Mock Draft: Talking Pitching Early

In fantasy baseball circles I’m known as the ‘anti-pitcher’ guy. I tell people all the time that in re-draft leagues there is no reason to take a pitcher at the top of a draft, and I practice what I preach (see how my staff turned out in the recent FSTA Experts Draft where I waited until the 8th round to take my first hurler). I know though that many others disagree with that line of thought. So for the sake of thoroughness and seeing both sides of the coin, I decided to flip my traditional script on its ear and go pitching early in a draft. Not only did I go pitching early, I went bonkers with pitching early.

I was invited by Cory Schwartz of MLB.com to participate in a 15 team mixed league (23 rounds with 14 hitters and nine pitchers, but no bench). I drew the 13th pick in the draft and thought, what the hell, I’m taking a hurler in the first round to see how my team would turn out since I know so many of you are drafting hurlers in the first round. I took Clayton Kershaw. When my second turn came up, pick #18 overall, guess which dominating righty was still available? If you said Justin Verlander you are correct. If you said that I did the unthinkable and took Verlander as well… you’d be right again. Not only did I blow past my ‘never take a pitcher in the first round’ strategy, I multiplied the pitching love by grabbing the top two arms in the game with my first two selections. How did my team turn out? Let’s take a look.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

C: Matt Wieters (6th round), John Jaso (17)
1B: Adrian Gonzalez (4)
2B: Marco Scutaro (20)
3B: Pablo Sandoval (5)
SS: Alcides Escobar (11)
MI: Josh Rutledge (12)
CI: Adam LaRoche (14)
OF: Jay Bruce (3), Nelson Cruz (7), Carl Crawford (8), Shane Victorino (9), Nick Markakis (10)
UT: Brett Gardner (16)

STARTING PITCHERS: Clayton Kershaw (1), Justin Verlander (2), Tim Hudson (15), James McDonald (18), Wandy Rodriguez (19)

RELIEF PITCHERS: Jason Grilli (13), Sean Marshall (21), David Robertson (22), Bobby Parnell (23)

I certainly went as big as one could in the first two rounds on the hill, but then I didn’t take another arm until the 13th round, and my third starter didn’t come until the 15th (I would bet many who do go big early on pitching then sit back and wait to fill out their staff with the thought being that they got a stud or two early so now they can afford to wait). This was only a 23 round draft, there were no bench rounds, so you can be assured that at least two, possibly three, of my bench spots would have been devoted to starting pitchers to round out the group. Still, with the two best arms in baseball at the top, a strong ratio guy (Hudson), a potential 180 K guy (McDonald), and a cheap/solid arm (Wandy), I like this group given the constraints I was working under.

I also love my bullpen arms. You might be saying to yourself ‘but Ray you only have one closer,’ and that’s fair, but look at those four arms. That quartet of relievers should be good for 10 strikeouts per nine innings. They are also likely to flat out kill it in ERA and WHIP. In fact, that foursome could very easily dust both Kershaw and Verlander in ERA, WHIP, K/9… and they have the chance to pick up a few saves as well. Basically, if everything goes according to plan, I’ll win Ks, ERA and WHIP. Wins, should be solid enough, and with an injury or poor performance here or there I could get some lucky saves love as well. Remember, only 23 round in this draft, so there would be plenty of time to add more depth to a unit that is filled with power arms in the reserve rounds.

So the staff is impressive. What about the offense, is it offensive like stinky cheese?

My duo at catcher is strong. In a 15 team league to get a duo that is capable of doing the things of Wieters and Jason – gotta like that.

A-Gone is about as good a bet to go .300 with 100 RBIs as any first baseman in baseball not named Pujols or Votto. Sandoval is a potential .300-25 guy at the other corner if he can avoid that third helping of plantains at dinner (his career bests would leave him with a .330-25-90 line). Up the middle I’ve got solid but boring Scutaro. He’s not likely to blow blast past .300 this year (see his Player Profile). Escobar is a solid add for the speed, but there are some questions about his overall game (see his Player Profile). At corner infield LaRoche is boring but does he ever put up numbers in the counting categories. Rutledge doesn’t have a big league season under his belt, but there’s 15/15 potential there.

The outfield is solid. I’ve got Bruce and Cruz for some pop, and then went all-around game with Crawford and Victorino. Questions abound about what Crawford has left to give, and if Victorino can hang on for another season (see his Player Profile), but if they are both healthy there no disputing that the results could potential lead to a bounty of offense. Markakis isn’t a big name, but since most of the big names went off the board while I was grabbing my two arms, he was a strong fallback play for my squad. Ditto on Gardner who people forget averaged 48 steals and 92 runs scored in 2010-11.

So to wrap it up. The offense has solid speed (Gardner, Escobar, Victorino and Crawford). There’s some decent pop but nothing over the top. I had to take chances on talent that was coming back from injury as the depressed value allowed the fellas to be available for me to roster well later than they would be if they were coming off a healthy 2012 (Sandoval, Crawford, Markakis, Gardner). If that foursome of players all play 150 games then this offense will be pretty decent for a 15 team league.

Is it a perfect team? No sir. Is it a solid enough team that I could compete with it? I think the answer is yes. However, there are certain health risks on offense, and how those players perform in 2013 will likely determine how this team will ultimately finish after I spent my top two picks on the best lefty-righty duo anyone in the fantasy game could put together in 2013..

For the full results click on the link to MLB.com Draft.

MLB.com_SlowDraft-RESULTS

Don’t forget to get your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

2013 FSTA LEAGUE

In 2011 I was the FSTA Champion even though I selected Carl Crawford in the first round (he appeared in just 130 games hitting .255 with 65 runs and 18 steals in his worst season of more than 100 games played.). In 2012 I had another first round selection fail to live up to expectations as Evan Longoria had an injury filled campaign. This time I finished in 11th out of 13 teams. Embarrassing. I’m back for blood in 2013. Here’s how the just completed draft went down in Las Vegas (I love vodka and Red Bull by the way… just thought I would share that).

13 teams, Mixed League, 5×5
14 hitters: C, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI, CI, OF, OF, OF, OF, OF, UT
Nine pitchers (any combination of SPs and Rps)
Six bench spots

Here’s the team I selected out of the #6 hole (you can see the results of the entire draft at the RT Sports Link). The number in parenthesis is the round the player was drafted.

C: Joe Mauer (5), Russell Martin (21)
1B: Adam LaRoche (12)
2B: Howie Kendrick (10)
3B: Martin Prado (6)
SS: Hanley Ramirez (2)
MI/CI: Asdrubal Cabrera (7), Kevin Youkilis (14)
OF: Andrew McCutchen (1), B.J. Upton (3), Jay Bruce (4), Coco Crisp (18), Denard Span (19)
UT: Mark Reynolds (20)

SP: James Shields (8), Max Scherzer (9), Tim Lincecum (11), Tim Hudson (16), Wandy Rodriguez (22), Shaun Marcum (23), Edinson Volquez (25), Erasmo Ramirez (28)
RP: J.J. Putz (13), Joel Hanrahan (15), Jason Grilli (17), Sean Marshall (29)

BENCH: Chris Young (24), Jemile Weeks (26), Justin Maxwell (27)

So how did this team turn out? Let me explain how things evolved.

I almost took Joey Votto in round one, but instead went for the more well-rounded game of McCutchen.

In the second I nearly took Jose Reyes. Ultimately I went for HanRam who has more power and qualifies at two spots (SS, 3B). I worry a bit about Reyes playing on Astro Turf, the fact that he is been hurt a fair amount, and that he doesn’t steal bases like he once did.

Round three I grabbed B.J. Upton – who now gets to play with his brother Justin Upton in Atlanta. After three rounds I felt like I had three guys who could all go 20/20. I like that.

In Round four I took the power bat of Bruce, who in my eyes isn’t much different than Ginacarlo Stanton who was taken in the first round. Bruce was another strong pick, but his selection caused a problem. Ramirez/Upton/Bruce could get 1,500+ at-bats with a batting average of .260. That’s not a strong start in that category. So, in order to address that situation my next two picks were guys who should be strong batting average plays – Mauer and Prado. I don’t normally take a catcher this early, but Mauer is pretty much a lock for a .300 average. I just hope he plays 140 games. Prado, who was just dealt to Arizona (which could help his offensive game out a wee bit), is another guy with a batting average floor of about .285. He makes contact, steals a few bags, and should score a ton of runs hitting near the top of the D’backs batting order. He also qualifies at third base and the outfield as well which doesn’t hurt.

Noticing that the middle infield was getting really thin, I took Cabrera for my MI spot. I’d be happy with a slight improvement on last year’s numbers (.270-16-68-70-9). Even a repeat would be alright. Jemile Weeks is a forgotten man but just 12 months ago people thought we could be looking at a .280 hitting, 30 steal guy at second base.

Youkilis and Reynolds are my corner infield options. Neither is great, but I should be able to cobble together something solid there. LaRoche at first base is boring but he did hit 33 homers with 100 RBIs last year. I’d rather have him in the 12th round than Ryan Howard in the 5th.

My outfield has an impressive top-3 (McCutchen, Upton, Bruce). Crisp has a great fro, and he’s stolen at least 32 bases each of the last three years. Span has a .285, 95 run season in him in Washington. I’m telling ya. For support I rostered Young and Maxwell, both of whom have huge holes in their games. Still, both have the talent to make a run at a 20/20 season. I only need one to hit.

I did my normal waiting thing on starters, and I like how it turned out. Shields and Scherzer can win 30 games with 400 plus Ks. You don’t think so? Lincecum could win 15 games and strike out 200 too, even if you don’t think he can. As I noted at the draft table, I think Lincecum in the 11th has every chance of matching Yovani Gallardo who was taken in the 9th. Hudson/Wandy/Marcum might all be the same hurler, but as 4-6 starters I like a trio that is going to be solid in the ratio categories (3.50 ERA, 1.25ish WHIP). Volquez has a huge arm (see his Player Profile). No one seems to think much of my Erasmo pick. Hey, the guy pitches for the Mariners, had a 1.00 WHIP an a 4.00 K/BB ratio over 59 innings last season. I’ll take a shot on that.

In the bullpen – huge arms abound. Putz and Hanrahan, if healthy, should give me 70 saves. Those that think Putz is at the end of his rope aren’t looking at the numbers (or the contract extension he was given by the Diamondbacks). Grilli has never been a closer, but he struck out 13.8 batters per nine innings last season and had a 4.09 K/BB ratio. I like that and so should you. Marshall is the best left handed setup man in the NL. If Aroldis Chapman starts as planned, guess who is the #2 option in Cincy for 9th inning work? It’s Marshall who would only be behind Jonathan Broxton, you know the guy who struck out 6.98 batters per nine innings last season, only four batters below his career mark of 10.96. Broxton is also a year removed from a 6.39 BB/9 mark. Sure it was 12.2 innings, but that should make you nervous if you plan on counting on Mr. Broxton.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

By Ray Flowers

Review: NL LABR

The worst team of all-time.

The worst ever drafted.

How could I possibly be considered an expert drafting this team?

I heard some variance of the above in emails, in tweets, on my show on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. I heard it from everyone. E V E R Y O N E. I left money on the table (a mistake I owned up to in my review of the draft). I had a corner infielder – Derrek Lee – who didn’t take an at-bat all season. I had Placido Polanco have the worst season of his career. So how did the worst team ever drafted turn out? With three days left in the season the team was tied for first place…

Wilin Rosario, who drew a ton of heat for my $8 bid, blasted 28 long balls with 71 RBIs in a dominating season.

Garrett Jones socked 27 long balls with 86 RBIs – both career bests (the runs batted in tied his total from 2010).

Daniel Murphy did exactly what I expected him to do (.291-6-65-62-10) while qualifying at multiple spots.

Rafael Furcal had 477 at-bats, a three year high. He wasn’t great, but he was pretty solid (.264-5-49-69-12).

Chris Nelson, who I was made fun of mercilessly for drafting, hit .301 with nine homers and 53 RBIs.

So much for my infield being “pathetic” as most thought.

As I said after the draft, the strength of my team was always going to be my outfield. And it was.

Andrew McCutchen: Should finish near the top of the NL MVP voting thanks to his out of sight effort that included a .327 batting average, 31 homers, 96 RBIs, 107 runs scored and 20 steals.

Dexter Fowler: Hit .300 with 13 homers, 12 steals, 53 RBIs and 72 runs scored.

Alfonso Soriano: 32 HRs, 108 RBIs. I was laughed at for drafting him.

Carlos Quentin: 16 HRs, 46 RBIs. Knew he would be hurt, but 86 games was a 5-year low. If only he had gotten to 115…

Chris Young: Worst season of his career hitting .231-14-41-36-8 from a player who averaged 24 HRs, 81 RBIs, 92 runs and 25 steals in 2010-11. He was literally half the player in 2012 that he had been the previous two years.

Nate McLouth: Even though it’s an NL-only league, you can hold on to players who are dealt to the other league. I held on to him all year and that really paid off in the end as he took off with the Orioles (.268-7-18-35-12 in a mere 55 games).

How was the club on the hill?

Madison Bumgarner: 16 wins, 3.37 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 191 Ks
Tommy Hanson: 13-10, 4.48 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 161 Ks
Wandy Rodriguez: 12-13, 3.76 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 139 Ks
Gio Gonzalez: 21-8, 2.89 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 207 Ks
Jeff Samardzija: 9-13, 3.81 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 180 Ks

Rafael Betancourt: 2.81 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 31 saves
Sergio Romo: 1.79 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 14 saves
Luke Gregerson: 2.39 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 9 saves

Reserve picks – Two played out.

Ross Detwiler: 10 wins, 3.40 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 105 Ks
Logan Forsythe: .283, 6 HRs, 8 SBs, 45 runs

So how did it all turn out?

CONGRATS: Steve Moyer of Baseball Info Solutions who won the league.

FINAL RESULT: 2/13. I couldn’t catch Steve but turns out the worst team in the history of fantasy baseball, the team I dubbed the Little Engine That Could, almost brought it home. So there everyone.

By Ray Flowers

Review: Fanball & Sirius Show League

Two more leagues to review. And yes, the results of these final two leagues was much better than the majority of my efforts that I’ve been detailing over the past week.

FANBALL LEAGUE

For those of you who haven’t been following my work for years, and shame on you if you haven’t, I used to work at Fanball. When the company was closed I took up my mantle as a Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio employee, something that I will discuss further when we get to the next section. For now, all you need to know is that I was in a league with 11 other fellow Fanball employees in a 12 team mixed league.

Matt Wieters and Kurt Suzuki, the same tale as every league. One strong catcher and one Kurt Suzuki. On Kurt, my pathetic muse…

Mark Reynolds – sensing a theme here? Yes, I had Reynolds on all my clubs, and yes, he underperformed.

Robinson Cano was nails this year, an MVP candidate thanks to his extraordinary efforts that included a .313 average, a career best 33 homers, 94 RBIs and a career best 105 runs, a 4th straight effort of triple digits.

David Wright wasn’t at his best, but he was very, very good (.306-21-93-91-15). So much for his bat being washed up.

Ian Desmond come on down. What an excellent season (.292-25-73-72-21) for a cheap draft day add (18th round). Amazing.

Ben Zobrist did it all – yet again (.270-20-74-88-14), and he now qualifies at shortstop too. Martin Prado (.301-10-70-81-17) was a wonderful corner infield option who played all over the field like Zobrist. A great MI/CI duo. Oh, and I had Daniel Murphy (.291-6-65-62-10) in reserve at both spots.

A solid outfield, but not extremely deep. Michael Bourn, B.J. Upton, Adam Jones and Dexter Fowler did it all (as did Zobrist). Vernon Wells – yet another disappointing season. I should have known better.

Chris Davis went deep 33 times with 85 RBIs. It happened.

James Shields, Jered Weaver and Max Scherzer anchored this impressive staff. Brandon Morrow would have given me a dynamic foursome if he hadn’t missed two months with injury. Beyond those four, a cast of my “normal” characters – Wandy Rodriguez, Ricky Nolasco, Francisco Liriano. None of them panned out.

My bullpen, as in so many leagues this year, was nails thanks to Kenley Jansen, Tyler Clippard and Sergio Romo for that.

CONGRATS: David Honecker.

FINAL RESULT: 2/12. So close.

THE DRIVE SHOW LEAGUE

Each year on The Drive, my SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio Show (Sirius 210, XM 87, M-Th 7 PM EDT, Friday 9 PM EDT), we do a league with the listeners and producers of our show. Here is how the season went.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia and his 25 homers were nice, but Kurt Suzuki and his six weren’t. Boy did I miss on Suzuki.

Adam Dunn blasted tons of homers (41) and produced runs (96 RBIs, 87 runs scored). Too bad he hit .204.

Ian Kinsler was a steal from 20/20.

Derek Jeter… like on every other team I had, was great.

Mike Aviles was a solid MI/CI option (.250-13-60-57-14).

My boy Chase Headley, taken in the 20th round, was fantabulistic (.286-31-115-95-17). Given his draft day cost, he was one of the 10 best players in fantasy baseball this year.

Ryan Braun was a superstar (.319-41-112-108-30).

Matt Holliday was pretty darn good (.295-27-102-95).

Desmond Jennings had a solid season (13 HRs, 85 runs, 31 steals). I parlayed him into Andrew McCutchen early in the year. Yeah, that worked out well.

B.J. Upton was two homers from a 30/30 season.
Alex Rios was two steals from 25/25
Carl Crawford. Shame on me.

Braun-Holliday-McCutchen-Upton-Rios = the best outfield ever assembled. Ever.

Matt Cain dominated.
Matt Moore wasn’t as good, but he still had 175 Ks.
Tommy Hanson wasn’t even league average. Ditto Josh Beckett.
Ryan Dempster was solid (12 wins, 3.38 ERA, 1.20 WHIP).

Tyler Clippard turned in 32 saves.
Huston Street was dynamic when on the hill (1.85 ERA, 0.72 WHIP, 23/24 on saves).
Sergio Romo, dominating again.
Brett Myers racked up 19 saves before he was dealt to the White Sox.
Brian Wilson blew out his arm.
Scott Baker blew out his arm.

How did I save this staff? The additions of Chris Capuano (12-12, 3.72 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 162 Ks) certainly helped. Jarrod Parker also was on the club to add depth (13-8, 3.47 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 140 Ks).

CONGRATS: To Me. Finally.

FINAL RESULT: 1/12.

By Ray Flowers

Review: SiriusXM Hosts League Draft

The review of my season in the abyss continues as I’ll take a look today at the Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio Hosts’ League club that I put together.

Kurt Suzuki and John Buck were total failures. In the piece I just linked to above I mentioned how close I was to getting Carlos Ruiz. Oh well.

Kevin Youkilis (.235-19-60-72) had a lost season wearing White and Red Sox.

Dustin Pedroia had a solid season with 15 homers, 20 steals and 81 runs scored, but injuries limited him to his worst season of 140 games played.

Derek Jeter was on a whole lot of my teams this year. Turns out he was a hell of a lot better than anyone, well almost anyone, thought he would be (.316-15-59-99-9).

Billy Butler was a superstar posting the best numbers of his career (.313-29-107-72). I don’t think he can get much better – at least in the homer column.

My outfield was a mixed bag. CarGo (.303-22-85-89-20) was once again star. Carl Crawford was once again a massive disappointment in his worst season (31 flipping games). Shane Victorino stole a career best 39 bags, but he also hit a career worst .255, produced 55 RBIs (his lowest total in five years), and scored just 72 times, his fewest times crossing the plate since 2006. Brett Gardner was a total flop appearing in just 16 games because of about 16 setbacks with his elbow. After averaging 48 steals the past two years and getting just two this year, it’s not surprising to see my team come in with seven out of a possible 12 points in the steals category.

Mark Reynolds, a top-5 third baseman in homers, RBIs and runs from 2009-11, had his worst season ever with only a massive finishing kick giving him non-puking numbers (.221-23-69-65). I still spit up a little in my mouth.

James Shields joined Justin Verlander as the only two pitchers in baseball with at least 15 victories and 220 Ks each of the past two years.

Ricky Romero was the worst pitcher ever. Well, not quite, but you know what I mean. If you don’t, here is some context. Not only did he have a 1.67 WHIP over 181 innings, he posted the 10th worst ERA of the 21st century for a hurler who tossed 180 innings (his mark was 5.77, the worst the 6.65 mark of Jose Lima in 2000).

Brandon Morrow was the ace I predicted he would be with a 2.96 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Too bad he made only 21 starts because of injury.

Max Scherzer alternated brilliance and putrid outings frustrating his owners. In the end though no one was complaining about 16 victories, 231 Ks, a 3.74 ERA and 1.27 WHIP.

Chad Billingsley, Erik Bedard, Ricky Nolasco rounded out the rotation. Billingsley was having a nice bounce back season before an elbow injury shut him down at 149.2 innings after 4-straight years over 185 innings. Bedard was just awful after a solid start (7-14, 5.01 ERA, 1.47 WHIP). Amazingly he was healthy but horrible. Nolasco teased again, and in the end the numbers were terrible (12-13, 4.48 ERA, 1.37 WHIP).

Sergio Santos, Kenley Jansen, Brett Myers, Matt Capps and Aroldis Chapman were my bullpen, and yes I led the league in saves with 142, a pretty kick ass number for a 12 team league. Don’t overlook the fact that Santos had only two saves on the year either. If he too was healthy I could have parlayed one of these arms into more help for my starting staff.

CONGRATS: Drew Dinkmyer of Fantistics.

FINAL RESULT: 8/12. Not good. However, one more run, two more wins and 14 more Ks would have landed me in a tie for 6th place. Amazing how close it always is after such a long season.

By Ray Flowers

Review: K-BAD

The folks over at KFFL.com have been gracious enough to invite me to participate in KFFL’s Baseball Analysis Draft (K-BAD) the last couple of years. When you see how my team performed no wonder they invited me. I’m apparently an easy mark.

Ryan Doumit was great (.275-18-75). Not so much Kurt Suzuki who burned me in pretty much every league (literally every one huh?). As they say, love hurts.

Miguel Cabrera was my rock. Triple Crown winner (.330-44-139).

Howie Kendrick didn’t match his 2011 effort but he was solid (.287-8-67-57-14).

Kevin Youkilis didn’t come close to living up to my expectations with his worst season (.235/.336/.409).

Derek Jeter was one run and one steal from a .315-15-55-100-10 season.

Mark Reynolds and Dustin Ackley didn’t exactly anchor my CI/MI spots.

Matt Holliday, B.J. Upton, Dexter Fowler and Shane Victorino were a strong base in the outfield, but Brennan Boesch (.240-12-54-52 in 470 at-bats) and Vernon Wells (.230-11-29-36 in 243 at-bats) were dreadful as my 5th outfield option. I should have listened to my own review of Boesch.

Daniel Murphy was solid and qualified at multiple positions. Rafael Furcal was spectacular for two months (.333 with 37 runs and eight steals in April-May) and good in the first half (.275 with 54 runs scored) before his work at the dish caved (.239 with a .600 OPS over his last 38 games). Oh, and finally my boy, Chris Davis, killed it. Davis socked 33 long balls and drive in 85 while scoring 75 times. I knew the power would eventually come out.

King Felix dominated.
Ricky Romero was atrocious.
Josh Beckett was as blah as blah gets.
Brandon Morrow was great but missed two months with injury.
Wandy Rodriguez was league average across the board.
Ricky Nolasco was worse than Wandy.
Scott Baker blew his arm out.

Sergio Santos blew his arm out.
Frank Francisco was awful (5.53 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 23 SVs).
David Robertson was the closer for about 10 days before he was injured (I spent 35% of my FAAB budget to add him for that 10 day run. What luck, right?).
Sergio Romo was nails as always (1.79 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 14 SVs).

CONGRATS:  Joe Hamrahi of Baseball Prospectus.

FINAL RESULT: 11/12. This is the most embarrassed I think I have ever been at a club. My pitching was abysmal. Because I realized with a third of the year left that I have no shot at doing anything in the saves or ratio categories I tanked the ratios and gave up on relievers in an attempt to try and rack up strikeouts and wins. Even that didn’t help. On offense, I was 13 RBIs from three more points, seven homers from two more points and two steals from another point. It’s always close as I’ve been saying.

By Ray Flowers

Review: Tout Wars

I stand accountable for my actions. More times than not I’m right, but sometimes I make mistakes. When I do, I’m not afraid to admit it. I’d like to think that helps to set me out a bit in this industry. I try to be transparent and truthful. To that end, I thought I would spend a few days reviewing the results from my “experts leagues.” It wasn’t exactly pretty, I’ll be straight forward with that, but again I don’t believe in running and hiding. Here is how things went in my first year in Tout Wars (I was in the mixed league with 15 clubs).

It all went wrong from the day the draft was held. The following three players saw me battle down to the end, it’s an action league, but ultimately I stopped bidding on all of them a dollar short (I was the runner up for each if you will): Edwin Encarnacion, Zack Greinke and Andrew McCutchen. In their place I ended up with Pablo Sandoval, Cliff Lee and B.J. Upton. Pretty understandable how I didn’t finish higher in the league isn’t it now? Speaking of Lee, I’m flabbergasted at his total of six wins. I started him every time he took the hill this year, so let’s saw he won 13 games and not six this season (his performance warranted 13 victories, at least, and he averaged 16 wins the previous four years). If I had seven more victories to my team total I would have gone from 86 wins to 93 victories. That alone would have netted me three more points in the standings and put me into 8th place overall. It’s always amazing how closely these things end up being after 162 games. If I had rostered EE, Greinke and McCutchen… I don’t even want to try and figure that out cause it would likely make me want to vomit.

Suzuki and Buck both had career worst seasons.

Carlos Lee was passable but Gaby Sanchez went from productive to the minors. Dreadful.

Chase Utley was supposed to miss about a month. He ended up playing only 83 games. Dustin Ackley played on a bad ankle all year and was terrible. At least Danny Espinosa turned out pretty damn well with 17 homers, 20 steals and 82 runs scored.

Derek Jeter was a star and a fantastic $13 investment on draft day.

Pablo Sandoval was solid when on the field. He didn’t get to even 400 at-bats though.

Nelson Cruz stayed healthy but didn’t perform to his previous levels, though surprisingly he remained relatively healthy. B.J. Upton was supposed to miss a week. Turned out to nearly be a month even though he was very impressive when on the field. Alex Rios – superstar effort for $13. Carl Crawford was thought to be good to go by May 1st at the latest. Hey, it was worth the risk as my 4th outfielder. Turns out his season was an unmitigated disaster as he had more injuries than John J. Rambo picks up when saving people in the jungle. He appeared in 31 games. Denard Span was a decent 5th OF in a 15 team mixed league, especially for $2, as he hit .283 with 17 steals.

On the hill Cliff Lee pitched very well, but couldn’t get any run support at all. Felix Hernandez wet the bed in September, but overall he had a very impressive season. John Danks, was injured and made just nine starts. Chad Billingsley was having a nice bounceback season but made 25 starts, his lowest total in five years, cause of injury. James McDonald was a fantastic reserve round add even if he too died in the second half. Oh, and Ricky Nolasco? It’s time to give up there. In the pen I had a tremendous group with Tyler Clippard, Sergio Romo (I bought the duo for $7) and Kenley Jansen. However, Sergio Santos was a total bust due to injury, and literally right after Mariano Rivera was hurt and David Robertson was moved into the closing role, Robertston also came up lame. You guessed it. I also had Robertson on my staff. I could have had Romo/Clippard/Robertson/Jansen, all as closers, for a total of $13. That’s how you put together a pitcher staff without spending big dollars on closers. I finished second in the league in saves even with the injuries to Sergio Santos/Robertson and the Giants stubbornness in not using Romo as the closer until late in the year.

Missed substantial time on DL: Utley, Sandoval, Upton, Crawford, Santos, Robertson, Danks, Billingsley. When you lose that many guys in a 15 team league, it’s rough to play catchup. Not that I didn’t try considering that I had, at one time or another, 44 hitters and 25 pitchers work their way through my lineup.

CONGRATS: Cory Schwartz who won the league. Greatest celebration picture ever by the way.

FINAL RESULT: 9/15. Just wasn’t meant to be this year.

By Ray Flowers

Review: FSTA League

I stand accountable. More times than not I’m right, but sometimes I make mistakes. When I do, I’m not afraid to admit it. I’d like to think that helps to set me out a bit in this industry. I try to be transparent and truthful. To that end, I thought I would spend a few days reviewing the results from my “experts leagues.” It wasn’t exactly pretty, I’ll be straight forward with that, but again I don’t believe in running and hiding. First up, the FSTA Experts League.

To review my team click on this link: Vegas, BaseballGuys FSTA Team

And if you want to see the results of the draft, click on the FSTA DRAFT link.

A note. This draft was held in January. That created a lot of issues, chief amongst them the fact that Ryan Braun was thought to be suspended for 50 games at the time of the draft (he went in the 4th round to Chris Liss). There was also the little issue of bullpens simply not being setup at the time of the draft (the draft is so early to help people prepare for the season, but in holding it so early there are a ton of issues that crop up).

To my team.

Yadier Molina and Ryan Doumit were rockstars at catcher. Tremendous duo in a 2-catcher league. Better than anyone else’s.

First base was my downfall. Carlos Pena had his worse full season (he hit flipping .197 with 19 homers and 61 RBIs. He had gone deep at least 28 times with 80 RBIs each of the previous five seasons) and Derrek Lee never played (remember, the draft was in January).

Dustin Pedroia and Brandon Phillips weren’t great, but they were certainly solid at second and middle infield.

Evan Longoria, my first round pick, missed half the season. Last year I won the league with Carl Crawford as my first round pick. I couldn’t pull off the trick again with my first round pick crapping out. My two late grabs to help out at the hot corner, Mat Gamel and Ian Stewart, were just awful.

Yunel Escobar was very solid three of the last four years. Oops. Make if three of five years now as he was awful in 2012 as he hit .253 with 51 RBIs and 58 runs scored. He’s a career .282 hitter.

Matt Holliday did what he always does – produce. Michael Bourn slowed late in the year, but he was still at borderline top-50 performer overall. Shane Victorino, like so many others on this squad, had his worst effort (.255-11-55-72-39). Martin Prado qualified in the infield and outfield and was a dynamic 4th OF with a .301-10-70-81-17. That’s a great season. I was once again bit by the early draft. I added Chris Heisey as my 5th outfielder as he appeared to have a shot to hit 25+ homers in a full-time role with the Reds. Literally days later the Reds signed Ryan Ludwick. We know how that turned out. Matt Joyce started strong but was hurt and ultimately faded in the second half. Oh, and that Franklin Gutierrez — always hurt.

The pitching…

Ricky Romero. I don’t need to say anything there other than just list his name. You know what I mean. C.J. Wilson started out fantastically before an elbow injured killed him in the second half (he’ll need surgery). Brandon Morrow was off to a dominating pace but was felled by an oblique issue. Wandy Rodriguez was, Wandy Rodriguez. Sergio Santos below his arm out. Scott Baker blew his arm out. Tim Stauffer didn’t blow his arm out, but he threw all of five innings on the year. Chris Perez was aces. Roy Oswalt was awful (remember, this draft was in January and we all thought he was going to be pitching in the first week of the season). Tyler Clippard was fantastic. Javy Guerra ended the year with a whimper, and Brandon Lyon never did close all year. Not that it would have mattered with the Astros.

CONGRATS: Steve Gardner/Howard Kamen who won the league.

FINAL RESULT: 11/13 teams. I failed miserably to repeat as the league champion that I was in 2011.

By Ray Flowers

SiriusXM Hosts League Draft

Last night, live on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio, we had another hosts draft in which I got to pit my wits against some of the industry leaders in a 12 team, mixed league snake draft. Let’s see how I did.  The number in parenthesis is the round the player was drafted in the fantasy baseball draft.

C: Kurt Suzuki (16), John Buck (26)
1B: Kevin Youkilis (4)
2B: Dustin Pedroia (2)
3B: Ryan Zimmerman (3)
SS: Derek Jeter (12)
MI/CI: Yunel Escobar (18), Billy Butler (7)
OF: Carlos Gonzalez (1), Carl Crawford (5), Shane Victorino (6), Brett Gardner (8), Carlos Lee (20)
UT: Mark Reynolds (11)

SP: James Shields (9), Ricky Romero (10), Brandon Morrow (13), Max Scherzer (15)

RP: Sergio Santos (14), Kenley Jansen (17), Brett Myers (19), Matt Capps (21), Aroldis Chapman (23)

BENCH: Denard Span (22), Ricky Nolasco (24), Erik Bedard (25), Ian Stewart (27), Brian Roberts (28)

* I wanted to roster Nick Hundley or Chris Iannetta as my second catcher, but both were taken the round I was going to add them. I then thought I’d take Carlos Ruiz, but he too was taken so I just waited to add Buck. If you can fill bench spots before you have to fill your starting lineup, you might consider a similar strategy.

* I was certainly tempted to take Joey Votto with my first pick, but two things played into my choice of CarGo. (1) I like the five category skills of Gonzalez a wee bit better. (2) Yahoo, which is the service we held the draft on, pretty much qualifies everyone in the game as a first or third baseman, so I felt comfortable passing on the elite first baseman.

* Speaking of the corners, look at the lineup I rostered. Youkilis can play first or third, ditto with Reynolds, an even Butler qualifies at first in this set up too (so does Lee). People might look at Butler in the 7th round and think that’s too early to take him, but as a first base eligible player he’s of real interest. To compare, Eric Hosmer hit .293 with 19 homers and 78 RBI last year in 523 at-bats while Butler hit .291 with 19 homers and 95 RBI in 597 at-bats. Plus, Butler is a rock of consistency.

* Jeter is old, but I don’t doubt that he’ll hit at least .280 with 15 steals and 80 runs scored – at a minimum. Escobar in the 18th round was also a solid add at middle infielder. Speaking of middle infielders, why in the hell did I take Brian Roberts in the 28th round? Did my computer do on auto-draft? Did I drink too many Paradise Punch’s and think it was 2007? You know how I always preach about knowing your league rules? This is a perfect example. Roberts will start the year on the DL, so if he’s taking up a bench spot in a 12 team mixed league it’s pretty tough to justify his inclusion on your roster. However, this league has DL spots. I drafted Roberts, immediately placed him on the DL after the draft (I was able to add Chad Billingsley). In essence, I’ll get a player I was targeting with my last pick in the draft anyway, an I’ll have Roberts for free cause he isn’t impacting my active roster. If/when Roberts plays, he’ll be effective. It’s just a matter of when that will occur.

* I waited on pitching, but so did everyone else to a certain degree. That resulted in a large number of solid starting pitchers being available late (Nolasco, Bedard types). However, people went hot and heavy on relievers, so I just waited that out. In the end, I’ve got three closers – Santos, Myers, Capps – though I really only like the first one. Still, saves are saves, so I’ll pay the price in the ratio cats to get them from Capps and Myers. I also added Chapman on the off chance that the Reds decide to give him some 9th inning work which is certainly possible (especially after Dusty Baker said the other day that he isn’t locked into using Sean Marshall exclusively in the 9th). As for my starters, see what I say about waiting on arms? Shields, Romero, Morrow and Scherzer all have the talent to win 15 games with at least 175 Ks. I wanted to take Morrow in the 11th but showed patience and got him two rounds later. I also wanted Scherzer in the 13th but was able to get him two round later as well.

So there is the squad. What do you think? Oh, by the way, for the full draft results click on the link to SiriusXM Experts Draft.

To sign up for fantasy baseball, give Fleaflicker a look.

By Ray Flowers

Tout Wars: A Review

 I was in New York over the weekend for Tout Wars. Looking to redeem myself after my LABR experience, I thought I would change my approach with Tout. The plan? Draft a good team, something that somewhat eluded me in Arizona.

After wading slowly into the mix in LABR, I decided to be a bit more aggressive this time out (probably a good idea I think we would all agree). In this 15 team mixed league I was able to roster a solid group of bats, but I really love my power pitching. Before I get emails from all of you saying ‘but Ray, you always say don’t draft pitching early’ you have to realize two things. (1) Things are different at an auction. The amount of control that you have is exponentially greater so you can have a couple of “aces” an not necessarily miss out on bats. If you take an SP in the 2nd round in a snake-draft you miss out on a big time hitter. In an auction there are no rounds to worry about so you can add Roy Halladay and still get Prince Fielder if you want instead of just being able to get either/or in the second round of an snake draft. (2) If there is value present, I’m going to jump into the mix. Check out the names that I was able to roster for my staff:

Cliff Lee ($26), Felix Hernandez ($23), John Danks ($3), Chad Billingsley ($3), Ricky Nolasco ($3), Sergio Santos ($13), Kenley Jansen ($6), Sergio Romo ($4) and Tyler Clippard ($3)

I know, I know, you’re saying to yourself ‘Ray, when is the love affair with Billingsley and Nolasco going to end?’ My response is that I’m a glutton for punishment. Billingsley should offer a moderate bounce back from last season, an I always, an I mean every season, point out how Nolasco has great skills even if he’s rarely able to put things together. You also read about Danks in his Player Profile, right? He’s a nice rebound candidate since he actually pitched better last year than he did in 2010. As for the bullpen arms, I have to say I’m pretty darn excited about the group. Jansen is one of the best arms in the game, and Santos was great as a first year closer last year. In San Francisco Brian Wilson doesn’t appear to be 100 percent, while Drew Storen is dealing with some health issues of his own in Washington. It wouldn’t take a whole hell of a lot for Clippard and Romo to pick up at least a few saves. For good measure, I also added James McDonald in the reserve rounds, along with David Robertson. McDonald has a great arm and showed some nice signs of growth last year with the Pirates. Robertson continues to impress after injuring his foot, and he’ll slide in well with my stable of power arms out of the pen.

On offense, a moderate approach was key. Here’s what I ended up with:

C: Kurt Suzuki ($7), John Buck (4)
1B: Carlos Lee (8)
2B: Chase Utley (6)
3B: Pablo Sandoval (23)
SS: Derek Jeter (13)
MI/CI: Dustin Ackley (8) Gaby Sanchez (12)
OF: B.J. Upton (27) Nelson Cruz (20), Carl Crawford (18), Alex Rios (13), Denard Span (2)
UT: Danny Espinosa (8)

Watch me lock down Dustin Ackley in the bidding.

Remember, this is a 15 team league, so guys like Lee and Sanchez at first and corner infield, while not even remotely exciting, provide plenty of counting stat production. You’ll notice Utley as my “starter” at second, and you’re likely thinking – huh? But for $6, and he was tossed out there relatively early in the draft, I felt like it was a risk worth taking. I felt even better about it when I was able to roster Dustin Ackley and Danny Espinosa for a combined $16 to handle second and middle infield if Utley is a waste. I mean, Jemile Weeks went for $16 by his lonesome. I like Weeks’ speed, but I’d certainly rather have Ackley and Espinosa for the same cost. Jeter is boring, but he was the last shortstop I trusted on the board other than Alexei Ramirez. The White Sox shortstop was brought up a couple of players after Jeter and he went for $17. Cruz and Crawford in the outfield are health risk, but for $38? There were probably leagues last year where Crawford went for that by his lonesome. I love B.J. Upton. Here’s why. I’m also a big fan of Alex Rios, see his Player Profile, and thought $13 was just right for his services (I have him at that cost in the 2012 BBGuys Draft Guide). Span may not excite you, but if he can stay healthy hitting atop the Twins order, then he could be a strong, cheap, option for my club. For support in the reserve round I added Aubrey Huff and Danny Valencia. Rather boring no doubt, but if they knock in 80 runs while not killing my average, I won’t mind too much.

I’d like to thank our gracious host, SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio, for putting on a great event this past weekend (here’s a picture of me in action). The studio looked amazing, right across the street from Radio City Music Hall, and Howard Stern’s studio was right next door (I still can’t believe they pay a guy $100 million a year to talk  about nude ladies and sex. I’d do that for a hundredth of that. Heck, I might do it for free).

Gotta say, I wasn’t overly impressed by NYC. I hadn’t been there since I was 16 so I was looking forward to a big bash of late night shenanigans. While we did get into some trouble, the fact that we wandered around New York at 3 AM and couldn’t find a place to get something to eat – simply amazing. Isn’t there supposed to be a late night pizza place open all night on every corner?

 Click here for a review of all the selections in the Mixed Tout Wars League.

By Ray Flowers