The 2013 BaseballGuys.com Fantasy Baseball Guide

Are you looking to be a Fantasy Baseball Champion in 2013 like the San Francisco Giants were major league champs last season? If so, you’ve come to the right place.

What can you look for in the 2013 Baseball Guys Fantasy Baseball Guide? Plenty. Here are some highlights of the topics that will be covered in great detail to help arm you with all the data you will need to dominate the competition in 2013.

PITCHERS
Pitchers – What numbers should you be targeting when assembling your staff?
Closers – How do you evaluate them?
Which middle relievers should you target?
Should you be concerned when young pitchers see major innings pitched increase?

HITTERS
Hitters – What numbers should be your baseline for analyzing hitters?

ROOKIES
Which rookies are likely to make a significant fantasy impact in 2013?

FANTASY GAMING
Auctions – How to rules.
FAAB – How to rules.
Top-300 – Why should you avoid using such a list?
Punting Categories – Does it make sense?
Points Leagues – How should you handle them?
Head-to-Head – Why they are poisoning fantasy baseball?
Category Targets – What levels should you be looking at?

INFORMATIVE ARTICLES
Mike Trout – Why he has no chance to repeat his phenomenal rookie campaign.
R.A. Dickey – Why he has no change to repeat his phenomenal 2012 season.
ABA – A new way to evaluate pitchers designed to replace WHIP.
SWIP – Why strikeouts and walks are so important.
PWSA – How do you compare players who are all power or all speed?
SABR Primer – What are these sabermetric measures and what do they mean?
Either/Or – Which players should you target on draft day?
Did You Know? – An article point to some interesting facts.
10 Questions – Ten must know questions are answered for each position.
Predictions – Who will win the awards in 2013?

MOCK DRAFT
Fifteen experts in the field go at it in a mixed league draft.

PLAYER CAPSULES
C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS: 50 players at each position with mixed league dollar values.
OF: 150 players ranked
Starting Pitchers: 150 Ranked
Relief Pitchers: 75 Ranked

All told over 600 players ranked! PLUS…

There are CHEATSHEETS with rankings/dollar figures for: MIXED, AMERICAN LEAGUE ONLY & NATIONAL LEAGUE ONLY LEAGUES

HOW DO YOU GET YOUR COPY?

So how do you get this whopper of a deal? There are two easy ways for you to get the more than 145 pages of data for the 2013 season (it’s actually way more than that when you add in the rankings).

OPTION #1 – Thanks to a partnership with Fanduel.com, you can get your copy of the 2013 BBGUYS Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide for just $10 (don’t forget that last year the $8 Guide was only 55 pages long). So for $2 more than last year’s Guide you not only get more than 90 pages over what you got last year, you also get FREE money at Fanduel.com. What am I talking about? When you follow the below link to Fanduel.com you will be taken to a sign-up page. Simply sign up with the site for $10. When you do you will receive two things.

The BaseballGuys.com Draft Guide.
$10 FREE dollars to spend at Fanduel.com.

So not only do you get the Draft Guide you also get $20 dollars to spend at Fanduel.com (your deposit and the FREE $10 Fanduel.com is giving you. Please note, if you DO NOT follow the link below, it could take several days for you to receive the draft guide).

CLICK HERE TO PURCHASE THE GUIDE FOR $10.

(You can have a Fanduel account already in existence and be eligible for the $10 deal, but if you have ever deposited $ into it then you are ineligible for the $10 deal. In this instance the only way to obtain the Guide would be to order it through the BaseballGuys website for $14.95)

ALSO… make sure the promo code BBGUYS is in the promo code box. It needs to manually be entered if you are ordering from your phone.

For those of you that don’t know what Fanduel.com does here is brief primer. Fanduel.com is a daily salary cap fantasy game. You go to Fanduel.com, select a lineup for that day only, and then play it out. You can do this as many times a day you as like keeping the same lineup if you like or changing it with every entry. When you win the daily league, and I’m sure you will win given the advice you are about to unlock with the Draft Guide, you win REAL MONEY from Fanduel.com.

So you can look at this option two ways.

A) You spend $10 to play games at Fanduel.com and get a FREE Draft Guide.
B) You spend $10 to buy the Draft Guide and get $10 FREE to spend at Fanduel.com.

Talk about a win-win.

OPTION #2 – If you prefer to purchase The Guide without the bonus’ that Fanduel is offering there is another avenue you can take.

On the right hand side of the BaseballGuys page, near the top, is a YELLOW DONATE tab. Simply click on the tab, donate $14.95 through Paypal, and The Guide will be on it’s way to you within hours.

Not enough of a deal to entice you? How about this added little bonus (I feel like someone on an infomercial).

Everyone that purchases The Guide will be able to get one free update of the player rankings (this counts whether you go through Fanduel or through BaseballGuys directly). Get The Guide now, study it, take in all it has to offer. If you’d like up updated version of the rankings at any point – and the rankings are updated on a daily basis as needed up until Opening Day – here is what you will need to do.

(1) Send me an email at fantasyfandom@yahoo.com.

(2) The email should include a copy of your receipt from PayPal or Fanduel. I’ll then send you a file with the updated player rankings right up until Opening Day.

How much better is that than going to the store to buy a magazine that was printed six weeks ago and is stale by the time your draft gets underway?

One final note. I know some of you might balk at having to pay for The Draft Guide. However, if you follow my work at BaseballGuys.com you will know that everything I do here is entirely free. So don’t just think of it as you’re buying an $10 or $14.95 Draft Guide. Think of the investment that includes a year long subscription with it as well – yet another bonus you will received for being a loyal follower of BaseballGuys.com (you should also be following the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account).

TESTIMONIALS

Here are some responses from those that purchased The Guide in 2012.

The BaseballGuys Draft guide is so Amazing I had to take the afternoon off of work to finish reading it. – @AndyNelson97

First time donating to you and this Baseball Guide is brain-candy for analytic minds. – @DaveE926

Ray & draft guide are full of it…Full of enough tips, tricks, and rankings with updates in the future to take me to the top. – @achiabotta

I won my league last year with Ray’s draft guide and advice. If you think $8 is to much? Let me tell you it is super cheap for what you get in return. – Jamie

How dare you charge $8 for your draft guide??? should be at least $18 – @rotoexpertMRath.

I am a returning member and support The Oracle & The Fantasy DRIVE on Sirius. Two years ago the Guide was $3 (I would have paid $15). Which means $8 is a complete value and will help me win three separate titles. – Scott

I sent the $8 donation to @BaseballGuys just for how accessible he is on twitter. – @AlZeidenfeld

Wanted to thank you for all your help this season, answering every question I had. I ended up winning my H2H league yesterday. Key picks taken from your draft guide: Edwin Encarnacion, Alejandro De Aza, Kenley Jansen (let everyone else fight for J. Guerra) and Paul Goldschmidt. Your draft guide also enabled me to focus on the better arms specifically in relief over the people who were named closers to start the season. Anyway, all your hard work and time you put in every single day of the season helped me win a championship. Also learned a big lesson this year how to look beyond the basic stats of a player to determine value. Thanks Again  – Joe M

*PLEASE ALLOW A FEW HOURS FOR DELIVERY.

Positional Eligibility Matters

The Tigers announced, through GM Dave Dombrowski, that Victor Martinez will not catch in 2013 as the Tigers plan to let Alex Avila and Brayan Pena handle the tools of ignorance. This decision has a whole bunch of fantasy implications that need to be investigated an understood, so I will use V-Mart as my primary discussion point on positional eligibility before listing a whole series of other players who may or may not be worth an extra bit of emphasis on draft day because of the positions on the field that they are, or aren’t, qualified for in the fantasy game.

(1) If V-Mart doesn’t catch in 2013 and only suits up at DH what does that do to his positional eligibility in your fantasy league? Usually we just look back to the previous season and see if the guy played 20 games at a position. If he did, then we just lock him into eligibility for that position. However, Victor didn’t play a single game last year after he injured his knee (he tore his ACL and had surgery. Current reports suggest that he should be good to go for Opening Day). Does that mean he will only be DH eligible in 2013, or does your league do what I think is the correct thing to do which is to look back at the last season the player actually appeared in the big leagues? If we take that tact and look back at 2011 we find that Martinez did appear in 26 games as a catcher and therefore should be catcher eligible in 2013. This is a vital question to answer – where does Martinez qualify in 2013? As a catching option Martinez is a potentially elite play. As a DH only player he’s merely a solid option. Huge difference in value as a result of where he qualifies.

(2) If he really isn’t going to catch, what happens in interleague play when the Tigers face an NL club? Obviously he isn’t going to play first base with Prince Fielder there. Does that mean when the Tigers are forced to play an “NL game” that Victor will merely be limited to pinch hitting duties? Does that negate the potential benefits he should derive from being a full-time DH since he won’t be able to start for stretches of time? Also, how will he respond to being out of the starting lineup for days at a time when the Tigers face those NL clubs? A few points to consider when it comes to evaluating the expected levels of production that one should expect from Martinez in 2013. Obviously, there’s a lot to think about with a guy like V-Mart beyond what should one be expecting from his bat (I would assume that he will return as a very impressive hitter, though what exactly that means is a tad uncertain. I’d be looking at his 2010 effort as my baseline, and in that season he hit .302 with 20 homers and 79 RBIs. Don’t forget that the 34 year old sat out an entire season last year, and that is significant even if many will try to minimize its importance).

Here are some other key players to think about in terms of how their positional eligibility effects their value. Remember, the standard for most leagues is 20 games played at a position the previous year.

Mike Aviles is only shortstop eligible after appearing in two games at second and one at third.

Jose Bautista will only qualify as an outfielder in 2013 after appearing in only one game at third and four at first in 2012.

Brandon Belt appeared in only four games in the outfield losing eligibility there.

Emilio Bonifacio plays all over the place and he should do the same thing for the Blue Jays in 2013. Here are his games played totals from last season: outfield (51 games), second base (15 games). So much for his second, third and shortstop eligibility from ’11.

Billy Butler appeared in only 11 games at first base in 2011 causing him to be DH only eligible in 2012. He rectified that situation by appearing in 20 games at first in 2012.

Chris Davis lost third base from his ledger (zero games), but he is still eligible at first and the outfield.

Edwin Encarnacion is only first base eligible in 2013. He suited up just one time at third base last season.

Adrian Gonzalez fell just short of qualifying in the outfield with 18 games in right field.

Mike Morse appeared in only one game at first base.

Trevor Plouffe has a nice power bat but he qualifies only at third base (95 games) heading into the season. He should be a starter in the outfield for the Twins in 2013, but he appeared in only 17 games in the outfield, four at second and one at short last season.

Martin Prado appeared in 119 games in the outfield, 25 at third, 13 at shortstop, 10 at second and four at first base.

Hanley Ramirez appeared 98 times at third and 57 times at shortstop. Don’t forget that also means that he is eligible to fill the middle and corner infield spots.

Mark Reynolds appeared in 108 games at first but only 15 at third base.

Kyle Seager qualifies at third base (138 games) but not at second (18 games, 14 starts).

Mark Trumbo may or may not qualify as a first baseman for you. He appeared in 21 games at first base last season but only 16 as a starter. Does your league use starts or appearances as the benchmark? Make sure you check it out.

Michael Young appeared in 41 games at first and 25 games at third base. He was only a second sacker 16 times.

Ben Zobrist is a money play in 2013. Not only does he produced impressive numbers at the dish, but he also qualifies at second (58 games), outfield (71 games) and, here’s the kicker, shortstop (47 games). That ability to fill three roster spots is golden and certainly bumps up his value substantially, especially in deeper leagues.

By Ray Flowers

2012 Draft Guide: What Did You Miss?

My 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide was a whopping success this year, and I thank you all for that as it was picked up in record numbers. However, in my desire to lend my helping hand to everyone, even those that didn’t avail themselves of the opportunity to get in their hands a copy of The Guide, and shame on you if you didn’t (you have no one to blame but yourself if you failed to have success in 2012), I decided to do two different things this year. One direction is new for 2012, while the other is something I also did at the end of the regular season last year.

(1) In the link below is an abridged copy of what was included in 55 page PDF Draft Guide. You can see what you missed by passing up on your chance to pick up a copy.

(2) I will break down each position: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, SP, RP
I will show you who my top-10 at each position were and review how they performed. I’ll also list my one “HIT” and “MISS” at each position.

Now who’s ready to review the 2012 season starting with a few of the pieces that were included in the 2012 Draft Guide?

DraftGuide-Review-Oct2012

2012 AWARD WINNERS

One final little tidbit for those of you wondering… here is my award ballot as well. Who should win the MVP, Cy Young and ROY awards?

By Ray Flowers

2012 BaseballGuys.com Mid-Season Rankings

Back in late January the BaseballGuys 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide was offered to facilitate your quest to dominate the fantasy competition. A lot has changed since then though, an awful lot.

Carlos Santana has been a massive disappointment behind the dish.

Albert Pujols struggled mightily out of the gate.

Evan Longoria had multiple setbacks with a lower body injury.

Dustin Pedroia has been largely ineffective due to injury.

Troy Tulowitzki is on the shelf yet again.

Jacoby Ellsbury, Carl Crawford and Matt Kemp suffered significant injuries.

Roy Halladay was hurt.

Two-thirds of the bullpens in baseball have switched closers.

Obviously, a lot has changed since the 2012 season began.

Given those facts, I thought now would be a great time update my Player Rankings. Here’s what I’ve done.

I’ve ranked the top-40 players at the following positions: C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B.
I’ve ranked the top-100 outfielders.
I’ve ranked the top-150 starting pitchers.
I’ve ranked the top-75 relievers.

That’s 525 players ranked for the second half of the 2012 baseball season.

How do you get your copy of the5x5, mixed league rankings?

On the right hand side of the BaseballGuys page, near the top, is a YELLOW DONATE tab. Simply click on the tab, donate $1.00 through Paypal, and The Mid-Season Rankings will be on their way to you within hours.

$1 folks – that’s it. That’s like going to iTunes and downloading a song.

It’s just that simple.

Donate to the BaseballGuys.com cause and I’ll send you an email with the PDF file containing the rankings.

There’s still time to win your fantasy baseball league this season, so let BaseballGuys.com help to guide you to that championship.

By Ray Flowers

2012 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide

Does it feel like Christmas morning? It should, because today is the first day of the rest of your life.

Are you ready to dominate the competition in Fantasy Baseball? If you are then you have come to the right place to have your dreams answered.
I’m proud to release the BaseballGuys 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide. What does the more than 50 page Draft Guide include? Pretty much everything you will need to prep for the 2012 season including articles on:

Pitchers – What numbers should you be targeting when assembling your staff?

Closers – How do you evaluate them?

Which middle relievers should you target?

Should you be concerned when young pitchers see major innings pitched increases?

Hitters – What numbers should you focus on for analyzing hitters?

Which rookies are likely to make a significant fantasy impact in 2012?

Auctions – How to rules.
FAAB – How to rules.

Did You Know? – An article point to some interesting facts from the 2011 season.

SABR Primer – What are these sabermetric measures and what do they mean?

Either/Or – Which players should you target?

Predictions for players for 2012 – award winners etc.

And the heart of The Guide – more there are more than 600 player rankings for 5×5 mixed leagues!

C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS: 50 players at each position
OF: 150 players ranked
Starting Pitchers: 150 ranked
Relief Pitchers: 75 ranked

There are also auction dollar values for mixed leagues for all 600+ players!

So how do you get this whopper of a deal?

On the right hand side of the BaseballGuys page, near the top, is a YELLOW DONATE tab. Simply click on the tab, donate $8.00 through Paypal, and The Guide will be on it’s way to you within hours.

That’s right, for only $8.00 you get more than 50 pages in the PDF file sent to you with all of the above information to help prepare you to destroy your competition in 2012.

Not enough of a deal to entice you? How about this added little bonus (I feel like someone on an infomercial adding a second, whatever, so sweeten the pot). Everyone that purchases The Guide will be able to get one free update of the player rankings. Get The Guide now, study it, take in all it has to offer. If you’d like up updated version of the rankings contained within it a few days before your draft, all you will need to do is to shoot me an email, attach your receipt from PayPal, and I’ll send you a file with the updated player rankings right up until Opening Day.

How much better is that than going to the store to buy a magazine that was printed six weeks ago?

One final note. I know some of you might balk at having to pay for my rankings. However, if you follow my work at BaseballGuys.com, you will know that everything I do here is entirely free. So don’t just think of it as you’re buying an $8.00 Draft Guide. Think of the investment like you are paying $8.00 for a year round baseball site that caters to your needs.

By Ray Flowers

TESTIMONIALS

I have to say it’s one of the best print draft kits I’ve seen. What Ray put together is not your typical cheat sheet to bring to your draft table. This kit teaches you how to make your own cheat sheet using any formula to help you in almost any category and league format you want. – Joe M

I won my league last year with Ray’s draft guide and advice. If you think $8 is to much? Let me tell you it is super cheap for what you get in return. – Jamie

How dare you charge $8 for your draft guide??? should be at least $18 – @rotoexpertMRath.

I am a returning member and support The Oracle & The Fantasy DRIVE on Sirius. Last year the Guide was $3 (I would have paid $15). Which means $8 is a complete value and will help me win three separate titles. – Scott

The BaseballGuys Draft guide is so Amazing I had to take the afternoon off of work to finish reading it. – @AndyNelson97

First time donating to you and this Baseball Guide is brain-candy for analytic minds. – @DaveE926

I sent the $8 donation to @BaseballGuys just for how accessible he is on twitter. – @AlZeidenfeld

Ray & draft guide are full of it…Full of enough tips, tricks, and rankings with updates in the future to take me to the top. – @achiabotta

Why No Top-300?

I’ve received multiple emails and tweets in the 24 hours since the 2012 BaseballGuys’ Fantasy Draft Guide was released. I have to say I’m humbled by the support from all of you, and thanks so much for the kind thoughts that have been shared (you can read some of the testimonials on the link to The Guide).

The one question that I’ve heard from more than one person is – why is there no top-300 like last year? Was I lazy? Did I forget to add it into the mix in some sort of clerical oversight? You know me better than that at this point don’t you? So what was the conscious decision that led to my omitting the overall list after I added it to The Draft Guide last year?

I never use a top-300 to put a team together on draft day. Never. I think it’s a terrible way to construct a squad. What generally happens is that people slavishly draft off the list. By that I mean, if player #132 is there you obviously draft him over player #148 because he’s listed so much earlier in the rankings, right? Never mind the fact that player #132 may not be a fit for your team as it’s currently constructed. The list dictates take the higher ranked player so people take the highest ranked player. People then wonder why their team finishes in last place in steals… it’s because they drafted their team based on a top-whatever list versus putting together a club that could compete in all categories. This situation is the key reason why I did not include a top-300 in my draft guide.

Would I draft Albert Pujols over Prince Fielder? Of course I would. Do I prefer Pujols over Robinson Cano? You can look at the $ figures in The Guide to get an idea of my thinking there as well (let’s say the answer is yes). It’s fairly easy to discern how to rank the top guys. The real problem though occurs when we start talking about those players that are listed outside the elite level performers. Here’s a concrete example.

Do you take the 8th best first baseman or the 4th best second basemen? Well, if seven of the top eight first baseman are off the board, and there are only eight truly strong options, you had better take guy #8 at first base before you look toward second base. However, what if the #8 first baseman is listed behind the #4 second baseman in the rankings? If you look at the top-whatever list you would end up taking the #4 second baseman who is ranked higher overall than the #8 first baseman. That makes sense right? Or does it? If you followed a top-whatever list you’d take the second baseman even though it would make more sense, because of how the draft was playing out, to take that last elite first baseman. Why? There will still be an elite second sacker the next time you pick because it’s pretty doubtful that five second baseman would be taken in the next round of picks. However, you can be fairly certain that the lone remaining first baseman will be taken in the next round of picks, so if you passed on him, he’d be gone by your next selection. If you followed at top-300 list, you’d make the wrong call and take the second sacker.

I’m sorry if you are disappointed in the lack of a top-300 in The Guide. It was an executive decision I made. I’d hope people would be more focused on the tiering of players – that’s more important than a top-whatever list (in my rankings players are placed in tiers, i.e. groups of players that should be viewed as roughly interchangeable in terms of the production that they will bring). If you focus on the tiering model, instead of an inert top-whatever list, you’re likely to end up with a better team to compete for your league championship.

By Ray Flowers