Part II: Vegas, BaseballGuys FSTA Team

Yesterday in Vegas, The FSTA & More, I regaled everyone with my wondrous stories of my recent trip to Vegas – and boy were they good ones if you missed it. Today, I’ll return to more standard fare in breaking down the team that I drafted at the event. In PART III of the series, I’ll give my thoughts on how the draft went overall by highlighting other teams selections.

13-Team Mixed League
29 rounds
23 starters: 14 hitters (C,C,1B,2B,3B,SS,MI,CI,5 OFs, UT), 9 pitchers
5×5 scoring
I had the 10th overall selection.
Here’s my team (# in parenthesis is round taken).

C: Yadier Molina (9), Ryan Doumit (17)
1B: Carlos Pena (15), Derrek Lee (22)
2B: Dustin Pedroia (2), Brandon Phillips (5)
3B: Evan Longoria (1), Mat Gamel (25), Ian Stewart (28)
SS: Yunel Escobar (13)
OF: Matt Holliday (3), Michael Bourn (4), Shane Victorino (6), Martin Prado (12), Chris Heisey (19), Matt Joyce (20), Franklin Gutierrez (27)

P: Ricky Romero (7), C.J. Wilson (8), Brandon Morrow (10), Wandy Rodriguez (11), Sergio Santos (14), Chris Perez (16), Roy Oswalt (18), Scott Baker (21), Tim Stauffer (23), Tyler Clippard (24), Javy Guerra (26), Brandon Lyon (29)

Let me explain a few things.

There is no trading in this league (I guess they don’t trust “experts.” Honestly, non-trading leagues are often better because they eliminate someone making a nonsensical trade). There is the draft and then the FAAB process to add free agents, but there is no way to bolster a squad through trading.

This draft is held so early, I mean they haven’t even showed up to camp yet, not to mention that Carlos Pena wasn’t on a team when I drafted and Derrek Lee is still without a squad, that there is certainly some guesswork/luck that goes into the shape of the roster (another example is that I drafted Heisey and literally 10 minutes later news broke that the Reds had signed Ryan Ludwick). This is pointed out, specifically, when you look at the relievers on my squad. Santos and Perez are seemingly locked into their roles as closer, but Guerra has to deal with Kenley Jansen, and it’s unknown if Lyon will be healthy enough to even start the year, let alone if he will be the closer. Still, given the high cost that it will take to snag closers when we open up the FAAB process in two months, I figured it made the most chance to take a shot on a couple of guys late, an if they don’t end up closing I’ll just hit the waiver-wire early in the year.

This league has middle infield and corner infield starters. That’s why I took both Pedroia and Phillips. It might seem odd to take two upper echelon second sackers, but my team will be uber strong up the middle unless things go horrible wrong whereas other teams will be scrambling with guys like Sean Rodriguez and Cliff Pennington as their starters at middle infield.
I decided to roster two third sackers that have potential, but serious questions, late. If either Gamel or Stewart hits, I’ll be happy as all get out. Will both or either hit? Ask me in six months. The selections will look genius, or more likely, dumb at the end of the year.

Doumit in the 17th round was a solid move IF he gets those elusive 400 at-bats, which certainly seems possible if he sees time at C, 1B, DH and OF. Do you trust Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau to stay healthy in Minnesota? I don’t.

I’ve never waited this long to take a first baseman, ever. Pena in the 15th round is solid value, the homers and run production should be there for the Rays’ first baseman, but that average is gonna kill me. Hopefully guys like Pedroia, Prado and Holliday will help to offset Pena’s sickly batting average mark.

In opposition to my wait on first baseman, I went earlier than I normally do on the hill. Why? It’s where the value was (you have to be able to roll with the draft). I ended up taking three lefties in my top four selections (not on purpose). Romero, Wilson, and Rodriguez all have 175 Ks arms while righty Morrow has a 200+ arm, and though their ratios my not be great they certainly are a strong top-4 that could be huge if they all produce like their talents dictate. Oswalt/Baker/Stauffer all have questions, that’s why they were available for me to draft late, but again, I like the arms. My bullpen is admittedly thin. I love Santos and what he did last year, and he should be able to do the same thing this year with the Blue Jays. Perez makes me nervous. Too many walks an a declining strikeout rate obviously scared everyone else too which is why Perez lasted so long. Still, the Indians have faith in him, and I need an arm that was a “lock” to open the year in the role. Guerra and Lyon could give me 40 saves, or five. We’ll just have to see.

Overall I’m happy with the squad. I’ve got aces at second, third and the outfield. I think I’ve got a solid duo behind the dish. The starters, while lacking an elite arm, pack a ton of potential. I’ve got pop at the corners, the leagues best speed demon in the outfield (Bourn), and a series of players who should help to produce across the board. Once more unto the breach…

By Ray Flowers

Vegas, The FSTA & More

I normally don’t go provocative with my titles, but I almost put “hookers” in the headline. Why is that? No, it’s not because there’s a charge on my American Express card over the weekend, but I was in Vegas for the past few days and there was a ton that went on. There were radio shows, baseball drafts, networking, booze, the aforementioned hookers, an a plethora of good times. I’ll hit on some of the highlights of the event in this piece. In Part II, I’ll break down the FSTA Experts Baseball Draft that took place and tell you how I felt my team turned out. In Part III, I’ll take a look at how others in the draft evaluated players to give you some insights on what the “experts” are thinking when it comes to a host of other players. Here we go.

I arrived on Saturday and went straight to the UNLV campus where I joined Jeff Mans for three hours on the Fantasy Alarm Show on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. We rocked it for three hours, pulled the same trick on Sunday as well, and let me tell you the studios there rock. Thanks to Fantasy Alarm, and Jeff in particular, for letting me tag along all weekend with them. They certainly classed me up.

Thanks to Matt Deutsch, program director of SiriusXM. Not only did he and Rob Touzet run a tight ship that made all of the on-site broadcasts we did enjoyable, those two also know how to have a good time when the microphones are off.

Thanks to Kyle Elfrink and Kay Adams, my capable co-hosts. Kay was the belle of the ball, who can blame anyone for thinking that way since she is about four levels above the rest of us in attractiveness, and Kyle just did his thing like he always does – smooth my friend.

I’d like to thanks Mike Beacom an everyone at the Fantasy Sports Writers Association for awarding me the 2011 Best Baseball Series Award. I knew I was one of the three finalists but I thought I had no chance to win, so I made a bet. If I won I would have to carry around my trophy all night. You’d be surprised at how many women weren’t that impressed with the striking trophy, but the right ones were and that is all that counts. A special thanks also goes out to Peter Schoenke of Rotowire.com for nominating me for the award. Finally, thanks to Matthew Berry of ESPN. For some reason he keeps talking up my BaseballGuys’ Twitter Account as something you have to be following. If you aren’t following get on it or Matthew will be coming after you.

Thank you all.

Here are some other highlights, in no particular order, that occurred over the weekend (and yes, names have been altered to protect identities, though the stories are 100 percent accurate).

At some point we ended up at 7-Eleven and bought the king of all fruity drinks – the Blue Hawaiian by Boone’s.

I had no idea that I was such a good dancer. A highlight of the time on the dance floor was when I approached a pretty brunette. I was just about ready to get my “grind on” when an older woman barged in to cut off my path to the beauty. Turned out it was her mom. I’m not an ageist or anything, but how did I end up dancing with a 58 year old woman, in Vegas of all places? I didn’t find out if she wanted to be my sugar momma.

A lady stopped by our table at a club and offered us blow. We declined. That same lady also offered to “party” with us all night if you get my drift. We declined. When she asked us to sign her breast and buttocks with a sharpie, we happily accepted.

A certain person, let’s call him “Jeff,” and I were out at Treasure Island at about 3 AM on Wednesday morning. We were approached, not by one, but by two groups of ladies of the night. I particularly liked it when one of them said, stealing my best line, that ‘I look really good naked.’ Apparently “Jeff” an I looked like desperate marks.

When you find a bar that allows you to enter for $20 dollars and then get free drinks for the next two an a half hours you go in, even if there isn’t a single woman in there that you’d want to spend the night with. We took our own advice and probably had about 25 vodka and Red Bull’s between us.

I had no idea that people play spin the bottle after high school, but apparently when you’re in your 30′s, an in Vegas, you do still play, an in clubs no less. Why does that damn glass, no matter how many times I spin it, ever end up pointing me toward the hot gal? Where was my luck Vegas?

By Ray Flowers

Win Shares: 2011 Leaders

I know that no one reads anymore. In fact, I’m positive about that fact. I cannot tell you how many times a day the following occurs at the Baseball Guys’ Twitter Page.

I post a tweet. Example. “Albert Pujols is being paid $250 million over the next three years. Is he worth it? www. Pujols-Making…” So my sentence describes what I’m talking about, and then the link takes readers to the full story. Should be pretty simple, right? Someone then replies to me ‘will Pujols’ new home in California hurt his homer output?’ Why is that question a problem?

Because it clearly points out that the person didn’t bother to click on the link which, for three paragraphs, describes the impact that the Angels park could have on Pujols’ power. You think this is me just being me and bitching about something that rarely occurs? Not at all. This happens to me at least 3-5 times every single day. At least. People just don’t read anymore.

So why do I bring that up the fact that people hate to read? Because I’m going to trust that if you’ve gotten this far that you are one of those rare people that actually understands the value of reading something and not just scanning over it for 10 seconds (plus I just had to vent, sorry about that). I wrote about Wins Shares last year in Win Shares: 2010 Leaders, I’m merely going to quote myself in what follows for the description of what Wins Shares is (I know that’s lazy, but I did such a spectacular job last year, why mess with perfection?). Do I need a citation for my own words? Jeez, it’s been a while since college.

WHAT ARE WIN SHARES?

Win Shares attempts to measure how many wins a hitter or pitcher has personally notched for his team in the standings. Win Shares puts all players on one continuum meaning hitters and pitchers are all lumped together.

Win Shares are handed out based on a players impact at helping his team win games. Unlike other new-school stats, Win Shares look quite explicitly at the standings. The team’s number of Win Shares is equal to its win total times three. Eighty team wins gives 240 win shares to be spread amongst people on that team. Therefore, it doesn’t matter if a player is on a team that wins 95 or 75 games – they should still be rewarded in an equitable manner.

Win Shares is complicated to figure out, and has negatives. Bill James, the creator, realized some limitations in Win Shares and later invented “Loss Shares” because Wins Shares are only positive. Win Shares has also been replaced in most people’s minds by a measure like WAR (Wins Above Replacement level), but Win Shares was the first systematic attempt to put all aspects of baseball performance into one number that really caught on (James wrote about it in Win Shares, a massive 728 page book that was published in 2002).

To put the numbers you are about to review in context, here is a brief key for seasonal performance.

All-Star: 20+ Win Shares

MVP Level: 30+

Historic level: 40+

With that brief lead in, here are the 2011 leaders according to Win Shares.

2011 LEADERS – HITTERS

38 – Miguel Cabrera
37 – Ryan Braun, Matt Kemp
36 – Jose Bautista
34 – Jacoby Ellsbury
33- Prince Fielder, Joey Votto,
30 – Lance Berkman, Robinson Cano
29 – Miguel Montero
28 – Ben Zobrist and Andrew McCutchen

2011 LEADERS – PITCHERS

27 – Justin Verlander
24 – Jered Weaver
23 – Clayton Kershaw
22 – Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee
20 – James Shields, Ricky Romero, C.J. Wilson, Ian Kennedy
19 – CC Sabathia
18 – Dan Haren, Doug Fister
17 – Craig Kimbrel, Cole Hamels

By Ray Flowers

Win Shares: 2010 Leaders

Photo by SD Dirk

The holy grail of baseball analysis is the one measure that records everything. We’ve got ERA for pitchers and batting average for batters, but how do you compare a 3.00 ERA to a .300 batting average? How do you compare a power hitter like Adam Dunn to a speedster like Juan Pierre? How does defense and team play entering into the discussion? This line of thought was one of the driving forces of the creation of sabermetrics.

There is always something new to write about in the world of baseball, and much of the innovation we have witnessed in recent years revolves around the aforementioned sabermetrics, or the objective analysis of baseball through empirical means. Basically that’s just a fancy way of stating that sabermetrics tries to cut through B.S. and perception to objectively analyze player performance. One of the leading proponents of this line of thought is the man who coined the term, and that is Bill James. Bill’s initial attempt to rate all players, regardless of skill set or position, on one continuum is called Win Shares, and I’ll touch on that briefly in this article.

WHAT IS WIN SHARES?

Win Shares attempts to measure how many wins a hitter or pitcher has personally notched for his team in the standings.

Win Shares puts all players on one continuum meaning hitters and pitchers are all lumped together.

Win Shares are handed out based on a players impact at helping his team win games. Unlike other new-school stats, Win Shares look quite explicitly at the standings. The team’s number of Win Shares is equal to its win total times three. Eighty team wins gives 240 win shares to be spread amongst people on that team. Therefore, it doesn’t matter if a player is on a team that wins 95 or 75 games – they should still be rewarded in an equitable manner.

Win Shares is complicated to figure out, and has negatives (you can find the actual formula in my Sabermetric Glossary). James realized some limitations in Win Shares and later invented “Loss Shares” because Wins Shares are only positive. Win Shares has also been replaced in most people’s minds by a measure like WAR (Wins Above Replacement level), but Win Shares was the first systematic attempt to put all aspects of baseball performance into one number that really caught on (James wrote about it in Win Shares, a massive 728 page book that was published in 2002).

To put the numbers you are about to review in context, here is a brief key for seasonal performance.

*** All-Star: 20+ Win Shares
MVP Level: 30+
Historic level: 40+

With that brief lead in, here are the 2010 leaders according to Win Shares.

2010 LEADERS – HITTERS
35 Adrian Gonzalez
34 Jose Bautista, Robinson Cano
33 Joey Votto
32 Albert Pujols, Carl Crawford
30 Miguel Cabrera, Josh Hamilton
29 Paul Konerko, Rickie Weeks
28 Aubrey Huff, Evan Longoria
27 Shin-Soo Choo, Joe Mauer
26 Adrian Beltre
25 Ryan Braun, Carlos Gonzalez, Matt Holliday, Troy Tulowitzki, Chase Utley

2010 LEADERS – PITCHERS
Anything over 20 is a Cy Young worthy season.

25 Roy Halladay
23 Felix Hernandez
22 Ubaldo Jimenez
20 Tim Hudson, Adam Wainwright
19 CC Sabathia, Jered Weaver
18 Roy Oswalt, Clay Buchholz
17 Jon Lester, David Price, Justin Verlander, Brett Myers, Billy Wagner, Brian Wilson
16 Trevor Cahill, John Danks, Cliff Lee

By Ray Flowers

Where Do Saves Come From?

On draft day every year, people seem to reach on closers. Not just that, they seem to often think that they have to get Mariano Rivera or Brian Wilson because they are on teams that win a lot of games. I mean, logic would seem to point to the fact that in order to roster a reliever with a prodigious save total he would have to pitch for a team that racked up a bushel of victories. However, does history bear this out as an accurate portrayal of what actually happens on the field?

In this study of relievers dating back to 2003, I will attempt to show that it isn’t a lead pipe cinch that you simply must have a closer from a top tier team to accrue strong save numbers. In fact, the data that follows would seem to suggest that you could do very well if you were smart about targeting the right arms, irrespective of the teams those hurlers pitch for.

To read the eight year study all you have to do is to click on the link to Where Do Saves Come From?

By Ray Flowers

Sirius XM Experts League Draft

Left to Right: Matt Deutsch, Ray Flowers, Kay Adams, Kyle Elfrink, Rob Touzet

If you didn’t get a chance to hear the draft live on Thursday at SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio, or even if you did but wanted to delve a bit deeper into things, this is a piece for you. Today, I’ll break down the 14 person, mixed league, 5×5 draft of the hosts from SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (XM147, Sirius211) by focusing on the squad I assembled (at the end of the piece there is a link to a PDF file that shows how each of the 14 teams chose to put their teams together).

LEAGUE RULES

14 teams, 5×5, 23 starters, six bench spots
Hitters: C, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI, CI, OF, OF, OF, OF, OF, UT
Pitchers: Any combination of nine hurlers
Free Agency: FAAB Budget

MY CLUB

I had the 11th pick in the snake draft (number in parenthesis is round the player was taken).

C: Kurt Suzuki (9), Chris Snyder (28)
1B: Billy Butler (6)
2B: Robinson Cano (1)
3B: Ryan Zimmerman (2)
SS: Jimmy Rollins (4)
MI: Howie Kendrick (10)
CI: Chase Headley (19)
OF: Shane Victorino (5), Ben Zobrist (7), Nick Markakis (8), Carlos Quentin (13), Nate McLouth (18)
UT: Mike Morse (21)

PITCHERS: Tim Lincecum (3), Wandy Rodriguez (11), Matt Thornton (12), James Shields (14), Josh Beckett (15), Joel Hanrahan (16), Scott Baker (17), Evan Meek (20), Ryan Madson (23)

BENCH: Yunel Escobar (22), Erick Bedard (24), Daric Barton (25), Josh Willingham (26), Jason Motte (27), Takashi Saito (29)

TEAM REVIEW

* I’ve never done a draft this year in which I took Cano, Zimmerman or Lincecum – and I’ve done like 25 totals drafts if you include all the mocks I’ve been a part of. So why did I take all three here? Because they were the best players on the board. I grabbed the best 2B in the game, a position further cemented by the injury to Utley, and it’s not like I’m sold on Rickie Weeks or Ian Kinsler staying healthy. I nearly passed on Zimmerman to take Fielder or Kemp, and in retrospect maybe I should have, but Zimmerman should be a strong option at third as you all know. As for Lincecum, what can I say, I went against my “never draft a pitcher early” strategy. Why? Two points.

1- It was a great value pick. Lincecum has an ADP of about 23 and I took him at pick #39. Had to jump at that value.

2- In retrospect it was a great value play, but I still shouldn’t have done it. Look at Kay Adams‘ team. She grabbed Jon Lester in the 5th and Dan Haren in the 6th showing there simply is no reason to reach on a hurler early.

* For some reason, the league went bonkers on catchers. By the end of the fifth round there were seven taken amongst the first 98 selections. According to ADP numbers the seventh catcher shouldn’t have been taken until around the 120th pick. Regardless of ADP, I think some of the participants panicked a but since we start two catchers in this league. Why did I take suck ass Chris Snyder as my backup catcher? I considered Ryan Hanigan, but I needed the power of Snyder. Hopefully he’ll pop 20 homers like John Buck did last year.

* Speaking of power, my team could be a bit short there. If Carlos Quentin stays healthy and hits 30 homers I’ll feel much better about the club. I also grabbed McLouth and Morse later in the draft, and I think the duo could easily hit 40 homers.

* I figured I could afford Quentin and Snyder and their potential batting average drag on my club by taking guys like Cano, Billy Butler and Howie Kendrick earlier on.

* I love Kendrick, and have no issue with taking him in the 10th round. However, it may not have been the best move because I already had Ben Zobrist who could move to second or MI from the outfield if I needed depth there (I ended up taking three players who qualified at 2B – Cano, Kendrick, Zobrist). Still, I think Kendrick could hit .300 with 15 homers and 15 steals, and that’s money at the MI spot.

* Though I took The Freak in the third round, at least I showed some patience after that and waited to take my next pitcher until round 11. Then I went nuts. From 11-17, a span of seven picks, I went all pitchers except for Quentin in the 13th. I’m either going to be right, or dead wrong about my pitchers as I took “my guys” in the middle rounds.

James Shields, Josh Beckett, Scott Baker and Wandy Rodriguez
I went bonkers late and took Erik Bedard. Feel free to cast aspersions at me.

* In the pen, there may have never been assembled a better group of arms: Thornton, Hanrahan, Meek, Madson, Motte and Saito. Will that group give me a ton of saves? Maybe (I tried to cover myself a bit by taking both Pirates’ arms). But even if they don’t rack up the saves they are going to give me dynamite ratios and a wonderful K/9 mark if they stay healthy.

* In short, my power is a bit light, and I won’t lead the stolen base category either, but I like the overall strength of the offense. On the hill, saves are a wild card, but I’m fully confident that I will finish near the top of the ratio categories if my guys stay healthy and perform as expected.

Tired of hearing me ramble on about my team?

Here’s the link to the PDF file for the SiriusXM-ExpertsLeague.

Living the Fantasy League

In what follows I will discuss the 12 teams that were entered into the Sirius XM Living the Fantasy 2011 draft. I will highlight each teams best selection, and their worst, and then give a brief statement on something that stood out about the squad. At the end of my the comments there will be a link to a PDF file that will have the entire draft broken down by team.

CZARS
Best Pick: C.J. Wilson (217th overall)
Worst Pick: Brian Roberts (120th overall)
Comment: Punted catchers taking Ryan Hanigan and Alex Avila with last two picks.

KYLE ELFRINK
Best Pick: Tim Stauffer (287th)
Worst Pick: Michael Cuddyer (122nd)
Comment: He must have spent a lot of time studying at BBGuys – McCutchen, Rios, Chris Young, Hill, Stephen Drew, Headley, Danks, Stauffer.

LIVING SOUTHERN COMFORT
Best Pick: Jonathan Niese (286th)
Worst Pick: Jorge Posada (123rd)
Comment: Took a lot of chances late on Texas players – Ogando, Holland and Smoak (old Rangers’ farmhand and part-time 1B last year).

ROCKSTARS
Best Pick: Mike Morse (285th)
Worst Pick: Clay Buchholz (124th)
Comment: Took two injured closers (Brian Wilson, Andrew Bailey), but got three nice power arms late (Venters, Madson, Gregerson).

BEANS & CONRBREAD
Best Pick: Erik Bedard (308th)
Worst Pick: Erik Bedard (308th)
Comment: Sorry, couldn’t resist.

PRODUCER DREW
Best Pick: Placido Polanco (283rd)
Worst Pick: Carlos Santana (67th)
Comment: Took two pitchers in first three picks (Halladay, King Felix) but then, oddly, took a risk at first with Morneau in 5th round.

RAY FLOWERS
Best Pick: Scott Baker (258th)
Worst Pick: Adam LaRoche (162nd)
Comment: Went reliever crazy late with four of last five picks netting Meek, Capps, Uehara and Romo.

B. DOUG IS A MAN
Best Pick: Jordan Zimmerman (209th)
Worst Pick: Miguel Montero (104th)
Comment: Can’t figure out why anyone would take three catchers in first nine rounds, and don’t blame the autopick.

BIG STICKS
Best Pick: Madison Bumgarner (208th)
Worst Pick: Mariano Rivera (88th)
Comment: Marmol and Rivera in the first eight rounds caused issues in the outfield.

LUMBERJACKS
Best Pick: Carl Pavano (322nd)
Worst Pick:Michael Young (63rd)
Comment: Took chances on a bunch of guys looking for bounce backs – Lind, Figgins, Ordonez and Berkman.

KAY ADAMS
Best Pick: Cameron Maybin (323nd)
Worst Pick: Kendrys Morales (86th)
Comment: Took a chance late on talented but injury prone guys – Hardy, Chipper and Peavy.

VANCE McCULLOUGH
Best Pick: Aaron Harang (325th)
Worst Pick: Corey Hart (85th)
Comment: Went with Wright, Arod in first two rounds waiting until 10th round to take a first baseman (Aubrey Huff).

For those of you interested in the results of the draft, click on the link to LivingtheFantasyLg-Rosters for every pick made in the 12-team draft.

SWIP III: Relief Pitchers

Photo by Jon Konrath

By now you know the drill with SWIP, right? I mean you have been coming to the site everyday to read my work haven’t you? Well, in case you haven’t been studious and are wondering what SWIP actually is, you can cick on the like to SWIP- Measuring a Pitcher’s Dominance.

Here is the simple equation that we will use to calculate SWIP.

SWIP = (K – BB) / IP

The 2010 ML average for SWIP was 0.43.

PART II of SWIP discussed starting pitchers.

Today I’ll break down the men who toss pitches out of the bullpen.

SWIP-2010-BBGuys-40-90

.90 and Up: An excellent season. Hall of Fame level.
.70 to .89:  An all-star performance. Worthy of Cy Young consideration.
.50 to .69:  Borderline all-star. A guy you’d like to have on your staff.
.35 to .50:  Nothing more than the 3rd or 4th starter with his club.
.20 to .34:  His major league days could be numbered.
Below .20: Minor leaguer in training.

1.30 – Rafael Betancourt
I’ve already expounded on the greatness that is Betancourt in in his 2011 Player Profile.

1.18 – Billy Wagner
If only he hadn’t retired.

1.14 – Koji Uehara
His competition for saves in Baltimore, Kevin Gregg, was way down the list at 0.47, just slightly above league average. The key for Koji is can he stay healthy?

1.11 – Carlos Marmol
When you strike out an all-time record 15.99 per nine innings (see: The Strikeout – Relievers), even if you walk nearly everyone else you’re still going to be a SWIP dominator.

1.06 – Joel Hanrahan, Joaquin Benoit
Hanrahan was named the closer for the Pirates over Evan Meek. It was the right call. Benoit was amazing last year leading all pitchers who threw 60-innings with a 0.68 WHIP.

1.01 – Matt Thornton
He should have been the White Sox closer last year. The last three years, amongst pitchers who have thrown at least 200 innings, Thornton 1st in base runners per nine, 5th  in ERA, 2nd in H/9 and 3rd in K/9 in  baseball

0.96 – Takashi Saito, Ryan Madson
Both of these setup men had a better SWIP than the men who take the ball in the 9th inning after them – Jonathan Axford (0.84) Brad Lidge (0.61).

0.90 – Brian Wilson, Sergei Romo
If Wilson does indeed miss some time with his strained oblique the Giants may not miss him too much if Romo’s slider is breaking.

0.82 – Matt Belisle, Bobby Jenks
Last year Belisle came out of nowhere for a guy who owns a 0.49 SWIP mark for his career. As for Jenks, despite “struggling” last year according to many people he still posted a better SWIP than Jonathan Papelbon (0.72) and Daniel Bard (0.62).

0.78 – Tyler Clippard
He’s struggled in camp this year, though so has Drew Storen. Perhaps Clippard will get some looks in the 9th this year for the Nats?

0.72 – Jonathan Broxton
Admittedly he struggled big time last year, but he still posted a better mark than Rafael Soriano (0.69) and the same mark as Huston Street and Papelbon.

0.57 – Mariano Rivera
The greatest closer in AL history is still money, but his declining K-rate will start to eat into his effectiveness.

0.52 – Chris Perez
You shouldn’t have a barley better than league average SWIP when your K/9 mark is 8.71.

0.49 – Jose Valverde
His 9.00 K/9 mark was a career worst and the fourth straight season of decline in that category.

0.37 – Brandon League
He’ll close for the Mariners with David Aardsma on the shelf. His SWIP mark is poor, but he offsets that with a dynamite ground ball rate (62.8 percent).

0.32 – Francisco Cordero
His 7.31 K/9 was more than a batter and a half below his career 9.09 mark.

0.29 – Brandon Lyon
Doesn’t get strikeouts, and really is a league average pitcher in many respects.

0.26 – Fernando Rodney
Angels know they have a lit fuse here (his BB/9 mark is 4.64 for his career). The question is – when will it burn out?

Photo by Jon Konrath

SWIP Part II: Starting Pitchers

In the PART I of this series of articles on SWIP, I spent time explaining just what this metric is and how it works. Rather than restating everything that was listed in the previous discussion, I would just suggest that you take a moment to review the piece so that we can all move forward on the same page. A few notes before I break down the starters.

Here is the simple equation that we will use to calculate SWIP.

SWIP = (K – BB) / IP

The 2010 ML average for SWIP was 0.43.

With that, let’s get to what you really want to see, and that is how the starting pitchers performed in 2010.

SWIP-2010-BBGuys-SP

As you can see from the leader board, there is some difference between how pitchers finished in WHIP and ERA.

Major league WHIP leader Cliff (1.00) posted a terrific SWIP mark of 0.79, good for 2nd in SWIP. The leader in SWIP last season wasn’t AL CY Young winner Felix Hernandez (0.65) or NL Cy Young winner Roy Halladay (0.75). The SWIP leader turned out to be Jered Weaver (0.80), hardly a shock considering that he led baseball with 233 strikeouts (you can see the whole list by clicking on the above link).

Here are some of the highlights, and lowlights, of how those who qualified for the ERA title last season fared according to SWIP. Remember…

.90 and Up: An excellent season. Hall of Fame level.
.70 to .89:  An all-star performance. Worthy of Cy Young consideration.
.50 to .69:  Borderline all-star. A guy you’d like to have on your staff.
.35 to .50:  Nothing more than the 3rd or 4th starter with his club.
.20 to .34:  His major league days could be numbered.
Below .20: Minor leaguer in training.

0.75 – Mat Latos, Josh Johnson, Francisco Liriano
A trio of big time arms who rack up the strikeouts while not walking many.

0.73 – Tim Lincecum
Each of his three full seasons he has had at least 231 Ks and the result has been SWIP mark of 0.80.

0.72 – Cole Hamels
Hamels returned to the elite after a slight down turn in 2009 (0.65).

0.69 – Dan Haren
How good is this ace? Over the past four seasons his SWIP is 0.72.

0.68 – Adam Wainwright, Yovani Gallardo
One injured ace is down. If the other can curtail the walks (3.65 per nine), pity batters.

0.67 – James Shields
I keep telling everyone, despite his 5+ ERA, Shields pitched pretty well last season.

0.64 – Clayton Kershaw
Just like Gallardo, the key will be cutting down the walks (3.57 per nine). If he does, he will join the elite.

0.62 – Scott Baker
A pitcher who has excellent skills, even if the results aren’t always where you’d expect them to be (and he’s nice enough to pose for pictures with pretty brunettes too).

0.55 – Ubaldo Jimenez
All those strikeouts (214) mitigated by his 94 free passes (second worst in the NL).

0.52 – David Price
Solid for sure, but still has a ways to go to truly be someone you can consider a Cy Young contender every year.

0.50 – Jonathon Niese
Admit it, you’re shocked that he was just 0.02 behind Price aren’t you. Now you’re starting to see why I like Niese as a strong end game grab in mixed leagues.

0.42 – Jaime Garcia
Better keep up that ground ball rate because even with all his success last year his SWIP mark was below league average.

0.38 – Gio Gonzalez
I don’t doubt that Gio will have some success, but he will be hard pressed to repeat his breakout 2011 effort.

0.31 – Clay Buchholz
His major league days aren’t numbered, not with his strong ground ball rate, but Clay’s SWIP mark says that those ground balls better find his fielders gloves or things could get ugly.

0.28 – Tim Hudson, Trevor Cahill
Remember back in PART I when I said certain pitchers aren’t going to score well in SWIP even though they are fine starting pitchers?

And drum roll please —

The worst man in baseball, who tossed at least 160 innings last season was Brad Bergesen of the Orioles. When you throw 170 innings and only strike out 81 batters you aren’t helping yourself out too much. Given that he walked 51 batters, Bergesen finished the year with a sickly 0.18 SWIP, one hundredth better than the worst qualifier in the NL – Kyle Kendrick (0.19).

Curious as to who those pitchers did who didn’t toss at least 162 innings last season? Here is another leader board for pitchers who threw at least 90-innings last season.

SWIP-2010-BBGuys-90-160

0.77 – Brandon Morrow
Though he walked a ton, he also had the best K/9 rate per nine innings amongst any pitcher who threw 100-innings last season.

0.72 – Ricky Nolasco
I don’t know how many of you are willing to take the risk, but if Nolasco tosses 180-innings he could  be a top-25 starter in the fantasy game.

0.60 – Daniel Hudson
He had a great run to end the year with the D’backs. What will he do for an encore?

0.58 – Travis Wood
This rookie was pretty darn impressive last year when called upon in the second half.

0.56 – Kevin Slowey, Josh Beckett, Jhoulys Chacin
Two veterans that most are down on, and one rookie who everyone seemingly likes. Which guy would you pay the most for on draft day?

0.55 – Jake Peavy
From 2004-09 his SWIP mark was 0.74.

0.55 – Homer Bailey
Will Bailey finally makes 30 starts and break through for the Reds?

0.54 – Madison Bumgarner
It’s certainly a small sample size but over his last nine appearances, including the playoffs, his SWIP mark was 0.78.

0.53 – Bud Norris
It’s all about the heat with this guy who needs to learn how to control the strike zone to avoid being sent to the bullpen.

0.47 – Brett Anderson
A great pitcher when healthy, he’ll likely never score that highly in SWIP because he doesn’t have a big strike out arm.

0.38 – Daisuke Matsuzaka
Was it really just two years ago that some thought this guy would be a perennial all-star?

SWIP- Measuring a Pitcher’s Dominance

Grover Cleveland Alexander – Photo From Library of Congress

Is there a simple way to build off of the idea of WHIP to produce a another number that reflects a pitcher’s level of performance?

WHIP: A REVIEW

My contention is that WHIP, while a nice measure of a pitcher’s general level of success, could be augmented by a similar to figure metric which I believe might be more reflective of a pitchers ability to control the strike zone and therefore limit batters ability to get on base. Perhaps I should start by defining WHIP before I move on to the “new” option – and sorry if this seems like a review of how to add two plus two.

WHIP has become all the rage in the past decade or so – especially in fantasy baseball. You measure WHIP by adding walks and hits together and then dividing by innings pitched.

WHIP = (Walks + Hits) / Innings Pitched

WHIP is one of the many measures that can be used to address the success, or lack thereof, for a pitcher. I believe that the vagaries of hits allowed compromises the measure somewhat. Think about the type of factors that can effect whether or not a batted ball falls for a hit: a ball lost in the sun a wind gust, a misstep by a fielder or a coach positioning players in the wrong spot can often offer a “false” indicator of a pitcher’s performance by charging a hit to his ledger. Should a pitcher be “punished” for situations like this that are completely out of his control?

If you think about it, the pitcher is directly in control of few things during the game. Two of those “events” that a pitcher is directly able to influence the outcome of deal with whether or not he throws strikes or balls (I’m not going to worry about the vagaries of umpires strike zones or batters willingness to swing at pitches that are out of the strike zone). About the only other events that the pitcher relies solely upon himself and not his fielders, coaches or terrain is the homer and the hit by pitch. Since WHIP does not count HBP, I won’t consider it here either. To address the issue of the importance of keeping batters off base while limiting free passes I invented the idea of SWIP.

In PART I of this three-part series I will define what SWIP. In PART II, I will break down the SWIP leaders amongst starting pitchers from 2010. PART III I will deal with the men who pitch out of the bullpen.

PART I – WHAT IS SWIP?

Following the simple methodology of WHIP, I invented a new measure of a pitchers dominance called SWIP (it must be the mad scientist in me).

S- Strikeouts (abbreviated as K)
W- Walks (abbreviated as BB)
IP- Innings Pitched

Numerically speaking, the formula for SWIP works along the same lines as WHIP. Therefore SWIP is determined by the following equation:

Strikeouts minus Walks divided by Innings Pitched equals SWIP.

SWIP = (K – BB) / IP

Another way to look at this is to say that for each positive result, the recording of an out in the form of a strikeout, the pitcher receives a (+1). For each negative encounter, in the form of a walk, he receives a (-1). Simple enough right? Here is an example of how you can figure out SWIP so you can see what I’m talking about (and yes, it really is as simple as it sounds).

EXAMPLE

Dan Haren had 216 Ks and 54 BBs in 235 IP in 2010.

(216-54) / 235
162 / 235
0.69 SWIP

Haren’s SWIP for the 2010 season was therefore 0.69.

Though SWIP is recorded in the same manner as WHIP, the way to read the results is slightly different. Whereas the lower the WHIP the better one has performed, SWIP works in the opposite direction: the higher the SWIP the better.

Here is a rough estimate of what the results mean to help you to put things in perspective, a key if you will.

.90 and Up: Excellent season. Hall of Fame level.
.70 to .89:  An all-star performance. Worthy of Cy Young consideration.
.50 to .69:  Borderline all-star to decent starting pitcher. A guy you’d like to have on your staff.
.35 to .50:  A guy who should be nothing more than the 3rd or 4th starter with his club.
.20 to .34:  His major league days are likely numbered.
Below .20: Minor leaguer in training.

Let’s take a look at how all major league hurlers performed in 2010.

34,302 Strikeouts
15,778 Walks
43,304.2 IP

So in order to find out the major league average for SWIP during the 2010 season we simply plug the numbers into our simple equation.

SWIP = (K – BB) / IP
(34302-15778) / 43304.2
18524 / 43304.2
0.4277
SWIP = 0.43

Not surprisingly, last year’s 0.43 mark mirrors the major league SWIP totals of the past few years though it is an 11-year high.

2010: 0.43 SWIP
2009: 0.39 SWIP
2008: 0.38 SWIP
2007: 0.37 SWIP
2006: 0.37 SWIP
2005: 0.36 SWIP
2004: 0.36 SWIP
2003: 0.34 SWIP
2002: 0.35 SWIP
2001: 0.38 SWIP
2000: 0.30 SWIP

Now that I have enumerated what SWIP is and how it is figured, I will spend a brief moment detailing its major flaw.

LIMITS OF SWIP

As almost every metric out there that measures anything, SWIP is limited, in this case because of its simplicity. The major flaw of SWIP is that it favors pitchers with strikeout potential while often shortchanging those pitchers who might actually be “better” real world pitchers. We all know that this type of pitcher, the one who gets by more on guile than pure stuff (a guy like Jeremy Guthrie), but SWIP is concerned with “stuff” so it favors pitchers with power arms.

Starting pitchers have multiple innings to set up batters and vary pitch sequences, not to mention the time needed to work themselves out of trouble. This freedom allows starters to pitch with a variety of styles, all of which can be successful. At one end of the pitching spectrum there are “stuff” guys like Tim Lincecum who dominate hitters. However, you have hurlers like knuckleballer R.A. Dickey and soft-tossers like Dallas Braden who can be very successful as well. Obviously these pitchers do not record strikeouts at the same rate as their power pitching compatriots – their stuff simply isn’t overpowering enough.

All pitching styles can be successful whether they rely upon the strikeout or the ground ball if the pitcher has enough time to work out of jams and if he knows how to pitch. However, the more often that a pitcher can limit a batters ability to put the ball in the field of play, the more often he has “control” over the at-bat. So everything being equal, a pitcher is better off by not allowing the batter to hit the ball – it’s as simple as that. Again, that doesn’t mean there is only is only one path a pitcher must follow for success. As a result, some of the pitchers that you will read about with a poor SWIP marks will have been successful in 2010 even if their path to success was slightly unconventional.

As far as relief pitchers, they operate under a different set of “rules.” Relievers usually don’t have multiple innings to set up batters and they often come into games with runners already on base. They don’t have time to find their grove and work on touch pitches like change-ups and curve balls. Relievers need to come in and throw strikes – immediately. As a result it appears that SWIP might be a more useful tool to pass judgment on pitchers who rely mostly on “hard stuff” (fastballs, sliders and fork balls) than soft tossers. These hard throwing pitchers, as a general rule, tend to congregate more toward the bullpen than in the starting rotation since relievers can come in, throw gas, and not have to worry about pacing themselves to last multiple frames.

Therefore, SWIP can be termed a “dominance stat” in that it helps us to track which pitchers are best at limiting hitters ability to hit that ball. So in the analysis you are about to read don’t take the results of SWIP to mean that I necessarily think that Brett Myers was a better pitcher than Chris Carpenter because he had a better SWIP mark in 2010. Take the analysis for what it is, and remember this simple axiom…

Everything being equal, the pitcher who limits hitters ability to hit the ball, as well as limiting the free passes he allows, is the pitcher more likely to be consistent from year-to-year.

In PART II, you can read about how SWIP is applied to starting pitchers.

By Ray Flowers