Player Profile: Edinson Volquez

“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times…” That’s a quote from A Tale of Two Cities by Charles Dickens. It’s not exactly applicable to Edinson Volquez the last two years but it’s a strong point that I can use for illustrative purposes. Coming off the worst season of his career (5-7, 5.71 ERA, 1.57 WHIP an a PED suspension), Volquez rebounded for a solid campaign in his first year with the Padres last year giving hope that perhaps a return to his former glory could be in the offing (it wasn’t the “best of times” though as Volquez best season was 2008 when he went 17-8 with a 3.21 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 206 Ks in 196 IP).

For his career, this is what we know with Volquez.

(1) He throws hard. His average fastball has traveled at least 93.6 mph in every one of his eight seasons.

(2) His heater allows him to strike a lot of batters out. For his career he’s punched out 653 batters in 679.2 innings, a rate of 8.65 K’s per nine innings. Since his career began in 2005 he ranks 12th among pitchers in K/9 (minimum 675 IP). That’s pretty impressive, no?

(3) He often has no control over his heater. I’m talking that you could crouch behind home plate without a glove and not have to worry about getting hit by a pitch at times. For his career his 4.93 BB/9 is atrocious and only worsened by the fact that he’s actually pulled off an amazing feat – he’s walked at least five batters per nine innings each of the past four years. Among hurlers who have thrown 675 innings since the start of 2005 he is the fourth worst hurler at throwing strikes. Here is the trio of deadbeat arms who have been worse in the BB/9 column: Oliver Perez (5.34), Daniel Cabrera (5.21) and Jonathan Sanchez (5.00). It’s pretty amazing that he’s continued to regularly get the ball given his lack of strike throwing, but just like the others on the list, managers see the talent and the dominating stuff and are willing to overlook some of the deficiencies at times.

(4) He’s displayed a very intriguing trend of increasing ground ball rates. When a player does this once, you take note. When he does it twice you’re intrigued. When he does it three times… sign me up. Volquez had never posted a ground ball rate over 46.3 percent his first five seasons in the big leagues, but the last three years that number has been 50.6 percent or higher. As a result of all those ground balls Volquez has posted a GB/FB ratio of 1.75, 1.75 and 1.79 the past three seasons. As I continue note, a player who generates strikeouts and ground outs is the number one arm type to target on draft day, and it’s also the type of arm that teams try to build their pitching staffs around (now you know why teams continually give Volquez the ball despite all the walks). To that end, have you ever watched Volquez pitch? There are times where batters simply have no chance to put the barrel on the ball. None. There are times where his fastball is darting and diving so much that he has no idea where it is going, the batter has no idea, and neither does the catcher. However, when he’s “locked in” batters have no chance. Unfortunately, he has trouble staying locked in for six consecutive innings so there is always some point in every start he makes where it could go horribly wrong for him.

In a vacuum there is an awful lot to like here. In addition to the strikeouts and the grounders, Volquez pitches his home games in Petco Park in San Diego. When he does make a mistake up in the zone he’s more than likely going to be able to avoid allowing a long ball because his ball yard isn’t going to hurt him (even with the fences being moved in a bit this season). He also pitches in the NL West where parks in San Francisco and Los Angeles are also pitcher friendly. Everything would be peachy if not for his propensity to dish out free passes. Given a run of 4-straight years of at least five walks per nine innings there really is no hope for a change. As crazy as it sounds, if he were to to walk “only” 4.05 batters per nine, a full batter above the league average in 2012, his prospects would improve greatly. Alas, you can’t expect that to happen so Volquez remains a highly intriguing reserve round add that you just hope somehow locks it in for the duration of a season, however unlikely such a prospect might be.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Chase Headley

Since we all know I’m full of myself, let me do what just such a person is want to do and quote myself (from the article Fanball & Sirius Show League). “My boy Chase Headley, taken in the 20th round, was fantabulistic (.286-31-115-95-17). Given his draft day cost, he was one of the 10 best players in fantasy baseball this year.” How do you like them apples? The problem with Headley is that what he accomplished in 2012 was so far out of the norm for him that it’s exceedingly difficult to think that he as any chance of fully repeating that effort in 2013.

Headley’s most obvious step forward was in the homer category. Headley had never hit more than 12 homers in a season, and from 2009-11 he hit a total of 27 home runs. How in the world did he go deep 31 times last season? Great question. The first thing I do when witnessing such a massive step is to check a guys HR/F ratio. It’s damn telling in this situation. Headley posted a 21.4 percent mark, the 10th best mark in baseball. Tenth. Remember, the guy hit more homers in 2012 than he hit the previous three years – combined. As you hopefully get without me having to tell you, something is fishy here. Traditionally, analysts look at rolling three years periods to help get a feel for something like a players HR/F ratio. Let’s look at his marks from 2009-11: 7.6, 6.4 and 4.3 percent. Add those three numbers together and you get 18.3 percent. That’s lower than his 2012 mark. The fact is that there is no way anyone could have predicted his HR/F explosion last year. There is also no way that any rational person can think he will repeat that total in 2013. This situation brings back memories of Joe Mauer. You remember when Mauer hit 28 homers in 2009 after hitting 29 homers the previous three years? Do you remember how I predicted that his homer total would fall back to single digits (I was mercifully called an idiot for that claim)? What happened the following season for Mauer? He regressed to nine homers. Just take a look at the HR/F ratios of Mauer from 2006-10: 10.8, 7.2, 6.5, 20.4, 6.7 percent. I’m going to predict that Headley follows a similar path with his his HR/F ratio, that it will likely be cut in half in 2013 from his 2012 level. If that happens Headley will have a hard time hitting 20 homers. Why? Lost amidst all the homers is the fact that he was about to more than double his previous career best homer total despite a career low fly ball rate of 32.1 percent. In fact, his fly ball rate has gone down each of the past three years (38.3, 36.0, 32.3 and 32.1 percent). Doom is in the forecast here.

Let’s look at his GB/FB ratio. Here are his yearly totals: 0.83, 1.04, 1.18, 1.28, 1.42 and 1.51. You don’t have to be a math major to understand that trend. Every year of his career his percentage of ground balls has risen. That’s not, as already mentioned, going to allow him to hit 30 homers again though it might help him to hit .285 again (a number he has reached each of the past two seasons). Headley also posted a 12.3 percent walk rate in 2012, and that should help him limit the walks a bit, though he also had a four year high with his K-rate so his 0.55 BB/K ratio wasn’t a very strong mark. Headley still has a posted an OBP in the .370′s the past two years, and that’s a strong number in today’s game.

It’s also pretty darn difficult to think that Headley will knock in 115 runs again while scoring 95 runs of his own. Looking at the RBIs, how did he get to such a huge number when he hit only .274 with RISP and .203 with RISP and 2 outs? The Padres, after all, were 23rd in runs scored in 2012. Can you say opportunistic hitting? The data simply doesn’t support a repeat of either number (and moving the fences in at Petco a few feet doesn’t figure to have a huge effect).

The steals? I’ll give Headley kudos there. His ability to swipe a base – he’s been in double-digits the past four years and has swiped 17 in two of the past three years – has always propped up the value of Headley in the fantasy game.

After years of being undervalued the pendulum has swung with Chase. He’ll now be taken too early on draft day after what was very likely to be his career best effort. Here’s a definitive statement: Headley will not replicate his homer, RBI or runs scored marks in 2013. The average and steals are repeatable, but if he gives you 75% of his last seasons production in the other categories we’d be talking 23 homers, 86 RBIs and 71 RBIs. All of those numbers were still be career best efforts prior to last season. Headley could end the year as a top-10 third baseman but your setting yourself up for major disappointment if you are thinking a top-5 finish is in the cards.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Clayton Richard

The last two healthy seasons for Clayton Richard have led to 28 wins with 14 in each season (2010, 2012). Richard has also posted an ERA under 4.00 each of the past three years. He’s coming off a season with a career-high in innings pitched (218.2) and a career best WHIP (1.23). That certainly sounds like enough to vault Richard up anyone’s rankings when considering how to evaluate rank pitchers for the 2013 season. So why is there so much trepidation when the name of Clayton Richard is brought up in fantasy circles?

Let’s begin by looking at what Richard does well. His chief skill is his ability to induce grounders and to keep the ball off the fat part of the bat. For his career Richards has an 18.9 line drive rate which is on the low side of average. Over the past four seasons that number has never reached 20 percent so he’s consistently been average or slightly better than that. Richard has also induced grounder after grounder. In his career his GB-rate is 49.8 percent, and the last two seasons that number has been over 50 percent including a career best 54 percent mark in 2012. Obviously with this type of batted ball distribution on his resume his GB/FB ratio is going to be good, and it is. For his career the mark is 1.60 and last seasons 1.93 GB/FB ratio was the 7th best mark in the National League. That’s pretty impressive work.

At this point the other skill that Richard has, an I would bet you that 95 percent of the people reading this already know what I’m going to type next, is Petco Park. Obviously that’s not a “skill” but you get the point. The fact is that Petco is a hard place to drive the ball, an a pitcher like Richard who keeps the ball on the ground is going to have a ton of success in a yard that will help to cover up mistakes he makes up in the zone. Now that wasn’t exactly true in 2012 as his HR/9 mark swelled to 1.28, a career worst, but you can blame that on a 50 percent increase in his HR/FB ratio from 10 percent (career) to 15 percent last season. That number should normalize in 2013 by the way. It is also true that the majority of that homer damage was done on the road (1.44 per nine) versus at home in San Diego (1.03 per nine). Moreover, Richard continued his relative domination at Petco continuing the trend that makes him, at worst, an excellent streaming option when he pitches at home.

2010 (home): 3.15 ERA, 1.22 WHIP in 17 starts
2011 (home): 2.30 ERA, 1.11 WHIP in eight starts
2012 (home): 3.02 ERA, 1.10 WHIP in 14 starts

For his career Richard has made 45 starts at Petco Park. He’s won 19 of those games posting a 2.82 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. For some perspective on those numbers the third place finisher in the NL Cy Young Voting, Gio Gonzalez, finished the 2012 season with a 2.89 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. The fact is that Richard is actually a must start, no matter what the format, when he starts at home. Of course, the flip side is that he isn’t exactly the best road starter in the world, an in fact his career numbers are on the road are painful to look at: 23-23, 4.92 ERA, 1.53 WHIP in 382.2 innings. Hello Rick Porcello.

So, I can sum up this piece before I finish it with some of the simplest advice I have ever given. You’re crazy if you don’t start Richard at home. You’re crazy if you start him on the road. How is that for some insightful analysis?

Before leaving you for the day, a quick review of the rest of the things you need to know with Richard.

His strikeout rate is deplorable. The last two years he hasn’t even punched out five batters per nine innings and his career mark if 5.69, around two batters below the league average. The lack of punchouts severely dims his fantasy outlook. On the plus side he did something last year that he had never done as well before – he threw strike after strike. For his career he’s walked just slightly more than three batters per nine innings. Last season he dropped that mark down to 1.73 walks per nine, literally half of his total from 2010-11 (the mark was 3.46 in those two seasons). We certainly need more than just one season at that level to say he’s now that pitcher, but it’s an extremely heartening development for a guy whose perfect game would be 27 pitches with all 27 outs generated on ground balls.

Richard is nothing exciting to look at, and he comes with severe limitations, but that doesn’t mean you can’t reap a substantial return on your investment with him if you deploy him properly.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Luis Mendoza

I’ve outdone myself this time. Luis Mendoza, he pitches for the Royals if you were unaware, went 8-10 with a 1.42 WHIP last season. That type of pitching line points to a hurler being barely usable in a league specific setup. So have I run out of things to write about at BaseballGuys? Am I part owner of the Royals? Is Mendoza married to my second cousin? The answer to all of those three question is no, so why write about Mendoza? There must be some reason…

For the totality of the 2012 season, here are some Mendoza numbers:

5.64 K/9, 3.20 BB/9, 1.76 K/BB

As you know, none of those three numbers is even league average. In most cases that would portend doom in my eyes. Does it in the case of this Veracruz, Mexico righty? Don’t give up the faith just yet.

If a guy has a set of numbers like that, in most cases one of two things occur. (A) He’s likely to end up riding buses in the minor leagues very soon or (B) he’s got to have another skill that has led a major league team to use him in a significant role. In the case of Mendoza, it just might be the second situation.

As is often the case with a hurler who doesn’t strike anyone out and walks batters at the league average rate, Mendoza has a pretty impressive sinker at his disposal. After throwing his sinking fastball 80+ percent of the time from 2009-11, Mendoza actually cut back a bit in 2012 throwing the pitch 68 percent of the time as he leaned more heavily on his curve ball throwing it 23 percent of the time (that mark had never been above 11.4 percent during his big league career). By the way he’s really only a two pitch hurler as he threw a change up less than 10 percent of the time in 2012. As for the sinking action on his pitches, they worked to great effect in 2012. Mendoza’s ground ball rate last season was 52 percent, just slightly above his 51 percent career mark. Looks like the switch in the deployment of his pitches didn’t hinder him in the least. Given his only slightly elevated 21 percent line drive rate he was able to produce a 1.92 GB/FB ratio, the 7th best mark in the AL.

As we’ve seen forever, think Derek Lowe, Bronson Arroyo, Justin Masterson etc., pitcher’s can have a ton of success in the real world with a less than ideal skill set in the fantasy game. Taking a look at those three names that I listed, you will probably remember seasons where those guys led you to fantasy championships while in other seasons they doomed you to searching the waiver-wire to try and make up for what was a horrible fantasy effort. That’s often the case with guys that can’t get free outs (strikeouts) and that struggle with their control at times. When that sinker isn’t sinking/diving/darting they just don’t have the stuff or location to consistently get batters out. That up/down nature of sinker ballers is why I rarely get behind guys whose main asset is the ability to induce ground balls unless they can compliment that skill with the ability to miss bats (a ground ball arm who can strike batters out is the panacea of pitching – think Felix Hernandez, David Price and James Shields). Mendoza doesn’t have the ability to miss bats but he was decent during the second half of the season posting a 4.01 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in the second half of 2012 (remember when when I wrote about Phil Hughes in his Player Profile? In that article I noted that Hughes’ 2012 numbers included a 4.23 ERA and 1.26 WHIP). If Mendoza can cut the walks just a bit, and keep the ball down in the strike zone consistently as he has in the past…

Mendoza is a reserve round speculative pick in mixed leagues at best. The fact is that in most leagues with 12 teams I doubt he will be drafted. I’m not saying you should buck that trend and do so, but I would be remiss if I didn’t point out that Mendoza could run off a series of effective seasons on the bump. He’s never going to produce strikeouts, and his ratios may never be anything better than league, but given that you will be able to add him for nothing in 2013 it might be worth remembering his name early in the season if an injury strikes your club or if you play in a league that uses a head-to-head setup where a 2-start Mendoza might be worth considering rolling out there.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Hunter Pence

The San Francisco Giants, for the second time in three years, won the World Championship. Marco Scutaro was amazing throughout, and Barry Zito saved their bacon of excellence on the hill, but the spiritual leader of the Giants was no doubt Hunter Pence. After collecting more than 100 RBIs, in what has roundly called a “down” season, what should we expect from Mr. Pence?

It might surprise some people to note that Pence had 104 RBIs in 2012 (that includes a finishing kick of 45 in 59 games with the Giants despite hitting .219 in the city by the Bay). Not only was that total a career best it was more RBI than Buster Posey (103), the NL MVP. It was also two more RBIs than Matt Holliday and Adrian Beltre, five more than Jay Bruce, eight more than Andrew McCutchen and 10 more than Robinson Cano. Still, Pence’s season was disappointing. Let me count the ways.

Pence hit .253, a career worst.
Pence stole five bases, a career worst.
Pence had a .425 SLG, a career worst.
Pence had a .319 OBP, .020 points below his career average.
Pence had a career worst 21.1 K-rate (145 Ks).
Pence had 26 doubles, tying a career worst.

Why did all of this happen and should we still look at Pence with fondness in the fantasy game?

Why did a guy who had hit at least .282 the previous three seasons, one who owns a career .285 mark, hit .253? Well I already noted the career worst strikeout total, and that certainly played its part. At the same time he walked a bit more than normal and the resulting 0.39 BB/K ratio, while not a good mark, but a dead on match for his career rate. What about his ability to lash the line drive? Same as always there too. In fact, his 17.0 percent line drive rate was the third best mark of his six year career an above his 16.1 percent career mark. Well then what about his BABIP? Though his mark was still a league average .290, that was a career low and well off his normal .321 mark.

The guy might be the most consistent hitter in baseball when it comes to GB/FB ratios. In six years the mark has been between 1.50 and 1.67, and the last four years it has been between 1.60 and 1.67 (it was 1.60 in 2012). Statistically speaking, you just can’t do that, yet he has year after year. Given the totality of his approach, one would have to expect his batting average to rebound next season.

I’ve written this many times about Pence in the past, and what I wrote then still holds now. The guy will never hit 30 homers. Simply put, he hits too many balls on the ground. I just noted his GB/FB ratio which speaks to this. Pence has a ground ball rate between 51.1 and 53.1 percent the past five years. You can’t hit more than half your balls into the ground and be a big home run hitter even if you are as consistent as all get out in the HR/F category as Pence also is (between 14.7 and 16.0 in each of his six seasons). I mean seriously folks, the amount of consistency that Pence puts up year after year in the GB/FB and HR/F categories is simply astounding. It’s no shock that he went deep 24 times in ’12. Do you know how many homers he averaged from 2008-11? Come on now, you know you want to guess. If you guessed 24 you win a big sloppy kiss – not from me but from someone you are attracted to.

So let me boil it down for you.

Pence posted the same GB/FB ratio as he always does in 2012.
Pence posted the same HR/F ratio as he always does in 2012.
Pence posted the same BB/K ratio as he always does in 2012.
Pence hit the exact same about of homers as he always does in 2012.

We can blame his batting average dip as a bit of bad luck in BABIP, an a return to the mean if you will. Pence hit a career best .314 in 2011, a number that isn’t indicative of the player he is. What does Pence hit if you add together his 2011 and 2012 batting average? He ends up hitting .283 the past two years. What is his career average again? Oh that’s right, it’s .285.

I’m telling you folks, the guy’s consistency is unbeatable. There hasn’t been a player in baseball that can match that consistency since Pence graced major league ball fields.

The only area of concern with Pence is his steal total. The first four seasons of his career he never stole less than 11 bases and never more than 18. For those four years he averaged 13.5 steals. The last two seasons he’s only stolen 13 bases. Not an extremely fast runner until he gets his wheels rolling, Pence may never steal 18 bags again, but he still has to be looked at as a 50/50 bet to get back to double-digits in 2013.

Don’t be one of the group of people that will look down on Pence in 2013. Draft him as you normally would despite the dip in his batting average and steal total last season. Chances are pretty good that Pence will be the same player in 2013 that he has always been – a darn good one.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Edwin Encarnacion

Jason Collette of Rotowire.com and Cory Schwartz of MLB.com and I all have an unhealthy love for Edwin Encarnacion (fittingly, Cory outbid me for Encarnacion last year in Tout Wars – I was the runner up bidder. Cory, by the way, was sitting immediately to my left at the draft while Jason was sitting immediately to my right recording the results, real time, for the internet audience). For years the three of us pushed people to draft EE, and for years we looked only mildly intelligent. However, with one fell swoop EE made us all look like geniuses with not only his best season but one of the better all-around seasons by a third baseman in the 21st century. What can Edwin do for an encore, and will Jason, Cory and myself be pushing him as hard in 2013 as we have the past few years?

Looking just at the results, EE had a HOF type season for a third sacker as he hit .280 with 42 homers, 110 RBIs, 93 runs scored and 13 steals. In the history of baseball there have been six seasons of .280-40-110-90-10 at the third base position (Alex Rodriguez did it twice, then single season efforts from Ken Caminiti, Dick Allen, Mike Schmidt, Chipper Jones and EE). Honestly there have only been five such seasons by full time third sackers as EE appeared in only one game at third base in 2012 (he was eligible at the position in fantasy after appearing in 36 games at the hot corner in 2012). So while putting him in that group is sort of cheating, it doesn’t take away from a spectacular season for the fantasy game in 2012. Let’s look at his skill set and see where we should set expectations for a guy who, in his 8th season, exploded onto the scene.

EE is never going to be a batting average booster. His .280 batting average in 2012 was the second best mark of his career, he hit .289 in 2007, and only once from 2008-11 did he hit even .270. Why? Pretty simple really. He’s just not a great hitter – the 2006 season was the last time he posted a line drive rate of 20 percent, and his career BABIP is .280. Neither of those two numbers is anything close to being something to be proud of. On the plus side EE usually doesn’t give away too many at-bats, he’s only struck out 100 times once and his K-rate has been under 16.5 percent the past three years (a solid number in today’s game). Last season was the first time that he really took to the walk as his 13 percent walk rate was well above his nine percent mark entering the year. If he continues along those lines his outlook would remain strong (his 0.89 BB/K ratio from 2012 dwarfs his previous career best of 0.60).

Moving on from the average, what about the power output? Always a fly ball hitter, one of the other reasons his average has never risen to the level of excitement, EE owns a 45 percent career fly ball rate (about 10 percent above league average). In ’12 Edwin had a 49.5 percent fly ball rate, the third highest mark of his career, and that certainly played a part in his homer explosion. There are two other major factors. The most obvious being an 18.7 HR/F ratio, fifty percent better than his 12 percent career mark entering last season. So Encarnacion hit more fly balls than normal and those fly balls reached the seats more often than at any previous time in his career. Add in the fact that he appeared in 151 games, a career best and his first season over 140 games since 2008, and you have another pertinent reason for his growth – he was on the field more than ever before (his total of 644 plate appearances was 62 more than ever before). That certainly helps one to produce in the counting categories.

Let’s keep things simple here. For seven seasons EE teased. In year eight he became a superstar. What that means is that for 87.5 percent of his big league career he has been solid, and 12.5 percent of the time he has been elite. Teammate Jose Bautista followed a similar path and backed up his breakout season with another impressive campaign (he was on his way to a second strong follow up before injuries limited him to just 92 games in 2012). Will Edwin be able to follow that same path? Remember the following before you go all in with EE in ’13.

He had never hit 27 homers before going for 42 last year.
He had never driven in 80 runs before going for 110 last year.
He had never scored 80 runs before going for 93 last year.
He had never stolen more than eight bases before going for 13 last year. He stole a grand total of 12 bases in the previous four seasons (2008-11).

Heading into the 2013 fantasy campaign Edwin Encarnacion’s value is limited off the hop – the only position he will qualify for is first base. That really hurts his value. Add in the fact that he took such a substantial step forward in year eight that it must at least be considered that 2012 will go down as a career best effort. The pendulum hasn’t swung completely, I’m not going to suggest avoiding Edwin after pleading for people to draft him for five years, but I will exercise a word of caution with Edwin. I find it hard to believe he will be able to replicate his 2012 numbers. If you draft him hoping for 80 percent of last year’s production I’d be OK with that, but you will almost certainly have to draft him earlier than that projection would lead you to considering the hype he will likely draw at the draft table.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Wilin Rosario

Wilin Rosario came out of relative obscurity to lead all major league catchers in home runs last season with 28 big flies (one more than A.J. Pierzynski). I for one was called out for spending $8 on him in the LABR NL-only league last season. Obviously I had the last laugh on that one. Even so, I’m reluctant to suggest Wilin will be able to match or exceed that power effort in 2013, and that means I’m pumping the breaks just a bit with the outlook of the Rockies’ catcher.

Let’s dig right into it and break down those big flies which are the reason that Rosario stood out so much last season. The position many will take will have two parts. (1) This guy plays half his games in Colorado which is a huge boost to a player’s power output. (2) He’s only got 133 games of big league experience under his belt so the best could easily be yet to come. Point by point.

(1) Rosario hit 18 of his 28 taters at home. That a player had success hitting in Colorado is about as obvious as suggesting that Lacey Chabert is mildly attractive (she’s amazing if you ask this scribe). Coors Field was, according to Park Indices, the 3rd best park in the NL for right handed power hitters to bang one out in 2012 (it was 20 percent better than the league average).

(2) Here’s where the problem comes up. Some history.

In 395 minor league games Rosario went deep 61 times. That breaks down to 21 homers per 135 games. So far in his big league career he has gone deep an average of 32 times per 135 games. I think we’re looking at a small sample size skewing the numbers, don’t you? Maybe you don’t, that’s probably why you think I’m off in suggesting that Rosario isn’t likely to maintain his homer pace from last season. Are you aware that he went deep 28 times in 396 at-bats last season? If he kept up that pace over 500 at-bats we’d be talking about a 35 homer season. There have only been three 35 homer seasons by a catcher in the 21st century by the way (Mike Piazza had two, Javier Lopez had one).

Normally when a guy hits homers at this pace it’s got a lot to do with his ability to convert fly balls into bleacher reachers, and that is the case with Rosario. After posting a 21.4 percent HR/F mark in 16 games in ’11 he backed that up with a 25.5 percent mark in ’12 leaving him with a 25.0 percent career mark. How impressive is that number? Only six other men in baseball were able to post a mark of 25.0 percent in 2012 if they accrued more than 400 plate appearances. Is Rosario this type of elite power hitter? His minor league career track record say it’s possible as he was able to also post a HR/F ratio of 24.1 percent in the minor leagues the past two years. Still, I’m always reluctant to subscribe an elite number to a player with such little experience.

Let’s say that I’m only 80 percent right which would be about 30 percent better than I normally am. Let’s say that Rosario’s HR/F rate regresses to 20 percent in 2013, still an elite number (I should point out that only 22 men in baseball had a 20 percent mark last season in a season of 400 plate appearances). The real issue is that Rosario simply doesn’t lift the ball enough. The big league fly ball rate is about 36 percent. Last year Rosario’s fly ball rate was 36.5 percent (career 36.9). He’s merely a league average fly ball hitter (the last two years his fly ball mark in the minors was about 30 percent). If he doesn’t maintain his elite HR/F ratio then he will struggle to go deep 25 times, even with a season of 450 at-bats (he had 396 last year remember). It’s not that he won’t have a shot to go deep 25+ times in 2013, it’s just that a lot of things will have to break for him to get there.

As for his batting average he hit .270 last year, just ahead of his .267 career minor league mark. That’s pretty standard fair for a catcher, especially one with power, so there’s no reason to be overly concerned. However, there’s also little to go on if you are expecting growth in this category. Wilin, and yes the guy spells his name with on “L,” posted a line drive rate of 17.5 percent in the minors in 2011. He then followed that up with a 17.3 percent mark in 2012 leaving his 133 game big league ledger at 17.6 percent. It’s pretty clear this guy isn’t wrapping out liners like the second coming of Larry Walker. A 17 percent line drive rate is well below the big league average of 19-20 percent, and it’s indicative of a .262 hitter (his career mark). Rosario has also whiffed a lot, 119 times in 450 big league at-bats, and that also doesn’t speak to growth in the batting average category.

Rosario is a solid option at catcher for the 2013 season. Much like Salvador Perez though (see Perez’s Player Profile), I fear he will be over-drafted in 2013 (I ran a poll about the relative value of Wilin on the last day of the 2012 calendar to illustrate my point). Rosario should not be drafted with the expectation that he will substantially improve upon last years numbers. In fact, I’m not even suggesting that it would be wise to expect a full repeat of his 2013 efforts unless he racks up 100 more at-bats to help mask the per at-bat drop off. Like I wrote, Rosario is a solid option behind the dish but his breakout 2012 effort is his ceiling for now.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Salvador Perez

I had the gall to suggest in late December that I wasn’t sold on Salvador Perez being a .300 hitter with 20 homer power for 2013. Seems like I touched a nerve because a whole lot of people called me out on the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account for the statement. I thought I would take more than 140 characters to try and make my point this week.

* I went beyond just the suggestion on Twitter as I ran a poll asking how folks would draft Perez compared to others at the catcher’s position.

Here’s what the basic argument was with Perez and why most thought he would be a star.

He hit .311 in 148 at-bats in 2011.
He hit .301 in 289 at-bats in 2012.
He hit 11 homers in 76 games in 2012.
Obviously he is therefore going to hit .300 with 20+ homers if he gets 500 at-bats in 2013.

Let’s see…

Yes it is true that Perez has hit .311 over the course of 437 big league at-bats. Is that indicative of what we should expect from him in 2013? Perez posted a .362 BABIP as a first year player and that number predictably regressed in 2012 falling all the way to .299. It certainly happens, but it is a bit strange to see a guy hit .301 with a BABIP below .300. I’d suggest it’s not likely to continue like that, not to mention that his BABIP in the minors in 2011-12 was slightly lower than his big league mark at .311. Just pointing that out.

Following up on the BABIP talk, let’s look at his line drive rate. In 2011 that mark was 29.2 percent. He’d have to be the greatest hitter of all-time to keep that up. He isn’t and he didn’t as the mark fell to 24.2 percent in 2012. That’s still a massive number though, and one that I wouldn’t feel comfortable expecting to occur again in 2013. If logic and history aren’t enough for you to go on here, how about this fact; as a minor leaguer in the 2011-12 Perez posted a line drive rate of 19.9 percent which just so happens to be the big league average. It certainly doesn’t seem wise to expect him to match his current 25.8 percent career mark with the Royals given the totality of the data.

I would also like to point out that this guy just doesn’t walk. He has coaxed a total of 19 walks over the course of his 463 career plate appearances. That rate equates to a walk total of 21 walks per 502 plate appearances. Folks, Adam Dunn walked 26 times in the month of May last year. Moreover, do you know how many guys hit .300 last year with a walk rate as low as the 3.9 percent mark that Perez had? It’s not a long list. Here are the names… there are none. Not a single guy with 502 plate appearances in 2012 hit .300 with a walk rate under 4.0 percent. None. No one did in 2011 or 2010 either. The last guy to do it was Miguel Tejada in 2009 when he hit .313 with a 2.8 percent mark. The problem is that when you don’t see pitches and take a walk you can be pitched to. It’s also very hard for these type of hitters to pull out of a slump when they find themselves in one. It’s true that Perez makes good contact, his K-rate of 8.9 percent is very low enabling him to post a basically league average 0.40 BB/K mark, but the lack of walks are a big concern for me and should be for you as well if you are thinking he’s going to hit .300 year after year.

Sorry folks, but that’s 0-for-3 for Perez if you are trying to make the point that he is a lock to hit .300 in 2013.

What about the power you say?

(1) The easiest thing in the world is to say that ‘he hit 11 homers in 289 at-bats last year so he’ll hit 20 in a full season this year.’ Such an argument, while a good one to make at a bar on a Friday night after five midori sour’s (and let me tell you that you have to be very secure in your manhood to order one of those at a bar), just doesn’t hold up in the light of day. Even if we give Perez 500 at-bats in 2013 as a projection, an I would be remiss if I didn’t state that there were only six catchers in baseball that reached that mark last season, and let him maintain his rate of one homer per 26.3 at-bats he would still only go deep 19 times in 500 at-bats.

(2) Perez has only 14 homers in 437 career big league at bats.

(3) Perez has only 20 homers in 1,278 minor league at-bats.

(4) That’s 34 homers in 1,715 big league at-bats. What would that equate to over our hypothetical 500 at-bat season? That’s 9.9 homers folks.

(5) Perez had a fly ball rate of 27.7 percent in 2011-12 in the minors. During his big league action in 2011-12 he’s had a fly ball rate of 30.9 percent. That equates to a fly ball rate of roughly 30 percent. The big league average is about 36 percent. Therefore, if Perez is going to hit 20 homers with an inferior fly ball rate, he’s going to need to be money in the HR/F conversation ratio. He’s not. In his 115 game big league career that mark is only 11.5 percent (the big league average is usually right around 10 percent). That mark in the minors (2011-12) was 10.4 percent.

I’m sorry folks but Perez simply doesn’t profile as a .300 hitter with 20+ homer power in 2013. Could he hit .300? Sure. Could he hit 20 homers? I can’t say it’s not possible, but I highly doubt it. Would I bet any money that he would reach both marks in the coming campaign? Absolutely not. Don’t take this to mean that I wouldn’t want Perez as one of my two catchers in a mixed league. I’d have no problem at all calling his name out on draft day, but the chances of him ending up on any of my teams is small since there seems to be such a fervor over adding him in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Zack Cozart

Some things confuse me. Take the following list of thoughts.

Why do we need an I.D. to buy a pack of cigarettes but I don’t need one to vote?

Why hasn’t a big league team asked me to work for them?

Why complain about $4 a gallon gas when you pay $4 for a 16 oz coffee?

Why don’t hot women love me? I mean, come one now, I’m The Oracle.

Why do people think that Zack Cozart is an impressive offensive player?

You’re probably only actually concerned with the last question.

Somehow people seem to think that Cozart is some sort of offensive dynamo, a notion which the data simply turns its nose up at. Strap in. Here we go.

During a five year run in the minors, 506 games worth of action, Cozart hit .270. Yippee. Cozart got on base at a .332 clip. Wowzahs. Cozart had a SLG of .421. Wow, I’m about to fall off my chair since that number is so impressive. Nothing, n-o-t-h-i-n-g, in that line should make anyone excited. The fact is the bat he flashed in the minors was the average man’s average. Yes he did bat .310 as a 25 year old at Triple-A over 77 games in 2011, but that was the first time he showed anything significant as a hitter.

How did Cozart perform last year with the Reds? Stop me if you’ve just read this, but he was average. In fact, a strong argument can be put forward that he wasn’t average – he was actually worse than that.

Cozart hit .246 in ’12 and owns a .251 career batting average. Last season baseball as a whole hit .255. He’s below “average” in the average category. He did post a league average line drive rate of 20 percent, and his BABIP was just a smidge below that league average at .282. He deserved that batting average, especially when you look over at the BB/K column and see a mark of 0.27, two tenths below the league average. Face it, he wasn’t, nor is he likely to be in 2013, a batting average booster.

Cozart hit 15 homers, and for a shortstop that is a solid total, one that was bettered by only seven shortstop eligible players (Ian Desmond led the way with 25). Still, I’m calling average here yet again. Cozart had a 38 percent fly ball rate and an 8.8 HR/F ratio. The big league averagesa are usually about 36 and nine. Cozart did hit 33 doubles, a solid total, but his SLG was still .399, a terrible number that was once again below the big league average of .405. Not much to see here again.

Cozart drove in 35 runs. Thirty-five. That’s one less than Yuniesky Betancourt who appeared in 57 games and two less than Josh Rutledge who took the field 73 times. To compare, Cozart appeared in 138 games, eight more than the total of the other two players combined. Cozart and Ben Revere were the only two players in baseball with 500 at-bats and 35 or fewer RBIs (Revere had 32 RBIs in 511 at-bats).

Cozart scored 72 times, a fairly impressive numbers for a guy with a pathetic .288 OBP (a number that a professional baseball player should be embarrassed to have on the back of his ball card. The major league average was .319 last season). The run total was 10th among shortstops qualifiers in the fantasy game. Blame the lack of RBIs on the fact that he appeared 102 times as a leadoff hitter and 27 times out of the #2 hole. Conversely, the reason he scored so many runs was merely because of his spot in the batting order. There are many reasons to be worried about Dusty Baker if you are a Reds fan, and this is one of the best examples. Your manager hit a guy with a .288 OBP first or second in your order 129 times. That’s unacceptable. It’s also embarrassing. How someone could rise to the level of manager and have no concept of how to put together a batting order is truly shocking. Best case Cozart should have been hitting 7th, but ideally he’d be the 8th place hitter with the effort he put up there last season. You can’t even defend the decision by saying Cozart’s speed causes problem for defenses. It doesn’t. He stole only four bags in 2012.

Nothing Cozart does stands out. Zack Cozart has only 149 games of big league experience, but he’s already 27 years old. He showed little with the bat in the minor leagues, and he continued to perform along those same lines last season. He was also exceedingly fortunate to have a manager with no understanding of how the game of baseball should be played. Barring Dusty Baker again being moronic and slotting Cozart at the top of the Reds’ order, there simply isn’t anything I can hang my hat on here as a reason that Cozart should be targeted on draft day 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Paul Maholm

Paul Maholm‘s name likely elicits, let’s see, a yawn? Before you lock that thought into your head as to what your reaction should be when the Braves’ lefties name as mentioned remember this:

Maholm had a better ERA than Homer Bailey, Chris Capuano, Mark Buehrle, Wandy Rodriguez, Jeff Samardzija, Josh Johnson, Adam Wainwright and Ian Kennedy in 2012.

Maholm had a better WHIP than Ryan Vogelsong, A.J. Burnett, Adam Wainwright, Josh Johnson, Ian Kennedy, Yovani Gallardo, Lance Lynn, Tommy Hanson and Tim Lincecum in 2012.

Maholm had more wins than Jordan Zimmerman, Chris Capuano, Roy Halladay, Edinson Volquez, Tim Lincecum, Edwin Jackson, Chad Billingsley and Jeff Samardzija.

Do I have your attention yet?

Paul Maholm isn’t exciting, I will give you that. Even with all of the above data the fact of the matter is that Maholm won 13 games, had a 3.67 ERA an a 1.22 WHIP. Those are certainly solid numbers no doubt, but it’s not like they will lead to a fantasy championship. However, it should be noted that numbers like those, from a reserve round selection or a waiver-wire pick up, are special numbers. Are you better off spending $23 on Johnny Cueto or $3 on Paul Maholm on draft day? Obviously Cueto is a better pitcher and the one you need more to win a championship, but hopefully you see the point – Maholm is the better value add based on his draft day cost. If you can augment an expensive Cueto with a cheap as all get out Maholm, then you’ve got something. In terms of return on investment, Maholm was one of the best bargains in baseball in 2012. Can he be so again in 2013?

On the bump Maholm has been very consistent the past two seasons. In 2012 he had a 3.67 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 189 innings. In 2011 he had a 3.66 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 162.1 innings. However, like many of the other hurlers I’ve been reviewing, it’s best to realize what Maholm is – he’s a rotation filler who won’t hurt you. Why do I say that? For some reason he can’t seem to consistently win games. Maholm owns a 66-84 career record, and even the past two years when he has pitched so well he’s gone 19-25. Wins-loses are of course a bad way to judge pitchers performances, I’m the first to admit that, but in the fantasy game they are one of the four categories that matter to starting hurlers. I should also point out that in four of the past five seasons, despite at least 26 starts each year (more than 30 in four of them), that Paul failed to reach double-digits in wins. For some reason he’s just not able to consistently post wins.

The next issue with Maholm is that he lacks a strikeout pitch. For his career Maholm owns a poor 5.71 K/9 mark, and that fact alone removes him from receiving my stamp of approval. Still, it is somewhat heartening to see that he’s coming off a career best mark of 6.67, though it should be noted that the mark is 0.61 better than ever before (back in 2008). Maholm isn’t going to turn into a league average K arm, just the way it is. Maholm does keep the walks in check, at least he has that going for him, with a BB/9 mark of 2.80 or lower in five of the past six years.

One thing that Maholm does well, very well, is induce grounders. It’s why he can be so effective without dominating hitters. Maholm’s GB-rate has been at least 49.9 percent every season of his career, and his worst GB/FB ratio for a season is a still impressive 1.69. Consequently he’s not exactly a homer magnet as his HR/9 mark has been under one each of the past five years.

Maholm will never be elite. He’ll never be someone to build a staff around. He’s also a pitcher who could see his performance go down since he lacks elite skills, but not likely up. That’s why he’s not someone to reach for on draft day, ever. Still, if you’ve got five or six solid arms in the rotation in a mixed league, and it’s the 25th round, you could do worse than calling out Maholm’s name on draft day.

By Ray Flowers