ABA 2011: A Review

Yesterday in ABA: The New WHIP, I laid out my six year old idea now of how to better evaluate pitchers performance than the standard that is used in virtually every fantasy league – WHIP. Instead I suggested that Average Bases Allowed (ABA) – recorded by taking Total Bases + Walks divided by Innings Pitched – gives a truer understanding of the level of performance for a hurler than WHIP (you can read about the in’s an out’s of ABA in the above link). Today, I’ll list for you some of the leaders in ABA from the 2011 season based on innings pitched. Before I get to that a quick review of ABA.

ABA = (TBA + BB) / IP

The lower ones ABA the better, but it doesn’t read the same was as WHIP. Whereas the average WHIP last season was 1.32, the league average ABA of all pitchers in 2011 was 1.86.

Second, here is a “key” you can employ to understand the ABA totals.

Below 1.50: elite level performance
1.50-1.70: All-Star level
1.71-1.89: Solid major league hurler worthy of counting on in fantasy circles
1.91-2.10: Barley holding on to an effective role as a fantasy starter.
2.11 and up: Might as well line up a pitching machine

With that, here are some of the the hurlers that caught my eye broken down into innings pitched groupings.

2011 ABA LEADERS – Minimum 160 IP

1.31 – Clayton Kershaw
1.32 – Roy Halladay
1.35 – Justin Verlander
What a shock. The three hurlers who are widely regarded as options 1-3 in 2012 finished 1-3 in ABA in 2011.

1.43 – Cliff Lee
1.44 Cole Hamels
The Phillies had three of the top five arms according to ABA.

1.45 – Doug Fister
He didn’t beat himself with walks (37) or allow many long balls (11), a key in ABA.

1.59 – Brandon McCarthy
Only issued 25 walks all season, a tremendous number. For my thoughts on McCarthy see his Player Profile.

1.61 – Phil Humber
He finished last year in the top-20 in ABA. It would be surprising if he finished 2012 in the top-40.

1.69 – Gavin Floyd
Often overlooked, Floyd had a better ABA mark than Gio Gonzalez (1.71), Daniel Hudson (1.73) and Yovani Gallardo (1.77).

1.84 – Zack Greinke
Just slightly better than the league average in ABA (1.86), Greinke is still an elite arm. He just didn’t score well according to this measure. Remember, no one measure ever paints for the you entire picture.

1.87 – Brandon Morrow
You know I love the arm, but he simply must reign in the walks and cutting into the homer total would help as well.

1.97 – Bartolo Colon
Don’t be seduced by his strong first half last year.

2.04 – Ubaldo Jimenez
Seventy-eight walks will kill ya.

2.33 – Bronson Arroyo
The worst arm amongst qualifiers. Think it might have something to do with the 46 homers he allowed?

90-160 INNING HURLERS

1.39 – Johnny Cueto
He led this group in ABA since he fell four innings short of appearing in the top group.

1.49 – Jim Johnson
He doesn’t strike many out, an I’m not sure he’s a great 9th inning option, but he is rarely taken deep and doesn’t beat himself with the free passes.

1.72 – Scott Baker and Vance Worley
Baker’s arm appears to be sound this spring, but continued minor setbacks are an issue. Worley is starting to get a lot of love in the fantasy game.

1.87 – Homer Bailey
Though he had a solid WHIP of 1.28 his ABA was one hundredth worse than the league average.

2.37 – Edinson Volquez
He has a great arm, has a fantastic home park, and the last two years his ground ball rate is over 50 percent. Still, ABA shows you just how far he will have to come to return to relevance.

2.42 – Danny Duffy
He might look good this spring, but he looked awful last year.

LESS THAN 90 INNING ARMS

1.02 – Sergio Romo
Just like with SWIP, Romo comes out on top.

1.16 – Mariano Rivera
The AL leader, he gave up three homers and eight walks in over 61 innings last year.

1.23/1.24 – Craig Kimbrel/Jonny Venters
How apropos that the best lefty-righty duo out of the pen also finished with nearly identical ABA marks.

1.28 – Greg Holland
The Royals reliever had the same ABA mark as Sean Marshall and Jonathan Papelbon.

1.40 – John Axford, Brandon League
They both induce a ton of grounders and that helped to keep their total bases down.

1.50 – Aroldis Chapman, Javy Guerra
These two guys do it totally differently. One uses pure heat, the other get by more on “pitching.” Chapman walked a huge total of 41 guys in 50 innings but he allowed a mere two homers.

1.63 – Henry Rodriguez
Though he finished with a poor 1.51 WHIP, he has a big arm and ABA shows him to still be better than a big league average performer last year. In fact, his ABA was the same as Andrew Bailey.

1.90 – Joe Nathan
Nathan didn’t get along well with ABA last year, even though he had a strong second half. Seven homers in just 44.2 innings isn’t going to help anyone out.

1.99 – Huston Street
Ten homers in 58.1 innings caused his ABA to be pretty high (see Nathan).

2.16 – Phil Hughes
I keep warning about Hughes (see his Player Profile). The return to action of Andy Pettitte also is an issue.

For those of you who want to investigate further, here is the BBGuys-ABA-2011-PDF file that lists all men who tossed at least 40-innings last season.

Also… there is still time to pick up your copy of the 2012 BBGuys Draft Guide.

By Ray Flowers

ABA: The New WHIP

When is one not one? No, I’m not operating in some alternative universe outside of the Matrix with Morpheus trying to wake me up to the truth (if you don’t get that pop culture reference you need to start seeing some movies), I’m simply asking when is one not necessarily equivalent to one? If you are interested in riddles, or just want to know what the hell I’m talking about, please read on.

AVERAGE BASES ALLOWED

Average Bases Allowed, henceforth ABA, is an innovative way to look at pitcher’s effectiveness and is designed to replace WHIP (Walks + Hits / IP), though I would settle for it to be used alongside WHIP until it catches on (I’m so amenable aren’t I?). What spawned the idea of ABA? Consider the following simple comparison.

Pitcher A allows one hit and one walk in two innings. Therefore his WHIP is 1.00 (two base runners in two innings).

Pitcher B allows one hit and one walk in two innings. Therefore his WHIP is 1.00 (two base runners in two innings).

So, according to WHIP, both pitchers have performed the same. However, does that mean that they were equally effective? What if we added a bit more depth to our example?

Pitcher A: Allowed a walk an a single in his two innings.
Pitcher B: Allowed a walk an a home run in his two innings.

Therefore…

It is reasonable to posit that Pitcher A had an ERA of zero. After all he gave up only two bases in his two innings. However, Pitcher B’s ERA was at least 4.50. Why? If Pitcher B walked a guy and then gave up a home run to the next batter he would have allowed two runs in two innings – hence his ERA would be 9.00, an even if it was a solo shot it would have still plated a run leading to a 4.50 ERA. So as you can plainly see, while the hurlers may have the same WHIP, the actual result of their performances in the real world would have been drastically different. Because of this simple yet often overlooked fact, I went about trying to set up a way in which I could analyze a pitcher’s performances in a more equitable way. Instead of using hits and walks as does WHIP, I decided to use total bases allowed and walks (because WHIP leaves out things like hit by pitch, I made the decision to do the same with ABA). Why replace hits with total bases?

Is it more important to know how many batters are allowed to reach base or is it more important to know how many bases they received when they reached base?

Here is the formula for ABA.

ABA = (TBA + BB) / IP

Does it not stand to reason that the pitcher who allows fewer bases to those batters who do reach base would have a better chance of limiting the amount of runs that score? Let’s take a look at a concrete example to illustrate.

In 2011 Tim Lincecum and Colby Lewis had identical WHIP’s of 1.21. Does this fact mean that they were equally effective hurlers in 2011 at limiting hitters ability to produce bases and runs? Let’s use ABA to investigate to see if we can form a more nuanced opinion between the two hurlers who had the  the same WHIP last season.

Lincecum: 111 singles, 48 doubles, two triples,15 homers, 86 BBs in 217 IP
Lewis: 112 singles, 35 doubles, five triples, 35 home runs and 56 BBs in 200.1 IP

Remember, according to WHIP both pitchers were equal with a 1.21 mark. This is not the case according to ABA.

Lincecum:  273 total bases + 86 BB in 217 IP  = 1.65 ABA
Lewis:  337 total bases + 56 BB in 200.1 IP = 1.96 ABA

As you can see, if you were only looking at each pitchers WHIP columns last season, you might miss the fact that Lincecum did a much better job at limiting baseball runners last season (this is also reflected in the ERA – 2.74 for Lincecum and 3.38 for Lewis). Thanks to ABA we can state that, despite equal WHIP marks, Lincecum was easily the more effective pitcher last season. All told there were five pitchers who threw at least 160-innings and posted a WHIP of 1.21. Here are the ABA mark for all five.

1.61 – Madison Bumgarner
1.65 – Tim Lincecum
1.80 – Jeff Karstens
1.83 – Hiroki Kuroda
1.96 – Colby Lewis

As you can tell, WHIP really doesn’t tell the whole story. ABA may not either, but it certainly is a much more accurate gauge of how a pitcher has performed.

Speaking of that, how in the heck to read ABA? Glad you asked. The lower ones ABA the better, but it doesn’t read the same was as WHIP. Whereas the average WHIP last season was 1.32, the league average ABA of all pitchers in 2011 was 1.86.

Here is a rough key you can employ for ABA.

Below 1.50: elite level performance
1.50-1.70: All-Star level
1.71-1.89: Solid major leaguer worthy of counting on in fantasy
1.91-2.10: Barley holding on to an role as a fantasy starter.
2.11 and up: Might as well line up a pitching machine

So there is my brief explanation of Average Bases Allowed, or ABA. Now that you know what it is, you’ll have to read PART II where I will take a look at the hurlers who threw at least 40-innings in 2011.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

By Ray Flowers

SWIP: 2012 – Swingmen & Relievers

Yesterday in SWIP: 2012 – Starters, I gave a detailed description of exactly what SWIP is before I took a look at the starting pitcher pool from 2011. In PART II of my SWIP report, I’ll take a look at all the hurlers who tossed less than 160 innings including a discussion about the men that work the 8th and 9th innings.

* For an explanation of what SWIP is and how it works, click on the above link. Here is the “key” to help you to understand how to read the SWIP marks.

.90 and Up: Excellent season. Hall of Fame level.
.70 to .89:  An all-star performance. Worthy of Cy Young consideration.
.50 to .69:  Borderline all-star to decent starting pitcher. A guy you’d like to have on your staff.
.35 to .50:  A guy who should be nothing more than the 3rd or 4th starter with his club.
.20 to .34:  His major league days are likely numbered.
Below .20: Minor leaguer in training.

The league average in 2011 was 0.45.

Here are the hurlers who tossed between 90 and 160 innings in 2011.

0.87 – Brandon Beachy
Now maybe all of you out there who questioned why I have Beachy so high in my 2012 rankings, which you can find in the 2012 BBGuys Draft Guide, will at least partially, understand my reasoning.

0.79 – Cory Luebke
A great place to pitch, combined with an impressive K-rate, equals a lot of promise.

0.74 – Tommy Hanson
Injures an a new motion are causing some worry, but if healthy he has the tools to be a top-20 starting pitcher.

0.68 – Scott Baker
Keep an eye on his elbow woes, but Baker owns the skills to be a top of the rotation fantasy arm if he can make 30 starts.

0.64 – Marco Estrada
The likely rotation fill in with the Brewers if Shawn Marcum (shoulder) is unable to go at the start of the year.

0.64 – Jake Peavy
He had nearly a four to one K/BB ratio last year, though he has looked awful in camp thus far.

0.60 – Jonathan Niese, Erik Bedard
One pitcher is always hurt, both are usually overlooked.

0.59 – Tom Gorzelanny
Whatever his role (RP or SP), Tom was an effective hurler last year with a career best 2.88 K/BB ratio.

0.56 – Felipe Paulino
Armed with a big arm, Paulino has quietly averaged 8.28 strikeouts per nine in 347.2 big league innings.

0.37 – Johnny Cueto
Totally changed him M.O. last year morphing from a K-arm, to a ground ball machine. SWIP isn’t a fan of that shift.

0.30 – Jair Jurrjens
I warn about him each year. Don’t buy that low ERA, it’s just not sustainable.

0.28 – Francisco Liriano
What an arm, but all those walks are just a killer.

Now on to the arms that worked at least 40 innings but no more than 90.

1.35 – Sergio Romo
I keep saying it, but here it is again. Romo has no shot at the Hall of Fame, but his numbers to this point of the game are as impressive as pretty much any hurler who has every lived.

1.30 – Kenley Jansen
The #1 target by most fantasy pundits from the middle reliever ranks.

1.20 – Jonathan Papelbon
All he does is save 30 games each year while striking out more than 10 batters per nine innings.

1.17- Koji Uehara
Often lost in the shuffle on draft day, this import runs smoother than a top of the line Honda Accord.

1.04 – Rafael Betancourt
Some doubt whether or not he can handle the 9th inning all season. That’s fine since he’s never done it for an entire year. However, don’t doubt the skills – they are elite.

0.99 – Sergio Santos
Some are worried about what he will do for an encore in his first year in Toronto. SWIP isn’t concerned.

0.98 – David Robertson
He’s shed the walking boot and appears to be well on his way to being ready for Opening Day after a scare with his foot. Could represent a nice buy low option on draft day.

0.97 – Vinnie Pestano
Looks like Chris Perez might be healthy enough for Opening Day after all, but that doesn’t mean it still wouldn’t be wise to roster Pestano.

0.96 – Rex Brothers
When you blow cheese like he does it doesn’t matter if you are pitching at a mile above seawater.

0.92 – Greg Holland
Never mentioned as an elite bullpen arm, but the guy had 74 Ks and just 19 walks in 60 innings last year.

0.43 – Javy Guerra
Will open the year as the Dodgers’ closer even though he is, literally, a third of the pitcher as Jansen according to SWIP.

0.42 – Jeff Samardzija
He has a great arm that led to 87 Ks in 88 innings last season, but the young fireballer simply has to reign in the free passes (he issued 50 last year).

0.39 – Neftali Feliz
Transitioning to the starting rotation, Feliz was dominant in the second half last year but his overall work places him as a below average SWIP arm.

0.32 – Matt Capps
How long can he hold on to the Twins 9th inning job? Not long if he repeats last years effort.

0.27 – Luke Gregerson
What happened to that once dominating arm out of the Padres’ pen?

For those of you who want to investigate further, here is the BBGuys-SWIP-2011-PDF file that lists all men who tossed at least 40-innings last season.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

By Ray Flowers

SWIP: 2012 – Starters

Following the simple methodology of WHIP (walks + hits divided by innings pitched), I invented a new measure of a pitchers dominance called SWIP (it must be the mad scientist in me), in order to better understand which pitchers may possess the skills necessary to have success on a big league hill. Never heard of SWIP you say? Well I’m about to change that.

PART I – WHAT IS SWIP?

S- Strikeouts (abbreviated as K)
W- Walks (abbreviated as BB)
IP- Innings Pitched

Numerically speaking, the formula for SWIP works along the same lines as WHIP. SWIP is determined by the following equation:

Strikeouts minus Walks divided by Innings Pitched equals SWIP.

SWIP = (K – BB) / IP

Another way to look at this is to say that for each positive result, the recording of an out in the form of a strikeout, the pitcher receives a (+1). For each negative encounter, in the form of a walk, he receives a (-1). Simple enough right? Here is an example of how you can figure out SWIP so you can see what I’m talking about (and yes, it really is as simple as it sounds).

EXAMPLE

Mike Leake had 118 Ks and 38 BBs in 167.2 IP in 2011.
(118-38) / 167.2
80 / 167.2
0.48 SWIP

Leake’s SWIP for the 2011 season was therefore 0.48.

Though SWIP is recorded in the same manner as WHIP, the way to read the results is slightly different. Whereas the lower the WHIP the better one has performed, SWIP works in the opposite direction: the higher the SWIP the better (it should also be pointed out that there are some limitations to SWIP).

Here is a rough estimate of what the results mean to help you to put things in perspective, a key if you will.

.90 and Up: Excellent season. Hall of Fame level.
.70 to .89:  An all-star performance. Worthy of Cy Young consideration.
.50 to .69:  Borderline all-star to decent starting pitcher. A guy you’d like to have on your staff.
.35 to .50:  A guy who should be nothing more than the 3rd or 4th starter with his club.
.20 to .34:  His major league days are likely numbered.
Below .20: Minor leaguer in training.

Let’s take a look at how all major league hurlers performed in 2011.

34,448 Strikeouts
15,018 Walks
43,527.1 IP

So in order to find out the major league average for SWIP during the 2011 season we simply plug the numbers into our simple equation.

SWIP = (K – BB) / IP
(34448-15018) / 43527.1
19470 / 43527.1
0.4473
SWIP = 0.45

Last year’s 0.45 mark is a major league best in the 21st century as the rate keeps inching upward.

2011: 0.45 SWIP
2010: 0.43 SWIP
2009: 0.39 SWIP
2008: 0.38 SWIP
2007: 0.37 SWIP
2006: 0.37 SWIP
2005: 0.36 SWIP
2004: 0.36 SWIP
2003: 0.34 SWIP
2002: 0.35 SWIP
2001: 0.38 SWIP
2000: 0.30 SWIP

Here are some notes on the pitchers who tossed at least 160-innings last year.

Here are the leaders for the 2011 season (minimum 162 innings)

0.91 – Zack Greinke
An elite K-arm last season, Greinke led all starting pitchers with a 10.54 K/9 mark, and he walked about a batter fewer, per nine innings, than the average big league arm (2.36 BB/9).

0.84 – Cliff Lee
When you strikeout more than a batter per inning (9.12 per nine), and walk only 1.62 per nine, you are an elite performer.

0.83 – Clayton Kershaw
Massive Ks are his calling card, and last season he walked a mere 2.08 batters per nine.

0.79 – Roy Halladay
Concerns about his velocity in spring notwithstanding, the guy just doesn’t beat himself (1.35 walks per nine).

0.75 – Justin Verlander
Huge arm, huge K totals and a better than expected walk rate (2.04 per nine).

0.71 – Yovani Gallardo, CC Sabathia, Madison Bumgarner
A young K artist, the most consistent lefty in the game, and a young lefty from the NL West.

Some names that stood out, for good or bad.

0.62 – Tim Lincecum
A four year low in K/9 coupled with a four year high in BB/9 has his SWIP headed in the wrong direction.

0.56 – Ted Lilly
Always overlooked on draft day. Lilly simply goes out, doesn’t beat himself, and always seems to strike out more batter than people realize.

0.52 – Gio Gonzalez, Matt Cain
Two young arms who ply their trade in the Bay Area. Gio G is the higher upside K artist, but Cain’s ability to walk fewer batters has them tied in this measure.

0.43 – Edwin Jackson
What a shock. Edwin Jackson being average at something (recall that the big league average was 0.45 in 2011).

0.25 – Ivan Nova
I wrote about Nova in this Player Profile. SWIP speaks to the concern I expressed there.

0.24 – Jeremy Hellickson
I wrote about Hellickson in this Player Profile. SWIP speaks to the concern I expressed there.

Tomorrow I’ll discuss those pitchers who didn’t throw than 160 innings in 2011, and I’ll also have the entire list of hurlers who threw at least 40 innings ranked by their SWIP marks.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

By Ray Flowers

Punting Categories – A Good Idea?

People ask me all the time, ‘Ray, do you believe in punting?‘ My response, after some sarcastic remark about disliking the use of any kind of kicker in football, is that I do not believe in “punting” in fantasy baseball. What is “punting” and why am I against it?

By the way, how amazing would it be, after that lead in, if I didn’t even bother to address “punting?” Sometimes I just get this feisty feeling that comes over me an I feel like rebelling. Maybe that’s why my brother’s wife calls me sassy. Luckily for you, today isn’t one of those days.

What is “Punting?”

“Punting” a category means that you simply give it up (most often people refer to the saves category when they talk about punting). The idea is that a category, let’s take saves for example, can be pretty costly to add to a squad on draft day, and there is a lot of turnover at the position each year. Why not just skip worrying about saves and just try to rack up points in the other four pitching categories? People also talk about punting steals on offense, but the fact is you can “punt” any category if you really wanted to. The bottom line is that when you “punt” a category you simply do not worry at all about it, in essence eliminating it from consideration as a category you’re going to try score points in.

Is Punting a Viable Strategy?

Let’s break the strategy down using a concrete example that everyone can understand.

Let’s assume we’re talking about a 12 team mixed league.

In general, you need to accrue about 80 percent of the available point total to win a league. Given that there are 10 categories in the standard setup, this means a maximum point total for a 12 team league would be 120 points (10 categories, 12 points for first place finish in each, 11 for a second, 10 for a third etc.). If the league maximum is 120 points, and we’re targeting 80 percent of that number as the level we will likely need to achieve in order to win the league, then we will need our hypothetical team to record at least 96 points (obviously there are leagues where you might need 100 or more points to emerge the victor). Therefore, we have nine remaining categories – remember we are “punting” one of them –  to earn 95 points (you get one point for finishing in last spot). Ninety-five divided by nine is 10.6, meaning we’re going to need to finish no lower than third place across the board in order to get to 96 points, but in reality we’re going to have to finish first or second in every other category. Can a team do that? Of course it can, but you also have to realize that by removing a category you’ve significantly reduced your margin for error. To state it again. We need 96 points in our model. We have only nine categories that we are targeting. Let’s say in one of our nine categories our team finishes in 7th spot. That would leave us with six points in that category. With our remaining eight categories we would need 89 points. That’s 11.1 points per category meaning we would have to nearly finish in first place in all other eight categories to win the league. Is it possible to win this way? Yes it is. But doesn’t it seem inherently risky?

I haven’t addressed a major component of this strategy that will have to work in order for you to win a league.

Will you select the right players to build your team around?

Last year if you had Hanley Ramirez, Carl Crawford and Stephen Strasburg as three of your anchors you would have been feeling pretty good about your team, right? By the end of the season you likely were puking if those were three of your building blocks. Will injury strike? Will players perform to expected levels? Are your expectations/projections for players accurate to begin with? Sometimes you can do everything right with your analysis and the players, for whatever reason, simply don’t perform. If you cut out a 10th of your playing field by removing an entire category, you’re cutting down the available pool that you are shooting to add points in. If you do that, you had better hope that your players perform up to par, or it could be a very long season.

Can you win a league “punting” a category? You certainly can. However, you had better be damn sure about the players you roster because you greatly increase your risk by completely ignoring an entire category in the fantasy game.

Did you get your copy of the BBGuys 2012 Draft Guide?

By Ray Flowers

LABR: An Experts Take

The League of Alternative Baseball Reality, or LABR for short, just completed the 19th draft in the history of the event (12 experts drafted in the American League, and 13 in the National League, this past weekend in Phoenix). I was graciously invited to the NL-only draft, thank you to Steve Gardner for that (you can read Steve’s thoughts on the draft in this piece), and though my team has been roundly lambasted since the drafts completion I still had a great time at the event and look forward to the marathon that is the baseball season. Before I offer some thoughts on the draft, here’s who I was able to roster on my squad (for a look at the entire auction here is a Google Doc with all the selections).

C: Wilin Rosario ($8), David Ross (2)
1B: Garret Jones (10)
2B: Daniel Murphy (17)
3B: Placido Polanco (10)
SS: Rafael Furcal (12)
MI: Chris Nelson (4)
CI: Derrek Lee (3)
OF: Andrew McCutchen (33), Dexter Fowler (19), Chris Young (20), Alfonso Soriano (10), Carlos Quentin (13)
UT: Nate McLouth (4)

PITCHERS: Madison Bumgarner (19), Tommy Hanson (14), Rafael Betancourt (16), Wandy Rodriguez (10), Gio Gonzalez (13), Sergio Romo (6), Luke Gregerson (3), Takashi Saito (2), Jeff Samardzija (1), Erik Surkamp (1)

BENCH: Ross Detwiler, Rick Ankiel, Blake DeWitt, Tom Gorzelanny, Logan Forsythe, J.D. Drew

Some general notes.

In this league trading is allowed. That might be something I will need to explore to bolster some areas of weakness.

There is an odd quirk in LABR. All players that were drafted at the auction table need to be in your active roster. The only want to remove a player from your lineup is if he is placed on the DL or demoted to the minors, or of course you can always just cut a player. However, if Dexter Fowler is hitting .199 in April I can’t just put him on the bench, he has to remain active (Chris Liss of Rotowire.com won the AL-Only league last year despite having to hold on to Adam Dunn all year).

As for my team…

Yes I left money on the table, and yes that was a mistake. I’d pinpoint two areas where I should have spent more. (1) I should have added Aaron Hill up the middle. I backed out at $14 and Wolf/Colton rostered him for $15. If I had gotten Hill the last quarter of my team would have looked different, but I certainly could have used him given my lack of infield strength. (2) I should have gone the extra dollar on either Ryan Dempster or Ricky Nolasco who went for $9. Could have also gone the extra dollar on Chris Volstad who I let go (maybe a few bucks to Roy Oswalt would have been nice too). Everyone who follows my work knows I’m a fan of both. Instead, I ended up with Erik Surkamp as my final starter.

Everyone is bashing me for my weak infield, and I can certainly see why there is concern. A big key for me is obviously what happens with Derrek Lee. If he signs with someone a 20 homer, 70 RBI season would be huge for my club. However, he might retire, he might end up in the AL or he might end up playing as a part timer in the NL. People have also questioned my catchers, and with good reason. But to be fair, catchers were going for some pretty high dollar amounts. Would you have paid $10 for Jonathan Lucroy, $8 for Ryan Hanigan or $5 for Jason Castro? Maybe, maybe not, right? Another key is the health of Rafael Furcal and Placido Polanco. If they play 135 games each then this situation looks a lot better. If they don’t, look out below.

Is the infield weak? Yes it is, but I think some have overlooked the strength of my outfield. For my money, it’s the best group in the league. There might be valid concerns with Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Quentin, but if the both hit 25 homers with 80 RBIs, as my 4th and 5th outfielders in an NL-only league, that’s pretty damn good. Chris Young might hit .240, but he’s also been a 20/20 guy three of the last five years while averaging 91 runs scored a season the past two years. At this point everyone knows I’m on the Dexter Fowler train, I might be the conductor, but I really have high hopes for him putting it all together for a full season. And then there is Andrew McCutchen who is a wonderful foundational building block.

On the hill, I love my top-4 arms: MadBum, Hanson, Wandy and Gonzalez. I took a risk on Hanson, but I thought at $14 it was worth it even with the health concerns. As for Gio, I’m shocked I got him actually. I threw him out there for $13 fully expecting him to go for at least $18. Ten seconds later he was part of my team. Funny thing, after the :10 seconds of silence when no one pushed his bid up I then heard three teams at the table say that he was a great buy.

I overpaid for Rafael Betancourt at $16. This was another mistake I made – i.e. I waited to long to jump into the closer mix. I incorrectly thought that people would grow weary of paying $15 for every closer that was thrown out for bid. They didn’t. At the point I added Betancourt he was the only legitimate closer left on the board other than a guy like Frank Francisco, so I was forced to overpay to add Rafael who has elite skills but has never shown the ability to work the 9th inning before the last month of 2012. I should have jumped into the closer mix earlier – I might have saved a few bucks.

In the end, the truth is every team in an NL-only league with 13 clubs is going to have holes. Hopefully things break right for me an I’m in contention late. If not, I’ll review all the correct an incorrect decisions I made over the course of the season and come back even more prepared in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

K-BAD: Experts Draft, Part II

For the last few years I’ve been fortunate enough to be invited to participate an experts league with the crew from KFFL.com. The league, called K-BAD (KFFL’s Baseball Analysis Draft), pits 12 experts against one another in a 12 team mixed league draft with 28 man rosters. For a breakdown of who is in the league and how everything shakes out, not to mention who I drafted in rounds 1-14 see K-BAD: Experts Draft, Part I.

In what follows I’ll list my thoughts about my selections from pick 15-28. I’ll then give a quick run down of my squad.

Round 15: Dexter Fowler
He gained some muscle this offseason, and he flat out exploded in the second half of the season: .288 with a .880 OPS, 51 runs, 10 steals in 68 games.

Round 16: Wandy Rodriguez
This is a solid skill set hurler who gets no love because he’s on the Astros. As a 5th starter on my team he’s slotted in the right spot.

Round 17: Kurt Suzuki
I wanted to wait another go round for a backstop, I’d prefer to take a closer here, but I just didn’t have much faith in the remaining backstops.

Round 18: Frank Francisco
Great arm will be given an opportunity to close with Mets. Could have gone OF here, but I really needed to get that second closer arm.

Round 19: Brennan Boesch
It was Boesch, Joyce or Vernon Wells for my 5th outfielder. Couldn’t see any of them being around the next time I made a pick.

Round 20: Vernon Wells
Well color me surprised. Wells was indeed available after I considered taking him in the last round. He makes a solid UT option this late.

Round 21: Ryan Doumit
Of all the remaining backstops Doumit is the one I can see going .275-15-70 if he can stay healthy. Per 450 at-bats in his career: .271-15-61-54-2.

Round 22: Scott Baker
I’ve been staring at Baker for two rounds now. If healthy, there’s little reason to think he won’t be a top-50 hurler at worst, so this is good value this late.

Round 23: Rafael Furcal
I wanted to go with another starting pitcher here, but I looked at the remaining options for my backup at short and Furcal appeared to be well ahead of the remaining options.

Round 24: Ricky Nolasco
Once more into the breach… one of these years it’s going to happen. I’m convinced. I feel like Ahab from Moby Dick chasing my White Whale.

Round 25: Daniel Murphy
To get a guy who could hit .300 while qualifying at first, second and third… sign me up. Big fan of a reserve pick who covers so many positions.

Round 26: Chris Davis
It’s like when you walk into a car dealership intending to buy a sedan and walk out with a sports car. The lure of Davis and his power is too strong for me to break.

Round 27: Sergio Romo
(1) I could use solid ratios with a shot at a few saves. (2) With a short bench of only five guys I felt I needed a hurler over another bat.

Round 28: David Robertson
Went with this great bullpen arm instead of starters Homer Bailey, Aaron Harang, A.J. Burnett and Ryan Vogelsong, Obviously there will be plenty of arms left on the waiver-wire.

My Squad.

C: Kurt Suzuki, Ryan Doumit
1B: Miguel Cabrera
2B: Howie Kendrick
3B: Kevin Youkilis
SS: Derek Jeter
MI: Dustin Ackley
CI: Mark Reynolds
OF: Matt Holliday, B.J. Upton, Shane Victorino, Dexter Fowler, Brennan Boesch
UT: Vernon Wells

Pitchers: Felix Hernandez, Ricky Romero, Josh Beckett, Brandon Morrow, Wandy Rodriguez, Scott Baker, Ricky Nolasco, Sergio Santos, Frank Francisco

Bench: Rafael Furcal, Daniel Murphy, Chris Davis, Sergio Romo, David Robertson

I’ve got a lot of flexibility with the club as Cabrera, Kendrick, Reynolds, Davis and Murphy are all going to be multi position guys. I could be a bit light on steals, but I should still finish middle of the pack there. I like the late add of Daniel Murphy to help offset a guy like Reynolds in the batting average category. On the hill, I think I again showed that you can wait on hurlers and still assemble a strong staff. My top-5 arms could all give me 175 Ks, and Baker/Nolasco could both be near elite if healthy and lucky (that obviously has not been the case the past few years though). I might be light on saves but with this draft happening so early in the year, before training camp even started, I didn’t feel the need to reach on bullpen arms when so many situations are still unsettled.

I’ll keep you posted throughout the year on how the club is doing.

Finally, here is my roster, along with all the others from the K-BAD Draft.

By Ray Flowers

K-BAD: Experts Draft, Part I

For the last few years I’ve been fortunate enough to be invited to participate an experts league with the crew from KFFL.com. The league, called K-BAD (KFFL’s Baseball Analysis Draft), pits 12 experts against one another in a 12 team mixed league draft with 28 man rosters. The participants for this years event are as follows:

Doug Anderson, RotoExperts
Howard Bender, Fangraphs
Mark Chamberlain, Baseball Sharks
Yours Truly
Steve Gardner, USA Today
Joe Hamrahi, Baseball Prospectus
Tim Heaney, KFFL
Bill Macey, Baseball HQ
Nicholas Minnix, KFFL
Jeff Paur, RTSports
Josh Shepardson, The Hardball Times
Pasko Varnica, Mastersball

*For full bios on all 12 of the participants click on this link to K-BAD Bios.

One of the unique aspects of this draft is that the participants are asked to record their thoughts as they work through the slow draft (it’s done over days while all of us pound out our daily work). As a result, KFFL presents a unique look into the mind of an expert to expose “experts” thoughts and decision making process at the time each of the selections are made. For the full 28 round analysis of the draft, from all the experts, simply click on the link to K-Bad Round Analysis.

Since I’m sure you’re all riveted as to how my team came together, I thought I would reproduce the results of my squad in a couple of articles here at BaseballGuys. So without further ado, here is how the draft played out for me.

Round 1: Miguel Cabrera
Albert Pujols was a strong consideration, as was Troy Tulowitzki, but ultimately I decided on Cabrera for three reasons: the addition of Prince Fielder, the fact that Cabrera can hit .340, and the soon to be third base eligibility he will pick up.

Round 2: Matt Holliday
Overlooked this year by some, I have little doubt he’ll return to something like a .300-25-100 line in St. Louis even with Albert Pujols out of the mix. Was really hoping that Andrew McCutchen would fall to me at this spot, but missed out on him by a few picks.

Round 3: Kevin Youkilis
Really didn’t love this pick. Was tempted to go with another outfielder, but settled for the stability that Youkilis should bring. Plus, everyone is likely to go heavy on third base, so the next time I pick I’ll be hard pressed to find a comparable talent to Youkilis.

Round 4: B.J. Upton
I was hoping that Ben Zobrist would make it back to me. Obviously he didn’t. I considered Michael Bourn but went with the better all-around performer in Upton. With Cabrera/Youkilis/Holliday I should be able to handle Upton’s poor average.

Round 5: Felix Hernandez
I don’t usually go for pitching early, but I’d bet the 5th and 6th rounds are going to be filled with starters being grabbed. There’s nothing wrong with grabbing a guy like Hernandez that should give me 200 Ks and 220-innings of elite work as my staff anchor. Also considered Zack Greinke.

Round 6: Howie Kendrick
A perennial option to hit .300, he’s also likely to go 10/10, possibly even 15/15. I was tempted to take Weeks, but look at Week’s games played mark – an average of just 107 games a season the past five years. Give me Kendrick who also has OF eligibility.

Round 7: Shane Victorino
Solid, consistent, across the board producer. That’s Shane Victorino. I was tempted by Shin-Soo Choo here, but I’m worried about Choo returning to .300, and I don’t know if he’s going to swipe 20 bases anymore either. Shane might be slightly boring to some, but he’s a fantastic 3rd outfielder.

Round 8: Mark Reynolds
People might laugh at this selection, but we all know that third base starts to thin out pretty quickly, and Reynolds covers me at first base as well. His average is woeful, but he is one of only five men to have 30 homers, 85 RBI and 75 runs scored each of the past three years.

Round 9: Derek Jeter
Boring? Yes. Old? Yes. Declining skill set? Yes. So why take him? After the selection of Reynolds with my last pick, I need the .290 average that Jeter should bring. There are more exciting options left at shortstop, but I’m looking for some average stability.

Round 10: Ricky Romero
It’s the time in the draft to start building my pitching staff. Romero may not be elite, but he’ll fit in nicely behind King Felix as I have two power sinking fastball types. Considered going closer, but I’ll wait there.

Round 11: Josh Beckett
I considered Matt Garza and Brandon Morrow here. Garza is as consistent as they come, and Morrow has massive upside, but I split the difference and grabbed Beckett.

Round 12: Brandon Morrow
There might be safer pitchers left on the board, but there are none with 250 K potential. If he keeps the walks down again he could shave a run off his ERA.

Round 13: Dustin Ackley
I was tempted to go with a fourth outfielder here and if I didn’t already have three third base eligible guys (Reynolds, Youkilis and Cabrera) I’d have taken Martin Prado.

Round 14: Sergio Santos
The run on closers commenced, and I jumped in the mix. Was tempted to an address my catcher’s spot which is open, but I went with that huge arm of Santos.

In PART II I’ll continue my look at the selections I made before giving an overall wrap up.

By Ray Flowers

Category Targets

If you haven’t heard, I’ve written a 2012 Fantasy Draft Guide that is now available at BaseballGuys.com. If you’re wondering what type of analysis awaits you in the over 50-page Guide, here is an inkling of the type of material you can expect to find there (in addition to the Player Rankings, more than 600 of them actually, that are the heart of The Guide, there are a ton of articles breaking down various aspects of the fantasy game).

People ask me all the time about projections. As I’ve written previously, the best one can hope for with projections is 70 or so percent accuracy. The point being, most projection systems aren’t very good, and in truth, a rolling three year average of numbers is likely to be about as accurate in the long run as any projection system that you use. That’s why I hesitate to give number projections each year (I also hesitate to employ a top-300 list, and you can read more about that at the link). However, there’s no way around it, people love to see “Albert Pujols .315-38-118-112-8” when they go about trying to put together a championship caliber roster, even if the projector has no real way of knowing if his projection will be accurate (think Adam Dunn last year who everyone thought would hit 40 homers with 100 RBI. More on Dunn can be found in his Player Profile).

Nowadays, with the advent of this thing called a computer, and the myriad of software one can use to track a fantasy draft, people often try to reach “category targets” on draft day. What do I mean by that? I mean what numbers, in each of the fantasy categories that your league employs, do you need to attain to win a category? What number do you need to reach a top-3 finish in category? That’s what targeting tries to help you to do – understand the numbers that you need to reach in each category to have a shot at your league championship. Here are the issues with this line of thought.

1- You have to be able to access historical data for your setup. If it’s a standard situation like a 5×5, 12 team league, an I’ll give some numbers for that setup in a minute, you’re in good shape. However, if you’re in a 7×7 league, or a points league, or anything non-traditional, the numbers you will need to target are different, so having access to the league standings for the past few years can help you to gauge where you need to be. The numbers also obviously change if you are in a 10-team league versus a 15-team league.

2- Just because you have the “target numbers” prior to your draft does not mean you’re home free. Again, you have to depend on your projections being accurate, and that’s a whole other level of uncertainty. If you have Pujols projected at 30 homers you might be 10 short of your target when your team is assembled. If you have Pujols at 40 homers in your projections maybe you hit your target number exactly. Will Pujols hit 30 and leave you wanting? Will he hit 40 and give you exactly what you expected? Will he hit 45 homers and exceed your expectations? Remember, your ability to reach your “targets” is completely dependent on the accuracy of your projections.

3- Given my statement at the start of this piece, that projections are only 70 or so percent accurate, you have to be very careful with using targets as your only guide. If you think you need 280 homers to reach your target, and your projections have you at 295 with your assembled team, you clearly don’t need to go looking for homers anymore, right? What if your projections for your hitters though end up being only 75 percent right? That would leave you with around 220 homers, well below your needed target number. And that is my main point here, and why I don’t slavishly use”target” numbers on draft day (in fact, I’m one of a rare breed anymore – I do not use a computer to track numbers on draft day. Maybe I’m missing out, but at the same time my track record is plenty good enough to show that what I’m doing works for me). If you only look at target numbers you may make decisions at the draft table, or on early season waivers, that ultimately hurt your team (maybe you should have been adding power instead of going for speed to hit your targets). As I’ve said before, drafting is much more an art than it is a science.

With that, here are some simple target numbers for 5×5, 12 team leagues.

100 Wins, 3.50 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 1250 Ks, 100 saves

.270-260-1000-1050-160

In the end, like any other bit of analysis, “targets” are just part of the puzzle. They can certainly be helpful when you’re trying to get a handle on how your team should perform so there’s no reason not to use them, but don’t get so tied into those targets, and your projections, that you make bad decisions on draft day because you are only looking at some predetermined set of numbers.

By Ray Flowers

Part III: Vegas, and the FSTA Draft

My three part series on Las Vegas wraps up today. In PART I thanks was given to many of the people in the industry an I explained some of the exploits that I was a part of over the weekend in Sin City. In PART II I took a look at the team I drafted for the FSTA Experts League that was covered live on air by SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Today I’ll finalize the week in Vegas by giving some thoughts on how the FSTA Draft played out.

For the full results click on FSTA 2012 Experts Draft.

Anthony Perri of Fantistics set the room on fire taking Troy Tulowitzki with the first overall pick. He’s a big believer in position scarcity and put his money where his mouth is. Tim Heaney of KFFL then took Albert Pujols second leaving my #1 guy, Matt Kemp, for Steve Gardner/Howard Kaman of USA Today to grab third overall.

I’d much rather have Prince Fielder at #13 than Adrian Gonzalez at #6.

The 21st overall selection was Mike Stanton. My question is this – should he be taken that high? If he hits .270 with 45 homers and 110 RBI that’s great, but unless he steals 15 bases I don’t think he returns this value, not with his batting average woes. Is he really any different than Adam Dunn in his heyday?

The first pitcher taken was Clayton Kershaw at #23. I don’t have a problem with him going off the board as the top pitcher, but you know me, I’m not a fan of taking a hurler this early.

The third round turned out to be the round of risk. Starlin Castro was taken and he’s dealing with that off the field issue with the ladies. Carl Crawford was taken there as well, and we learned about 13 hours after the draft was completed that Crawford had wrist surgery and that leaves him somewhat doubtful to be good to go on opening day. Another casualty of having a draft this early were Glenn Colton and Rick Wolf who took Victor Martinez in the third. Sixteen hours later we found out that he had a torn ACL that will likely end his season.

Per usual, the experts waited to draft starting pitching. Don’t plan on being able to take Felix Hernandez in the 5th round like Chris Liss of Rotowire did in your draft. CC Sabathia and Cole Hamels also went in the 5th round.

Craig Kimbrel was the first closer off the board. He was taken in the 8th round.

I like Vernon Wells as much as the next guy and can see a comeback this season, but taking him in the 9th round ahead of guys like Chris Young or Billy Butler, who were also taken in the 10th, I’m not a fan of that.

Ron Shandler, who knows this game as well as anyone, has a faith in Cory Leubke taking him ahead of guys like Shaun Marcum, Justin Masterson, Tim Hudson, Hiroki Kuroda etc.

I’m a fan of R.A. Dickey in the 29th round as long as he doesn’t kill himself climbing mountains this offseason.

The best pick of the draft or the worst? The answer to that question is likely to be Javier Vazquez who was taken in round 28 by Fantasy Sharks. If he retires it was a wasted pick, but if he somehow ends up on the hill this season this could be a difference making selection.

How the mighty have fallen. Francisco Liriano was taken in the 26th round. He’s well worth the risk at that point (he was my target for that round). Another perpetually injured an underachieving lefty is Erik Bedard. He was taken in the 22nd.

Justin Smoak in the 12th round? What does Jeff Mans of Fantasy Alarm know that we don’t? I don’t think anyone on his team is old enough to have a five o’clock shadow.

Everyone had a laptop out during the draft but myself and Charlie Wiegert if I’m not mistaken. Old school.

Todd Helton is a shell of his former self, but as a 27th round selection I’ve got no complaint at all.

Jason Bay in the 23rd round sounds absurdly low doesn’t it? He’s gotta be able to outperform that. His teammate, Daniel Murphy, went in the same round. I think that was an excellent selection.

Look at the team from Mastersball. It shows you what you can accomplish when you you take stable players early even if the names don’t jump off the page at you. You end up with a pretty solid squad.

Buster Posey went in the middle of the 6th round. If healthy he will surpass that cost. If he has any setbacks physically that’s gonna be a pick that Liss will be able to look at as one of the reasons his team struggled.

Adam Wainwright in the 8th round? If healthy we’ve seen what he can do, but coming back from Tommy John surgery you can’t be thinking he’s gonna throw 200-innings this year. I’d rather have 9th round guys like Gio Gonzalez, Matt Garza and Madison Bumgarner. Hell, I’d rather have my first four arms.

Keeping the dream alive. Justin Morneau was taken in the 14th while Kendrys Morales went in round 19.

By Ray Flowers