Relievers: Wild Wild West

We’re less than a week into the fantasy baseball season, and already people are running to the waiver-wire to address the need to fill the saves category in the fantasy game (is this a great time to bring up why we should include Solds as the fifth fantasy category in place of saves? Solds is saves+holds, and it would give middle relievers as much of a chance to be productive as a closer, so instead of worry about who to roster cause you need a closer, you could simply add the best reliever and be done with it). I’m doing to address the hottest situations of the last few days – Nationals, Rays and Red Sox – right after I break down some thoughts on how everyone should be looking at these situations.

I know that everyone didn’t purchase the 2012 Baseball Guys Draft Guide, if you did you’re likely not in the predicament that some people now find themselves in, but here are a few salient bits of information that I suggested people keep in mind when putting together a team.

When choosing a reliever, target arms that:

Have a K/9 rate of 7.50 or better.
Have a BB/9 rate under 3.00
Have a K/BB rate of at least 2.50
It would also be great if they have a GB/FB ratio of 1.50 or better.

* The article PITCHING TARGETS in the Draft Guide breaks these numbers down in much greater detail giving lists of pitchers that qualify.

This also brings up the point that I always preach:

Target skills, not roles.

I want the best pitchers on my team. I have no idea how/when/why a manger might change what he will do in the 9th inning. In simple terms – I don’t want a guy on my team merely cause he is the closer. I want a guy on my team who has the skills to be successful. At some point you need saves, and if you have to roster a guy with poor ratios to get them then so be it, but there is little reason to desperately try and grab “closers” with poor skills off the waiver-wire in the first week of the season. Remember that. It’s a long year, 162 games worth, and just cause a guy is set to close right now doesn’t mean he will be closing in August.

NATIONALS
Closer: Drew Storen (likely out until late April)
Replacements: Brad Lidge, Henry Rodriguez

This is a bad situation to jump into. It was announced today that Lidge and Rodriguez will alternate working the ninth inning game after game. If you’re in a weekly league, it’s almost impossible to use either guy given that fact. Even in a roto league, be very careful here. If Storen is back in three weeks as expected, how much are you willing to pay for 2-3 saves if you add either backup option?

RAYS
Closer: Kyle Farnsworth (elbow strain. No structural damage)
Replacement: Joel Peralta, Fernando Rodney, J.P. Howell, Jake McGee

Farnsworth could miss two weeks or two months, we don’t really know, though expectations are that he won’t be out long-term. Unfortunately, it looks like the Rays will go with a closer by committee situation. So what do you do here? Rodney is a disaster and his skill set doesn’t come close to matching my “rules” from above. Howell does have a strong skill set but he walks too many batters (4.19 per nine for his career), is left handed and he threw just 30.2 innings last season. That leaves Peralta as the best choice, not just by default either, but also because of his skills. The last two seasons for Peralta have led to some impressive numbers: 8.49 K/9, 2.08 BB/9 an a 4.07 K/BB. The only thing he doesn’t do is induce grounders (his GB/FB ratio for his career is atrocious at 0.66).

RED SOX
Closer: Andrew Bailey (thumb surgery, out 3-4 months)
Replacement: Alfredo Aceves, Mark Melancon

This is the situation that has me most surprised. Bailey goes down, he’s out at least the first half of the 2012 season, and the Sox name Aceves the closer. What ensues is a stampede to the waiver-wire to add Aceves as everyone suddenly seems to think he’s an elite closer. I’m not kidding. EVERYWHERE I look people are pushing, shoving, lying and stealing in order to add Aceves. A brief example of that is my Twitter Poll that I ran for two hours today. Of the four options people were given to add to their staff, Aceves was chosen 64 percent of the time. Why? I suggest it’s merely because he is a Red Sox (over at Fleaflicker it doesn’t seem that the craziness has taken full hold). Let’s break Aceves down.

His career K/9 mark is 6.26, well below the 7.50 mark I like to target.
His BB/9 mark is 2.70 for his career, below the 3.00 mark I like to target.
His K/BB ratio is 2.32, below the 2.50 mark I like to target.
His GB/FB ratio is 0.88, below the 1.50 mark I like to target.

Furthermore, even if you don’t like my targets, consider this.
His career K/9 mark is below the big league average.
His career K/BB ratio is one tenth better the big league average.
His GB/FB is well below the big league average.

To summarize, Aceves is a pitcher with average big league skills. Period. Just take a look at his xFIP. For his career that mark is 4.54, more than a run an a half above his 2.93 raw ERA. Simply put he’s the anti-Ricky Nolasco. Aceves is someone who has had success that he hasn’t completely deserved. Moreover, and people seem to be looking right past this, he has no experience in the ninth inning with four career saves. I’ve said it, but let me write it for you all one more time; Mark Melancon is a more highly skilled pitcher. His K-rate is better, he generates a significantly higher ground ball rate (his 2.64 GB/FB ratio last season is better than what you get when you combined Aceves’ marks the past two years – 2.52), and Melancon is the one who has experience working the 9th inning (20 saves last year for the Astros). Please heed my warning an avoid going all in on Aceves. If you do, the odds say that you will likely regret it.

By Ray Flowers

2012 Opening Day

Finally.

I know that the games officially started last week with the epic battles staged by the Mariners and Athletics in Japan, but I’m calling today the official start of the major league season when the Cardinals take on the Marlins.

With the attrition rate of closers at this point of the preseason, will any hurler reach 40 saves this season? Hell, will any reach 30? Of course they will, but the tumultuous start for many a team in the bullpen, and remember we’ve only had a couple of major league games played to this point, is yet another indication of why you shouldn’t reach on closers on draft day. One other note in case you missed it – Alfredo Aceves will get the first shot to close for the Red Sox. No idea though if he will lead this team in saves though he is a decently skilled hurler who could thrive in the role, you never know (I’m still a fan of Mark Melancon who I think possesses better skills). Heck, I can’t stop. Here’s another note on bullpens. Looks like the White Sox still aren’t certain who they will call on in the 9th inning, but support is growing for Hector Santiago being that guy. Why? Beats me. Perhaps it’s because he has thrown all of 5.1 innings above Double-A in his life. For my thoughts on their bullpen situation see Lunacy in Chicago?

Michael Pineda says that his shoulder is feeling better. Whoppie. He’s still going to start the year on the DL, and he’s still likely to miss all of April – and that is if he doesn’t have another setback. Good luck with that.

It wouldn’t be an opening day without Grady Sizemore on the DL. He was placed on the 60 DL since he has no shot at being back on the field in April after undergoing a micro discectomy procedure on his back on March 1st. Boy that sounds bad doesn’t it?

Did the Indians overpay for Asdrubal Cabrera when they gave him an additional two years for a total of $16.5 million? He won’t repeat his 25 homer outing of last season and he hit .273 which was below his career average of .281. For further thoughts on why the Indians may have slightly overpaid see Cabrera’s Player Profile.

I don’t care if Katy Perry has blue hair. I still love her.

As of this writing the Giants still haven’t officially told Brandon Belt that he has made the club. It does appear though that he will open the year with the club, and that he could play first base with Aubrey Huff moving to the outfield.  “He’s been getting most of the playing time there,’’ manager Bruce Bochy said. “We’ve said we’d put the bats out there that are swinging well.” Belt has hit .389 in spring games while Huff has also produced hitting .306.

Anyone else get the feeling that Nelson Cruz isn’t going to make it through the year unscathed, or even close to it? He’s already dealt with a hand issue that kept him out of action, and now he’s being slowed by an elbow issue after taking a pitch of his left one. X-rays confirm that there is no break, and he is still expected to be ready for opening day. Is it possible that he’s getting all his injuries knocked out before the season starts? Doubtful.

Looks like Ross Detwiler will open the year as the Nationals fifth starter as the club has decided to send John Lannan to the minors in a surprising move. “I look at it this way, Detwiler earned the job,” general manager Mike Rizzo said. “He deserved the job. It was a prudent baseball move for the current Nationals and the future Nationals.” As exciting as the news is for Detwiler and his NL-only prospects, don’t forget that Chien-Ming Wang isn’t expected to miss much more than four weeks and at that time Detwiler will likely end up returning to the bullpen. If you’re an owner of Lannan in a mixed league, it’s time to move on.

All the prep work, all the late nights of telling your significant other that you didn’t have time for them because you had to break down middle infielder’s BABIP are over. Now it’s time for all your hard work the entire offseason to start to payoff. Enjoy it for a day or two. After that, get back at it because the baseball season is perfect for those of you out there who are willing to work at the daily grind. So sit back, relax, and enjoy the 2012 season.

By Ray Flowers

Freaky Friday

It’s Friday and half of you have probably already mentally checked out of work as you’re salivating over the thought of the 2012 fantasy baseball season getting started. How can BBGuys help you to dominating your fantasy league in the coming season? By this point you know I’ve done my best to prep you for your baseball draft with the 2012 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide. I’ve also spent the past couple of months doing in depth player profiles on a whole heaping group of players that might be players you are concerned/interested in over in the Player Profiles category. I’ve also reviewed a handful of the drafts that I have done the past couple of months, to give you an understanding of how drafts were unfolding, in the Fantasy University section.

What can you expect now that the season is about ready to get underway? More of the same excellence that you’ve come to expect (I’m so modest). Oh the drafts will obviously disappear, but I’ll still plow through the morass of information out there an do my best to distill it down to some usable information for you all. Please, an I fight this all the time, tell a friend. I know people want to keep me as their “secret weapon” holding me more closely to their vest than a sex video with their ex-whatever, but I ask that you loosen the reigns a bit. As you are well aware the only charge you will ever incur at BBGuys is for a draft guide. That’s it. The articles, day after day, are free. My advice, both in the Comments section of the website an at the BaseballGuys Twitter account are also free (Twitter is the best place to ask me a question by the way). All I ask in exchange is that you tell a friend. So be a bro and share will ya?

Before I get to some actual content today, I have to tell you why I love America. Did you know that toady is National Cleavage Day? No, I’m not making it up (I didn’t get the information from the local locker room, it’s actually a legit day of celebration). I constantly bemoan the fact that we have all these invented holidays seemingly every day of the calendar, but I will stand up and applaud whomever came up with today’s celebration. So ends the female worship – for this post at least.

Mat Latos (calf) is expected to make his scheduled start on Sunday, that is unless he comes down with some kind of setback during his bullpen session on Friday. He remains a solid option to count on even early in the season.

As expected, Mike Trout was sent to the minors today. As a young fella, he needs to play every day, something that just wasn’t going to happen with the Angels as they have a full outfield of Vernon Wells, Peter Bourjos and Torii Hunter. The news that Bobby Abreu could potentially be on his way to the Indians last night – a deal that has reportedly fallen apart – caused some to be hopeful that Trout would open the year with the big league club. It was never going to happen. Kendrys Morales continues to look great in camp, and with that the hope is that he will be able to DH almost every single game. Given that fact, there just isn’t a spot for Trout right now. His time is coming, and he’s going to be great, but as I wrote months ago, he’s a risk in re-draft leagues this year (listen to some audio from the Arizona Fall League when I was able to interview him).

The Braves signed Livan Hernandez mere hours after the Astros released him. Why did they bother adding the aging, innings eater? Beats me. I mean they get a guy who they can count on to take the ball every five games. He has thrown 175 or more innings each years since 1998, and he’s won at least 10 games every year but one since 2000, but come on now. He’s also posted an ERA of 4.47 or higher in five of the past six years, and his WHIP has been under 1.40 in just once in the last seven seasons. The Braves must really, an I mean really, be disappointed with the work they’ve received from Julio Teheran and Randall Delgado this spring. It looks like Livan will work out of the pen, but whichever guy wins the 5th spot clearly will not have a long leash.

By Ray Flowers

How Did I Do?

As human beings we all look for affirmation. Even those of us that don’t really care can’t help but think to ourselves at times ‘should I wear these pants?’ or ‘I wonder if he really likes me or not?’ It’s human nature. However, it’s gotten totally out of control in the fantasy game. Here is what I mean.

I get, an I’m not exaggerating, at least 100 emails/calls/comments/tweets a day that all start out the same way. “I had my draft last night and I was wondering if you could tell me how I did?” There are so many problems with this line of thought that I felt the need to let it all out (I’m about ready to be my cantankerous best, as they say on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio ‘Ray is about ready to turn heel,’ so you might want to have a belt of booze before you continue reading).

(1) Asking me how you did AFTER your draft is pointless. It’s too late. The time to worry about your team is BEFORE you draft. Once the die has been cast on your team there’s only so much you can do to change it. Inevitably I get this question about ‘how did I do?’ an I send a reply. What then happens is a series of emails, rarely is it just one mind you, in which a handful of potential moves are brought up. Not to be rude, but I just don’t have the time to answer 125 emails a day. The easiest way to avoid this situation is to pick up a copy of my Baseball Guys 2012 Draft Guide (you can also follow me on Twitter where I answer questions all day and night). There are over 600 players ranked in that Guide so you know just how I think players should be evaluated. This leads to…

(2) Why are you asking me if you should drop Rafael Furcal to pick up Yunel Escobar? Clearly you haven’t picked up a copy of the Baseball Guys Draft Guide where Escobar is ranked 12 spots ahead of Furcal. I’d say a good 50 percent of the questions I get from people after drafts would be answered if they just employed the strategies and rankings that can be found in the Guide. There’s a reason I spent all the time needed to craft the 55 page PDF document, and why I continue to update it on a daily basis. If you’re going to use me a source for fantasy sports knowledge, how about trusting my rankings of players?

(3) Why are you looking to trade players three hours after your draft was completed? We’ve all been in leagues with people who have a disease that pushes them to constantly monkey around with their lineups either through trades, waiver-wire additions or by mixing and matching their lineup on a daily basis. Games haven’t even started yet and you’re already going to start messing around with your lineup? Really? That seems pretty harsh to me. Remember – most of the time what we do in fantasy sports is reactionary. You bench Yunel Escobar only after you notice he has hit .188 for the past 10 games. The problem with that is that he’ll then go out and produce seven hits in his next three games. Noticing this “hot trend,” you then activate him yet again. However, he then goes 1-for-13. Given this example you’ve basically had Escobar in your lineup hitting .145. If you had never messed around with the lineup that average would have been .250. Exercise patience, especially when games haven’t even been played yet.

(4) For goodness sakes people, why are we turning fantasy baseball into fantasy football? One of the most beautiful aspects of fantasy baseball is that 5×5 scoring accounts for about 90 percent of leagues. Moving to more involved leagues, 6×6 or 7×7 or even larger is fine with me, but keep the format the same. By that I mean starting lineups should include:

14 hitters: C,C,1B,2B,3B,SS,MI,CI,OF,OF,OF,OF,OF,UT
9 pitcher: Any mix of starters and relievers

You can jimmy-jack around with the scoring categories if you’d like, but keep the starting lineup standard. Don’t do a league with only five pitchers, or one with one catcher, or one that starts only three outfielders. Just don’t.

By the way, auctions should be $260. Not $280, not $300, but $260.

(5) Speaking of roster sizes, let me address league sizes. I realize that 10-team leagues are “standard” for some of the biggest purveyors of fantasy sports, but I’m here to tell you that’s a total joke. I do leagues where there are 12 teams in an AL-only league and 13 teams for NL-only setups. If you’re doing a 10-team mixed league the player pool penetration is so shallow it’s nearly a waste of time. For goodness sakes, if you’re going to do a 10-team league you had better at least have 14 hitters and nine pitchers in your starting lineup. If you don’t, please don’t waste my time asking me to analyze your team. If your club starts 10 hitters and seven pitchers doesn’t look like an All-Star squad in a 10-team league you need to quit playing fantasy baseball.

(6) If you are going to send me a question to rank your team, realizing you are taking your life in your own hands after the above rambling posting, please at least tell me how many teams are in your league and how many players are in your starting lineup. If you start eight hitters or 14 kind of makes a big difference.

Now that I’ve got that off my chest, you can return to your normally scheduled program.

If you’re looking to do a fantasy league this year, why not give Fleaflicker a try?

By Ray Flowers

Tout Wars & The Big Apple

New York. The Big Apple. The center of the universe. Instead of orbiting around New York City from my home in California, I’m off to the middle of it all this weekend. Am I on a mystic quest to save a beautiful maiden or to fight the evil forces that are oppressing humanity? Of course not. I’m going to participate in one of the two biggest fantasy baseball leagues in the world – Tout Wars (the other being LABR which I was also fortunate enough to be invited to). Some thoughts on the upcoming weekend.

Tout Wars has three events: NL-only, AL-only and Mixed. I’ve been invited to participate in the 15 team mixed league (for a list of the of participants click on Tout Wars Mixed League). The 15 team auction is pretty “standard”: 5×5 scoring, 14 hitters, nine pitchers, $260 to fill out the starting lineup. One difference is that the games played limit isn’t the normal 20, it’s been dropped to 15 games this season. That opens up a few guys of note to new positional acceptance: Aubrey Huff (16 games in the outfield), Howie Kendrick (17 games at first base) and Michael Cuddyer (17 games at second base). Unfortunately, Michael Young appeared in just 14 games at second base last season or he’d be able to add that to his first and third base eligibility. This league also says that players positional eligibility, besides being lowered to the 15 game threshold from last season, is only five appearances at a position in season in ordered to be deemed eligible. That means a guy like Miguel Cabrera or Hanley Ramirez will likely be eligible to play third base by the second week of the season. As I always say, you have to know your league rules top take the best advantage of your situation.

Only in New York can you get a hotel room for $220 a night and people are saying that it was a huge bargain. Maybe I’ll be able to get beer and sandwich for lunch for $25. A guy can dream.

I keep hearing people say that third base is really thin. I can’t say I agree. Did you catch my piece titled Third Base, A Wasteland?

After doing a 13 team NL-only league in LABR, doing a 15 team mixed league sounds like a walk in the park. I still like the balanced approach versus Stars and Scrubs, but I’ll be a bit more aggressive this time around than I was in LABR.

Time is starting to run short, the season is quickly approaching, but the BaseballGuys’ Draft Guide could still help you out If you’re interested in bringing home a championship in 2012.

Trying to plan my arrival from the airport to the hotel, and then the hotel to the event. I think I have a better chance of that plan running off without a hitch than I do of drafting the best team in the history of fantasy baseball, but just barely.

Help me out here. I’m looking at ADP numbers over at MockDraftCentral an I just can’t understand why in the world, in a non-keeper league, that Mike Trout is being taken ahead of guys like Brennan Boesch, Delmon Young and Dexter Fowler. Maybe I missed the memo, but what’s going on here? Trout has been slowed all spring by the flu – reports say he lost 10 lbs to the malady – and the expectation is that he will open the year at Triple-A because of the glut of players the Angels have on their big league roster. Given the current setup, an of course it’s subject to change through a trade or injury, it looks like Trout will be lucky to get 450 at-bats this season with the Angels. I know the kid is one of the five best prospects in baseball and his future is luminous, but starting the year in the minors after posting a .220/.281/.390 line in 123 at-bats as a rookie with the big league club is enough to cause him to be taken ahead of Boesch, Young and Fowler? I must be out of my mind, but that makes no sense to me at all.

Which Ray’s Pizza should I visit to get a slice? Be forewarned, I’m a big fan of Chicago style deep dish. I’m off to New York. I’ll let you know how it went next week. Wish me luck.

By Ray Flowers

Did You Know?

Sometimes I like to randomly check in with the baseball cosmos. Today is one of those days. There’s no rhythm or reason to what follows – there’s just a bunch of interest facts strewn about all over the page relating to performances from 2011.

Alex Avila led American League batters, under the age of 26, with an OPS of .895 in 2011 (minimum 502 at-bats). The only other AL bat to reach those requirements who also posted an OPS of .850 was Evan Longoria who finished at exactly .850.

Lance Berkman led the NL last season with 22 homers on the road, one more than his former teammates Albert Pujols.

There were only three outfielders in baseball who hit 10 homers, 10 triples and stole 20 bases. Curtis Granderson was likely and easy call for you, though the other two might be a wee bit tougher. Well, maybe you got Austin Jackson of the Tigers as the second guy, but I’d be willing to bet that the third player’s name is one that you will have to search your memory banks for a long while to find. This youngster had 12 homers, 11 triple and 22 steals. He plays in the American League. Some regard him as the best defensive center fielder in the game. He is Peter Bourjos.

Only four men in baseball have hit .300 with 20 or more homers each of the past three years. Albert Pujols… doesn’t make the list. He hit just .299 last season. The list of four men: Ryan Braun, Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto and… Robinson Cano.

Rajai Davis stole third base 17 times last year, the most in the AL. That’s the same total as Alex Gordon posted last year in 151 games.

I have a crush on Katherine McPhee of Smash. If you click on that link can can’t understand why, I can’t help you.

Sam Fuld stole 20 bases last year, one more than Shane Victorino, Johnny Damon, Ben Zobrist and Jayson Werth. While each of those four batters hit at least 16 homers, Fuld went deep just three times for the Rays.

I love HDTV. It drives home the point that so many “famous” people really aren’t as good looking as you think they are. Makes you feel a little bit better when you look in the mirror.

Yadier Molina hit a career best .305 last season despite the fact that he swung at 40.7 percent of first pitches, the highest mark in the National League. He was the polar opposite of Jamey Carroll who swing at only 6.9 percent of first pitches, the fewest in the NL.

Anibal Sanchez had 202 strikeouts last year. Come on, admit it. You had no idea did you? Were you away that he had more punchouts than Zack Greinke (201), Ian Kennedy (198), Jered Weaver (198), Gio Gonzalez (197) and Cole Hamels (194)?

Only three hurlers in baseball have at least 35 saves each of the past two seasons. Two are rather obvious, though neither is named Mariano Rivera or Jonathan Papelbon. The two arms that have 35 or more saves in each of the last two years that are obvious both pitched in the NL West, though one of them will now pitch for the Marlins: Heath Bell and Brian Wilson. The third man is no longer even a closer, he’s now a setup man in Toronto – Francisco Cordero. If we drop the qualification down to 30 saves each of the last two years we only get eight names, a number that is certainly a lot lower than you were likely thinking it would be (yet another reason to avoid overpaying for closers on draft day perhaps?). There just aren’t that many consistent, save arms in the game when you look at multi-year trend. Think of this. Of the eight 30-save guys the last two years, I already mentioned that Cordero is no longer a closer. Another arm on the list, Leo Nunez (aka Juan Carlos Oviedo), also isn’t going to be closing this season. A third name, Neftali Feliz, is going to start. That means a list of 30 save guys for three years, 2000-12, will have, at most, five names on it. Remember that the last time you go diving for closers early in your draft.

By Ray Flowers

Contracts, Expectations and Bigfoot

Yadier Molina is a rich man. Buster Posey is trying to prove he is healthy. Grady Sizemore is on the sidelines yet again. A.J. Burnett needs to learn how to bunt. All this and more in today’s article at BaseballGuys.com.

For those of you looking to get a draft guide to help you to dominate the competition, I’ve got you covered.

Yadier Molina signed a 5-year, $75 million deal to remain with the Cardinals. I’ll say this, Molina is one of the most well rounded catchers currently pulling on the tools of ignorance. He’s got a rocket for an arm, calls a good game, and he took his offense to new heights last season when he reached career bests in average (.305), homers (14), RBI (65) and runs scored (55). Molina also surpassed his career OPS by .107 points with his .814 number. So clearly the Cards did the right thing in locking him up, right? Well, I don’t know about that. The contract covers Molina during his age 30-34 seasons, not exactly time to put him in an old folks home or anything, but that’s getting up there fore a catcher who is playing 135 times a season. In fact, the deal is the third largest in baseball history for a catcher behind the preposterous 8-year, $184 million that Joe Mauer received and the 7-year, $91 million deal that was lavished on Mike Piazza. Molina is a top-10 option at the catcher’s position in terms of his fantasy value for 2012 in my mind even if he fails to live up to the homer total from last season, but I worry about his ability to be a top-10 option when he turns 34 years old (of course, in the real game, defense matters a heck of a lot and that’s a good part of the reason that the Cardinals lavished Molina with that big money deal). Oh, and for reference sake, Jose Bautista signed a 5 year deal for $65 million this offseason. Molina better stay healthy and continue to be an excellent defender.

Speaking of catchers, Buster Posey will not play in the Giants Cactus League opener on Saturday. The team is taking it easy with Posey who may not actually see game action until the middle of next week. I’m still not convinced though. He still isn’t running the bases yet, and there is no telling just how well his body will handle the grind of catching since he last played a game in late May of last season. Those that are drafting him as a top-5 option at catcher and a top-75 option overall might hit it big if Posey is healthy, but at this point I’m thinking that it might be time to start waiving the cautionary yellow flag with Posey.

I’ve realized I’m a pretty good cook. At the same time, it’s all about following a recipe and having some confidence, so I shouldn’t be patting myself on the back too heavily.

Grady Sizemore will never be the player he once was. He was a 30/30 performer in 2008, and he once scored 134 runs with a .907 OPS (2006). Alas, injuries to his lower half have limited him to just 104 games played the last two years. Now we get news that he is likely to miss 8-12 weeks after needing micro disecectomy surgery on his lower back. At this point, you had better not be counting on Sizemore to help you out at all in a mixed league in 2012, or perhaps ever again unfortunately. Even if I was drafting in an AL-only league, Sizemore shouldn’t be viewed as anything more than a 4^th or 5^th outfield option, an even that might be pushing it since it appears likely that a best case scenario would see him back at full strength on June 1^st. In the meantime, Michael Brantley should step into the starting role in the outfield and at the top of the batting order. If Brantley can get 500 at-bats he could be a significant AL-only option, but there is still a very real possibility that at some point when Sizemore returns Brantley will see his playing time curtailed.

Did you see the most recent “proof” that bigfoot exists? It’s a photo of something that looks awful big and hairy. Photos can be so easily manipulated anymore, but what about footprints? There was a string of tracks, 122 in all, that were recently discovered in Oregon. Why did I bother posting this information? Perhaps it’s because I always wanted to be a cryptozoologist. By the way, here’s a great story about Bigfoot and baseball players.

Poor A.J. Burnett who I wrote about in his Player Profile. Burnett was injured while bunting – who said baseball wasn’t a contact sport – and he will have surgery to repair a fractured orbital bone around his right eye Friday. It sounds like Burnett will miss 8-12 weeks, hardly a confidence inspiring start to his career with the Pirates.

By Ray Flowers

In Blank We Trust?

Should you trust Paul Goldschmidt to produce well enough to be a mixed league starter? Should you trust Josh Johnson to stay healthy? Should you have faith that Jayson Werth will rebound from a down 2011?

D’Backs GM Kevin Towers had this to say about Paul Goldschmidt the young, slugging first baseman who is generating a lot of hype in the fantasy game. “I would be happy if he did what he did last year and nothing more than that. If the power comes, great, but finding a way to get on base, if it is a walk or a base hit, I will take that from him.” Goldschmidt killed it last season blasting 30 homers in just 103 games at Double-A (this a year after he hit 35 homers in 138 games at High-A ball). Obviously, Goldschmidt is a power hitter, so it’s a bit foolish for Towers to have made the statement he did even though I understand he is doing it to keep the expectations in check for the youngster. Paul hit eight homers with 26 RBI in 48 games last season with the Diamondbacks. If he were to keep up that pace in 2012 we’d be looking at a first baseman hitting .250 with 25 homers and 80 RBI. Current ADP numbers show Goldschmidt going off the board 12th at the position, ahead of guys like Gaby Sanchez (17th) and Carlos Pena (18th). Given that all three of those players have produced a bunch of seasons of the ilk that we’re postulating with Goldschmidt as a hypothetical outcome for his 2012 effort, are you as surprised as I am to see him being taking 75 picks ahead of a guy like Carlos Pena?

Kelly Clarkson has a great voice. Always love hearing her belt one out.

Marlins’ manager Ozzie Guillen said that the Fish will monitor the workload of oft injured hurler Josh Johnson. “He will dictate for us what to do,” Guillen said. “What I want him to do is have confidence in us to make sure we know. So he can come to us and say, ‘Listen, I need a day.’ Can I miss a start? I don’t want him to go out there and be a hero…” Guillen then went on to totally contradict himself, hardly a shock, by saying the following. “In my mind, I have this man throwing 200 innings and winning 21 games. That’s in my mind.” Johnson is likely to, at least, be removed early from games in which the Marlins have a lead or are behind, so I have a hard time envisioning that he will make it to 200-innings this season. You don’t have to believe me – just look at his track record. Johnson has pitched 200 innings once in his career and since 2006, his first season as a starter, he has averaged 119 innings a season. To compare, since 2006 Erik Bedard has averaged 112 innings a season. Read that again. The last six years the always injured Bedard is averaging seven less innings a season than Johnson. Are you really still comfortable with depending on Josh Johnson this season?

I was having a debate with a friend the other day. I’m a big fan of plasma televisions since I think they gives a better, more natural color than LCD televisions. Plasma’s also handle motion a bit better and they are better with dark colors (i.e. black levels), so it’s a slam dunk that plasma is better LCD in my mind. That will end your brief foray into geek talk. Wait… maybe all my talk is actually geek talk? Is fantasy baseball really any less geeky? Could it be possible that I’m that guy, the one who can’t relate to people because he is playing with his Han Solo and Chewbacca action figures? Nah, can’t be me.

How bad was Jayson Werth last year? In a season of at least 300 at-bats he posted his worst batting average (.232), OBP (.330) and his second worst SLG mark (.389 – it was .374 back in 2005). As a result Werth, who had posted an OPS of at least .850 for 4-straight years, saw that number dip to .718 last season. Awful. At the same time he still hit 20 homers and and stole 19 bases. Do you know how many outfielders matched those totals last year? The answer is just 11. Moreover, the last four seasons Werth has produced an average of 27 homers and 18 steals. He’s on my list of guys you’ll want to target in 2012.

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By Ray Flowers

K-BAD: Experts Draft, Part II

For the last few years I’ve been fortunate enough to be invited to participate an experts league with the crew from KFFL.com. The league, called K-BAD (KFFL’s Baseball Analysis Draft), pits 12 experts against one another in a 12 team mixed league draft with 28 man rosters. For a breakdown of who is in the league and how everything shakes out, not to mention who I drafted in rounds 1-14 see K-BAD: Experts Draft, Part I.

In what follows I’ll list my thoughts about my selections from pick 15-28. I’ll then give a quick run down of my squad.

Round 15: Dexter Fowler
He gained some muscle this offseason, and he flat out exploded in the second half of the season: .288 with a .880 OPS, 51 runs, 10 steals in 68 games.

Round 16: Wandy Rodriguez
This is a solid skill set hurler who gets no love because he’s on the Astros. As a 5th starter on my team he’s slotted in the right spot.

Round 17: Kurt Suzuki
I wanted to wait another go round for a backstop, I’d prefer to take a closer here, but I just didn’t have much faith in the remaining backstops.

Round 18: Frank Francisco
Great arm will be given an opportunity to close with Mets. Could have gone OF here, but I really needed to get that second closer arm.

Round 19: Brennan Boesch
It was Boesch, Joyce or Vernon Wells for my 5th outfielder. Couldn’t see any of them being around the next time I made a pick.

Round 20: Vernon Wells
Well color me surprised. Wells was indeed available after I considered taking him in the last round. He makes a solid UT option this late.

Round 21: Ryan Doumit
Of all the remaining backstops Doumit is the one I can see going .275-15-70 if he can stay healthy. Per 450 at-bats in his career: .271-15-61-54-2.

Round 22: Scott Baker
I’ve been staring at Baker for two rounds now. If healthy, there’s little reason to think he won’t be a top-50 hurler at worst, so this is good value this late.

Round 23: Rafael Furcal
I wanted to go with another starting pitcher here, but I looked at the remaining options for my backup at short and Furcal appeared to be well ahead of the remaining options.

Round 24: Ricky Nolasco
Once more into the breach… one of these years it’s going to happen. I’m convinced. I feel like Ahab from Moby Dick chasing my White Whale.

Round 25: Daniel Murphy
To get a guy who could hit .300 while qualifying at first, second and third… sign me up. Big fan of a reserve pick who covers so many positions.

Round 26: Chris Davis
It’s like when you walk into a car dealership intending to buy a sedan and walk out with a sports car. The lure of Davis and his power is too strong for me to break.

Round 27: Sergio Romo
(1) I could use solid ratios with a shot at a few saves. (2) With a short bench of only five guys I felt I needed a hurler over another bat.

Round 28: David Robertson
Went with this great bullpen arm instead of starters Homer Bailey, Aaron Harang, A.J. Burnett and Ryan Vogelsong, Obviously there will be plenty of arms left on the waiver-wire.

My Squad.

C: Kurt Suzuki, Ryan Doumit
1B: Miguel Cabrera
2B: Howie Kendrick
3B: Kevin Youkilis
SS: Derek Jeter
MI: Dustin Ackley
CI: Mark Reynolds
OF: Matt Holliday, B.J. Upton, Shane Victorino, Dexter Fowler, Brennan Boesch
UT: Vernon Wells

Pitchers: Felix Hernandez, Ricky Romero, Josh Beckett, Brandon Morrow, Wandy Rodriguez, Scott Baker, Ricky Nolasco, Sergio Santos, Frank Francisco

Bench: Rafael Furcal, Daniel Murphy, Chris Davis, Sergio Romo, David Robertson

I’ve got a lot of flexibility with the club as Cabrera, Kendrick, Reynolds, Davis and Murphy are all going to be multi position guys. I could be a bit light on steals, but I should still finish middle of the pack there. I like the late add of Daniel Murphy to help offset a guy like Reynolds in the batting average category. On the hill, I think I again showed that you can wait on hurlers and still assemble a strong staff. My top-5 arms could all give me 175 Ks, and Baker/Nolasco could both be near elite if healthy and lucky (that obviously has not been the case the past few years though). I might be light on saves but with this draft happening so early in the year, before training camp even started, I didn’t feel the need to reach on bullpen arms when so many situations are still unsettled.

I’ll keep you posted throughout the year on how the club is doing.

Finally, here is my roster, along with all the others from the K-BAD Draft.

By Ray Flowers

Braun’s Suspension Overturned

 This is the official release from Major League Baseball in regards to the 50-game suspension that was given to Ryan Braun which has been overturned – i.e. Braun will not serve a single game of the 50 game suspension that was originally handed down.

Milwaukee Brewers OF and NL MVP Ryan Braun has won his appeal and won’t be suspended. 

MLB issued this statement disagreeing with the decision made by the arbitrator:

MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL STATEMENT

          Major League Baseball Executive Vice President for Labor Relations Rob Manfred issued the following statement today:

          “Major League Baseball considers the obligations of the Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment Program essential to the integrity of our game, our Clubs and all of the players who take the field.  It has always been Major League Baseball’s position that no matter who tests positive, we will exhaust all avenues in pursuit of the appropriate discipline.  We have been true to that position in every instance, because baseball fans deserve nothing less.

“As a part of our drug testing program, the Commissioner’s Office and the Players Association agreed to a neutral third party review for instances that are under dispute.  While we have always respected that process, Major League Baseball vehemently disagrees with the decision rendered today by arbitrator Shyam Das.”

Here is a link to a report about the whole situation at ESPN.

FANTASY TAKE

With the removal of the specter of suspension, Braun leaps up draftboards. After his effort last season, and the last few years for that matter, I don’t see how anyone can look at Braun and not think he deserves to be a top-5 overall option. I believe he’s a top-2 option along with Matt Kemp, and I’m in favor of Braun going first off the board.

By Ray Flowers