Player Profile: Jacoby Ellsbury

Jacoby Ellsbury of the Red Sox is one of the those players that I term “tipping point” guys. If he “tips” in the right direction you might get a first round talent at a third round cost. If he “tips” in the wrong direction you might end up spending a third round selection on a guy who will be lucky to give you 10th round value in 2013. What are my expectations with Ellsbury? Let’s delve into the player before I render my final thoughts (if you are unaware, I rostered Ellsbury for a very reasonable $24 in the recently conducted AL LABR Draft).

In 2008 Ellsbury hit .280, stole 50 bags and scored 98 runs.
In 2009 Ellsbury hit .301, stole 70 bags and scored 94 runs.
In 2010 he was injured and played just 18 games.
In 2011 he hit .321, stole 39 bases and scored 119 times.
In 2012 he was injured and played just 74 games.

Those are the facts. Here are some more.

In 2008-09 Ellsbury averaged 60 steals a season.
In 2010 and 2012 he was an injured plagued disaster.
In 2011 he was a superstar who also hit 32 homers and drove in 105 runs.

Which player is Ellsbury? Is he the guy who averaged 60 steals in 2008-09 or the one that has stolen 60 bases the past three seasons? Is he the guy who hit 32 homers in 2011 or the guy who has hit 24 homers over the other five seasons of his career? See what I mean by “tipping point?”

I do not believe that Ellsbury will return to the 50 steal level in 2013. It’s possible, he’s obviously been there before, but he’s just not run that much the past three years or, obviously, been able to stay healthy long enough to really let her rip. Running excessively on the base paths puts a tremendous strain on the body. I’m sure the Red Sox won’t tell him to stop running – there’s no red light in his future – but they need him on the field so doesn’t it make sense that they might pull back on the reigns a bit with Ellsbury to make sure he’s able to stay on the field? I’d be thinking 40 steals not 50 or 60.

Is Ellsbury a 32 homer man? There’s no way in heck he is. So many reasons why.

(1) No one ever thought he would develop into a 30 homer bat.

(2) The 32 homers he hit in 660 at-bats equate to one homer every 20.5 at-bats. In the other 1,575 at-bats he’s racked up he’s gone deep 24 times which equates to one homer every 65.6 at-bats. Put another way, Ellsbury has one season with more than nine homers. That’s right, he has one double-digit homer season in his career.

(3) For his career Ellsbury owns a 32 percent fly ball rate. In 2011, his huge homer season, that number was 35 percent, a very modest increase that only allowed him to reach the league average level. The reason that his homer total jumped so dramatically can be directly seen in his HR/F ratio. For his career Ellsbury has an 8.8 percent mark. In 2011 he posted a 16.7 percent mark. If we add together his rate from 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2012 we’d end up with 16.3 percent (think about that for a moment). If you think he’s a 30 homer bat you’re wrong. I’d even go further and say that I’d be surprised if he hit more than 20 homers in a healthy full season moving forward.

Ellsbury should be a solid batting average source. In his only two seasons of 600 at-bats he’s hit .301 and .321, and for his career he owns a .297 batting average. Given his speed and hitting style, his 1.51 career GB/FB ratio suggests that he hits the ball on the line or the ground more often than not, it’s fair to posit with health that his average will be strong in 2013.

So where does all of that leave us?

We’ve seen his steals totals regress.
It’s easy to see that his one huge homer season looks very flukish.
He’s failed to play half of the games in two of the last three seasons.
And you want to make him a second or third round selection this year?

I know the allure of Ellsbury is acute. He plays for the Red Sox and was a top-10 performer in 2011 (here’s the full 5×5 fantasy line put together: .321-32-105-119-39). Do you know how many seasons in the 21st century can match his ’11 effort? The answer is none. No one else has done that. In fact, no other player in the history of baseball can match all five of those numbers in one season. Besides being floored by that admission, the natural point of outgrowth is this – Ellsbury is never going to do it again.

Personally, I’m never going to draft Ellsbury in 2013 in a snake draft, as he will simply cost too much (as I noted above though, if the price falls in an auction draft, I would be interested). I’m not saying he will be a failure, and I’m not saying he will be a wasted pick if you do call out his name on draft day. My point is merely that I see a guy who has already had his career best effort. I see a guy who will never hit 32 homers again. I see a guy who will never steal 70 bases again. I see a guy who has failed to play 75 games in two of three years. Ellsbury might be a fantasy star in 2013 but if he is it won’t be on my fantasy team.

* Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Max Scherzer

Max Scherzer is a flame thrower for the Tigers who has had a difficult time early in his career flashing start to start consistency. That somewhat uneven effort has caused many to not look closely enough at his dynamic right wing. In what follows I’ll hope to be able to make the point that given his draft day cost that he is a hurler you should be targeting for inclusion on your fantasy squad (he’s barely being taken inside the top-20 at the starting pitching position).

REVIEW: 2008-09

Scherzer started out his big league career with the D’backs and over two seasons he was 9-15 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. He was a huge K arm though with an average of 9.54 punchouts per nine innings leading to a solid 2.86 K/BB ratio.

REVIEW: 2010

Max posted a career best set of ratios in 2010 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Oddly, his strikeout ratio dipped to 8.46 per nine though his walk rate continued to dwindle (3.22 per nine after seasons of 3.38 and 3.33).

REVIEW: 2011-12

This is when things started to take off for Scherzer. He won 31 games, more about that below, and he struck out an average of 9.53 batters per nine innings while dropping his walk rate to 2.73 per nine allowing his K/BB ratio to improve to an impressive level of 3.49 (that mark is 16th in baseball among hurlers who tossed 325 innings.).

THE 2012 RUN

In April last year Scherzer went 1-3 with a 7.77 ERA and 2.05 WHIP as batters hit an unconscionable .356 off him. Obviously the regression monster showed his face the rest of the season, and over the final five months of the year he was very, very good. Not just that, he was actually excellent.

Over his final 27 starts of 2012 Scherzer went 15-4, posted a 3.14 ERA, had a 1.16 WHIP, a 11.2 K/9 mark an a 4.34 K/BB ratio. Let’s compare that to the work of Justin Verlander last season.

Verlander: 17-8 (.680 WIN%), 9.0 K/9, 3.98 K/BB, 2.64 ERA, 1.06 WHIP
Scherzer: 15-4 (.789 Win%), 11.2 K/9, 4.34 K/BB, 3.14 ERA, 1.16 WHIP

Amazing how similar the two were in overall value if you remove April from Scherzer’s line, isn’t it?

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THE STRIKEOUT

Scherzer isn’t just a dominating K arm, he’s a historically impressive one. Last season Scherzer struck out 231 batters in 187.2 innings. Since he failed to throw even 190 innings the K total hasn’t been viewed by many in the manner it should be cause he didn’t push 250 Ks. So here’s some context to help out.

(1) Only one man in baseball had more punchouts, and that was his teammate Justin Verlander who had 239 in 238.1 innings, or, 50.2 more innings pitched than Mad Max (I told myself I wasn’t going to use that term in this piece but I just couldn’t help myself). Fifty more innings than Scherzer folks. Think about that for a brief moment before moving on to #2.

(2) Scherzer’s K/9 mark was 11.08, the best in baseball. No one else even struck out 10.50 per nine (Yu Darvish was second at 10.40).

(3) Scherzer’s K/9 mark of 11.08 was historically impressive. Among all pitchers who have ever thrown 162 innings in a season, the number of innings needed to qualify for the ERA title, that 11.08 number has only been bettered 18 times – ever (the single season record is 13.41 by Randy Johnson in 2001 when he struck out 372 batters in 249.2 innings).

(4) Scherzer has thrown 804.2 innings in his career and has posted a 9.27 strikeout per nine mark. Among pitchers who have thrown 800 innings in their career that K/9 mark sits at 11th all-time. Eleventh.

The fact is that Scherzer is as dominating a strikeout arm as you are going to find among starting pitchers.

WINS

You all know my thoughts on wins, I don’t pay them much mind since so much goes into them beyond what the pitcher can control, but facts are facts, and the last two years Scherzer has been a big winner. The last two years Scherzer has won 31 games. That total of 31 wins is the 9th best mark in baseball (tied with James Shields, Zack Greinke and Cole Hamels). Max is also one of just 10 hurlers who have won 15 games in each of the past two years.

OUTLOOK

Scherzer is as dominating an arm as there in baseball among starting hurlers. Yes there are some concerns about his ability to bring it start after start, but as I noted above he was pretty much nails after a rough April last year. If he can lock things in for six months, and stay healthy (the team is bringing him along slowly this spring), there’s a very real chance that he could post numbers that can rival those of his more celebrated rotation mate at a greatly reduced cost. Without question the risk is higher with Scherzer than Verlander, but given the draft day cost Scherzer profiles as the arm I would rather target in 2013.

• Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Brandon Belt

In the fantasy game, if a first baseman hit 16 homers and stole 15 bases, you’d be interested right? Well it turns out those are the numbers posted by the Giants’ Brandon Belt during his two seasons in San Francisco. Due to the way he has been utilized by the team in those two seasons he’s only been able to accrue 598 at-bats meaning his 16/15 effort has pretty much been accomplished in a season worth of playing time. What can the youngster bring to the field this season? Will the Giants play him on a daily basis? Does he have a shot to go 15/15 making him a legit option to finish the year as a top-12 first sacker. To the digging we go.

How many first basemen went 15/15 in 2012? The answer is one – Paul Goldschmidt. Over the past five years how many seasons of 15/15 have been produced by a first baseman? The answer is four – Goldschmidt, Albert Pujols, Joey Votto and Lance Berkman. Clearly the ability to steal a base is pretty foreign to the first base position. That makes Belt an intriguing addition to a fantasy club. In addition to his 15 steals he’s only been caught four times for a solid 79 percent success rate. It’s hard to count on 15 steals from Belt, but if he plays every day double-digit thefts should happen.

‘But Ray, the Giants haven’t been playing Belt everyday. Why is that?’

First, the Giants have been a championship caliber team the past few years as you might be aware, so the club hasn’t wanted to give away at-bats to a youngster merely because he had talent. Second, Belt has a few holes in his game that I will address in a second. Third, Bruce Bochy, the Giants’ managers, prefers to go with capable veterans if he has them at his disposal. Heading into 2013 the Giants don’t have a veteran option to play first base, it appears that Brett Pill could function as the backup when healthy (he’ll likely miss the start of the season with a knee issue that required surgery), so it’s really Belt’s job to lose.

Belt hit .225 as a rookie but he upped that mark to .275 last season as he showed marked improvement in the second half when he hit .293 over the course of 72 games. Belt knows how to take a walk, his 11.4 percent walk rate last season is solid, so that should help him to maintain his average. He’s also done a great job with a 22.1 percent line drive rate with his .328 BABIP mark reflecting that of hard hit balls. However, as we know, both of those marks are elevated (19-20 and .290-.300 are usually the big league averages). Players can hold on to those marks, they set their own baselines as we also know, but they are still big numbers even though Belt posted a .392 BABIP and 27.1 percent line drive rate in the minors in 2011. Maybe Belt is one of those players who will settle in at a higher level? We need more data to formulate a concrete answer.

What we do know is that he strikes out a lot. In the minors in 2011 Belt struck out 48 times in 53 games. He then cam to the big leagues and struck out 57 times in 63 games. Last season he knocked a bit off that K-rate, down to 106 in 145 games, but 106 punchouts in 411 at-bats is a poor 22.5 percent K-rate. That level of whiffs could certainly have a detrimental effect on his batting average production.

What kind of power does Belt have? As a left-hander at AT&T Park, his home ball yard does him no favors as Park Indices the last three years tell us that lefties have a mark of 63 in the homer column. That’s 37 percent below the NL average. It’s a terrible place for left-handed power hitters to play. Not surprisingly, Belt has a total of 16 homers in 598 at-bats even though most talent evaluators this this is a 25 homer bat. For his brief career Belt owns a fly ball rate of 39 percent an a fly ball rate of nine percent. Both of those marks are pretty much league average. Oddly, Belt has been a better hitter at home during his career (.289/.368/.465), much better in fact than he has been on the road (.232/.321/.376).

Some other tidbits.

Belt swung at more pitches in the strike zone last season than the year before (many in the Giants’ organization want Belt to keep his eye at the dish while augmenting that with a little more aggression at times). Belt pushed his swinging mark at pitches inside the strike zone from 73 to 77 percent in year two as he seemed to embrace the clubs direction. Unfortunately his contact rate fell from 77 to 74 percent, pretty much negating the improvements first measure.

Belt is intriguing. He’s a young fella, he’ll turn 25 in late April, and as a former college star with a lot of hype there’s a solid chance that his 2013 effort becomes a memorable one (not to mention that he has flat out killed it at the dish this spring, even if he’s dealing with a back issue). Given his draft day cost, Belt would seem to be a solid option as a corner infield play in mixed leagues, even if his power and average don’t take the next step (thank the wheels). The Giants finally appear likely to play him on a daily basis, and with the growth he flashed in the second half the trends are encouraging, even if his home ball park might mute his overall production at the dish a wee bit.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Josh Willingham

Last season only two outfielders in major league baseball had more RBIs than Josh Willingham while only four outfielders hit more homers than Willingham. In retrospect it was a bad decision to view Willingham as nothing more a mid round draft pick in fantasy baseball on draft day in 2012 (many expected the move to Minnesota to erode his value somewhat). Should that view be changed, that Willingham is nothing more than a solid option for 2013, or should he be an early round draft pick because of the power that led to 35 homers and 110 RBIs last season?

By the way, Josh Hamilton (128) and Ryan Braun (112) had more RBIs. Hamilton (43), Curtis Granderson (43), Braun (41) and Ginacarlo Stanton (37) had more homers. As I also pointed out the other day in Things You Should Know, his production last season leaves a very favorable impression when his numbers are compared to those of Giancarlo Stanton.

Here is what I know.

Willingham set a career-high in homers in ’12. He had never hit 30 homers in a season before with his previous best being 29 in 2011.

Second, Willingham set a career-high with 110 RBIs. He had never reached 100 RBIs before (98 in 2011).

Third, Willingham set a career-high with 85 runs scored. His previous best was 75 back in 2007.

Part of the reason for all those counting category high’s is that he set a career best with 145 games played in his seventh season (his 615 plate appearances were also a career best). It should be noted though that this fella has failed to reach 525 at-bats in any season as a big league player (just pointing that out). Willingham has long been an injury risk and just cause he was out there a lot in 2013 shouldn’t cause you to forget that since he became a full-time player he has averaged 131 games a season meaning that over the past seven years he’s averaged a full month of missed games. That’s something you need to keep in mind when evaluating Willingham.

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As for the power, the guy does have 64 bombs the past two years, so it’s pretty hard to write his pop off as something anomalous. It’s also pretty impressive that he hit 29 homers in 2011 in Oakland and 35 in Minnesota in 2012 despite Park Factors in the home run column of 26th and 14th. Neither park is a homer haven by any means. The fact is that Josh has posted HR/F marks of 17.5 and 21.2 percent the past two years, both big numbers (career 15.5). I won’t say it’s a pace he can’t sustain though as he has proven that he can have that level of success. He also hits a lot of fly balls, over 48 percent in two of the last three seasons, so his homer total pretty much rests upon how many games played he can drag his body out onto the field.

IF Willingham can remain healthy, he still has three major issues in the fantasy game.

(1) He isn’t a very good all-around hitter. A career .261 hitter, Josh has hit better than .268 only once in seven years (.277 in 2006). He’s consistently league average. That’s all he is.

(2) He never steals a base. For his career he’s swiped 32 bases, and in four of the past five years he’s been limited to four or fewer thefts.

(3) He plays in the outfield, a position that has a lot of strong hitters, so his offensive exploits aren’t over the top good, especially with no base stealing speed and an inability to do anything other than match the league average in batting average. He’s just not an exciting player, especially when you toss into the mix his injury filled history.

I’m not saying Willingham is useless, he’s far from that. You can’t be useless if you are 11th in baseball with 64 homers the past two years and 8th in RBIs (208) – eighth (who knew?). But consider that he is tied for 55th in runs (154), is 92nd in batting average (.253) and 133rd in steals (15 tied with seven others). Toss in the fact that’s he’s failed to play 140 games in four of the past five years and that he plays outfield, and there just isn’t the pull for his services that you might think there should be. Willingham is a solid add for a club, but don’t go reaching or you will end up being disappointed (there is a chance others will view him the same way and he will fall on draft day in which case he would become a solid target – it’s all about the cost with this slugger).

• Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Hyun-Jin Ryu

Normally in my Player Profile series I like to write about players who are being over drafted because of unwarranted hype, or I focus on players that can be hidden gems of production because people are underestimating their value. Today I’ll do something different. I’ll write up a player who has never thrown an official inning as a professional baseball player in North America…

WHO AM I?

Hyun-Jin Ryu is a 25 year old left-handed hurler from Korea (he’ll be 26 on March 25th). The Dodgers believe that he’s a viable option for their starting rotation, and backing up their belief they shelled out a six year deal for $36 million to attain his services. The Dodgers also had to pay just over $25 million with the posting fee to obtain the rights to sign Ryu, so they’ve invested nearly $62 million dollars in the guy for the next six years. So who is this Ryu and why did the Dodgers spend so much money to acquire a guy who looks an awful lot like a fourth starter?

CAREER ABROAD

Ryu started his professional career in the Korean Baseball Organization in 2006. He was excellent going 18-6 with a 2.23 ERA and 204 punchouts in 201.2 innings and he became the first player to win ROY and MVP in the same season. He then tossed another 200+ innings while winning 17 games with 178 Ks in his second season. In 2008 Ryu competed in the Beijing Olympics including throwing 8.1 innings in the Gold Medal winning game for South Korea. On the downside, Ryu failed to toss 200-innings each season from 2008-2012, but he was an effective arm throughout. Here are his career KBO numbers (he was an All-Star every one of his seven seasons):

98-52, 2.80 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 8.78 K/9, 3.23 K/BB ratio over 1,269 innings
If a pitcher posts those numbers in the big leagues we have a name for him – it’s Adam Wainwright. But those numbers were compiled in the KBO, hardly a league that offers up the same level of competition as major league baseball. That leaves open the question of how his skills will translate to the majors.

* Ryu had Tommy John surgery while he was in high school, so hopefully we won’t have to be worrying about his elbow blowing up, though as we have seen pitchers sometimes do need to have the procedure done twice (think Brian Wilson and Joakim Soria).

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SCOUTING REPORT

Ryu throws his fastball anywhere from 88-92 mph. He also throws an assortment of slow, and slower, off speed pitches. Given his build, he’s not going to be on the cover of Muscle & Fitness anytime soon, and manager Don Mattingly likened him to David Wells (he’s 6’2” and reported to camp weighing a whopping 255 lbs. which raised some eyebrows, especially when he was having trouble with some of the conditioning work – more on that below). It should also be noted that the baseball is a bit slicker in North America, so that will take some time to get acclimated, and Sandy Koufax worked with Ryu a bit on alternating the grip on his curve ball a bit to help with the transition.

2013 OUTLOOK

The Dodgers have a bunch of options than can turn to in their rotation. Obviously they didn’t lavish millions on Ryu to use him out of the pen, or to send him to the minors, so you have to think he’s going to be part of the mix. My best guess on how the rotation is going to play out follows.

The Locks
Clayton Kershaw
Zack Greinke
Josh Beckett

Almost Certainly In
Hyun-Jin Ryu

Left to Battle for the 5th Spot
Ted Lilly (who I wrote about in Rounding the Bases)
Chad Billingsley
Chris Capuano
Aaron Harang

Obviously the Dodgers have a bounty of arms, and it’s very likely that once they settle on the unit that a couple of these arms will be dealt to shore up other spots on the club.

If I had to guess what type of effort Ryu will offer this season I’d say that he’s appropriately slotted as the 4th starter for the Dodgers. It remains to be seen how Ryu will adapt to American culture, the minor change with the ball and the change in training methods (he famously had some issues with his first training session in camp as he struggled to complete his work. “I realized today that in America, when they do long-distance running, they run really fast,” he said.). There is also the fact that he hasn’t thrown 200 innings since the 2007 season. I’d think that Paul Maholm‘s 2012 effort (13-11, 3.67 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 140 Ks) would be the high water mark for what your expectations should be for Ryu this year, but even that is likely being far too rosie in the old prediction department. I’d let someone else draft Ryu. It would be a big time shock if he emerged as an All-Star caliber player this season so he’s best left for the reserve rounds in mixed leagues. Don’t reach.

• Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Johan Santana

On June 30th of 2012, Mets’ starting pitcher Johan Santana had a 2.76 ERA. That means halfway through the year his ERA was under three. By the time his season ended in mid August his ERA was 4.85. What happened over the course of his last five starts was legendary (he was shutdown for good after his August 17th outing). Santana allowed at least six earned runs in each of his last five starts as he went 0-5 with a 15.63 ERA. Moreover, after throwing a career-high 134 pitches in his no-hitter on June 1st Santana dropped seven of 10 decisions with a 8.27 ERA and 1.76 WHIP while averaging less than five innings a start. Where does that leave Santana’s value heading into the 2013 season?

Johan Santana hurt his shoulder, and as we have seen repeatedly, shoulder injuries are much dicier than elbow issues. Santana’s shoulder issue precluded him from throwing a single pitch during the 2011 big league season so it shouldn’t have surprised many that he was only able to reach 117 innings last season. Did you listen when I warned against drafted Santana last February in One of Those Days where, to quote myself, I wrote the following: “Newsflash everyone. Santana will never again be the pitcher he once was.” Let me be a bit more clear. Here are Johan’s innings pitched marks the past four years: 166.2, 199, zero and 117. Three of the past four years he hasn’t reached 170 innings, and the last time he tossed 200 innings was 2008. At 33, with a wonky shoulder, what are the odds he tosses 200 innings in 2013? I know the Mets are saying that they believe he will be able to carry a full workload this year, but that’s just crazy talk if you ask me.

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So what happened last year? The Mets allowed Santana to get the first no hitter in franchise history, but they paid a dear price. Santana, as I noted above, was never the same pitcher thereafter. You can say ‘coincidence’ and maybe you are right, but the data certainly is pretty overwhelming that throwing those 134 pitches just wiped him out. Taking a look at the rest of his 2012 season, the Mets really blew it. Johan made 21 starts last season. Only seven times, one third of his outings, did he throw even 100 pitches. The Mets were very careful not to allow him to throw too many pitches, and when they limited his pitch count he was very effective. However, that one slip up throwing those 134 pitches certainly appears to have been his downfall. Does that mean the Mets will use him as a 5-6 inning guy this season? Obviously that could cut into his win potential if they chose to deploy him that way.

Some other facts to consider with Santana.

His ERA in 2012 was an 11 year high.

His WHIP was a 10 year high.

His 3.00 BB/9 mark was a nine year high.

His 2.85 K/BB ratio was his second worst mark of the past nine years.

His 1.31 HR/9 mark was the second worst mark of his career.

For the third straight year he failed to post a GB/FB ratio of 0.80. He allows an awful lot of fly balls.

Finally, everyone loves to down Tim Lincecum for his lost velocity, but I wonder how many noticed that Johan has lost almost 4.5 mph from his heyday off his heater (it was a career low 88.4 mph last year)?

Could we find Bigfoot by using an aerial drone?

On the plus side…

His 8.54 K.9 rate was a four season best, though still below his 8.83 career mark.

His 3.00 BB/9 mark was still below the league average, and his 2.85 K/BB ratio were still a half batter better than the league average. They might be bad numbers for Santana, but they are fine for a normal hurler.

His line drive rate was 24.0 percent. Even if his stuff is no longer elite that’s a huge number for a guy who owns a career mark under 20 percent.

His HR/F ratio of 11.7 percent was the second worst mark of his career, well above his 9.2 career rate. Some normalization there would help.

The Mets are putting on a brave face saying that they think Johan will be good to go for Opening Day and that he will make 30 starts this season (they had better hope they are right since he is due $25 million this year with another $25 next season unless they buy out his 2014 campaign for $5.5 million). I’m not sold. As an aging hurler with lots of miles on his arm I’m concerned. Add in the shoulder woes he’s dealt with and the historic collapse he tossed out there at the end of last season and you too should be very concerned. There’s nothing wrong with taking a chance on Johan, he still knows how to “pitch,” but with all the issues surrounding him right now he had better be a reserve round type in mixed leagues and not someone you are counting on heavily in 2013.

• Don’t forget to get your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Kris Medlen

Kris Medlen of the Braves had one of the greatest half seasons of pitching in recent memory. Medlen was so dominating in the second half of last season that if your tripled his second half ERA it would still be under 3.00 (it was 0.94). He also went 9-0 while holding batters to a .189 batting average against. Fueled by his stupendous second half run Medlen ended up outproducing the following hurlers in overall fantasy value in 2012 despite throwing only 138 innings: Jake Peavy, Mat Latos, Yovani Gallardo, Jordan Zimmerman, Cliff Lee, Adam Wainwright etc. So heading into 2013 what do we do with Medlen? How highly should you rank him? Is the sky falling because he has no shot to replicate last years effort? The answer lies somewhere in there.

THE SECOND HALF

Kris Medlen made 19 appearances, 12 starts, in the second half. He went undefeated at 9-0 allowing him to tie the big league record for most wins in a season without a loss by a starting pitcher – ever. He was also on the hill for 23 straight team victories as a starter dating back to 2010. That’s the longest streak in baseball history. He struck out 95 batters in 95.1 innings. He posted a 0.94 ERA. He walked only 14 batters while holding hitters to a .189 BAA leading to a 0.82 WHIP. Can you pitch much better than that? The answer is no.

OVERALL

Medlen made 50 appearances on the year, 12 of them starts, as he threw 138 innings. All told he was 10-1 with a save and seven holds. He also had a 1.57 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP, held batters to a .208 average, struck out 120 batters and walked just 23 batters. No pitcher in the 21st century has, other than Medlen, posted an ERA under 1.60 in a season of at least 135 innings. If we go back to 1994 only one other man joins the list – Greg Maddux in 1994 (1.56 ERA in 202 innings, and he followed that up with a 1.63 mark in 209.2 innings in 1995).

HEALTH

You might be wondering why Medlen worked extensively out of the pen early in the year before being moved into the rotation? The reason for the move, and it was planned by the Braves, was so that Medlen could work his way back into a grove after undergoing Tommy John surgery. The club thought, rightly so, that if they eased him into game action out of the pen early on they could then transition him into the rotation later in the year while keeping his innings down. A success story no doubt, but it does raise one issue. How many innings will Medlen be able to effectively throw in 2013? Here are his innings pitched marks since he became a professional (including his minor league work):

2006: 22.0
2007: 47.1
2008: 120.1
2009: 105.1
2010: 107.2
2011: 2.1
2012:151.1

Medlen has never thrown 155 innings in a season, and he’s never had back-to-back efforts of 110 innings. Are you so sure he will be able to throw 180+ effective innings in 2013?

SKILLS

Medlen struck out a solid 7.83 batters per nine innings last season. He at least matched that rate throughout his minor league career, but it should be noted that he isn’t really a dominating strikeout arm. It’s more about movement and location than it is about velocity (90.0 mph on his fastball last year). It’s more likely that his K/9 will recede slightly than grow in 2013.

Medlen walked 23 batters leading to a 1.50 BB/9 mark. In the 21st century only 12 hurlers have had multiple seasons of at least 135 innings with a BB/9 mark of 1.50 or lower. Obviously that is a phenomenal mark historically speaking, an it’s also substantially lower than Medlen’s already impressive 2.1 career mark in five minor league seasons.

It’s virtually impossible to think he’s going to post another 5.22 K/BB ratio (his minor league mark was about 4.8, another astounding mark). In a season of at least 135 innings there have only been 10 men in the 21st century with multiple seasons of a K/BB ratio of at least 5.20.

Medlen posted a 1.90 GB/FB ratio, an elite number. His ball certainly dives in the zone so it’s possible he will be able to repeat this mark, but it’s also fair to wonder if he will be able to repeat a 53 percent ground ball rate and a 28 percent fly ball rate. Also, his 18.5 percent line drive rate was just a bit below the league average of about 20 percent. It’s also fair to ponder if he will be able to replicate the .261 BABIP he threw up there last season. Because of all the grounders Medlen simply didn’t allow the long ball last season surrendering six dingers in his 138 innings. Is it reasonable to expect another season with a HR/F ratio of under six percent? I kind of doubt it, and so should you.

Medlen had an 85 percent left on base percentage last season, the highest mark in baseball (the big league average is usually right about 70 percent). There is no way he will repeat that number in 2013. None.

OUTLOOK

Medlen certainly has skills, but this is not Greg Maddux II – not after just one two-thirds of a season effort. He had one of the best runs that we’ve witnessed in a decade in the second half, but we’re talking about a total of 12 starts. Not only should there be some concern about whether or not his base skills are elite, there certainly should be at least a tinge of worry with Medlen when it comes to a potential workload increase. Not only has he never thrown 155 innings in a season, but he’s also never gone for 110 in back-to-back years and he threw 149 more innings in 2012 than 2011. If that jump in innings doesn’t cause some pause, I don’t know what will.

Can Medlen repeat what he did last season? No he cannot. Could he give 90 percent of last season? Maybe 85 percent? What about 80 percent? With the questions about workload, and the fact that you will likely have to draft Medlen as a borderline ace, I would pass on his services this season because he will almost assuredly be too pricey. That 1.57 ERA of his could double in 2013 while his WHIP is certain to climb upward, and sooner or later all the win/loss love will die out as well. Medlen has the look of a solid arm in ’13, failure is certainly not in the cards, but don’t be seduced by the power of a spectacular three month run to end last season – he’s not ever going to be that good again.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: David Ortiz

Last season David Ortiz of the Red Sox had a better batting average than Robinson Cano (.318 to .313). Ortiz had more homers than David Wright (23 to 21). Ortiz had a better OBP than Buster Posey (.415 to .408). Ortiz had a better SLG than Miguel Cabrera (.611 to .606). Despite all of that rather amazing information I’m here to tell you that I’m not at all bullish on David Ortiz for the 2013 season.

First things first. Ortiz was limited to only 90 games played last season as an Achilles issue pretty much crippled him. The Sox continue to say that Ortiz is progressing well but Achilles injuries can be very tricky to overcome, especially when the player involved is 37 years old and not exactly a bastion of physical health (I don’t think anyone would want to see Ortiz at the beach. I can unequivocally say I would like to see Kristen Kreuk at the beach though. What a beauty, maybe that’s why she was cast in the CW’s Beauty & the Beast). Here are some quotes from Ortiz just a few days ago.

“I’m not completely recovered, but I’m going to be ready to go for Opening Day,” Ortiz told WEEI.com. “… it all depends what the doctors say. They say I’m going to have my days I’m not going to feel that well. I haven’t had those yet, but I haven’t started the hard stuff. But the one thing I can tell you is I’m able to do the agility drills without any pain, which I wasn’t able to do before, so that’s a good thing.”

Do you read that and get the warm and fuzzies? I certainly don’t. I read that and in my head here is what it says.

‘My Achilles was jacked up. It’s better, but I don’t have any idea how it’s going to hold up once I really starting pushing it.’

That alone should make you weary of drafting Ortiz.

A second significant issue is his age. Dude is 37 years old.

Third, and this might be the biggest killer, he’s only eligible at the utility spot in fantasy. Do you want to lock up your UT spot with a 37 year old, injured guy who may or may not be able to help you in April?

‘But Ray, Ortiz dominated last season, you said so yourself at the start of this piece.’

Why yes I did point out some rather amazing fact with Ortiz and his 2012 performance. Let’s dig a bit deeper into that.

Ortiz hit .318, his best mark in five years and .033 points above his career average. There aren’t many 37 year olds that nearly hit .320, especially when in three of the previous four seasons they failed to hit even .275. There is also this. Here are Ortiz’ batting average marks against left-handed pitching in 2008-10: .221, .212 and .222. How did a guy who couldn’t even hit .225 against lefties for three years manage to hit .329 and .320 against them the past two years? I’ve heard of players making adjustments, but really?

Ortiz has been able to walk as many times as he has struck out that last two years, and that’s impressive. Still, for a guy who owns a 0.73 career BB/K mark doesn’t it seem a bit odd that in the past season he set a career best in K/BB (1.10 last year)? It’s also very strange to see a guy post the two lowest strikeout rates of his career at 36 and 37 years old. Has he discovered the fountain of youth?

I could continue to break down the numbers probably losing half of you to coma-like symptoms, but let me just wrap this up. Here are the reasons I don’t trust Ortiz for 2013 even if his ADP is currently sitting in the 130′s in NFBC Drafts.

(1) He’s coming off a significant Achilles injury that limited him to 90 games last season.

(2) He’s still not full recovered from an injury that first occurred in mid July of 2012. That’s seven months and he’s still not back to full health.

(3) Ortiz is 37 years old.

(4) He’s only eligible as a utility option in the fantasy game.

For me those four points weigh more heavily on my mind than anything else. I would add in that his 2012 effort is not repeatable in 2013, and with that the death knell is basically ringing for me. At the right price every player has fantasy value, but for 2013 I fear that the price for Ortiz will be prohibitive and it should preclude you from calling out his name on draft in the majority of instances.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Drew Stubbs

Drew Stubbs was dealt from the Reds to the Indians this offseason in a deal highlighted by Shin-Soo Choo heading to Cincinnati (Trade Breakdown: D’Backs, Indians, Reds). In case you missed it, here is a Stubbs fact from that piece that many may not be aware of: over the past three seasons that Stubbs has averaged 17 homers, 86 runs scored and 33 steals. So let me ask you, how many guys do you think went 17-86-33 in 2012? Let me save you the trouble of looking it up. There weren’t’ ten guys, nor seven, nor four, nor three. The answer is one. Only one man in baseball hit 17 homers with 86 runs scored and 33 steals, numbers that Drew Stubbs has averaged the past three years. The answer is Mike Trout (Stubbs fell short with 14 homers, 75 runs and 30 steals). Should you be paying more attention to Stubbs on draft day than his current ADP in the 250 range suggests?

Stubbs is coming off his worst full season as a big leaguer. Still, he hit the same amount of homers as Alex Gordon, scored the same amount of runs as Giancarlo Stanton and stole the same amount of bases as Ryan Braun. And that was Stubbs worst effort in three years.

Stubbs isn’t a big power hitter, but he hit 22 in 2010 and clearly has show himself to be a 15-20 type of threat. The move from Cincy to Cleveland isn’t likely to help – according to Park Indices the past three years right handed batters in Cleveland have a 72 mark in the homer category (28 percent below league average) while in Cincinnati that mark is 143 (the best in the NL) – so it would be best to set exceptions at the 15 or so level this year.

Are you old enough to remember the Rubik’s Cube?

As for the steals, Stubbs has stolen at least 30 bags in each of his three full seasons (he’s one of only six players over 30 each of the last three years: Michael Bourn, Coco Crisp, Rajai Davis, Jose Reyes and B.J. Upton are the others). He’s a tremendous athlete with speed to burn, so there’s little reason to think he won’t extend his streak to four years, especially since his career success rate is over 80 percent.

The runs scored, now there is an area that he should be productive in yet again, though there is something we need to talk about despite Stubbs’ solid totals in that category (91, 92 and 75 runs the past three years), and it also happens to lead right into the biggest concern with Stubbs.

Stubbs owns a career .241 batting average and .312 OBP. Those are terrible numbers that fall well below the league average during his career as a big leaguer (.261 and .329). Given those marks his ability to steal bases and to score runs is in question. Miscast as a top of the order hitter for long stretches with the Reds, he’s hit leadoff or second in the order in 286 of 486 career games, he’s likely best suited to be a #6 hitter. If he does indeed hit lower in the order in Cleveland remember that each successive spot in the batting order that a player drops he loses 15-20 plate appearances over the course of a season. If Stubbs hits 6th all year, for example, that’s likely to lead to roughly 90 or so fewer plate appearances than if he were to bat leadoff. Fewer plate appearances mean less times to run, and likely fewer chances to cross home plate.

Now to the hulking pink elephant in the room. Stubbs’ batting average.

Who wouldn’t want an outfielder with 17 homers, 86 runs scored and 33 steals on their team? Would you still want that guy if he was a career .241 hitter?

Stubbs is never going to produce in the batting average category. Never. However, it’s not at all a stretch to think that his .213 mark from last season will be a lower water mark for his career. Just look at two simple factors to explain what happened. (1) After 3-years with a BABIP mark of at least .325 the mark fell to .290 in 2012. (2) The owner of a nearly a 19 percent line drive rate heading into last season Stubbs saw that number fall to 14.9 percent. If his BABIP and line drive rates go back up, as they should, his batting average should rebound. Now by “rebound” I’m still talking about a mark that may not reach the league average which was .255 last season. The reason is obvious – Stubbs strikes out more frequently than I do at a bar on Friday night. For his career Stubbs averages a strikeout every 3.05 at-bats. That means he’s pretty much going to average more than a strikeout a game. Last season he struck out 166 times, a three year low, but he also had fewer plate appearances than the previous two years. The truth of the matter is that his 30.5 percent K rate was a career worst (career 29.3 percent). Stubbs will never stop striking out. His average will never be impressive. He has to hope that his manager understands that and doesn’t bench him for it.

Stubbs is an elite athlete who is one year removed from 40 steals and 92 runs scored. There are certain holes in his game, there’s no way to whisk that away, but there is still value to be had here because so many have been scared off his trail. If you draft Stubbs in a mixed league you will have to augment his addition with a couple of big batting average bats, but as a fifth outfielder Stubbs profiles as a player who might just return a tidy profit this season.
 

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Jason Hammel

Jason Hammel has long been a pitcher with the skills to succeed, even if his efforts on the hill never quite led to the production that it was thought he could bring (I wrote about Hammel back in February of 2011 in The Strikeout: Starters). Last season, his first in Baltimore after three seasons in Colorado, he was well on his way to finally fulfilling those expectations. Alas, he was limited to just 118 innings due to injury (his knee bothered him for long stretches of the year and he had surgery on the wheel in July) which leaves his outlook heading into 2013 about as fuzzy as it has always been.

Why would I bother talking a guy who has a 42-51 record and a career 4.78 ERA? That’s a fair question. Each year, from 2008-11, Hammel had an ERA of at least 4.33 and a WHIP of 1.39, and his record in that time was 31-34. However, he had just enough punchouts, kept the walks under control, and kept the ball on the ground just well enough to be of interest. Add in the Coors Field factor, we all know how it’s not a hospitable place to perform if you are a pitcher, and there was some thought that he could have a little more success in Baltimore even though he would be moving to the AL to pitch in arguably the toughest division in baseball (the AL East). So what happened last year in Baltimore? Some stuff that was better than anyone could have possibly hoped for.

Hammel had never struck out more than 7.14 batters per nine innings and he owned a career mark under 6.50 heading in to last season. Given that, it was pretty shocking to see his K/9 mark swell to a dominating 8.62. He threw his fastball harder than ever before, a mph harder than his career average, and that helped a bit. He also generated more swings on pitches outside the strike zone than ever before as his 29.7 percent mark was one percent better than his previous seasons best (oddly, his 44.6 swing percentage, the number of pitches he threw that batters swung at, was a six year low). Also, batters were able to post a 77.3 percent contact rate on all pitchers, light years below the 84 and 85 percent marks of 2010-11. Are those growth moves sustainable?

Hammel walked 3.20 batters per nine innings last season, a slightly elevated number for a guy with a 3.12 career mark. Add the walks to the strikeouts and you end up with a 2.69 K/BB ratio, well ahead of his 2.11 career mark but still well below the 3+ mark he posted in 2009-10.

The move out of Colorado certainly helped him to keep the ball in the yard as his 0.69 HR/9 mark was a career best and 30 percent below the 1.01 mark he owns for his career. Was his HR/F ratio to blame? Was it some ridiculously low number last season? Nope it wasn’t as it was 9.7 percent, within less than a percent of his career mark of 10.5. That leaves the explanation as to why the homer total fell at the foot of the amount of fly balls he allowed in his first season back in the AL (he pitched for the Rays from 2006-08). Hammel, somehow, held batters to a 28.1 percent fly ball rate. That’s extremely low, even for an extreme ground ball arm, and lo and behold that was what Hammel was last season. After six years never posting a ground ball rate of 47 percent, Hammel was able to generate a mark of 53.2 percent last season leading to a 1.89 GB/FB ratio. Some perspective here.

Hammel for career: 46.1 ground ball rate, 1.37 GB/FB, 6.58 K/9
Hammel for 2012: 53.2 ground ball rate, 1.89 GB/FB, 8.62 K/9
Felix Hernandez for ’12: 48.9 ground ball rate, 1.71 GB/FB, 8.65 K/9

Wow is right. Hammel shifted from solid for six years to dominating last season, so much so that his numbers compare favorably to King Felix, the highest paid pitcher in baseball history (if his 7-years, $175 million deal stands up as there are some concerns about his elbow right now).

Can growth like that happen for a pitcher in his seventh season in the league? Sure it’s possible. He might develop a new pitch, a new motion, just be “on” more times than not, learn a new way to attack hitters or might be moved to a ballpark that is more conducive to his pitching style. All of that could help explain how a pitcher improves. But ask yourself this question. How many times do you remember a guy going from six years of league average performance to becoming a borderline star overnight? How many times does that happen to a fella who pitches in the AL East? As if the questions about the division and performance weren’t enough, how would you feel about the guy if he was coming off an injury marred season that required surgery to the players knee? There’s a lot to like here with Hammel if the price is right (over in the NFBC world his ADP is 69th among starting pitchers). Make sure the cost is fair before you invest too heavily as there is always the chance that his knee holds him down or, more likely, he isn’t able to hold on to all the gains he flashed last season.

• Don’t forget to get your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers