Top-100 Starting Pitchers

Earlier this week I released the 2011 Pitcher Capsules in a wonderful collaborative effort with PaulSporer.com. Unlike hitters where I broke down everything you need to know in my 2011 Hitter Capsules, I didn’t have any input in terms of pitchers in the above linked guide. Therefore, I thought I would share with you my personal rankings for starting pitchers.

Pitchers in bold are hurlers I would target. I’ll also give some general thoughts at the end of the rankings.

TOP-100 STARTERS

1 Roy Halladay
2 Felix Hernandez
3 Tim Lincecum
4 CC Sabathia
5 Cliff Lee
6 Jon Lester
7 Clayton Kershaw
8 Josh Johnson
9 Justin Verlander
10 Dan Haren
11 Cole Hamels
12 Jered Weaver
13 Roy Oswalt
14 Tommy Hanson
15 Mat Latos
16 Ubaldo Jimenez
17 Yovani Gallardo
18 Chad Billingsley
19 Max Scherzer
20 David Price
21 Wandy Rodriguez
22 Zack Greinke
23 Francisco Liriano
24 James Shields
25 Ryan Dempster
26 Josh Beckett
27 Matt Cain
28 Chris Carpenter
29 Ricky Nolasco
30 Brett Anderson
31 Jonathan Sanchez
32 Ricky Romero
33 Brandon Morrow
34 Ted Lilly
35 Shaun Marcum
36 Matt Garza
37 C.J. Wilson
38 Colby Lewis
39 John Danks
40 Hiroki Kuroda
41 Tim Hudson
42 John Lackey
43 Johnny Cueto
44 Phil Hughes
45 Daniel Hudson
46 Madison Bumgarner
47 Gavin Floyd
48 Edinson Volquez
49 Brett Myers
50 Trevor Cahill
51 Jaime Garcia
52 Clay Buchholz
53 Scott Baker
54 Jordan Zimmerman
55 Ian Kennedy
56 Jake Peavy
57 Brian Matusz
58 Jonathan Niese
59 James McDonald
60 Ervin Santana
61 Gio Gonzalez
62 Carlos Zambrano
63 Jhouyls Chacin
64 Jeremy Hellickson
65 Clayton Richard
66 Jorge De La Rosa
67 Jair Jurrjens
68 Carl Pavano
69 A.J. Burnett
70 Edwin Jackson
71 Javier Vazquez
72 Bud Norris
73 Brett Cecil
74 Mike Pelfrey
75 Fausto Carmona
76 Justin Masterson
77 Anibal Sanchez
78 Tim Stauffer
79 Jake Westbrook
80 Travis Wood
81 Bronson Arroyo
82 Aaron Harang
83 Jeff Neimann
84 J.A. Happ
85 Wade Davis
86 Dallas Braden
87 Mark Buehrle
88 Randy Wolf
89 Randy Wells
90 Homer Bailey
91 Joe Blanton
92 Barry Zito
93 Kyle Drabek
94 Rick Porcello
95 Michael Peneda
96 Daisuke Matsuzaka
97 Carl Pavano
98 R.A. Dickey
99 Mike Minor
100 Derek Lowe

* I see a lot of talent in the 25 to 40 range on this list which leads me to think that you don’t have to reach for starting pitching this year. Wait, I say that all the time. Trust me, if you go into a standard mixed league with a staff of Beckett, Nolasco, Anderson and Lilly – your going to have a darn solid pitching staff.

* I have Clay Buchholz at #52, and I know many will disagree with that. I see a guy who had an ERA of 2.33 last year though he likely should have had a mark at least a run higher. He gets grounders at a nice clip, but he doesn’t strike many out, walks batters at the big league average, and was exceedingly lucky with both his LOB% (79.0) and his HR/9 mark (0.47). When those numbers normalize, and they will, I’d be be shocked if his ERA was below 3.70.

* Gio Gonzalez at #61? Though successful last season his K/9, while still strong at 7.67, was a about batter below his career rate. He also walked more than four batters per nine, and that was a three year best. Like Buchholz, he also has little chance of keeping his ERA within a run of his mark from last season (3.23) given his LOB% (78.1) and HR/9 mark (0.67).

* The 60′s are the land of the young (Jhouyls Chacin, Jeremy Hellickson) and the old (Carl Pavano, A.J. Burnett).

* I’d take a shot on the potential upside dominance of Bud Norris (72) over the steady but boring Bronson Arroyo (77), Derek Lowe (78) and Jake Westbrook (79).

* Tim Stauffer (78) – All you need to know about this righty can be found in 2011 Player Profile: Tim Stauffer.

* The 80′s are populated with veterans you know but might overlook. Mark Buehrle (81) has issues striking out batters, but he throws 200 innings, wins in the double-digits, and rarely kills your ratios. Aaron Harang (82) was actually a lot better than you think the past three years despite outwardly looking lost (7.40 K/9, 2.88 K/BB). If healthy, Petco could be a huge boost for him.

* The 90′s have tons of unproven talent.

Homer Bailey (93) – See Which Pitchers Should I Target?

Kyle Drabek (94) – Likely to open the year in the Blue Jays rotation. He has an advanced understanding of pitching.

Michael Pineda (95) – I’d be surprised if he was up before June, but he will be a strikeout force when the Mariners finally turn to him.

Mike Minor (99) – Battling Brandon Beachy for the 5th spot in the Braves’ rotation. Minor wore down at the end of last season, but he has the stuff to be a top of the rotation arm.

By Ray Flowers

2011 Capsules: Starting Pitchers

Have I got a treat for you today.

No more emailing me and waiting for me to shoot you back an email between my random dates, wild drinking binges, and time spent with the neighbors’ wife (if you don’t get that “in” joke make sure to tune in to my daily radio show on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio, 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday).

Today I’ve got something special for all of you.

If you’ve been coming by the site you know that I’ve been giving away hitter capsules for all the positions on the diamond. At this point all the positions have been released – thankfully – as my finger is awfully tired from clicking on “attach” and “send.” Honestly, the response has been tremendous, and I thank you all from the bottom of my heart. If you missed any portion of the capsules you are in luck. All you have to do is to click on the following link to get access to my position by position capsules for hitters.

2011 HITTER CAPSULES

But that’s only part of the good news today, here’s the really exciting part.

I’m also releasing, for FREE, a 75,000 word file on Starting Pitchers.

I can’t take credit for the work, I didn’t write a single word of it, but I’ve been fortunate enough to set up a partnership with Paul Sporer of paulsporer.com. Here is what the deal is all about.

(1) Paul put together a massive file on starting pitching. More than just pitching capsules, there are also a handful of articles in the Guide. Here are the titles:

Throwing Strikes, Pitching Outliers, Mining for Hidden Gems, Top-25 Under 25, Keeper Contracts for SPs and Drafting Pitchers Early.

(2) In addition to Paul’s great work, the Guide also includes work from the following esteemed writers:

Jason Collette of Baseball Prospectus, Rotowire and Dock of the Rays.

John Halpin of FoxSports.

Tim Heaney of KFFL.

Zack Sanders of Fangraphs and Rotohardball.

Mike Siano of MLB.com

Wow is right.

Two things I would ask you all to do before you download the Starting Pitcher Guide.

Make sure you visit paulsporer.com. On the homepage at the top right there is a link to DONATE for your appreciation of Paul’s great work on starting pitchers. Every little bit helps.

Second, Paul is also giving away Tim Lincecum and Justin Verlander jersey’s. If you donate, you are automatically entered into the raffle. For more on this potential windfall visit the Jersey Donation Page.

With that, let me present the 2011 – STARTING PITCHER GUIDE

Enjoy.

PS If you want to donate to me, and who wouldn’t, you can always drop me a line at fantasyfandom@yahoo.com. The “donate” tab I mentioned above is only for Paul and his excellent work on pitchers.

By Ray Flowers

2011 Player Capsules: Outfielders

Yep, I’m crazy. I’m giving away the house for free, or in this case, the fantasy baseball knowledge for the cost of sunshine.

In case you’ve missed it so far, here is how this all works.

(1) You stop by BaseballGuys.com.

(2) You’ll get a chance to review a handful of the players at the position of the day.

(3) You’ll find a CODE at the end of the article.

(4) You’ll take that CODE and email it to me at: fantasyfandom@yahoo.com

(5) I’ll send you back a neat and tidy PDF file with the top-100 plus players at the position.

How does that sound to you?

The best part?

How about the cost… it’s 100% FREE.

All I ask is that you tell a friend.

OUTFIELDERS

Here are a few examples of what you will receive in the PDF.

Chris Young
One of two players who went 25/25 (CarGo was the other), Young had a year that was similar to his ’07 effort (.237-32-68-85-27). The one improvement he made was to shorten his swing in 2-strike counts which enable him to reach a career best in average and a career low in his K-rate. He’ll never win a batting title, but his production is well worth taking on that low average.

Jose Bautista
After hitting 43 homers in 2007-09 he bettered that mark by 11 last season. He hit 28 homers in 2008-09. He bettered that mark in the second half of 2010. We could go on, but the point is obvious; Bautista was so far out of the realm of his career track record last season that positing a repeat is impossible. He should provide plenty of power, but don’t pay full price.

Nick Markakis
One of three men in the history of the game with 43 doubles in 4-straight years, Nick’s fantasy value tanked as he produced runs like a second baseman. Nick did post his lowest K-rate since his rookie season, and the second best walk rate of his career, which is great news as he hit at least .290 for the 4th straight year. Expect a mild rebound making him a solid value.

The Outfielder code is: Open Spaces.

By Ray Flowers

2011 Player Capsules: Second Base, Shortstop

I love it. The response has been overwhelming, and I want to thank you all for your support and kind words.  I’m borderline ecstatic at the response I’ve received, but at the same time I’m sending so many of these files back to everyone that I needed to come up with a better plan moving forward. Hence, I’m going to be combing positions up the middle in order to cut down on the emails I’ll need to send out. I need time to go out to find the love of my life people.

In case you’ve missed it so far, here is how this all works.

(1) You stop by BaseballGuys.com.

(2) You’ll get a chance to review a handful of the players at the position of the day.

(3) You’ll find a CODE at the end of the article.

(4) You’ll take that CODE and email it to me at: fantasyfandom@yahoo.com

(5) I’ll send you back a neat and tidy PDF file with the top-50 or so players at the position that is under discussion for that day.

How does that sound to you?

The best part? How about the cost… it’s 100% FREE.

All I ask is that you tell a friend.

SECOND BASE / SHORTSTOP

Here are a few examples of what you will receive in the PDF.

Stephen Drew
For the first time Drew hit double-digits in steals, and the results was one of four efforts last year in which a player had double-digit homers, doubles, triples and steals at the position. Drew has never taken the next step to fantasy stardom, but if you add together his best yearly totals you end up with a 5×5 line of .291-21-67-91-10. Who wouldn’t take that from their shortstop?

Grant Green
Green should one day be a star in the big leagues. The A’s watched him destroy High-A pitching last year to the tun of a .318-20-87-107-9 line with about the only complaint being 117 strikeouts. Given that he finished his career with the sixth highest batting average in USC history, that’s hardly a surprise. He should only be rostered in keeper leagues at this point.

Brandon Phillips
Even in a down year he was just a couple of homers and four steals from a 4th straight 20/20 season. Moreover, Phillips has averaged 21 homers and 24 steals in his five seasons with the Reds. His batting average is rarely impressive, he owns a .267 career mark, but his ability to produce homers and steals is unparallelled at the position the past five seasons.

The Middle Infielder code is: Have Glove, Will Travel

By Ray Flowers

2011 Player Capsules: First Base, Third Base

You’re killing me.

I say that with all due respect mind you. Let me tell you what I mean.

I sit at my computer all day, every day, typing away answering emails, writing articles, researching etc. It’s a rather sad existence at times (who am I kidding, how great is it that I get to work in my slippers?). I’m used to long days, 12 hours is often the norm, so I’m not unfamiliar with onerous work schedules. So what did I mean when I led off this piece with “you’re killing me?”

Simply put, my mailbox has been flooded with requests for the FREE player capsules I’m giving away. I’m borderline ecstatic at the response I’ve received, but at the same time I’m sending so many of these files back to you, the reader, that I needed to come up with a better plan moving forward. Hence, I’m going to be combing positions in order to cut down on the emails I’ll need to send out.

In case you’ve missed it so far, here is how this all works.

(1) You stop by BaseballGuys.com – Fantasy Baseball Blog.

(2) You’ll get a chance to review a handful of the players at the position of the day.

(3) You’ll find a CODE at the end of the article.

(4) You’ll take that CODE and email it to me at: fantasyfandom@yahoo.com

(5) I’ll send you back a neat and tidy PDF file with the top-50 or so players at the position that is under discussion for that day.

How does that sound to you?

The best part?

How about the cost… it’s 100% FREE.

All I ask is that you tell a friend.

FIRST BASE / THIRD BASE
Again, to lighten the workload a bit, I figured I would combine corner infielders (1B, 3B) today.

Here are a few examples of what you will receive in the PDF.

Derrek Lee
When healthy he has rarely been great but he is almost always very good. In each of his last 10 healthy seasons he has hit at least 19 homers with 70 runs and 70 RBI. Those numbers don’t sound exciting, but since 2000 his total of 10 such seasons leads all first basemen. Age is catching up with him, and he never runs anymore, but he is a safe option if you don’t reach.

Aubrey Huff
Huff and the Rally Thong helped lead the Giants to the World Series, and they’ll both be back for two more years in San Francisco. One of only four first basemen to hit .290 with 25 homers, 85 RBI and 100 runs, Huff rebounded from a disastrous 2009 to post his 7th 20-homer season and his 6th season of 85 RBI. If you pay for a repeat you should be on fairly solid ground.

Pablo Sandoval
Thinking the way to major league success was paved with pizza and profiteroles, Sandoval’s weight was/is a major issue. The Giants have put Pablo on notice that if he can’t see his toes, he could be sent to the minors. Just a year removed from an all-star caliber season, Sandoval would benefit from a more patient approach. Can weight loss help that?

The Corner Infielder code is: Plentiful Power

One last thing. For those of you looking for some baseball talk, you can click on this link to the DSD Podcast. I talked with Aaron and Karter about Adam Wainwright, Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera and other topics around major league baseball.

By Ray Flowers

2011 Player Capsules: Catchers

Over the next little while I’m going to release hundreds of player capsules for hitters. I’ll break them down by positions each day, and give you a sampling of what I’m going to provide to each of you. So this is how it will work.

(1) You stop by BaseballGuys.com.

(2) You’ll get a chance to review a handful of the players at the position of the day.

(3) You’ll find a CODE at the end of the article.

(4) You’ll take that CODE and email it to me at: fantasyfandom@yahoo.com

(5) I’ll send you back a PDF file with the top-50 or so players at the position that is under discussion for that day.

How does that sound to you?

The best part?

How about the cost… it’s 100% FREE.

All I ask is that you tell a friend.

Here is an example of what to expect.

Chris Iannetta
For some reason the Rockies haven’t trusted this guy despite the fact that per 500 at-bats in his career that he has averaged roughly 23 homers and 83 RBI. His batting average is an eyesore, he owns a career .234 mark, but with ample power and an ability to take a walk (.353 career OBP), it’s odd that he has been given more than 300 at-bats just once in his career.

Yadier Molina
A batting average booster in 2007-09, Yadier fell on hard times last season posting his worst average since 2006. Despite that fact, there is reason for optimism. His walk rate was up last season leaving him with a career average BB/K mark, and his line drive rate was a career-high 21 percent. A .281 BABIP likely speaks to a bit of poor luck for the Cardinal in 2010.

Jorge Posada
At nearly 40 years of age, Posada simply can’t handle the rigors of catching on a daily basis. That’s why the Yankees plan to use Posada as their DH in 2011. Can Posada still hit? He will be a threat to 20 homers and 70 RBI – totals he has reached eight times in the same season – if he can stay healthy, but beware his declining bat speed and what that might do to his average.

The Catcher code is: Tools of Ignorance

By Ray Flowers

2011 Player Capsules: Designated Hitters

People have been clamoring for my thoughts on players for years. The fervor is almost like when the paparazzi try to snap photos of Lindsey Lohan as she sneaks out the back door of yet another club,or rehab center, bombed out of her mind on the latest designer vodka. OK, it may not be quite like that, and truthfully the only real parallel is that Lindsey and I like to pull back on Belvedere when we get the chance. Still, some people are interested to hear my thoughts on players, so here is what I’m going to do for all of you at BaseballGuys.com.

Over the next little while I’m going to release hundreds of player capsules for hitters. I’ll break them down by positions each day, and give you a sampling of what I’m going to provide to each of you. So this is how it will work.

(1) You stop by BaseballGuys.com.

(2) You’ll get a chance to review a handful of the players at the position of the day.

(3) You’ll find a CODE at the end of the article.

(4) You’ll take that CODE and email it to me at: fantasyfandom@yahoo.com

(5) I’ll send you back a neat and tidy PDF file with the top-50 or so players at the position of the day that is being discussed.

How does that sound to you?

The best part?

How about the cost… it’s 100% FREE !

All I ask is that you tell a friend.

Deal?

DESIGNATED HITTER

Here’s a sample of what you’ll be getting.

Jack Cust
Cust will fight for at-bats in the Pacific Northwest a year after failing to hit 25 homers for the first time in four seasons. Cust walked and struck out like he always does, but the lack of long ball power was a big surprise. That trend may not turn around in a difficult yard to go deep in. Lost in all of that is the fact that Cust hit a career best .272, though that’s hardly promising on its own.

Nick Johnson
At some point you have to realize that She’s Just Not That Into You (shameless movie reference). Johnson is a talented on base machine, but he has about as much chance of staying healthy long enough to be a fantasy weapon as I do of exactly predicting his at-bat total (good luck getting within 100). You should only call out Johnson’s name on draft day if you are a masochist.

The Designated Hitter code is: Ban the DH

By Ray Flowers

Top-10 3B for 2011

Taking a look back at 2010 and trying to project what will happen in 2011 is what we do at Fanball. To that end, Ted Carlson has been sending out assignments for the staff to rank our top options at each position for the 2011 season. Today, I’ll defend my rankings for the Top-10 Third Basemen for 2011 an explain my thoughts on Pablo Sandoval.

For the other reviews in this series, click on the following links.

Top-20 SPs: Latos and Jimenez?

Top-10 RPs for 2011.

Top-20 OFs for 2011.

Top-10 SS for 2011.

The internet is full of rumors about the fate of Pablo Sandoval in 2011. There is the report about him eating Cheetos and Mountain Dew for breakfast. There is also this photo of him indulging in a rather large dessert. All of this brings up the point that this dude, at just 24 years old, needs a drastic change of focus before he eats himself out of the league. Listed at 246 lbs, there are many reports that he is at least 20 lbs north of that total — and remember, he stands 5’11 and is just 24 years old. We can all see where this is heading, and GM Brian Sabean wasn’t afriad to lend the words to what everyone was thinking. “Worst case, if he doesn’t pull off what he needs to do in the offseason, he could end up in the minor leagues to start the year to get his act ready,” Sabean said.

So, why in the world would I have Pablo ranked 9th amonst third basemen heading into 2011? There are many reasons.

(1) People seem to have totally forgotten that Pablo hit .330 with 25 homers, 90 RBI and a .943 OPS just a year ago (it was 2009 folks). Since 2000, there have been only 22 players in all of baseball with a season in which they matched all four of those totals. Unless you think he is the next Norm Cash, you have to be impressed by those numbers.

(2) In 346 games, that’s just about two seasons worth, he has hit 41 homers with 177 RBI, 164 runs an a .305 average. Do you know how many third basemen hit .305 with 20 homers, 85 RBI and 80 runs scored in 2010? Try two – Adrian Beltre (.321-28-102-84) and Ryan Zimmerman (.307-25-85-85). That’s it.

I’ll freely admit that Pablo was a mess in 2010, and instead of going through the numbers that prove what everyone already knows, I’ll do something I rarely do, and that is to offer a personal scouting report on the player.

Sandoval’s approach has always been in question. He may possess an uncommon ability to put the barrel on the ball, a skill akin to what Vladimir Guerrero can do, but that approach leads to all kind of trouble when the hits aren’t falling. Instead of being patient, waiting for his pitch and talking a walk if it’s appropriate, free swingers like Sandoval start to swing at “pitcher’s pitches,” those that are two, three, four inches out of the zone – because after all he can put the bat on those pitches. Pitchers aren’t stupid, and when word gets out that a batter will chase pitches, why on earth would they throw strikes? Clearly, Sandoval needs to work on his mental approach as he is in desperate need of some patience.

As concering as his free swinging approach was, I’m almost as concerned with his hitting mechanics. For virtually the entire season, Sandoval was leaking out over his front foot. What that means is that when he took his stride he was unable to keep his weight back. As a result, his weight would move forward over his front foot leaving him with zero power because at that point all he had left to hit with was his hands (think what it’s like when a guy is expecting a fastball and gets a changeup. You know, when it appears that he is really off balance and all he does is flip his bat at the ball in a desperate attempt to make contact). I’m sure the coaches mentioned this to Sandoval repeatedly, I’m certainly not the only person who noticed it, but it is a situation that simply must be rectified for him to be able to once again drive the ball into the gaps and over the fence.

Pablo is too talented to disappear unless he eats his way out of the league. I for one believe that he has gotten the message loud and clear (he’ll skip winter ball and train in San Diego this offseason). I won’t be reaching on Sandoval at the draft table, but I’d be more than happy to take him in the middle rounds if he were to fall – you just can’t teach the talents that he does possess.

By Ray Flowers