Player Profile: Mike Stanton

Ask anyone and they will tell you that Mike Stanton is a future star in this game. The owner of prodigious power, no park in the land can contain the ferocity with which Stanton sends balls into orbit. Because of his almost unparallelled ability to drive the ball into the cheap seats, Stanton’s value in the fantasy game continues to grow. Take a look over at MockDraftCentral and you’ll find that Stanton’s Average Draft Position is inside the top-25 (24.4 actually). Two questions come to my mind when I see that. (1) Can Stanton live up to those expectations? (2) How can Stanton possibly live up to those expectations? I know those are in effect the same question, I’m just trying to make a point — I think it’s going to be pretty darn difficult for Stanton to be as productive in 2012 as people expect him to be based on where he is being drafted. Before I get to that line of thought, he’s a quick run down of Stanton’s skill set.

Stanton has only 875 big league at-bats in his young career so that makes prognostication somewhat more difficult than normal. The guy has one season of 375 at-bats, so the old sample size question can be rightly brought up here as an uncertainty.

Stanton has hit .259 and .262 in his two big league seasons. In those two years he has hit .261, just every so slightly above the big league average of .256. Can he produce a better batting average than that moving forward? On a positive note he did boost his walk rate by three percent while cutting his strikeout rate by 3.5 percent in his second season. However, his BB/K mark was slightly below the league average at 0.42, and he still struck out in more than a quarter of his at-bats (27.6 percent to be precise). That doesn’t sound like a guy who is primed for a batting average increase. Stanton also owns a mere 16.4 percent line drive rate in his career (16.5 and 16.3 percent the last two years). While he should be able to maintain his average given the homers he will hit that don’t count in this measure but lead to hits, it is somewhat concerning that Stanton is pretty far removed from the 19-20 percent big league average.

Stanton is all about the power which he has flashed since day one. However, and yes there actually is a ‘however’ when talking about his power, I have one small concern with Stanton. Much like Ryan Howard, another prodigious power bat, Stanton doesn’t hit as many fly balls as you think. In fact, Stanton’s career fly ball rate of 39.3 percent is only about two percent above the league average. He really doesn’t hit that many balls into the air. As a result, the only way he is going to blast 40+ homers is going to be if he converts a large percentage of those fly balls into home runs. Stanton has done that the last two years with an impressive 24.0 percent HR/F rate, and last year his 24.8 percent HR/F rate was the highest mark in baseball (to compare, the average big league posts a mark of about 10 percent, and even a huge power bat like Albert Pujols had only an 18.3 percent mark last season). Maybe Stanton can lead the league in this category year after year, it’s certainly possible. All I’m saying is that he’s going to have to be near the top of the leader board in HR/F ratio if he wants to hit 40 homers if he doesn’t hit more balls into the air.

Finally, an athletic 6’5”, Stanton has stolen five bases in each of his big league seasons but he’s just not going to run very much – it’s not his game.

So what do we have in Stanton?

(1) We had an hitter who strikes out far too much.

(2) We have a hitter who profiles as a league average contributor in batting average.

(3) We have a hitter with elite power, though one who struggles to hit a lot of fly balls.

(4) We have a player who is unlikely to steal many bases.

Does that sound like a top-25 fantasy player to you?

Let me ask you this – would you be happy if Stanton hit .264 with 40 homers, 106 RBI and 101 runs scored in 2012? You had better say yes because all four of those numbers would be career bests for Stanton. You know who put up those exact numbers in 2007? Try Adam Dunn. Did anyone, EVER, look at Dunn and think he was a top-25 fantasy performer? Anyone? Of course you didn’t. What if Stanton hit .248 with 39 homers, 111 RBI and 90 runs scored in 2012? That would also be considered a career best effort for Stanton so you would have to be please wouldn’t you? Mark Teixeira did that last season and he’s being drafted after Stanton (Tex has a 27.8 ADP). Would you really rather have Stanton over a guy like Teixeira who has hit 30 homers with 100 RBI each of the past eight years given that Tex is also in a great offensive ball yard in a potent offense with the Yankees?

If Stanton improves across the board and has a rather impressive third season, something like either the Dunn or Teixeira campaign’s I mentioned above, he’s still not likely to live up to his top-25 billing. He offers little on the bases to augment his value, and that league average batting mark isn’t going to do him any favors either. I’m not saying to avoid Stanton or that he will fail. I’m merely pointing out that the hope of a huge power season might be causing people to draft Stanton at a point where he can’t possibly live up to expectations.

Don’t forget to pick up a copy of the 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Nate McLouth

Nate McLouth enjoyed his greatest success with the Pirates. Therefore, it only seems logical that he chose to return to Pittsburgh to try and rediscover his his lost game. The club and player agreed on a one year deal for $1.75 million, with $450K in incentives also available, in a low risk move for the Pirates. Can McLouth reward that faith, return to prominence with the Pirates, and once again be a solid outfield option in the fantasy game?

In 2008 McLouth was one of the surprise stories of the year on his way to being an elite outfield option in the fantasy game. Nate hit decent .267, but it was his other numbers that stood out. McLouth hit 26 homers and stole 23 bases to pull off the old 20/20 trick, and he also knocked in 94 runs and score 113 times. It was a stupendous fantasy effort.

For a follow up in 2009 Nate saw all his numbers drop, but he was still a solid fantasy contributor. Splitting the year between the Pirates and the Braves, McLouth hit .256, socked 20 homers, stole 19 bases, drove in 70 runs and scored 86 times. One steal from a 2nd straight 20/20, McLouth was the only  outfielder in baseball to hit 20 homers, steal 15 bases, knock in 70 runs and score 85 times in both 2008 and 2009. I told you he was an impressive fantasy play.

Then things went horribly wrong. Seemingly never fully healthy in his two seasons in Atlanta, he even had a stretch in the minor leagues to try and find his lost game, McLouth appeared in only 166 games. In those 509 at-bats he hit a sickly .210 with 10 homers, 40 RBI, 66 runs and 11 steals. I told you it was awful didn’t I?

So what went wrong? First, and most obvious, is the fact that Nate struggled with injuries. There’s nothing you can do if you are hurt. Is this a trend that will continue moving forward for Nate? It’s possible especially when you factor in that he plays the game very hard, but he’s also only 30 years old and that isn’t exactly an age that sends up red flags.

Performance is another issue to consider. McLouth posted a some awful numbers the last two years including a BABIP in the .220′s both times. Given that he owns a .276 career mark, and never failed to post a mark of at least .271 over his five big league seasons, a batting average rebound seems likely in 2012. He also posted the best BB/K mark of his career, 0.85, in 2011. That’s another good sign. It also makes sense that a fella who owns a 10.1 HR/F ratio for his career would see a regression to the mean after posting marks of 7.5 and 5.3 percent the past two years. At the same time, it’s not like you can just ignore the past two seasons when his skills seemingly eroded.

Will McLouth get a chance to play everyday? That’s a good question. At this point the Pirates have burgeoning superstar Andrew McCutchen who will obviously be in the lineup every day, and the team is fully committed to giving Jose Tabata a chance to fulfill his potential. That being the case, McLouth will have to battle with Alex Presley for playing time in the outfield (Presley would seem to have the lead in the battle), and that situation could get even more crowded if the team brings back Derrek Lee or signs someone else to play first base which would likely force Garrett Jones into the outfield mix (as you can tell from looking over at Fleaflicker, there is no love right now for McLouth). If McLouth plays everyday I think he makes a solid buy low option late in a mixed league draft, but with the Pirates crowded outfield situation at the moment McLouth is looking like a depth option in the outfield in NL-only leagues until the playing time issues work themselves out.

Looking to sign up for fantasy baseball this season? If so, try out Yahoo.com. If you sign up through this LINK, you’ll also be helping out BaseballGuys.com.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: A.J. Burnett

The Yankees and the Pirates worked out a deal that sends the hard throwing A.J. Burnett to the Pirates in exchange for Diego Moreno and Exicardo Cayones (neither is a top prospect). The Pirates also received $18 million from the Yanks to help offset the $31 million that Burnett is due to the next two seasons. Just what type of arm did the Pirates roster for the sum of $6.5 million the next two years?

Burnett’s big ticket item in the fantasy game are the punchouts. You may not have realized it, but A.J. struck out 173 batters last season, one fewer than Max Scherzer, the same total as Michael Pineda, four more than Daniel Hudson and seven more than Wandy Rodriguez. Moreover, the past five years Burnett has struck out 920 batters which just so happens to be the 10th best mark in baseball. It’s also heartening to see that he pushed his K/9 mark back over eight last season after seeing it dip to 6.99 in 2010. He isn’t likely to strike out 200 in the coming campaign, but he could easily post another season of 170 (don’t overlook the fact that he will face pitchers instead of the DH).

All those K’s bring up another point with Burnett. Though he’s long been thought of as an injury risk, and rightly so mind you, he’s actually been pretty darn healthy the past four years never failing to hurl at least 185 innings. His total of 805.1 innings the past four years is 22nd in baseball, ahead of guys like Matt Garza (790.1), Gavin Floyd (780.1), John Danks (778.2), Chad Billingsley (776.2) and Ted Lilly (768). It seems like you can safely roster Burnett expecting him to make 30 starts covering 180 innings, and that stability might help you sleep a bit better at night.

Now Burnett has his fault, and this piece isn’t going to be written with rose colored glasses. He still walks too many batters, last year he issued 3.92 walks per nine innings slightly above his 3.79 career mark, but that’s well within the random variation level of acceptance (even if the number is elevated when compared to the big league average). Something he has not been able to get a handle on though is the long ball. The past three years he’s had a HR/9 mark of at least 1.09 including last years mark of 1.47, a career worst (you can at least partly blame a massive 17.0 percent HR/F rate that was well above his 11.3 career mark). This is an area where he could see some improvement. In 2011 Yankee Stadium was 26 percent above the average AL park in terms of allowing home runs according to Park Indices. His new home in Pittsburgh was 19 below the NL average according to Park Indices clearly pointing to the fact that he might be able to see a fair amount of decrease in his homer rate.

Burnett posted a 49.2 percent ground ball rate last year, and that was a four year best. If he can hold on to that number in 2012, while seeing a slight reduction in his HR/9 mark (the park alone should supply that), he could be in line for a significant improvement in his ERA (his xFIP last year, which is the rate normalized to a league average HR rate, showed a three year best at 3.86. How differently would you be looking at him right now if his ERA was 3.86 versus his actual mark of 5.15?).

Here are the facts as I see them.

Burnett has thrown at least 185 innings each of the past four years.
His strikeout total the last five years is the 10th best in baseball.
In 2011 his K/9 and BB/9 rates were smack on his career marks.
His left on base percentage was 70.0 percent (career 71.4).
His GB/FB ratio was 1.52 (career 1.50).
His line drive rate was 18.5 percent (career 18.4).

I don’t know about you, but that certainly doesn’t sound like a guy who should have had a 5.15 ERA. In fact, it sounds much more like the guy who owns a career mark of 4.10. Bid accordingly on draft day 0 i.e. think of the 2009 version (13-9, 4.04 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 195 Ks) – as Burnett is likely to offer a solid return on investment because you will likely be able to add him for relative peanuts when others at the draft are starting to swig their beer and make plans to hit the bar scene (to see how little love that Burnett is getting, take a look at Fleaflicker).

Don’t forget to pick up a copy of the 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Marco Scutaro

Some players get little respect. You know, they are the “glue” type players that you roster in the middle to late rounds that end up filling up the stat sheet rather nicely by the time that October rolls around even if no one really batted an eye when you called out their name at the draft table. One of those guys is Marco Scutaro. He’s never someone you target, and most of the time when you call out his name it’s merely because there really aren’t any better options out there, but there are certainly worse guys to target late as a middle infield option than the Rockies new second baseman.

Let me begin right where I just left off. Scutaro, who played just two games at second last season but has played regularly there during his big league career, will be the Rockies’ starting second baseman in 2012 (thanks Troy Tulowitzki). This is great news for Scutaro because he will be able to add second base to his shortstop qualification. When you’re thinking about grabbing a guy in the later rounds having positional flexibility like this is just another level of added value. You don’t have to take two players as a backup to your second baseman and shortstop, you can simply add a guy Scutaro to give you some depth.

Second, one of the keys with Scutaro is that he will be the Rockies new second baseman. Coors Field doesn’t play like it once did now that they humidor the hell out of the baseballs up there (some conspiracy theorists still maintain that the Rockies use a different set of “dead” baseball’s when the visiting team is at-bat), but at the same time it’s still a great place for a hitter to call home. Scutaro isn’t a home run hitter, his two best seasons are 11 and 12, but that misses the point. Scutaro is a strong extra base hitter who has rapped out 30 doubles in three seasons in his career while averaging 33 the past three years. The last three years Coors has been the best park in the NL for doubles, 22 percent greater than the league average park according to Park Indices. Scutaro should be hitting plenty of two baggers this season.

Scutaro has hit .270 for his career, an over his last three years he has hit at least .275 each time. He’s a good bet to keep that up in 2012, not just because of his home yard, but because of his approach. For his career Scutaro owns a 0.80 BB/K mark, well above the big league average of about 0.50, and the last time that number dipped below 0.75 for Scutaro was when George Bush Jr. was president (2004). He won’t damage your teams’ batting average and he has at least an even shot of actually helping in the category.

Since he became an every day player in 2008, Scutaro has been a solid performer. Even including his effort last season in which he was only able to accrue 395 at-bats, here is what an average 5×5 season has looked like for Scutaro since 2008: .280-9-58-82-8. Again, that’s nothing special, but those are replacement level stuff that you can get on the cheap at the draft table. Would you rather roster guys like Zack Cozart or Jason Bartlett late? I know I wouldn’t.

Scutaro doesn’t do anything that stands out, but I wouldn’t be drafting Scutaro to win me a league. I’d be drafting Scutaro as a player who, given 500 at-bats, is going to be a great return on my investment. He’ll qualify at both middle infield spots, likely hit at least .280, score a bunch of runs, and knock in enough to be worthy of strong consideration in deep mixed leagues as a middle infielder. Don’t forget about the little fella when your draft moves into the 20′s – Scutaro is someone you can fill your roster out with on the cheap who will end up providing you more than passable numbers if he can stay healthy.

Click here to get your copy of the 2012 BBGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide.

By Ray Flowers

Geezers in the Outfield: Damon, Ibanez, Matsui

Johnny Damon, Raul Ibanez and Hideki Matsui have all been solid performers for years (each was a fantasy star at one point, even if you’ve forgotten because it was a while ago). Do any of the three enough residual skill to be of use in the fantasy game in 2012 as anything other than single league options (NL or AL Only)? That’s what we’re going to investigate.

Damon (.261-16-73-79-19) is one of the more stable performers in the history of the game. Really. Damon has appeared in 140 games in 16-straight years to tie Hank Aaron, Brooks Robinson and Pete Rose for the longest such run in big league history. He’s also had 11 seasons of at least 90 runs scored and 15 steals, the third most such seasons in history. Those aren’t phenomenal numbers, but they have long made him a draft day target after the bigger names were taken. However, Damon has seen his average dip the last three years (.303, .282, .271 and .261) as his bat speed slips, and last year was the first time since 1998 that he posted a BB/K rate under 0.70 (it was 0.55). His GB/FB ratio was pretty standard fair for him at 1.08 (career 1.25), and his line drive mark of 20.2 percent was right on his career rate of 20 percent, so it’s not like he’s totally lost it at the dish. Damon even upped his steals mark to 19 after totaling just 23 in 2009-10. Damon can still produce, an if given 500+ at-bats he still seems capable of replicating the fantasy line he posted last season (though I’d expect the steals to dip even if his bat remained on track).

Ibanez (.245-20-84-65) looked lost last April hitting .161 with a homer before rebounding in May to hit .315 with seven homers. Alas, his production was all over the place as he had three months with an OPS under .600 last year, and that’s just unacceptable. He was also a complete liability against left-handed pitching with a .211/.232/.353 line that made him look like a good hitting pitcher. Yeah, it was pretty brutal. He also hit a mere .210 with a .577 OPS on the road, so it appears that he is in desperate need of an offensive ballpark if he want’s to stave off Father Time for another year. To be fair did record 20 homers and 84 RBI, the 7th straight year he has hit at least 16 homers with 83 RBI, but those numbers were merely the result of playing everyday in a strong lineup in Philly. Ibanez posted an 18.4 K-rate which isn’t awful, but it was his second worst numbers since 1998. He also posted his lowest walk rate since that 1998 season, and the result was a 0.31 BB/K mark that was a drastic fall from his career mark of 0.54. Ibanez also hit more balls into the ground than at any point in his career (46 percent) as his fly ball rate dipped to 35.0 percent, it’s lowest mark since 2005. Can Ibanez still drive in a run? Certainly. But with his declining skill set, and the fact that he will be 40 years old on 1972, any slump at all will likely lead to him being replaced by a younger player up the upswing, not to mention the fact that even in a best case scenario he may be forced into a platoon.

Matsui (.251-12-72-56) can no longer play the field, his knees can’t take the pounding, so his outlook is even more limited than the other two. When he hit just .209 in the first half with a .617 OPS for the A’s, many an epitaph was written for his tombstone. Seemingly finding the fountain of youth, Matsui rebounded to hit a whopping .369 with 22 RBI in July to propel him to a .295 average and 38 RBI over his last 65 games. While that was a great improvement on the first half, those are still middling numbers for a DH. Matsui has failed to hit .275 for three years running, an at this point 20 homers might be a reach as well. Matsui is coming off his career worst HR/F ratio mark of 7.4 percent (career 12.6), and twice in four years that number has been in the single digits. He also hit more grounders last season than he has in three years, and that’s not going to help him reach the seats. Matsui also took fewer walks than he had since 2005, and his K-rate last season was a percentage point above his career rate. If he was 27 years old the outlook wouldn’t be dire, but as a 37 year old, the tires have almost been worn down to the tube. Given that he has appeared in only 46 games in the field the last four years, and that his bat is clearly slowing, it’s nearly impossible to think he’ll be able to appreciably improve upon last years effort.

You can find out where all of the three geezers rank in terms of their projected draft position at Fleaflicker and you can find out how I rank all three players if you purchase the BaseballGuys 2012 Fantasy Draft Guide.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Adam Dunn

“Any list of the biggest failures in 2011 has to start with Adam Dunn (.159-11-42 in 496 at-bats. I still can’t believe he was that atrocious). However, a teammate of Dunn’s also has to be in the top-10 [Alex Rios]…” That was my opening to my Alex Rios Player Profile from back in November of 2011. Today I’ll complete that thought by discussing the most pathetic performer of 2011 – Mr. Adam Dunn.

Some history.

From 2004-2010 Dunn hit at least 38 homers each year. Only one man in history has a run of more than 7-straight years of hitting 38 or more homers each season. It’s not Babe Ruth who tied with Dunn at seven (1926-32), or Barry Bonds who never did it more than five years in a row (2000-04). The answer to this riddle is actually Rafael Palmeiro (1995-2003).

From 2004-10 Dunn had at least 92 RBI each year. That’s well short of the record of 13-straight such seasons held by Lou Gehrig, Jimmie Foxx and Alex Rodriguez. Still, only five men were able to hit that total each year from 2004-10: Albert Pujols, Arod, Mark Teixeira, Miguel Cabrera and Dunn.

From 2004-10 Dunn scored at least 79 runs each season. Only six others joined Dunn in that group: Bobby Abreu, Teixeira, Pujols, Cabrera, Derek Jeter and Johnny Damon.

All told, how many big leaguer posted a line of 38 homers, 92 RBI and 79 runs scored each year from 2004-10? The answer is one – Adam Dunn.

So what the hell happened in 2011 to the then 32 year old slugger? Some thoughts.

Maybe he wasn’t totally comfortable in his new home in Chicago?

Maybe the pressure of a big money deal got to him (4-years, $56 million)?

Maybe he lost confidence when he struggled?

Maybe health woes, like his appendicitis, ruined his timing?

Maybe he didn’t like being the DH? He hit mere .176 with a. 621 OPS in 81 such games (to be honest though, those numbers were better than his overall totals of .159 and .569).

Let’s get past the maybe’s and look at the raw data.

As I’ve laid out, there wasn’t a more consistent power hitter in the game than Dunn. At 32 years of age, in a ballpark that benefits hitters, there was zero reason to expect a collapse in 2011. In fact, you’d be hard pressed to roll the calendar back 12 months and find anyone who had a bad thing to say about Dunn as most expected the move to Chicago to lead to at least, at the very worst, a replication, of his 2010 effort (.260-38-103-85). What happened then?

Did he walk less than normal? Nope. His 15.1 percent walk rate was pretty much a match for his 16.2 percent career rate.

Did he strike out more than normal? Heck yes he did. A career 27.6 K rate is terrible, but last season that number grew to epic proportions as it ended up at 35.7 percent. That was only the second time in his career that the mark was over 29 percent.

Did his hit type change? Not if you judge him by his GB/FB rate which was 0.68, a near identical match to his career rate of 0.71 percent. As for his line drive rate it was 20.0 percent. Not only was that mark his third best since 2003, it was also above his 19.6 career rate. So he hit as many grounders, liners and fly balls as normal. Wait, what? I know, it makes no sense does it? Dunn was pretty much the same hitter as always in terms of these three categories. The real issue though was two-fold. (1) His BABIP shrunk to a career worst .240 (career .292). 2011 was only the second time since 2004 that his BABIP mark was under .276. Given a career norm in the line drive category, that dip in BABIP really isn’t explainable, at least not simply (a loss of bat speed, bad luck, etc.). (2) For each season from 2003-10, Dunn had produced a HR/F ratio of 20.8 percent. In 2011 that number dropped to 9.6 percent. To state is another way, Dunn went from being elite to league average overnight. That just doesn’t happen.

Given the totality of his career, his age, and his home ballpark, I find it nearly impossible to predict another outage in 2012. The question is, how much will Dunn bounce back? Admittedly I’m a big fan of the Big Donkey, but I think the data leads to that point of view. If I had to put a floor on his production I’d think 2002 (.249-26-71-84). However, I’m not ruling out a return to 35-90-90 levels because I really cannot explain what the hell went wrong in 2011. Maybe he ticked off a practitioner of the dark arts who put a whammy on him. I’m not going to draft Dunn as my starter at first base, but if falls out of the top-20 at first base, like he’s currently ranked at Fleaflicker, then sign up Mr. Dunn for my squad.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Edwin Jackson

Edwin Jackson thought he would strike it rich this offseason. He didn’t. Instead of the five year deal he was hoping for he decided to sign a 1-year deal, for about $10 million, with the Nationals. What did the team in the nations capitol get for all that money?

E. Jackson’s first name might as well be “Enigma.” On any given day he could twirl a no-hitter flashing elite stuff. On another day he might walk six batters and fail to escape the third inning. Some times he is as boring as boring gets giving up three runs and nine base runners in 5.1 innings. This is the main issue with Edwin Jackson – there’s simply no way to know how he will perform in any given outing. He doesn’t know. His team doesn’t know. His fantasy owners never know. Given that uncertainty, what should we make of Jackson in the fantasy game? Some facts with Jackson for you to consider.

Jackson has won at least 10 games each of the past four years while averaging 12 wins a year. His career record is still as boring as it gets though as he is 60-60.

Jackson has hit at least 183.1 innings each of the past four years twice going over 200-innings (he fell just short last year with 199.2 innings pitched). Give him his due here – he is pretty durable.

Jackson has a high of 181 strikeouts in a season, but he has only one other season with 150 punchouts (161 in 2009 as he fell short last year with 148 Ks). His career K/9 mark is 6.68 an only twice in his career, if you remove his 22 innings in his first season, has he posted a mark of 7.00.

Jackson owns a 4.46 ERA in his career. Over the last four years he has as many seasons with an ERA over 4.40 – two – as he does below that mark (3.62 in 2009 and 3.79 last year).

Jackson has a 1.48 WHIP for his career. Only twice in the last eight years has he posted a mark under 1.40 (1.26 in 2009 and 1.39 in 2010).

Prior to the All-Star break last season Jackson posted a 4.30 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. In the 2nd half his ERA improved substantially to 3.19, but his WHIP was still poor at 1.43.

His career BABIP is .311.

His career LOB percentage is 71.6 percent.

Though just 28 years old, Jackson has never been able to live up to the talent in his arm. Be it because of a lack of command, a lack of consistency, or simply an inability to focus, Jackson tantalizes every year but in the end the result is almost always disappointing (check out the rankings at Fealflicker where it’s obvious that there is still come convincing needed in the fantasy game). Jackson is a fine late round target in mixed leagues because there is a 15 win, 180 K, 3.50 ERA season in his arm. At the same time, you’re just as likely to get a replacement level season from E-Jax as you are to be excited about adding him to your squad. Think about it. Here are his career numbers again:

4.46 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 6.68 K/9, 1.82 K/BB, .311 BABIP, 71.6 LOB%

The only number in that group that is even league average is is the left on base mark, and it’s only a percentage point above the league average.

There may be no better example of an “average” performer on the hill than Jackson, even if his arm says that there is talent here to be an All-Star.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Fowler vs. Jackson

I asked a simple question Wednesday on the BaseballGuys’ Twitter Page – for 2012, would you rather have Austin Jackson or Dexter Fowler. To my surprise the answer was Jackson with about 70 percent of the vote. Am I in the wrong in thinking that Fowler will be the better fantasy performer in 2012 (you can find my rankings of both outfielders in the BBGuys 2012 Draft Guide)? Here are my thoughts on this battle royale.

2011 fantasy stats:

Fowler: .266-5-45-84-12 in 481 at-bats

Jackson: .249-10-45-90-22 in 591 at-bats

If we allow Fowler another 110 at-bats to match Jackson’s total, an assume he would continue to perform at the same rate he flashed over 481 at-bats, his line would end up being .266-6-55-103-15. All of a sudden that gap between the two shrinks, it not disappears, does it not? Moreover, by “non-fantasy measures,” Fowler was easily the better performer last season.

Fowler had a .363 OBP, .432 SLG and .796 OPS
Jackson had a .317 OBP, .374 SLG and .690 OPS

So can you see why I was so shocked that Jackson, resoundingly, was the choice amongst my Twitter followers. Fowler bettered Jackson last year in the following categories: doubles, triples, walks, AVG/OBP/SLG. Fowler also tied Jackson in RBI and scored just six fewer runs in 28 fewer games played. So tell me folks, what is the big draw with Jackson? I bet it has more to do with his team than it does with Jackson.

The Tigers will boast the top power hitting duo in baseball in Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder. I don’t think anyone is going to dispute that fact. If those two guys do their normal thing in the #3 and #4 slots in the lineup, whoever on the Tigers is asked to fill the leadoff role and hit in the second hole are bound to score a ton of runs. That’s sound reasoning. It’s also a pretty strong bet that Jackson will hit atop the Tigers’ order, not because he should hit there mind you, but because they don’t really have a better option (their entire starting lineup may not steal more bases than Michael Bourn). Keep this in mind. Jackson is a strikeout machine. You can live with that when a guy is hitting 30 homers, but when he’s batting at the top of the order and has 14 homers in his career that guy shouldn’t be striking out in more than a quarter of all of his at-bats. Due mostly to that K-rate, Jackson will have a very difficult time reaching the .293 batting average he posted in 2010 (that mark was almost entirely the result of his major league leading, an unsustainable, .396 BABIP. Predictably that mark regressed to .340 last season and with it his batting average receded). Not only does the fact that he may struggle to hit .271, his career average, weigh Jackson down, you should also pay attention to what it does to his ability to get on base. Through two seasons Jackson has n OBP of .331 a mere five points above the big league average of .326. Simply put, Jackson doesn’t have the skills to hit at the top of anyone’s batting order.

On the other hand, Fowler does possess the skills to bat leadoff. Not only does he have a substantially better OBP (career .355), Fowler also has ample speed (even though he swiped only 25 bags the last two years he stole 27 bases in 2009). Fowler also showed marked improvement in the second half last season after his demotion to the minors as he hit .288 with a .880 OPS over his last 68 games. Jackson will never post an .880 OPS. Fowler also got on base at a .381 clip in the second half leading to 51 runs scored over 68 games. Add in that he’s in the best shape of his life after training this offseason with Jason Giambi and Troy Tulowitzki, an I’m certainly taking Dexter Fowler over Austin Jackson on draft day.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Ian Kennedy

Ian Kennedy tied for the NL lead last year with 21 victories. You know that I’m not a huge fan of win-loss records when it comes to defining a pitcher, but when a guy goes 21-4 – Clayton Kershaw went 21-5 – you have to pay attention. So why is it that some fantasy baseball players are taking Daniel Hudson before they look Ian Kennedy’s way  at the draft table in 2012? That’s a very good question. Perhaps they think, as I will argue, that Kennedy has little chance of replicating his 2011 effort.

Some facts about Kennedy’s 2011 season.

Kennedy tied for the NL lead in wins.

Kennedy posted a 2.88 ERA. Only seven pitchers in the NL bettered that mark.

Kennedy struck out 198 batters. Only seven NL pitchers had more.

Kennedy posted a 1.08 WHIP. Only five NL hurlers had a better mark.

Kennedy had a .227 BAA. Only four NL hurlers were tougher to hit.

Kennedy tossed 222 innings. Only four NL hurlers threw more innings.

All of that certainly makes Kennedy seem like an elite hurler, does it not?

The strikeouts are legit. Over the last two years his K/9 mark has been 7.79 and 8.03. When a pitcher does that in more than 400-innings I’m buying it.
One of the main keys to his surge from solid to dominating last year was the fact that he stopped beating himself. Over his first 253.2 big league innings he walked 3.80 batters per nine innings, about a half batter above the big league average. Last year he chopped that number down like a lumberjack whacking weeds as his BB/9 mark shrank to 2.23. It’s hard to know if we should trust his work last season completely, an in truth, I don’t. Pitchers just don’t cut a batter from their walk rate overnight (his rate was 3.25 in 2010). I wouldn’t be surprised to see him give back some of those gains. Moreover, I’d feel more comfortable expecting a BB/9 mark closer to his 2010 rate than his mark from 2011.

Kennedy is as run of the mill as it gets when we talk about GB/FB ratios. In fact, he’s never posted a league average mark of 1.10 (last year’s 0.98 rate was a career best). I will give Kennedy credit for cutting the fly ball rate a bit last year, he was three percentage points below his career norm, but unfortunately most of those batted balls ended up as line drives instead of ground balls. If he keeps that trend up in 2012 you’d have to think he would allow more hits than he did last season. In addition, his left on base percentage of 79.2 percent was huge (it was the 9th highest mark in baseball). It was four percent better than his rate from 2010 and about nine percentage points clear of the league average. That doesn’t speak to a repeat effort in the ERA column. Neither does his xFIP which places his ERA last season at 3.50. All of this data paints a pitcher who had a perfect storm last season which helped to maximize hie performance.

What do I think about Kennedy? I think he will be a solid pitcher in 2012. As I wrote above, the strikeouts are legit, an if he stays healthy long enough to toss 200-innings he’ll be a benefit in that category. I worry about his ability to keep his ratios as low as they were last season given the drastic improvement he made in the walk column, the fact that his LOB% was so high and that his GB/FB ratio was so mediocre. If you’re drafting Kennedy in 2012 make sure your expectations are reasonable. If you roster him thinking he will be a top-30 starter you have a good chance that your expectations will be met. If you think he’s a top-15 arm you’ll more than likely end up a bit disappointed in the Diamondbacks’ righty.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Cliff Pennington

Often times we find ourselves spending all our time talking and thinking about the elite players. People always want to know who to take in the first round or when they should grab their ace on draft day.  At the same time, people rarely talk about those glue guys that often make the difference between winning and losing. Think back to the draft table in 2011. How many people cared when they called out the names of Asdrubal Cabrera, Alex Gordon and Jhonny Peralta? Yet when all was said and done all three had impressive seasons that helped many a squad to a championship. Today I’ll highlight one of those players who you might want to think about late in drafts (especially in mixed leagues that use the corner and middle infield positions).

Cliff Pennington, for those of you who don’t know, plays shortstop for the Athletics, you know, that green and yellow team on the west coast that seemingly trades away it’s best players year after year. A decent little ballplayer, Pennington has a couple of things going for him. First, no one really cares about him. That means he will be extremely cheap to add to your squad on draft day. He’ll also likely make a solid addition if your starter at shortstop comes down with an injury early in the year forcing you to hit the waiver-wire looking for a warm body. Second, Pennington steals bases. He’s not going to push Jose Reyes for the positional lead in steals but he’s swiped 43 bases the last two years, a total only five other shortstops can better (Reyes 69, Elvis Andrus 69, Erick Aybar 52, Hanley Ramirez 52 and Jimmy Rollins 47). In an AL-only league, or a 15 team mixed league, 20+ steals from a middle infielder is a decent addition to any club.

Now I’m not going to sit here and blow soft kisses to you to hide the fact that Pennington isn’t exactly an offensive powerhouse. The owner of 18 career homers, Pennington has nonetheless knocked in an average of 51 runs the past two seasons while scoring an average of 61 runs a campaign. Those numbers are all blah, I agree, but when combined they’re really not that bad a set. Guess how many shortstops, the past two years, have scored 120 runs, knocked in 100 and stolen 40 bases? Rather shockingly the answer is just four: Hanley Ramirez, Jimmy Rollins, Ian Desmond and Pennington.

While consistent playing time helps with the counting numbers (Pennington has appeared in an average of 152 games the past two years), it will also allow his less than impressive batting average to drag your club down. A .259 career hitter, Cliff has hit .250 and .264 the last two years. There is some hope for a potential run at .280. After all, Pennington does own an impressive 22.1 percent line drive rate. One would expect a pretty high BABIP given that impressive LD-rate, but instead Pennington owns a .310 career mark that is only .010 points above a league average number. As we all should know by now, players set their own benchmarks in this respect, so while it seems like Pennington should post a higher BABIP maybe he won’t though his .342 mark from 2009 does give some hope. Toss in a 0.47 BB/K mark for his career though and the prospects of any substantial batting growth should be concerned a bit of a long-shot.

Pennington is not going to pull an Asdrubal Cabrera in 2012. He’s not going to morph into a difference maker, but if he shows only some slight improvement, let’s say to the .270-10-60-70-20 range, he could be an extremely useful up the middle depth play in deep mixed leagues. Don’t reach on Pennington at any point in your draft, but when you’re sitting there in the 25th round wondering whose name you should call out consider the shortstop of the Oakland Athletics.

By Ray Flowers