Player Profile: Henderson Alvarez

What do you do when your called out? Do you shrink into a corner? Do you pick up your machete and start slashing? Do you ignore it and pull back on a Pilsner? My weapon of choice is the written word, luckily for Tim Heaney of KFFL.com.

(Tim an I go way back, so take what your about to read in the right vein. I’m just playing things up to make it look like Tim is a jerk-face. In truth, he’s one of the nicer guys around).

So what is this battle about that I speak of? Last week I tweeted that Henderson Alvarez had “no chance” of being a top-75 SP in 2012. Tim caught wind of this tweet, and offered a very reasonable rebuttal at KFFL.com.

“He’s a Scott Baker, Ricky Nolasco type – moderate K/9, pristine BB/9 – who’s much cheaper and offers similar upside, if not more for his relative cost.”

I’ll give Tim credit as he threw back in my face two arms that I always talk up each year, an always believe in. If Alvarez really is a pitching on par with those other two then I would be wrong to dismiss Alvarez as a potential top-75 arm. I hate admit when someone might have the drop on me. My only hope is that Alvarez isn’t the type of arm that is on par with those others. Let’s see…

Tim stated that the sample size with Alvarez is small – only 10 starts last year with the Blue Jays. That is always one of the bigger issues for me. In a general sense, I’m a big believer in the ‘I’ve seen him do it before so I feel fairly certain he could do it again.’ The result of that mindset is that I’m often much lower on rookies than many others are. I’m not stupid enough to state that guys like Brett Lawrie and Matt Moore can’t possibly be good because they haven’t played a full big league season, that would be completely foolish. However, I’m of the opinion that it’s tough to pass on a guy like Aramis Ramirez or Matt Garza in favor of youngsters that have yet to cut their teeth at the big league level. If I’m reluctant to go all in on elite talent then it’s not a leap at all to understand why I’d be less than thrilled to push Alvarez above proven big league talent.

Tim also points out another issue that apparently concerns me a bit more than it does him – Alvarez skipped Triple-A. Moreover, dude has all of 88 innings above A-ball. I don’t like that at all. Many pitchers need at least 500 innings of minor league innings to truly get everything under control an Alvarez is well under that at 405 total with less than a fifth of that against guys above A-ball. That makes me pretty nervous. Not like I’m unable to speak to you because you are a beautiful woman, but maybe more like I need a belt of booze in order to gain some courage to chat you up. Speaking of Henderson’s minor league career it’s not like he posted special numbers even at the lower levels. Here are his career totals: 27-24, 4.02 ERA, 1.30 WHIP an a 6.5 K/9 mark. None of that, none of it, says top-75 major league arm.

Despite what the numbers say, Tim does bring up a couple of salient points. First, Alvarez doesn’t walk anyone so even though his strikeout numbers might not impress his K/BB ratio is, in Tim’s words, pristine. Tim is right. The mark was 3.77 during his minor league days and even higher at 5.00 in 63.2 innings in the bigs last year. I gotta be honest though. Do you really think though that Henderson can be expected to walk less than a batter per start moving forward? The second point, and I can’t refute this one in any way, is that Alvarez induces grounders. That always helps a pitcher out and is often the key to mitigating big innings because homers can kill ya. Maybe the addition of another pitch – a slider – will help even further as Tim suggests.

So did I speak too quickly when I said that Alvarez had “no chance” to be a top-75 starter in 2012? Maybe, but I’m not backing down from it. Not only is Alvarez young and unproven at the big league level, he simply doesn’t have much experience against elite competition. He also doesn’t miss enough bats putting him at the mercy of his defense and some random forces. Don’t forget, and this is always big for me, even if a guy like Alvarez has a lot of big league success his value in mixed leagues is  muted if his K/9 rate is a batter an a half below the big league average. Alvarez has a skill set that suggests success is coming, but that’s a far cry from making him a legit top-75 starting pitcher in fantasy leagues in 2012 in my opinion.

For Tim’s rebuttal to my reply see – The Brodown Continues.

What do people think of Alvarez over at Fleaflicker?

By Ray Flowers

Player Profiles: Corner Infielders

We all love Albert Pujols an Evan Longoria, but it’s just not always feasible to have a superstar at first or third base on a fantasy squad, let alone one at each position. Today I’m going to run through some guys who might not quite be top-shelf option but still qualify at first or third base for the 2012.

Chone Figgins: Looking for a corner infielder that could steal you 30 bases on the cheap? This just might be your guy. Figgins, who currently has an ADP of 291 according to MockDraftCentral.com, is going off the board 24th at the third base position. Coming off a dreadful year, Figgins figures to be heavily involved with the Mariners this year and he could easily bat out of the leadoff spot. If he does, he could end up being a nice draft day bargain.

Todd Helton: He’s having a huge spring, but he has recurring back woes an will be 39 in August. Still, he hit .302 with 14 homers and 69 RBI last season, numbers that don’t look that different from a guy like James Loney who will also be discussed below. Helton has nothing to give other than a repeat of last year, and that’s likely why people are overlooking him on draft day.

Aubrey Huff: Everyone is all excited about Brandon Belt, as they should be since the youngster has tons of talent, but Huff is being treated as an afterthought. I will admit things could go either way – Huff could get 500 at-bats or 350 – but with the way the Giants offense looks right now, I think he’ll be closer to the bigger mark. Can the Giants really hope to win if they are giving 500 at-bats to Angel Pagan and Nate Schierholtz? I don’t think so. The club also lacks thump, and while Huff isn’t a huge power bat, the club doesn’t have enough 20-homer power bats to simply overlook Aubrey. Plus, and I know it makes NO sense, it’s an even year, and he just kills it when it is (see his player card).

James Loney: Interested in getting an .285 hitting, 85 RBI bat at pick 259 in mixed leagues? If you are, Loney is your guy. You’re sitting there saying to yourself ‘Ray has lost his marbles.’ I haven’t. Did you know that Loney has hit .281 or better in five of his six seasons? You’re also aware that in three of the last four seasons that he’s also had at least 88 RBI, right? Oh you weren’t? Consider yourself informed.

Brent Morel: He may end up hitting ninth in the order, but Morel has little competition for a starting spot at the hot corner with the White Sox. He may never be any better than a guy like Danny Valencia was last season, but if you get get a .246-15-72-63-2 line from a guy being drafted around 275th overall (those were Valencia’s numbers last season), should you at least know which team he plays for?

Gaby Sanchez: He’s hit 19 homer each of the last two years while knocking in 85 and 78 runs, and he also scored 72 times each season. If Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez do what is expected, and Mike Stanton is out there impressing with the power, then the Marlins might have a pretty darn good lineup. By the way, last season Sanchez had as many homers and RBI as Eric Hosmer and scored just one run less than Michael Morse.

Ian Stewart: A potential 30 homer bat with an ADP of over 380? Sign me up for that. Stewart is dealing with a wrist issue that he will have to keep an eye on all year, and that is concern. Also concerning is Stewart’s massive K-rate of 28 percent, or more than once every four at-bats. I’m not saying Stewart will be an All-Star, and he is coming off a .156, zero homer effort in 122 at-bats, but how in the world is he being taken after Miguel Tejada, Jose Lopez and Scott Rolen? Really people?

Mark Trumbo: I must be missing something here, aren’t I? Why in the world is everyone so high on a guy who had a .291 OBP an a BB/K mark of 0.21 last season? The guy has major power, but he also has some pretty gaping holes in his game. Everyone assumes he is going to play third base full time this year. One main problem with that is that Alberto Callaspo is already in town, and he owns a solid glove (Trumbo is still trying to prove he can handle the hot corner). Callaspo also hit .288 last year and is a .281 career hitter with a .337 OBP. Those numbers aren’t great, but Trumbo doesn’t figure to reach either in 2012. For those thinking Trumbo is going to get 500 at-bats this season I would offer an  dose of reality – it’s going to be tough for him to get there.

If you’re looking to do a fantasy league this year, why not give Fleaflicker a try?

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Doug Fister

For four months in 2011 Doug Fister was who we thought he was. Then, mysteriously, he was dealt to the Tigers and somehow he channeled his inner Greg Maddux. What pitcher should we be expecting in 2012 – the solid innings eater or the historically elite control artist we saw in Motown?

This 6’8”, lanky right-hander (he weighs 210 lbs) was a moderate option on the hill for his two and a half year run with the Mariners. Sure he posted a solid 3.81 ERA and 1.24 WHIP over his 378 innings, but he also went 12-30, allowed more hits than innings pitched (389) and struck out just 5.2 batters per nine innings (remember, the major league average is about seven per nine). So, how did this league average arm, over 60 games mind you (59 starts), suddenly morph into an elite hurler with the Tigers?

I don’t put much stock in W-L records, you all know that by now, but Fister did go 8-1 in his 11 games with the Tigers. Brushing that aside, what about his performance on the hill? Fister posted a 1.79 ERA and 0.84 WHIP for the Tigers. Uh, yeah, not sustainable, but you already knew that. Even the most optimistic of prognosticators would probably say that a 2.83 ERA and 1.03 WHIP are wildly out of control expectations for Fister, and those numbers are his year long totals from 2011. Hopefully you come to BaseballGuys regularly and I don’t have to say anything more than this – there is no way that Fister remotely approaches those ratios in 2012, it just isn’t going to happen.

So how did Fister have all that success with the Tigers?

First off, the competition wasn’t exactly elite. In his 11 appearances with the Tigers he faced the Orioles once, the Rays once, the Athletics once and the Indians four times. Those teams weren’t exactly offensive powerhouses.

Second, Fister didn’t allow many long balls dropping his already impressive career HR/9 rate of 0.7 down to 0.5. Fister generates a good deal of ground balls, 46.5 percent for his career, but he’s also been aided in keeping the ball in the yard by favorable home pitching environments (don’t forget that the porous infield defense the team figures to run out there this season could also hurt Fister). Last season Comerica Park was completely neutral in terms of the long ball with a Park Indices mark of 100 (the number 100 signifies that the park was exactly neutral not favoring either the hitter or the pitcher) which doesn’t explain why he was so fortunate in the HR/9 column. A regression is coming perhaps?

Third, Fister pushed his poor 5.5 K/9 mark with the Mariners, which was an exact match for his career rate, up to 7.3 with the Tigers. It’s pretty darn rare that any hurler is able to add two batters to his K/9 mark, especially when we have nearly 400 innings at the lower rate. I’m not saying that Fister won’t be able to hold on to  some of that in 2012, but the smart money would certainly be on that mark dipping back down into the six’s if not the five’s.

Fourth, and this is the most remarkable part of his 2011 work, he simply didn’t walk anyone with the Tigers. A career 1.9 BB/9 arm with the Mariners – an excellent mark given that the big league average is about 3.1 – Fister dropped that mark to 0.6 per nine as he walked a total of five batters in 70.1 innings. Remember when I mentioned Greg Maddux earlier? Widely regarded as one of the best pitchers of all-time (mostly for his pinpoint control), Maddux had a 1.8 BB/9 mark for his career an only once did he ever post a BB/9 mark under 1.0 (it was 0.8 in 1997). Simply put, Fister has as much chance of repeating that number over a full season as I do of convincing you all that I know exactly how many base hits that Brandon Inge will rack up this year.

Fifth, I’m all about K/BB ratios and how important they are (see my recent work on SWIP), but come on now. Fister’s 11.40 mark was, get this, four times greater than his career mark of 2.76. Speaking of SWIP, even with all of Fister’s success at keeping the free passes completely removed from his game, his SWIP mark of 0.50 was barely better than the league average of 0.45.

The bottom line with Fister is this. He was out of his mind locked in the final two months of 2011. He has no chance to produce at that level over 30 starts in 2012. None. Could he match his season long totals from last season? It’s certainly possible. Still, a 6.07 K/9 mark is nothing to get excited about in the fantasy game (his 2011 season long total). Second, his xFIP says he was a 3.61 ERA arm last season, not the 2.83 mark his raw ERA suggested. Third, his BABIP was down .030 points from 2010 despite the fact that he gave up more line drives than at any point in his three year career (the 20.4 line drive was a bit above the big league average of 19-20 percent while his BABIP was below the big league average of about .300). Those two factors don’t point to him holding batters to a .237 batting average yet again (don’t forget that Fister could also be handicapped by what figures to be a less than average group of defenders in the infield).

Fister is a solid reserve round add but he unlikely to match the overall totals he posted last season with no chance at all of continuing the elite level production he offered as a Tiger in 2011.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Ichiro Suzuki

One of the greatest runs in the history of baseball came to an end last season as Ichiro Suzuki failed to record 200-hits for the first time in his 11 year career. Is he washed up as a fantasy ace after one down season that saw him hit just .272?

Already 38 years old after a distinguished career in Japan, there are certainly concerns with Ichiro’s game heading into 2012. Let’s me start with the two biggest issues facing the venerable All-Star.

(1) Most obvious is Ichiro’s age. There simply no way anyone can put off Father Time forever, and it seemed like the old fella really dug his fingers into Ichiro last season.

(2) Ichiro’s performance suffered significantly last season. A career .326 hitter, Ichiro hit just .272 last season with only 184 hits ending Suzuki’s big league record of 10-straight 200-hit seasons.

With those two facts in place, Ichiro’s ADP is as low as it has ever been. Over at MockdraftCentral Ichiro is barely holding on to a top-30 spot in the outfield and a top-100 overall ranking. Given his struggles last season, does his current placement among outfielders make sense? Some thoughts.

Ichiro played 161 games last season, the 10th time in 11 years that he’s appeared in at least 155 games. The dude is a rock.

Ichiro scored 80 runs, just one run behind his average of 81 from 2009-10.

Ichiro knocked in 47 runs last season. Obviously that’s a terrible total, but it was his 4th straight season in the 40′s, so it was the same as usual for this lefty hitting slap hitter.

Ichiro may have hit much worse than ever before, it was his first season under .300, and his OBP fell from a previous career worst of .350 all the way down to .310 – which is below his career batting average. Still, would it surprise you to learn that he still stole 40 bases for the third time in four years despite being on base much less frequently than normal?

As for that average dip, given his style of hitting, it wouldn’t take much of a lost step to cause his average to fall. Still, I just mentioned how he was successful as always on the base paths, so a loss of speed isn’t solely to blame for the dropoff. Ichiro had a walk rate of 5.4 percent last year (career 6.2) and struck out at a 9.6 percent rate (career 9.3). Nothing changed there. His line drive rate was 19.1 percent, just below his 20.2 percent career rate. Again, not much to explain the nose dive his average underwent. It should be pointed out that he did produce a seven year high in his ground ball rate at 60 percent, and when you hit that many balls on the ground it’s pretty darn difficult to generate extra base hits (even when he did hit the ball in the air, his HR/F rate was a career worst). Ichiro, the owner of one of the more impressive BABIP marks of all-time (.351) failed to reach .316 for the first time in his career as his mark fell to .295. At his age it’s not a shock that his BABIP would start to dip, but after he posted a mark of at least .334 each of the previous five seasons his .295 mark last season really came a bit out of nowhere.

Let me ask you this. Which set of fantasy numbers would you prefer?

.272-5-47-80-40
.264-9-40-82-40

The first line belongs to Ichiro, the second to Cameron Maybin. According to ADP numbers, Maybin is being selected one pick ahead of Ichiro in the outfield, so clearly people are banking on an improvement from the younger but far less accomplished Padres outfielder (“far less accomplished” really isn’t even accurate. How about I throw the famous ‘he can’t hold his jock strap’ line out there). I’m not going to say that the majority of people are wrong in selecting Maybin over Ichiro, but it’s pretty interesting how far Ichiro has fallen at this point of his career isn’t it when a decade of excellence has him being taken off the board right behind a guy who has one full season in his major league career?

Ichiro, a leadoff man his entire career, is being asked to hit third in the order this year by the Mariners. Owner’s of one of the worst offenses in baseball, Ichiro should still be able to have success in the three hole. Conventional wisdom would have you believe that he will run a bit less but knock in more runs than he has in the recent past. I’m not so sure that he’s really going to curtail his running that much because so much of Ichiro’s game is being a mover and shaker on the base paths. Whatever the truth, Ichiro is to the point where excellence can no longer be expected. That doesn’t mean you should forget about him completely, he’s still capable of improving slightly upon last years effort (never doubt greatness), but he certainly is no longer someone you’ll want as a top option on your fantasy squad – not even close.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Delmon Young

In 2010 Delmon Young was a star. Not only did he finish one hit from a .300 season, he also bashed a career best 21 homers and socked 46 doubles. Young also knocked in 112 runs, the 8th highest total in baseball, more than Robinson Cano (109), Mark Teixeira (108), Ryan Howard (108), Evan Longoria (104), Ryan Braun (103), Matt Holliday (103) etc. So how is it that Young is currently going off the board as the 65th outfielder taken with an ADP of 233 overall according to MockDraftCentral?

The most obvious answer as to why Young is being drafted after guys like Lorenzo Cain, Seth Smith and Lucas Duda is that Young failed to follow up his breakout 2010 effort last season. Young slumped to a career worst .268, hit only 12 homers, scored just 54 runs and nearly saw his RBI total cut in half as he produced just 64. As I talk/write about all the time, people have really short attention spans at times. However, one would hope that if a formerly impressive performer struggled but turns things on toward the end of the year, that people would remember that. Apparently that is not the case with Young. After joining the Tigers Young, who had four homers and 32 RBI in 84 games with the Twins, went on to blast eight homers with 32 RBI in 40 games with the Tigers. Delmon isn’t going to hit 32 homers with 128 RBI this season, but that hot finish should have spurred some interest in Young, but alas, it really hasn’t.

One of the biggest issues with Young has always been expectations. I say that because Young has never become the superstar that people expected he would be when he was taken first overall in the 2003 draft. Go back and look at prospect reports and you will see that Young was ranked as the number one prospect in baseball for multiple seasons. He’s only had one effort in five full seasons that is worthy of that designation though, an as a result I would bet you that people are burying Young as a “failure” instead of realizing that he is a pretty solid performer – once expectations are thrown out the window.

What Young isn’t is a power hitter. He never will be. It’s possible he might hit 25 homers one day, but 30 homers is likely a pipe dream, hardly a surprise given that he has averaged 14 homers a season the last five years. The reason for the lack of long ball power is that Young has never learned how to lift the ball. The major league average fly ball rate is about 37 percent. For his career Young’s fly ball rate is 33.6 percent. If he isn’t hitting a lot of fly balls then he’s going to need a big HR/F ratio to give him homers (like Ryan Howard). Unfortunately, Young is the owner of a 9.2 percent HR/F rate, right on the major league average. He’s never going to be a big time power bat.

Young also will never lead his team in thefts. He does have two seasons with double-digit thefts with a career-high of 14 back in 2008, but over the last three seasons he’s stolen a total of eight bases while being caught nine times. That’s just pathetic.

However, Young is a strong hitter in terms of his ability to produce hits. Young owns a career batting average of .288 and prior to last season he had never hit below .284 in a season. Why the slump last year then? Though he had an 18.3 percent line drive rate in 2011, one tenth above his career rate of 18.2 percent, his BABIP was a career worst .320 (some .026 points below his career average). A few more of those batted balls should fall for hits in 2012, and with those hits, his batting average will return.

As stated, Young has his limits. He’s never going to be a power hitter, and 2010 might go down as the best RBI campaign of his career. He’s also never learned how to take a pitch, his career BB/K mark is hideous at 0.24, so he will likely have plenty of dry spells throughout the year (being such a free swinger might limit him to being a .285 hitter versus a guy who could hit .315 if he just showed some patience). Regardless of the holes in his game, Young would appear to be a fantastic bargain at his current ADP level. If he’s your 5th outfielder in a mixed league your team will likely be in pretty good shape for the coming season.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: B.J. Upton

B.J. Upton is a borderline star in the fantasy game. If you take the season best marks from the elder Upton in the standard five offensive fantasy categories, you’d be staring at a guy with the following line: .300-24-82-89-44. Unfortunately, Upton also has hit a mere .257 in his career, has struck out at least 150 times in four of the last five years, and he always seems to be one play away from being benched for lackadaisical play. Currently ranked as the 20th outfielder according to MockDraftCentral, should Upton be going off draft boards earlier than his 64.5 ADP mark?

Let’s go season by season with Upton.

2007: He was one of nine players to go 20/20 with 80 RBI/Runs.
2008: He was one of five players to steal 40 bases with 85 runs.
2009: He was one of five players to steal 40 bases with 75 runs.
2010: He was one of two players to hit 15 HRs with 40 SBs and 85 runs.
2011: He was one of four players to go 20/30 with 80 RBI/Runs.

The point here should be obvious. As I mentioned out at the start of this piece, there are certainly issues with B.J., and in the fantasy game the biggest concern is certainly that poor batting average, but there is no denying that the guy can light up a fantasy score sheet. The thing that set apart Upton is that he posses solid power which he combines with elite speed. There’s simply no way around that. The past five years, here is what an “average” Upton effort has looked like: .257-17-69-84-37. For five years now Upton has nearly averaged a 20/40 season with 70 RBI and 85 runs. Those are big time fantasy numbers. Just ask yourself this question; how many guys in baseball can you say have a legitimate shot at 20 homers and 40 steals in 2012? It’s a pretty small group isn’t it?

As for his batting average, you’re just going to have to plan around that. Though he hit .300 in 2007, Upton has settled in as a guy who will struggle to get a hit every four at-bats (he’s been under .245 the past three years). What that means is that if you draft Upton you had better augment your club with a .300 hitter or two. The main reason that Upton isn’t going to hit much better than .250 is that he strikes out in a quarter of his at-bats. Upton does take a walk though, even with all those punchouts he still owns a career 0.45 BB/K mark which is basically league average. Unless he suddenly figures it out at the dish, and the chance of that happening is pretty darn small at this point of his career, it just might be time to admit that Upton simply isn’t going to be someone who is going to help you in the batting average category.

In the fantasy game we like to down players for what they can’t do more than we prop them up for what they can do. Take the case of Michael Bourn. Everyone knows that he is the most consistent stolen base threat in the game, but most also look at him and say ‘he’s not a great fantasy option cause he never hits a homer and rarely knocks in a run.’ People fail to realize that his elite speed makes him at top-50 fantasy player every year. The same situation, at least partially, occurs with Upton. People get scared off by the poor batting average an overlook just how effective that Upton is on the base paths. Think of it like this. There are 10 men in baseball who have at least 130 steals the past four seasons. The only player in that group with 60 homers is Upton (he has 61). Not just that, only three men have 130 steals and more than 40 homers (the other two are Jacoby Ellsbury and Carl Crawford). Upton will never be truly elite in the fantasy game because of that lowly average, but if he were able to channel his 2007 self – the one that hit .300 – Upton could be a top-5 fantasy outfielder in 2012.

By the way, of you’re looking to do a mock draft, Fealflicker has you covered.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Brennan Boesch

The Tigers added Prince Fielder this offseason to team with Miguel Cabrera as the most dynamic lefty-righty duo in baseball. With those two aces in the third and fourth holes in the lineup, whomever hits at the top of the order should not only see a major increase in their runs scored total, they should also see plenty of pitches to hit given that pitchers will not want to face Cabrera or Fielder with the bases full of runners. The leadoff man figures to be Austin Jackson, who I profiled in Fowler vs. Jackson, while the #2 man in the order very well could be Brennan Boesch who is the subject of today’s piece.

Boesch hit .256 with 14 homers and 67 RBI as a rookie, and in year two the third round draft choice followed up those numbers with a .286 average, 16 homers and 54 RBI in 26 fewer at-bats. Clearly those aren’t numbers anyone is going to get too excited about (that may be part of the reason that over at Fleaflicker Boesch really hasn’t been added in that many leagues). Still, his spot in the batting order, if he does indeed hold on to the two hole, has some folks pretty darn excited about Boesch. Is that excitement warranted? Let’s take a look.

The most obvious issue with Boesch through two seasons is the Houdini act he’s pulled off in the second half of both seasons. I’m not talking about him pulling a rabbit out of his hat either. I’m talking about making himself vanish into thin air. Check out his two year pre/post All-Star break totals. It’s enough to make even someone with a strong constitution vomit.

2010 1st half: .342/.397/.593 with 12 homers and 49 RBI
2010 2nd half: .163/.237/.222 with two homers and 18 RBI

2011 1st half: .306/.360/.490 with 12 homers and 44 RBI
2011 2nd half: .219/.288/.368 with four homers and 10 RBI

Maybe we’ll look back on those numbers 10 years from now and get a good laugh, but for now those numbers scare the bejezus out of me. Here are the combined numbers.

1st half: .321-24-93-91-56 with a .911 OPS
2ns half: .182-6-28-33-6 with a .526 OPS

In the first half he’s Matt Holliday but in the second half he is Ramon Santiago. You have to be concerned with those two sets of numbers, at least until he goes out and does something in the second half of the season. Again, it might be a sample size issue – he could hit .300 with 15 homers in the second half this season – but for now the numbers are scarier than a Wes Craven flick.

Boesch is a player that struggles against right-handed pitching. Oh he’s not awful with a .254/.315/.425 slash line, but oddly, he is stronger against left-handed pitching (since he’s a left-handed batter) with a .319/.380/.471 slash line. Think of it like this. Versus righties he is Johnny Damon while he’s Dustin Pedroia versus lefties. Given that most hurlers are obviously right-handed, that’s another level of concern.

Some other facts.

Boesch doesn’t strike out very often, but since he also doesn’t walk a lot his career 0.41 BB/K ratio is just a teenie bit below the league average. Moreover, his OBP of .330 in his two seasons is only four points better than the league average during that time. It should also be noted that though he is looked at as a potential power bat in some circles that his .436 slugging percentage is only .010 points better than the league average for outfielders. In addition, Boesch doesn’t hit too many balls in the air, his GB/FB ratio of 1.12 is smack dab on the league average, while his 10.7 percent HR/F rate is only about a percentage point high. Boesch also has shown little stolen base speed with 12 steals in two seasons, an if he does indeed hit second in the Tigers’ order you can’t think he is going to be getting the green light very often with the two thumpers coming up. As for his ability to help in the batting average category he did show a .027 point improvement in year two, but through 892 at-bats he has hit just .269. Moreover, his .306 BABIP mark is just about league average, and so far he hasn’t been anywhere near the league average in the line drive category with a career mark of just 16.6 percent (the league average is 19-20 percent).

To summarize, Boesch has roughly league average ability in his BB/K rate, GB/FB ratio and HR/F ratio. He’s also produced, roughly, a league average batting mark, OBP and SLG. He also doesn’t steal many bases or hit that many line drives. In short, through two seasons, Boesch hasn’t shown himself to be anything other than a guy that’s going to need 550 at-bats to be a mixed league option because nothing he does stands out. If he can spend the entire year hitting second in the Tigers order that could all change. It could also change if he doesn’t turn into an absolute weakling in the second half of the season. However, pay close attention to the fact that, up until now, Boesch hasn’t shown himself to possesses on outstanding skill. Be careful of expecting too much from the third year player.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: John Danks

John Danks went 8-12 last year with a 4.33 ERA which is apparently causing a lot of people to be wary about rostering him in 2012 (how else can you explain the fact that guys like Hiroki Kuroda and Trevor Cahill are being taken ahead of him according to ADP numbers?). Hopefully I will be able to lay out a convincing case that Danks is not someone you should be fearful of rostering in 2012.

First off, win-loss records are terrible ways to look at a pitcher and try an decide how he performed. Trust me on that one. Even with eight victories last year Danks has still averaged 12 wins the past four years. That’s a solid total even with last years single digit mark.

Danks has a durable arm. Even last season when he struggled with performance an injury he still tossed 170-innings for the fourth straight year. The previous three seasons he threw at least 195 innings each season.

Danks had averaged 157 strikeouts from 2008-10. Last year he dipped to just 135 punchouts so the natural inclination is to think his K-rate slumped so you should be concerned. That’s not the case, an I’m sure that BaseballGuys.com readers already know that. In fact, Danks produced a 3-year high in his K/9 rate in 2012 at 7.13 (his mark the previous two years was 6.69 and 6.85). There’s no concern here.

Danks walk rate last season was 2.43 per nine innings. Guess what? That’s a career best number, half a batter below his 2.94 career rate. Danks’ 2.93 K/BB ratio in 2011 was also a career best mark by the way.

Danks had a 43.8 percent ground ball rate in 2011, his third straight year over 43 percent and slightly above his 4.26 percent career rate. The result was a 1.20 GB/FB ratio just one hundredth off the best mark he had ever posted (1.21 in 2008). Danks actually allowed the second fewest fly balls of his career, percentage wise at 36.4 percent, and his HR/F ratio for the year was 9.9 percent, a direct match for his career mark.

So let’s see if I have this straight when it comes to Danks’ performance in 2011.

A 3-year high in K/9.
A career best BB/9.
A career best K/BB.
A better than career number in GB/FB.
An average HR/F rate.

So why/how were Danks. ERA (4.33) and WHIP (1.34) at four year worsts?

Some thoughts.

(1) Danks’ left on base percentage was 70.1 percent. That’s a career worst (career 73.3 percent).

(2) His batting average on balls in play was .313, a career worst (career .290).

(3) He was unlucky. I know that’s a simplistic way to look at any scenario, but it certainly seems that bad luck may have played a part in Danks’ fall last season in the ratio categories. Take a look at the xFIP of Danks last year (xFIP is normalized to the league level of homers and tracks those outcomes that a pitcher directly has in his control). Danks posted an xFIP of 3.79 which actually is a career best number (career 4.12).

So what do we have in Danks? I believe we have a hurler who is being somewhat overlooked in some respects because people perceive that his performance last year was poor when in truth that simply isn’t the case. If people in your league make the mistake of overlooking Danks consider yourself lucky because you’ll have a shot to roster a pretty darn good hurler on the cheap.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Alfonso Soriano

Alfonso Soriano gets no respect. He gets dogged for not producing a strong batting average, for not stealing bases anymore, and for being vastly overpaid. Even with all of that, I’m still here to tell you that Soriano might just be a strong draft day add because everyone is so down on the former 40/40 man from the Cubs that he could very easily represent a solid value add. The facts.

(1) Soriano has hit .241, .258 and .244 the past three years. Among players with at least 1,500 plate appearances the last three seasons Soriano’s .248 batting average is 117th behind guys like Yuniesky Bentancourt (.252) and Jose Lopez (.250).

(2) Soriano has stolen all of 16 bases the past three years. From 2001-2008 Soriano swiped at least 19 bases each season.

(3) Soriano signed an 8-year deal for $136 million in 2006. He’s owned $18 million each of the next three years. Think of it this way. He’s the hitting version of Barry Zito (the Giants pitcher is owed $39 million the next two years with an $18 million club option or a $7 million buyout for 2014).

So why in the world am I bothering to waste my valuable time writing about Soriano? Here’s why.

(1) Soriano has hit at least 20 homers each season since 2002. Even the last four years when Soriano has failed to record 500 at-bats in a single season, he’s still had efforts of 29, 20, 24 and 26 homers. Among outfielders who have played in the National League Soriano’s total of 99 homers is fifth just one homer behind Jay Bruce for the fourth spot (Ryan Braun had 127, Matt Kemp 111 and Jayson Werth 107). Even if we add in all outfielders regardless of league Soriano’s mark of 99 homers is still tied for 8th beset with Matt Holliday and Josh Hamilton.

(2) Soriano has posted at least 75 RBI in three of the past four seasons. He’s also racked up 75 RBI in eight of the last 10 seasons. Moreover, Soriano’s total of 88 RBI last year was one more than Giancarlo Stanton, six more than Dan Uggla and Brandon Phillips, and 13 more than Matt Holliday. Heck, it was only one less than Andrew McCutchen’s total of 89 and it was the same total as Justin Upton’s 88.

(3) Soriano, according to MockDraftCentral, is going off the board as the 83rd outfielder at 238th overall. I may be off my rocker here, but Soriano is going behind guys like Raul Ibanez (232), Chris Heisey (233), Domonic Brown (236) and Jason Bay (237). Does that seem right to you? Ibanez is likely to be a part-time DH with the Yankees. Heisey looks like a 4th outfielder in Cincinnati now that the Reds have signed Ryan Ludwick. Brown is likely to spend at least half the year in Triple-A (see the comments by GM Ruben Amaro Jr. who suggested that Brown could spend the entire 2012 season in the minors). Bay has hit 18 homers with 104 RBI the last two seasons while hitting .251. You really want all four of those guys before Soriano?

I’m not saying Soriano is a superstar, or that he’s a building block – he is not. However, I do think that he is being overlooked, and the data supports me. Soriano isn’t an option to help in the average or stolen base columns, but lots of players we roster in the fantasy game have deficiencies. However, when you just look at what Soriano did last season you are smacked in the face with the fact that only 14 outfielders in the game hit at least 25 homers with 85 RBI last season. Given that he is going off the board in the 80′s at the outfield position on draft day, you have to see my point right? Grab Soriano as your 5th outfielder and watch him rack up the homers and the RBI… at least he’s still good for that.

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By Ray Flowers

Matt Kemp – Visions of Glory

“I believe in myself to the most,” said Matt Kemp. “I have confidence I can achieve it. I try to set my expectations as high as I can. I think I’m capable of doing it.” What is Kemp claiming he is capable of doing? No it’s nothing as grand as solving the mysteries of Stonehenge, nor is he talking about getting back together with his famous ex Rihanna. No, Matt Kemp was saying that he thinks he could go 50/50 this year – 50 homers and 50 steals.

“It speaks to his confidence and his self-awareness,” GM Ned Colletti said. “Even if he doesn’t make it, it doesn’t mean it’s wrong. It tells me about how he feels about his game. It tells me what he thinks about who he is.” (For the full report see Tim Brown’s article on Yahoo. By the way, if you want to play fantasy baseball this year, Yahoo Sports is a great place to sign up to play). I don’t know if I share Colletti’s vision here, but here are the facts as I see them.

1- Kemp is a supremely talented player who was one homer away from going 40/40 last year.

2- Kemp has nearly gone 20/20 each of the past four years (he missed out by two homers in 2008 and by one steal in 2010). The last four years he has averaged 28 homers and 32 steals. That’s nearly 30/30 for four years folks. Impressive.

3- Kemp has been as healthy as they come. Each of the past four years he has appeared in at least 155 games with between 602 and 606 at-bats in each season.

All of that information points to Kemp being an elite performer (duh). However, history is against Kemp and the potential run to 50/50. No one has ever done it. Ever. Only four men have ever gone 40/40: Jose Canseco in 1988, Barry Bonds in 1996, Alex Rodriguez in 1998 and Alfonso Soriano in 2006. Remember, Kemp was just a homer short of joining the club last season so he was close. Does that mean he could go 50/50? What would it take for Kemp to get to those numbers besides health and an unwavering need to concentrate for virtually every moment he was on the field in 2012?

Kemp hit 39 homers last year in 161 games. That equates to one homer every 4.13 games. If he appeared in 161 games again in 2012 he would need to hit a homer every 3.22 games. That’s a  significant increase an one that he wouldn’t likely to be able to maintain over the course of a season no matter how much faith he has in his abilities (his 40.5 percent fly ball rate last year was a career best but his 37.4 percent career mark is just big league average).

Kemp stole 40 bases last year in 161 games. That equates to a steal every 4.03 games. If he appeared in 161 games in 2012 he would need to steal a base every 3.22 games. That’s a rather significant increase an one that would be almost impossible to maintain. Let’s not forget that every time that Kemp goes deep that’s one more time that he doesn’t have the chance to steal a base. An increase of 10 homers might lead you to say ‘but Ray, we’re only talking about 10 plate appearances,’ an if you said that you would be right. At the same time, he’s going to need every last plate appearance if he is going to squeeze out 50 steals.

Is Kemp going to thumb his nose at history and do something that no one else in the history of the game has every done? An elite athlete with immense talent, Kemp is in the prime of his career and never misses games. On the flip side he hits in a ball yard that favors pitchers and has little protection in the Dodgers batting order. Kemp also has only one season of 30 homers in his career and he has just one effort of more than 35 steals. Clearly Kemp has full confidence in himself, but it would be foolish to think that he could reach the lofty numbers that he says he is capable of producing in 2012.

For thoughts on how Kemp is being viewed by Fleaflicker click on the link.

By Ray Flowers