History in the Making

A slugger made history. A pitcher who also made history has hit hard times. A pitcher is getting no love despite personal success. A former elite option is returning to action. Two middling hurlers have been mighty impressive. And oh, Kate Beckinsale…

Josh Hamilton had one of the greatest nights in baseball history Tuesday as he went deep four times with eight RBI as he became just the 16th player every to hit four dingers in a game. He also hit a double to propel him to 18 total bases, the most in a game in the history of the American League (Shawn Green had 19 total bases in his four homer game for the Dodgers in 2002). So what do I say to all of that? Trade Hamilton now at his zenith. Remember, the guy has averaged 114 games played the past three years.

Reason 1,963 why wins mean nothing… Ryan Dempster has a 1.02 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 9.17 K/9 an a 3.60 K/BB ratio through five starts and he is 0-1 for the Cubs.

Phil Humber tossed a perfect game on April 21st, the 21st in the history of the game. However, he’s been an unmitigated disaster in three outings since. Humber has tossed 13.1 innings an allowed 20 hits. As bad as that sounds, it’s nowhere near the worst of it. In those 13.1 innings he’s also walked 11 batters, allowed five home runs and permitted, and his is no misprint, 20 earned runs to cross the plate. Add that all up and Humber, in his last three starts, has an ERA of 13.50 an a WHIP of 2.40. Now you see why I had him ranked outside my top-100 amongst starting pitchers this season and why all that talk about him taking the next step this season were baseless.

I know the movie was terrible, but if anyone can watch Underworld Awakening – which was released on DVD this week – and see Kate Beckinsale and not want to immediately buy some leather pants, then I don’t know what your problem is. Where is my Kate Beckinsale? What a looker.

Andy Pettitte will start for the Yankees on Sunday. With a name that will almost certainly far outpace his production, Pettitte is nothing more than an innings eater for a mixed league staff, an a moderate one at that. The 39 year old tossed four games as he worked his way back into shape and he allowed seven earned runs (3.71 ERA) and 22 base runners (1.29 WHIP) against the whipper snappers in the minors, not exactly impressive totals.

Joe Saunders got lit up Monday allowing six earned runs in 3.1 innings in his first non-quality start of the year in his sixth start. It’s all about the law of averages, or regression to the mean if you prefer. Saunders is the owner of a career 4.10 ERA an only twice in four seasons as a full-time starter has his ERA been under 4.40. Clearly he wasn’t going to post a sub 2.00 ERA this season. In fact, even with his outing Monday his ERA is still nearly a full run better than it has ever been at 2.50 (he had a 3.41 mark in 2008). Given Saunders skill set everything, an I mean everything, will have to go right for him this season to post an ERA under 3.40. What that means is that he still has a long way go to regress back to the pitcher he actually is. Be sure you’re aware of that if you have him rostered as anything other than a rotation filler in mixed leagues.

Carlos Zambrano was a pitcher I targeted as a pick up this week because of his two start status. Consider game one a rousing success as Big Z tossed a nine inning shutout at the Astros permitting only three hits and one walk while striking out nine. I know it was the Astros which is akin to mowing down a Triple-A roster, but it’s time we give Carlos some props. His 1-2 record blows chunks but it certainly has nothing to do with how he has performed as he’s posted a 1.98 ERA and 1.02 WHIP for the Marlins. Moreover, Zambrano has made six starts, all of which have been “quality starts” (at least six innings pitched while permitting three or fewer runs). A hell of a start for the combustible one.

Here are some pitchers that are bound to have brighter days ahead given their massive BABIP mark (it’s very rare to see a hurler end a year with a mark as high as .330).

.439 – Josh Johnson
.407 – Mar Scherzer
.381 – Ivan Nova
.369 – Zack Greinke
.363 – Juan Nicasio

By Ray Flowers

Timing is Everything

People try to play fantasy baseball like they try to time the stock market. If it works, an it rarely does, you look like a genius. In the long run, most of the time if you just stand pat, provided of course that you have the right commodities in your portfolio, you will come out ahead. Today I’ll give my thoughts on which ballplayers you’ll want to hold on to, and which might end up disappointing you with only a moderate return on your investment.

I still find it rather surprising that so many people seem so willing to toss away Michael Bourn in trade offers. I know he has no homers and seven RBI, but folks, do you realize how good he has been otherwise? Besides hitting .333 this speedster also has a .404 OBP and he’s on pace for 108 runs scored and 59 steals. Deal him at your own peril.

Rafael Furcal is hitting .342 with 15 RBI, 22 runs scored and six steals for the Cardinals reminding everyone that he can still be a dynamic talent when healthy. However, and you know how I hate to bring bad news, the guy has failed to appear in 100 games in three of the past four years so I wouldn’t be at all adverse to anyone trading him while they can because things are bound to get ugly at some point.

Ryan Howard (Achilles), finally, took batting practice Monday for the first time since February. Howard still doesn’t have a target date for a return, but the prevailing wisdom is that he will be back in action, barring any more setbacks of course, in late May or early June. Given his rate of production the past two years – he’s averaged 32 homers and 112 RBI the past two campaigns – if he starts action on June 1st he’d be able to play in 2/3 of the Phillies games this season. That would equate to about 21 homers and 75 RBI. Of course, that’s if he hits the ground running and matches his level of production from the past two seasons. I’m not sure that is going to happen given how much time he has missed (for more on Howard see his Player Profile).

Ask around and people will tell you that Andrew McCutchen has been a major disappointment. I can’t sit here and say I’m not leaning in that direction myself, but let’s keep things in perspective. He’s one hit from batting .300 at .298 which would be a career best. His current .356 OBP is just under his career .364 rate, and that’s despite the fact that his walk rate has gone down by about 40 percent from his career level. He’s also on pace for 29 thefts after averaging 26 his first three big league seasons. The reason he’s been disappointing is that he’s gone 94 at-bats without a home run leading him to a paltry seven RBI. He’s also scored only seven times since the Pirates offense has been so anemic. I’m on record though as a big time McCutchen supporter, an I’m still in that camp.

There’s only one more show for Smash. Who will be named Marilyn – Karen Cartwright or Ivy Lynn? I can’t believe that I just admitted to the world that I actually watch Smash. Go Karen.

Remember when you were panicked because Brandon Morrow had a 4.50 ERA and just nine strikeouts in his first three starts? Hopefully you held on tight to the fire balling righty as he’s gone 3-0 with a 0.41 ERA and 0.74 WHIP over his last three starts. He’s also struck out 20 batters and walked just one in stamping himself as an arm to watch this season.

Sounds like Brad Penny faked an injury to his shoulder to get out of his two year deal with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks in the Japan League (tests showed no structural damage). Count me as shocked. That guy is a joke, has been for years. Regardless, it’s only a matter of time before some team takes the plunge and signs Penny even though his performance since 2008 has been flat out bad: 31-33, 5.11 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 4.79 K/9, 1.64 K/BB.

Dale Thayer got the save for the Padres Monday night. Andrew Cashner, thought by many to be the presumptive favorite for 9th inning work with Huston Street out with a lat injury, threw 39 pitches Sunday so he was likely unavailable meaning we still don’t really know who will serve as the 9th inning arm (Luke Gregerson could also get some work). Cashner has a huge arm, but he also often has no idea where the ball is going. In 13.2 innings he struck out 12 batters but he’s also walked 12. That’s ugly. Thayer, who has more than 170 minor league saves in his minor league career, has walked only one batter in 31 big league innings as the anti-Cashner. You have to think that Cashner who is younger and has the bigger arm will get a crack at the role, but Thayer is there to pick up the pieces in the even that Cashner struggles.

By Ray Flowers

Fact of the Day: May 2nd

Everyone panics when their players start slowly in fantasy baseball. What do I always say, something like ‘stay patient’ I believe? Let’s take the case of Ryan Braun – one of the players that EVERYONE was bashing me for supporting a few days ago.

After action on April 29th Braun was hitting .263 with four homers, 11 RBI an a .822 OPS through 22 games. Those numbers would lead him to a pace of .263-29-81 with that .822 OPS over the course of a season, and there isn’t a single Braun owner in the world that would be happy with that. Still, I said remain patient.

On April 30th, as you all know, Braun went bonkers hitting three bombs, producing four hits (he also had a triple), while scoring three runs and pushing six across the plate. After the game Braun was then on pace for 49 homers, 120 RBI, a .294 average an a .994 OPS.

Think about that.

That one game, because it was so huge and because the season is still so young, vaulted Braun from being on pace for the worst production of his carer to a pace that would net him a career best in homers and RBI while pushing his OPS up to the exact same mark of .994 that he reached in his amazing 2011 season.

Sample size people.

For those of you who may have missed it…

Last week I broke down how the fantasy production of Rickie Weeks and Darwin Barney wasn’t appreciably different since the start of the 2011 season.

Tuesday Tips

Whether your fantasy baseball league is an AL-only, NL-only, mixed league or keeper league, there’s something for you in today’s piece. Promise.

Dylan Bundy, the Orioles uber-prospect who was chosen #4 overall in last years draft leading to him being named the #10 prospect in baseball according to Baseball America, has started out his professional career as if he has no intention of spending much time in the minors. Through five starts in A-Ball he’s walked two batters in 17 innings while he has allowed one hit. That’s three base runners in 17 innings leading to a 0.18 WHIP. He’s also fanned 25 batters and not allowed a run. Time to move him up a level already Orioles?

Zack Cozart is hitting a solid .271 for the season, but that’s likely a disappointment to his owners since he was hitting .342 ten games into the season. Like I said all preseason, and into the season when he was tearing it up, Cozart isn’t at a point in his development when he should be expected to perform at all-star levels. After his recent downturn in production at the dish Cozart is on pace to hit .271 with seven homers, 30 RBI and seven steals. Hate to tell you I told you so but…

Anyone out there realize that Adrian Gonzalez hit .271 with two homers an a .737 OPS in April? As I wrote three weeks ago in Panic In The Streets, AGone hit only one homer last April before finishing the year with 27 bombs so it’s certainly not panic time. However, he did hit .314 with a .836 OPS in a better first stanza to the season last year. For his career his April has led to a .288 batting average and .856 OPS with the OPS being the second lowest of any month from April through September. If you’ve read my stuff you know my thoughts on Gonzalez, but the guy has hit 29 homers in 181 games as a Red Sox. Are you ready to finally admit that I was right back in January of last year when I warned that Adrian may not produce huge homer totals playing half his games at Fenway Park? See ADP Riser: Adrian Gonzalez.

Billy Hamilton of the Reds might be the fastest man in the sport. Rated the 48th best prospect in the game coming into the 2012 season by Baseball America, Hamilton stole 103 bases last year as a 20 year old in Single-A ball. This season he’s off to a stupendous, and that isn’t a term I throw around lightly, pace with the bat as he’s hit .398 through 23 games at High-A ball. But what about the speed you say? Try this on for size. In those 23 games Hamilton has stolen 29 bases to give him 132 steals in his last 158 games. He isn’t likely to appear in the bigs this season, but dynasty leaguers you had better be aware of a guy who plays shortstop who owns the skills of Vince Coleman.

At this point, meaning when I wrote this piece, there are two greatly differing reports on the health of Evan Longoria. One report suggests he has a hamstring or knee situation that may or may not result in him being placed on the DL. The other reports suggests that it’s a hamstring issue that could keep him out for 6-8 weeks. As a Longoria owner I almost upchucked my breakfast this morning when I heard the 6-8 week line of though. Let’s hope that the report was premature and that Longoria will be back in a relatively short period of time cause losing Longo for two months would be a devastating blow to his fantasy squads.

Jed Lowrie is hitting .297 and here we go again. I’m getting questions about people in mixed leagues who really want to add him to the mix. I’ll repeat the same thing I’ve been saying for two years – he’s not that good. For his career his slash line is completely big league average at .256/.328/.409. He’s also stolen only four bases in his career and per 140 games he’s a 12 homer bat. Yippee doodle. It should also be noted that though Lowrie has hit .304 in the month of April in his career that his May-October batting average is .243.

Stephen Strasburg has been as dominating as any pitcher in baseball with a 1.13 ERA, 0.88 WHIP and 34 Ks in 32 innings to start the 2012 season. The most amazing part of his effort though may be this: Strasburg has allowed 22 hits in his 32 innings, and the breakdown is 20 singles, two doubles, zero triples and zero home runs. That’s two extra base hits in 32 innings folks. Wow.

By Ray Flowers

Fact of the Day: April 25th

Since the start of last season, that’s roughly 180 games worth of major league action, how shocking is it to consider that Darwin Barney, Darwin Barney, has been nearly as effective a fantasy performer as Rickie Weeks? I’m not huffing paint either. Take a look at the numbers:

Barney: .278-5-50-75-9
Weeks: .259-23-55-85-10

Weeks has certainly provided more value thanks to that massive difference in home runs, but look at those numbers again.

Weeks has only five more RBI than Barney.
Weeks has scored only 10 more runs than Barney.
Weeks has only one more steal than Barney.
Weeks has hit .019 points lower than Barney.

One guy was a top-10 selection at the position on draft day while the other was lucky if he was a top-20 option at second base. Clearly those preseason rankings were based only on the potential upside of Weeks and not based in the reality of either fellas production.

By Ray Flowers

Fantasy Frown – Upside Down

How fun is fantasy baseball? Instead of bemoaning the struggles of certain players, why don’t we turn that frown upside down and see if there might be some players who have failed to live up to expectations to this point of the season that might be able to lend a boost to our fantasy squad moving forward. That’s a noble goal is it not? I’ll also talk about a former Cy Young winner who may have finally turned the corner, a reliever you’ve never probably heard of who leads baseball in wins, and a former fantasy superstar who is slowing improving physically in his attempt to come back from a mysterious knee injury.

Daniel Bard picked up his first win of the season Monday night, while pitching out of the bullpen, but he is still currently scheduled to make his start on Friday against the White Sox. The Red Sox though may have no other choice than to slot Bard in as their 9th inning arm (even though Bobby Valentine, the Red Sox manager, said that moving Bard back to the pen full time “doesn’t look like a great temptation.”). Bard has 13 Ks in 12.1 innings this season, but he’s also 1-2 with nine walks allowed an a 1.70 WHIP. Even if he had been successful as a starter, the Sox would still have to consider him for the 9th inning since they just can’t afford to give away games late. Alfredo Aceves, Vincente Padilla, Franklin Morales, Justin Thomas… boy do the Sox miss Andrew Bailey. If Bard is on waivers he’s worth adding in the hope that he’ll be asked to work the 9th greatly improving his fantasy value – even though the Red Sox are currently saying that isn’t going to happen.

Erik Bedard is 0-4 though he does have a 2.62 ERA after allowing three or fewer runs in each of his four starts. Wins may be tough to come by for the lefty in Pittsburgh, but I’ll continue to say it – when healthy he can be a mixed league option worthy of pretty much being an every game starter.

Chipper Jones didn’t start again on Monday. He continues to be a daily disaster, you never know when he’s going to be playing, but he also continues to be might successful when on the field. No only is he hitting .276 with two homers and eight RBI in nine games, but he has a .870 OPS. That’s a better number than guys like Miguel Cabrera (.857), Adrian Beltre (.826), Alex Rodriguez (.800) and Jose Bautista (.771).

Tim Lincecum was much better in his fourth start of the season Monday (5 IP, 1 ER, 8Ks, 5 BBs). I got a chance to watch nearly every pitch he tossed, an I liked what I saw. His pitches were darting all over the strike zone, but he wasn’t locked in as he missed the target on many of the pitches. Still, this was an improvement over the way that he opened up the season, so you have to be feeling pretty good if you didn’t panic and decided to hold on to him (or if you dealt to add him).

Kyle Lohse is up to 3-0 with a 0.99 ERA. I’m still not buying it. No way he continues to hold batters to a .170 batting average, and as impressive as his control was last year (2.01 BB per nine), the man isn’t going to continue to walk one batter every 13 innings. Now is the perfect time to sell high. If you don’t, just make sure you remember me when his performance tanks in relation to his current levels.

Vodka and Red Bull – nectar from the gods? Jeff Mans of Fantasy Alarm would agree.

Vulture wins anyone? Robbie Ross has worked five games covering 5.1 innings. All he’s done is rack up three wins. Do you even know what team he is on? Try the Rangers. This is just another example of why it is virtually impossible to predict wins in the fantasy game – Robbie Fricken’ Ross is tied for the major league lead with three victories.

Chase Utley (knee) did some things Monday, and that included fielding grounders. Though he is said to be feeling stronger and making progress, he also admitted that while BP cause him no discomfort that fielding those grounders was still bothering him. There is no timetable in this continually vexing situation that the Phillies have not been able to clarify in the least (apparently Utley doesn’t want his medical information shared, which is his right of course, but it sure plays havoc with what reasonable expectations should be this year). There’s been some discussion of Utley possibly playing some first base when he comes back, though Jim Thome and Ryan Howard obviously can’t play anywhere else on the diamond. I’ll bet that Utley’s bat still has some juice left in it, but it’s growing harder and harder to hold on to him in 12 team mixed leagues unless you have a DL spot.

Miguel Bautista started Game 1 of the Mets/Giants doubleheader Monday. You remember back in 2005 when, a year after going 10-13 with a 4.85 ERA, that the Blue Jays asked Bautista to close leading to 31 saves? Since then he has four saves — in six years.

By Ray Flowers

Quick Starting Pitchers

Most starting pitchers have only taken the mound two or three times. But as we all know in the fantasy game, it’s never too early to try an improve a fantasy squad. Given that line of thought, I decided to discuss some of the under the radar types that are off to strong starts for their respective clubs. I’ll assume the following for the sake of the discussion: we’re in a 12 team mixed league that starts nine pitchers on a weekly basis. There are certainly scenarios in this setup where every pitcher on this list might have some use, but that doesn’t mean any of them should be making 30 starts for you this season in a 12 team setup.

Blake Beavan, Mariners: 1-1, 2.70 ERA, 0.97 WHIP
Beavan hasn’t beat himself in two starts issuing only one free pass, and that will be key for a guy who had only 42 strikeouts last year in 97 innings. Beavan pitches to contact and was successful doing that last year with a 4.27 ERA and 1.25 WHIP over 15 starts. The problem is, that level of production is all you have a right to expect from the Mariners tall righty – and that just doesn’t move the needle.

Kevin Correia, Pirates: 1-0, 1.50 ERA, 0.83 WHIP
In two starts he has been the quintessential ‘let the batters put the ball in play and let my defense work for me’ type. Through 12 innings he’s only walked three batters while striking out just five. However, he’s also pitched in two solid pitcher’s barns in Los Angeles and San Francisco, and that’s likely part of the reason for his success. Also, don’t fool yourself, Correia simply isn’t a very good hurler. For his career, and we’re over 900-innings now, he’s posted a 4.56 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 6.23 K/9 and 1.86 K/BB. Simply put, he’s as blah as blah gets though it should be noted that in his last 16 starts on the road his ERA is 2.45 while his WHIP is 1.09.

Matt Harrison, Rangers: 2-0, 0.64 ERA, 1.07 WHIP
The Twins and the White Sox did little against Harrison who has picked right up from where he was last season when he won 14 games with a 3.89 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. Harrison has a heavy ball that leads to a lot of grounders, but he’s not an elite ground ball hurler (46 percent of batted balls). Given that he doesn’t miss many bats and that he had a career best 6.11 K/9 mark last season, his margin for error isn’t exactly large. With wins being variable, this isn’t a skill set that necessarily points to long term fantasy success, but he should be pretty solid.

Rick Porcello, Tigers: 1-0, 1.84 ERA, 0.89 WHIP
A first round selection in 2007, Porcello has the stuff to be a major asset to the Tigers. The Rays and White Sox witnessed that first hand as Rick went seven innings against both club while issuing just  single free pass in the process. Poised to produce a breakout, this ground ball ace still isn’t an overly intriguing fantasy option (52 percent of batted balls end up rolling through the infield grass). Why is that? The lack of strikeouts of course. I target starters with a K/9 mark of at least six. Through 91 big league starts Porcello has been deficient with a 4.84 mark. Again, real world success is certainly possible, but in 12 team mixed leagues Porcello is more of a match up option than someone you should be rolling out there every week.

Joe Saunders, D’backs: 1-0, 0.64 ERA, 1.00 WHIP
A two-start pitcher this week, Saunders followed up seven shutout innings against the Padres by allowing one run over seven innings against the Pirates Monday. Saunders is as blah as it gets. Just take a look at his numbers over 163 career starts: 4.11 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 5.03 K/9, 1.75 K/BB, 1.27 GB/FB. Purely a matchup option, I’d hope that Saunders is only being used when he’s facing the Pirates or Padres, or when he’s starting twice in a week.

Jake Westbrook, Cardinals: 2-0, 0.64 ERA, 0.86 WHIP
Like so many others on this list, Westbrook is a better real world pitcher than he is a fantasy weapon. Westbrook lasted seven innings in each of his first two starts, and his ratios are wonderful. Still, he has only four punchouts in the two games while he’s issued five free passes. Westbrook will win games, and he’s looked pretty strong since spring, but the guys has a career ERA of 4.30, a WHIP of 1.39 and his career best for Ks is 128. I’ll pass.

By Ray Flowers

Early Season Standouts

For some reason my fantasy baseball article today deals with players whose names all start with an “S” or lower in the alphabet. It wasn’t a plan mind you, I don’t have some deviously delectable ulterior motive, it just worked out that way. How about that?

Hector Santiago is the closer for the White Sox, a move that I didn’t understand at the time it appeared to be taking shape (see Lunacy in Chicago?). Less than two weeks in the experiment has been a success, but still, it hasn’t been smooth sailing. Santiago is three for four in converting saves but he blew his last outing and has allowed three runs over his last three innings. Even worse, the guy has already been taken yard three times in four innings on the season. He is still the White Sox arm to own if you are looking for saves, but tread carefully here cause this story is not yet ready to be made into a Hallmark Movie of the Week.

Stephen Strasburg flat out dominates hitters. Period. A prime example of this fact is that over his last 50.1 innings no one has elevated a pitching into the seats. On the negative side, everyone was weary of Strasburg because of the 160 IP limit he was placed on. Well, turns out, the 160 IP limit was completely a media driven number. The team never actually said they would limit Stephen to 160 innings. From Big League Stew over at Yahoo:

“Look, the media put (the 160-innings limit) out there, not me.” Nat’s GM Mike Rizzo said. “It probably comes from what Jordan Zimmerman pitched last year… “I don’t have a specific pitch count in my mind, a specific innings count in my mind… when we feel he’s had enough, we’re going to shut him down.”

What all of that means is that Strasburg isn’t likely to throw 200-innings this year but there also isn’t an artificial floor of 160-innings for him this season either.

B.J. Upton is finally close to a return. He was supposed to only miss a couple of days after running into Desmond Jennings, but that “couple of days” has stretched out to weeks. He went 2-for-4 Monday night and will likely appear in two more minor league games before being activated to return to the lineup on Friday against the Twins. Now might be your last chance to acquire him on the cheap. Speaking of Jennings, he does have four hits the last two days, though that has only brought up his slash line to the following levels: .250/.333/.300. I’m not going to condemn or exalt any player based on 10 games, but this is not exactly the start that Jennings owners were hoping for. In addition to that terrible slash line Jennings has also failed to go deep and he has a whopping 12Ks.

Chase Utley (knee) is improving according to the latest report from Phillies GM Ruben Amaro. Here’s the quote. “His strength seems to be improving,” Amaro said. “He’s moving forward.” Uh Ruben, what the hell does that mean? I’m improving from yesterday too since I got a good nights sleep. The Phillies continue to be, lets just say difficult, when it comes to updates with Utley. It almost feels like they are guarding the secrets to cold fusion.

Matt Wieters went bananas Monday night with three hits to raise his average to .344. Two of the hits were homers, and he also plated five runners, leaving him with four homers and nine RBI through nine games (how is he only owned in 82 percent of leagues over at Fleaflicker?). This is the type of production everyone thought was possible when he was taken 55th overall in the 2007 draft. It’s very early, but it’s possible that we’re finally witnessing the emergence of a supremely gifted talent who could, if everything breaks right, end the year as the most valuable catcher in the fantasy game.

I’ve long been a fan of Chris Young. Not the broken down hurler but the dynamic outfielder of the D’backs. Ranked #25 in the BBGuys Preseason Draft Guide in the outfield, he’s been a top-25 overall player in the early going. In point of fact, Young has been a top-5 overall performer thanks to a .405 average, five homers, seven RBI and two steals. Despite all that greatness the most amazing part of his early season heroics might be his BB/K ratio of 1.20. It won’t hold up, he’s never had a mark above 0.58, but his ratio has improved for 4-straight seasons showing the type of growth that is indicative of a player who could bust loose for a monster season.

By Ray Flowers

Panic in the Streets

 It’s early in the fantasy baseball season, but that doesn’t mean that certain people aren’t already in full on panic mode. Are you one of those folks? I’ll offer some advice on why it might make a lot of sense to remain patient. I’ll also break down two huge money deals given to two of the best second baseman in the game.

It’s almost as if Godzilla was thundering down the street smashing everything in his way. Or perhaps that was Chicken Little running down the street screaming that the sky is  falling. Or perhaps the fella running wildly with his shirt off is one of those people who are convinced that the world will end upon the completion of the 2012 calendar year.

Truth be told, it’s probably someone in your fantasy league. There has to be, has to be, at least one person in your league who is already willing to blow up their team. I know this to be a fact because you should see all the questions I’ve been getting at the BaseballGuys Twitter page. Obviously a week worth of games isn’t even close to enough data to make a judgment about anything. It just isn’t despite what people may be telling you. The baseball season is 162 games long. Like a fine wine, you have to give it time to reach it’s peak. Stay the course and remain patient. Let me drop some knowledge on you all. Here are the 2011 April numbers of a few of the stars of the game. Did all of them not rebound and produce solid fantasy seasons last year?

Brett Gardner hit .188 in April of 20111. He finished the year at .259.
Carlos Lee hit .194. He finished the year at .275.
Nick Markakis hit .204. He finished the year at .284.

Jimmy Rollins hit one home run in April of 2011. He finished with 16 homers.
Adrian Gonzalez hit one homer. He finished with 27 homers.
Jhonny Peralta hit one homer. He finished with 21 homers.
Aramis Ramirez hit one homer. He finished with 26 homers.
Carlos Gonzalez hit one homer. He finished with 26 homers.

Michael Cuddyer had four RBIs in April of 2011. He finished with 70.
Dustin Pedroia had eight RBIs. He finished with 91 RBIs.
Freddie Freeman had eight RBIs. He finished with 76 RBIs.
Dan Uggla had nine RBIs. He finished the year with 82 RBIs.
Giancarlo Stanton had nine RBIs. He finished the year with 87 RBIs.

Ryan Dempster had a 9.58 ERA in April of 2011. He finished the year at 4.80.
Javier Vazquez had a 6.39 ERA. He finished the year at 3.69.
Yovani Gallardo had a 5.70 ERA. He finished the year at 3.52.
Daniel Hudson had a 5.64 ERA. He finished the year at 3.49.

It’s a looooong season. If you own a proven player, or an elite level talent who struggles out of the gate, it would be wise to think very carefully about whether or not dropping that player will be in your best interest.

SEPARATED AT BIRTH?

Ian Kinsler was signed to a five year deal worth $75 million to remain with the Rangers. That’s a lot of coin, but given how productive that Kinsler has been, you have to think that the Rangers won’t regret it. Even with all the issues he always has staying healthy, he’s appeared in more than 145 games just one time, an “average” Kinsler season has led to a .276 average, 21 homers, 67 RBI, 94 runs and 23 steals even though that same “average” season has only taken up 130 games played. If he can somehow up that number to 145+ games, well, let’s just say everyone will be grinning from ear to ear.

Speaking of second sackers, Brandon Phillips is on the cusp of agreeing to a 6-year, $72.5 million deal to stay with the Reds according to Jim Bowden. Phillips, who is a year older than Kinsler, has been a Red since 2006, and over those six seasons his “average” effort has led to a .280 average, 21 homers, 81 RBI, 87 runs scored and 23 steals. Amazing how close those numbers are to what Kinsler has put up, isn’t it? By the way, Phillips is currently dealing with a hamstring that cramped up Monday night. The team thinks he should be fine, but he could miss a few days.

So did the Reds or the Rangers get the best deal?

By Ray Flowers

What We Learned

The regular season still hasn’t officially gotten underway for all the teams, great scheduling MLB, but that issue will finally be rectified Friday. We do have a fair number of baseball games in the books, so what did we learn that we might be able to apply to the world of fantasy baseball?

Jose Bautista already qualifies as a third baseman and outfielder. On opening day he also moved over to play first base after the Jays removed Adam Lind in favor of a pinch runner. It’s only one game, but it hints that Bautista just might play five or 10 games at the position this year, the threshold in many leagues for a player to pick up positional eligibility which would only further enhance his obvious value.

Life isn’t always fair. Exhibit #1
Justin Verlander pitches eight scoreless innings and picked up a no-decision after Jose Valverde blew the save after not blowing a single one of his 49 opportunities last season. The guy who blew the game, Valverde, ended up with the victory when the Tigers came back to win. Remember what I always say about chasing victories? Or how about how I always say that you should never use a pitchers won-loss record as a judge of his performance? See what I’m saying?

Life isn’t always fair. Exhibit #2
Jon Lester didn’t quite match Verlander Thursday, but he pitched very well allowing just one run in seven innings. He ended up with a no-decision when the Red Sox bullpen blew it. Mark Melancon ended up with the loss, but it was Alfredo Aceves who actually deserved the loss (for my thoughts on the Red Sox Bullpen see: Relievers, Wild, Wild, West). He came into the game, hit a batter, and then gave up the game winning hit. Still, Aceves escaped with an unblemished record despite not getting an out in the effort.

You’re daily talk about closers… the Royals settled on Jonathan Broxton as their lead man in the 9th inning. At one time one of my favorites, Broxton was amazing in 2009 when he won seven games, saved 36, posted a 2.61 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP and had a dominating 13.50 K/9 mark. Seasons like that lead you to the Hall of Fame. Unfortunately for Broxton, it’s his only season of more than 22 saves, and it was also the last time he was an effective big league pitcher. Over the last two seasons Broxton has been injured an just passable in terms of his production: 6-8, 4.32 ERA an a 1.55 WHIP. He still struck out 9.96 batters per nine innings, but he only threw 75 innings in the two seasons as he just couldn’t stay healthy. I can understand why the Royals went with him in the 9th, he has the most experience of their bullpen arms and could bring a nice return if moved at the trade deadline (he’s on a one year deal), but I’m still not convinced he is going to be able to hold off Greg Holland all year.

Josh Collmenter was lucky as all heck last year to post a 3.38 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over 154.1 innings. He didn’t strike anyone out (5.83 per nine), had a terrible GB/FB ratio (0.71) and seemingly got by mostly on his funky delivery. He looked lost all spring training and it won’t take much for the team to consider moving him to the bullpen, not with Trevor Bauer looking ready to give it a go in the majors. In his first start of the year at Double-A Bauer allowed just two hits and no runs, while striking out seven, in five innings.

Johnny Cueto ended last season with a 2.31 ERA but he threw only 156 innings falling short of qualifying for the NL ERA crown (a pitcher needs 162 innings). Well, he added to that excellence in his first start as he tossed seven shutout innings for the Reds. He induced 10 ground balls continuing a trend he started last season of generating a ton of ground balls. Speaking of the Reds, Aroldis Chapman looked completely dominating with two strikeout in a hitless 8th inning. When he is locating his pitches batters stand nary a chance of making hard contact.

Edinson Volquez allowed only three hits and two runs in five innings in his first start with the Padres. Unfortunately he picked up a loss as he walked four batters, including two with the bases loaded. All he needs to do is to throw strikes to be effective. The question is, can he?

By Ray Flowers