Mailbag: July 19, 2012

Each week I’ll be answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account in my never ending attempt to replace myself by explaining to everyone how I evaluate players thereby making myself obsolete.

Who would you rather have for 2nd half of season… Josh Hamilton or Mark Trumbo? Hamilton is slumping badly.
– @mysports1

I got this question and thought it was a joke. It wasn’t. There followed a couple of tweets that pointed out that since June 1st that Trumbo had outproduced Hamilton. OK, well, let’s play that parsing game and see what we come up with.

April-May
Hamilton: .368-21-57-39 with a 1.184 OPS
Trumbo: .348-10-26-22 with a 1.029 OPS

June-Current
Hamilton: .207-7-21-17 with a .725 OPS
Trumbo: .269-16-39-25 with a .954 OPS

Hamilton dominated the first two months. Trumbo has dominated the last month an a half. But…

Overall
Hamilton: .300-28-78-56-6 with a .988 OPS
Trumbo: .309-26-65-47-4 with a .991 OPS

Overall Hamilton is still the better performer, though it is obviously a lot closer than most of us would have thought before looking at the numbers. Still, there is no comparison between the two when it comes to talent. Hamilton is a vastly superior talent. He’s dynamic. I’ll give Trumbo full credit for what he has done, it has surpassed everyone’s expectations, and he does qualify at first base and the outfield in all leagues adding to his versatility (maybe even at third in some leagues). Still, I honestly don’t know a single “expert” who would say they prefer Trumbo in this matchup. Not a one. If you don’t buy the talent argument then how about this one – Hamilton has shown himself to be this hitter for a while now. Trumbo? It’s pretty hard to think he can maintain a 26.3 HR/F ratio – a massive total that would have been the best in baseball last year, in 2010, in 2009… you get the point. It’s also pretty hard to take Trumbo at face value. The guy was a .275 hitter in six minor league seasons. He hit .254 last year. That .309 average isn’t supported by his history or by his 15 percent line drive rate this season.

Trumbo’s been great, and he’s performing better the past six weeks, but the odds are still heavily tilted toward Hamilton being the better performer the rest of the season.

Drop Chris Davis for Wil Myers in a keeper? I can only keep five guys, but in the round drafted, aka 24th for Myers, I’d consider it.
– @JeffSchaffer13

Davis has had a productive season for the Orioles hitting .260 with 14 homers and 41 RBIs in 77 games, putting him pace to be a .260-28-80 type of hitter. Davis has the skills to do that. However that doesn’t make him a keeper in any league that protects only five players. His production also isn’t to the level that he’s keeping your team afloat this year either (at least I hope not). Bottom line is that you could move on from him with an eye to the future if it made sense (i.e. your team could handle the loss right now).

Myers has a luminous future, a fact I pointed out last November in AFL – 2011 Review when I was able to interview Myers at the AFL Rising Stars Game. Myers has killed it all year long, at Double an Triple-A, hitting .319 with 28 homers, 76 RBIs an a 1.057 OPS in a mere 90 games. The only thing holding him back from roaming the Royals outfield right now is that they don’t have a spot for him with Lorenzo Cain being healthy (he’s joined by Alex Gordon and Jeff Francoeur). Perhaps the Royals will move Frenchie at the trade deadline to open up a spot for Myers. At least that would be a logical move. Regardless of what happens at the deadline, it would be a shock if Myers wasn’t in the starting lineup on Opening Day 2013. Does that make Myers a keeper in a five keeper league given his 24th round value?

A brief history lesson. Here are some of the names of some recent elite level prospects that were looked at as can’t miss options who missed in their first season.

Brandon Wood
Cameron Maybin
Travis Snider
Justin Smoak
Pedro Alvarez
Domonic Brown
Brandon Belt

I could go on, but I think you get the point. We’ve all been spoiled by the success of Bryce Harper and Mike Trout. The game just isn’t that easy.

I’ve got no idea who you’re other keeper options are, but in a league that protects only five guys I’m not inclined to keep Myers for 2013, even at a 24th round value.

Need ERA/WHIP. Send Paul Konerko for C.J. Wilson? I can slide Michael Morse or Kevin Youkilis in at 1B.
– @chiloubrown

Konerko has had an excellent season with a .322/.402/.511 slash line (the average and OBP would be career bests). Still, his performance has been really rough lately. Over his last 35 games he’s gone deep just three times with 11 RBIs while his slash line has been pathetic at .244/.331/.336. What’s going on? First off I’d posit some normal regression as he was simply performing over his head early in the year. Second, he had that minor wrist procedure that knocked him out of action for a few days, and he’s been pretty awful since then. Is the wrist still bothering him? Third, let’s not forget that he’s 36 years old. I know we have been spoiled with a lot of players being good into their last 30′s, but traditionally 36 year olds slow down. I’m not saying Konerko should be viewed as a drag on any fantasy team moving forward but I’m also not exactly in love with what I’m seeing either.

Wilson had his worst effort of the year Wednesday allowing seven runs in six innings, but even so he still owns a 2.82 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP on the year. Moreover, that’s 54 starts with a 2.90 ERA and 1.19 WHIP since the start of last season. Wilson continues to be one of the most effective hurlers in baseball, and there is no reason to think that he’s likely to see a major regression any time soon.

If your goal is to improve your ratios Wilson is a fine target. Since you’ve got Morse/Youkilis to also fill in at first base, go ahead and send Konerko packing.

Think Santiago Casilla is permanently out as closer or needs a breather? Seems SF will give Casilla every opportunity as they want Sergio Romo left as setup guy.
– @cwhittemore33

All I can say about this situation is that I’ve been extremely frustrated all year. As I have said, consistently since January, Romo is the best reliever the Giants have. Period. Nothing, not a single thing, that he has done this year has changed my opinion at all. In fact, Romo is one of the five best relievers in baseball. Period. Think I’m crazy? Look at the numbers.

0.66 ERA
0.73 WHIP
11.20 K/9
4.25 K/BB
.128 BAA

You hear this crap all the time about how he can’t handle lefties. What are those people talking about?

In 2012 lefties have hit .143 with a .374 OPS against Romo.
For his career lefties have hit .189 against Romo with a .483 OPS.

It’s a completely fallacious argument.

The only valid argument for keeping Romo out of the 9th is that the club doesn’t think he can work a full inning every other day because of an often tender elbow.

Given the totality of the data, Romo should have been closing the moment that Brian Wilson went down with injury. Period. Instead the Giants went with an inferior pitcher in Casilla. For the majority of the first half Casilla was admittedly impressive, he converted 19 of his first 20 save chances, but he’s turned into a disaster of epic proportions of late blowing five of eight save chances as his ERA has gone up two full runs over his last 10 outings. Hopefully the Giants will finally do the right thing and use Romo in the 9th inning, but even if they move on from Casilla, as they should, don’t be surprised is Jeremy Affeldt sees some 9th inning work.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday.

Mailbag: July 12, 2012

Each week I’ll be answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account in my never ending attempt to replace myself by explaining to everyone how I evaluate players thereby making myself obsolete.

Would you trade Rickie Weeks for Francisco Liriano and Stephen Drew? I need pitching depth after many injuries.
– @lqmattson

Weeks has been awful this year hitting .199 with a .658 OPS. Still, he’s immensely talented, has stayed healthy (always an issue for him), and he simply can’t remain this awful for an entire season. He just can’t (don’t forget that he is coming off back-to-back seasons of 20 homers, 75 runs and an exactly similar .269 batting average each campaign). Looks like the turnaround has already started too as he’s hitting .297 with two homers, seven RBIs and 10 runs scored the past two weeks.

Liriano has literally brought his ERA down three full runs over his last seven outings. During those seven trips to the hill he has a 2.74 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 52 Ks in 49.1 innings. Walks are still a concern, his 4.38 BB/9 mark is about a batter above where we’d like to see it, but the point is pretty obvious – he’s locked in right now and in five of those eight outings he has allowed zero or one run. He’s not the Liriano we all remember dominating hitters in 2006, but he clearly looks like he is back to being the 2010 version of himself and not the dreadful hurler we saw in 2011 and for the first two months this season.

Drew is never going to live up to expectations, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be an effective fantasy weapon at shortstop. Remember, from 2007-2010 Drew was a top-10 shortstop even if none of his numbers really jump off the page. Even last year his 162 games would have produced a season of roughly 10 homers, 85 RBI, 80 runs and eight steals – solid numbers to be sure. However, he only appeared in 86 games due to that catastrophic injury to his ankle, and he’s just back out on the field with the big league club having appeared in nine games with poor results (.179 with a .440 OPS). Obviously he will improve, but until he reaches the point where he starts to produce, consider me to be a bit wary (users at Fleaflicker also appear to be in a wait and see approach).

You can do this deal if you need pitching depth as you said, and if the plan includes Drew serving as a backup middle infielder. However, if Drew has to start right now, it’s hard to suggest making this move because even though Weeks has struggled this year, he appears to be heating up and he is clearly the healthier, more ready player to attack the start of the second half. This would be a deal you make solely based on need.

Would you want Cody Ross or Todd Frazier in 14 team h2h dynasty league?
– @MacVincent1

Remember when you had a crush on that gal in high school? You know, that cute gal who thought you were great because you were so funny and smart – yet she always ended up dating some loser who treated her terribly? That gal keeps trying to “date” Cody Ross, I keep telling telling her it’s a bad idea, and she keeps doing it anyway. Newsflash people – Jacoby Ellsbury should be back Friday. Obviously he’s going to play everyday. Carl Crawford should be back in about 2-3 weeks. If healthy, he’s playing everyday. Since David Ortiz is locked in at DH, that means the Red Sox will have the following players vying for time in right field: Ryan Sweeney (rumors suggest the Red Sox are trying to trade him), Daniel Nava, Ryan Kalish, Scott Podsednik and Ross. Yeah, it’s gonna get crowded. I would be remiss if I also didn’t note that Ross is hitting just .264. He’s striking out at a career worst level. He’s batting .238 with a .750 OPS against right handed pitching. Sure he has 20 homer, 75 RBI upside, but really this is a pretty boring skill set that could potentially be in for a playing time squeeze soon.

Frazier has his own problem, chiefly the presence of Scott Rolen. A potential HOF candidate, Rolen was at one point the best all-around third basemen in baseball. That was 2004 though. A broken down shell of his former self, Rolen simply cannot hit any longer as his body has worn down, and through 42 games he is batting .178 with a .302 SLG. Why the Reds continue to play him semi-regularly makes no sense, not with Frazier hitting so well. A third baseman, the Reds have used Frazier a bit in the outfield to get his bat in the lineup, something they should do on a daily basis considering that he’s hitting .278 with nine homers, 29 RBIs an a .901 OPS through 180 at-bats this season.

To me, this is an easy decision. In a keeper league you have to go with Frazier who actually profiles as a very similar hitter to Ross. Two main facts tip the balance to Frazier. First, he plays third base. Second, he’s six years younger.

Do you still think Matt “Harrison is just blah”?
– @theYankeeHajny

I recently answered a question on Twitter about Harrison saying he was “blah.” Of course, it’s hard to give an accurate answer in 140 characters, you get even less space when you are responding to a question, but my point was this (even if my less than eloquent initial response didn’t directly say it). Harrison may have a 3.10 ERA, but that mark really should be a run higher. If it was, his xFIP is 3.95 and his left on base percentage is elevated at 78 percent, we’d be talking about a pitcher with a league average ERA. A solid ground ball arm (51 percent of batted balls are grounders), Harrison is pretty awful in the K column with an average of 5.56 Ks per nine innings, a batter an a half below the league average. So if he’s a league average ERA arm, and below average in K/9, then he’s totally dependent on his record and WHIP leading him to fantasy prominence. He’s 11-4 this year and 25-13 since the start of last season, so he’s looking pretty good in the win column, though we all know that wins-loses don’t always follow based upon a pitchers performance (just ask Cliff Lee who is 1-5 despite a 3.98 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 9.06 K/9 and 4.90 K/BB mark). Harrison does have a solid WHIP at 1.24, but given his skill set it would seem at least a 50/50 bet that the mark will creep into the 1.30′s in the second half which is once again league average.

Harrison is a wonderful real world arm, but he’s just not that exciting from a fantasy perspective if we’re talking about a standard 5×5 setup.

Eric O’Flaherty – regressing or bad luck? I’m in a points league with Solds.
@eoin_daly

Boy expectations can be rough.

O’Flaherty was dynamic last year with a 0.98 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 67 Ks in 73.2 innings. There’s simply no way that anyone keeps up that pace year to year. This season he’s working on a 2.87 ERA. His career mark is 3.11. His WHIP is 1.34. His career mark is 1.29. His K/9 is 7.47. His career mark is 7.00. His K/BB ratio is 2.17. His career mark is 2.16. Moreover, his 64 percent ground ball rate is not only massive, its 11 percentage points better than his career mark. The only real downer for him at this point is a more than doubling of his HR/F mark (from 6.00 in his career to 16 percent this year). When that number normalizes, and it should, we’re likely to see his ratios improve a bit. O’Flaherty has been fine based on his career numbers, and solid regardless of his “regression.” Last season was simply one of those for the ages type of efforts and he was never going to repeat that success this season.

As for Solds, that is the category that I keep pushing for relievers. With all the turnover in the 9th inning, literally two-thirds of all closers from opening day have changed this year, isn’t it time we move on from the antiquated recording of points for relievers that relies so heavily on the save? Why not just use Solds (saves + holds) as a better representation of relievers value? You wouldn’t have to roster a guy like Heath Bell with his 6.75 ERA and 1.82 WHIP for his save total, you could instead roster a guy like O’Flaherty who has pitched much better even if he doesn’t have the saves total to prove it (O’Flaherty has a Solds make of 15, just six behind the 21 mark of Bell).

CONTEST – Have you signed up yet for a chance to take me on in a one day fantasy baseball battle, 1-on-1? Click on the link to the DailyJoust contest to get more details.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday. 

Mailbag: July5, 2012

Each week I’ll be  answer some of the questions I’ve received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

My Pablo Sandoval and Desmond Jennings for Joey Votto? Have Brett Lawrie at 3B so Panda sits on my bench or in utility spot.
– @Youksbeard

All of this hullabaloo over Sandoval being named the starter over David Wright for the All-Star Game has obscured the fact that Sandoval is performing very well. Yes he’s only been on the field for 47 games, but if we push things out to 150, at his current pace, we’d be looking at a guy hitting .313 with 22 homers and 85 RBIs (those numbers are nearly identical to his career marks per 162 games: .308-23-87). Those aren’t stupendous numbers, but they are pretty darn good, aren’t they? If you’re “stuck” with that as your utility option many will wish they could be you.

Jennings was a victim of his own hype. As I stated to everyone that would listen all offseason, Jennings wasn’t going to be a 25 homer hitter this season, and those who thought he was a 20/40 option were always going to be disappointed. He’s stolen 15 bags in 59 games including three in his last four games, so apparently his knee is finally healthy. However he’s hitting .231 as his walk rate has gone down from his rookie season leading to a below league average 0.40 BB/K mark. He’s also be smart to hit a few more balls on the ground to take advantage of his speed. The talent is still here for a huge second half, but there’s not a lot going on right now to suggest he’s going to realize that potential in the second half this season.

Votto — do I need to waste time/space saying he is elite? As long as his body holds up there is little reason to think that he won’t end the year the way he was drafted – as a top-10 overall performer.

You have Lawrie at third so you don’t have to have Pablo around, but as I mentioned, Pablo is still a great utility option. Jennings is a borderline elite talent, even if his production has been far from that level this year. Most people will tell you that getting the best player in the deal often means you win. In this case here is my answer – you’re never going to be wrong adding Votto to your club, but if you’re team is lacking depth holding on to Pablo and Desmond might still end up being the best move.

Anibal Sanchez dropable in 12 team roto? Dude has been killin me for over month.
– @lmfriedrich

On June 9th, less than a month ago, Sanchez had a 3.19 ERA. Now that mark stands exactly one run higher at 4.19. Obviously he’s had a brutal stretch (honestly it’s even worse as his ERA was 2.56 on June 4th). So what should be done with a guy who has a 7.34 ERA and 1.69 ERA over his last six starts? Do you drop him in a 12 team league? The answer comes down to who is available to add. If you’re in a league where people have itchy trigger fingers maybe there are guys like a returning to health Derek Holland or an improving Ubaldo Jimenez on the wire, an in that case you could consider moving on from Sanchez. Personally, I’m stubborn. If my pitching wasn’t a mess, if I could afford to give him some time, I’d bench Anibal and give him a few more starts to see if he can right the ship. What’s done is done, there’s no going back now. Still, we’re talking about a guy who some rather impressive numbers overall this season including a 8.20 K/9 mark, a 2.97 K/BB ratio and a 1.46 GB/FB rate. Chances are pretty good that if he holds on to all three of those numbers for the duration of the year that he’s going to have a good deal of success in the second half.

I don’t need a 2B but should I drop Carlos Quentin for Alexi Amarista? Quentin is tickin me off.
– @BigDaddyLowery

Amarista has been killing it the past two weeks hitting .424 with four homers and 15 RBIs (that includes all four homers, and 13 of those RBIs, in his last seven games). Point blank, he’s one of the hottest hitters in the game. Still, let’s not go overboard here. Amarista is 5’8” and weighs about a buck-fifty. He’s no power hitter. Just look at his minor league totals by year.

2008: 2 HR, 21 RBI
2009: 4 HR, 49 RBI
2010: 5 HR, 68 RBI
2011: 4 HR, 55 RBI

He does have a .312 minor league average, and he owns some speed, but this is a guy at this point that profiles as an NL-only option, and not a mixed league force. If you don’t need a second baseman, he’s not someone you should be picking up to start in your utility spot (over at Fleaflicker people seem to agree).

Quentin was insanely hot when he returned from his knee issue hitting five homers with nine RBIs in his first six games. Everyone thought he was Babe Ruth. Over his last 14 games he has one homer and three RBIs. Now everyone thinks he is Willie Bloomquist. He is neither player of course, and this brings up the shortsightedness that so many people have in the fantasy game (Bloomquist by the way is hitting .333 over his last 78 at-bats). Quentin is hitting .289 this season which is .035 points better than his career mark. Quentin has a .430 OBP which is .080 points better than his career rate. Quentin has a .577 SLG which is .083 points better than his career rate. Taken in total, Quentin is working on a 29 game pace that would equate to 35 homers, 75 RBIs and a 1.007 OPS over the course of a full season. Are you really going to complain about that? Of course you wouldn’t.

Baseball is a long season. If you don’t have the patience to wait out players slumps you’ll likely miss the good that they have to offer. So next time you think about dropping a guy who has had a rough three weeks for someone who’s name you didn’t even know two weeks ago because that unknown player has been hot take a deep breath, logically analyze the situation, and make sure you aren’t making a snap decision that will cost you later.

Yasmani Grandal or  J.P. Arencebia who I have held into him begrudgingly last two months in a 16 team points league?
– @lilnas2000

Grandal has burst on the scene swatting four homers in just 20 at-bats for the Padres. A borderline elite prospect at the catcher’s position, he’s already flashed the plus power he possesses. However, he’s yet to translate that pop into consistent power production in the minors, and Petco isn’t likely to do him any favors. Also, let’s not forget that the Padres still have Nick Hundley and his 3-year deal trying to find his swing in the minors, so it isn’t likely that he’s going to spend a tremendous amount of time down on the farm if he starts hitting.

As for JPA, what were you expecting? Just like the case with Quentin above, Arencebia has his strengths and his faults. Just like Quentin he has long stretches of ineffectiveness. Just like Quentin he’s a power bat and the results often come in bunches. Sure J.P. hit a mere .189 with eight RBIs in June, but let’s take that holistic approach again. JPA has 239 at-bats right now. If we give him 443, the same total as last season, what do we get?

2011: .219-23-78-47
2012: .222-20-70-54 (pace)

That’s right. He’s on pace to pretty much replicate his production from last season, so is being disappointed in his production really fair?

I’d stick with Arencebia, though if you are worried about the batting average, taking a shot on Grandal is fine as well since the duo profiles as similarly productive fantasy options the rest of the way.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday.

Mailbag: June28, 2012

It’s Thursday, so it’s time to answer the questions you’ve sent me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Mike Stanton for Bryce Harper/Trevor Plouffe/Andre Ethier?
@wekings007

Reality check everyone. As great as Stanton is and will one day be, he’s merely an impressive power hitter right now. The best hitter on the planet in May, he’s been pretty darn blah the other two months of the season. In the end he’s on pace to hit .274 with 35 homers, 100 RBI and 90 runs. Those are impressive totals indeed, but they are not the jump off the page I’m going to win a fantasy championship because of them numbers. Did you listen when I told you to back down from expectations before the season started?

I know that Ethier injured his left oblique Wednesday, and that there is no clear cur answer as to how much time he  is going to miss throwing his value up in the air, but do you know what his current pace is for the Dodgers? How about 291 with 20 homers, 115 RBI and 75 runs. Is that really that far off of Stanton’s pace? Harper has slowed a bit but he’s still hitting .281 with a .841 OPS and a pace that would lead to a 20/20 season over a full slate of games.

Plouffe is the wild card. Over his last 10 games he has hit .243 with one homer, a far cry from the insane pace he set early in the month when he blasted nine homers with 16 RBI in 12 games. The power is legit, he’s gone deep 25 times in 512 career at-bats, but he’s also hit .232 with a mere .299 OBP – not exactly the stuff of legend. Still, he qualifies at shortstop and third in all league, and in most he’s also eligible in the outfield and possibly even second base.

If Ethier was healthy this would be a killer deal. Even with him injured it’s certainly not an awful haul, even though Stanton is the most exciting player in the group. I think the question becomes which two players would you need to drop since you’re adding three players and only sending one away? Add in those two players and the deal likely won’t make sense.

Where is Wil Myers going to play if KC promotes him? How long before promotion?
@The_Real_Ray_D

I get this question all the time, and here is my standard answer.

Alex Gordon will be playing everyday in the outfield.

Jeff Francoeur, unless he is traded (the club is probably hoping they can move Frenchie), will be playing everyday in the outfield.

Lorenzo Cain, slated to start in CF this year before injuries struck (remember when he was killing it in the preseason leading to people drafting him as one of the potential breakout starts of 2012?), is closing in on a return to the big leagues as his rehab work (hip issue) was shifted to Triple-A this week.

Billy Butler is the DH and Eric Hosmer is the first baseman.

Where can Myers fit in there? He can’t is the answer. The Royals will need to trade Francoeur, or Cain will have to stall out in his recovery to give the power hitting Myers a chance to play everyday in the bigs (Myers is killing it hitting .325 with 35 homers and 65 RBI in 75 minor league games this year). As I wrote last November in my AFL – 2011 Review column, the guy is gonna be a star – we’re just going to have to wait a bit longer.

Any chance Logan Morrison will have a decent second half?
@peterjpappas

After hitting 23 homers with 72 RBIs last year there was some hope that LoMo would take his game to the next level this season as a prime time run producing force. He hasn’t. His average is down .020 points to .227 and his OBP has dropped to .305 (career .340). He’s on pace for about 18 homers and 55 RBI. He’s also walking less than he did in either of his two previous seasons. Toss in a sickly .241 BABIP, some .041 points below his career rate, and there really isn’t much to get excited about here at all. I can’t envision a player of his skill set being this bad all year long, but there’s nothing going on here that screams to me that LoMo is going to be a significant player in the fantasy game the ROTW.

Jon Lester and Michael Bourn for Justin Verlander?
@franksyanks23

Lester has a 5-5 record, 4.53 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. After years of upper echelon work those are terribly disappointing numbers. Still, he’s tossed 5-straight “quality starts” as he slowly seems to be rounding into form. Oddly, Lester has lost more than a batter off his K/9 rate while also dropping a batter off his BB/9 rate. The result us a 2.93 K/BB ratio that would actually be a three year best if you can believe it. He’s also produced a 1.76 GB/FB ratio that is better than his 1.44 career rate. The real issue is that his he’s been getting hit hard. Currently his line drive rate is 23.3 percent, an unheard of level for a guy with a 19 percent career mark that has kept that mark under 21 percent each of the past four years. I’d expect his effort to continue to improve.

Bourn has been an elite performer — just like I said he would be. Oddly though, he’s accomplished it in a bit different way that was expected. After hitting seven homers the past three years he has gone deep seven times this season. Clearly this is one of those random things that just happens sometimes (don’t expect him to go deep 15 times this year). However, after 3-straight years of at least 52 steals he has “only” 20 thefts this year. He’s still on pace for a fifth straight effort of 40-steals, but it would be nice to see a few more stolen bases. Still, you can’t complain when Bourn is hitting .309 with 50 runs scored in 74 games.

Verlander is as good as it gets. His ERA is up a tenth from last year to 2.52, his WHIP is up less than a tenth to 0.97, and his K/9 rate is down three tenths to 8.64. Wow, he’s really fallen off. He’s the pinnacle of the elite. Period.

The deal is pretty fair for both sides. Most people don’t want to give up the “best player” in a deal, but the return here is significant – an elite outfielder and a solid hurler who is slowly rounding into form.

I was offered Chase Utley or Billy Butler for Derek Jeter? I have Jose Reyes to play SS and Allen Craig to play 2B.
@NY_G123

Pull the breaks on the hype train. Utley returned to action, and homered in his first game, but there is NO way you can take him for Jeter straight up, even if you do have Reyes to fill in at shortstop. None. Utley missed nearly the first three months of the season with knee issues, this coming on the heels of seasons of 115 and 103 games played. You know the Phillies aren’t going to play him every day the rest of the way either (he’s resting Thursday). I’m all for taking a shot on Utley because I think he will still be an effective hitter when on the field, but you’d be better off pouring soap in your eye and trying to read a smutty novel than doing this deal.

The Butler offer does make sense. Though everyone always likes to put the guy down, or just flat out overlook him for some reason, Butler is a hell of a hitter. Not only is he hitting .297, he’s hit at least .291 each of the past three years, he’s also on pace for a career best in the homer category with 15 through 72 games (his previous best is 21 homers). I don’t think he’ll get to 30 homers, it’s not likely that he’ll be able to keep his 22.1 percent HR/F rate given that it’s double his career rate of 11 percent, but that doesn’t mean a .300-25-100 season can be ruled out for the Royals’ hitter.

In this situation, with Reyes ready to take over at short, I’d take Butler in the deal. Jeter has solid all-around numbers (.305-7-25-40-6) but he’s had only 12 RBI and hit a mere .269 over his last 50 games played after his tremendous start to the year.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday.

Mailbag: June21, 2012

Each week I’ll answer some of the questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Give up R.A. Dickey to get Mike Tout in 12 team roto?
– @Thewolph86

I recently spoke about Dickey in my Around the Horn video. If you don’t want to take the time to watch my ugly mug talk about him, here are the highlights of what I talked about.

Dickey has allowed one run in five starts.

He’s hurled 42.2 innings without allowing an earned run.

He’s also made 5-straight starts with at least eight Ks and no earned runs allowed, and that is the longest such streak in the history of the game.

His 11 wins lead baseball.

His 2.00 ERA is the best in baseball (tied with the Tommy John surgery headed Brandon Beachy).

He’s second in the NL with 103 strikeouts.

You can make a valid argument, I’m serious here, that Dickey has been the best pitcher in fantasy baseball this year. The fact that he has done that throwing a knuckle ball 86 percent of the time simply boggles the mind, I mean like I discovered how to time time travel and had Izabel Goulart fall in love with me on the same day ridiculous.

Trout has been a dominating force in the fantasy game, and as I pointed out in the video link above, he may be the best player in fantasy baseball since he was called up. Currently hitting .338, second in the AL, and leading the circuit with 19 steals, here is the pace that Trout is on if he were to rack up 600 at-bats this season: .338-18-86-123-58. Those are insanely good numbers, so good in fact that the five-some of figures has never been posted in one season by one player in the history of baseball.

Which player will keep up their historic pace? I think it’s safe to say neither.

Which player would I rather have? I’d go with Trout. Every person that has ever seen Trout play has thought to themselves ‘this guy is a superstar.’ Hell, Dickey’s family has never even thought that once.

Cody Ross or Dexter Fowler rest of season?
– @AshburnCapsFan

You have to love the East Coast and how it causes people to lose their minds (I write that while listening to Empire State of Mind by Jay-Z and Alicia Keys by the way). Somehow people have been brainwashed into thinking that Ross is a must add player in 12 team leagues. Even if you’re starting five outfielders, I’m gonna say that Ross is nothing more then a depth play. The last time Ross hit .275 was an abbreviated 2007. The last time he hit 15 homers was 2009. In a career that began in 2003 he has one season with 75 RBI (90 back in 2009). He’s stolen more than six bases one time (nine in 2010). What in that history lesson suggests that Ross is a lock to start everyday in a fantasy lineup? ‘But Ray, he’s socked nine homers with 25 RBIs in just 39 games this year.’ So what. What’s done is done, and he isn’t going to maintain that pace. He’s striking out at a career worst rate (25.0 percent), isn’t going to keep a HR/F ratio of 21 percent after failing to reach even 15 percent the past four seasons, and he’s hitting .271 with zero steals.

Fowler has been in an out of the lineup a bit recently and you can’t blame the Rockies for that given that he’s hitting .216 in June. Still, this is the guy you want here. Fowler may never live up to expectations given that consistency has always eluded him, and he’s hit just .169 with one homer on the road this season continuing a career trend of struggles away from Coors (career .876 OPS at home and .678 on the road), but he’s the better talent and he has the more dynamic skill set. You can find 18 homer, 70 RBI guys on the waiver wire, but good luck find a guy who who could go 15/15 while scoring 75 runs and knocking in 75 (Fowler is on pace for an effort of .264-19-75-85-17).

Assuming Kevin Youkilis gets traded and Anthony Rizzo is up. Points league: Rizzo or Will Middlebrooks?
– @ogden56

I don’t ever recall a career .141 hitter with less than 50-games of big league experience ever drawing this much attention. Look, I know that Rizzo has elite talent and everyone is gaga over his potential, but what on Earth did he do last year besides being the worst hitter in baseball when he was with the Padres? Rizzo produced one of five seasons in the 21st century of a batter hitting under .150 in 150 plate appearances or more (J.R. Towles, Brandon Wood, Michael Saunders and Jason LaRue re the others). ‘But Ray, Rizzo is killing it in the minors this season.’ Newsflash everyone, he killed it last year in the minors too despite his catastrophic failure with the Padres.

2011 (Triple-A): .331-26-101 with a 1.056 OPS in 93 games

Does that mean that he will have immediate success when the Cubs call him up this time around since he’s been even better this year in the minors?

2012 (Triple-A): .360-23-59 with a 1.115 OPS in 64 games

I’ll remind you of these facts.

Chris Davis has hit .337 with a 1.006 OPS in Triple-A over four years with an average of 28 homers and 106 RBIs per 500 at-bats. Did he have immediate success in the big leagues? Of course not.

Alex Gordon was the Minor League Player of the Year in 2006 after hitting .325 with 29 homers, 101 RBI, 111 runs and 22 steals in just 130 games. Did he have immediate success in the big leagues? Of course not.

Paul Konerko was the #2 prospect in baseball in 1998 after hitting .323 with 37 homers, 127 RBI and 97 runs in 130 minor league games in 1997. He hit .214 with seven homers in his first 224 big league at-bats.

The bottom line is that the path to success isn’t always smooth and linear. I’d take Middlebrooks who continues to impress, has had success at the big league level (.303-7-27 with a .863 OPS in 37 games), and for the fact that he plays third base.

Is Dillon Gee worth a pickup 12 team league?
– @ErikJKatz

Yes.

Of course it would depend on your current pitching staff, but Gee is one of those guys floating around on waiver-wire’s in a lot of 12 team mixed leagues (just check out his owned percentage over at Fleaflicker), and he’s a great guy to target if you’re in need of a boost on the hill.

On the surface Gee has a 4.27 ERA and a 5-3 record. Yippee right? But look beneath that and you see a guy who is gaining momentum. Over his last seven starts he’s pitched at least six innings without allowing more than three earned runs every time (that’s 7-straight “quality starts”). Over his last five outings he’s only walked nine batter. Over his last six outings he’s struck out 40 batters. On the year he owns an 8.24 K/9 mark and his BB/9 rate is 2.48 leading to an impressive 3.32 K/BB ratio. He’s also eliciting plenty of grounders from batters with a 53 percent ground ball rate leading to a 1.94 GB/FB ratio. If you have a K/BB ratio over 3.30 and your GB/FB ratio is over 1.90 you are going to have a ton of long term success. A ton.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT.

Mailbag: June14, 2012

Each week on Thursday I’ll answer questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

What order would you have Jordan Zimmerman, Matt Moore and Jeremy Hellickson in a 5×5 points keeper league?
– @butlertj2002

Zimmerman posted a 3.18 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in his return from Tommy John surgery last year, and he’s picked right up where he left off with a 2.91 ERA and 1.09 WHIP through 12 starts this season. Extremely consistent, Jordan hasn’t allowed more than four runs in an outing this season, has permitted one run in half his starts 12 starts, and he’s lasted at least six innings every time he’s taken the hill. Why the success? One of the main reasons is that he just doesn’t beat himself. After walking a mere 1.73 batters per nine last year he’s dropped that number even further down to 1.51 per nine this year. If he can keep up that rate, and somehow hold on to the increase he’s working on in the ground ball rate from last season (his GB-rate is up to 52 percent) not much will likely be able to slow him down.

Moore has disappointed many with his 4.59 ERA and 1.46 WHIP but that’s because, frankly, expectations were too high with the rookie. Things are looking up though. In five of his last six starts he’s allowed three or fewer earned runs as his ERA has come down more than a run as he’s finally appeared to lock himself in on the hill. It’s not all lollipops and candy corn’s, he’s walking an unacceptable 4.33 batters per nine innings and he’s giving up a whopping 1.44 homers per nine innings, but there is still a lot going on here to really like, including the 9.31 K/9 rate that neither Hellickson or Zimmerman will ever be able to match.

Moore’s teammate, Jeremy Hellickson, has way better ratios than the power lefty (2.65 ERA, 1.27 WHIP), but I’m still searching for a  real explanation as to how he has been so consistent since the start of last year. You hear a lot about the Rays solid defense and how Hellickson has changed how he throws his curve ball, but at the end of the day his success falls outside the realm of traditional analysis. Still, over his last 41 starts he has gone 17-12 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.19 WHIP and that’s mighty impressive in the AL East. However, that inexplicable nature that I touched on can been seen in the following categories. Over those 41 starts his K/9 is 5.77. That’s well more than a batter below the league average in that time (7.04). His BB/9 is 3.45 and that’s worse than the league average (3.10). His left on base percentage is 83 percent, well above the league average of 70 percent. His GB/FB ratio is in the 0.80 range well below the league average of about 1.10. His BABIP is in the .230′s, light years from the .290-300 range that the league average usually fits in. The bottom line with Hellickson is that he doesn’t strike out enough batters, walks too many and is below league average in his ability to induce grounders, yet somehow he never gives up the amount of hits he should and he’s able to strand runners at a rate that we’ve rarely seen over the last 25 years. We’re going on two years of that middling work in some rather major categories and still he’s posted impressive numbers, but at some point doesn’t that run of inexplicable performance have to end?

All three hurlers deserve to be kept in most keeper leagues, barring some unforeseen bounty of Verlander’s and Lee’s on your squad. Moore has the biggest strikeout arm of the mix, and therefore the highest upside in the fantasy game. Zimmerman throws more strikes that Hellickson and it’s easier for me to explain why he has success, so he goes number two. Hellickson therefore comes in third, but that’s like finishing third for Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Edition cover – he’s still hotter than the overwhelming majority of pitchers in the big leagues.

Drop Dexter Fowler to get Trevor Plouffe?
– @kangashark

This world is all about what have you done for me lately. Think about it. When the Apple iPhone XXIV comes out you know you’ll drop your old model, even though it’s working totally fine. When that new LED flat screen came out, did you give away your plasma television? When Kate Upton burst on the scene with her ample assets did you drop your previous love for… wait, that one makes sense. Getting back on topic…

Fowler hit .239 in April and people hated him.
Fowler hit .333 in May and people loved him.
Fowler has hit .235 in June and people no longer trust him.

Take the case of Plouffe.
He hit .121 in April and was dropped in AL-only leagues.
He hit .185 in May and was dropped by his mother in AL-only leagues.
He has hit .400 with six homers in 10 games in June and people think he’s the next fantasy superstar.

So how would I play this? Plouffe has two main advantages over Fowler. (1) He qualifies at third base and shortstop in all leagues and in the outfield in most leagues. That versatility is tremendously valuable. (2) He has more power than Fowler. In 465 career at-bats the former first round draft pick has 21 homers. On the flip side, Fowler has a couple of significant advantages over Plouffe. (1) Fowler has way more speed than Plouffe has his steal total of six this season doubles Trevor’s career mark. (2) Fowler will never win a batting title but his worst month this season, .239 in April, is still better than Plouffe’s career mark (.228). (3) Fowler simply has the better all-around fantasy game. It’s been an uneven ride to this point but Fowler still has the look of a guy who could go hit .270 with 20 homers, 70 RBI, 90 runs and 15 steals (his current pace).

I wouldn’t begrudge anyone adding/riding Plouffe while he is this hot, but I wouldn’t drop Fowler in order to make that happen.

Matt Wieters or Carlos Santana the rest of the season?
– @rangersjayfilm

Wieters posted a blistering .937 OPS in April but saw that number tank faster than the rapping career of Vanilla Ice with a .605 mark in May. He’s rebounded in June with a .830 mark but alas his .760 mark overall is .018 points lower than last season. On a positive level, Wieters 0.50 BB/K rate is a match for his level the past two years, and his 1.11 GB/FB ratio is spot on his mark from last season (well, it’s 0.01 off). Wieters also owns a line drive rate that is just 0.7 off last year’s level, his BABIP is down a mere .007 points while his HR/F ratio is 0.2 points up. Given that it’s hardly surprising that his current pace (23 homers, 70 RBI, 70 runs) is nearly identical to what he did last year (22 homers, 78 RBI, 72 runs).

Santana has failed to live up to the lofty expectations that were placed upon his shoulders this year as he was often taken first off the board at the catchers position. After hitting 27 homers last year he has only five in 51 games this year. He’s also on pace to fall well off said pace with 24 runs scored (he crossed the plate 84 times last year). Heck, his batting average is down .012 points to .227 and his SLG is actually down an even .100 points (his .357 mark is just barely ahead of his .351 OBP from last season). His BB/K rate remains strong at 0.76, and his line drive rate is up at 21.5 percent (it was a mere 15.4 percent last year). Oddly, even though he’s hit liners at a substantially increased rate his BABIP has only gone up .011 point to .277.

In a dynasty league, these might be the top-2 options in the game behind the dish. As for the rest of the year, I’m going to toss my support behind Santana because he qualifies at two spots (catcher, first base) and because he has a better approach at the dish, but there really isn’t a wrong answer here (to see how others view these two catchers see Fleaflicker’s catcher rankings).

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday.

Mailbag: June7, 2012

Each week I’ll be here answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Would you move Justin Upton for Andrew McCutchen in a keeper league?
– @sfavree

If you ask people in the fantasy game, they would have universally told you that prior to the start of this season Upton was the higher ceiling player. Not that anyone was down on McCutchen, it was just that Upton was the guy they would have wanted. So far that hasn’t even been close to being the right call.

Upton: .243-5-20-34-8
McC: .333-10-33-31-10

Small sample size? Well, how about we backtrack to the start of last season.

Upton: .278-36-109-139-29 with a .853 OPS
McC: .277-33-122-118-33 with a .855 OPS

The plot thickens.

I’ll say this.

(1) The numbers say that since the start of last season that these two players are the same player.

(2) Age isn’t a factor. Upton was born in August of 1987, McCutchen was born in October of 1986.

(3) There is no wrong answer to the question of which player is the one you want to build your squad around.

Upton is likely to be the more consistent power threat. If there is a player here who has a chance to lead the league in homers or RBIs, it’s Upton.

McCutchen is likely to be the more consistent base stealing option as the years progress, and that adds substantially to his fantasy value.

Honestly, you can flip a coin. Since I’m all about winning right now, even in a keeper league (more on that below), give me McCutchen who is performing at a higher level this season.

I need some help. Eric Hosmer for Mark Trumbo and Alfredo Aceves in 10 team keeper?
– @will_zme

Keeper leagues always fascinate me. Obviously without knowing all the details of a league it’s pretty difficult to give a 100 percent accurate answer to any such question, but in general you have to ask yourself two main questions: (1) Is the goal to win this season? (2) Are you building to win in the future? I’m of the opinion that if you can win this year, go for it. You don’t know if you’ll even be playing fantasy baseball in three years, and you certainly don’t know if you will still be playing in the same league. Plus, with injuries an the inherent uncertainty of the game, why not go for it when you have a legit shot to hoist the trophy? That said, there is a third level that must be addressed – how many players can you keep and for how long? The answer to any keeper question changes depending on whether you hold three, five, 10 or more players.

If you’re trying to win this season you have to take the duo here. Trumbo has been out of his mind thus far hitting .337 with 12 homers and 31 RBIs. The batting average is a fluke. Trumbo doesn’t hit enough line drives (19 percent) and strikes out too much (22.2 percent) to get a hit every three times he comes to the plate, and he simply won’t be able to sustain his current .387 BABIP. I’d be looking at a significant step back there. I also wouldn’t be shocked to see a minor pullback in his homer rate, but he obviously has 30 homer power so an outright drought isn’t likely.

Aceves had a 10.29 ERA in April before rebounding to post a 2.89 mark in May as he converted eight of nine save chances (here’s a look at his performance over at Fleaflicker). On the season he has an impressive 9.73 K/9 mark, though that number is somehow three batters above his career rate. He’s also walking more batters per nine innings – 3.77 – than any point in his career (2.81 per nine). He’s offset some of that by generating more grounders than ever before leading to an impressive 1.81 GB/FB. He will have to deal with the return of Andrew Bailey at some point, but for now he’s a solid bet to continue to rack up saves even if his performance slips a bit.

Hosmer has hits in 9-straight games and finally appears to be putting his season back together. Hosmer still has a walk rate that is better than last season, his strikeout mark is also lower, and his line drive rate and HR/F ratios are the same as his rookie season. I keep focusing on that .222 BABIP and really think he’s been unfortunate (you can blame the defensive shift that teams are employing against him for some of that too).

I don’t think anyone is going to argue with you that Hosmer is the better keeper than Trumbo, but if you’re looking to win this season I think you should go with the Angel slugger and the Red Sox current closer.

Give Andre Ethier, get Eric Hosmer. Fair? Other team needs outfield help.
– @scotsyl

I wrote above about Hosmer and how I’m a fan of him as well as that I’m expecting him to continue to improve his production. At the same time, I don’t know why you would be offering an established high level producer in the outfield who just so happens to be leading the NL in RBIs at the moment with 46 for him? Makes no sense to me. A career .292 hitter who ironically has hit .292 each of the past two seasons, there’s no reason to expect Ethier to slow down from his current .302 batting average. His .363 OBP is also just one point off his career mark, and the nine homers he currently has put him on pace for about 25 homers, right on the pace he averaged from 2008-10. Add in the fact that you say the other team really needs outfield help – and if they do you need to be low balling them to see how desperate they are – and you’re simply giving up way too much to acquire the Royals young first baseman.

When Emilio Bonifacio returns, who ROTW at SS – Bonifacio, Dee Gordon or Jed Lowrie?
– @JohnnyHoey

Bonifacio will likely be out until the start of July following thumb surgery, so assuming this question begins right after the All-Star break…

Emilio has the advantage of qualifying at third base, shortstop and the outfield, and that versatility it a big time boost to his value. He’s also running wild under Ozzie Guillen with 21 attempt (20 successful) in 39 games. That’s obviously a pace for 80 attempts over the course of a full season, a massive number in this day and age. Given his approach at the dish that includes a career best walk rate, it’s hard to think either of the other two fellas will be able to eclipse his fantasy value if he’s truly healthy.

Gordon wants to be what Bonifacio is. Gordon is hitting .230, and that’s the highest his average has been since May 8th thanks to a five game hitting streak. When you bat that low, you better bring something else to the table. Gordon is on pace for about three homers, 35 RBI and 60 runs scored, all awful totals for a mixed league player. He’s also getting on base at just a .274 clip, and that’s embarrassing for a professional baseball player. Since he never gets on base he’s rarely running so he’s not utilizing his one fantasy asset, and without the stolen bases he’s useless (he has only two steals since May 6th).

Lowrie is the best hitter of the trio, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he is the best fantasy option. May was an impressive month for Lowrie as he had six homers, 14 RBI and 15 runs scored, but that level of production isn’t going to be sustainable for the Astros’ shortstop. A career .258 hitter, Lowrie is batting .283 thanks to the best homer rate of his career as well as the highest line drive rate he’s ever had (22.4 percent). There are seeds of growth here with Lowrie, but he’ll need to avoid two things that have always plagued him – injury and inconsistency.

I’d go with Bonifacio who gives you that versatility and the elite base stealing ability.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday. 

Mailbag: May 31, 2012

Each week I’ll be here answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Eric Hosmer and Brandon Morrow too much for Adrian Gonzalez? 14 tm mixed keeper.
– @strofaninKC

Hosmer is hitting .204 with a .617 OPS disappointing everyone who drafted him to be a starter at first base this year. At the same time he has hits in eight of his last nine games and finally seems to have found his bearings. As I’ve said many times, his walk rate is up while his strikeout rate is down from his rookie season (his BB/K has gone from 0.41 to 0.62), while his GB/FB ratio is also similar (1.57 to 1.75). Hosmer’s line drive rate has also crept back up to 17 percent, within shouting distance of his 18.7 percent mark from last season. Given all of that, there really is no way to explain how his .314 BABIP as a rookie has dipped to .208 this year, so there would seem to be a fair amount of room for growth here. Even with all his struggles this year Hosmer is still on pace for 19 homers and 82 RBIs, similar to the 19 and 78 marks he posted last season, albeit in 90 more at-bats.

Morrow has been dynamic this year. Through 11 starts he has a 6-3 record with 3.28 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. He’s also completely dominated batters at times with 62 Ks in 68.2 innings, and seven times in his 11 outings he has allowed zero or one run thanks in no small part to a significant reduction in his walk rate (last four years: 5.68 per nine, 4.06, 3.46 and 2.88 this year). Unfortunately he took a ball off his shin Wednesday night in what looked like a scary scene. Reports suggest that he has a good chance to make his next start, so perhaps he escaped a significant injury, but there is at least some uncertainty at the moment.

Gonzalez, and I’ve said and written this many times, was not worth a first round pick this year. His .338 average last year was .034 points higher than it had ever been and .046 points above his career batting average (that’s akin Adam Dunn hitting .289). As I also pointed out many times, despite the perception, Fenway is a tough park for left-handed power hitters to go deep, and Adrian’s performance backs me up: in 106 career games at Fenway A-Gone has hit a mere 12 homers (he has slapped 31 doubles around the barn). Despite all that Gonzalez has still woefully underperformed hitting less than Yonder Alonso (..279 to .274) with fewer homers than Ike Davis (five to four) and the same amount of RBIs as Justin Smoak (27), and that isn’t likely to continue.

I’d take a shot on the two players. Morrow’s health situation makes me a bit nervous, but if he’s healthy he should be able to push the duo above the value you will get from Gonzalez the rest of the way since Hosmer finally looks to be figuring it out.

Dan Haren and Lucas Duda for Edwin Encarnacion?
– @knkorte

Haren has been up and down this year but over his last two starts he has allowed just one run, struck out 21 batters, issued not a single walk, and won both outings. As a result his season long numbers all of a sudden look elite again: 8.29 K/9 (would be a 3-year high), 1.76 BB/9 (just below his career 1.88 mark), 1.15 GB/FB (career 1.19), 0.88 HR/9 (career 1.01). Face it, Haren is back to being the top-15 option on the hill that he was drafted to be. Amazingly consistent is this righty.

Duda has gone deep three times in his last six games nearly doubling his total of four homers in 43 games. He’s also hitting a mere .257 with 26 RBI and 20 runs scored while sporting a decent .346 OBP. To this point of the season he has been the definition of blah. Still, what he is currently doing would lead to a season of 20 homers and 80+ RBI, so if he can just get a few more balls to fall for hits, maybe get that average up to the .270 range, he wouldn’t be that bad a corner infield option in mixed leagues now would he (he’s only owned in 35 percent of Fleaflicker leagues)?

People get way ahead of themselves sometimes. Encarnacion is on pace for an epic season of .274-54-130-95-19 with a .920 OPS. Realize I used the word “pace.” Here are the facts. (1) EE has never hit 30 homers in a season. (2) EE has never had 80 RBI. (3) EE has never had 80 runs scored. (4) EE has never stolen 10 bases in a season. (5) EE has never had an OPS of .835. That’s a whole lot of “never” for a guy who has played seven previous seasons in the big leagues. It’s also worth mentioning that EE has appeared in less than 100 games in two of the past three seasons because of injures, and his current batting average (.274) and OBP (.336) are basically career average numbers (.265 and .334). There is no chance that he keeps up the current pace, none, the question is how much will he slow down?

I’d take the duo. Haren is a rock of epic proportions – you know exactly what you’ll get from him. Duda is no Encarnacion, though his “pace” this season would equate to what everyone would have expected from Encarnacion this season, but he should be an effective offensive player this season for the Mets. Don’t mistake me, I’m about as big an Encarnacion fan as there is out there, but what he has done to this point of the season just boggles the mind and portends a significant slow down the rest of the way.

Jed Lowrie or Rafael Furcal?
– @glh205

Lowrie is one of my favorite whipping boys. He seems to always have a three week stretch in which he looks like the second coming of Cal Ripken. However, he then follows it up with a three week stretch where he’s Johnnie LeMaster like. In the end, what we end up with is a slightly better than average hitter. Take his career slash line. In 969 at-bats it’s .256/.328/.419. What is the league average since his career started? How about .262/.329/.414. If we pro-rate his career work over 500 at-bats we end up with a season of .256-14-71-68-3. That’s a solid season for a guy who qualifies at third and shortstop, but it’s nothing to get excited about (Alexei Ramirez hit .269-15-70-81-7 last year and no one was falling all over themselves to draft him this year).

Furcal is hitting .333. The last time he hit .300 in a season of 100 games was 2006. Furcal has a .391 OBP. The last time he posted a mark that high in a season of 100 games was his rookie season of 2000. Furcal has a .460 SLG. The last time he posted a mark that high in a season of 100 games was — never. Why do I keep mentioning 100 games? That is the game total that Furcal has failed to reach in three of the previous four seasons do to injury. Is it reasonable to think that the 36 year old shortstop will be able to blow past that total with ease this year, not to mention doing so while performing at the highest levels of his career? There’s no disputing that there is significant talent with Furcal, and if he were to stay healthy an appear in 140+ games his production would be impressive given his hot start, but there is just so much here that sends up a big yellow cautionary flag with the Cardinals’ shortstop. Still, give me Furcal. I know there are a myriad of legitimate concerns with him, but he possesses more fantasy worthy skills than Lowrie at this point.

Paul Goldschmidt or Delmon Young in a re-draft heavy hitter league?
– @JHAWK707

In one of the most inexplicable situations in recent years, Goldschmidt simply annihilates Tim Lincecum. In 13 at-bats he has seven hits which include a double and four home runs (in 2012 he is merely 2-for-4 with two homers). Against the rest of the league he has hit .245 with eight homers in 283 career at-bats, pretty dreadful numbers for an “offensive force” that plays first base. We’re talking under 100 games of big league experience though, so this story clearly hasn’t been written yet. What is extremely heartening is that Paul has hits in 9-straight games as his average has gone up from .219 to .266 while his OP has climbed nearly a .150 points as well (.630 to .775).

Young, when he isn’t getting in trouble with the law, has been a disappointment on the field hitting .245 with a sickly .657 OPS. He still never walks, just seven free passes this year, and he continues to show nothing on the base paths (he has one steal in his last 167 games). There really is nothing to recommend Young at this point other than his pedigree and the fact that he owns a career .286 average and has hit worse than .284 only one time (though it was last year at .245).

I’d take Goldschmidt who has more power potential and for the fact that he has been the hotter hitter of late.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday.

Mailbag: May 24, 2012

Each week I’ll be here answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter page.

What do you think of this trade offer: Dan Haren for Ryan Zimmerman?
– @toastedonry

Haren has lost his last four trips to the hill and he’s given up at least three runs in all four of the outings. He’s also dealing with a bit of a wonky back, an overall he’s 1-5 with a 4.37 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. Is it time to grab a pitchfork and a flaming torch to storm the castle? Not so fast. Haren is matching his K-rate from last season, though it is in the 7.2′s for the second straight year after 3-straight seasons over eight. His walk rate would be an 8-year high but we’re still talking about a 2.26 per nine mark. His BABIP is slightly elevated (.315) while his LOB% is slightly down (71 percent), and his GB/FB ratio of 1.08 is within shouting distance of his 1.19 career mark. He hasn’t pitched anywhere near as poorly as it would appear from his record and ERA. There are some signs of erosion of course, but it’s a gradual thing and not something that should add a run to his ERA and cause him to lose 15 games this season.

Zimmerman continues to be bothered, at least somewhat, by his shoulder. The result is a poor slash line of .248/.341/.350 from a guy who has career mark of .287/.354/.475. That’s right. Zimmerman’s current SLG is below his career OBP. A look at the rest of his line this year reveals a 0.62 BB/K mark, slightly above his 0.55 career rate, and his BABIP of .300 is just a hot week or two away from being right there with his career mark of .318. What has changed this year is a lack of fly balls, and this is a concern. Since the start of last season Zimmerman has hit more than 50 percent of his batted balls into the ground, that the is going to make big homer totals impossible to attain given his 12.5 percent career HR/F mark. In fact, his 1.50 GB/FB ratio since the start of last season is something you want to see on the back of the ball card of a 30 steal guy, not a middle of the order thumper.

Both these struggling options should improve as the season progresses. Third base has been hit by some injuries this year, including the one that has felled Zimmerman, so it would be understandable to add the Nationals third sacker with the hope that he is healthy. Given that I’m not sure he is, I’m going to side with Haren here but under the proviso that there are certainly setups in which it would make more sense to add Zimmerman (i.e. if your roster was deep in pitching and you needed a boost at the hot corner).

Stay the course with Miguel Montero at catcher?
– @Kronis_kek

Last year Montero was a top-5 catcher as he hit .282 with 18 homer, 86 RBI, 65 runs scored, a .351 OBP an a .820 OPS. This season he has been far from that level as he has hit .255 with two homers, 21 RBI and 16 runs scored. However, he’s still on pace for 75 RBI and 57 runs scored, numbers right in line with his production last year. He also is sporting a .350 OBP which is virtually identical to last season, and his 0.44 BB/K mark is just under the 0.48 mark he had last year. The average should come up, Montero has hit .282 the past three years, and it’s unlikely that after 4-straight years with a line drive rate of at least 19 percent that he’ll continue to struggle along at 16 percent the rest of the way. The power? That’s the big issue here. An 11 percent HR/F guy for his career, that number is just 5.7 percent this year. Of course, if Montero hits three homers in the next week that number will be right back where it should be. Bottom line for me is that Montero should still be a solid #1 catcher by the time the season is over if he stays healthy and you remain patient.

Do you think Felipe Paulino is a better value than James McDonald or Carlos Zambrano?
– @andy1mat

Paulino has always had a big arm, one that has produced a total of 349 strikeouts in 373 innings. Unfortunately injuries have long been a part of his game, as well as the fact that teams haven’t been sure if he would be best served as a starter or reliever. The Royals are committed to him as a starter, an in four starts this year has has allowed zero runs three times as he’s blown away hitters with 29 Ks, and just seven walks, in 25.1 innings. Obviously it would be wise not to read too much into four starts, so let’s look a bit further back. In 25 career appearances with the Royals (24 starts) Paulino has a 3.66 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 148 Ks in 150 innings. Could I see him pitching at that level this season? He certainly could given his power arm. There is a question about durability though. Here are his innings pitched totals for his career starting in 2006: 126.1, 131, 0.2, 132.1, 95.2 and 139.1. Clearly he is far from certain to be a guy we can bank on taking the ball in September.

McDonald has made nine starts this season and he has yet to allow more than three runs in a start leading to a 2.51 ERA. He;s also been rather stingy with the walks allowing no more than three in any outing which has helped him to post a 0.99 WHIP. James has also struck out 58 batters in 57.1 innings as he is fulfilling the potential that had the Dodgers so excited about him for years. However, consistency has always eluded him which brings up the question of what expectations should be for the rest of the season? Is McDonald going to be able to hold on to his batter per nine gain in the strikeout column? Is he going to be able to hold on to the batter per nine inning reduction he’s provided in his walk rate (Currently 2.83 per nine)? Is he going to continue to be so stingy with the home run ball which seems unlikely given that his 0.31 HR/9 mark is less than half his career 0.88 mark? Is he going to continue to have a BABIP of .264, below his .299 career mark, which has enabled him to hold batters to a .198 batting average?

Until Wednesday, Zambrano had been off to a remarkable start to the season. Even with the beating he took at the hands of the Rockies (seven runs in five innings) his numbers are still rather impressive highlighted by his 2.85 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. Still, his K/BB continues to languish at 1.76, his BABIP is about .045 points low at .233 and for a guy has had a GB/FB ratio under 1.25 in each of the past three seasons it’s pretty hard to believe he’ll be able to sustain the 1.76 mark he currently owns. Zambrano has a great set of ratios, but they are deceiving. He really hasn’t pitched much different than “normal” and there is always the possibility that he could go postal on something at any point which has to make you nervous.

If I was ranking these guys, and let’s face it that’s what I’ve been asked to do, I’d go McDonald, Paulino and Zambrano.

Would you drop Josh Willingham for Matt Adams? Keeper league, but competing for 1st this year.
– @AdamTuteur

Willingham has tanked of late as he’s hit .212 in May with only one homer in his last 12 games. However, let’s not be too short sighted here. Willingham was terrific in April so in total he’s hitting .283 with eight homers, 27 RBI and 24 runs scored putting him on pace to go .281-30-100-90 which would  be the best season of his career (his previous bests are .277-29-98-75). Willingham has also ramped up his walk rate helping lead to a .400 OBP while his .565 SLG is nearly .100 points clear of his career mark (.479). Overall, a terrific start to his Twins career.

I touched on the outlook of Adams earlier this week in the On Deck Circle where I mentioned that Adams has a big bat but that he lacks experience. I also mentioned that playing time could be an issue since Matt Carpenter was around to potentially take at-bats from Adams. Consider one road block removed as Carpenter was placed on the DL with an oblique issue. The Cards will welcome back Allen Craig shortly, but Adams should be given an ample opportunity to secure a full-time position given the bat he possesses.

It’s a keeper league and that certainly swings the pendulum toward Adams, but at the same time if you’re playing to win this year you have to hold on to Willingham. Not only is he the one locked into a full-time role, he’s also the one who has the experience/success at the big league level. Put it this way – Adams hopes to one day be what Willingham is right now, so if you’re goal is to win now keep Willingham.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday.  

Mailbag: May 17, 2012

Each week I’ll be here answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

My Jason Motte for Bryce Harper. Too much?
– ErikJKatz

We’re all aware of it by now, but the attrition rate of closers this season is better than 50 percent, and that’s just stupefying. What it means is that if you can find a guy who appears to be locked into the 9th inning you better only move him if you are getting a killer deal. Motte has blown two of nine save chances, but he’s locked in for the Cardinals. Motte has pushed his K/9 rate to elite levels at 10.34, and he’s continued to be stingy with the free pass (2.30 per nine) leading to an uber-impressive 4.50 K/BB mark. That’s pretty rare territory an a great indicator that some serious success is going to be heading your way. You could claim small sample size – we’re only taking 15.2 innings for 2012 – so let’s go back to the start of the 2010 season for a broader perspective. In 136 innings Motte has a 2.25 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, 8.93 K/9 mark an a 3.55 K/BB ratio. Those are elite numbers, no?

Harper, the Golden Boy of baseball, has done about what I expected from the youngster. He’s had moments of success and failure intermixed. It’s only been 17 games, and given his age you’d have to say his start has been a success, but at the same time he’s hitting .238 and has a mere .319 OBP. The .460 SLG is solid, but people are expecting more than a homer every 32 at-bats with Bryce Harper (he has two in 63 this season). The fact of the matter is that at this point he really doesn’t profile as more than a fourth or fifth outfielder in mixed leagues.

If it’s a re-draft league give me Mr. Motte.

My David Ortiz for his Jonathan Papelbon in a H2H League? My closers are David Robertson, Henry Rodriguez, Joe Nathan and Dale Thayer.
– @lilpuppy99

The reliever carousel continues…

Robertson thinks he can return in two weeks from his oblique issue, but how often do we see that happen when that part of the body is injured? Plus, if Rafael Soriano takes off and has a hot start working the 9th, will Robertson just be returned to his familiar 8th inning role?

Rodriguez is dealing with three factors. (1) He’s recently had some tightness in his forearm. (2) His performance of late has been spotty. In his last six appearances he’s walked five batters an allowed six runs over 4.2 innings. (3) Brad Lidge appears to be nearing a return to health, and Drew Storen as well (Storen could be more than a month away though).

Nathan looks pretty much as good as ever. He’s starting to hit 95-96 mph on the gun. He’s converted eight of nine save chances. His ERA is 2.87, his WHIP is 1.15, his K/9 10.91 and his K/BB 9.50. He appears to be “back.”

Thayer has locked down the 9th for the Padres going 4-for-4 in saves and pushing his career mark to one walk in 34 innings. However, as soon as Huston Street is ready to return Thayer loses his job with the Padres.

Papelbon is dominating hitters as he always does: 2.40 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 10.80 K/9, 4.50 K/BB, 10-for-10 in saves. Nuff said.

Ortiz (.345-8-27-27) has been spectacular so far. At the same time, there are concerns. (1) He only qualifies at DH/Utility limiting his value a bit. (2) After a blazing start that included a .405 average, six homers and 20 RBI in his first 22 games, Ortiz has slowed greatly hitting .259-2-7 over his last 15 contests. Hot starts often blind people to the facts which follow. (A) Ortiz is not a .345 hitter. In fact, three of the past four years he’s failed to hit even .275.  He won’t keep up his current pace. Do you really think he’s going to have his best line drive rate since 2005 this year? Do you also think that a guy with a career .304 BABIP is doing to post a career best .357 mark this season? (B) Despite the success, Ortiz is actually taking walks at a 10 year low, and while I’d like to believe he’s capable of offsetting that by posting a career low K-rate, I find that unlikely to be the case in his 16th big league season.

So do you trade for Papelbon given the fact that three of your four closers may not hold their current 9th inning spots in a month? Ortiz is a high price to pay given that he will be a strong producer all season, but I’d get the Phillies’ closer.

Should I pick up and stash Ubaldo Jimenez? Does he turn it around?
– @Rangerjayfilm

Since I’m sich a glass is half full type, let’s start with the positive.

Ubaldo still alive.

So ends the positive talk.

Facetiousness aside, there’s not much to hang ones hat on here (people see to agree over at Fleaflicker as well where he is owned in only 64 percent of leagues).

A better than eight per nine strikeout guy in his career Ubaldo is currently sitting at 5.48 per nine. Part of the blame there is the fact that his 96.1 mph fastball from 2009-10 is now resting at 92 mph. You can also blame his one time 86 mph slider that now resides at 82 mph. His change up is also down from 87 mph to 83 by the way. The fact of the matter is that he’s lost four mph the past two years, and that’s alarming to say the least. Equally disturbing is that the downward movement that made Ubaldo such a special pitcher has apparently deserted him along with the speed. A one time 50+ percent ground ball arm, that number has dipped from 54.4, to 52.5, to 48.8 to 47.2 percent the past four years. This year, he’s taken another significant step back with that number dropping down to 41 percent.

Struggling to put hitters away, he’s not only been as wild as ever, he’s actually been way worse. However between 3.51 and 3.74 walks the past three years, he’s added nearly three full batters to that mark this year (6.26).  You cannot have success walking that many batters. Ask Francisco Liriano and Jonathan Sanchez.

Given his stuff Ubaldo can still get batters out and have success as a big league starter, but with his inability to throw quality strikes and to avoid walks, there’s little chance he turns things around to previous levels unless he somehow magically rediscovers his lost heat. Where’s Rumpelstiltskin when you need to make a wish?

Can David Freese keep this up? Offered Freese for Chris Young.
– @FranksYanks23

Recall above when I wrote about perception becoming reality for some people? Take the case of Freese and look at his numbers the first two months.

April: .333-5-20 with a .935 OPS
May: .222-3-8 with a .786 OPS

In April he was George Brett. In May he’s been Melvin Mora. So are you asking me if he can keep up April or May? The truth lies in the middle since he’s neither Brett nor Mora. Overall he’s appeared in 35 of 37 Cardinals games, and given his track record it’s hard to believe he will be able to keep up that pace. I also feel pretty comfortable in stating that he isn’t a 35 home run, 120 RBI bat he’s on pace to be right now. In truth, I’d be a bit surprised if he’s even a 25-95 bat given the health concerns and the lack of elite power. Also don’t overlook the fact that while his .287 batting average is a strong mark that it would actually be, barely, a four year low.

Young should be back by the end of this week or the start of next week. Before injuring his shoulder he was off to a dynamic start as he was hitting .410 with five homers, 13 RBI and two steals through 11 games. An option to go 20/20 every season, Young has long struggled to lift his batter average to the realm of respectability (he’s never hit .260 in a season). Given that he’s coming back from an injured shoulder he’s basically having to start over meaning that you’ll likely be best served to reset your expectations for Young back to where they were eight weeks ago. Forget the hot start and look at him as a fella who could be a batting average drain while being a potentially significant source of counting category numbers in the outfield.

Do you need outfield help? Are you looking for a speed boost? If so, the easy answer is obviously Young. If you’re looking for some corner infield help and batting average security, the answer is square in the other camp of Freese. Without knowing the answer to those two questions I’d go with the more dynamic talents of Young who can give me 20 steals if pushed, but there are certainly plenty of scenarios in which it would make more sense to hold on to Freese.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday.