIs, 79 runs scored and 21 steals, numbers by the way that are his worst in a full season at any point in his career. He played 157 games last season. Let’s say he plays 105 games at that level this season. If he were to do that here would be his fantasy line: .257-16-62-53-14. Those numbers still wouldn’t be awful for a shortstop if you were in a 12 or 15 team league, and they would certainly be solid for a middle infield option. But remember this salient point – while Hanley is out of action you will have an open spot in your lineup to fill. Let’s say that you roster Alexei Ramirez who you plan on starting until Ramirez returns. Let’s say that Ramirez plays 50 games for you while Hanley is shelved. Per 162 games in his career Ramirez has gone .276-17-77-77-14. How does that pro-rate over 50 games? Take a look: five homers, 24 runs, 24 RBIs, four steals
Let’s put the two players together.
HanRam (105 games): .257-16-62-53-14
Alexei (50 games): .276-5-24-24-4
TOTAL: .263-21-86-77-18
* The batting average is the .257 average of HanRam from last season and the .276 career average of Alexei giving 105 games to Hanley and 50 to Ramirez which equates to 156 hits in 594 at-bats.
That’s darn near a 20-90-80-20 effort.
Make sure you don’t discount players too quickly just cause they are injured. You still might be able to get strong numbers from a position if you are smart about what you pay for the assets that will fill those spots.
ACCUSATIONS – SHOULD THEY CHANGE YOUR OPINION?
I don’t know who will break the law tonight.
I don’t know who broke the law in the past.
I don’t know who is cheating or has cheated.
Neither do you.
I bring this up cause I get the question every single day, multiple times, about when to take Ryan Braun. My response is always the same, even if it’s misguided – he’s the #1 guy on my board. ‘But Ray, didn’t you read Jeff Passan’s piece about how major league baseball is targeting Braun in what seems to be a very aggressive and over the top manner?’ Of course I read the article. I wouldn’t have linked to it otherwise, and it does disturb me that MLB appears to be on a witch hunt to get Braun. But for now I’m not going to draft based on fear. I KNOW there are players in the majors right now who are cheating. You know it too. The problem is we don’t know who those players are. Do you pass on drafting a guy who gained 12 lbs of muscle over the winter? Do you pass on a guy because some vague/unsubstantiated rumor suggests that there is a possibility that something may have happened in the past? You certainly can choose to do that. However, as I led off this section with, none of us knows what is going on behind closed doors.
Maybe a guy is doing recreational drugs.
Maybe he boozes too much.
Maybe he beats his wife.
Maybe he’s going through a painful divorce.
Maybe his child is sick.
Maybe his parent died.
Maybe he’s got an illness that he’s hiding.
On, and on, and on…
The point is, playing the “what if” game gets us nowhere. We all have to admit that every player, every single one of them, comes with risk. If you feel Braun is too much of a risk because of the PED cloud, then pass on him. Realize though that Miguel Cabrera has an alcohol problem. Mike Trout can’t repeat what he did last year and has one season of big league experience. Robinson Cano is without Alex Rodriguez, Curtis Granderson and Mark Teixeira. Matt Kemp & Joey Votto are coming off surgery… they all have issues folks.
* Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.
By Ray Flowers
Tags: Alexei Ramirez, Corey Hart, Curtis Granderson, Hanley Ramirez, Joey Votto, Mark Teixeira. Chase Headley, Matt Kemp, Miguel Cabrera, PEDs, Robinson Cano, Ryan Braun
By Fish on Mar 22, 2013
one other quickie Ray – didn’t see Dan Haren listed in the draft guide NL only values. $13 a good #? Thanks.
By nokwurst on Mar 22, 2013
Ouch, Ray, wish you’d posted this 12 hours earlier.
I had a draft last night, #1 pick. Instantly I think “Braun, yes!” Then I take a casual look on the web and see mention of MLB’s desire to nab him, so I talk myself out of Braun and go w/ Cabrera. Really hope I don’t regret this…
Side note: I nabbed CJ Wilson & Markakis again, 3rd time in 3 drafts. Hope you’re right about both of them this year!
By Brian on Mar 22, 2013
Good Luck Ray in Tout Wars Mixed League draft. Please rank these keeper options for 5X5 NL auction league($280) OBP in place of AVG.
Already keeping JUpton(35), Bruce(26), Harper(9) and MadBum(20).
Gio $28
Utley $13
Scutaro(elg at 2b,ss,3b) $5
Fowler $7
Belt $10
Thank YOu!!!!
By Ray Flowers on Mar 22, 2013
Fish – Haren is listed at $15.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 22, 2013
Nokwurst – Nothing wrong with taking Cabrera. Don’t sweat it, totally fine.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 22, 2013
Brian – Fowler, Belt, Utley, Scutaro, Gio.
By Aaron on Mar 23, 2013
Great Article Ray. I have one question that nobody seems to address when talking about guys coming off PED suspension. IF say Braun gets suspended for 50 games AND he actually is using some sort of PED, whether its admitted or not, I would have to imagine he stops using during his 50 game layoff. Now if those PEDs were helping him reach his elite numbers, why should we expect him to return to those numbers when he returns, supposedly cleaned up? We dont know when he started using so how can we use his past numbers as a guideline to his post suspension numbers. Personally I will be drafting Cabrera first overall based on his consistency. Even if he starts “Poppin Bottles” again he was pretty darn good when he was an admitted alcholic. Totally different than a PED. Thanks again and good luck in Tout.
By Aaron on Mar 23, 2013
I could really use some help here and I couldnt fit this into 140 characters.
I have taken over a team in a friends keeper league and I have never done keeper before. Its a 5×5 10 team H2H league. 13 hitters, 9 Pitchers. 1 Catcher league. 7 Keepers but if you dont keep anyone you just get early draft picks. I have discarded most of the garbage but I find myself with some borderline keepers and I want to know if I should roll the dice and not keep anyone or are any of the following players are worth keeping as a top 70 player.
Victor Martinez C eligible, Freddie Freeman, Ike Davis, Desmond Jennings, Jason Kipnis, Jon Papelbon, Mat Latos, Mariano Rivera, Jon Lester
Thank You
By Ray Flowers on Mar 23, 2013
Aaron – Ryan Braun has been the best hitter on the field since he was five years old. Pretty sure he wasn’t juicing back then. People often make too big a deal out of PEDs’ effects on some players. They didn’t make McGwire, Clemens or Bonds elite — they already were. Same thing with Braun. This isn’t Bobby Estalella we’re talking about.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 23, 2013
Aaron – If you dont keep guys, you will likely never catch up. Hold on to – Freeman, Jennings, Kinpnis, Latos, VMart at least. If you wanted to add Mo or papelbon, that’s ok too.
By Jonathan on Mar 23, 2013
Ray,
Love the radio show. Question for you…What are your thoughts on a Tulowitski and Headley for Jose Reyes and Chapman? I’d be getting Tulo and Headley. Saves is one of 12 scoring categories in the league, I currently have 5 closers all of which can be in the starting lineup every day. My 3rd basemen are Lawrie, Prado, P. Alvarez, and I’ve got Zobrist and Prado both SS eligible (not that I agree Prado should have SS eligibility), just to give you a bit of a background.
Thanks
By holyWahoos on Mar 23, 2013
Ray, extremely nervous about my pitching. Finished first auction draft of the year today: 14 team keeper league, total points, weekly lineup locks (start 3 SPs a week, 1 RP).
*Scoring* [ Hitting: 1 pt = single, RBI, sb, bb, hbp, run 2 pts = double, 3 pts = triple, 4 pts = home run, 10 pts = cycle ] [Pitching: 1 pt per k, 2 pts = shutout, 3 pts = QS, CG, 5 pts = perfect game, 8 pts = save, relief W, 10 pts = no hitter, 15 pts = win]
Lineup:
C = Wieters, 1B = Homser, 2B = Pedroia, 3B = A. Ramirez, SS = Castro, OF = Bautista, Trout, B.J. Upton, DH = Konerko, Reserves = Fowler, Profar, K. Seager
SPs = Wainright, Ryu, S. Miller, Blanton, E-Jax, Cashner, Capuano (mistake nomination)…RP = M. Rivera
Should I look for pitching immediately or feel it out? Beachy is on waivers and my watch list, and plan on dropping Capuano on Monday to get the rights to Oscar Taveras for $1. Everyone is set at 3B, but waiting for someone’s third basemen to fall-through is an option and then trade Ramirez for a SP. Thanks for any input you provide, Ray!
By Polo on Mar 23, 2013
I have an auction draft tomorrow(16 team h2h). Beside the guide, do u have any other tips for such a large league?
I’ve read the guide at least 5 times already lol
By holyWahoos on Mar 23, 2013
Ray – FYI, my league above is not head to head, just total points on the season.
By Mark on Mar 23, 2013
I think you mean to say trout probably won’t repeat last year. The fact that he has shown the ability to put up the stats he did last year means it is possible to do it again
By john on Mar 23, 2013
hey ray in a middle of a 10 team points league draft..its a keeper league, just want your thought so far..i had pick 6 out of 10//thanks
Kemp-1
mccutchen-2
cain-3
zobrist-4
wainwright-5
allen craig-6
By Jordan on Mar 24, 2013
Hi Ray, unrelated question. Sorry. Do you think Goldshmidt is worth the hype? I need a filler until Tex comes back in my dynasty league but I’m hesitant to use my 1st overall pick to get him.
By Ralph on Mar 24, 2013
My guesses at Ray’s responses. I will play pretend expert!
John — very lucky that cutch fell to you in rd two, but you went pitching too early. The hitters you got are solid, but you should probably have six by the end of rd 6.
Jordan — Goldschmidt is better than tex, so don’t draft him thinking he is a filler for Tex. hard to know whether he is worth the first pick without knowing the other keepers in the league, or at least the keeper rules, or who else you’re keeping along with Tex. are you already locked into keeping Tex? Better off throwing him back if you can.
How’d I do, Ray? Just for laughs, we all now you’re the real expert!
By Ray Flowers on Mar 24, 2013
Mark – Not quite always the way. Ellsbury one season of 10 HRs. Mauer one season of 15 homers. etc, etc. It’s about skills, not about surface stats.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 24, 2013
John – NO idea how you got Kemp.McC – fantastic. Cain in 3rd is way too early. Great arm, but not needed in 10 tm lg. Zobrist, Waino, Craig also all early given size of lg, even though they are strong players.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 24, 2013
Jordan – Goldy is a strong option in a dynasty lg. In fact, there is every reason to say that he’s a much stronger option than Tex this year and every year moving forward.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 24, 2013
Ralph – Solid “A” for that effort.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 24, 2013
Jonathan – Thanks for the support. Tulo always injury risk, Headley out 4-6. I’d take reyes over tulo. However, there is no need to have six closers. I like the deal, but you would have to deal another closer, but you have plenty of depth at 3B.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 24, 2013
holyWahoos – You only start 4 pitchers? Is that right? Yeah, that staff is thin. You’re going to need to bolster that group. Need some more top end talent.
By john on Mar 24, 2013
thanks ray, i know dont take pitchers that early but out of 60 picks already, there are 22 pitchers taken, had to get a couple..pitchers are to valuable in points leagues
By John on Mar 24, 2013
Give Longoria Reddick and Soria
Get Craig Cashner and (Pick one, De Aza or Swisher)
We use On Base. In a Vaccum what are your thoughts? I am a little light on steals.
By Jordan on Mar 24, 2013
Yeah, I see what you mean about Goldy. Considering the ADP, do you think Belt would be a better option? That would free up my pick to take ian desmond instead.
By Polo on Mar 24, 2013
Would u pay $40 dollars for a player in a 16 team auction league?
By Griff on Mar 24, 2013
Ray,
Love your work.
12 Team, Head to Head, 6×6 (Hits and BAA)
What do you think?
I have Pedroia 2B and Moose at 3B.
Have been offered Longoria and Ackley for
G. Holland, Frieri, and Ricki Weeks.
I think I might counter and take Frieri out of the deal. I must start 3 RP and have T Wil from Seattle and could get K Jansen from LAD on waivers. Is Longoria worth it or too much of an injury risk and too much damage to my BP?
Thanks,
Griff
By Hunter on Mar 24, 2013
Ray,
I have gone through your draft guide several times, I’m having a hard time picking out the guys you really like.. In a NL Only auction, who would you be willing to maybe bid one more time and go a couple dollars over your value number… Marte and Hamels are 2 I will be bidding a few more on if I need too…
Thanks, Hunter
By Polo on Mar 24, 2013
Just finished my 16 team h2h auction draft. Let me know what u think:
budget: $260
1. (12) Martin Prado
(Ari – 2B,3B,SS,OF)
$17
2. (19) Ricky Romero
(Tor – SP)
$3
3. (21) Mariano Rivera
(NYY – RP)
$15
4. (35) Andre Ethier
(LAD – OF)
$11
5. (37) Yovani Gallardo
(Mil – SP)
$18
6. (55) Adam Wainwright
(StL – SP)
$22
7. (61) Homer Bailey
(Cin – SP)
$10
8. (71) Billy Butler
(KC – 1B)
$28
9. (76) Brett Lawrie
(Tor – 3B)
$19
10. (79) Jay Bruce
(Cin – OF)
$30
11. (87) Mike Moustakas
(KC – 3B)
$10
12. (110) Austin Jackson
(Det – OF)
$21
13. (133) Kyle Seager
(Sea – 2B,3B)
$14
14. (165) Manny Machado
(Bal – 3B)
$10
15. (188) Jesus Montero
(Sea – C)
$6
16. (192) Mike Fiers
(Mil – SP)
$4
17. (211) Shaun Marcum
(NYM – SP)
$3
18. (228) Dylan Bundy
(Bal – RP)
$2
19. (244) Jurickson Profar
(Tex – Util)
$3
20. (256) Drew Stubbs
(Cle – OF)
$5
21. (263) David Hernandez
(Ari – RP)
$2
22. (290) Sean Marshall
(Cin – RP)
$1
23. (297) Edinson Volquez
(SD – SP)
$2
24. (304) Ruben Tejada
(NYM – SS)
$1
thx
By jon on Mar 24, 2013
Hey Ray – I love my hitters, but can you give me a read on this staff in a 10-team 6×6 league that counts ERA, WHIP, QS, K/9, SV, IP ?
Bumgarner, J Zimmerman, James Shields, Lester, Hellickson and sleepers Cobb, Teheran.
My only two RPs are Boggs and Santos but there’s fodder to be picked up early in the season.
Let me know your quick read. Thanks and hope your drafts went well!
By Ray Flowers on Mar 25, 2013
John – Craig, Cashner and Swisher is a solid deal, but, you are losing the best player and not getting anyone back to play third. Given the injuries there right now, I think you should turn it down.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 25, 2013
Jordan – Valuewise Belt will likely be better than Goldschmidt, but that doesn’t mean he will outproduce him.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 25, 2013
Polo – I would pay $40 for a player in pretty much any setup if it made sense, but I generally avoid going that high on players.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 25, 2013
Griff – Weeks is better than Ackley of course, but let me ask you this – you do have a middle infield spot, right?
HOW ON EARTH IS Jansen on waivers? That’s just crazy talk.
You can do the deal and then just add Jansen, fine with that.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 25, 2013
Hunter – As the Guide states, those prices are just Guides. In almost every league there will be a whole bunch of players that go for more than I’ve listed. If you want to bump a couple of guys up a few bucks, go for it.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 25, 2013
Polo – Profar and Bundy are worth taking a shot on in a lg this deep.
Hernandez/Marshall strong setup arms.
Dont see any players you paid way too much for.
Probably gonna be a bit light on SBs.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 25, 2013
Jon – No offense, but it’s a 10 tm mixed league. Your team should always look good in that setup or you really butchered the draft.
Obviously you will have to figure out the bullpen, but your top-5 are strong. Cobb.Teheran are immensely talented, but in a 10 tm lg there’s a fair degree of risk with them.
By Polo on Mar 25, 2013
in the same league,I,ve Just been offered BJ Upton 4 Bruce. Pull the trigger?
By Polo on Mar 25, 2013
BTW,G.Blanco,Gose & Eric Young Jr are on the waiver wire
By Vince on Mar 25, 2013
Hi Ray,
I hope all is well. We had our draft last night and wanted to get your thoughts on my team, good or bad
12 team, head to head categories.
C Montero, 1b Butler, 2b Rutledge, 3b Freese, SS Reyes, OF (3 spots) J Upton, M Holliday, M Cabrera, Util (2 Spots) E Andrus, D Ortiz, Bench Pagan, Kubel, Profar, C Carter.
Pitchers: Fister, Minor, Bailey, B Anderson, Tehran, E Jackson, Cishek and I can pick up one of these guys ( Vargas, Maholm, T Hanson, Volquez)
Whats your thoughts, Thanks as always
By Ray Flowers on Mar 25, 2013
Polo – You know I’d take BJ Up over Bruce.
By Pete on Mar 25, 2013
Expectations for Colby Lewis? Worth stashing on the bench waiting for his return? (AL only 5×5)
By Ray Flowers on Mar 25, 2013
Vince – Can’t win with that staff. Talented sure, but there a lot of mid level talent, injured guys, rookies etc. You’re going to have to work there, especially since you punted saves.
Ortiz hurt. Freese hurt. Profar in the minors half the year. Rutledge I’m not sold on. Carter could hit 30 homers but bat .225. Gonna need to do some work here too.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 25, 2013
Pete – In an AL only lg Lewis is certainly worth stashing. No telling how he performs when he returns, but talent is well worth adding in lg specific setup.
By Polo on Mar 25, 2013
Thx Ray. Trade’s done
By Pete on Mar 25, 2013
In 12 team 6×6 AL only dynasty league (5 stndrd categories; 6th cat = doubles+triples).
Jackie Bradley or Aaron Hicks as a long term keeper?
By Ray Flowers on Mar 25, 2013
Pete – Bradley over Hicks, but I don’t know if either will ever become a superstar.
By Matt W on Mar 26, 2013
Ray, I just had my draft and I kept desmond, and E.E. Now I had one pick in the 2nd round pick 6 I wanted price, but he was gone so I picked up Posey. I didn’t pick again till the 6th round, let me know how you think I did with the disadvantage. thanks. 14 team league
Here is my picks in order: Posey (20), Beltran(76), Hart(93), M. Moore (102), Peavy (104), M. Moustakas (121), L. Lynn (132), R. Davis (149), Crisp (160), Burnett (161), C. Ross (177), Janssen (188), Rutledge (190), and the rest are in order after is : A. Cobb, A. Soriano, Fujikawa, Barney, Tillman, C. Nelson, Pachecho, Alburquerque, and C. Lee. Thanks. Looking forward to your input.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 26, 2013
Matt W – I dont love the Posey pick, especially since you had to wait so long to pick again. With such a wait, Beltran/Hart are an odd duo given the injury risk with both. Peacy, anotehr injury risk. Davis/Crisp are the same player, and taken early.
By Tim on Mar 28, 2013
Ray we had our annual auction Saturday night, got a little “overserved” and ended up committing Cardinal sin of Dollar for each way too soon after playing price enforcer and getting stuck with Prado at 8 then the guys I wanted I overpaid a bit and ended up like 6 for 6 which means hours of watching values go by and behing helpless. Its a keeper league $130 cap. 23 Active spot roto 13 teams – we do have limited WW when injured guys replacements get released, its usually SP and OF. Here we go:
C Posey Vmart
1B/3B/CI: Teixera, Wright, Young (Tex and Young at end of night $1 guys)
2B/SS/MI: Utley, Tulo, Ackley
OF: Harper, Choo, Gordon, Prado, Stubbs (End guy)
UT: A Rod (end guy)
SP: Kershaw, Morrow, Kennedy, Hellickson, Masterson (end of night guy)
CL: Chapman
3 Mid Reliever Upside guys I took at end of night hoping 1 or 2 end up as closers sooner than later, if they work great if they are in set up for a month, not a big deal IMO I can WW a starter for them: Santos, Fujikawa, McGee
I also own Straily and Rosenthal as minor leaguers who could contribute to the staff as well should I activate them and drop someone else.
By Ray Flowers on Mar 28, 2013
Tim – $16 for Prado isn’t awful. Don’t beat your self up over that.
Need help at 1B.
Solid up middle.
OF is solid.
SPs … not a huge fan of Masterson.