Player Profile: Jon Lester

From 2008-11 Jon Lester of the Red Sox was one of the best lefties in baseball. Not only that, he was actually one of the better pitchers regardless of the arm he used to chuck pitches toward the plate. During that four year run Lester won at least 15 games each season with an ERA under 3.50 with a WHIP in the 1.20′s each year. He also struck out at least 180 batters over the final three seasons. In fact, he was an elite arm if you compare him to all other hurlers in baseball over those four seasons.

His 65 wins were tied with Cliff Lee for 4th in baseball.
His 3.33 ERA was 13th in baseball (min. 600 IP).
His 8.68 K/9 mark was 8th in baseball.
His total of 784 Ks was 8th in baseball.
His total of 813.1 innings was 18th in baseball.

Give that track record of success, and the fact that he was just 28 years old last season, what can explain his disastrous ’12 campaign that was by far the worst of his career? We’ll investigate.

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Lester bombed last season, worse than anyone could have imagined. His record reversed itself, he went 9-14, his ERA exploded to a career worst 4.82, his WHIP shot up to 1.38 and his K mark fell to 166 (a four year low). One of the few positives was that he continued to take the ball every five games as he made 33 starts covering 205.1 innings. So why the downturn in production from a guy who appeared to be lined up to have a lot of success in 2012?

Lester has been an impressive strikeout arm with 225 Ks in back-to-back seasons in 2009-10. That number dipped a bit in 2011 as his 9.80 K/9 mark from 2009-10 fell to 8.55. That number further regressed last year falling to 7.28. Did he suffer a velocity dip? Nope. His fastball was 92.6 mph last year, a tenth above his career number. In fact, his cutter was thrown harder than ever before at 90.3 mph. He also deployed the pitches in the same manner.

Fastball 52 percent of the time (career 54 percent).
Cutter 22 percent of the time (career 21 percent).

A velocity loss doesn’t explain things.

When he threw the ball in the strike zone batters made more contact that ever before, 91 percent of the swings, though his career mark is 89 percent so it’s not a huge difference. There was also a four year high in the contact rate of batters swinging at all pitches inside/outside the strike zone at 80.4 percent, but again that only two percent above his career mark (79.3). There’s also this – Lester walked 2.98 batters per nine innings, a three year low after back-to-back seasons of a mark in the 3.50′s. He lost some K’s but also cut the walks with the result being a 2.44 K/BB ratio, right on his 2.47 career mark despite the significant decline in punchouts. Given all that data, I wouldn’t be shocked in the least if his K/9 rate went back up to his career level of 8.20 as I just can’t pinpoint why the mark fell off so dramatically last year.

A few things that should normalize as well and lead to improvement.

His 22.0 percent line drive rate was a career worst (career 19.1 percent).

His .312 BABIP was a three year high and the second highest mark of the last six years.

His HR/F ratio was 13.9 percent, a career worst and well above his 10.1 percent career mark. The result was a HR/9 mark of 1.10, a five year high and well above that 0.85 career mark.

He had a 6.31 ERA and 1.59 WHIP at Fenway last season. For his career those marks are 3.89 and 1.36.

Lester is no longer someone you can look at with a shot to be a top-15 starting pitcher. That said, his current ADP numbers in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship barely have him listed as an SP3. Given the cost, I think Lester is going to be well worth investing in this season

Don’t forget to get your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Alex Gordon

Alex Gordon blew threw the minor leagues which is hardly a shock given the fact that he was was drafted second overall in the 2005 MLB Entry Draft by the Royals. He then had a solid first season in 2007 with 15 homers, 14 steals, 60 runs scored and 60 RBIs. Year two showed a wee bit of growth, his OPS climbed from .725 to .783, but 2009 was a total disaster as he hit .232 in only 49 games played (he missed about three months with a hip injury that required surgery). In 2010 he broke his thumb in camp and started the year in the minors eventually appeared in 74 games which resulted in an anemic .215-8-20 line. Was his career over before it really began? Gordon answered with an emphatic no in 2011 as he busted loose to hit .303 with 23 homers, 87 RBIs, 101 runs scored an 17 steals, finally fulfilling the promise that led to his selection at the top of the ’05 Draft. However, Gordon took a step back last season in AVG/OBP/SLG, HR, RBI, runs and stolen bases leaving some to question just how exciting a pick up Gordon will be for the 2013 season. Before I get to breaking down Gordon…

I was recently told by someone in my life that some of my writing of late has been a bit dry and too analytical. In order to address that concern I thought I would go completely off the rails today with a story from my youth involving a vacation, an 85 degree night, some alcohol and a video camera. OK, I might need to spice things up around here but I’m not gonna divulge any stories from my youth – not while sober at least. I seem somewhat professional to most, so there’s no need to ruin that illusion.

Despite the perception of some, Gordon didn’t exactly fail last season as he hit .294 with 14 homers, 72 RBIs, 93 runs scored and 10 steals. Sure that effort was a step back from ’12, but Gordon was still one of seven players in baseball who went .290-14-70-90-10 (Mike Trout, Ryan Braun, Andrew McCutchen, David Wright, Alex Rios and Aaron Hill). Is that type of an effort a letdown? Many would say yes given the heights he attained in 2011, but let’s be honest here. His batting average fell nine points. That’s nothing. It’s literally five hits over the course of the entire season. That’s one hit every five weeks. He also upped his walk rate from 9.7 to 10.1 percent while also cutting down on his K-rate (for the first time in his career the number was under 20 percent at 19.4). Gordon also posted a .356 BABIP, just two points lower than 2012, and he also had an elite 25.0 percent line drive rate that was 10th in baseball. His staning in the batting average category was fine.

His power did fall from 23 homers to 14, but in three of his four full seasons he’s hit 15, 16 and 14 homers. Isn’t it more likely that his 23 homer output in ’11 was the outlier than his effort last season? Moreover, his .455 SLG from last season is actually better than his career rate of .439. It’s also hard to dog a guy who had 51 doubles last season, the highest mark in baseball (he hit 45 in 2011 giving him a total of 96 doubles the last two years, the most in baseball – two more than Robinson Cano). The biggest issue with the power is that Gordon hit fewer fly balls than every before and fewer fly balls left the yard than normal. Gordon had a 33 percent fly ball rate last season that is well below his career 40 percent mark. When you don’t lift the ball as well you better be converting those fly balls into homers with great frequency. He didn’t. After 3-straight years between 11-13 percent in the HR/F category the number dropped to 8.5 percent. Given the totality of the data I wouldn’t rule out a return to the 20 homer level this season as both those numbers should rise in the coming season.

Gordon is a solid add on draft day, especially if expectations are muted after a “somewhat down” 2012 campaign. He figures to be a solid source in the batting average category and a run at a 15/15 season has to be seriously considered (there’s even a potential 20/20 season lurking). Given his .370+ OBP the past two years you also have to feel pretty good about his chances at making it 3-straight years with 90 runs scored. Gordon isn’t an elite option in the outfield but don’t be at all afraid to make him part of your lineup, especially if his draft day cost is low.

Finally, don’t forget to get your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Kyle Seager

Kyle Seager had a great season last year relative to his draft day cost (think back to your mixed league draft… was his name even called out?). Not many are taking note this year given the fact that he plays for the Mariners and that nothing he does really jumps off the page, but that doesn’t mean he is someone that you should be ignoring late in mixed leagues.

First, a huge negative with Seager. Last season, in many leagues, he qualified as a second baseman (in addition to third base). Given that second sackers with strong numbers are a bit harder to find than those type of producers at third base, we secretly wish every infielder in baseball qualified at second base. Obviously, they don’t. In the case of Seager, which I pointed out in Position Eligibility Matters, Seager will only be third base eligible in most leagues in 2013 after he appeared in 138 games at third base but only 18 at second base last season (14 of those games at second were starts). That’s certainly a ding to the fantasy outlook of Seager. However, does that ‘ding’ mean people will ignore him to the point that he represents another solid draft day buy?

Quick, how many third base eligible players had 20 homers and 10 steals last year? The answer is five: Hanley Ramirez, Chase Headley, David Wright, Edwin Encarnacion and Seager. That mix of pop an a little speed is a solid draw when it comes to Seager. On the flip it’s fair to question how much more he has to give in either category. A look at his minor league record shows a moderate performer in both homers and steals. In 2010 Seager had 14 homers before he went deep 10 times in 2011. That’s not exactly the track record of a guy who appears likely to increase his 20 homer total from last season. It’s not like he was out of control last year though – his HR/F ratio was only 9.8 percent, a totally repeatable number, and his 42.3 percent fly ball rate was also only slightly elevated (the league average is about 35 percent). If given a chance at another 600 at-bats he could repeat the homer total of last season.

As for the steals, I’m less certain there. Not an overly fast player, he’s also shown the propensity to run himself into trouble. In 2010 he recorded 13 steals but was caught 12 times. In 2011 he stole14 bases but was caught seven times. Last year with the Mariners he stole 13 bags while being caught five times. Studies have shown that you have to steal bases with a success rate of at least 67 percent in order to not hurt your team. The last three years he has 40 steals while being caught 24 times. That’s a 63 percent conversion rate meaning he’s actually harming his team more than he is helping it. Good managers should be giving him the red light at least part of the time, though he could steal swipe lower level double digits bags again.

Seager has an 80+ percent contact rate in the big leagues, and that’s a bit above average though it’s not exactly something to write your Congressperson about. He doesn’t strikeout much but he also doesn’t walk a lot, so his 0.40 BB/K ratio through two seasons is slightly below the league average.

Seager hit poorly last season at home: .223/.307/.325
Seager hit poorly against lefties: .237/.281/.377
Seager hit poorly during the day: .228/.320/.389

I’m not saying there aren’t concerns with Seager, there are as I’ve noted, and there is also little chance that he becomes an All-Star in 2013. He doesn’t have an outstanding skill that props up his fantasy value, but if he’s allowed to take the field 150+ times again the counting numbers aren’t going to embarrass anyone. Remember Casey Blake? It always seemed like he was undervalued on draft day so you grabbed him in the late rounds in mixed leagues when there was no one else left, and by the time the season was over he always turned a nice profit for you. That’s the kind of player Seager is. You roster him late in drafts, at a point where if he fails it won’t hurt too bad, but also at a point where his 20-70-60-10 line provides you a tidy profit. That means he is nothing more than a corner infield option in mixed leagues. However, in AL-only leagues his value improves significantly to the point where you should be feeling pretty about your prospects if you can roster him at a reasonable price.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Bryce Harper

What Bryce Harper did last season was amazing. Anytime a player hits 22 homers with 18 steals and 98 runs scored that is one heck of a season. When a player does that as a rookie it’s a rather remarkable season. When a player does that as a 19 year old it’s a season for the record books. Will the next great one build on a special rookie season in year two, and if so, how far up the mountain can he climb in 2013?

A look at some facts from 2012.

Bryce Harper hit 22 homers. Only one player 19 or younger ever hit more – Tony Conigliaro had 24 in 1964.

Bryce Harper had 59 RBIs. That is the 8th highest total ever for a player 19 years of age or younger (Phil Cavarretta had 82 in 1935).

Bryce Harper scored 98 runs. Only one player 19 or younger scored more (Buddy Lewis had 100 in 1936).

Bryce Harper had 18 steals. Only one player in the Modern Era (since 1901), 19 or younger, has ever stolen more bags (Ty Cobb stole 23 in 1906).

Bryce Harper had a .817 OPS as a 19 year old. No one 19 or younger ever had a better mark in a season of 502 plate appearances.

Given those facts, Harper must be looked at as an elite talent capable of immense things, the same point of view every person that has ever watched him play a game on the baseball field agrees with. This 19 year old kid was two steals and two runs from a 20/20, 100 season. Hell, Alex Rios and Carl Crawford have never done that. The question with Harper is how good will he be?

If we remove his name and age and just focus on the numbers, here is what we find.

He struggled against lefties hitting .240 with a .300 OBP and mere .415 SLG. He also struck out 51 times in just 183 at-bats against lefties.

He posted a BB/K mark of 0.47 which is basically league average. When he swung at a pitch that was thrown inside the strike zone he made contact 87 percent of the time, a solid number for a player who also owns a 20.1 percent K-rate.

His GB/FB ratio was 1.35, a bit higher than the league average. Moreover, his 33 percent fly ball rate was two percentage points below the league average making his homer total pretty impressive. The reason he was able to go deep 22 times was due to a solid 16.2 percent HR/F ratio. Anyone who has ever watched him hit knows that is a number he is more than capable of repeating and/or improving upon moving forward.

But we cannot remove the name on the back of the jersey from this discussion, can we? Much like the case with Mike Trout, these two players are once in a generation talents who just so happen to be starting their careers at the same time. Is it fair to either, particularly Harper since that’s who this piece is about, to treat him like every other youngster who has ever played the game? If I was to do that I would say that we should expect some moderate growth in year two. The average may not improve much, not until he cuts down the walks a bit and learns to be a bit more patient, but a repeat is well within the realm of the possible. I would also say that looking at the totality of the evidence that another run to 20/20 would be possible, though I would be a bit concerned about there being any homer growth since the fella didn’t hit as many fly balls as I would like to see.

Again though, is it fair to do this? Can we simply remove our beliefs/eyes when it comes to a generational talent like Harper? Do we change the way we evaluate players because of who Harper is and the fact that he accomplished so many amazing things as a mere 19 year old? That’s the exact point that analysis breaks down and the data might not be sufficient to explain what we are witnessing.

Is Harper capable of hitting .300?
NO. At this stage of his development he can be pitched to. If pitchers hit their spots they can not only get him out, but make him look bad in the process.

Is Harper capable of hitting 30 homers?
YES. Will he? Not without hitting more fly balls.

Is Harper capable of 20 steals?
YES. He nearly got there last year as a player with no big league experience an as one who got base at a .340 clip.

Is Harper capable of 80+ RBIs?
YES. The Nationals would seem to have a pretty stacked order, but it will still be tough for him to knock in 80+ runs if he hits out of the #2 hole (his spot for 117 of his 139 games last season).

Is Harper capable of 100 runs scored?
Duh. He had 98 last season. Hitting second obviously helps him in this category.

So what would you pay on draft day for a guy who could go .280-25-75-100-20. An awful lot right? I’m not saying that Harper will hit all five of those numbers. I’m also not saying he’ll fall short in all five categories. I merely use those numbers as a way to illustrate how most people will be viewing him on draft day which means if you want to roster Harper this year you will have to be willing to spend a top-25 selection. I don’t think I will be able to join that party. I know that he is an immense talent who we might one day look back on and be able to tell our children that we saw him play from the first day of his career, but I also know that he is only 20 years old and has a total of 139 games played at the big league level. I’d rather spend a top-25 selection on a player that I felt more secure about producing across the board than on Harper, even if there is a good chance that he ends up fulfilling those lofty expectations in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Dan Uggla

Dan Uggla hit an unacceptable .220 last season for the Braves. Unfortunately for him, that seems to be the only number anyone ever looks at. Consider the following data points.

Were you aware that Uggla’s 19 homers were the 5th best in baseball for second baseman? That’s if we slot Ben Zobrist as a second baseman.

Were you aware that Uggla’s 78 RBIs were third at the second base position?

Were you aware that Uggla’s 86 runs scored were sixth at the second base position? He’d be fifth if we removed Zobrist.

Did you know that he was one of three second basemen with 19 homers, 75 RBIs and 85 runs scored? The others were Robinson Cano and Aaron Hill.

Were you aware that his .348 OBP was better than the marks of Dustin Pedroia (.347), Neil Walker (.342), Jason Kipnis (.335), Rickie Weeks (.328) and Brandon Phillips (.321)? Uggla also tied with Joey Votto for the NL lead with 94 walks.

Were you aware that Uggla is the only second baseman in the history of baseball, ever folks, to hit 19 homers with 78 RBIs and 84 runs scored in 7-straight seasons? Moreover, he’s only played seven seasons, and if he repeats those three numbers once again in 2013 he’ll tie the all-time career mark for second baseman with eight such seasons (Jeff Kent).

So after all of that are you really going to sit there and tell me that the reason you lost last season was because of Uggla? Are you really going to tell me he was a huge disappointment? Are you really? I’m not saying that Uggla wasn’t disappointing last season, but I’m trying to keep it “real” as the kids say. His overall season last year was still good, at least in the counting categories (he’s never been an SB threat and in three of the past four years he hasn’t hit .245). That said, his batting average, homer total and RBI marks were all career lows, so I understand the frustration, but let’s not take that to the degree that we blame him for a fantasy squads failures.

The good news is that Uggla walked 94 times, a career best number. He also posted a 0.56 BB/K ratio which was a three year best and above his 0.48 career mark. Yes he was struggling to produce hits, but at least he didn’t totally lose control of the strike zone. That gives me some hope that his batting average could rebound. That’s especially true when I see Uggla with a 20.1 percent line drive rate – a career best. Last year was actually the first time that his line drive mark was ever over 17.8 percent. Despite a career best line drive rate his BABIP of .283 was below his career .292 mark. That doesn’t make a lot of sense now does it? It also doesn’t make much sense that his homer total fell given that his 46.4 percent fly ball ratio was a three year high. The reason that mark fell was that, after 4-straight years of at least 16.0 percent in the HR/F column, the mark fell to a career worst 11.4 percent. Nothing in his track record suggests that 11.4 percent is his new level, so the odds would favor a slight uptick in homers in 2013 for Uggla.

Maybe this is a case of me favoring the old guy, but I don’t see as much downside with Uggla as others. The Braves are going to play him every day, an a worst case scenario in my mind is a repeat of last season. Let me ask you this. If Uggla were to go .245-25-85-85 in 2013 would you take that? I ask because his career average is even better than that at .253-30-89-96. He’s no spring chicken, he’ll be 33 in March, but I’m still seeing enough in this guys efforts, as frustrating as it was to watch last season, that leads me to think that he has a a good chance to once again be one of the better run producing second baseman in baseball.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: C.J. Wilson

For the third straight season C.J. Wilson was a solid hurler. However, his first season with the Angels certainly did not live up to the expectations that were placed on his shoulder after two excellent seasons with the Rangers. Why was that? Turns out it’s not because he sucks (I think). It was likely because he was hurt.

You may have forgotten this because of the awful work in the second half which included a 4-5 record a 5.54 ERA an a 1.57 WHIP, but in the first half of the season Wilson was as good as he had ever been, and that is not hyperbole. At the All-Star Break C.J. was 9-5 with a 2.43 ERA and 1.16 WHIP as he made the All-Star team (deservedly). So what the heck happened in the second half that caused him to go from being an All-Star to Ubaldo Jimenez‘s twin brother? An injury to his elbow. Wilson never used the injury as an excuse, but clearly there was something wrong. Turns out he had bone spurs in his elbow. “It’s one of those things where you push yourself through anything because your job is to go out there and pitch,” said Wilson. “I tried to make a million adjustments to get around it… I can’t throw sinkers anymore because my arm doesn’t work right.” Wilson had the surgery on October 23rd, and reports suggest that there is no reason to think he wont be able to go full bore by the time Spring Training starts.

So, admitting that there was a physical issue that severely limited him late in the year, let’s look back at 2012 and see how his overall performance turned out.

After winning 15 and 16 games the previous two years he won 13 games in ’12. He made 34 starts, a third straight year with at least 33 starts, and though his total of 202.1 innings was a three years low it’s still a solid total in today’s day and age and his third straight 200 inning season.

For a third straight season his ERA was under 3.85, a solid but not great number in the AL. Of course, that number is that high because of a 3.83 ERA in 2012 after he posted a combined 3.14 ERA the previous two seasons.

Wilson saw his WHIP go up substantially. After posting a 1.21 WHIP in 2010-11, that number rose to 1.34. To be fair to Wilson we’ve go that injury to keep in mind. There is also the fact that his career WHIP is 1.30. How about the fact that after a 7.41 hit per nine mark the last two years that the number went up to 8.05 in 2012. Were hitters better against Wilson causing that hit mark to rise? Well, his BABIP of .281 was six points lower than his ’11 mark, and it’s five points below his career rate. His 19.9 percent line drive rate was a three year high, and it’s above his 19.2 career mark, but it’s far from being an outlandish total. Batters did post a five year high in batting average, but it’s hard to look at a .239 BAA and think a guy has stunk.

The real issue for Wilson is that he lost control of the strike zone, and it’s hard to blame the elbow as the sole issue there (though it likely contributed). In the second half Wilson had a 4.15 BB/9 mark, only slightly higher than his first half rate of 3.96 when he was healthy. Simply, he wasn’t very good all year long. Not that it’s a shock given that his career mark is 3.82 walks per nine or the fact that he’s now posted a BB/9 mark of at least 3.91 in five of the past six seasons. It might be wise to admit to yourself that his 2.98 BB/9 mark in 2011 was the outlier. The truth is that Wilson has strong stuff, batters have a hard time hitting putting the barrel on the ball, but he also has a hard time locating his pitches at times.

On the plus side, even though Wilson said he struggled with the sinker, his ball was still heavy enough to warrant a 50.3 percent ground ball rate, his highest mark in three years. The result was a 1.68 GB/FB ratio that is better than his marks from the previous two seasons (1.47 and 1.55). Despite the increase in grounders though, Wilson somehow had a four year high in his HR/9 ratio of 0.85. You know the reason. His HR/F ratio reached 10.8 percent after a three year run of less than 8.5 percent. Despite the lack of fly balls, he was relatively snake-bit when compared to his established level.

Wilson isn’t a perfect pitcher. He walks too many batters, always has, and that limits his upside despite the fact that he strikes out a large amount of batters (8.01 K/9 for his career) and that he generates a ton of ground balls (50.6 percent for his career). He has dominating stuff and when he’s locked in, like he was in the first half of last season, he’s a borderline ace. Blame the second half woes on that elbow issue and use that second half lull in production to allow you to roster Wilson much later on draft day than his skills dictate he should be taken.

 To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Bud Norris

The Astros are awful. They won only 55 games, losing 107 times, as the worst team in baseball in 2012 (they won a mere 20 games on the road last season). They were outscored by 211 runs, also the worst mark in baseball. But things are looking up for 2013. They are moving to the AL. They have new uniforms. They… that’s about it. Given how embarrassing things were last season it’s hard to get down on any one player from the club, there is enough blame to infect pretty much every section of the organization, but in terms of the on the field product one of the biggest losers has to be flame throwing Bud Norris who went from a being a player on the verge of a breakout to one wallowing in the morass of mediocrity in 2012. But is that actually a fair representation of what occurred?

Bud Norris won six games against 11 loses in 2011, blame the team for that, but he posted a 3.77 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and had 176 Ks in 186 innings in what counts as a Cy Young type effort for the Astros these days.

In 2012 Norris actually won more games, seven is nothing of course, but he also lost two more (13). The biggest gripe his owners will have is that his ERA rose by nearly a full run to 4.65. That’s a number that strikes fear into fantasy players who envision a move to the AL doing nothing to help a hurler. However, I’m here to tell you that all hope isn’t lost. Let me be clear. All hope is lost if you think Norris will actually have his name mentioned in the Cy Young talk, but all hope isn’t lost if your expectations are that you could add this hard thrower late and get a passable season with strong strikeout totals.

Like with James McDonald in his Player Profile the other day, Norris’ efforts look worse on the surface than they actually were. Consider the following data points.

Norris’ WHIP was 1.33 in 2011. It was 1.37 in 2012.

Norris upped his K-rate from 8.52 to 8.82 per nine innings in 2012.

Norris walked 3.53 batters after a 3.39 mark per nine in 2011, but given the extra strikeouts his 2.50 K/BB ratio was only one hundredth lower than his ’11 mark.

Norris allowed less than a tenth more homers per nine innings than the year before (1.23 to 1.16). His HR/F ratio also changed by a mere three tenths (12.0 to 11.7 percent).

Norris allowed the exact same line drive rate in both seasons (21.2 percent). His BABIP went from .294 to .301, and that’s pretty much exactly the same.

His left on base percentage in the two years was only 0.7 apart (72.8 and 72.1 percent).

Norris saw his GB/FB ratio go from 1.01 in ’11 to 0.99 in ’12. It was the same.

That’s a whole lot of the same wouldn’t you say?

There is a legitimate concern with Norris that I haven’t touched on. If he wasn’t on a team bereft of talent, would Norris be pitching out of the bullpen? Norris throws hard, often a key to bullpen arms, but it should be noted that his fastball velocity has gone down three straight years (94, 93.6, 92.6 and 91.8 mph). Part of that has to do with his attempt to locate his pitches better, but it’s also obviously a result of having to throw so many pitches over the course of the year. The second point, and more germane to the talk of moving him to the pen, is the fact that he’s really only a two-pitch pitcher. For his career Norris has thrown his heater 55 percent of the time while throwing the slider 36 percent of the time leaving less than 10 percent of his pitches as a third offering (a change up). Moreover, Norris cut his change up usage down even further last season throwing the pitch just 6.7 percent of the time, a four year low. If Norris was moved the bullpen and allowed to work the 9th inning we might be looking at something with that right arm of his.

One final note. He has some fairly drastic career splits that include a 3.51 ERA at home an a 5.39 ERA on the road so he might be a solid streaming option at home an a poor option while throwing on the road.

Norris is a big arm who pitches for a terrible team who is now in the league of hitters. He’s still worth a reserve round add in mixed leagues, talent and stuff cannot be taught, but the distance to fantasy stardom is slightly more vast than it was 12 months ago.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: James McDonald

On fantasy baseball draft day 2012 no one was buying Pirates’ hurlers. A.J. Burnett was hurt, Erik Bedard would be hurt soon (he always is – though surprisingly he wasn’t in 2012), and while James McDonald owned a good arm he’d yet to flash it consistently at the big league level. At the All-Star Break lots of people had interest in Pirates’ hurlers. Burnett was 10-2 with a 3.68 ERA, and McDonald was out of control good channeling Doug Drabek as he was 9-3 with a 2.37 ERA and 0.97 WHIP (Bedard made it through the half healthy but he went 4-10 with a 4.80 ERA). Things went south for the entire Pirates team in the second half, and no player typified that derailment better than McDonald who limped to the finish with a 3-5 record, 7.52 ERA and 1.79 WHIP over his last 13 outings. So who is McDonald? Is he the first half superstar, the second half loser, or the pitcher who overall went 12-8 with a 4.21 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 151 Ks in 171 innings pitched?

I usually don’t do this, but I’m going to give my answer before breaking down the player. Is McDonald an elite hurler? Certainly not. Is he so bad that he should be in Double-A? You know the answer to that is also a big fat no. That means, of the three categories I offered, that James is closest to the pitcher we saw for the duration of the 2012 season. I’m thinking Edwin Jackson like here, and if you owned McDonald you know what I mean as he was, at times, spectacular, and at other times spectacularly bad. Many will overlook McDonald on draft day because of his painful to contemplate second half numbers, but do yourself a favor and look at his season long numbers for the true picture. In fact, let’s compare his 2012 effort to his 2011 season. I know there isn’t one person in the world that would call McDonald consistent based upon his 2012 effort, but in reality, his season-to-season work was extremely consistent in a few key categories.

2011: 171 IP, 4.21 ERA, 0.92 GB/FB, 11.0 HR/F, 7.47 K/9
2012: 171 IP, 4.21 ERA, 0.99 GB/FB, 11.3 HR/F, 7.95 K/9

Remarkable isn’t it? And this brings up the point of perception. If you owned McDonald in the first half and kept your head about you, there was an understanding that McDonald was pitching well over his head and that at some point you would bail on him when things went south. If you turned away from logic and expected McDonald to keep up his first half run in the second half you were left as one angry, dispirited person. For the first group the perception is that McDonald just slowed down to become the pitcher he is (after all, look at the similarity in the numbers I listed above). If you were in the second ground you think that McDonald isn’t even a big league hurler, that he’s garbage, and that you would be a fool to look at him in 2013.

As I said at the top, I think the overall performance we saw last season is more of the hurler that McDonald is. His catastrophic failures in the second half, in my eyes, present a solid buy low opportunity in 2013. In addition to the similarities between his 2011 and 2012 numbers in a myriad of categories, there are a few other reasons to view McDonald’s 2012 season with a positive eye despite his deplorable finish.

McD recaptured half a K per nine innings over his 2011 mark, and his 7.95 mark is a strong number that is in excess of his 7.78 career mark. McDonald also cut his walk rate down to 3.63, about half a batter better than 2011. Those two moves allowed his K/BB ratio to go from a pathetic 1.82 in 2011 to a borderline passable 2.19 in 2012 (it was just under three tenths off the league average). As a result of the reduction in walks, his WHIP also went from an unacceptable 1.49 to 1.26 in 2012. That’s a better than league average number. Though his ERA was the same in both years, his SIERA and xFIP both say that the events under his control painted him to be a slightly better performer in 2012. Incremental growth from a guy in his second full season as a big league starter is encouraging.

I think McDonald can improve upon the numbers he posted the last two seasons. I also think that his draft day value will be beaten down by that dreadful second half so that McDonald will end up being available at a point in nearly every draft where he couldn’t help but represent a strong buy low option.
By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Barry Zito

The Giants won the World Championship, my thoughts can be found in Nirvana… Again, and Barry Zito was a huge part of that run to greatness. After being left off the roster in the 2010 World Series, Zito proved his mettle by throwing two dominating games against the Cardinals in the NLCS (7.2 IP, 0 ER) and the Tigers in the World Series (5.2 IP, 1 ER). This came on the heels of a season in which he won 15 games for the G-men. Is he back to being someone to target in mixed leagues?

Barry Zito won 12 games in 2010-11. He was also limited to 53.2 innings in 2011, the only time since his rookie season that he has failed to throw 180 innings in a campaign. Those facts, not to mention that he hadn’t been a pitcher anyone could count on in the fantasy game since 2006, led to Zito being on the majority of waiver-wire’s at the start of the 2012 season. However, he blazed it up out of the gates with a 1.67 ERA and 0.93 WHIP over his first four starts on his way to his most successful season as a Giants’ hurler. I already noted that he won 15 games, more than noted names like Clayton Kershaw, Adam Wainwright, Mat Latos and Jordan Zimmerman. Heck, he won as many games as Stephen Strasburg. Does that mean that Zito is back to being someone to think about on draft day? Not really (you didn’t really think I was going to say something else, did you?).

For the fourth straight season Zito posted an ERA over 4.00. It shouldn’t be a shock given that his poor work with the Giants has ballooned his ERA to 3.93 for his career, so that 4.15 mark from last season is right in line with what expectations should be. There’s no reason to expect improvement here. This is just the type of pitcher that Zito is at this point of his career. It should also be noted that his xFIP of 4.92 was a 4-year high, and as we continue our look at Zito it will become obvious why that is.

The major league average for WHIP in 2012 was 1.31. Barry Zito had a 1.39 mark in 2012. Moreover, the last time he posted a mark as low as 1.31 was 2005. That’s an awful long time ago to not even be average. There is no reason to think his performance will improve in 2013 in this category either.

Zito struck out 5.57 batters per nine innings in 2012, a full batter below his career 6.64 mark. The 6.64 mark is bad, about a batter below the league average (7.56 in 2012), and that 5.57 mark? You know that is horrible. Does Zito augment that low strikeout total with a strong walk rate? Hardly. His 3.42 per nine mark in 2012 was a 10 year best, and it was worse than the league average of 3.05 in 2012. The resulting 1.63 K/BB ratio of Zito was only slightly off the 1.79 mark he is saddled with for his career, and both marks are pathetically low. When you combine a terrible K mark, a bad BB mark and an average 1.02 GB/FB ratio, the results are usually an average effort. And that’s what we got from Zito – we got an average pitcher who was fortunate in the win-loss column (Zito didn’t lose any of his last 14 starts, including the playoffs with his last “L” coming on August 2nd). There is no way he’ll be able to keep up that winning streak in 2013.

Give Barry Zito full kudos for coming through down the stretch an into the playoffs for the Giants. His outing against the Cardinals is cited by many around the teams as the turnaround that propelled the Giants to their second World Championship in three seasons. On the other side of that glorious finish is the fact that Barry Zito is about as boring a pitcher as there is in the fantasy game. Don’t let the name or the finish fool you into thinking anything else. If you’re in a 12 team mixed league in 2013 don’t even bother thinking about Zito on draft day, and if you are in an NL-only league he’s still nothing more than a late round roster filler because he eats up innings and has a chance at wins.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Alfonso Soriano

Alfonso Soriano had a rather astonishing season in 2012 as he knocked in 108 run while going deep 32 times in a season, impressive enough to pick up a 6th place vote in the NL MVP (for more on that see Around the Horn – Awards). Did you see that coming? Be honest, you didn’t. I know because I took a lot of heat for drafting Soriano in the NL LABR draft. Here are some quotes from my Player Profile on Soriano written before last season.

“Alfonso Soriano gets no respect. He gets dogged for not producing a strong batting average, for not stealing bases anymore, and for being vastly overpaid. Even with all of that, I’m still here to tell you that Soriano might just be a strong draft day add because everyone is so down on the former 40/40 man from the Cubs that he could very easily represent a solid value add… Grab Soriano as your 5th outfielder and watch him rack up the homers and the RBI.”

I was right on wasn’t I? That being said, I have to admit to being surprised that Soriano had as much success as he had. Soriano went deep 32 times, his highest total in five years. What makes that number even more impressive is the fact that he went all of April without a home run. Moreover, Soriano didn’t hit his first home run until May 15th in his 31st game. Think about that. He gave away roughly a fifth of the season and still hit 32 homers. His total of 108 RBIs was his highest total since 2005 when he had 104 RBIs. In fact, Soriano actually set a new career best with those 108 RBIs (he has one other 100 RBI seasons with 102 in 2002). No one could have predicted a career best in his 12th full season. Soriano scored only 68 runs, not a strong total for a guy who knocked himself in 32 times, but it was still a four year high in runs scored. Soriano even had a four year high in batting average at .262, though that number is obviously not going to do any fantasy squad any good. Finally, Soriano stole six bags, a pathetic total for a guy who has swiped 40 bags on three occasions and who for 8-straight years swiped at least 18 bases. Still, it was a three year high (he stole seven bases in 2010-11). All in all Soriano had an extremely impressive season given his draft day cost and expectations.

Let’s not go overboard with the praise though. Let me take that back. Praise Soriano for what he accomplished in 2012, but realize that the chances of a repeat from the 37 year old outfielder in 2013 is small. Despite all the recent bests that Soriano posted and were enumerated above, there is also the fact that he appeared in 150 games (151 actually) for the first time since 2006. Expecting a repeat there is asking for trouble with the aging vet. Therefore, even if he somehow repeated his rates from last season in 2013, chances are pretty solid that a regression in his counting category numbers is in the offing. Next up is the fact that he hit .262 last season, .011 points below his career mark. He got on base at a .322 clip, one point below his career number. He had a .499 SLG, a four year high, but still six points below his career mark. None of that points to anything to get excited about. Soriano also had a K-rate of 24.9 percent. We all know he isn’t afraid to strike out, but that number was his highest full season mark ever, and four percentage points clear of his career rate. That’s not exactly a good sign for a guy whose bat speed is slowing with age. Counter to that are his .303 BABIP and 20.4 percent line drive rate, both marks four year bests. It’s a pretty fair bet both of those numbers recede at least a bit in 2013. It’s also not a good bet that Soriano will repeat his 17.8 percent HR/F rate, the second best mark of his career (he posted an 18.3 mark in 2006).

Soriano had a great 2012 effort. Pat him on the back for that. If you took my advice and drafted him you reaped the rewards. However, we’re now looking ahead to 2013 and Soriano does not represent the same value. Some will elevate his outlook based on his ’12 effort, so he represents less of a draft day steal. Also, he’s a year older and coming off a season that, for a variety of reasons mentioned above, is unlikely to be repeated. I would look at his 2010 levels of production (.258-24-79-67-5) if trying to set expectations for the coming season.
By Ray Flowers