Mailbag: May 10, 2012

Each week I’ll be here answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

What do you do as a Tim Lincecum owner? I have him on 2 teams… extremely frustrated!
– @phillyflash19

This is a results driven game, I get that, but I keep preaching patience with Lincecum and hope that people heed my advice. Has Lincecum (2-3, 5.89 ERA, 1.58 WHIP) been a huge disappointment? 100 percent the answer is yes. At the same time, he is coming around, and there are a myriad of data points that support that contention. Though he allowed four runs in five innings Thursday night his fastball was routinely hitting 93 mph while his change up was darting all over the place. He struck out Matt Kemp three times. Five of the first six outs he recorded were by the strikeout. He had a solid night. On the season he’s been more up and down than a tugboat on the open seas. Still, over his last four starts he has a 3.13 ERA. That’s improvement. Now he’s still throwing too many pitches and walking far too many batters (5.9 per nine over his last four starts), but hang your hat on this. (1) His current 10.06 K/9 mark is better than his career average (9.87). (2) His 1.75 GB/FB rate would be a career best (career 1.40). (3) His 7.1 percent HR/F ratio is blow his career average (7.4 percent). (4) The first five years of his career his line drive rate was never higher than 20.8 percent. You really think he’s going to post a 26.0 percent mark for the season? Moreover, his BABIP is sitting at .349. The guy owns a career mark of .295 and has never surrendered a mark above .310 for a season. Think that is going to continue as well?

Brighter times are ahead for The Freak.

Ervin Santana or Ross Detwiler ROTW?
– @Sllab33

(ROTW = Rest of the Way)

Santana always allows homers but he’s been beaten around like a pinata at a seven year old’s birthday party this year. After allowing between 23-27 homers each of the past five years he’s already permitted 12 in seven outings. There’s no way that continues. Other than the homers, has he actually pitched that badly? If we turn to xFIP to help normalize that home run rate we find that Santana has a 4.10 ERA which would not only better his career xFIP mark of 4.29, it would also be the third best mark of his eight year career. He’s just not pitching as badly as his 1-6 record and 5.09 ERA would suggest. In fact, he’s working on a stretch of 3-straight “quality starts” in which he has lasted at least seven innings each outing while posting an ERA of 2.82. Heck, for the year his WHIP is 1.30 which is better than the marks of Jeremy Hellickson (1.31), Dan Haren (1.33) and Jon Lester (1.36).

Detwiler has stepped into the void created when Chien Ming Wang (hamstring) was injured. On the cusp of returning from that leg injury, the Nats have a decision to make – do they slot Wang back into the starting rotation as they planned to or send him to the bullpen because Detwiler has been so impressive with his 2.10 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over six starts?

I’d take Santana. Not only does he have the obvious historical advantage over Detwiler, the truth is, even if the fantasy numbers don’t show it right now, that Santana is a more highly skilled pitcher than the younger Nationals arm. Add into the mix the lurking presence of C-M Wang in Washington and that’s enough for me to prefer the Angels hurler.

12 team mixed roto keeper I get Mark Reynolds and Jose Tabata for Emilio Bonifacio. Advise please?
– @rogerchoate

Poor Mr. Reynolds. The guy has major holes in his game, there’s no way that I’m going to try and pull some hocus pocus to make you think otherwise, and when he’s slumping he’s about an ugly a batter as you could possibly have in your fantasy lineup. At the same time, and I keep telling everyone this, the past three years (2009-11) he is top-3 among third basemen in homers, RBI and runs scored. During those three years an “average” Reynolds season has led to 38 homers, 91 RBI and 87 runs scored. It’s a bumpy ride, but he always produces. I know he’s hitting .193 with two homers through 25 games, and that’s awful, but he has started to produce in May for those of you who haven’t noticed as he’s hit .350 with two homers, six RBI, a 1.300 OPS and he’s tossed in a steal in six games.

Tabata is a bit of an enigma. After bursting onto the scene as a rookie in 2010, his production has tanked. Hitting just .230 with one homer and 10 runs scored in 26 games this year, the frustration level is pretty high amongst Tabata owners. But let’s take a step back here. If we extrapolate Tabata’s lifetime production over 219 games into a 150 game season the numbers don’t look all that bad: .278-6-42-85-27. Given his age and his pedigree, I’m willing to write off his poor start this season at to give him the benefit of the doubt.

Bonifacio is a great fantasy weapon because of his versatility, but as I warned everyone all preseason, expecting him to hit .296 again, as he did last year, was a pretty tall order. Currently batting .238,  people need to realize that in over 1,500 big league at-bats that Emilio has hit a mere .266. We all know he has no power at all, just six homers in his career, and he has just two RBI this season to give him 91 in 443 career games. Oh sure he’ll steal plenty of bases, he has 15 this year in 31 games, but you’re paying a massive price for those steals right now given his utter lack of homers, RBI and batting average. If I’m being totally honest, an I always am, I’m not certain Bonifacio is actually capable of being an every day player in the big leagues.

This is an easy answer. Add the duo of Reynolds and Tabata and enjoy the bounty.

Trade Derek Jeter for Starling Castro?
– @jamespmack

I love it when the deals are simple. None of this 4-for-3 junk with draft picks and dollar amounts. Just down and dirty 1-for-1. Let’s compare them straight up.

Jeter: .388-5-15-23-1
Castro: .347-1-19-15-11

While Jeter has a substantial advantage in average, homers and runs scored, would it surprise you to learn that learn that in terms of fantasy value that Castro is the equal of Jeter? How is that possible? It’s all about the massive steal advantage that Castro has. So if they are equal right now in terms of their fantasy output, who do I want moving forward? Both players have huge pluses and significant minuses (right now at Fleaflicker Jeter is being slightly favored over Castro).

Jeter is a .314 career hitter who has failed to bat .300 the past two years. Even if we give him a .314 average this season to match his career rate, that means he will hit in the .290′s the rest of the way. Is that possible after he hit .270 and .297 the last two years? Certainly it is, but it just goes to the point that you should expect the “normal” 38 year old Jeter the rest of the way and not the out of control one we’ve seen so far. That includes a major step back in the homer category as I’m pretty sure he’s not going to hit 30 homers for the first time as he gets within shouting distance of his 40th b-day (Jeter hasn’t hit 20 homers since 2004). Jeter has also hit 20 steals only once in his last five years, and his total of one this season in 30 games might signal that even 15 could be pushing it this year.

Castro looks like a Jeter clone in many respects. All the 22 year old Castro does is hit, and over his 1,261 big league at bats we’re looking at a .308 hitter. He’s yet to show a power stroke with only 14 career homers, but this guy should develop into a 15-20 homer bat. He’s not likely to hit .347, but given his age and talent level there would appear to be little threat that he will be able to at least match Jeter the ROTW in batting average. The lack of power dings Castro’s run producing ability, but both men serve more as table setters than dynamic middle of the order thumpers anyway. The real key for Castro is will he continue to run at this rate? A speedster who stole on 10 bases as a rookie, Castro upped that mark to 22 last year. The Cubs have stated that they want to test defenses this year on the base paths, and that has led to Castro’s 11 thefts in 31 games putting him on pace to push 50 this season. Three points. (1) Fifty is a big number. Only one man reached it last season (Michael Bourn). (2) Is it reasonable to expect a guy who stole 32 bases in his first 283 games to push that mark to 50 in 162 contests? (3) Castro has 11 thefts and four caught stealing this year continuing his poor stolen base percentage rate. In his career Castro has stolen 43 bases in 64 attempts, a mere 67 percent success rate. Studies have shown that to be the break even point, and by that I mean that if a runner is under 67 percent with his steal success rate that he is actually hindering, versus helping, his teams ability to score runs. In essence, Castro is merely spinning his wheels on the base paths.

I’m often charged with being an ageist since I usually avoid youngsters for more established players. In this case I’m flipping that position on it’s ear and suggesting that you make this deal to add the youngster from Chicago.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday. 

Mailbag: May 3, 2012

Each week I’ll be here answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Should I deal Shane Victorino for Eric Hosmer ?
– @cooperkyle22

I always wonder why Victorino gets such little love in the fantasy game? I know he has no outstanding skill, so that must be the reason. He’s never hit 20 homers. He’s never knocked in 70 runs. He’s never stolen 40 bases. He’s never hit .295 in a season. Come to think of it, why do I like him? Oh wait, I know why, it’s because he is consistently productive across the board. From 2008-2011 an “average” Victorino season has led to a fantasy line of .281-15-63-96-29. Again, none of those numbers jump off the page, but how about we look at it differently. How many players in baseball met all those marks last season? The answer is three – Ryan Braun, Jacoby Ellsbury and Matt Kemp. Victorino fell short at .279-17-61-95-19, still a strong effort that only six other men could match (add in Dustin Pedroia, Justin Upton and Melky Cabrera).

Hosmer was talked up to the point this offseason that if he didn’t go .300-30-100 he was going to be viewed as a disappointment. When you look up after 23 games and see that he’s hitting .183 with a .638 OPS people are having to be dissuaded not to end it all. Let’s pull back though for a second an add some perspective. In 151 career games Hosmer has hit .276 with 24 homers, 92 RBI, 79 runs and 12 steals. How impressive a season would that be for pretty much any first baseman, let alone one that has appeared in just 151 games in his career? In fact, because of the added element of speed that he brings, would it surprise you to learn that not a single first baseman went .276-24-92-79-12 last season? Despite the struggles this year Hosmer has upped his walk rate by about 35 percent while cutting down his strikeout rate. He’s also upped his HR/F ratio to 19.2 percent (13.5 percent last year). It’s also a pretty safe bet that he won’t finish the year with a .162 BABIP. He’ll recover, he’s simply too talented not to.

I’m a big fan of Hosmer who was able to adjust from his struggles last year and rebound to perform, but I’m still going to hold on to Shane Victorino as much for his all-around production as for his history of high level play.

I hated drafting Mark Reynolds and yet I did it. Should I consider dropping him for Will Middlebrooks?
– @SFarup

You know what you get when you roster Reynolds. You get a guy who will be fortunate to hit .240, but one that should produce plenty in the counting numbers. In a highly overlooked situation where people focus more on what Reynolds can’t do than on what he can, it’s often been missed that over the past three years, 2009-11, Reynolds has hit more homers than any other third baseman, posted the second most runs at the position, and been third amongst third sackers in RBI. That’s top-3 in all three categories in case you missed that. However, we’re 20 games into Reynolds season and he’s hitting .136 with no homer, three RBI and four runs. Even I’m scared now. I don’t think he’s going to pull an Adam Dunn, but that has to be a concern at this point. On the plus side Reynolds is currently walking more often than ever before and his BABIP of .257 fits in nicely with his marks of .257 and .266 the past two years. His current line drive rate is also at a three year high. So why the struggles you ask? He hasn’t hit a single home run to boost his average which is a bit odd since he’s actually hit a few more fly balls than normal. He should rebound if given the time to do so (playing time is obviously a big concern at this point).

Middlebrooks was called up when Kevin Youkilis hit the DL with a back issue. Thought of as one of the handful of best prospects in the game at the hot corner, Middlebrooks had two hits in his first game with the Sox and that opened the floodgates for questions about the prospect. Middlebrooks is solid defensively and on offense he has power to all fields. However his K-rate has hovered around 25-30 percent in the minors, and that doesn’t speak to a guy who is going to be a solid average producer in the big leagues. He’s also displayed that solid pop without ever being a big time power threat, and he’s also not very patient at the plate. Don’t get me wrong the guy has a bright future, but at this point of his development he could benefit from some more time at Triple-A, which he figures to get. Why do I say that? When Youkilis is back with the Sox, where does Middlebrooks play? David Ortiz and Adrian Gonzalez will be the everyday DH and 1B, so what, the Red Sox will put Youkilis on the bench? That’s just not a likely scenario.

Short term you can give Middlebrooks a shot, but I’d be remiss if I didn’t tell you that if it was my team I’d hold on to Reynolds.

Evan Longoria replacement with empty slot: stick with my Daniel Murphy or pick up Pedro Alvarez, Chris Johnson or Chipper Jones?
– @mindmagi

It looks like Longoria will miss anywhere from 6-8 weeks with a hamstring injury, a crushing blow for his owners. Since I’ve gotten similar questions from so many people the past few days, here are a few thoughts on the potential replacements.

Murphy: A nice support player because he qualifies at first, second and third base, Murphy has gone 0-for-9 to drop his average down to .283. That’s certainly a mark he can sustain, he’s a career .291 hitter, but his lack of power right now is pretty brutal (no homers in 99 at-bats and just seven RBI). Murphy will never be anything more than a 15 homer bat, it’s just not his game, but when you don’t steal bases, don’t go deep, and don’t knock runners in, your roster spot is in question in a standard mixed league.

Alvarez: The perpetual underachiever is on fire right now. Over his last 10 games he’s doubled his average from .118 to .242 while socking four homers, knocking in 10 runners and scoring eight times. He still has a whopping 24 Ks in 66 at-bats, and just four walks on the season, but at least the hot run of late gives us some hope that he might finally be starting to live up to expectations, even if there are still significant holes in his game.

Johnson: When you get four hits, including two homers, and six RBI in one game people take notice. Hitting .311 with 14 RBI through 23 games for the Astros, Johnson is a pretty blah option. Not only does he have more Ks (24) than games played, he’s also walked only three times leaving him with a career BB/K mark of 0.16 which is so hideous that the appropriately damning adjective simply slips my mind. Johnson, best case scenario, is a .270-20-80 type of effort, but that doesn’t mean he will reach any of those three totals this year.

Jones: Always productive – when he is on the field. Chipper has repeatedly mentioned to the press that his knees are shot, and that it’s a struggle to make it out onto the field every night. Chipper has four homers and 14 RBI through 16 games, and that .273 average is obviously sustainable, but you have to set your sights with him on a replication of last years efforts, nothing more (.275-18-70 in 126 games).

Mariano Rivera and Jesus Montero for Albert Pujols, what do you think?
– @wbischof

Andruw Jones once fell on his face going from an All-Star to after thought in one season. Adan Dunn did is last year. Mark Reynolds may be on his way to doing it this year. Albert Pujols will not follow that path. It’s possible that Pujols will end the year with the worst numbers of his career, he’s been so awful for 25 games that there is a very real possibility that will happen (.208-0-5-9). Still, are you really going to throw out 11 years of excellence over one bad month? If you are I will not be joining you. Does anyone out there honestly doubt that Pujols could hit .300 with 30 homers and 100 RBI in his remaining 130 games? I’m not saying he will, but I still think it’s possible.

Rivera, given the lunacy that has occurred in bullpens across baseball, has to be one of the most valuable players in fantasy baseball. All he does is go out there, year after year, and produce (check out his efforts over at Fleaflicker). Nothing has changed there at all. Montero has appeared in eight games at catcher (seven starting), so there might still be some leagues where he only qualifies at DH which limits his value. If he qualifies at catcher how can you complain about a guy who is on pace to hit better than .290 with more than 20 homers? You can’t. Still, the guys has 19 Ks in 23 games and he’s walked just two times. Eventually an approach like that is bound to catch up to anyone making Montero hard pressed to be someone you should be looking at hitting .300 this year.

If you’re one of those people who is stuck at catcher – you’ve been rolling out there Kurt Suzuki and Geo Soto – and if you’re bullpen was at one point anchored by Andrew Bailey and Drew Storen, then you could hold on to the duo. If that isn’t the case I’m all about adding Albert Pujols. The breakout is coming.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: April 26, 2012

I’m Ray Flowers, co-host of The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Each week I’ll be here answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

I have Neil Walker at 2b & Jemile Weeks at MI. Omar Infante still available on the waiver-wire. Do I grab Omar over NW or JW?
– @DadofReilly

Walker is hitting only .224 with no homers and five RBI through 17 games, a dreadful start for a guy who came into the season with a fair amount of hype. To be fair we’re only talking about 58 at-bats, and Walker does have 12 hits in his last 10 games, but disappointing is certainly a word I would use to describe a guy coming off a 83 RBI, 76 run campaign who has started like this. Weeks has been just as bad hitting a mere .200 with a pathetic .253 OBP, but he does have two homers, three steals and nine runs scored, so he hasn’t been an unmitigated disaster (Week’s brother, Rickie, has been pretty unimpressive since the start of last season. For more see Fact of the Day, April 25thBaseballGuys.com). At the same time, I always felt that Jemile was getting too much love in fantasy circles heading into the 2012 season.

Infante continues to act like he thinks he is Robinson Cano. Through a mere 13 games Infante is hitting .313 with five home runs. Infante is a .275 career hitter, and he hit .305 in 2009 and .321 in 2010, so it’s possible he could bat .300 this season, though I still consider it unlikely. As for the power, there is no, none, nada, chance that the power display will continue. This is not a Jose Bautista breakout we are witnessing. Infante has one season, and he started playing in the majors in 2002, with more than nine homers (he hit 16 back in 2004). Per 162 games in his career, a career that has lasted long enough for him to accrue over 3,200 big league at-bats, Infante has averaged 10 homers. He’s already halfway to that average — in 13 games thanks to a four times increase in his HR/F rate (it’s currently at 20.8 percent versus a career mark of 5.2 percent).

Given how hot he has been, there are very few fantasy baseball leagues out there in which Infante should be on waivers considering he has been the third most productive second base eligible player per contest according to Fleaflicker. That said, he’s got no shot at ll of sustaining his unbelievable start. If you wanted to move on from either of your current players I would suggest dropping Walker because his skill set more closely matches that of Infante (Weeks has game changing speed). I’m not saying I’d rather have Infante for the course of the season over Walker, but there is no denying that right now Infante is the more appealing option.

Drop Bud Norris for Chad Billingsley or Chris Capuano? Or keep the faith?
– @edcolby

Norris is being bailed on by a lot of people who see a 5.84 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP. You should look beyond those numbers to see the following. (1) His 8.03 K/9 rate is impressive. (2) His 2.92 BB/9 mark is a batter below his career level. (3) His 0.97 GB/FB ratio is just off his career rate of 1.02. Still, his HR/FB ratio is way up leading to 1.82 homers per nine innings. That number will not continue (just look at his mark the past two seasons – 1.05 and 1.16). The truth of the matter is that Norris has pitched way better than his fantasy ratios would suggest.

Billingsley came out on fire, and it appears that he is well on his way to putting behind him that down 2011 campaign (11-11, 4.21 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 152 Ks). The biggest key for Billingsley in the early going, the main reason he has a 3.04 ERA and 0.93 WHIP through four starts, is the fact that he just isn’t beating himself. A guy who walks about 3.9 batters per nine innings for his career, that mark currently sits at 1.90. Guys just don’t drop two batters off their BB/9 mark after being at another level for five years, but it’s still encouraging to see him throwing more strikes. At the same time, Billingsley’s current 7.23 K/9 mark would actually be a six year low, so maybe he’s changed his approach a wee bit. It’s also a pretty good bet that Chad won’t be able to keep batters to a .195 average (.249 for his career) once the innings start to pile up.

Capuano is slowly starting to get some love in the fantasy game. A huge injury risk since the virtually the day he was drafted, here are Capuano’s innings pitched totals the past five years: 150, zero, zero, 66 and 186. Yeah, he’s one risky cat to own. Capuano does have solid K potential (7.83 per nine this year, 8.13 last season), pitches in a solid pitchers park in Los Angeles (he also gets to make starts in pitcher havens such as San Diego and San Francisco), and he’s a cheap option that is likely still on many a waiver-wire even with his solid start (2-0, 3.52 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 20 Ks in 23 IP).

I’m taking Billingsley knowing full well that he has no chance of keeping up his current pace. So why suggest adding the Dodgers’ righty then? Consistency (something Capuano certainly can’t offer). Billingsley takes the ball every five days and gives his team a chance to win more times than not. Norris has a “bigger” arm, but he’s also inconsistent and pitches for a team that might struggle to provide him with enough run support for him to reach double-digits in victories.

Should I drop Kelly Johnson to sign Jose Altuve?
– @theYankeeHajny

Johnson hit .222 last year and has started out this year with a .231 average through 17 games so I get the concern. At the same time, Johnson has hit 20 homers with 75 runs scored and 13 steals each of the past two years. Those aren’t fantastic numbers but they are still numbers that only one second sacker have reached each of the past two years. A guy like that, even with a potential batting average deficiency, shouldn’t be given up on lightly (it should be pointed out that Johnson does have a .259 career average and that he hit .284 as recently as 2010).

Altuve has been hot with the twig hitting .377 through 69 at-bats. However, let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves. First, Altuve isn’t going to hit the ball into the seats (three homers in 290 career at-bats), which also will likely lead to a poor RBI total for an every week starter in most mixed leagues. Second, though speedy, he’s only had one effort of 30 steals and he has 11 in 75 big league games. He could easily steal 20 bases this year, he already has four, but his not going to light up the steals category. Third, and I hate to break it to you all, but he’s not a great hitter. Having completely skipped Triple-A, Altuve has only 290 at-bats above Double-A, and that concerns me a bit given that he isn’t exactly the most patient hitter in the world, and that could drain his batting average a bit when he gets into a funk. It’s also a pretty fair guess that his current .431 BABIP will likely regress by a .100 or so points, and that will cause his batting average to dip accordingly.

Give me Johnson over the slap it and run Altuve, but make sure you have other hitters on your club who can cover the poor average you are likely to receive from Johnson.

I trade Adrian Gonzalez and Nelson Cruz for Albert Pujols and Hanley Ramirez. Do it?
– @bearnvegas

Everyone, let’s stop the panic with Pujols. Some facts. In every season of his career he’s finished the year hitting at least .299 with 34 homers, 99 RBI and 99 runs scored. Right now he’s hitting .222-0-4-6. Assuming he reaches his “worst” totals, numbers he has reached in each of the past 11 seasons, that means from this point forward that he is going to blast 34 homer with 94 RBI and 93 runs scored. And those numbers would merely equal his career worsts. As for the batting average, assuming 574 at-bats (his seasonal average the first nine years), Pujols would hit .311 the rest of the season. Despite the slow start, I think all of those targets are fair which leads me to the position that I would still prefer Pujols to AGone (.303-2-13-9).

Cruz can be a beast, but he’s always seemingly hurt (the last three seasons he has averaged just 120 games a season which dings his value substantially). He’s also hit under .265 in two of his last three seasons. There are also questions about just how much running he will be allowed to do given his continued issues with his wheels (he’s stolen 10 bases in his last 143 games after stealing 37 bases in 2009-10). Hanley is hitting just .238, and coming off shoulder surgery, but he qualifies at shortstop and second base, and that’s huge. He’s also gone deep four times while stealing four bases, a pace that would lead to a 35/35 season if he were to maintain it (obviously that’s doubtful).

Get Pujols and HanRam. AGone and Cruz should not be dealt to anyone lightly, but this is a pretty impressive return.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday. 

Mailbag: April 19, 2012

I’m Ray Flowers, co-host of The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Each week I’ll be here answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Justin Morneau just hit the wire. Drop Dexter Fowler, Kendrys Morales or Billy Butler to get him?
– @JoshNarva

I’m cheering on Morneau as much as the next guy, but let’s slow our roll here a bit. I know that he’s playing defense which is great news, and that he has hit three homers in his last two games. All of that is well and good. However, someone needs to mention that the last time this guy had 300 at-bats was 2009. It should also be noted that over his last 80 games played Morneau has hit .235 with eight homers and 36 RBI. I’m all for hoping he will return to being the 20-100 man he was for 4-straight years from 2006-09, but he’ll need a lot more than two strong games to convince me he is back to that level.

The obvious move to be made would be to drop Morales. Both play first base and both are coming off injury. But think back three weeks. Is there anyone, and I mean any one of you, that drafted Morneau ahead of Morales? I bet there wasn’t one of you as Morneau was still struggling while Morales was simply bashing the ball in Spring Training. Ask yourself this question. Are you going to let 11 games, the total each has played this season, change the opinion that you held three weeks ago?

Should I drop Carlos Marmol for Santiago Casilla, Fernando Rodney or Jim Johnson?
– @harveynuts

More panic in the streets when it comes to closers, but I can’t really blame anyone (did you see the crazy news that Brad Lidge is dealing with vertigo? It’s like anything, and I literally mean anything, could sideline a 9th inning arm at this point. I fully expect one of the closers in the game to go missing in the Bermuda Triangle at some point in the near future).

Quickly, my thoughts on each.

Johnson has been stable, after some spring concerns, converting all five of his save chances. His K-rate is uninspiring (5.77 per nine for his career), ditto his K/BB (2.01), but he keeps the ball on the ground (57 percent). He could offer a 2011 Brandon League type effort if everything goes just right.

Rodney, how can I put this? He stinks. From 2007-11, that’s 270 games worth of pitching, had an ERA of  4.42, a WHIP of 1.50 and his K/BB was pathetic at 1.57. He wasn’t, and let me stress this, league average in any of those three categories the past five years. Good luck with him holding down the 9th inning job all year even if he’s been one of the better producers this season (see Fleaflicker).

Casilla has concerns as well, primarily his lack of pinpoint control. For more, see The On Deck Circle.

Keep Marmol. Not only does he have the longest track record of 9th inning success among this group, he’s also the most dominating option with one of the best K-rate’s in the history of baseball (min. 450 innings pitched his 11.73 K/9 mark is 4th all-time with the leader being Rob Dibble at 12.17). With Kerry Wood dealing with arms woes who would the Cubs turn to – Shawn Camp or James Russell? Please.

With RP being a crap shoot so far, does the value of Jose Valverde increase?
– @Phastball

It depends on how you view the value of Valverde. Is his job safe? Absolutely. Is he coming off a perfect season with 49 saves in 49 chances given him a massive amount of rope? Without question. At the same time, he didn’t pitch near as well last season as most people assume when they look at the save conversion rate. (1) Since 2006 his K/9 rate has gone down every season. 2011 was the first time in his career that he struck out less than a batter per inning. (2) Never a paint the corner artist, Valverde has walked an average of 4.39 batters per nine innings the past two years, more than a full batter worse than the league average. (3) His career GB/FB ratio of 0.96 is less than the big league average (about 1.10), another mark against him. I’m not predicting failure from him in 2012, he’ll get his saves, but realize he isn’t the pitcher that he was a few years ago even if he’s been so impressive at converting those save chances of late.

What do you think about Tommy Milone? What’s the comparable ceiling for this guy?
– @tallen1984

Scouts like Milone, but at the same time they’ve always been a bit reluctant to fully push him as an elite prospect since his pure “stuff” just isn’t that dominant. However, he had one of the more remarkable seasons of any minor league hurler last year when he went 12-6 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over 148.1 innings at Triple-A. While those are good numbers, here is the remarkable part – he struck out more than a batter per inning, 155 in total, while walking 16 batters – sixteen. That’s 16 walks in 24 starts folks leading to a 9.69 K/BB ratio. Amazing.

Milone figures to have success, he certainly knows how to pitch, but he still throws 87-88 mph, and there is no way he’s going to be able to post numbers in the bigs like he did last season in the minors. The best case scenario for him this year is something akin to what Mark Buehrle accomplished last year (13-9, 3.59 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 109 Ks).

Nolan Reimold or Matt Joyce for 4th OF?
– @gtrevino1975

I’ve been getting a ton of Reimold questions thanks to his impressive start (.341/.357/.707, four homers, eight RBI), but I’m not shocked at his success. In the 2012 BBGuys Draft Guide, I highlighted Reimold as a potential breakout performer you could grab on the cheap. Reimold has flashed the type of skills that lead one to believe that if he gets daily playing time, something he has received in the early going, that he could hit 25 homers and steal 15 bases (he is dealing with neck spasms and a hammy injury though, so there are a few health woes to worry about). He may never be more than a league average type in batting average, nothing in his K-rate, BB-rate, BABIP, GB/FB, LD-rate says he is anything but blah, but those counting numbers could be pretty darn solid if he gets 500 at-bats.

The real question here is do you go with the hot start and potential of Reimold and forgive the fact that he’s been lingering as a letdown for the past few years, or do you turn to Joyce who had a nice season last year when he posted a fantasy line of .277-19-75-69-13. In essence, Joyce was the type of player last season that many “think” Reimold can be. It’s not like Joyce has a long track record of success compared to Reimold, but I’m a fan of been there, done that. I had Joyce a few spots ahead of Reimold in my rankings three weeks ago before the season started, and Reimold is bit beat up right now physically, so I’m still leaning in the direction of Joyce right now.

Mat Latos was just dropped. I have Ted Lilly, Matt Harrison and Brandon Beachy. Do I drop anyone for him?
– @GetARealJob111

This is all I’m going to say about Ted Lilly. Since 2007 Lilly has the 5th best base runner per nine inning (10.40) mark of any pitcher in baseball who has thrown at least 750-innings, and he’s one of just 14 pitchers who has an K/9 mark of 7.50 in four of the last five seasons, minimum 150 IP a year (he just missed making it 5-for-5 last year with his 7.38 mark).

Beachy has a stupendous arm. In 168.2 career innings he has a K/9 rate of 10.30 and a K/BB rate of 3.33. Those are elite numbers. I’m not letting a young hurler with numbers like that go.

The guy you let go of to add Latos, and please add Latos and don’t panic with his poor performance to date (0-2, 8.22 ERA, 1.89 WHIP – it’s been three starts people), is Harrison. For more on why you should move on from Harrison see Quick Starting Pitchers.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday.  

Mailbag: April 12, 2012

I’m Ray Flowers, co-host of The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Each week I’ll be here answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

*Note: The following article is filled with plenty of questions that might seem knee jerk and laughable to you. Trust me though, these aren’t the only questions I’ve received along these lines. It’s like there is an epidemic of itchy trigger fingers in the world of fantasy baseball right now. Before proceeding to read my answers to today’s questions, I’d suggest that all of you take a moment to read Panic In the Streets.

A guy dropped Josh Johnson 2nite…
– @Gregor21

It’s been two starts covering 9.2 innings. If you were going to draft Johnson in the first place how on earth could you bail on him after two starts – when he’s healthy? The key with Johnson will be his health. If he can take the ball 30 times he’ll be a strong option – period. The only real issue with Johnson is his track record of ill health. The guy owns a 3.05 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and an 8.23 K/9 mark for his career. I’ll trust 735 innings over a poor 9.2 to start the 2012 season, won’t you?

Who is next in line for saves if Joe Nathan tanks?
– @Steverland

I’ll admit to understanding this question, though I’m still not a fan. Closers can lose their jobs much quicker than starters, and with roughly a third of all the big league teams making some type of change in the 9th inning versus what their plans were two months ago, I totally understand the trepidation anyone would have if they see one of their guys struggling in the 9th inning. At the same time, we’re talking about four innings with Nathan. F-O-U-R. In his first three of his outings of the year he allowed one hit, no walks, and one run. Sure he gave up three runs in his last outing, but he’s still sporting five Ks and no walks through four innings. Hell, Mariano Rivera gave up two runs while recording only a single out in his first trip to the hill this season. The Rangers manager, Ron Washington, said that he will give Nathan Thursday off to collect himself, but he also emphatically stated that Nathan is still his closer. Believe him. If I had to chose a backup option, I’d be thinking Mike Adams.

Should I drop Kenley Jansen for Fernando Rodney? No other current closers available on wire.
– @TheSchwan

This question is prompted by two things. (1) The inequitable way we reward relievers in the the fantasy game. (2) Worrying too much about right now and not enough about the next 150 games.

(1) We reward saves in the fantasy game. Therefore, any time a change is made in the 9th inning a virtual stampede occurs. No one pays any attention to the relievers and tries to decide if the pitcher is any good. All we care about is getting the saves. It’s why I’ve long championed changing saves to Solds in the fantasy game (Solds = saves+holds). If we used Solds we’d be more worried about rostering the better pitcher than we are about being consumed with adding the guy who is currently holding down the role of closer.

(2) Through a week of the season, Rodney has three saves and has looked solid whereas Jansen has done the same thing – albeit without the saves. As a result, Rodney’s current value in the fantasy game is higher despite the fact that he isn’t a better pitcher. In my book, especially this early in a season where I’m not desperate to chase saves, I’m going skills over role. That means I want Jansen. Think I’m crazy do you? Let’s compare some career numbers with the two hurlers.

Jansen: 15.23 K/9, 4.31 BB/9, 3.54 K/BB, 2.21 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, .151 BAA
Rodney: 8.20 K/9, 4.85 BB/9, 1.69 K/BB, 4.26 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, .242 BAA

Are you seeing what I’m seeing? Jansen betters Rodney in every category, and five of the six by a massive amount. You can roster Rodney and hope he some doesn’t revert the pitcher he has always been, but my money is on Joe Maddon realizing, sooner rather than later, that the last time Rodney was a better than average big league hurler was 2007.

I can’t keep Stephen Strasburg at the end of this year. Would you trade him for Tim Lincecum straight up?
– @SubtleStatement

This is the most reasonable question I received in the last day about Lincecum who went out and laid another egg in his second start of the season. I’m utterly amazed at how quickly people are considering bailing on Lincecum. Consider the following. (1) Lincecum has made 4-straight All-Star teams. (2) Lincecum has two two Cy Young Awards in four seasons. (3) Lincecum has never finished outside the top-10 in Cy Young Voting in four full seasons. (4) He’s the only pitcher in baseball with at least 220 Ks each of the past four seasons. No other pitcher has more than two 220 K seasons the past four years (Jon Lester and Felix Hernandez). (5) Even with his struggles this year he has 10 Ks in just 7.2 innings, and with only three walks still has a 3.33 K/BB ratio which is better than his career mark of 2.98. (6) Lincecum has done this before – struggled mightily I mean. In 2010 he went 0-5 with a 7.82 ERA and 1.82 WHIP in the month of August. He rebounded to go 5-1 with a 1.94 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in September.

I would do this deal. It’s quite possible that Strasburg will better The Freak in both ERA and WHIP, but with the potential of 50 or more innings from Lincecum, remember the Nationals have set an innings pitched limit with Strasburg of 160, I’d take the Giants ace.

How patient should one be with Brandon Belt situation?
– @jfeiger

Great question. I’ve been on record for months now telling everyone that I didn’t see how Belt was going to get 500 at-bats this season. Most didn’t listen, everyone wants to believe that the next big thing will be the next big thing right away, but alas, the Belt situation is playing out as I expected it would. The Giants have an overpaid run producer in Aubrey Huff. Since he’s also a team leader, he figures to play almost every day, either at first or in the outfield. The Giants traded for Melky Cabrera who will play every day. They also added Angel Pagan to add a speed element that the team is sorely lacking. If all three of those guys are in the outfield than Belt can play first base. However, I’ve totally left out the Giants best defensive outfielder who just so happened to pop two long balls Wednesday in Nate Schierholtz. Obviously, this situation is going to leave one guy out in the cold every day. Given that Belt hit just .225 last year, and that he’s started out 1-for-11 this year, it appears that he is already losing ground to the other “proven” players. I’m fully aware that Belt is “the future” and that he has been given only 198 at-bats to this point of his career, but unless he turns things on quickly, or one of the other four is injured, Belt may struggle for at-bats in the early going.

What do you think about Aramis Ramirez? Buy-low trade candidate?
– @Fury5701

Remember that article I referred to at the top of the piece entitled Panic in the Streets? If you didn’t give it a read then now is the time to scroll back up to the top of the page to read it because it will point out something about Aramis Ramirez that should help you to easily answer this question.

To track who has been the best at putting up 5×5 fantasy numbers in the early going make sure to visit Fleaflicker.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday.

Mailbag: April 3, 2012

I’m Ray Flowers, co-host of The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Each week I’ll be here answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Head to head, 9th pick 12 team. Robinson Cano, Justin Upton, Adrian Gonzalez, Carlos Gonzalez, Evan Longoria, Jacoby Ellsbury, Prince Fielder. Top 2 in order please?
– @Quinn8585

Here’s the dirty little secret of fantasy baseball – no one really knows the answer to this question. We all obsess over who to take in the first an second rounds as if the answer matters more than air. In truth, no one knows. I’ve been  referring to the study in the 2012 Baseball Forecaster by Baseball HQ to make my point (pp.42-43). According to HQ’s research, over the past eight years you have a 37.5 percent chance of drafting someone in the top-15 and at the end of the year finding them inside the top-15 in production. That means, and we’re talking eight years here, that you have roughly a one in three chance of “hitting” on your first round selection. On the flip side that means 2/3′s of the players drafted in the first round this year will not return first round value when the 2012 season is complete. Remember that next time your biting your fingernails trying to figure out who the best guy is to draft in the first round. If it was my team I’d take CarGo and Robinson Cano.

I was offered a trade, Joey Votto for Prince Fielder. Maybe I’m splitting hairs but I don’t see a big difference, do you?
– @AtlFan23

Well, if we are talking about a standard 5×5 fantasy league I think there is a difference, and it’s two-fold. First, Fielder has hit .282 for his career. In two of the past four years he’s failed to reach that mark, and he’s never hit .300 in a season (he fell one hit short last year finishing at .299). Votto has hit .313 for his career, has hit at least .309 each of the past three years, and in four full big league seasons he has never hit lower than .297. Votto is clearly the better play in batting average. The second area in which he takes a step over Fielder is in the steals category. Now I doubt Votto is going to steal 16 bases again as he did in 2010, but he did flash enough speed to swipe another eight bags last year giving him a two year average of 12 steals a season. Fielder has a mere 16 steals in his career including two the past two seasons. An eight steal different doesn’t sound like much, but it’s a huge fantasy boost in value for Votto. Also, one last point that tips things in the favor of Votto. Fielder has been the slightly better power bat with bigger homer totals, but this season he moves from a park in Milwaukee that was the second best homer park in the NL the past three years for lefties (according to Park Indices), for one in Detroit that was only 10th best in the AL for lefties. It’s quite possible that the homer gap between the two disappears this season.

I was offered Kendrys Morales for Michael Young straight up – would you accept that offer?
– @Jpetermon

Hype always amazes me. Every year we see rookies and youngsters driven up to the point that they are being drafted as if they were five time all-star’s (hello Brett Lawrie and Matt Moore). We also get players who excel in spring training being drafted way too early (I’m thinking Lorenzo Cain might fit into this category this year). A player that certainly fits into this second group is Morales. I know he has gone 11-for-26 (.423) with two homers but where is this hysteria coming from? How many at-bats did Morales have last year? Zero. How many at-bats has Morales had since the All-Star break in 2010? Zero? In fact, over the past twenty two months Morales has zero big league at-bats (he last appeared in a game on May 29th, 2010). Not just that, we’re talking about 26 spring training at-bats as well, that’s the definition of small sample size. Sure he’s looked great at this dish this spring, and he was a 34 homers, 108 RBI bat who hit .306 in 2009, but Carlos Lee hit .300 with 26 homers and 102 RBI in 2009 (not exactly a great comparison I know, but hopefully you get my point). Morales might return to being a top-10 first basemen this season but there is no way I’d take him in a deal straight up for Michael Young, one of the most consistent hitters in baseball the past decade. No thanks.

Jonathan Broxton and uncertainty in Kansas City, or Mark Melancon and uncertainty in Boston?
– @mrlcpbra

I have probably, and I’m not exaggerating for effect here, received 150 questions about the Red Sox and Royals bullpen situations over the past 10 days. Hell, that number may be well over 250 to be truthful. Here’s a form of what I’ve said to everyone who has asked; when the team doesn’t even know who they are going to turn to in the 9th inning, how in the world am I supposed to know what the “right” answer is? The answer to this question basically comes down to your philosophy on relievers. Some bullet points to consider.

* I can’t read a manager’s mind. I have no idea how he will handle the 9th inning call. Will he choose to go with experience, guile, stuff, match ups?

* Teams don’t always go with their best pitcher in the 9th inning, and that makes answering this issue, from a fantasy baseball perspective, maddening. Think of the Nationals. Their best reliever is Tyler Clippard, so he should be the first choice to fill in for the injured Drew Storen. However, the team thinks that Clippard is far too important in his setup role to handle the ninth inning so it looks like the save chances will be given to Brad Lidge and Henry Rodriguez who are inferior pitchers to Clippard.

* If closer number one is out of commission, how long a leash will the “backup” closer have? If he blows two saves will the manager flip to option three?

* Given all of that, I target skills not role. That’s my choice. In the end I think that skills win out. Teams tire quickly – unless you’re Kevin Gregg – of seeing their closers struggle to close out games in the 9th. Eventually the most skilled players should, notice I say should, gravitate to the 9th inning (it’s why I have recommended Kenley Jansen over Javy Guerra even though Guerra is set up to be the closer to start the year for the Dodgers). Eventually if you go with the skills you will be rewarded. However, let me be clear, that does not mean you will always make the “right” fantasy choice. The fact of the matter is that you need saves, and if Javy Guerra gives you 29 saves with a 4.43 ERA he’s still going to provide more fantasy value than Jansen and his six saves and 2.13 ERA. That’s just the breaks in the standard 5×5 fantasy game.

Given all of that, I’d go with Greg Holland and Mark Melancon if I was deciding on who to add from the Royals and Red Sox bullpens.

Thirteen team 7×7 roto. Closer neglect left me with just Andrew Bailey. Free agent list dry. OK to punt? Can it be done?
– @FearNLoathinNyc

I don’t ever recommend to someone that they punt a category, but you can do it an win (it stands an even better chance of being successful in a head-to-head league than a roto league). For a breakdown of this strategy see Punting Categories – A Good Idea?

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday. Ray’s baseball analysis can be found at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Comments: Greatest Hits

At the bottom of all my articles readers are encouraged to leave their thoughts on my work, to ask questions, or just to blow off some steam. I have to admit that there are some pretty good queries thrown up there at times. Today, I’ve compiled some of those thoughts into an article since I doubt most of you spend much time reading my responses unless they are to your own questions.

Jake – Is there any sort of format that you might suggest that combines a season long roto format along with some type of playoff at the end of the season?

BBGuys - Your issue of people stopping to care late in the year is common. Unfortunately, I don’t have a good answer on how to stop this. Reason being is this – playoffs take skill out of the mix and go more with luck. Do you want to give someone a “win” in a playoff week because they picked up Brandon Crawford and he had a better week than Troy Tulowitzki? Do you want to reward a 2-start James McDonald over a one start Roy Halladay? When you break the game down into playoff segments the sample size shrinks, and with it the luck factor goes up. To me, we are best served rewarding year long excellence versus weekly luck.

Mike – As much as I love Evan Longoria this year, were you tempted with Jacoby Ellsbury still available? For him to fall to #12 seems shocking to me.

*** This questions refers to The FSTA Draft that was held in Vegas during which I chose Longoria #10 overall instead of Ellsbury. Over at Fleaflicker they also have Longoria going off the board after Ellsbury.

BBGuys - Here’s the deal. Only 37.5% all all the top-15 selections the last eight years have returned top-15 production (that’s from the Baseball Forecaster). In essence, we all spend way too much time worry about our first round pick when they are more likely to fail to live up to expectations than to meet or exceed them. Second, Ellsbury’s game was his speed, and after averaging 60 SB his last two healthy seasons he saw his steal total fail to hit 40 last year. That’s a big concern for me. Third, never in his life did Ellsbury show 30 HR power. Remember, he had 20 homers in his first 349 games. Players just don’t hold on to gains like the one he showed last season. Sure Kirby Puckett and Jose Bautista did, but you get my point. I just can’t see Ellsbury holding on to his 17 percent HR/F rate. I also don’t think he’s a .320 hitter. If he goes .285-20-75-100-40 is he a first round pick? You could certainly argue that persuasively, but I don’t know if that would make him much different than Andrew McCutchen.

Marc in CO – In addition to waiting on a 1B, you also waited to pick a SS (Yunel Escobar in the 13th). Can you give us your thoughts on him in specific and the shortstop position in general in terms of draft strategy?

BBGuys - I waited on the shortstop because that’s how the draft played out. Also, since I had two second basemen, I didn’t need to worry about my MI spot, so it was as much a combination of factors as anything else. As for Escobar, I like what he brings. Not much upside power wise, he hits everything into the ground, an obviously he’s not a speed demon, but his skill set is stable. Take out 2010 and you have three nearly identical seasons in 2008-09, 2011. I’ll take .290-10-60-75-5 from my SS and be pretty happy with it since in reality he is my MI behind Brandon Phillips and Dustin Pedroia.

Rick – Are you worried about the suspension of Ryan Braun? Do you think it will be the same old same old when he returns? Also now that this is out here are you worried that his numbers will fall off a cliff like Arod?

BBGuys – I’m not worried about Braun at all. Just expect 2/3 of his normal production for 2012 and you should be fine (just check out his rookie numbers to see how amazing he can be in limited playing time). MLB has done testing for years, so clearly we have to assume that Braun hasn’t been doing something illegal for a long time. In fact, I’m still not convinced that he took “steroids.”  Regardless, Braun is 28 this year – still very young. Arod is 36. Arod’s decline had nothing to do with getting of the juice, he was simply experience a slow down with age. Remember, Arod had 54 homers, 156 RBIs and a 1.067 OPS in 2007 – he used steroids in 2001-03.

Wesley – Hey Ray. What do you think of Carl Crawford and Carlos Gonzalez? I feel they’re going to be good values and bounce back guys.

BBGuys - Two different stories. CarGo hit .295, went 20/20, and scored/knocked in 90 runs last year. There’s not much to “bounce back” from there. If he had played another 20 games we’d be talking about a .300-30-100-100-20 season. Expecting more than that is asking too much.

Crawford on the other hand is a prime bounce back candidate. according to Fleaflicker’s numbers, Crawford is being drafted inside the top-70 overall.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: September 21, 2011

There are only days left in the 2011 fantasy baseball season. With that fact, let’s look forward to 2012 with today’s mailbag piece from questions that were submitted at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Is Melky Cabrera a top-20 OF going into 2012 season and is he worthy of a keeper spot in 16 team league (keeping eight)?
– @JakobMD

This will likely be a hot button question for many heading into 2012, so why not address it in 2011.

Coming into the 2011 season, Cabrera was one of those guys that you weren’t overly happy to have as your fourth or fifth outfielder in a 12 team mixed leagues. He wasn’t going to kill you you any category, but he also wasn’t going to a big help. In fact, the best 5×5 numbers that he posted from 2005-10 would lead you to a season of .280-13-73-75-13. Again, those aren’t horrible numbers, but nothing in that line really pops. In addition, his slash line of .267/.328/.379 from 2005-10 was actually worse than the league average of .269/.337/.425. He just wasn’t anything other than average.

This year that’s changed. Cabrera is two homers away from going 20/20, and he’s also hitting a career best .305. Mind you, he’d only hit better than .275 once, and had never hit 15 homers or stolen 15 bases in a season. One of the reasons for that counting category growth is that he’s posted a whopping 686 plate appearances, 158 more than he averaged from 2005-10. When a guy racks up 700 plate appearances he’s going to have solid counting numbers.

The real question I have is has he shown any skills growth? Let’s take a look.

This year his line drive rate is 20.5 percent. His career mark is 19.4 percent.
This year his ground ball rate is 47.1 percent. His career mark is 48.7 percent.
This year his fly ball rate is 32.4 percent. His career mark is 31.9 percent.

Nothing has changed there.

This year his walk rate is 4.8 percent. Not only is that well below his career rate of 7.4 percent, it’s also a career worst.

This year his K-rate is 13.3 percent. Not only is that worse than his career mark of 12.0, it’s also a career worst.

Those are not changes for the good.

This year Cabrera has a BABIP mark of .330. The owner of a career mark of .298, Cabrera’s BABIP has been under that .298 mark in each of his previous four seasons.

This year his HR/F ratio is 10.2 percent. That’s certainly not a crazy number, but it’s 40 percent higher than his 7.0 career rate. This will also mark only the second season of his career with a mark above his 7.0 percent career rate.

So what does all of that mean? It means that the reason that Cabrera has been so impressive this year is a little luck (BABIP, HR/F) and a big time result of all of his plate appearances. Throw in a declining walk rate and a rising K-rate, and the smart money would be on Cabrera failing to duplicate his 2011 efforts next season. Given that, I simply cannot suggest to anyone that Cabrera has a legitimate shot at being a top-20 outfielder in 2012, but that doesn’t mean he shouldn’t be kept if 128 players are being protected in your league.

Thanks for the great advice and info. Came in 2nd in my 12T H2H league. Quick Q: Why do you prefer roto over H2H?
– @samuelrsantana

There are so many reasons why baseball should be rotisserie over head to head (H2H), let me count the ways.

(1) Baseball is a marathon with 162 games. H2H turns that marathon into a sprint. If you’re looking for the fantasy game to somewhat approximate the on field product, then the fantasy game should operate as a mirror image of that actual game. In baseball that means you should play a season of 1-162 games played, not some artificially contrived session of a weekly match up. Let me give you a concrete example of why this is in point #2.

(2) We all know that Albert Pujols will hit .300-30-100 (he’s on the cusp of doing it for the 11th straight season to start his career). However, we really have no idea when he will go deep, when he will produce hits, and when he will knock runners in. If you’re playing in a H2H match up what happens if Pujols hits .450 with three homers and 10 RBI? You’ll likely win that week. What happens though if he hits .150 with no homers and no RBI the following week? You would likely loose that week. Still, if Pujols followed this path, alternating greatness with putrid work, he’d end the year batting .300 with something like 39 homers and 130 RBI. That’s a phenomenal season, right? However, in H2H he’d be a killer to your club in those 13 weeks that he disappeared. Baseball is about consistency and working through the grind as much as anything. When you play H2H you remove that aspect of the game completely.

(3) Would you ever draft Gavin Floyd over Dan Haren? That’s like saying you would prefer to cuddle up with Cate Blanchett over Brooklyn Decker? However, there are scenarios where you would end up starting Floyd over Haren simply because you’re looking at one week segments (there is no scenario in which Cate would be the choice over Brooklyn). What if Haren was facing the Yankees and Floyd was pitching in Seattle and Oakland – would you start Floyd because he was a two start pitcher on the road, where he has success, in two parks that favor the hurler? Even worse, would you start a guy like Rick Porcello or Luke Hochevar over Haren if they had two starts? The answer is you might, and we’ve all made that decision at one point or another. However, does this make any sense? Of course it doesn’t.  We’re sometimes “forced” to go with an inferior pitcher merely because we need the starts to keep up with our opponent in the H2H format. In this instance we’re not rewarding the fantasy owner who rostered the players with the best skill, we’re merely rewarding those that were first two the waiver-wire to add a 2-start pitcher. There isn’t any skill in that.

I’m just going to say it: H2H has infected baseball because of it’s proliferation in fantasy football. It’s one of the worst trends to hit fantasy baseball – ever. If you want to go soft and set your lineup once a week, I can live with that. However, if you want to make baseball a one week match up against an opponent you’re bastardizing the game of baseball completely.

There, I said it.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87.

Mailbag: September 13, 2011

There are only a few weeks left in the 2011 fantasy baseball season, sniffle, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t still championships to be won. Here are the answers to some of the questions that I have recently received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Of these four, who to keep: Eric Hosmer, Dustin Ackley, Michael Pineda and Mike Trout? We start three outfielders and two utility.
– @TheRKG

Hosmer has had a spectacular rookie campaign hitting .286 with 17 homers, 69 RBI,. 56 runs and a surprising 10 steals. If he swipes 15 bases a season that will be an immense boost to his fantasy value at a position that sports, to be kind, few speed demons. However, a .285-25-90-80 season, while a terrific effort, leaves one well off the pace of the elite at the position, and that marks Hosmer’s keeper value in this setup as low.

Ackley has been as good as advertised. Hitting .290, he’s also taken his walks leading to a .367 OBP, and he’s shown solid extra base power as well for a second sacker (.452 SLG). If we take his production from 76 games this year and double it we’d end up with a second baseman hitting .290 with 12 homer, 68 RBI, 74 runs and eight steals. Those numbers would put him in contention for being a top-15 second baseman.

Pineda has been as good as advertised this year. Yes he’s had a bit of a rough go of late, but he’s still posted 171 Ks in 167 innings, has limited batters to a .208 batting average, and has a 1.08 WHIP in his 27 starts. It’s not his fault that he is 9-10 (thank his teammates anemic hitting). With a year under his belt next season, there’s no reason to expect any fall off in his production, and the team just might turn him loose for 200 innings as well.

Trout probably has more talent than anyone on this list, and that’s saying something. The uber-talented outfielder can’t legally buy a beer yet, but he has five homers, 15 RBI and 18 runs scored over just 100 at-bats. However, the Angels have Bobby Abreu, Torii Hunter and Peter Bourjos in the outfield, and if Kendrys Morales returns to action next year, that means the DH spot will be filled by him or Mark Trumbo. As you can see, there is still a chance that Trout will not open the year with the big league club so that he can gain a little more experience in the minors. Regardless, since this league starts only three outfielders, it’s nearly impossible to suggest keeping Trout.

I’m gonna pass on Trout – he’s not likely to be a top-30 outfielder next season. I’d pass on Hosmer –  I don’t think he’s going to be a top-10 first baseman either. So it’s Ackley or Pineda. Since I’m of the opinion that pitching is variable, and since a single thrown ball can end a pitchers season, I’d settle on Ackley who could be an up the middle star as soon as next year.

Keeping Roy Halladay & Matt Kemp. Can you pick two more from Yovani Gallardo, Michael Bourn, Brian McCann, John Axford, Ben Zobrist and David Ortiz?
– @JonMize1978

Having a better pitcher/hitter combo will be hard to find, so you’re in great shape there.

Gallardo has won 16 games with 183 Ks, a 3.66 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. He’s inconsistent as all hell, but in the end, the production simply cannot be argued with (there are only four pitchers in the NL with 16 wins and 180 Ks – Clayton Kershaw, Cliff Lee, Halladay and Gallardo).

Bourn has 52 steals to lead baseball, his third straight season with at least 50 swipes. He’s also recorded at least 84 runs for the third straight season, and for the second time in three years it looks like he will hit at least .285 (he’s batting .301 right now). He’s an elite performer at what he does.

McCann is as consolid a hitter at the catchers’ position as you’re going to find. He’s hit 23 homers this year, his fourth straight season of at least 21 and the fifth time in six years he has done that. He’s also just four RBI away from a sixth straight season of 70 RBI. There isn’t a more consistent power bat in the game behind the dish.

Axford has been stupendous this year with a 2.16 ERA and 42 saves for the Brewers. His last blown save was on April 18th.

Zobrist qualifies in the outfield and at second base, and that is always a nice bonus. He’s also had a fantastic fantasy season as he’s hit .274 with 15 homers, 82 RBI, 88 runs and 17 steals. Mind you, this is the second time in three seasons that he will go .270-15-80-85-15. As of this writing only four players have done that twice the past three years – Carlos Gonzalez, Matt Kemp, Ryan Braun and Zobrist.

Ortiz is having a fantastic season, he’s on the cusp of his first .300-30-100 season since 2007 (he is hitting .313 with 29 homers and 92 RBI). However, he’ll be 36 next year, has never been a paragon of physical fitness, and he hit .264, .238 and .270 the past three years. Throw in the fact that he only qualifies at DH, and he has limited value.

If I’m protecting four players, only one of them is going to be a pitcher, so Gallardo is out. As great as McCann is, I just don’t trust catchers to stay healthy, so I wouldn’t protect him either. Closers come and go each season, so Axford is out. I love Ortiz and his happy go lucky attitude, but I’m not keeping a DH. That leaves me with Bourn, a truly elite stolen base performer, and Zobrist who is a much better hitter than anyone gives him credit for.

Colby Lewis on waivers – worth a pick up?
– @Robert6286

Colby has won 12 games for the second straight year though his performance has slipped a hair (his ERA has gone from 3.72 to 4.29 and his WHIP from 1.19 to 1.23). Four starts ago his ERA was 3.83 though, but he’s been hit hard over his last four outings leading to 19 earned runs in 21.1 innings for an 8.02 ERA. Normally I would say something like “it’s only four starts, things will even out,” and though I still believe that, we don’t have much time left this year for that stuff to even out. What that means is you need to manage your team differently than you do in May, and by that I mean you have to be looking at each step you take versus focusing on where the steps will take you.

Lewis is a solid hurler who has actually pitched slightly better in the second half of the season (4.15 ERA, 1.21 WHIP) than the first (4.38 and 1.24). Still, he is in the middle of a bad spell right now. His next scheduled start is the 17th in Seattle then the 24th at home against Seattle. You really can’t ask for two better match-ups. So do you start a pitcher with great match-ups, or do you look at his recent work on the bump and run for the hills? I’d let your place in the standings be the ultimate arbiter of that question, but I would hesitate to employ his services unless I was really in need of those innings.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87.

Mailbag: September 6, 2011

The season might be wrapping up, but there are still fantasy championships to be won. At the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account people continually send in questions in search of answers. Hopefully my answers are helpful.

I’m so sick of Tim Stauffer. If I hadn’t reached my season acquisition limit I would never have him pitching.
– @iamfantasyking

Perception is a witch (you know what word really should be there).

I’ll grant you that two of the last five times that Stauffer has taken the hill he has gotten lit up (16 ER in a mere 4.2 innings), and that would kill anyone’s fantasy squad. Hell, the guys seen his ERA go up a full run over his last 10 outings. Who wouldn’t be ticked off? Still, I’m gonna say it’s been a successful season, and so should you.

Stauffer had never made more than 14 starts in a season his big league career and he’s up to 29 this season. That’s led to 173.2 innings, more than double his previous career best of 82.2 innings. Give him a check mark here.

For his career he owns a 3.97 ERA. This season his ERA, despite his recent downturn is 3.83. Give him a check mark here.

For his career he has a 1.32 WHIP. This season his WHIP is 1.27. Give him a check mark here.

For his career his K/9 mark is 6.11. This season his K/9 mark is 6.06. Give him a check mark here.

For his career his BB/9 mark is 3.08. This season his BB/9 mark is 2.64. Give him a check mark here.

For his career his HR/9 mark is 0.98. This season his HR/9 mark is 1.04. Give him a check mark here.

For his career his GB/FB ratio is 1.49. This season his GB/FB mark is 1.83. Give him a check mark here.

The point should be obvious. Stauffer has been the same pitcher he has always been, just over twice as many innings as normal. In my mind, that means he has had a successful season (especially when you consider things like the fact that he has a better ERA than Chris Carpenter and Zack Greinke while posting a better WHIP than Matt Garza and Wandy Rodriguez). The timing of his recent struggles is horrible for those fighting for a fantasy championship, but in totality Stauffer has pitched pretty darn well this season.

Is Steve Cishek worth it for saves while not blowing up WHIP/ERA or is Jonny Venters a better options for cheap wins?
– @Chaka606

The Marlins’ closer, Leo Nunez, has decided to suck wind for the second straight season in the second half. Nunez has seen his 3.51 first half ERA jump to 6.38 (he’s allowed 11 ER in his last 10.2 innings), and his BAA go from .221 to .307 since the All-Star break. Oddly, he’s only walked three batters in 20 outings, but he’s been bit by the long ball allowing four homers. As a result he has three saves in his last 11 outings while he has also blown three chances. His last save was August 16th. Cishek has picked up two saves in his last four outings as he gains a foothold in the 9th, and on the year he has a 1.24 WHIP and 47 Ks in 45.1 innings. However, he too has hit a bit of speed bump of late allowing six hits, three walks and four runs in his last 4.1 innings.

Venters continues to be an astronomically effective setup man who picks up the odd save (five on the year). He’s also vultured six victories against one loss. However, it’s his ratios that really stand out. On the year, and we’re talking 77.2 innings, Venters has a 1.39 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, .160 BAA and 87 punchouts. That level of production just isn’t seen by anyone other than the elites in the game. To be quiet honest, his performance this year is superior to all but a handful of closers in the game – if that. He’s been flat out amazing.

All of that analysis misses the point. Wins are hard enough to predict for starting pitchers, in fact I would argue that no one can effectively predict them. As for wins from a reliever, you’re better off trying to guess how many times a day that everyone in the world sneezes. There is certainly no way to predict wins from a reliever, and you certainly shouldn’t add one trying to add to the win column for your team.

Secondly, the worry about blowing up your WHIP or ERA at this point of a season, if we are talking about relievers, is negligible at best. Let’s say your team has thrown 1,200 innings and it has allowed 450 runs leading to an ERA of 3.38. We can agree that the last month of work from Nunez is about as bad as it gets, right? So let’s add in 11 runs and 10.2 innings to the mix to give us 1,210 innings and 461 runs allowed. The result is a 3.43 ERA. I’m not saying that isn’t enough of a downturn to lose you a spot or two in your standings, but how often do relievers allow a run an inning over 10 innings? Not often is the correct answer, and with less than a month left in the regular season, it will be tough for most relievers to toss more than 10 innings the rest of the way.

The bottom line is that you needn’t worry too much about any reliever crashing your ratios at this point of the season.

Jeff Niemann or Doug Fister going forward?
– @MoonSetGallery

In 19 starts for the Rays this year Jeff Neimann has posted a 3.69 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. He’s also picked up a victory in five of his last seven outings. However, he’s started to allow a lot of homers, seven in his last seven outings, while his ERA is up to 4.01 in that stretch. That’s still a passable number of course, and his 3.03 K/BB ratio for the year says it isn’t all smoke and mirrors as he’s posting three year bests in K/9 (7.00) and BB/9 (2.31). His GB/FB ratio is also a career best at 1.27. All of that says that his current level of production could be sustainable.

Fister has been a solid pitcher in his big league career with a 3.69 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, but the prevailing wisdom was that his production would take a slight dip outside of Safeco which so heavily favors the pitcher. That assumption has been wrong as Fister has taken off since he joined the Tigers. One of the biggest reasons is that his run support, which was under two runs with the Mariners, is approaching 4.7 in his seven starts with the Tigers. It’s also helped that in his seven outings he’s allowed more than two earned runs only once leading to a 4-1 record, 2.64 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. He’s actually pitching like a new man with his new team (how appropriate). In addition to all of that just mentioned goodness, Fister has walked three batters in 44.1 innings. Three. That’s led to a BB/9 mark of 0.61. That mark was 1.97 in Seattle. He’s also struck out more batters with a 7.31 per nine mark compared to his 5.49 mark with the Mariners.

We may only be talking about a month plus of work, but Fister is performing at a near elite level since he joined the Tigers so ride that wave until his season hits the beach.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87.