2011 Pitching Review – Relievers

Relief pitching, by nature of the importance placed upon the role of closer (i.e. saves), is one of the hardest positions to predict with accuracy year after year. We always have guys come out of nowhere that no one even thought about selecting on draft day (Sergio Santos, Fernando Salas, Javy Guerra, Mark Melancon), and with relievers fantasy value tied so closely to a managers decision to use a certain hurler in the 9th inning, the position is a landmine that take a lot of careful navigating. How did I do in avoiding those explosive devices in 2011? Let’s see.

To see my 2011 rankings click on Top-50 Relief Pitchers.

HITS

Jonathan Axford (#6): It can be argued that he was the most effective closer in the NL as he racked up a league leading 46 saves (tied with Craig Kimbrel), while blowing only two save chances. Toss in a 1.95 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 86 Ks in 73.2 innings and you have yourself a dominating season.

Joel Hanrahan (#10): My crowning call of the position, Hanrahan had an ADP in the late 20′s or early 30′s when I wrote my initial piece. Every bit as effective as Axford, Hanrahan had 40 saves in 44 chances, posted career best ratios (1.83 ERA, 1.05 WHIP), held batters to a .221 average, and posted an impressive K/BB ratio of 3.82.

Jonny Venters (#36): He  was one of the 10 best relievers in baseball, though his fantasy worth wasn’t that high because he only had five saves. Still, he was amazingly effective with a 9.82 K/9, a 1.84 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP and a stupendous, off the charts amazing, 5.29 GB/FB ratio.

Kenley Jansen (#39): How historic was his 2011 effort? Check out the details in Around the Horn: October 6th, 2011.

MISSES

Joakim Soria (#8): The Royals kept saying he was fine, but his performance dictated otherwise. Soria posted a three year low with an 8.95 K/9 mark, he gave up more line drive than ever before (21 percent), and for the first time had a bating average against above .220 (he finished at .259). He also saw his ERA rise by nearly two runs (4.03), posted the worst WHIP of his career (1.28) and had a four year low in saves (28).

Matt Thornton (#13): He had an epically bad first two weeks of the season, and while he recovered late in the year, the damage was done and he was never given another chance to pitch in the 9th inning. He  posted solid numbers (3.32 ERA, 9.50 K/9, 3.17 BB/9) but it was far below expectations.

Jonathan Broxton (#14): His arm just wasn’t right all year, and he eventually had to shut things down after multiple starts and stops. In the end he had seven saves in just 12.2 innings of work, needed elbow surgery to remove “loose bodies,” and now faces an uphill battle to return to significance in 2012.

Brad Lidge (#16): He was supposed to be healthy in late April, and the club didn’t trust Ryan Madson at all. Well, Lidge’s injury lingered leading to only 19.1 innings pitched (1.40 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 1.77 K/BB) while Madson excelled as a closer for the first time (32 saves in 34 chances).

Ryan Franklin (#20): I did something I never do here – I went with role over skills. What did it get you if you made the same mistake, something I ALWAYS preach against? How about one save, an 8.46 ERA, 1.84 WHIP over 27.2 innings of work.

Craig Kimbrel (#23): I wasn’t sure if he would close 100 percent of the time for the Braves which is why I had him so low on the list. Shame on me. I broke down how amazing he was in 2011 in Around the Horn: October 6th, 2011.

Alexei Ogando (#49): That’s right, how quickly things can change. At the time the original piece was written on March 10th, 2011, Ogando was still in the mix to possibly close for the Rangers (they were still contemplating using Neftali Feliz as a starter). We all know what happened as Ogando was inserted into the starting rotation and had a strong season  for the Rangers (13-8, 3.51 ERA, 1.14 WHIP).

By Ray Flowers

2011 Pitching Review: Starters – Misses

In my last column I broke down my greatest “hits” of starting pitchers, those that I identified and suggested you add to your stable of hurlers for the 2011 season who succeeded. Today I’ll ding myself by pointing out the hurlers that failed to deliver based on my personal expectations.

For the “hits” see PART I.

NOTE: Please remember that while some of these “calls” seem obvious, they really weren’t back in March of 2011.

MISSES

Josh Johnson (#8): Shoulder woes limited Johnson to just nine starts and 60.1 innings in 2011. He was spectacular when on the hill with a 1.64 ERA and 0.98 WHIP, not to mention 56 Ks in 60.1 innings, but his future is cloudy as he simply cannot be counted on to take the hill every five games.

Roy Oswalt (#13): Back woes limited him to his worst season, possibly ever. He won only nine games against 10 loses, lasted just 139 innings (his lowest total since 2003), and saw his K/9 dip to 6.02 (the worst mark of his career). He wasn’t horrible with a 3.69 ERA and 1.34 WHIP, but he was drafted to be a strong #2 hurler, not a depth play.

Chad Billingsley (#18): It’s time to give up on him becoming an elite pitcher, but he should still be better than he was this season. Chad produced a five year low with 11 victories, a career worst 4.21 ERA, a 5-year worst in K/9 (7.28) and a 5-year high in BB/9 (4.02). Simply put, he wasn’t very good, but he’s still only 27 years old and did toss 188 innings, his fourth straight year hitting that mark.

Francisco Liriano (#23): He will never be the pitcher he was before he blew his arm out, so put that thought out of your head as he’s lost three mph off his fastball since his heyday. As a result, his K/9 fell a batter and a half from his career rate, down to 7.50 per nine, and he was simply dreadful at throwing strikes walking 5.02 batters per nine innings. That’s just shameful.

Ryan Dempster (#25): The good – he threw more than 200 innings with at least 170 K’s for a fourth straight season. The bad – his ERA was awful at 4.80 and his WHIP wasn’t much better at 1.45. A lot of that has to do with his horrible start to the year, though his 3.70 xFIP was actually right in line with his previous three seasons (3.69, 3.76 and 3.74). He wasn’t as bad as he appeared to be.

Ricky Nolasco (#29): I give up. The guy has tantalizing skills including 4-straight years with a K/BB ratio of at least 3.36, and his xFIP keeps saying that his ERA should be well below where it always is (5.06, 4.51 and 4.67 the last three years). I’m still gonna draft him late in 2012, but only at a point where I know he’ll give me value versus at a level that I hope he will be able to live up to.

Brett Anderson (#30): Couldn’t help this one as there was no way to predict that he would need Tommy John surgery in July. He ended the year 3-6 with a 4.00 ERA and 1.33 WHIP over 13 starts.

Jonathan Sanchez (#31): He still owns hellacious stuff, see his 9.06 K/9 mark, but he rarely seems to know where it is going (see his ghastly 5.86 BB/9 mark). It’s as simple as this; until he starts throwing strikes he’s simply not someone that you can trust, at all.

John Lackey (#42): Seems like everything that could go wrong with the Boston righty did in 2011. He won 12 games, his 9th straight season of double-digits, but he threw a nine year low of 160 innings. The Sox may not have been complaining though given his 6.41 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. Amazingly, his K/9 has gone down each of the last six years while his BB/9 has gone up each of the last four.

Ian Kennedy (#55): No one predicted this effort. I’ll tip my hat to the guy as he went 21-4 with a 2.88 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 198 Ks. I don’t think he has a chance in hell of repeating that effort, but he was dynamite in 2011.

Jake Peavy (#56): I thought putting him in the second half of the top-100 was being fair. Turns out, it wasn’t. Peavy only lasted 111.2 innings, posted an abysmal 4.92 ERA, and he has serious questions about whether or not he will ever be able to even take the ball 30 times a year again.

Michael Pineda (#95): Here is my quote, and my reasoning as to why he was so low in my original rankings. “I’d be surprised if he was up before June, but he will be a strikeout force when the Mariners finally turn to him.” I totally missed the time line which is why my ranking of him was so off.

By Ray Flowers

2011 Pitching Review: Starters – Hits

Pitching is the variable that we all struggle with from season to season. Predicting any players future performance based on the past is always filled with uncertainty, and only good detective work can get us close to predicting something that we really can’t predict with 100 percent accuracy. That quest for prediction perfection is even more difficult when it comes to pitchers than it is with hitters. That’s just the nature of the beast. Therefore, don’t be too hard on anyone who makes a mistake or two along the way – it’s just not that easy to do.

Back in March I posted my Top-100 Starting Pitchers article. In PART I I’ll discuss some of my “hits” while saving my “misses” for Part II.

NOTE: Please remember that while some of these “calls” seem obvious, they really weren’t back in March of 2011.

HITS

Clayton Kershaw (#7): The NL’s Triple Crown winner tied Ian Kennedy for the league lead with 21 victories, posted a major league best 2.28 ERA, and whiffed 248 batters, just two behind Justin Verlander for the major league lead. He was everything we all knew he could be, an at just 23 years old, it’s scary to think that Kershaw could repeat this effort for years to come.

James Shields (#24): I took a lot of heat for putting Shields in my top-25 after he went 13-15 with a 5.18 ERA for the Rays in 2010. Consider me vindicated. Shields pitched more innings (249.1) at greater effect than he had at any point in his career. Shields led baseball with 11 complete games (only Roy Halladay had more than six, he finished with eight), and his four shutouts tied Derek Holland for the AL lead. Shields also finished third in the AL in ERA (2.82) and strikeouts (225) and was fifth in WHIP (1.04). Spectacular.

Josh Beckett (#26): I wrote all about why Beckett would rebound in Is Josh Beckett Finished? Did you read the article and buy into what I was selling?

Clay Buchholz (#52): I warned everyone to be careful with Clay who was being over drafted because he was a Red Sox and because he posted a sterling 2.33 ERA in 2010. His ERA was still solid at 3.48 and his WHIP of 1.29 wasn’t bad at all, it just wasn’t good enough considering where he was drafted by some (not to mention that injuries limited him to just 82.2 innings).

Scott Baker (#53): He was everything I said he would be this year for the Twins. Baker had a career best 8.22 K/9 mark which led to a career best tying 3.88 K/BB ratio, and some sterling ratios (3.14 ERA and 1.17 WHIP). Unfortunately the injury bug struck once again as he was limited to just 23 appearances, 21 starts, leading to only 134.2 innings.

Jordan Zimmerman (#54): The skills were on full display this year with only the Nationals innings pitched limit, he was coming back from Tommy John surgery, to slow him down. Jordan had a 3.18 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and superb 4.00 K/BB ratio because he simply refused to issue a free pass. He’s good enough to have a whole bunch of efforts like this one.

Bud Norris (#72): He made 30 starts for the first time in his career (31 actually), and posted 176 Ks in the process. His WHIP also came down to 1.33 as he cut a full batter off his walk rate getting it down to nearly the league average at 3.39. I’m considering him a “hit” even though he won just six games because his ERA went down a run, his BB/9 down 1.12, his WHIP was down 0.15 and his innings went up 33.2 from 2010.

Justin Masterson (#76): This guy owns a nice combo of strikeout/ground ball stuff, the ideal makeup for a starting pitcher. He threw a career best 216 innings leading to a career-high 12 victories, and even though his K/9 fell to a career worst 6.58 causing some trepidation, he cut nearly a batter off his walk rate leading to his first K/BB ratio better than two at 2.43. He also keep the grounders coming, 55.1 percent of batted balls, and should be in line for a long and successful career.

Tim Stauffer (#78), Aaron Harang (#82): You can find my season ending review of both of these guys in Pitcher Profiles: 2011 Review.

By Ray Flowers

2011 Positional Review – Outfield

You remember back to March when I gave away all my position player rankings for free, right? For those of you who want to revisit my greatest hits, here’s where you would go to get all my rankings for hitters – 2011: BBGuys Hitter Capsules.

I’ll review my top-10 predictions at each position as well as point out my biggest “hit” outside of the top-10 and my biggest “bust.”

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

SECOND BASE

THIRD BASE

SHORTSTOP

2011 OUTFIELD Top-20
1 Ryan Braun
2 Carl Crawford
3 Matt Holliday
4 Carlos Gonzalez
5 Nelson Cruz
6 Josh Hamilton
7 Matt Kemp
8 Andrew McCutchen
9 Shin-Soo Choo
10 Jason Heyward
11 Alex Rios
12 Justin Upton
13 Andre Ethier
14 Hunter Pence
15 B.J. Upton
16 Ichiro Suzuki
17 Jayson Werth
18 Jay Bruce
19 Shane Victorino
20 Chris Young

Braun was amazing in 2011. You can read all about that in Braun: Best of the Bunch.

Crawford was a disaster in 2011. You can read all about that in Carl Crawford: Total Failure.

Holliday had all kinds of issue this year (appendicitis, a quad, a finger, a bug in his ear), and in the end it hindered his performance. Holliday still was productive hitting .296 with a .912 OPS, and his pace over 550 at-bats would have equated to 27 homers, 92 RBI and 102 runs scored. Too bad he appeared in just 124 games.

Gonzalez was injured multiple times, but don’t let that fool you, he still had a fine fantasy season (.295-26-92-92-20 in 481 ABs) even if it failed to live up to his unrepeatable 2010 effort (.336-34-117-11-26 in 587 ABs). There are few better five category options in the game.

Cruz has been killing it in the playoffs, a sure sign that if he could ever stay healthy he’d produce a truly special season. Cruz had 29 homers and 87 RBI during the year, but with 475 at-bats he failed yet again to stay healthy long enough to post his first 500 at-bat season.

Hamilton was injured, again (what a shock), as he appeared in just 121 games. However, whenever he was on the field he was darn productive as he hit .298 with 25 homers, 94 RBI, 80 runs scored and eight steals.

Kemp was the best player in fantasy baseball in 2011. Kemp finished one homer short of going 40/40 as he hit .324 with 126 RBI and 115 runs scored. Kemp led the NL in homers and RBI, and finished just .013 points behind Jose Reyes to fall just short of the Triple Crown.

McCutchen was everything that was advertised for the Pirates going 20/20 (23 homers, 23 steals), scoring 87 runs and knocking in a career best 89. His average dipped from the .280s to just .259, but that number figures to rise in 2012.

Choo was injured multiple times resulting in a season of just 85 games. After hitting .300 the last two years, his .259 average was a major disappointment, and his .344 OBP was a career worst as well. He’s still got the skills to be a top-20 outfielder, but he’ll need health to prove it.

Heyward fell so far this season (.227-14-42-50-9), that even people in keeper leagues are worried about his long term value. Immensely talented, no so quiet whispers pen him as “soft.” After an impressive rookie season and a second year flop, there may be no one in the game with more to prove.

Rios was an abject failure hitting .227 with 13 homers, 44 RBI, 64 runs scored and 11 steals. How bad were things? His .265 OBP was .010 points below his career batting average. Too talented to do this again, his BABIP (.237 versus a career .306 mark) should rebound next season, so don’t overlook him on draft day 2012.

Upton had another outstanding season for the D’backs. He posted his second 20/20 season with a career best 31 homers and 21 steals, and he also scored a career-high 105 runs. Throw in that .289 average and .898 OPS and we have an excellent all-around performer who just might be able to take his game up another notch.

Ethier hit .292 with a .368 OBP, right on his career averages (.291 and .364). Unfortunately, he hit a meager 11 homers, knocked in only 62 runs and scored just 67 times. There’s no way of sugarcoating what was a poor season made even worse by how well it started out (he hit .380 over his first 28 games).

Pence ended the year with the Phillies after getting out of the exile that was playing for the Astros. All told he had yet another, well, Pence like season resulting in 22 homers, 97 RBI, 84 runs, eight steals an a .314 average. The average an RBI marks were career bests for the ultra consistent performer.

Upton had another up and down effort for the Rays as he hit a mere .243 with a third straight season of 150+ Ks. However, he also was one homer and one RBI off his career bests (he hit 23 bombs with 81 RBIs), scored 82 runs and swiped 36 bases. He was one of the more productive outfielders in baseball if you could look past the batting average.

Suzuki finally lost it, and by “it” I don’t mean his virginity, I mean his streak of hitting .300 with 200 hits as he batted .272 with 184 hits to end his 10-year run. He still offered production with 80 runs and 40 steals, but given the cost it took to acquire him on draft day he was a substantial disappointment.

Werth was always going to lose some of his production moving from a great park with a great lineup in Philly, but he really stunk it up in certain respects in 2011. It’s fair to say he had some value, he was only one steal short of a 20/20 effort, but he hit .232, posted a 7-year low in OBP (.330) and only drove in 58 runs after averaging 92 the previous two seasons.

Bruce hit an impressive 32 homers, fell just three RBI short of his first 100 RBI campaign, and scored a career best 84 runs. Still, he was wildly inconsistent driving his owners mad (.342-12-33 in May, .241-11-40 over his last 69 games).

Victorino just goes out and gets it done year after year. He hit .279, spot on his career mark, and for the fourth straight year scored at least 84 runs (he had 95) while he hit 17 homers (one off his career best), and stole 19 bags (though that was a 5-year low).

Young hit an awful .236 including a stupefyingly low .193 in the second half, but the guy still did his best Mike Cameron impersonation with 20 homers, 71 RBI, 89 runs scored and 22 steals.

Busts: Carl Crawford #2, Shin-Soo Choo #9, Jason Heyward #10, Alex Rios #11, Andre Ethier #13, Ichiro Suzuki #16, Jayson Werth #17

There were so many busts in the outfield, I’m not even gonna list any “hits.”

By Ray Flowers

2011 Positional Review – Shortstop

You remember back to March when I gave away all my position player rankings for free, right? For those of you who want to revisit my greatest hits, here’s where you would go to get all my rankings for hitters – 2011: BBGuys Hitter Capsules.

I’m nothing if not accountable, so I’ll review my top-10 predictions at each position as well as point out my biggest “hit” outside of the top-10 and my biggest “bust.”

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

SECOND BASE

THIRD BASE

2011 SHORTSTOP Top-10
1 Hanley Ramirez
2 Troy Tulowitzki
3 Jimmy Rollins
4 Jose Reyes
5 Derek Jeter
6 Alexei Ramirez
7 Stephen Drew
8 Elvis Andrus
9 Yunel Escobar
10 Rafael Furcal

Ramirez had a four year run going of hitting at least .300 with 21 homers, 67 RBI, 92 runs and 27 steals. He didn’t reach a single one of those numbers in 2011 (.243-10-45-55-20). He eventually had surgery on his injured shoulder, and the hope is that he will be ready for the start of the 2012 season.

Tulowitzki hit 30 homers and powered a career best 105 runners across the plate as he hit .302 and posted a third straight OPS of over .900 at .916. However, he also scored a three year low with 81 runs, and he failed to record double-digit steals for the first time in three years with nine.

Rollins rebounded from an injury induced slump in 2010, but the numbers were still far from the elite totals that he had posted in the past (.268-16-63-87-30). At 32 years old he can still be a mighty productive player, but keep your expectations in check when drafting him in 2012.

Reyes wants someone to show him the money. He went out and hit .337, the best mark in the NL, and he scored 101 runs for the Metropolitans. That run scored mark was impressive given that he appeared in only 126 games, but he stole “only” 39 bags, a disappointing total for a guy who stole at least 56 bases each year from 2005-2008.

Jeter hit six homers, the first time he ever failed to go deep 10 times, and he also scored a career worst 84 runs. On the positive tip he produced 61 RBI, an 8th straight year of at least that number, an a late run at the dish resulted in him hitting .297 on the year.

Ramirez always seems to be slumping, but in the end there are few more productive, and consistent, performers at the position. For the fourth time in four years he hit 15 homers with 68 RBI, and he scored 81 runs, swiped seven bags, and hit a passable .269.

Drew fractured his right ankle and as a result suited up for just 86 games. He was productive when on the field with five homers, 45 RBI and 44 runs scored, but he simply didn’t play enough to be worthy of much of anything this season.

Andrus slightly improved his average up to .279, the same trick he pulled off with his OBP of .347 (both three year bests). Andrus also posted 3-years bests in runs (96), hits (164), doubles (27), RBI (60) and steals (37).

Escobar had a lost 2010 season causing many to forget, or at least overlook, him on draft day. I wasn’t one of those who walked by without looking. Escobar ended up producing a season that fell right in line with his 2008-09 efforts as he hit .290 with 11 homers, 48 RBI, 77 runs scored an a .782 OPS for the Blue Jays.

Furcal had yet another injury filled an unproductive season split between the Dodgers and the Cardinals hitting just .231 with eight homers, 28 RBI, 44 runs and nine steals in just 87 games. Per game he was  productive in the counting categories, but for a second straight year the 34 year old Furcal failed to appear in 100 games.

Hit: Yunel Escobar #9

Bust: Rafael; Furcal #10
It’s too easy to list Hanley Ramirez, and since we all know how pathetic he was, it doesn’t serve much purpose to blast him here again. We all know he was the biggest bust in baseball.

By Ray Flowers

2011 Positional Review – Third Base

You remember back to March when I gave away all my position player rankings for free, right? For those of you who want to revisit my greatest hits, here’s where you would go to get all my rankings for hitters – 2011: BBGuys Hitter Capsules.

I’m nothing if not accountable, so I’ll review my top-10 predictions at each position as well as point out my biggest “hit” outside of the top-10 and my biggest “bust.”

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

SECOND BASE

2011 THIRD BASE Top-10

1 Evan Longoria
2 David Wright
3 Alex Rodriguez
4 Ryan Zimmerman
5 Aramis Ramirez
6 Mark Reynolds
7 Michael Young
8 Adrian Beltre
9 Pedro Alvarez
10 Casey McGehee

Longoria hit a terrible .244, and his steal total fell by 12 down to three, but he still powered 31 homers and drove in 99 runs thanks to a furious second half finish (20 homers and 57 RBI in 72 games). He’s plenty young enough (26) to put it all together and run off some massive seasons.

Wright had hit at least 25 homers with 100 RBI and 85 runs scored in five of the last six seasons, so his 14 homers, 61 RBI and 60 runs were obviously a massive disappointment. Thrown in a career worst .255 average, from a guy who has hit .300 in his career, and you were rightly ticked off if he was on your squad.

Rodriguez lost his record streak of 30-100 seasons at 13 as he appeared in only 99 games which limited him to 16 homers and 62 RBI. In the end it was the worst season of his career as he also scored a career worst 67 runs with another career worst in his OPS (.823).

Zimmerman appeared in only 101 games limiting him to a .289-12-49-52 line, but if we give him 550 at-bats at that pace he would have hit .289-17-68-72 which wouldn’t have been too awful given all his starts and stops. He needs to stay healthy.

Ramirez hit two homers in April and May. Two. He then blasted 17 the next two months, hit .377 in August, an in the end produced yet another terrific season for the Cubs (.306-26-93-80-1). The cream almost always rises to the top.

Reynolds always gets dogged for the terrible average (.221) and all the strikeouts (196), but he should get some credit to. He was second at the position with 37 homers (Jose Bautista had 43), and he was one of only four third baseman with 25 homers, 80 RBI and 80 runs scored and one of three with 30-80-80 (Bautista and Beltre).

Young only played 40 games at third, but at the dish he was his normal fantastic self. Young hit .338, the best mark of his career, and also posted a career best 106 RBI. Toss in 88 runs scored and he gave his owners exactly what they were hoping for and a little bit more.

Beltre was injured and appeared in only 124 games, but he still powered 32 homers, knocked in 105 and his a strong .296. He was everything the Rangers hoped he would be when they signed him.

Alvarez was an abject failure. He appeared in 74 games and, amazingly for a guy who was the second overall selection in 2008, he hit .191 with four homers in 235 at-bats. To think, many people chose him over Mark Reynolds.

McGehee wasn’t a choice I loved. In fact, I warned in The Guide that he was the only third sacker who had 85 RBI who failed to score 75 runs in 2010, and I also pointed out how his minor league track record didn’t match his offensive fireworks with the Brewers. I should have gone with my gut and ranked Pablo Sandoval, who I had 11th, ahead of McGehee.

Hit: Jhonny Peralta #14
Obviously he was more useful as a shortstop eligible player, but with all the injuries at third Peralta could have played there all year and done very well. Peralta hit 21 homers, knocked in 86 runs, scored 68 times and hit a career best .299. All-around it was a fine year, and in context of all the injuries at third, it was a top-10 effort.

Bust: Everyone
DL stints seemed a prerequisite at third this year. Here are the games played totals of some of the preseason elite: Longoria (133), Wright (102), Arod (99), Zimmerman (101) and Sandoval (117).

By Ray Flowers

2011 Positional Review – Second Base

You remember back to March when I gave away all my position player rankings for free, right? For those of you who want to revisit my greatest hits, here’s where you would go to get all my rankings for hitters – 2011: BBGuys Hitter Capsules.

I’m nothing if not accountable, so I’ll review my top-10 predictions at each position as well as point out my biggest “hit” outside of the top-10 and my biggest “bust.”

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

2011 SECOND BASE Top-10

1 Robinson Cano
2 Dustin Pedroia
3 Brandon Phillips
4 Dan Uggla
5 Chase Utley
6 Ian Kinsler
7 Rickie Weeks
8 Howie Kendrick
9 Aaron Hill
10 Martin Prado

Cano hit .302, third at the position, had 28 homers, third at the position, knocked in 118 runs, first at the position, and scored 104 runs, second at the position. Yeah, he lived up to the preseason hype.

Pedroia was phenomenal for the Red Sox hitting .307 with 21 homers, 91 RBI, 102 runs and 26 stolen bases. That effort was just the sixth, ever, for a second baseman (minimum .300-20-90-100-25).

Phillips hit .300 for the first time, scored 94 runs, blasted 18 homers and knocked in 82 runs. It was a great season even if he stole just 14 bases, his lowest total since joining the Reds in 2006.

Uggla was horrible, then electric in his first season with the Braves. Add it all up and he hit a career worst .233. However, he also scored 88 runs, hit a career best 36 homers, and knocked in 82 runs. That gave him 6-straight seasons of at least 27 homers, 82 RBI and 84 runs scored. Only one other second baseman in history has ever had six such seasons (Jeff Kent), and Uggla has done it 6-years in a row – every year he has been in the league (no other second sacker has done it more than 2-straight years).

Utley had a decent season for a late round draft pick asked to full the middle infield spot (.259-11-44-54-14), but that knee injury just killed his season, and he’s now had back-to-back seasons that are nowhere near his established level of excellence (in 2010 he went .275-16-65-75-13).

Kinsler rebounded from a down 2010 to post his second 30/30 effort in three years. He hit only .255, but he powered a career-high 32 homers and scored 121 runs, another career best.

Weeks, against my better judgment really, came in seventh at the position at the start of the year. As I pointed out numerous times, Weeks had three season of less than 100 games, and three over 100 games coming into the year. He kind of split the difference appearing in 118 games, but the lack of times on the field limited his contributions to being a really good season, but not a great one (.269-20-49-77-9).

Kendrick saved me from a lot of flack. I ranked him pretty high this spring, and everyone called me out for it. In the end, he produced one of the better 5×5 lines at the position going .285-18-63-86-14. Do you know how many second base eligible players hit .285 with 18 homers, 63 RBI, 86 runs and 14 steals? The answer is three – Pedroia, Phillips and Kendrick.

Hill was a massive disappointment yet again, and I’m really at a loss as to why. He hit .246 with eight homers, 61 RBI, and 61 runs scored. Remember, this is a guy who averaged 31 homers a season in 2009-10. He somewhat saved his season by swiping 21 bases, nearly halfway to his career mark of 44 thefts.

Prado was a disaster in 2011. He hit 13 homers with 57 RBI which was about as expected, but he scored only 66 runs and even worse, after hitting .307 in back-to-back seasons, batted just .260. You can, at least in part, blame his BABIP which was .266, well below his career rate of .315 (his line drive rate was also a career worst at 14.6 percent, this after posting at least a 19.8 percent mark from 2008-2010).

Hit: Howie Kendrick #8
Bust: Hill #9

By Ray Flowers

2011 Positional Review – First Base

You remember back to March when I gave away all my position player rankings for free, right? For those of you who want to revisit my greatest hits, here’s where you would go to get all my rankings for hitters – 2011: BBGuys Hitter Capsules.

I’m nothing if not accountable, so I’ll review my top-10 predictions at each position as well as point out my biggest “hit” outside of the top-10 and my biggest “bust.” This should be fun.

CATCHERS

2011 FIRST BASE Top-10
1 Albert Pujols
2 Joey Votto
3 Mark Teixeira
4 Miguel Cabrera
5 Prince Fielder
6 Adrian Gonzalez
7 Kevin Youkilis
8 Adam Dunn
9 Ryan Howard
10 Paul Konerko

Pujols‘ run at history, which I wrote about in On the Cusp, fell just short as he ended the year with a .299 batting average, 37 homers, 99 RBI and 105 runs scored. An impressive season for a mortal, but a disappointing effort for Pujols.

Votto wasn’t as good as he was during his MVP effort but it was pretty damn close. He posted a .324-37-113-106-16 line in 2010 and followed it up with .309-29-103-101-8 this season.

Teixeira blasted 39 homers and drove in 111 runs for the Yankees giving them the power they expected.   Unfortunately he scored “only” 90 runs, and for the second straight season he hit under .260 as he limped home to a career worst .248 mark.

Cabrera was as he always is, fantastic. I admit it, my concerns over his drinking issues were apparently unfounded. I touched on that in Braun: Best of the Bunch.

Fielder was second in the NL in homers (38), RBI (120) and OBP (.415) while he was third in OPS (.994). Someone is going to get awfully rich this offseason.

Gonzalez proved me half right, and half wrong. You can learn more by reading Player Profiles: 2011 Review.

Youkilis was limited all year by injury and his final line looks pretty bad (.258-17-80-68-3). Still, he was on pace to hit more than 20 homers with 100 RBI while his OBP was .373, not bad for a down season. He should be at full health next season.

Dunn fell off more than virtually any player in recent memory (Andruw Jones was close a few years back). Dunn was unquestionably the biggest failure in the game in 2011 as he hit .159 with 11 homers over 415 at-bats. I literally felt a sickness in my stomach well up writing that sentence.

Howard hit his 33 homers and had 116 RBI, but he also hit a mere .253 and scored just 81 runs. He could easily miss the start of the 2012 season as well since he ruptured his Achilles tendon on the final play of the season for the Phillies.

Konerko was strong yet again hitting .300 with 31 homers and 105 RBI. He has no speed, it’s almost surprising that he stole a base, and despite playing 149 games with a .388 OBP he scored only 69 runs for the White Sox.

Hit: Freddie Freeman #25
Freeman took a while to get going, if we remove his .225 April he hit .293 the rest of the way, an in the end he batted .282 with 21 homers and 76 RBI for the Braves. Hey, it’s first base where everyone can hit. It was hard to find a guy who really stood out past the top-15.

Bust: Dunn
U-n-b-e-l-i-e-v-a-b-l-e.

By Ray Flowers

2011 Positional Review – Catchers

You remember back to March when I gave away all my position player rankings for free, right? For those of you who want to revisit my greatest hits, here’s where you would go to get all my rankings for hitters – 2011: BBGuys Hitter Capsules.

I’m nothing if not accountable, so I’ll review my top-10 predictions at each position as well as point out my biggest “hit” outside of the top-10 and my biggest “bust.” This should be fun.

Today, I’ll start with the catchers position.

2011 CATCHER Top-10
1 Joe Mauer
2 Victor Martinez
3 Brian McCann
4 Buster Posey
5 Geovany Soto
6 Carlos Santana
7 Mike Napoli
8 Matt Wieters
9 Miguel Montero
10 Kurt Suzuki

Mauer was injured from start to finish and he ended up with a .287 average, three homers and 30 RBI in 296 at-bats. It was a dismal season for a man who owns a career .323 average and a Hall of Fame bat.

V-Mart showed an astonishing lack of power with only 12 home runs, but he knocked in 103 runs while hitting .330 in what was a rather remarkable season.

McCann failed to hit .275 for the second straight year (he hit .270), and he also posted a 6-year low in RBI with 71. Still, he hit 24 homers and was the only catchers in the NL to hit more than 18 homers.

Posey‘s year ended after just 162 at-bats when he was plowed over at the plate trashing his leg. He is back to catching bullpens already and the Giants hope he will be at 100 percent by spring training next year.

Soto would have been my bust of the year if not for the failings of Mauer. Soto did hit 17 homers and knock in 54 runs, but he batted .228 while his OBP of .310 was .038 points below his career mark.

Santana was the best catcher in the AL not named Martinez. Santana, in his first full season in the bigs, was the only catcher in baseball with 20 homers, 70 RBI and 70 runs scores (27, 79 and 84). The 84 runs led the position.

Napoli was a superstar this season, and I wrote all about his efforts in Player Profile: Mike Napoli.

Wieters was one of three catcher eligible players to hit 20 homers with 65 RBI and 70 runs scored (he had 22, 68 and 72). Matt killed it in the second half hitting 14 homers with a .840 OPS in 61 games.

Montero was a rock all year for the D’backs. After hitting .294-16-59 in 2009, he was injured in 2010 and limited to 85 games. He bounced back this year with the best effort of his career (.282-18-86-65).

Suzuki was my #10 catcher because of one main reason – consistency. He did appear in 130 games for a fourth straight year, and his total of 14 homers was an exact match for his 2009-10 average, but his average fell to a career worst (.237) while he lost 37 RBI from 2010 (71) and 44 from 2009 (88).

Hit: Chris Iannetta #14
The Rockies have still never given him 350 at-bats in a season, but with 345 this year he blasted 14 homers, knocked in 55 runs and scored 51 times. Only 11 catchers in the game went 14-50-50, and only three went 14-50-50 with a .370 OBP (the others were Alex Avila and Napoli). He may have hit only .238, but he walked 70 times leading to that impressive .370 OBP.

Bust: Joe Mauer #1
What more needs to be said? He stunk.

By Ray Flowers

Carl Crawford: Total Failure

Yesterday in Braun Best of the Bunch, I bragged about how smart I was in suggesting taking Braun at the top of the first round in 2011. Today, I’ll throw the proverbial bucket of cold water all over myself for my other “lock” this year – Carl Crawford.

Back in January I suggested taking Carl Crawford over Troy Tulowitzki in Pick Your Poison as I wrote a whole piece defending myself for making just that decision in the FSTA Experts Draft in Las Vegas (amazingly, I still won that experts league even with CC as my first round pick). How could I have been so horribly wrong when it came to Crawford in 2011? Let’s investigate.

Here are the main points that I laid out to support the selection of Crawford back in January.

(1) Crawford is as consistent as any performer in the game.
From 2004-2010, Crawford was a top-13 performer in six of seven seasons. The only time he failed to live up to that lofty level was in 2008 when he played only 109 games due to injury. He was injured in 2011 as well, though he still appeared in 130 games. However, he failed miserably at the plate with a career worst 65 runs scored, his 56 RBI was his lowest total since 2004, and his 18 steals were a career worst (he’d been under 45 in each of his last seven healthy seasons). In the end he wasn’t a top-13 player. He wasn’t a top-13 outfielder. Hell, we wasn’t even in the top-213 fantasy performers in the game. He was an abject failure.

(2) Crawford will be a part of an excellent offense in Boston.
The Red Sox were second in the AL with a .280 batting average and third with 203 homers, and first in runs scored (875) and RBI (842). The club also led the AL with a .349 PBP and a .461 SLG.

(3) Speed kills.
As I mentioned above, Crawford barely produced 40% of his normal total in steals, a shocking fall.

(4) Track record.
As much as I was leaning on the impeccable production history of Crawford, I was also looking at the less than terrific health record of Tulowitzki.

So what the hell went wrong with Crawford? I could say he let the money get to him, or perhaps the pressure of playing in Boston where the love of baseball is palpable in the air played a part, and we can always lean on injury as well. But the fact is he just stunk. The speed evaporated. His walk rate was a six year low. His K-rate was a career worst. His BABIP was .299, well below his career .328 mark. For goodness sakes, Crawford’s OBP was .289. His career batting average is .293.

As right as I was about Braun, I was equally as wrong about Crawford. However, I wouldn’t be at all shocked if Crawford was a major bargain next year since he’s going to be drafted much later than he should be because of his down 2011 effort. Still, he’s gonna be part of a good offense, in a good park for hitters, and he’ll be just 31 years old next season. I’ll be in his corner next season yet again, even though his 2011 effort was an unmitigated disaster.

By Ray Flowers