The Old, The Young and The Pretty

Chris Carpenter was traded. Tommy Hanson has a concussion. Matt Moore won’t have an innings pitched limit. The Dodgers named their closer, an it’s not who you think. Raul Ibanez is a Yankee. Katharine McPhee is… well you have to keep reading for that.

RHP Chris Carpenter was traded to the Red Sox today. I know, crazy isn’t it? Oh wait, we’re talking about the 26 year old former Cub, not the Cy Young winning Chris Carpenter of the Cardinals. How made are you at me right now?

Tommy Hanson, who is attempting to return from shoulder woes, has reworked his mechanics to take better advantage of his lower half (i.e. his legs). While that sounds like a good thing, mechanical alterations for pitcher’s always make me a bit nervous. Now we get word that Hanson was involved in a car accident yesterday and that he received a Grade 1 concussion that will likely preclude him from doing anything for a few days. I know it’s early, but are you getting the unsettling feeling that things may not go Hanson’s way this year?

Raul Ibanez signed a one year deal for $1.1 million to join the Yankees. The 39 year old Ibanez is nothing more than an AL-only play at this stage of his career. The expectation at this point is that he will form a solid DH duo with Andruw Jones. If we combine the 2011 production of Jones against lefties and Ibanez against righties the result would be a “player” who produced the following 5×5 line: .263-24-85-36-2. The homer and RBI production is solid, but what is it with these guys aversion to crossing home plate?

Ever do situps first thing in the morning? I tried it today, an I gotta tell ya, not a huge fan. Of course, I have to keep the temple that is my body in shape, so I did it anyway while reading the newspaper (yeah I’m one of those dinosaurs who actually gets a newspaper).

Don Mattingly told Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times Tuesday that “I’m going into camp thinking Javy Guerra is the guy.” Of course he meant the 9th inning arm for the Dodgers. I know that Kenley Jansen has a huge arm, and I’m a big proponent of the record setting fireballer (see the October 6th Around the Horn), but Guerra did stabilize a Dodgers’ bullpen that was a disaster last year and in the process he only blew two of 23 save chances. With the announcement today I wonder if people will change their drafting strategy since Jansen’s ADP is 176, roughly 60 picks ahead of Guerra (233) – numbers are from MockDraftCentral.

Big news out of the Rays camp Tuesday is that the club will not have an innings pitched limit for phenom Matt Moore. Executive VP Andrew Friedman said that the arm of Moore has been “built up in a pretty systematic way” which would seem to signal that he could be allowed to toss 200-innings this year. The Rays have certainly shown the ability to develop pitching over the years so I’m inclined to trust them here. If Moore does throw 200 innings he’ll finish the year as a top-10 AL strikeout arm who could live up the billing that has his current ADP sitting at 102.4.

Manny Ramirez will arrive at Athletics camp on Friday. He’ll make $306,000 on his pro-rated contract which tells you that he really is intent on returning to the game because a guy who has made nearly $207 million in his career certainly doesn’t need a few more bucks. He’s an AL-only grab, but he did hit .298 with a .870 OPS in 90 games in 2010 so he might be worth a reserve round add.

I admit it, I’ve watched the first two episodes of Smash (albeit with the controller in my hand to fast forward the slow parts). I know that Katharine McPhee never really made it as a singer, but something about her persona on screen is certainly enticing.

Johan Santana is throwing without pain, an everyone is getting excited. Let me say it again – don’t be one of that group.  He’s coming back off major shoulder surgery and his performance has dipped year over year the past few seasons. Let him be a headache for someone else.

Don’t forget to pick up a copy of the 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide.

By Ray Flowers

Friday’s Fantasy Flight

No, I won’t be sampling wines for you on this day, I’ll just be taking a look around the league touching on Ryan Braun’s suspension, CC Sabathia’s lack of girth, Phil Hughes hype, Tim Wakefield’s retirement and more. I know, how exciting.

There is still no resolution in the Ryan Braun PED case. I don’t know about you, but I get the feeling that the longer this drags on the more likely it is that the 50 game suspension is going to be reduced.

Gary Carter passed away yesterday at age 57. Carter finished his career with 324 homers, 1,225 RBI, 2,092 hits, 11 All-Star game appearances and a spot in the Hall of Fame. The world is worse off with his passing.

I’m still sitting on that A.J. Burnett article I wrote a week ago. Yankees, trade the guy so that I can finally post this sucker (apparently the Yankees will pay $20 of the $33 million left on his deal, but because there is money involved the Commissioners Office has to get involved before the deal with the Pirates can become official).

Don’t buy the Phil Hughes hype that is already coming out of Yankees beat writers. For my thoughts on the hurler see his Player Profile.

Did you see this insane story that the Jim Leyland plans on getting Brandon Inge some work at second base this spring? Jimmy, you are kidding right? Inge, at one time a plus defender at third base, has never played second base as a professional. I understand that the Tigers might be non-plussed by guys like Danny Worth, Ramon Santiago and Ryan Raburn, but Brandon Inge? Over the last five seasons Inge has hit better than .240 just a single time and he batted .197 last year proving that he simply isn’t a major league caliber hitter any more. As for Raburn, he too has issues, but he finished on a tear last year hitting .341 with a .967 OPS over his last 45 games. Why the team wouldn’t give him a shot instead of Inge is beyond me. Don’t look for Inge to play second base — this story seems like sheer folly to me.

Last night went great by the way. There’s no telling what the weekend might hold. If I didn’t tell you all, 2012 is the Year of Ray…

Craig Kimbrel and Jonny Venters both focused more on training their bodies than throwing this offseason. Both felt that after they made 79 and 85 appearances that building up their stamina an bodies was as important as anything. Venters reportedly gained about seven pounds of muscle. In a related news story I curled a 10 lbs. weight yesterday in my garage.

It’s that time of year, and we’re getting the ‘he reported in great shape’ reports again. Here’s one. CC Sabathia has lost a lot of weight this offseason according to Buster Olney. That’s good news as he was threatening to play Godzilla in the remake with only green paint on since his girth wasn’t in need of a costume.

THE AARP CROWD

Jason Varitek hasn’t decided if he will retire. Let me make it easy for you Jason – hang em up. You’re still a highly respected signal caller, but your defensive acumen is on the wane, and the last time you hit .240 was 2007. Varitek has hit .256 in his career with 193 homers and 757 RBI in more than 1,500 games played.

Tim Wakefield has decided to retire. Wakefield won 200 games in his career and saved 22 in over 3,200 innings. He was never an elite fantasy option, but he won 16 games twice, on two other occasions he also won 17 games, and from 1995 through 2011 he tossed less than 140 innings just one time (129.2 in 2009). I wish someone would teach me the knuckleball. Let’s hope that scouts don’t push knucklers out of the game forever – they give us hope that we could pitch in the big leagues.

Brandon Webb is throwing off flat ground. I wish him the best, but he’s through. Webb threw four innings in 2009 then none in 2010 and 2011. It’s a sad end to what was shaping up to be an excellent career. From 2005-08 an average Webb season resulted in 18 wins, a 3.23 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 181 Ks and 232 innings pitched. To say that he was a fantasy beast is a vast understatement.

By Ray Flowers

One Of Those Days

You ever have one of those days? You know the type. You wake up with a little bit of an extra pep in your step. The morning sun hits your face as you sip on your hot coco. You’re looking forward to a good day of work which will then be capped off by an evening with someone you care about. What could be better than those simple pleasures, right?

And then the real world smacks you in the face.

That happened to me today. Oh there’s still plenty of time to turn things around, it’s still well before 11 AM as I write this, but darned if life doesn’t just try and beat you down whenever it can. Why is that (in case you are wondering, nothing “really” bad happened to me, it was actually more about typical annoyances)?

In the vein of “bad days,” here are some guys that have had life beat them down of late. Hopefully they’ve got some Bailey’s Irish Cream to throw in that hot coco.

Alejandro De Aza – A solid option really late in drafts for the speed upside, that outlook was crushed when the White Sox decided to add Kosuke Fukudome to the outfield mix. So much for that 26th round pick of De Aza offering much of anything. He’s now merely an AL-only option.

Josh Hamilton – No need to pile on here. Let’s just hope that he gets his life back on track. A positive note came out Thursday. Hamilton will not face any discipline from the Rangers or Major League Baseball for his recent off the field transgressions with the bottle.

Scott Kazmir – He was supposed to throw for interested parties on Wednesday, but for some unknown reason the session was pushed back until Friday (he claims it has nothing to do with any physical sort of limitations and the most likely explanation is that some team that had an interest likely wasn’t going to be able to present at his throwing session on Wednesday). What the hell happened to Kazmir by the way? Just 28 years old, it’s amazingly easy to forget that it was a mere couple of years back that he was locked at as one of the up an coming lefties in the game. He wasn’t just coming on to fill a 4th or 5th rotation spot either. Kazmir was going to be an elite hurler. In 2005 he posted a 8.42 K/9 mark in 186 innings. In 2006 he upped that number to 10.14 over 144.2 innings. In 2007, his best campaign, he won 13 games, posted a 3.48 ERA and struck out a significant total of 239 batters in 206.2 innings. Those K’s led to a 10.41 K/9 mark which just so happens to be the 8th best mark that any left-handed pitcher, who threw at least 162 innings, has been able to post in the 21st century (if we remove Randy Johnson’s efforts that would put Kazmir’s mark in the 4th spot). Alas problems with his conditioning and dedication came up, and his arm ran out of juice (his average fastball was 93.7 mph as a rookie, 92.6 mph in his second season, and it dipped all the way to 86.5 mph in his 1.2 inning outing last year for the Angels). He’s still young enough to carve out a role but he will never reach the heights that were predicted.

Derrek Lee – I know he’s older at 36 years of age, and that he struggled for much of the season last year, but Lee still hit .267 with 19 homers in just 435 at-bats. So why is he still without a team? Certainly there are offers on the table for Lee, likely as a part-time option, so I’m going to assume that Lee is holding out for a starting gig somewhere. I find it hard to believe that there are 30 better first basemen out there right now but he’s still sitting at home.

Johan Santana – Coming back from shoulder surgery, all eyes are on the one time superstar of the Mets, but come on now. Did you see the report that the Mets’ pitching coach – Dan Warthen – was impressed by a video of Santana throwing. Really? I’ve got better things for you to watch on your laptop Dan than Santana chucking the ball around – maybe an episode of Grimm? Did you also see the report that he was throwing from 175 feet? Whoopie freaking do. I haven’t regularly thrown the ball in about 10 years and I could go our and play catch from 175 feet. That means nothing. Johan plans on throwing at the Mets’ camp today so I guess the eyes of the baseball nation will be upon him. Newsflash everyone. Santana will never again be the pitcher he once was. As if age, workload and shoulder surgery weren’t enough to worry about, have you bothered to look at his numbers the last few years? I can list one series of numbers for you that should make you exceedingly nervous, even if he is healthy once more in 2012. Here are his K/BB ratios the past six seasons (remember, he didn’t throw a big league pitch in 2011): 5.29, 5.21, 4.52, 3.27, 3.17 and 2.62. Uh, that’s not a good trend even if the 2.62 K/BB ratio he posted in 2010 is still well above average.

By Ray Flowers

To purchase the 2012 BBGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, click on the link.

The Catcher’s Position

I say it every year – the catcher’s position is a field filled with landmines. There are certainly options that are elite when it comes to offensive output, but at the same time there is always an inherent risk with anyone who wears the tools of ignorance (Victor Martinez injured his knee – a torn ACL – knocking him out for the season. Was it the result of wear and tear? We may never know.). So what are my thoughts on how you should handle the catchers position, especially if you are in a league (as you should be) that has two starting backstops?

Consider the following.

Strike One.

Last year only one catcher appeared in 150 games – Carlos Santana (155).

Last year four catchers appeared in 140 games – Martinez, Alex Avila, Miguel Montero and John Buck.

Last year six catchers appeared in 130 games – Yadier Molina, Matt Wieters, Jonathan Lucroy, Kurt Suzuki, Carlos Ruiz and Miguel Olivo.

In total we have 11 catcher eligible players who appeared in 130 games, or, to put it another way, there were only 11 catchers who appeared in more than 80 percent of their teams games. How about this – there were only 11 catchers who missed as few as a month worth of games. Think about that for a moment. If you were in a 15 team league last year you had about a 50 percent chance that your starter  behind the dish missed a month worth of game action. That alone should cause you pause when you think about reaching early for a catcher. Hidden inside this digression about games played is the point I brought up at the start – that is the fact that injuries are a huge issue for a backstop. Do you really want to spend a high level pick on a player that is, in the best case scenario, going to miss 15 percent of his teams games? What if there was a fair amount of risk that even that number would be missed (i.e. another injury – think Mike Napoli who is still dealing with an ankle injury from last season)?

Strike Two.

How about this one – how many catchers stole 10 or more bases last year? The answer is zero. Moreover, only four eligible catchers even stole five bases (Russell Martin 8, Miguel Olivo 6, Chris Iannetta 6 and Santana 5). Strike two is a total lack of speed from the player who you will have fill the catcher’s position. There simply no juice at all from backstops in the steals category.

Strike Three.

How about we talk about batting average. Amongst catcher eligible players who had 400 plate appearances do you know how many hit .290? The answer is four – V-Mart (.330) Napoli (.320), Yadier Molina (.305) and Alex Avila (.295). That’s a pretty high batting mark, so let’s drop the qualification down to .275. How many catchers hit .275? The answer is just seven (add in A.J. Pierzynski .287, Carlos Ruiz .283 and Miguel Montero .282). If we drop that number down to .270 we only add two more guys (Yorvit Torrealba .273 and Brian McCann .270). So all told we’ve got nine, not nineteen but nine, catchers who had 400 plate appearances that also hit just .270. Clearly catcher isn’t the place to look for batting average help.

Strike Four.

Is there big time power at the catchers spot? The answer is not really (five catchers hit 20 homers in 2012: Mike Napoli 30, Carlos Santana 27, Brian McCann 24, J.P. Arencebia 23 and Matt Wieters 22). The reason, chiefly, is that they just don’t play enough games. There were nine other catchers who hit between 15 and 19 homers, but that makes my point for me doesn’t it? After a mere handful of guys, pretty much any catcher you will draft is going to hit you something like 15 homers. If the difference between the #6 guy at the position in homers and the #14 guys is just four homers, less than one a month, does it really matter who your catcher is? Further, there were also four more catchers who hit 14 homers (that brings the total to 18 backstops who went deep at least 14 times). The bottom line here is that there was a lot of parody at the catcher’s position, at least in terms of the power output they provide.

I know you have to take a catcher, and I know it matters who you end up with. There is no doubt that there is a significant difference between Mike Napoli and Kurt Suzuki, but my point is that I’m concerned enough about the potential injury situation to always be reluctant to spend big on a catcher. Further, with most catchers missing so much playing time, it just doesn’t make much sense to reach for a catcher. In addition, no catcher is a five category contributor which should further diminish the value of those players at the position. I’m not suggesting you wait until your stuck drafting the #19 and #23 catchers as your starters, but at the same time I’m also much more comfortable targeting catchers in the 8-15 range than I am reaching early, or waiting late, on getting my backstop duo.

Check out the link to Fleaflicker for their rankings on the catcher’s position.

By Ray Flowers

Can You Wait on Pitching?

On Sunday night on Livin’ the Fantasy on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio, we did a mock draft. Given that I’ve done so many mock drafts, an it gets old dominating every time (I’m so modest), I thought I would change things up an implement a crazy plan to see if I could do something highly unconventional (to say the least), and still put together a squad to be feared. Before I get to how my team turned out, here are the rules.

5×5 scoring
Mixed League
12 teams
Hitters: C, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI, CI, OF, OF, OF, OF, OF, UT
Pitcher: Any nine

Drafting out of the nine hole, I decided to see what would happen if I started out taking 5-straight outfielders. Check out the powerhouse outfield I was able to assemble in the first five rounds, it’s as impressive a unit as you’ll come across – Carlos Gonzalez, Andrew McCutchen, Carl Crawford, B.J. Upton and Shane Victorino. Down Crawford for his poor performance in 2011, and Upton for his poor batting average, but that’s as dynamic a group of five outfielders you could possibly assemble. All five men are going 15/15 in 2012 if they are healthy, and it’s possible, even if not probable, that all five could go 20/20.

You’re saying to yourself – well that’s great Ray but your team is going to stink since you took this tact at the draft table. My reply is hogwash. Let’s take a look at my offensive squad.

C: Yadier Molina, Chris Iannetta
1B: Mark Reynolds
2B: Howie Kendrick
3B: Pablo Sandoval
MI/CI: Daniel Murphy, Martin Prado
OF: Carlos Gonzalez, Andrew McCutchen, Carl Crawford, B.J. Upton, Shane Victorino
UT: Alex Rios

I have a couple of average killers in Upton, Reynolds an Iannetta, but I was able to add Prado who should bounce back to hit .300 (see his Player Profile) and Daniel Murphy (see his Player Profile) to help offset those guys (not to mention .300 types like Sandoval, Kendrick and CarGo that I also rostered). I’ve also got positional flexibility with the following guys qualifying in at least two spots: Reynolds, Kendrick, Murphy and Prado. I really like this unit, and if a guy like Alex Rios bounces back like I hope/expect (see his Player Profile) then this unit will be terrific.

OK, so my offense rocked, but what about my pitching? This is where PART II of my plan came into being. Not only did I take five outfielders with my first five picks, I waited until the 14th round to take my first pitcher (I took my last offensive player, my second catcher, in round 23, but from rounds 14-22 it was pitcher-rama). So my staff must be awful waiting that long to grab arms right? You be the judge.

Brandon Morrow
Ryan Madson
Cory Luebke
Kenley Jansen
Joe Nathan
Ryan Dempster
Frank Francisco
Ricky Nolasco
Bud Norris

OK my ratios may not be great, but I three closers (Madson, Nathan and Francisco) who could give me 90 saves. I also grabbed Jansen who might be one of the five most electric pitchers in baseball. If he closes 30 saves will happen. If he serves as a setup man in Los Angeles he might lead all relievers in baseball in strikeouts. Either way, this is an impressive foursome out of the bullpen (since I waited so long on starters I thought it would make sense to try and build a strong group of relievers to challenge for the lead in saves and to also help keep my ratios in check).

As for my starters, again, their ratios may not impress. But I ask you this – how many other teams in the league have five starters who appear to be well on their way to at least 150 strikeouts? Look at these strikeout totals from last year: Morrow (203), Dempster (191), Luebke (154 in 139.2 IP), Nolasco (148) and Norris (176). Remember that I didn’t take a single hurler until the 14th round. I’ll take a staff with power arms like this almost every day of the week.

Could a team like this, heck could this team, win a championship? I certainly think it could. I also hope that this little off kilter operation will help to point out that you don’t have to, no matter what anyone says, jump into the pitcher hopper early in drafts (in this draft pitchers went way too early with seven taken in the first 28 picks). Remember, I would still, in an actual draft, have six or seven bench rounds to bolster my pitching staff, and that opportunity to build more depth would certainly provide me plenty of chances to grab some arms that could bring me solid performances in 2012. It may have not come about in a conventional manner, but I like the way this squad turned out. What about you?

 DRAFT RESULTS

By Ray Flowers

Third Base: A Wasteland?

The assumption in 2012 is that third base is a shallow position in fantasy baseball. Over at MockDraftCentral people seem to be agreeing with that line of thought as everyone is jumping in early to roster their man at the hot corner. There are nine third baseman going in the top-85 selections, and that doesn’t include Jose Bautista who would bring that number to ten (he’s listed as an outfielder though he obviously qualifies at third base). After that group there are three other third base eligible players going in picks 85-200… a vast span of time for only three third sackers to be drafted. So what’s going on at third base? Some thoughts follow.

Last year only three third base eligible performers hit .300: Michael Young (.338), Aramis Ramirez (.306) and Jose Bautista (.302).

Last year four third base eligible performers hit 30 homers: Bautista (43), Mark Reynolds (37), Adrian Beltre (32) and Evan Longoria (31).

Last year only three third base eligible performers posted 100 runs batted in: Young (106), Beltre (105) and Bautista (103).

Last year only one third base eligible player had 90 runs scored: Bautista (105).

All told, shockingly, there were three third base eligible players who hit .270 with 20 homers, 75 RBI and 75 runs scored. Those are certainly solid numbers no doubt, but only three guys were able to hit all three benchmarks (Bautista, Beltre and Ramirez)? Clearly there is a lack of stardom at the hot corner, or is there?

In 2012 injuries limited Pablo Sandoval to 117 games, David Wright to 102, Ryan Zimmerman to 101 and Alex Rodriguez to 99.  What if all of those guys play 140 games in 2012? That would give us eight guys to count on (in addition to the three above players who hit all four benchmarks).

That group of seven doesn’t include Evan Longoria who is going in the top-15 in every draft this season. That’s gets us up to eight third sackers.

Kevin Youkilis appeared in only 120 games last year, but the pace he set, if he played 145 games, would equate to 21 homer,s, 97 RBI and 82 runs. That’s nine quality third baseman.

Mark Reynolds may only be a .225 type of hitter, but his power and run production is elite. The last three years he has hit 113 homers, the most at the position. He has 273 RBI, the third highest total at the position. He’s also scored 261 runs, second to Longoria (274) amongst third sackers. That’s 10 quality third basemen.

Brett Lawrie is going off the board as the 5th third baseman ahead of Arod. I may not think he deserves to go that high despite oodles of talent, but even if I were to knock him down the board substantially he’s still a guy who everyone could agree is worthy of a top-12 pick.

Though Michael Young hit only 11 homers last season he hit .338, knocked in 106 runners and scored 88 times. Pretty sure he belongs in the top-12 at the hot corner.

So that’s 12 third basemen that you can pretty easily turn to. If you’re in a 12 team league that means nearly everyone who comes to the dance will have a hottie to hold (and this discussion hasn’t even included guys like Miguel Cabrera and Hanley Ramirez who will be playing third base this year).
You want more love at third?

David Freese was the MVP of the world during the playoffs last year. For more on Freese see his Player Profile.

Ryan Roberts hit 19 homers, stole 18 bases and he scored 86 runs, the third highest total at the position.

Mike Moustakas, according to most observers, is a 25-90 bat waiting to happen.

Chase Headley has the potential to go 15/15 and score plenty of runs with his approach. OK, maybe that’s a stretch, but he still has talent (see his Player Profile).

I could go on and talk about former elite level prospects like Mat Gamel and Pedro Alvarez and why it makes sense to take a shot on both late in drafts this season, but I think the point has been made. While third base may be a little top heavy, I’d argue that unless you’re in a deep league that you should feel pretty confident that there are enough men who man the hot corner to go around.

By Ray Flowers

First Base Mediocrity?

In years past, first base was the land of offensive titans. To a certain extent that still is the case with names like Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols, Joey Votto, Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez etc. However, once you get past the elite options at first base, let’s say outside the top-10 or 12, there are a whole bunch of options that have similar outlooks for 2012. I’ll break down some of those players in today’s piece (for my rankings of first baseman, and all the positions, go pick up a copy of my 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide).

The old and boring: Lance Berkman, Carlos Pena, Carlos Lee
All three of these guys are certain to provide plenty of production in 2012, though all have seen their best days pass them buy. Berkman turned back the clock last year but there are questions. How will he do without Pujols? After two years of less than 140-games played, can he reasonably be expected to make 145 appearances again? Even if he stays healthy, where did last year’s production come from after two down years? Pena will hit his 28 homers and knock in his 80 runs like he has the past five years. He’s also failed to hit .230 the last three years and has gotten so bad against lefties (.133 in 120 ABs last year) that he may not face many of them in 2012. Lee also qualifies at outfield which is nice, and he has hat 19 homers and 80 RBI each of the past 12 years. Still, there’s not much going on here anymore.

The young and boring: Freddie Freeman, Gaby Sanchez
Freeman reportedly gained 15 lbs of muscle. Newsflash, you can’t gain 15 lbs of muscle in five months. Maybe he went on a diet of Bacon Milkshakes? Even if he did gain muscle he’ll have to learn to lift the ball more if he was to significantly increase his homer total (he’s HR/F ratio for his short career is under 35 percent, and that’s below the big league average of about 37 percent). Sanchez did see an increase in his walk rate last year, but he’s basically produced identical seasons back-to-back. H’s solid, but there likely isn’t another level left for the 28 year old.

The young and who knows?: Ike Davis, Paul Goldschmidt
Davis is young, has the pedigree, and his ankle finally appears to be healthy. Still, this offseason talk of him hitting .300 with 30 homers is completely the result of him playing in New York. I don’t think he’ll hit either of those numbers this season, but if healthy, the power production should be solid. Goldschmidt has a bright future. The D’backs will give him all the at-bats he proves he can earn, and with that he should also be a solid run producer.

The old and who knows?: Ryan Howard
I’m not a big fan. You can read why in his Player Profile.

The flat out who knows: Justin Morneau, Kendrys Morales
Both guys appear to be progressing, and the Twins and Angels are starting to grow optimistic. At the same time, neither is anything other than a depth addition with the hope that their previous levels of productivity return.
You can get solid production after the elite options are taken at first base, but it doesn’t appear very likely that you’re going to get difference making numbers after the first 10 or so options are off the board at the position.

You can check out how Fleaflicker has the first sackers ranked by clicking on the link.

By Ray Flowers

ADP Talk: Late January, Pitchers

Yesterday I broke down just what Average Draft Position is, and then I took a spin around some of the ADP numbers for hitters that stood out in my mind. Today, I’m going to bookend that piece by breaking down some of the numbers for the men who climb the hill and chuck the pill at batters.

To see my thoughts on the hitters click on: ADP Talk: Late January.

One of the industry leaders in ADP data is Mock Draft Central. In what follows I will break down some of the early ADP numbers for 5×5 mixed leagues (there are 471 qualifying drafts under consideration here that took place from 1/12 to 1/26).

I’ve written it before, but the only difference last year between Justin Verlander (8.7) and Clayton Kershaw (15.3) was three wins. I don’t see why there is such a split between the two in ADP. For that matter, I still have a hard time understanding why people would spend a first round pick on a hurler. Too much variability in performance, too much health risk, and further, starting pitchers only contribute in four of the five categories (no saves). Give me a hitter at the top of the draft every time.

The Phillies currently have three of the top-8 guys according to ADP: Roy Halladay (14.8), Cliff Lee (20.3) and Cole Hamels (31.6).

Zack Greinke at 51.1 is solid – he pitched much better last year than some of his numbers show. Still, it’s surprising to me that he is being taken after teammate Yovani Gallardo (50.9). I also find it slightly odd that James Shields, who outperformed both those Brewers’ arms last season, can he had way down at 66.8.

The top-15 is the land of lefties. Besides Kershaw, Lee and Hamels we also have CC Sabathia (30.9), David Price (39) and Jon Lester (51.1).

Stephen Strasburg will likely pitch no more than 160 or so innings this season as he works his way back from Tommy John surgery. Still, he’s going off the board inside the top-20 amongst starters with an ADP of 61.9. Matt Moore, who many view as the left-handed version of Strasburg, can be had much later down at 102.4. Strasburg’s teammate, Jordan Zimmerman, came back from Tommy John surgery last year and barely eclipsed 160-innings as the Nats were very careful with him. This year he figures to be turned loose but he’s still lasting until 120.2. Adam Wainwright, another Tommy John survivor, is  going off the board at 103. I don’t know about you, but I’m thinking 200-innings from Zimmerman is  going to do me more good than 170 innings from Wainwright.

Jeremy Hellickson is going off the board at 126.8 slightly behind this years exciting newcomer Yu Darvish (126.6).

Why would anyone roster Johnny Cueto (114.2) over Jamie Garcia (178.7)? Garcia won four more games last year and struck out 52 more batters. I know that Cueto had a 2.31 ERA vs. the 3.56 mark of Garcia, but a look at xFIP shows those that those marks should have been much closer – Cueto 3.90, Garcia 3.31. Wait, Garcia was actually better in 2011? See what I’m saying about the ADP being backwards?

Ubaldo Jimenez (154.2) and Max Scherzer (154.2) are two huge arms that can be had outside the top-150 selections in drafts. Speaking of huge arms, give me some Brandon Morrow (185) who is going off the board after soft tossers like Doug Fister (176.6) and Trevor Cahill (177.9). That’s just nuts to me.

Jordan Walden (159.5) had a nice season for the Angels with 32 saves, but did you realize he blew 10 chances? Also, his WHIP was 1.24, which is solid, but it certainly doesn’t point to an elite performance. As for Rafael Betancourt (202.6), he’s failed in the 9th before, but he was nails in the second half last year leading to the Rockies moving Huston Street to give the 9th to him outright this year. I wrote about Bentancourt back in March of last year in this Player Profile. As I wrote there, he has done something that no other pitcher – EVER – has been able to accomplish. He is the only pitcher to post a 9.50 K/9 and 4.35 K/BB rate in more than 500 career innings in the history of the game. Given me that guy.

Javy Guerra (230.1) converted 21 of 23 save chances last year. Still, nearly everyone is banking on the massive arm of Kenley Jansen (183.6) being the man for the Dodgers this year.

Francisco Rodriguez (222.2) is going to set up John Axford (91.3) in Milwaukee, an everyone knows it. K-Rod has nice skills, and has been good for a long time, but I still find it odd that in standard 5×5 leagues that he is being taken ahead of guys like Kyle Farnsworth (222.6), Frank Francisco (232.2), Jim Johnson (233.8) and Matt Capps (234) – all guys that appear likely to open the year as their teams closer. Speaking of late grabs, it’s not a certainty, but Brandon Lyon could be the closer for the Astros (health permitting). His ADP is currently 279.2.

By Ray Flowers

ADP Talk: Late January

 Average Draft Position, or ADP, is a tool that everyone in the fantasy game is using these days. For those of you who don’t know what ADP is, here you go:

ADP takes into account a whole bunch of drafts. You add them all up and come up with the average draft position of a player. As an example. Let’s say that in four drafts Matt Cain is taken 39th, 79th, 51st and 67th. You add up the four draft slots, which equal 236, divide by the number of drafts (in this case four), and come up with an ADP of 59 for Cain. Simply enough right?

One of the industry leaders in ADP data is Mock Draft Central. In what follows I will break down some of the early ADP numbers for 5×5 mixed leagues (there are 471 qualifying drafts under consideration here that took place from 1/12 to 1/26).

Today, I’ll talk hitters. Tomorrow, pitchers.

Joe Mauer (82.4 ADP) seems like quite the bargain if Buster Posey is coming in at #60 don’t you think? Both guys are coming back off injury plagued seasons, but last time I looked it was Posey who suffered the catastrophic injury, right?

Three of my favorites at the catcher’s position: Ryan Doumit (238.2), Chris Iannetta (239.1) and Carlos Ruiz (241.9). I’d take all three of those over Wilson Ramos (210.3).

Albert Pujols (2.4) is ahead of Miguel Cabrera (3.1). With word that Cabrera will play third base this year for the Tigers after the addition of Prince Fielder (14.9), there has been a groundswell of support for Cabrera to go #1 overall, so he’ll likely pass Pujols soon.

Mark Trumbo is #11 at first base right now. That’s gonna have to change. Trumbo doesn’t have a lock on a daily spot in the Angels lineup, and he’s coming back of a lower-body injury. I’d be hard pressed to have him in my top-20 at first right now.

Three second baseman are going in the top-25: Robinson Cano (9.9), Dustin Pedroia (19) and Ian Kinsler (24.7). The next time a second sacker is being called out is at 54.1 – Dan Uggla.

Ben Zobrist (83.2) is being taken behind Rickie Weeks (78.9). Really? Why? The last three years Zobrist has produced an average 5×5 line of .267-19-86-89-20. Weeks is well behind at .269-19-52-72-7. That’s not even close. Plus, Zobrist qualifies in the outfield as well.

Alex Rodriguez has an ADP of 60.6, rounds ahead of Mark Reynolds (119). I know it’s Arod, but does his production the last three years warrant the ADP difference here? He has a sizable average advantage – .277 to .228 – but that’s really it. Arod has hit 30 or less homers each of the past three years. Reynolds has had at least 32 HR each of the last three years. Given the health issues of Arod, he’s also averaged 96 RBI, 73 runs and eight steals, behind the average numbers of Reynolds (91 RBI, 87 runs, 12 steals). I’m just saying.

Looking at ADP, I can say without question that there is no one outside the top-11 right now that I would want starting for me at the hot corner in a 12-team league. Here are guys in the 12-16 range, any of them excite you? Ryan Roberts (196.5), Mike Moustakas (209.3), Lonnie Chisenhall (216.4), Chipper Jones (219.4) and Chase Headley (224.2). OK maybe Headley interests me, but you know I have a crush on him (see his Player Profile).

I’ve made the argument elsewhere, so I’ll say it again here. I know that Elvis Andrus (44.7) is a much safer bet than Dee Gordon (149.3), but I certainly wouldn’t mind waiting on my shortstop for 100 picks to select the Dodgers’ youngster.

Some early values at shortstop: Yunel Escobar (215), Ian Desmond (236.4), Alcides Escobar (240.1).

There are two guys in the top-10 that call the outfield home that I would be surprised if they returned first round value: Jose Bautista (4.2) and Jacoby Ellsbury (8.6).

You take Ellsbury at 8.6 and give me Andrew McCutchen at 26.3. Heck, I’ll take the value play of B.J. Upton at 67.3 if I’m looking for return on investment.

Michael Bourn (58.1) gets no respect. He’s the elite stolen base threat in the game, and because of his wheels he’s been a top-50 overall performer the past three years. Still, his ADP is outside the top-50 and he is being taken behind guys like Jay Bruce (40.4) and Desmond Jennings (55.9). That’s a mistake in my book. Speaking of Bruce, I know he is young and people love to think that he has another level to take his game, but why in the world is he being drafted ahead of guys like Shin-Soo Choo (65.3), B.J. Upton, Adam Jones (74.6) and Shane Victorino (74.8)? Hell, Lance Berkman (92.4) was better than Bruce last year and he also qualifies at first base.

Bruce: .256-32-97-84-8
Lance: .301-31-94-90-2

If all this ADP talk has you excited next week is going to be huge for you. I’ll release my 2012 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Guide in the coming days. That’s when the real fun gets going.

By Ray Flowers

Part III: Vegas, and the FSTA Draft

My three part series on Las Vegas wraps up today. In PART I thanks was given to many of the people in the industry an I explained some of the exploits that I was a part of over the weekend in Sin City. In PART II I took a look at the team I drafted for the FSTA Experts League that was covered live on air by SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Today I’ll finalize the week in Vegas by giving some thoughts on how the FSTA Draft played out.

For the full results click on FSTA 2012 Experts Draft.

Anthony Perri of Fantistics set the room on fire taking Troy Tulowitzki with the first overall pick. He’s a big believer in position scarcity and put his money where his mouth is. Tim Heaney of KFFL then took Albert Pujols second leaving my #1 guy, Matt Kemp, for Steve Gardner/Howard Kaman of USA Today to grab third overall.

I’d much rather have Prince Fielder at #13 than Adrian Gonzalez at #6.

The 21st overall selection was Mike Stanton. My question is this – should he be taken that high? If he hits .270 with 45 homers and 110 RBI that’s great, but unless he steals 15 bases I don’t think he returns this value, not with his batting average woes. Is he really any different than Adam Dunn in his heyday?

The first pitcher taken was Clayton Kershaw at #23. I don’t have a problem with him going off the board as the top pitcher, but you know me, I’m not a fan of taking a hurler this early.

The third round turned out to be the round of risk. Starlin Castro was taken and he’s dealing with that off the field issue with the ladies. Carl Crawford was taken there as well, and we learned about 13 hours after the draft was completed that Crawford had wrist surgery and that leaves him somewhat doubtful to be good to go on opening day. Another casualty of having a draft this early were Glenn Colton and Rick Wolf who took Victor Martinez in the third. Sixteen hours later we found out that he had a torn ACL that will likely end his season.

Per usual, the experts waited to draft starting pitching. Don’t plan on being able to take Felix Hernandez in the 5th round like Chris Liss of Rotowire did in your draft. CC Sabathia and Cole Hamels also went in the 5th round.

Craig Kimbrel was the first closer off the board. He was taken in the 8th round.

I like Vernon Wells as much as the next guy and can see a comeback this season, but taking him in the 9th round ahead of guys like Chris Young or Billy Butler, who were also taken in the 10th, I’m not a fan of that.

Ron Shandler, who knows this game as well as anyone, has a faith in Cory Leubke taking him ahead of guys like Shaun Marcum, Justin Masterson, Tim Hudson, Hiroki Kuroda etc.

I’m a fan of R.A. Dickey in the 29th round as long as he doesn’t kill himself climbing mountains this offseason.

The best pick of the draft or the worst? The answer to that question is likely to be Javier Vazquez who was taken in round 28 by Fantasy Sharks. If he retires it was a wasted pick, but if he somehow ends up on the hill this season this could be a difference making selection.

How the mighty have fallen. Francisco Liriano was taken in the 26th round. He’s well worth the risk at that point (he was my target for that round). Another perpetually injured an underachieving lefty is Erik Bedard. He was taken in the 22nd.

Justin Smoak in the 12th round? What does Jeff Mans of Fantasy Alarm know that we don’t? I don’t think anyone on his team is old enough to have a five o’clock shadow.

Everyone had a laptop out during the draft but myself and Charlie Wiegert if I’m not mistaken. Old school.

Todd Helton is a shell of his former self, but as a 27th round selection I’ve got no complaint at all.

Jason Bay in the 23rd round sounds absurdly low doesn’t it? He’s gotta be able to outperform that. His teammate, Daniel Murphy, went in the same round. I think that was an excellent selection.

Look at the team from Mastersball. It shows you what you can accomplish when you you take stable players early even if the names don’t jump off the page at you. You end up with a pretty solid squad.

Buster Posey went in the middle of the 6th round. If healthy he will surpass that cost. If he has any setbacks physically that’s gonna be a pick that Liss will be able to look at as one of the reasons his team struggled.

Adam Wainwright in the 8th round? If healthy we’ve seen what he can do, but coming back from Tommy John surgery you can’t be thinking he’s gonna throw 200-innings this year. I’d rather have 9th round guys like Gio Gonzalez, Matt Garza and Madison Bumgarner. Hell, I’d rather have my first four arms.

Keeping the dream alive. Justin Morneau was taken in the 14th while Kendrys Morales went in round 19.

By Ray Flowers