Fantasy Player Profile: Brandon Belt

In the fantasy game, if a first baseman hit 16 homers and stole 15 bases, you’d be interested right? Well it turns out those are the numbers posted by the Giants’ Brandon Belt during his two seasons in San Francisco. Due to the way he has been utilized by the team in those two seasons he’s only been able to accrue 598 at-bats meaning his 16/15 effort has pretty much been accomplished in a season worth of playing time. What can the youngster bring to the field this season? Will the Giants play him on a daily basis? Does he have a shot to go 15/15 making him a legit option to finish the year as a top-12 first sacker. To the digging we go.

How many first basemen went 15/15 in 2012? The answer is one – Paul Goldschmidt. Over the past five years how many seasons of 15/15 have been produced by a first baseman? The answer is four – Goldschmidt, Albert Pujols, Joey Votto and Lance Berkman. Clearly the ability to steal a base is pretty foreign to the first base position. That makes Belt an intriguing addition to a fantasy club. In addition to his 15 steals he’s only been caught four times for a solid 79 percent success rate. It’s hard to count on 15 steals from Belt, but if he plays every day double-digit thefts should happen.

‘But Ray, the Giants haven’t been playing Belt everyday. Why is that?’

First, the Giants have been a championship caliber team the past few years as you might be aware, so the club hasn’t wanted to give away at-bats to a youngster merely because he had talent. Second, Belt has a few holes in his game that I will address in a second. Third, Bruce Bochy, the Giants’ managers, prefers to go with capable veterans if he has them at his disposal. Heading into 2013 the Giants don’t have a veteran option to play first base, it appears that Brett Pill could function as the backup when healthy (he’ll likely miss the start of the season with a knee issue that required surgery), so it’s really Belt’s job to lose.

Belt hit .225 as a rookie but he upped that mark to .275 last season as he showed marked improvement in the second half when he hit .293 over the course of 72 games. Belt knows how to take a walk, his 11.4 percent walk rate last season is solid, so that should help him to maintain his average. He’s also done a great job with a 22.1 percent line drive rate with his .328 BABIP mark reflecting that of hard hit balls. However, as we know, both of those marks are elevated (19-20 and .290-.300 are usually the big league averages). Players can hold on to those marks, they set their own baselines as we also know, but they are still big numbers even though Belt posted a .392 BABIP and 27.1 percent line drive rate in the minors in 2011. Maybe Belt is one of those players who will settle in at a higher level? We need more data to formulate a concrete answer.

What we do know is that he strikes out a lot. In the minors in 2011 Belt struck out 48 times in 53 games. He then cam to the big leagues and struck out 57 times in 63 games. Last season he knocked a bit off that K-rate, down to 106 in 145 games, but 106 punchouts in 411 at-bats is a poor 22.5 percent K-rate. That level of whiffs could certainly have a detrimental effect on his batting average production.

What kind of power does Belt have? As a left-hander at AT&T Park, his home ball yard does him no favors as Park Indices the last three years tell us that lefties have a mark of 63 in the homer column. That’s 37 percent below the NL average. It’s a terrible place for left-handed power hitters to play. Not surprisingly, Belt has a total of 16 homers in 598 at-bats even though most talent evaluators this this is a 25 homer bat. For his brief career Belt owns a fly ball rate of 39 percent an a fly ball rate of nine percent. Both of those marks are pretty much league average. Oddly, Belt has been a better hitter at home during his career (.289/.368/.465), much better in fact than he has been on the road (.232/.321/.376).

Some other tidbits.

Belt swung at more pitches in the strike zone last season than the year before (many in the Giants’ organization want Belt to keep his eye at the dish while augmenting that with a little more aggression at times). Belt pushed his swinging mark at pitches inside the strike zone from 73 to 77 percent in year two as he seemed to embrace the clubs direction. Unfortunately his contact rate fell from 77 to 74 percent, pretty much negating the improvements first measure.

Belt is intriguing. He’s a young fella, he’ll turn 25 in late April, and as a former college star with a lot of hype, there’s a solid chance that his 2013 effort becomes a memorable one. Given his draft day cost, Belt would seem to be a solid option as a corner infield play in mixed leagues, even if his power and average don’t take the next step (thank the wheels). The Giants finally appear likely to play him on a daily basis, and with the growth he flashed in the second half the trends are encouraging, even if his home ball park might mute his overall production at the dish a wee bit.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Jayson Werth

Jayson Werth is one productive player, and he’s often being overlooked in fantasy baseball in 2013. Should you join the heard and ignore him, or should you buck that trend and target the Nationals’ outfielder in your fantasy baseball draft?

In 2008 Werth, while a member of the Phillies, went 20/20.

In 2009 he was one RBI and two runs away from a 30-100-100-20 season.

In 2010 he hit .296 with 106 runs scored.

In 2011 he saw his average dip to .232 though he was one steal from yet another 20/20 season.

Last year Werth was limited to just 81 games. But were you aware that he hit a career best .300 last season? Did you know that his OBP was .387, .025 points better than his career mark? Did you know that his OPS was .827, just slightly ahead of his career .824 mark? Despite all of that information Werth is currently being drafted just inside the top-50 at the outfield position. That must mean he is a potentially valuable add on draft day, right?

It’s a surprise to many that the following statements are true about Werth’s 2012 season (remember he was limited to just 81 games played so his overall numbers are a bit skewed).

If Werth maintained his pace through 81 games last year over the course of a 162 game season he would have hit .300 with 84 runs scored and 16 steals. That’s a pretty good season, isn’t it?

Did you know that his .300 batting average was better than Matt Holliday (.295), Alex Gordon (.294) and Yoenis Cespedes (.292)?

Did you know that his .387 OBP was better than Austin Jackson (.377), Shin-Soo Choo (.373) and Carlos Gonzalez (.371)?

Did you know that his .827 OPS was better than Bryce Harper (.817), Jason Heyward (.814) and Curtis Granderson (.811)?

How is a guy like that being drafted to late?

The most obvious thing to point to is that Werth missed half of the games last season. On the plus side he had appeared in at least 150 games each season from 2009-11 so recent history would seem to suggest that he has a good chance of rebounding in 2013.

Perhaps people look at the eight steals and aren’t impresses. As I noted though, he was on pace for 16 steals over the course of a full season. From 2009-11 he averaged 18 steals a season.

Perhaps people aren’t buying the .300 average. It was a career best, and he does own a .267 career mark. Why was his average elevated last season? His GB/FB ratio was 1.08, just slightly above his career 0.95 career mark. His 12.2 percent walk rate was just above his 12.1 percent career mark. His 18.9 percent line drive rate was a three year high but still below his career rate of 20.4 percent. Nothing going on there explains why his average went up. Two key points that I’ve yet to mention. After posting a career K-rate of 24.0 percent, Werth cut that number down to 16.6 percent last season. That’s damn impressive. Since that mark had never been below 22.5 percent since 2003 it makes you wonder if he can hold on to that again (the odds say he won’t). If he can it would go a long way to supporting his strong batting average. The other factor to look at is that .356 BABIP. That’s a really big number, but perhaps his give back in that column won’t be as pronounced in 2013 as some might think. (1) He owns a career mark of .327. (2) He had a .352 mark in 2010 an a .389 mark in 2007 showing that he can produce at that level for the course of a season.

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The other issue that has many nervous is his lack of pop last year, and I get why people are nervous there. From 2008-11 Werth never hit fewer than 20 big flies and averaged 27 homers a seasons. Last year he hit five, a pace that would equal 10 homers. Part of the reason that his power dissipated was the injury to his wrist that landed him on the 60 day DL. I say it all the time – hand/wrist injuries can sap a players power, especially right after they return. However, there is more to it than that. He simply didn’t perform up to normal standards. Remember earlier when I noted that his GB/FB ratio was a bit higher than normal at 1.08? That still isn’t a huge number, the league average was about 1.20 last season, so it’s not like he was hitting a ton of ground balls. However, his fly ball rate was 38.9 percent. That was the first time in four years he had failed to post a mark of 40 percent (his career mark is 40.8 percent). That’s a rather minor thing though an certainly doesn’t speak to a 50 percent drop off in homers. The reason that happened is that his HR/F fell to 5.3 percent. Not only is that about half the big league average, it’s a massive drop off for a guy who owns a 14.4 percent career mark, and one who had posted a mark of at least 12.3 percent each of the previous five seasons. As long as his wrist is healthy, he should see his homer total go back up.

So what to do with Werth? The National announced that they were moving Bryce Harper’s spot in the batting order. Harper will hit third behind Denard Span and Mr. Werth. That’s a great spot for Werth as he will see a lot of fastballs so that Span will have a harder time stealing and so that the game’s greatest phenom isn’t always coming to bat with players on base. With health there is a very reasonable expectation that Werth will provide numbers like he always has, and that means a .270-20-65-85-15 type of season is very well within the realm of possibility for a guy who it looks like you may be able to tab as your 4th or 5th outfielder. I like the sound of that a lot and so should you.

* Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Dayan Viciedo

Last season Dayan Viciedo of the White Sox had 25 homers, one more than Hunter Pence, Nick Swisher and Nelson Cruz. Viciedo also knocked in 78 runs, the same total as B.J. Upton and four more than Ben Zobrist. All in all, a pretty darn successful first full season wouldn’t you say? So why is it that I’m never looking at his name with fondness on draft day?

Let’s start with the most obvious reason – he’s not a complete fantasy performer. Viciedo didn’t swipe a single bag last season. None. He’s totaled two steals in 214 career games. Best case scenario he is going to be a four category contributor.

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What about his power? Twenty five homers in 505 at-bats is a nice total, don’t let anyone tell you otherwise. If we combine his power totals from all the levels he performed at the past few years he hit 25 homers in 447 at-bats in 2010 and 21 homers in 554 at-bats in 2011. Clearly he has the pedigree of a fella who can routinely pound 25 pitches into the seats. That history helps to offset a little bit of concern, but I’m still a bit leery. For his career Viciedo has a 17.6 percent HR/F ratio, and that mark was elevated last season at 20.5 percent (15th best in baseball). Can Viciedo maintain that high level of effectiveness? He had better because his career 1.48 GB/FB is not at all what we are looking for when we’re putting together an ideal skill set for a power hitter. Let’s address his approach at the plate and that that might mean for his outlook.

Viciedo walked 28 times all last season. That’s barely a walk a week (the season is 26 weeks long). That’s awful. I mean really, really bad, like when you were seven years old and you convinced the kindergartner to trade you his Oreo cookies for your red apple at lunch recess (I always preferred the green apples personally). Not only does Viciedo never walk, but his K-rate is high at 22 percent for his career. Put another way, Viciedo has a 0.23 BB/K rate which is half the big league average. Also, his contact rate was 76 percent last year. The big league average was 79 percent. The bottom line is that his approach is poor. Therefore, it’s not at all surprising to see that he hit .255, which just so happens to be an exact match for his average in 102 games in 2011. The .255 average, given his approach is about right. The outlier is the .3080 average he posted in 104 at-bats during 2010. So his average isn’t likely to get much better, maybe he hits in the .270 range, but there’s nothing special happening here. What is also a concern is that his OBP last year was .300, just below his .307 career mark. To put that number into perspective the AL average the past three years has been .322. This negatively effects his fantasy value because if you don’t get on base you don’t score runs. If we remove his 25 bombs last season he only scored 39 other times. Terrible. His total of 64 runs scored overall was the same as Jose Bautista who had 173 fewer at-bats.

Another issue to concern yourself with.

Viciedo has crushed lefties in his career with a 1.014 OPS, but in 506 at-bats against righties it hasn’t been very good. Viciedo has gone deep 18 times with a slash line of .225/.274/.360 against righties. Yuck. It doesn’t seem like a platoon is coming down the pipe, but it’s something to think about as he’s not even league average against righties.

Viciedo is a young player, but one that doesn’t have a lot of hype surrounding him. As such, at least you don’t have to overpay for his services. If you’re in a 12 team mixed league and Viciedo is your 5th outfielder, that’s fine. However, be careful that you don’t roster him to be more than that. His plate discipline is terrible. He could lose some at-bats when a tough righty is on the hill. He never steals a base, and that HR/F ratio of his is pretty darn high. He could have a productive 10 year career with these skills, but he’s unlikely to rise the level of being truly relevant in mixed leagues.

* Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Brett Anderson

If you talk to some folks in the fantasy baseball world they will tell you they think that Brett Anderson of the Athletics can be a top-25 starting pitcher (the A’s seem to think so as well as they named him their Opening Day starter). You don’t have to draft him that highly this season, his ADP in NFBC Drafts is barely inside the top-40, so he should be viewed as a prime target on draft day right (for those of you interested, The Oracle currently has Brett Anderson inside his top-50 in his 2013 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide)? Let’s see here…

Anderson had a solid rookie season in 2009. After coming into the year as one of the top-10 prospects in baseball according to Baseball America he went 11-11 with a 4.06 ERA and 1.28 WHIP over 175.1 innings (he also punched out 150 batters). However, the injuries then began to strike. After making 30 starts as a rookie he totaled just 32 starts in 2010-11. Anderson was terrific in 19 starts in year two with a 2.80 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, but he made only 19 starts. In 2011 he lasted a mere 13 outings before he had to shut things down due to a wonky elbow that eventually required Tommy John surgery. Coming back from that injury in 2012 he tossed six games for the Athletics reminding everyone why there was so much interest in Anderson a few years ago (he went 4-2 with a 2.57 ERA and 1.03 WHIP). All told Anderson is 25-25 in his career with a 3.57 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Those numbers certainly don’t jump off the page at you at all, but they are solid numbers for a young hurler who has spent his brief career in the American League.

Let’s take a look at some of his other career numbers.

Anderson owns a career minor league number of 9.4 punchouts per nine innings. Wow is right. The only way that I could be more impressed was if he didn’t walk anyone. Viola. For his 54 game minor league career his walk rate is under two per nine leading to a dominating 4.98 K/BB ratio. Simply, you can’t help but have success with a nearly 5:1 K/BB ratio. In fact, you will likely be a borderline dominant talent if you can do that. Anderson hasn’t been quite that good at the big league level though. He’s still not walking anyone with a 2.19 per nine mark, but the K-rate has really shrunk down to less than seven per nine innings (only in his rookie season has that mark been seven – the last three year’s he’s posted marks of 6.01, 6.59 and 6.43 per nine). As a result he’s given back 40 percent of that K/BB ratio with the Athletics, though a 3.14 career mark is still darn impressive (for his career Felix Hernandez owns a 3.10 mark, Jered Weaver is at 3.17 mark and Jake Peavy at 3.20.).

Anderson’s other calling card at the big league level has been his impressive ground ball tendencies. Anderson has posted a ground ball rate of at least 50 percent in each of his four seasons, and last year the mark was a career best at 59.8 (his career rate is 54.0 percent). When you don’t beat yourself with the free pass, and you keep the ball on the ground, success is very likely to follow.

Anderson’s health is key. It’s one thing to have an injury here or there. It’s another thing to have suffered injury induced reduction in your innings pitched total for 3-straight years. At this point the good news is that Anderson has been deemed healthy after a setback in Spring Training, and it seems like he has a legit shot to return to the 30 start total of his rookie season. However, it would be wise to avoid getting too aggressive with Anderson. After all, he did throw just 35 innings last season for the A’s after throwing only 25.1 innings in the minors. Would the A’s allow Anderson to throw 175.1 innings in 2013 as he did back in 2009? If he did he would be adding more than 100 innings to his total from last season. Even if the A’s let him go for 175 innings he’s not likely to be allowed to reach 200 innings, and that does somewhat cap his value somewhat. It’s also a concern that he’s only been able to throw 120 big league innings in only one of his four seasons, and that certainly increases the risk. Still, he’s a very talented arm who induces ground balls with the best of them, and that should leave the floor pretty elevated with Anderson as long as he can take the ball every five days. He’s a solid 4th starter type to add to you mixed league squad though one that may have a bit less upside than others would lead you to believe given the health concerns and the lack of punchouts.

* Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Josh Beckett

Josh Beckett is a big game pitcher. We all know that. But being able to summon his skills for a game here or there in October isn’t going to make him a worthy fantasy addition in 2013 is it? Will the move back to the NL to pitch for the Dodgers make him what he once was – a viable option on the hill in mixed leagues, a season after going 7-14 with a 4.65 ERA? Let’s investigate.

Dodger Stadium is a good place to pitch, always has been. Petco Park in San Diego, and AT & T Park in San Francisco, are also good places to pitch. That’s a solid foundation for Beckett, if the skills are still there. Are they?

Beckett has done the old Alex Rios, the up and down effort thing, in the ERA column. Look at his yearly marks since 2005:

3.37
5.10
3.27
4.03
3.86
5.87
2.89
4.65

Can’t explain that, it’s just the way it is.

His WHIP? From 2007-09 it was 1.14, 1.19 and 1.19. It then exploded in 2010 up to 1.54. He knocked it back down to 1.03 in 2011 before seeing it rise to 1.33 last season.

Let me take a step back for a moment. Did you notice that Beckett had a 2.89 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 2011? Two years ago he was an elite performer folks. Has the 32 year old lost it overnight? I find that hard to believe, don’t you?

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Lat season was the first time since 2006 that Beckett failed to strike out eight batters per nine innings as the mark fell to 6.97. That’s a concern. His fastball lost about two mph from his normal heater at 91.4 mph (career 93.7). Is that a blip on the radar or his new level? That’s a fair question to ask. It would seem that Beckett realized what was going on as he threw his fastball only 48 percent of the time, the first time that mark had ever dipped under 50 percent. It also marked a fourth straight season of a decline in the percentage of times he hucks the heater. He’s upped his use of the cutter in recent seasons moving from 15, to 18 to 21 percent the past three years. Are batters falling for it? Yes, they are. His 32.3 percent mark in pitches swung at by batters outside of the strike zone in 2012 was the second highest mark of his career. Batters also swung at 69.1 percent of the pitches he tossed up there in the strike zone, the highest that mark has been since 2004. That’s an odd coupling. However, given his 8.5 percent mark on swing and misses on strikes, he’d been in the 8′s in five of the previous six seasons, would seem to suggest that his “stuff” was still OK.

However, Beckett seems to be nibbling more than ever. His 43.3 percent mark in pitches thrown inside the strike zone last season was the lowest of his career an a third straight season of a mark under 50 percent. In fact, the mark has gone down 4-straight years, and no one likes to see that (what I would like to see is pictures of Olivia Wilde – that is one beautiful woman no matter what scale you are using. Hypnotic eyes wouldn’t you say? How the heck did funny man Jason Sudekis get her? What does that guy have on me? OK, maybe $20 million dollars helps.). Beckett walked 2.75 batters per nine innings last year, one hundredth higher than his career mark. Seems like all the nibbling didn’t lead to any increase in the free passes he issued.

Always a homer magnet, Beckett has a career mark of 1.01 which belies a couple of whopper seasons he’s had (1.58 in 2006 and 1.41 per nine in 2010 stand out). His new home in L.A. will help that. According to Park Indices the last three years, Dodgers Stadium is just three percent above the NL average. The park shouldn’t be much of a factor in 2013.

So where does that leave us with Beckett?

It seems like Beckett will slot in as the third starter for the Dodgers behind Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke (when healthy). That’s three potentially impressive arms at the top of the rotation, and the other two should hopefully allow Beckett to relax a bit. The full-time return to the NL will also help, as well pitching in Dodger Stadium. Given the downturn that Beckett offered last year in the mph and K columns, some trepidation is warranted. On the other hand he is a year removed from dominating batters, is only 32 years old, and would seem to profile as an arm that is going much later than he should in many drafts. In a standard mixed league how could you not be interested in a guy with the pedigree of Beckett as your 5th starter (see the ADP information)?

* Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Nelson Cruz

A forgotten player, that’s what we could call the Rangers’ Nelson Cruz. A power hitter that used to have speed, Cruz has lost his ability to steal bases due to continuing leg issues, and Josh Hamilton is no longer his running mate now that he has signed with the Angels. Because of those factors Cruz rarely is mentioned when talks get around power hitting outfielders (check out his current ADP is seeing him go off the board with the 117th selection overall). Why should you be interested in Cruz if he falls in your mixed league draft? If you’ve got five minutes I’ll be happy to explain to you why.

Cruz went 30/20 in 2009, his first big league season of more than 307 at-bats. The sky seemed to be the limit for the athletic, power hitting monster out of Texas. Alas, he’s never reached those homer or steals totals again. Here are his marks in each category since 2009.

2009: 33 homers, 20 steals
2010: 22 homers, 17 steals
2011: 29 homers, nine steals
2012: 24 homers, eight steals

Let’s deal with the steals first.

Cruz has solid speed, and obviously knows how to swipe a bad, but the problem is that he is always seemingly dealing with some injury to his bottom half. As a result, he’s just not running anymore. The last two years he has attempted 14 and 12 steals. Remember, he went for 37 steals in 2009-10. Those days aren’t likely to come back, so 10 should be the upside of expectations with Cruz.

If you haven’t caught Arrow on the CW, I would recommend it. Solid show that’s superhero in nature but more along the lines of Christopher Nolan than Tim Burton. The show features Katie Cassidy, the daughter of David Cassidy, you know The Partridge Family guy. Well done David… on both counts.

As for the power with Nelson, it’s all about at-bats. Oddly, Cruz had a career best 585 at-bats last year and he only went deep 24 times. The previous three years, while he was averaging 28 homers a season, his average at-bat total was 445. IF he can stay healthy 30 homers seem very doable for Cruz. In fact, per 550 at-bats in his career Cruz has averaged 29 homers a season. Why did his total drop last season relative to his at-bat total? The reason can be explained with two measures. (1) He posted his lowest fly ball rate in four years at 40.8 percent (his career mark is 43.3 percent). (2) His HR/F ratio was a five year low at 13.1 percent (career 15.9 percent). Moreover, in three of the previous four seasons his HR/F ratio was over 18.5 percent. If both numbers return to ‘normal,’ as they easily could in 2013 and he stays healthy, that 30 homer season is coming.

As for the run production, Cruz is one of four outfielders to have at least 76 RBIs each of the past four seasons even though he has averaged just 480 at-bats a season (the others are Ryan Braun, Nick Swisher and Torii Hunter). Last season, with his health (159 games), he drove in a career bets 90 runners.

The batting average pretty much it what it is with Cruz. A .268 career hitter, you need to put out of your head that .318 mark in 2010 (399 at-bats) and that .330 average in 2008 (115 at-bats). In three of the last four seasons he has hit .260, .263 and .260. His career BB/K rate is 0.36. His career BABIP is .303. His career line drive rate is 16.9 percent. Nothing there suggests that he’s anything other than the batting average producer that he has appeared to be for the majority of his career.

Cruz doesn’t have Josh Hamilton to ride shotgun to this season, and that’s a concern. However, some people may take that thought too far leaving Cruz as a potentially solid add on draft day. The Rangers still have strong hitters in Ian Kinsler and Adrian Beltre, and guys like Mitch Moreland, David Murphy, A.J. Pierzynski and Lance Berkman can all hit too. It may not be the prettiest group the Rangers have ever put together, but the offense should still be plentiful in Texas. Don’t reach on Cruz, you won’t have to given his ADP, but if you need some power in the outfield and the pickings are starting to get a wee bit thin, don’t forget that if Cruz can repeat last seasons games played total that a run at 30 homers and 100 RBIs isn’t at all out of the question.

* Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Josh Rutledge

When is 277 at-bats enough to determine the value of a player? If you have followed my work for any appreciable amount of time you will know that I’m a big fan of sample sizes. By that I mean we need to have enough data at our fingertips to be able to adequately assess a player’s outlook. For me, 277 at-bats, a half season of work, isn’t nearly enough to paint a fully developed picture of what is going on with a player. For others though it seems like 277 at-bats is plenty. Take the Curious Case of Josh Rutledge…

A third round selection in the 2010 MLB Entry Draft, Rutledge played his college ball at the University of Alabama. He appeared in 11 games at Low-A ball in 2010, then 113 at High-A in 2011 before appearing in 87 games at Double-A before he received his call up last season due to the injury to Troy Tulowitzki. That means Rutledge has 211 games and 855 at-bats of minor league experience on his resume, and just 87 games worth above A-ball. Normally I would be telling people they are crazy if they think that’s enough work for a guy in the minor leagues cause it ain’t much. In those less than 950 plate appearances Rutledge hit .320 with a .374 OBP and .496 SLG. Those numbers play in any league of course. He also had 22 homers, 110 RBIs, 154 runs scored and 31 steals. To say he was a dynamic performer is an understatement. Remember though, only 356 at-bats above A-Ball.

When he was called up last year by the Rockies Rutledge hit .274 with a .306 OBP and .469 SLG. The fact that his numbers regressed from the minor leagues is totally normal. While the SLG was impressive for a middle infielder, there are some concerns with the other two numbers. Admitting that 277 at-bats is nowhere near enough to make a definitive call on anyone, I’m going to be even more obnoxious and shrink things down even further by looking at his season by month.

July: .381/.394/683 (63 ABs)
August: .317/.333/.598 (82 ABs)
September: .209/.266/.304 (115 ABs)
October: .118/.118/.176 (17 ABs)

I know the same size is extremely small but each month his AVG, OBP and SLG went down.

There is also this; Rutledge hit .247 with a .279 OBP in 81 at-bats against lefties.

Piling on.

Rutledge only took nine walks in 291 plate appearances. Nine. That’s atrocious. He also struck out 54 times leaving him with a simply pathetic 0.17 BB/K mark, well under 60 percent off the big league average. Ugh is right.

Though he went deep eight time in those 277 at-bats, Rutledge hit a total of one home run over his last 37 games. He also had a 31 percent fly ball rate, some four percent below the big league average, and that doesn’t exactly paint him as a big time home run threat despite the suggestion that his hot start last year has put into folks minds.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

To review.

Rutledge has one season of experience above Single-A ball.

His performance at the big league level tailed off dramatically as the season wore on.

He’s not likely to be a 20 homer threat even with a full season of at-bats.

It’s unclear if he can improve upon his .274 batting average from last season given his terrible plate discipline and struggles versus lefties.

Now you know the negative. Now a few big positives.

(1) He will play half his games in Coors Field.

(2) He will enter the year qualified at shortstop after appearing in 57 games there last season. With Tulowitzki back Rutledge will be the Rockies’ second baseman giving him strong positional flexibility.

(3) Though he may not be a 20 homer threat, 15 big flies seems doable. Also, he possesses speed. Josh was 7-for-7 last year in steal attempts with the Rockies, and he swiped 14 bases in Double-A before he was called up. The end result being that Rutledge has a shot at a 15/15 season from either the shortstop or second base position in fantasy.

It seems to me that there are more concerns than outright pluses here, but I appear to be in the minority. I’m a fan of Rutledge, don’t get me wrong, but I think his current ADP of 10th at the shortstop position is totally bonkers. People love youngster and the possibility they bring, but I just can’t understand why anyone would take Rutledge ahead of a guy like Alexei Ramirez who has been a solid big league hitter for five years (their ADP has them being take about 35 spots apart). Maybe Rutledge lives up to expectations this year and has that 15/15 season with a ton of runs scored with the Rockies, but I’d prefer a guy with 2,800 big league at-bats like Ramirez over a guy who doesn’t even have 280 at the big league level, especially when that youngster failed miserably for half the time he was in the big leagues (don’t forget that over his final 32 games last season that Rutledge hit .197 with one home run, 10 RBIs and two steals). It’s amazing to me, always has been, at how people are so willing to take a shot on something new and flashy while totally discounting something that is a bit worn in.

* Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Albert Pujols

Albert Pujols will be in the Hall of Fame one day. He is one of the most consistently excellent hitters that that the game has ever seen (only Alex Rodriguez, with 13, has more consecutive seasons with 30 homers and 99 RBIs than Pujols who is at 12 and counting heading into the 2013 season). Pujols is third all-time in MVP Shares (6.90) behind only Barry Bonds (9.30) and Stan Musial (6.96) thanks to three MVP awards and 11-straight years in the top-10 in voting (he fell to 17th last season). Pujols is also 2nd in WAR – everyone’s favorite new measure even though less than one percent of people know how to figure it out – among active players according to BaseballReference.com. Pujols is also going in the top-10 in virtually every fantasy baseball draft this season. I’m going to burst that bubble and let you know that Pujols’ just isn’t the lock he once was, despite the prevailing wisdom, to return his draft day cost. I know Mike Trout is amazing, and the addition of Josh Hamilton to support Pujols is huge, but folks, there is skills slippage with Mr. Pujols.

Let’s start the bashing right off the top, shall we?

Pujols has seen his batting average go down, down, down. Here are his batting average marks the past five years: .357, .327, .312, .299 and .285. That’s four straight years of a declining batting average. Moreover, his .292 batting average the past two years is 28th in baseball and .033 points below his career mark.

Pujols has seen his OBP go down, down, down. Here are his OBP marks the past five years: .462, .443, .414, .366 and .343. That’s four straight years of a declining OBP. Moreover, his .354 OBP the past two years is 38th in baseball and .060 points below his career average.

Pujols has seen his SLG go down, down, down. Here are his SLG marks the past four years: .658, .596, .541 and .516. That’s three straight years of a declining SLG. Moreover, his .528 SLG the past two years is 11th in baseball and .080 points below his career average.

Are you nervous yet? All three of those categories are well above big league average and still very solid marks, but the consistent decline the past few seasons should, at the very least, give you some pause that Pujols is a lock as a top-10 fantasy selection in 2013 (truth be told, I don’t have Pujols as my first or second ranked first sacker this year in my rankings. You can find a link to those rankings at the bottom of this piece in the Draft Guide link).

Some further disturbing trends.

Pujols has averaged 34 homers the past two seasons after averaging 41 homers his first 10 seasons. He’s also dipped from an average of 123 RBIs and 119 runs over the first decade of his career to an average of 102 RBIs and 95 runs the past two seasons.

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Pujols, from 2001-10, posted a walk rate in the double-digits every season. The last two years that mark has been 9.4 and 7.8 percent. To put that last number in perspective, in 2008-09 his walk rate was 16.3 percent more than doubling his mark from 2012.

From 2003-09 Pujols had a K-rate in the single digits. In two of the past three years that mark has been 10.9 and 11.3 percent. The 11.3 percent K-rate from last season is his worst mark since his rookie season back in 2001.

In each of the past three years Pujols has failed to reach his career average with his HR/F ratio. He’s also had three of the four lowest marks of his career the past three years. A career 19.2 percent HR/F ratio has fallen to 18.3, 18.3 an a career worst 14.0 percent the past three seasons.

Pujols hasn’t reached his career 19.0 percent line drive rate since 2008. That’s 4-straight years of less than his career average with his line drive rate (you have to be noticing the trend by now).

His rate of swinging at pitches out of the strike zone continues to increase. A career 22.9 percent mark in this category has swelled to 27.5, 31.8 and 36.4 percent the past three years. That’s a pretty scary increase. As a result, pitchers are throwing him less strikes than ever before. Not only did he see a career low 43.1 percent of pitches in the strike zone last season, he’s failed to see his career average of 47.8 percent each of the past five years.

If you believe his birth certificate, Pujols is 33 years old, an age where some regression is to be expected. Therefore, I’m not the least alarmed at the picture I’ve painted above. What we are seeing here is normal. The problem becomes not his declining production but the expectation that Pujols is somehow going to recapture his past glory. ‘But Ray, with that great lineup around him in Anaheim, surely you think Pujols has another great season in him.’ I would say he has another season in him of excellent production. Is that production first round type of stuff in the fantasy game given the clear downturn in so many of his measures? I’d say the answer to that question is – maybe. Pujols is a lock to be productive if healthy, and I’m not saying he’s going to be Chris Davis in 2013, but I’m merely pointing out that your expectations have a better chance of being reached if you look at the Pujols of the past two seasons and remove thoughts of the .330-40-120-115 guy we are used to seeing at the dish – especially since his knee is still giving him all kinds of trouble.

* Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Elvis Andrus

Elvis Andrus is a somewhat polarizing player in fantasy baseball. Some people love his speed. Others think there isn’t much to separate him from Alcides Escobar. Others think the Rangers might be better off trading him and letting Jurickson Profar have at it (as of now it appears that Profar will begin the year in the minors with Andrus playing shortstop and Ian Kinsler holding down the fort at second base). In what follows I’ll given the pro’s and con’s with Andrus as we try to ferret out what his true value should be heading into 2013.

PRO

Andrus has been a very durable player. During his four year big league career he’s played at least 145 games every season and has hit 150 games played the last two years.

Andrus has hit .275 for his career. That’s not a huge number by any means, but it’s about .020 points better than the league average so there needn’t be any worry about him in this measure. It should also be pointed out that he’s seen his average climb from .265 to .279 to .286 the past three years. Also, he’s been extremely consistent in the BABIP category. For his career his BABIP is .317. The last three seasons that mark has been .317, .312 and .332. Again, consistency which I really like to see. For his young career his line drive rate is 21.6 percent. In three of his four years the mark has been at least 21.9 percent (the only year it was below that was 2010 when it was still at the big league average at 19.3 percent). Andrus is also a rock star at knowing what he is good at and sticking with it. What he does well is keep the ball out of the air. For his career his ground ball rate is 57.4 percent. In his four seasons that mark has been between 55.8 and 61.1 percent. Again, consistency. As a result his 2.72 career GB-rate, a total he exactly matched last season by the way.

Andrus has speed. Some will points out that he stole “only” 21 bases last year, and for a guy who swiped 33, 32 and 37 his first three years that is disappointing. But is there anyone out there who legitimately thinks he couldn’t steal 30 bases again this season? Come on now. How about these facts? His total of 123 steals the past four years is the most in baseball for a shortstop (three more than the oft injured Jose Reyes). Andrus is one of 17 men in baseball who has stolen at least 20 bases in each of the past four years. He’s also the only shortstop in baseball who belongs in that club.

Andrus scored 72 runs his first season, but over the past three seasons he has scored 88, 96 and 85 runs. The last three seasons he is one of 10 men who have scored at least 85 runs in each season. He is the only shortstop that can make that claim. Over the last four years only one shortstop has scored more runs – Derek Jeter (401 to 341). Andrus is third in runs scored the past three seasons at the position – Jeter (294), Reyes (270) and Andrus (269).

CON

He’s yet to hit .290 in a season.

He’s never hit seven homers in a season. In fact, he’s gone deep just 14 times in four seasons. He’s completely deficient in the homer category and that isn’t going to change.

He’s never been an RBI machine. In his first two seasons he knocked in a total of 75 runners. The last two seasons he’s at least improved a little bit up to 60 and 62 RBIs. Still, that’s just not a number anyone wants to see from their starting fantasy shortstop.

He only stole 21 bases last year after 3-straight years of 30 steals.

CONCLUSION

Don’t know about you, but doesn’t the “pro” section look to be a lot more substantial than the “con” section with Andrus? There are some players, think Juan Pierre/Ben Revere/ Brett Gardner etc., that are extremely talented in one respect or another, but totally disappointing in another faze of the game. It’s just how it works folks. Instead of bashing Andrus for his lack of power, a completely fair point to bring up by the way, why don’t we celebrate what he is – a durable, young player who steals bases and scores runs with the best at his position. Andrus has also been an extremely reliable/steady player from year to year without the wild swings that some players throw out there. Andrus also owns a skill set that says his career .275 batting average is totally legit while there might still be a .300 season in his bat and legs. Is he an extremely different player than Alcides Escobar who I referenced at the top of this piece? No he isn’t. Can you get Escobar at a cheaper cost on draft day? You certainly can if you judge the answer by the NFBC ADP information. However, remember this. Personally, I don’t mind paying a little bit extra for stability/predictability. It’s possible that the better play in ’13 will end up being Escobar, but as I noted in his Player Profile there are more questions with Escobar than Andrus. For me, I’ll take a shot on Andrus, especially if he falls a bit on draft day, because I get the felling that there just might be a pretty impressive season in the cards for the Rangers’ starter at shortstop.

* Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Derek Jeter

Derek Jeter, one of the Yankees’ all-time greats (and that is saying something given the storied history of that major league baseball franchise), suffered through two down seasons in 2010-11 causing many to think the time in the sun for the Yankee’s leader was finally drawing to an end. However, showing that greatness should never be doubted, Jeter rebounded with a flurry of offensive fireworks in ’12 proving along the way that his 38 year old body – he’ll be 39 in June – still had something left to contribute in this game. Alas, the good feelings were wiped out when he fractured his ankle in the playoffs leading to October surgery. Jeter is progressing well with hie rehab and everyone thinks he will be on the field Opening Day. The question in the fantasy baseball game is should he be in your fantasy lineup?

Jeter is one of the greatest offensive forces in the history of baseball. Just take a quick glance as his all-time rankings with the bat when compared against other shortstops.

1st in hits (3,304)
1st in runs (1,868)
7th in AVG (.313)
8th in OBP (.382)

He’s also been remarkably consistent with 14 different seasons hitting .290 with 10 homers, 10 steals, 50 RBIs and 75 runs scored. No other shortstop has ever had more than seven such seasons (Barry Larkin).

Above I noted that Jeter had a strong 2012, an effort which included a .316 average, 15 homers, 58 RBIs, 99 runs scored and nine steals. For any player that’s damn impressive, let alone a guy who is pushing 40.

Obviously though there is much more to the story than that or why would I bother writing about him?

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Let’s start with the most obvious issue – his health. Again, his ankle should be good to go but he is coming off a significant injury at 38 years old. That has to cause some concern. Another issue that plays off the injury is that he stole only nine bases last season even before he was hurt. Is an aging player, coming off a significant ankle issue, likely to return to stealing 15 plus bases as he did in five of the past six season before last year?

Next is the power. The 15 homers were a three year high and only one less than he hit in 2010-11. It’s also the second highest mark he has posted since 2005. Clearly he shouldn’t be expected to go deep another 15 times. The back of his ball card tells you that. Going a bit deeper it should be noted that he posted a career worst fly ball rate of 15.9 percent. I have to be honest. There are times where numbers catch even The Oracle by surprise, and this is one of those cases. I knew that Jeter was far from the type of batter that spends any time lifting the ball, but under 16 percent of batted balls going upward? That’s akin to the level of oddness that saw Barry Bonds going deep 73 times. The big league average fly ball rate is literally more than double the mark that Jeter posted in ’12 (35 percent last year). Not just that, but Jeter has failed to reach even 20 percent with his fly ball rate in any of the last three seasons. Moreover, Jeter’s 16.1 percent HR/F ratio last season was the second best mark of his career and four of the previous five seasons that number wasn’t even in double-digits. Fifteen homers ain’t happening again.

Is the batting average repeatable? On the surface you’d have to say yes. After all, he only batted three points higher than his career mark of .313. Still, if I was a betting man I’d lay pretty strong odds against a batting average repeat. He hit .270 and .297 in 2010-11. He’s coming off injury. He’s 38 (stop me if you’ve read this before). There’s also that amazingly low fly ball rate. There’s also the insanely high 3.94 GB/FB ratio (Jeter has hit at least 62 percent of his batted balls on the ground the past three years). Jeter depends, to a large extent, on his batted balls not finding a fielders glove. That’s always going to leave him at the whim of the placement of those grounders and the defenders. He also swung at more pitches outside the strike zone than ever before in 2010 (28.2 percent). He upped that mark to 28.8 percent in 2011. Things got even worse in 2012 at 31.1 percent. Overall he swung at 50 percent of pitches last year, an eight year high. Jeter also posted a contract rate of 84.5 percent, a very solid mark, but still a six year low. Pitchers noticed all of that too as they only threw him strikes on 44.9 percent of pitches, the fewest strikes he has ever seen. None of that speaks to a repeat in the batting average category.

If healthy, and he should be, Jeter will still be an effective hitter. He’s simply too talented an experienced to just fall on his face. However, the average is likely to recede. It doesn’t seem probable that he will be stealing 15+ bags either. There is no way he will go deep 15 times again. Add that all up and you would be in a much better place if you looked at his 2011 effort (.297 with six homers, 61 RBIs and 84 runs scored) as the baseline for your 2013 expectations.

* Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers