Valentine’s Day Special

If you forgot to look at a calendar consider this your public service announcement for the day. It’s Valentine’s Day moron. Go out and get your special someone something special. It doesn’t have to be a diamond ring – though I’m sure those are welcomed – it just has to be something that shows you care. A box of candy (one that doesn’t look like you bought it at the convenient store on the corner would be nice). A stuffed teddy bear like the one above. Hell, if all of that isn’t happening make a card. Nothing says I care like a handmade card. Don’t worry if it looks like it was done by a seven year old. This is one time that it will seem adorable even if you have no artistic talent (for those of you who are interested in the holiday, the History Channel has a nice little section of videos discussing the day).

Before I go and get all soft on you all, and yes I have a special day about to be set in motion (my lady planned an evening for me that is a total surprise. Hopefully I haven’t jinxed it by mentioning it here in this piece), let’s get back to the world of baseball which is the real reason you came to BaseballGuys.com today, not to read my mushy thoughts on the holiday.

Grant Balfour will likely miss 4-6 weeks as he went under the knife on Thursday for a knee issue. The club hopes he will be able to return in time for Opening Day, but that’s obviously an open ended question at this point. Ryan Cook would seem most likely to take over given that he filled the role with aplomb last season in the first half. Some may have forgotten with Cook that he had 14 saves, 21 holds, a 2.09 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 9.82 K/9 mark in 2012. That’s an elite line folks. Some will mention Sean Doolittle as a possible closing option, but the guy literally has less than 75 innings pitched in his career (he’s a converted hitter). He’s got a huge K arm, 11.41 per nine last year, and he walked only 2.09 per nine, but he’s just so inexperienced and really only has one solid pitch at the moment (he threw his fastball 87 percent of the time in ’12).

Trevor Cahill lost 10-15 lbs over the winter. Question. How does Cahill not know how much weight he lost? Did he never weigh himself before (I mean, can he see his toes now or what)? There’s obviously a benefit to getting in better shape. It should take some pressure of Cahill’s legs and give him a bit more oomph at the end of the season. Cahill pushed his K-rate to 7.02 per nine last year, a career best, and more than a batter above his career rate. If he holds on to those gains, and is able to maintain his out of this world 2.69 GB/FB ratio from last season, that ERA (3.78) and WHIP (1.29) could certainly come down.

For those of you looking for some sexy Valentine’s outfits…

Rich Harden threw Wednesday and said that his surgically repaired shoulder felt pretty good. “I’m hoping it’ll feel the same when I start facing hitters. I threw mostly fastballs because I’m trying to get that feel back.” The Twins don’t know exactly yet if Harden would fit best in the bullpen or at the back-end of the rotation, but I would bet that if he’s healthy he’ll be able to get batters out. For his career Harden has struck out 949 batters in 928.1 innings.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

Kyle Lohse is still looking for a team as clubs are still a bit unsure about whether giving him all that cash, and giving up a first round draft pick as compensation is worth it. For more on Lohse see his Player Profile.

Adam Wainwright had a 3.94 ERA and 1.25 WHIP last season, solid numbers indeed but off the pace he set for himself before he had Tommy John surgery. I’m here to tell ya though, he pitched much better than it seemed. Take a look at his xFIP for a quick snapshot of how he performed: 3.32 in 2009, 3.02 in 2010, Tommy John surgery in 2011, 3.23 in 2012. His 8.34 K/9 mark is a five year best, and his 3.54 K/BB ratio was better than his 3.02 career mark. Toss in a career best 1.93 GB/FB ratio (career 1.57), and we have a guy who is primed for a huge season in 2013.

Don’t forget to get your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

The Sad State of Baseball

I hate this entire performance enhancing drugs mess in baseball. This story just won’t die. It seems like on an almost daily basis there is some new revelation about a player, or group of players, who alleged cheated. I’ve resisted writing about the topic for the most part, I feel almost like it’s beneath me to get down into the gutter with all of this mess, but alas, the story just won’t go away. So something I never do here at BaseballGuys.com – I’m actually going to write an editorial with little relevance, at least directly, to the world of fantasy sports.

Some bullet point thoughts on the whole disaster.

1 – If any player cheated shame on them. They’ve brought shame on themselves, their families, their teams and the fans that support them. If a player cheated, and it can be proven, they should be punished. Period.

2 – The key phrase of the previous statement is “proven.” In this society we rush to judgment so quickly. We want the news immediately. We get annoyed if we have to wait in line for three minutes to get out coffee or if a web page takes nine seconds to load. Instant gratification is the key term for today. That being said, we also seem want to accept every story as truth. Take the recent PED accusations coming out of Florida. It seems that we have grown so weary of the entire PED mess, especially on the heels of the recent admission by Lance Armstrong that he did indeed take banned substances after years of violently defending himself against such accusations, that we’re willing to exceptany story at face value. I’m not saying the recent reports from Florida aren’t accurate. I’ve got no way of knowing whether they are or aren’t. But I will tell you that we’ve all been fooled before. Ever heard of the Piltdown Man? How about the singing group Milli Vanilli? And I don’t even know what to say about the whole Manti Te’o situation. The point is that there are plenty of times when the public has accepted a story without knowing the truth. Let’s be careful not to do that again here. Let’s give the process time to unravel the mystery and get to the truth of the matter.

3 – What is the evidence against the players recently implicated? A series of documents from a clinic in Florida. I’m not saying they are fraudulent or fabricated, but has anyone ever written down something that wasn’t true? We’ve all done that. Isn’t Wall Street filled with people who make claims that simply aren’t true (Bernard Madoff famously fooled everyone with a Ponzi scheme in which he apparently defrauded people of nearly $65 billion dollars). Just because a source reports something “officially” doesn’t make it so. Do we believe the evidence form Florida in regards to the list of players that continues to seemingly increase by the hour?

4 – Even if the documents are authentic, what does that prove? That’s the whole problem with this entire situation in major league baseball. We’re talking about things that happened years ago in many cases. There’s no medical proof of any of this. No drug tests. No blood tests. No urine tests. There is no direct proof of any of it. TO BE CLEAR, I’m not saying we should indemnify players of responsibility here, I’m merely pointing out that there is no direct link to players in the majority of these cases except in testimony from shady characters and in documents that may or may not represent reality. And this is the biggest quandary in sports at the moment in relation to the PED mess. We’re trying to prove something that we can’t prove. I have no idea if Ryan Braun took PEDs two years ago. With this being the second time in two years that his name has surfaced in connection to alleged cheating his window for support continues to narrow, but where is the proof that stands up in court? I just don’t see it. Until we have that we can be skeptical of any player linked at all to any of this, including Braun, but are you really ready to turn your back on a player merely because of an accusation that hasn’t been proven.

Have you ever been arrested or detained by the police for something you didn’t do? Have you ever been accused of lying by your boss when you weren’t? Has a significant other ever thought you were messing around with an ex of yours when you weren’t? We’ve all been accused of things that aren’t true.

I’m not going to say that players are innocent. In my heart of hearts I know they aren’t. I know it. But the fact is that so much of what we accept as truth in the sports world of late isn’t provable. It’s the old he said/she said thing with two sides offering totally different reasons for what occurred (Braun’s team says they are in the records of the Miami medical clinic because they were using the clinic as paid consultants when Braun was fighting his positive test prior to last season and that it has nothing to do with him purchasing drugs from the clinic). Will time allow us to resovle this issue? Will we ever get clarity on some of these matters? I fear we won’t for many. Let’s just hope that MLB finds a better way to test players so that we can put an end to the mess that I fear will engulf the game to the point that it will tarnish everything positive that has happened on the field. That would be an utter shame.

* Don’t forget to get your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013. At this point, I’m not downgraded guys like Gio Gonzalez, Jesus Montero, Nelson Cruz and Braun, not until we get more clarity with what is going on.

Is Perception Reality?

A lot of times human beings have a hard time making a decision. Sometimes the decisions we make are well reasoned. Other times our information is faulty, we make rash/uneducated decisions because of it, or we let our hormones out of the box and they cause all kinds of issues (tell me you haven’t been out on a Saturday night at 1 AM and those hormones of yours aren’t telling you to do something that you would never do at 6 PM on a Thursday night. Don’t feel bad. We’ve all been there – some of us more than others). With that as the backdrop let me toss out some information and you can tell me what you would do with it.

PITCHER A: Four seasons of 210 innings and five of 185.
PITCHER B: No season of 180 innings.

PITCHER A: Won at least 13 games on four occasions.
PITCHER B: Never won more than 11 games.

PITCHER A: Career 3.31 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 2.81 K/BB, 1.41 GB/FB
PITCHER B: Career 4.10 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 2.28 K/BB, 0.88 GB/FB

Is there any person out there, given that data, that wouldn’t take PITCHER A? Of course there isn’t. Obviously, based on the data laid out PITCHER A is not only a more skilled hurler, he’s also the hurler with experience so there would be no reason to take PITCHER B. Of course, as you might have surmised from the extended build up, many this year are drafting PITCHER B first.

Why is this occurring? The prevailing thought is that PITCHER A, coming off the worst season of his career and a dreadful campaign, is no longer someone that can be counted on while PITCHER B is the upwardly mobile hurler who only needs health to excel in 2013. Is that perception reality?

PITCHER A is Tim Lincecum. I won’t go into great detail breaking down Lincecum in this piece since I’ve already done that in Is Tim Lincecum Washed Up After Years of Dominance? In that article I broke  down why I believe that far too much is being made out of Tim’s loss of velocity and why just because he had a terrible season in 2012 doesn’t mean his career is over.

As for PITCHER B, that’s Brandon Morrow. I get it. Morrow is a power arm who I personally touted as a breakout star last year. He posted a 2.96 ERA and 1.11 WHIP as he was well on his way to making me look like a genius before injury struck and that ultimately limited him to being on the bump only 21 times. As I noted above, Morrow doesn’t have any big inning seasons under his belt, and while that shouldn’t stop you from targeting him on draft day it’s just a little knock against him that has to be noted. It should also be noted that despite all the success last year that is better than a strikeout an inning arm, he was over 10.15 K/9 in 2010 and 2011, fell to just 7.80 last season. That’s a significant loss (even “terrible” Lincecum was at 9.19). Morrow did further reduce his walk rate, for the first time it was under three batters per nine innings to help offset the loss of Ks, but is that a repeatable number for him? Will Morrow continue to have success keeping the ball in the yard even though his fly ball rate is constantly 5-7 percent above the league average? Does he have any chance of repeating his .252 BABIP from last season which was .039 points below his career norm?

I’m not going to say that drafting Lincecum over Morrow is the right or wrong move (more on that below). I’m merely going to point out that the numbers, and not just the last 12 months but all the numbers, suggest that while everyone out there but me might be favoring Morrow this season that it really shouldn’t be the open and shut case it seems to be for most. Remember, we all do things at times that we regret and usually the best way to avoid those decisions, other than laying off that 6th Midori Sour, is to get as much information as possible to help you to form an accurate picture of what it is that you’re trying to address.

To find out how I ranked Morrow and Lincecum in 2013, and let me tell you it’s about as close as it can be in my book, make sure you get a copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Draft Guide.

By Ray Flowers

Athletics & Astros Deal

The Athletics and the Astros completed a five player deal, and though none of the names really jumps off the page at you, there are two names that will be drafted in nearly all mixed leagues and they also have the ability to be impressive single league contributors. There’s also an arm you might want to pay attention to in the reserve rounds of AL-only leagues. Oh, I’ll also touch on the Mets’ bullpen and my favorite Mexican food.

The A’s and Astros pulled off a five player deal Monday. Here are the details.

Athletics Receive: Jed Lowrie, Fernando Rodriguez
Astros Receive: Chris Carter, Brad Peacock, Max Stassi

Here’s a quick rundown.

Lowrie is the “big” name, for what that is worth. He leaves a good hitter’s park in Houston for a pitcher’s yard in Oakland. He’s also never able to stay healthy. Here are his games played totals: 81, 32, 55, 88 & 97. That’s five years without even 100 games played folks. He’s also got the most boring slash line you will ever see: .250/.326/.417. With a full season of at-bats 20 homers is possible, but as you can tell from this brief little note, I’m not a huge fan. Rodriguez was 2-10 with a 5.37 ERA last year in the minors, but at least he struck out 78 batters in 70.1 innings. ”He’s got a real big arm,” A’s GM’ Billy Beane said. ”His record, his ERA are probably a little bit misleading.”

Carter is the big catch for the Astros. He has immense power, and with Minute Maid Park posting a Park Indices mark of 107 for right handed batters (seven percent better than the league average), his power should be on full display, and oh what a stroke it is. Carter powered 12 homers with 53 RBIs in 72 games at Triple-A before blasting 16 homers in just 218 at-bats with the Athletics. A word of caution though. Carter strikes out a ton, 83 in 218 at-bats last season and 124 in 332 career at-bats leading to a scary 32.3 percent K-rate. It’s no surprised he has hit .214 in those 332 at-bats. He’s got oodles of raw power, but he might perform a lot like his new teammate, Carlos Pena, in 2013 (I would have to think that Pena plays first base with Carter at DH most of the time leaving Brett Wallace without a spot in the daily lineup unless the ‘Stros decide to let him play some third base where they appear likely to go with Matt Dominguez to start the year). Peacock had a disastrous 2012 at Triple-A with a 6.01 ERA, 1.58 WHIP and 4.41 BB/9 mark over 134.2 innings. A one time high end prospect, he’s likely to get a chance at the Astros’ fifth rotation spot this spring, but given the downgrade he offered on the field last season he;s likely going to have to prove himself all over again (he was dominant in 2011 though – 15-3, 2.39 ERA, 0.99 WHIP with 177 Ks in 146.2 innings at Double and Triple A). Stassi is a catcher who played at High-A last season and is likely a couple of years away.

I like burritos but not tacos, especially if the tacos have hard shells. Carnitas is my favorite, as are black beans. I think you need something in there to grease the wheel, I like guacamole or sour cream, but I think cheese is a bit of an overkill since, honestly, it’s hard to taste it with everything else in the mix. Just thought I would share.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

Who is the Mets closer? We are left to assume it’s Frank Francisco at the moment, but GM Sandy Alderson isn’t ready to confirm that line of thought. “I think a lot will depend on what we see over the course of February and into March,” Alderson said. “I think that’s something that will be determined in the course of spring training. Health is an issue. Performance is an issue.” Francisco had a 5.53 ERA and 1.61 WHIP last season, though he was surprisingly effective in the saves category converting 23 of 26 chances. He’s a big strikeout arm, 415 in 376.1 career innings, but he’s often bit by the long ball and last season he had a hard time finding the strike zone with a 4.46 BB/9 mark. The Mets may be interested in Jose Valverde, but they would likely be better off going with Bobby Parnell if they don’t go with Frank. Bobby does exactly what I look for in any hurler – he provides strikeouts and grounders. Parnell has averaged 8.25 Ks per nine innings, and last season his ground ball rate was over 61 percent (career 1.80). Last season ha also reigned in the walks issuing just 2.62 batters per nine, and when you throw 96 mph+ batters have a tough squaring up the ball consistently.

Don’t forget to get your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Hurlers: Mound Movement

The start of major league baseball season is getting closer by the hour, and in less than a month Spring Training will officially start rolling. I’m excited too. Today I will review some of the recent player movement on the hill. I’ll talk about some hurlers who are changing roles, have a brief discussion of a guy who has a great mustache who was injured while shoveling snow, and I’ll also discuss a woman that my mom thinks would make a great wife to one Ray Flowers.

Daniel Bard was a relative star as a setup man out of the bullpen for the Red Sox. His role was changed last season, the Sox mistakenly thought he would be better served as a starter, and the results were disastrous. In 2010-11, as a reliever mind you, he posted a 2.62 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 150 Ks in 147.2 innings. Last season? Bard made 17 appearances, 10 as a starter, and here is what happened: 6.22 ERA, 1.74 WHIP, 5.76 K/9. He went from elite to performing like he should be in Double-A virtually overnight. The good news is that he will return to the bullpen this year and that he has been able to rediscover his “old” arm slot. The Sox should have one heck of a pen this season with Bard, Tazawa, Uehara, Bailey and Hanrahan. Wow, that’s an impressive group of arms.

Brandon Beachy killed it last year with a 2.00 ERA an a 0.96 WHIP over 81 innings for the Braves. Unfortunately his season was cut short by an elbow injury that resulted in Tommy John Surgery. His rehab has gone well to this point, he hopes to be able to start throwing off a mound by Spring Training, and there is a belief that he will be able to return to the rotation by June. Great news, but do you draft him? In a mixed league it would be wise to pass unless you have a DL spot (you obviously take a shot in NL-only leagues). It’s still no lock that he will return in June or that he will return to mowing down batters right off the hop.

Shaun Marcum signed a deal with the Mets for $4 million dollars with incentives that could add another $2 million to his one year contract. Marcum has dealt with elbow issues for years but he brings a nice skill-set to a park that certainly isn’t an offensive environment. Since 2008 here is an average Marcum season: 11-7, 3.57 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 7.44 K/9, 2.91 K/BB over an average of 168 innings per season (that’s leaving out 2009 when he missed the entire season). Look at those numbers. Much better than you thought, right? The innings are a bit low for sure, as I noted he’s long had issues with his health which continues to depress his value, but those are some pretty impressive ratios are they not? In fact, among all hurlers who have thrown at least 650 innings since the start of the 2008 season, do you know how many hurlers have posted an ERA under 3.60, allowed 10.85 base runners per nine innings or less while striking out 7.40 or more batters per nine innings with a 2.75 or better K/BB ratio? The answer is 11 — including Mr. Marcum. That’s why I felt very comfortable taking Marcum in the 23rd round in the recently completed 2013 FSTA Experts League.

Just cause. Jennifer Love Hewitt. My mom thinks we would make a wonderful couple.

Carl Pavano fell and ruptured his spleen while he was clearing snow from his driveway. Something is always happening with that guy. To his credit he actually tossed at least 199.1 innings each year from 2009-11, I know a shock, but he regressed to 11 starts and 63 innings last season for the Twins. He’s likely to miss 6-8 weeks with his current injury which might mean he will be forced to take a non-guaranteed deal this season (the Mets and Rockies are said to be the most interested).

David Robertson agreed to a 1-year, $3.1 million deal to continue to ply his trade out of the bullpen of the Yankees. Mariano Rivera is expected to be full recovered from his knee surgery and once again handle 9th inning duties, but with Rafael Soriano out of town (he signed with the Nationals), it seems likely that Robertson will be the primary setup man. Rather quietly Robertson posted a 2.67 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, a 12.02 K/9 an a 4.26 K/BB ratio over 60.2 innings. A little secret. The last two years he has been on of the five best right handed setup men in baseball.

By Ray Flowers

MLB: Monday Madness

I love the Player Profiles, digging deep into a player and trying to ferret out whether or not expectations are too high or too low for the guy. Alas, I don’t want to become monotonous in the way that I cover the world of baseball, so I’m throwing a change up. Today I’m gonna touch on a handful of stories that have cropped up over the last 24-48 hours and give my take on players as diverse as Oswalt, Pujols, Trout, Marcum and Webb.

Shaun Marcum is still without a team, though Jon Paul Morosi is reporting that the Padres, Pirates and Rangers are all showing interest in the righty hurler of late (the Indians, Royals and Twins have also been mentioned as possible landing spots). There are issues concerning his health, he was limited to just 124 innings last season and has a history of issues with the wing, but whenever he is on the hill he’s been a damn fine big league hurler (last year’s 3.70 ERA and 1.27 WHIP were both four year highs). If Marcum’s healthy he’s an ideal #4 starter with SP3 upside.

Roy Oswalt hasn’t decided if he wants to pitch this season, but it sounds like even if he does return he may pull a Roger Clemens and only pitch for half the year. Oswalt was a huge letdown last season in his 59 innings with the Rangers posting a 5.80 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. Given that his career numbers are 3.28 and 1.20 you can see just how off the rails things were last year. It may be hard to tell given how bad he was onteh surface, but Oswalt still did some awfully nice things last year. He struck out a better per inning. He posted a 1.68 BB/9 mark which was a six year low. The result was a 5.36 K/BB ratio which was his best mark since his rookie season of 2001. He had a GB/FB ratio of 1.42, only four hundredths below his career mark an actually a four year best. He was done in by a career worst .378 BABIP (just .079 points above his career mark) and by a HR/F ratio of 18.6 percent (in his previous 10 seasons only twice did that ratio even reach double-digits). If he wants to, if he’s motivated and healthy (his back is an issue), he can still help out plenty of teams on the hill.

Have you ever had a Mexican torta? I’m getting me one for lunch today from the local taqueria.

Justin Smoak hasn’t lived up to expectations – about as obvious a statement as saying that Mike Trout is a really good baseball player (more on Trout below). The Mariners have brought in vets this offseason, and if guys like Jason Bay, Raul Ibanez and Kendrys Morales are up to speed, it’s possible that Smoak would be without a spot in the daily lineup (what do you expect when you’ve hit .223 with a .683 OPS over 355 career games). The Red Sox, still uncertain about how the Mike Napoli situation is going to play out, have apparently reached out to the Mariners to gauge whether or not the club might be willing to deal the first baseman. Smoak still could end up being a productive run producer, think Carlos Pena at the dish without the walks, though that would obviously be a significant issue for Smoak since he’s shown an inability to get on base (career .306 OBP).

For the hell of it – puppies.

Mike Trout continues to be the early leader for the #1 selection in fantasy leagues according to ADP. I knew it would happen, didn’t we all, but I’m still a bit surprised by it. How anyone could take him over Ryan Braun and Miguel Cabrera is beyond me.

The D’backs still sound like they want to deal Justin Upton. I just don’t get it. For more on this situation check out my piece entitled Pujols at End of Road? That article also gives a rundown of what you should be thinking about Mr. Pujols heading into 2013.

Brandon Webb is drawing a bit of interest on the market with the latest team reportedly kicking the tires being the Rockies. Webb is just the type of arm that the Rockies covet as he’s a guy who disdains the fly ball. For his career Webb owns a 64.2 percent ground ball rate, and each of the six seasons he threw at least 180 innings that mark was at least 61.8 percent. Unfortunately he last threw a big league pitch in 2009, and even then it was just four innings worth of throws. Webb has had surgery and been doing his best to get his arm back in shape – his shoulder is the issue – so I wish him luck. The odds are about as strongly against him as possible in his bid to return to big league baseball though.

By Ray Flowers

Operation Zero: The 2013 Hall of Fame Class

I’ve resisted writing about the 2013 MLB Hall of Fame candidates up until this point. Before detailing why it is insane that no players were elected to the Hall of Fame this year, I thought I would simply cut and past some of my tweets from the BaseballGuys’ Twitter feed over the past few days.

So hypocritical – people are busted weekly in NFL for steroids, no one cares. Merriman made the Pro Bowl year he got popped.

We have the Mitchell Report and what else? There’s no way to know what someone did 15 years ago.

Everyone can think what they want, I just think it’s extremely cynical just to assume everyone who is good is guilty.

Did some players use drugs to enhance their performance? Absolutely they did. Do we know everyone who did/didn’t? There is no way to know.

We have to judge players against others in their era. I’m so sick of Everyone accusing Every player of cheating w/o proof.

My point is that we have NO idea who used PEDs and who didn’t. In USA you’re innocent until PROVEN guilty.

Players in the 1970′s all used “greenies” – do we then say everyone in the 70′s is a cheater and should be downgraded?

Can’t we just say the era is tainted and move on? This PED stuff is soooo played out.

Newsflash people – players have cheated since the game was invented.

And this from Dustin Swedelson, a producer at SiriusXM (@dustinswedelson)

Remember when the writers who vote for baseball HOF’s jobs mattered again because of the steroid era? Didn’t hear them investigate then

Here’s my bottom line. We don’t know who did PED’s. We will never know. Baseball needs to decide how it will handle this. (A) We say everyone who played baseball for 15 years can’t be inducted into Cooperstown. (B) We admit that players cheated, compare them against their contemporaries, and judge them based upon their on the field merits. It’s really as simple as that folks. Without evidence, EVIDENCE, we can’t choose to exclude or include this person or that person because of a feeling. Well people can, but it’s grossly misguided and absolutely nonsensical for people to do so. So stop the madness folks. Decide everyone is out or everyone will be judged based on their performance. Short of irrefutable proof that a player cheated it’s an assault on common sense to exclude players simply because you have a “feeling” they cheated. Preposterous.

Here are the actual results of the 2013 vote.

Here are my thoughts on all the players who received at least 10 percent of the 2013 vote.

Craig Biggio (68.2 percent – 75 percent is needed for election): One of the scrappiest player of the last 30 years, Biggio came up as a catcher, won four Gold Gloves at second base, and then moved to the outfield later in his career. Other than a guy like Pete Rose, who has done that at the level of Biggio? Craig is 15th all-time in runs scored, 21st in hits (3,060) and fifth in doubles. Heck, he even went deep 291 times in his career. He should be enshrined.

Jack Morris (67.7 percent): His support continues to grow, but it’s revisionist history. The guy may have thrown a ton of innings and come up big in some big games, but my HOF has no place for a pitcher who never led the league in WHIP or ERA, and only once led his league in strikeouts (232 in 1983). Heck, he was never even the runner up for the Cy Young Award.

Jeff Bagwell (59.6 percent): My thoughts can be found in The Case for Bagwell.

Mike Piazza (57.8 percent): How in the world can the greatest hitting catcher of all-time not be in the HOF? From 1993-2002 an average Pizza season was a .322 average, 35 homers, 107 RBIs, 85 runs scored and an OPS of .969. How many elite level players ever have a season that good once? – and he did it for a decade. While catching.

Tim Raines (52.2 percent): A travesty he’s not been elected. See HOF: Tim Raines.

Lee Smith (47.8 percent): I gave my thoughts on closers in What is a HOF Closer? The 478 saves are amazing, and his longevity is impressive (13-straight years with at least 25 saves from 1983-95). I’m not overly impressive by guys that throw one inning though. I’m even less impressed by a guys save total as saves are a result of opportunity (we all know some teams use their “better” pitcher in a setup role). A 8.73 K/9, 2.57 K/BB, 3.03 ERA and 1.26 WHIP just don’t do it for me.

Curt Schilling (38.8 percent): He was dominant in the post-season going 11-2 with a 2.23 ERA and 0.97 WHIP and that’s great, but someone shouldn’t be in or out based on 133.1 playoff innings. Won “only” 216 games but had a solid .597 winning percentage, and for his career his ERA+ was 127 meaning his 3.46 raw ERA was 27 percent better than the league average, an impressive number. He also struck better than 8.5 batters per nine, and for his career his 4.38 K/BB ratio is elite (it’s the best ever for a pitcher who threw 3,000 innings). He’s in – barely.

Roger Clemens (37.6 percent): One of the 10 greatest pitchers of all-time if you judge base on the numbers. An MVP award, seven Cy Young’s, 9th all-time in wins, 3rd in strikeouts and his ERA+ was 143, forty three percent better than the league average (his raw ERA was 3.12, his WHIP 1.17). The case against him is certainly there, but I’m still putting him in.

Barry Bonds (36.2 percent): There may be no more conclusive case about PED use for a player than the case with Bonds. Fourteen All-Star games, eight Gold Gloves, seven MVP awards – separated by eight years (his last of the ‘first’ cycle was in 1993 and his first in the ‘second’ cycle was 2001). First all-time in homers, 3rd in runs, 4th in RBIs, 6th in OBP, 6th in SLG and 4th in OPS. Oh yeah, he also stole 514 bags. One of the three greatest offensive forces the game ever saw. He’s out, and it’s a shame, but honestly, this call is more an indictment of baseball than Bonds.

Edgar Martinez (35.9 percent): See the argument in Is There Room for a DH?

Alan Trammell (33.6 percent): A really good player who had four Gold Gloves and six All-Star games nods. Still, he only finished as a top-5 MVP vote getter once, only had two 20 homer seasons, only one 100 RBI effort and just three seasons of more than 85 runs scored. Really good, but the Hall of Fame is for great – even if he was a very good fielder.

Larry Walker (21.6 percent): My best guess is that he will never be voted in, not because of PED use, but because people hold Coors Field, pre-humidor, against him. He finished his career with more homers than Joe DiMaggio (383 to 361), had more RBIs than Roberto Clemente (1,311 to 1,305), had more runs scored than Barry Larkin (1,355 to 1,329), a better batting average than Manny Ramirez (.313 to .312) and a better OPS than than all but 15 other men who played the game (.965). He’s also the only man since 1930 to have three straight seasons of hitting .360 (1997-99). Based upon the numbers he’s gotta be in, but with only a handful of huge run producing seasons, only four 140 games seasons, and the Coors Field effect, he’s as close as you can get for me without being included.

Fred McGriff (20.7 percent): See the discussion Is McGriff Hall Worthy?

Dale Murphy (18.6 percent): My favorite player as a kid, and even better than his work on the field is the fact that he is an amazing human being who never once had a hint of scandal. From 1980-89 here are Murphy’s ranks among all players: 2nd in extra base hits, 2nd in HRs, 2nd in RBIs and 4th in runs. He also won 2 MVPs, was named to the All-Star team seven times and he won five Gold Gloves. One other plus. In 1980 Murphy was catcher eligible in fantasy baseball (27 games at C in ’79). He went .281-33-89-98-9. Just barely outside without a key to the door. He will have to hope the Veteran’s Committee votes him in as his 15 years on the regular ballot are up.

Mark McGwire (16.9 percent): An admitted cheater. From 1987 through his final year in the big leagues (2001), here is how McGwire ranked in a myriad of categories for that 15-year stretch: McGwire hit 580 homers, the most in baseball (Barry Bonds had 551). McGwire had 1,405 RBI, third most in baseball (Bonds had 1,494). McGwire had a .590 SLG, the third best mark in baseball (Bonds and Manny Ramirez led the way at .594). McGwire had a .985 OPS, fourth in baseball (Bonds at 1.017). I’ll leave him out since he admitted cheating, but even so, I’m inclined to cast my vote in favor of his election given his work on the field. Being honest actually works against McGwire… does that seem right to you?

Don Mattingly (13.2 percent): Mattingly had a very short peak as an elite hitter (before his back went bad), but from ’84-’89 here are his big league rankings: 3rd in AVG, 1st in 2B, 1st in EBH, 1st in RBI, 6th HR, 5th OPS. Mattingly also won nine Gold Gloves for his work at first base. A great player but he’s on the outside looking in cause his elite performance didn’t last long enough.

Sammy Sosa (12.5 percent): Everyone “knows” he cheated, but unlike McGwire he never admitted it (famously Sosa acted like he couldn’t speak English when he was called in front of Congress). From 1994-2003 here is what an “average” Sosa season looked like: .290-47-122-104-13 with a .958 OPS. Since we don’t have “proof” that he cheated, he goes in on my ballot. Remember, I’m not voting people out because we “know” a guy was dirty.

Finally, two articles.

A very informative piece from the NY Times entitled Hall of Fame Has Always Made Room for Infamy.

Jayson Stark’s Take on what the HOF has become.

By Ray Flowers

2012: Merry Christmas

Everyone who knows me is aware of my fondness for the holiday season. My love affair for all things celebratory starts off with the dark and mysterious Halloween season. After a brief respite filled with turkey and gravy (my brother’s a chef so it’s always a wonderful meal for Thanksgiving), the season moves to snowmen, elves and Santa Claus. So forgive me for pointing out a few holiday factoids as, for once, I will ignore the game of baseball in one of my posts.

The actual date that Jesus was born is not known. It certainly was not December 25th.

Christmas celebrations likely began in the late 3rd century.

German decedents apparently brought the Christmas tree to north America. At first they were just small trees that often rested on tables. Presently, about 88 percent of families in the U.S. put up a tree. That equates to roughly 25-30 million actual trees with 8-12 million more of the artificial variety.

We can thank the Irish for bringing Christmas lights. Originally trees were lit by burning candles.

Santa Claus has a much richer history than you might think. Was he a real person? Click on the History Channel link for a video discussing the evolution of the bearded one.

There are two cities in the U.S named Santa Claus. One is in Indiana, the other in Georgia.

From Thanksgiving through Christmas Eve the U.S. Postal service delivers roughly 15.8 billion items.

* Facts according to the History Channel.

Finally, here are some Christmas movie favorites for those of you wanting to sit in front of the fire with a cup of coco an a nice holiday tale.

A Christmas Story (1983): It’s become part of Christmas for so many as TBS plays it for 24-straight hours starting on Christmas Eve. If you haven’t seen it you now have your order for the holiday. No movie has ever captured what it was like to be a kid at Christmas better than this one.

It’s a Wonderful Life (1947): The quintessential Christmas movie about family and second chances. James Stewart was never better. If you watch nothing else, make sure you view this one an A Christmas Story in a wonderful double-feature.

Miracle on 34th Street (1947): Don’t watch the 1994 version, or for that matter the colored version of the classic. Watch the old black and white version from ’47. The story of a man trying to prove to everyone that he is indeed Santa Claus.

The Nightmare Before Christmas (1993): A perfect mix for those, like myself, who love Halloween and Christmas. A wonderful film stylized by Tim Burton using stop motion figures. The head of Halloweentown is tired of always scaring people, so he kidnaps Santa and tries to take his place.

Elf (2003): If you don’t like this one you must be a Grinch. Perfect for the whole family. Will Ferrell has never been funnier. A charming comedy.

Christmas Story (2007): Not to be confused with the comedy above by nearly the same title. There is no CGI or elves or laughter in this one. This is a Finnish flick that tells the story of how a boy becomes Santa Claus. Consider this more of a biopic of how Nikolas becomes St. Nick.

Bad Santa (2003): Filthy, disgusting, lewd — perfect for those of you who like black humor or want a to have some side splitting laughs on the holiday. Rated R for language and Santa Sex so it’s not for kids, but it’s still the best “worst” Christmas movie ever made.

Happy Holidays to you all, whether you celebrate Christmas or not. I hope at this time of year you are surrounded by family and friends that love you. Cheers everyone.

By Ray Flowers

Trade Breakdown: D’Backs, Indians, Reds

We’ve had quite the exciting offseason in baseball with players being dealt faster than Lindsey Lohan has racked up court appearances. The latest deal was a huge three way effort that includes a couple of 20/20 performers and one of the brightest young arms in baseball. Here is how all the dealing played itself out between the Diamondbacks, Indians and Reds.

Arizona Receives: Didi Gregorius, Tony Sipp and Lars Anderson

Cincinnati Receives: Shin-Soo Choo, Jason Donald

Cleveland Receives: Drew Stubbs, Trevor Bauer, Matt Albers, Bryan Shaw

Let’s go team by team and how these players should be looked at for the 2013 season.

DIAMONDBACKS

First off, not quite sure what the D’backs are doing, and I’ll have more on that in a coming piece about Justin Upton. As for this deal…

Gregorius is the shortstop that the Diamondbacks claimed they must have (they have been tied to Andrus/Profar of the Rangers and Simmons of the Braves all offseason). Most new-school baseball folks are of the opinion that Gregorius is a solid defender who isn’t likely to be an all-star because of his bat, but there is no denying his physical gifts (for more see MLB’s Prospect Watch Report). Gregorius has hit a mere .271 in the minors with a .699 OPS, and just 40 steals over 443 games. He’s 23 and ready for a big league gig right now, though how far he develops is anyone’s guess (opinions are pretty divergent).

Sipp is a decent arm who strikes out a batter an innings, but he’s also never walked fewer than 3.47 batters per nine innings, and is constantly allowing home runs (1.47 per nine innings over 248 outings). He’s nothing more than a passable setup arm and could get a lot of holds.

Anderson used to be a player with a future, he was Baseball America’s 17th ranked prospect in 2009, but he’s accrued only 48 big league at-bats hitting .167 without a single homer. Not just that, but the 25 year old hit .250 with nine homers in 111 games at Triple-A last year. He’s nothing more than organizational depth at this point.

REDS

The Reds brought back Ryan Ludwick to play left field (2-years, $15 million), and they have a perennial 30 homer bat in right field in Jay Bruce. That means newly acquired Shin-Soo Choo will have to take over in center field, a position he has appeared at only 10 times in 699 big league games. But the Reds didn’t add Choo for his defense, they added him for his offense. A 20/20 performer who hit .300 in each of the 2009 and 2010 seasons, Choo was limited to a mere 85 games in 2011 due to thumb and back issues. He started off very slowly in 2012 but in the end he was nearly back to his previous levels as he hit .283 with 16 homers, 21 steals an a career best 88 runs scored last season. Still a threat to go 20/20 while hitting .280 or better (career .289), Choo’s real value to the Reds is in his ability to get on base. Not only did he post a mark of .373 last year in the OBP column, but he also owns a career .381 mark. His performance also took off last year when the Indians asked him to lead off, and in 99 game there last season his OBP was .389. Choo will be asked to hit leadoff for the Reds. Studies have shown that each spot in the batting order that a player moves up he gains about 15 plate appearances. Obviously that news should be music to Choo’s ears. As a result the deal his 2013 fantasy outlook is shaping up as a potentially huge one. A 20/20 effort cannot be ruled out, and hitting atop a powerful Reds’ lineup, and spending half his games at Great American Ballpark, should give Choo a real shot at 100 runs for the first time if he can stay healthy.

Don’t forget either, this move signals that Billy Hamilton will not break camp with the Reds in 2013. Not only that, Billy may not even be up at the All-Star break cause you don’t want to bring up a young guy and just ask him to sit on the bench, that’s just not good for anyone’s development. He might not be anything other than a September call-up while he learns a new position (center field).

Donald? Move on in the fantasy game. There is nothing to see here.

INDIANS

Bauer is an elite arm and it’s shocking to see the D’Backs so quickly give up on him. Bauer walked 13 batters an posted a 6.06 ERA in four starts last year, but we all know that small sample sizes can skew numbers dramatically. All this talk about his funky mechanics and preparation methods are ridiculous to use as a reason for Arizona to deal him. Bauer never pretended to be anyone other than who he was. Why was that OK a year an a half ago for the D’backs and not now (they drafted him 3rd overall in 2011)? It might also be wise to point out two main facts. (1) Bauer is one of the greatest pitchers in the history of college baseball. (2) Here are his minor league numbers in 29 starts: 13-4, 3.00 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 11.5 K/9. His control can desert him at times, and that’s a concern, but this guy is uber talented and more than capable of being a mixed league option in 2013.

Stubbs is an elite talent with an unhealthy love of the strikeout that often tramps down his production. For his career Stubbs has a K-rate of more than 29 percent and that has led to 3-straight years of 165 Ks. As a result his career OBP of .312 is awful, but somehow he was able to convince the Reds that he should be their leadoff hitter. He shouldn’t ever see an at-bat at the top of the order (he’s a 6th hitter if I ever saw one). He’s a flawed player, and one who isn’t likely to suddenly rectify that issue with a new team, but this deal is actually still good news for Stubbs. Why? He was at serious risk of losing playing time if he remained with the Reds. With the Indians playing time shouldn’t be an issue. A three time 30 steal man, it might surprise many of you out there to learn that over the past three seasons that Stubbs has averaged 17 homers, 86 runs scored and 33 steals. That’s near near a 20/30 season with 86 runs scored folks, and that’s his average the past three years. Yes his batting average is just .241 for his career but just like with B.J. Upton (more on him in his Player Profile) Stubbs is an impressive fantasy performer if you can find a way to work around his batting average.

Albers has appeared in 300 games in the big leagues with little to show for it. He did have a strong season last year with a 2.39 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over 60.1 innings, but that was his first season of relevance. Still can’t feel that great about a guy who strikes out 6.5 batters per nine innings while walking more than four per nine, even if he is a strong ground ball arm (1.59 GB/FB). Worth a look in AL-only leagues in the reserve rounds.

Shaw is even more of a ground ball option than Albers with a ground ball rate of 57.5 percent over his two big league seasons. That’s an elite mark. If he keeps that up he is going to have an awfully long big league career. In the fantasy game though there is nothing at all that stands out one bit. Lower on the totem pole than Albers in terms of his fantasy value.

By Ray Flowers

Winter Meetings Wrap Up

There were plenty of big names thrown around town, chief among them Josh Hamilton and Zack Greinke, but in the end there were no earth shattering moves at the Baseball Winter Meetings. There were a handful of moves involving useful players however, so let’s take a moment to wrap up the meetings, and the week, by looking at some of that movement.

Joe Blanton, who I’ll have a write up on in the coming days, signed a two year, $15 million deal with the Angels. He’s no Zack Greinke but he’s a solid hurler, durable, and the terms of the deal certainly aren’t prohibitive by any means. Many think this is a bad deal based on his 4.71 ERA last season but I’m telling you his ERA should have been a run lower last season than it was. Solid.

Sean Burnett received a two year deal for $8 million from the Angels who are amassing one hell of a bullpen. Not just that, but I don’t know how the Angels convinced him to take so little after Jeremy Affeldt received 3/$18 million from the Giants. Burnett struck out 57 batters in 56.2 innings with an impressive 4.75 K/BB ratio, not to mention a superb 2.51 GB/FB ratio, for the Nationals last season.

Andrew Cashner failed to be the breakout candidate many hoped for last season as injuries limited him to a mere 46.1 innings. Still, he punched out 52 batters in 46.1 innings, and there is a lot of excitement about him starting for the Padres in 2013. Unfortunately, he’s unlikely to be ready for spring after a hunting accident. Apparently a friend slipped on the trip, fell, and sliced the thumb of Cashner with his knife necessitating surgery that will likely keep Andrew out of action for about three months. I’m not going to say it serves him right, but honestly, I just don’t get hunting, at all. If you need to eat that’s one thing, but what is the sport in shooting an animal that is just standing there? Sorry, just don’t get it.

Ben Revere was dealt from the Twins to the Phillies in exchange for Vance Worley and minor leaguer Trevor May. It seems very odd to me that the Twins would deal Denard Span and Revere within a week of one another (for more on Span see his Player Profile). Clearly, the Twins have no intention of competing in 2013 and are desperate for starting pitching. Revere, looking pretty much like a direct Juan Pierre clone, hit .294 with 40 steals in 124 games last season. He’ll never hit for power and may never get on base at a rate much better than the league average, but his speed makes him a superb play in the fantasy game. As for the Twins, their outfield is in shambles. It’s looking like Josh Willingham, Trevor Plouffe and… Brandon Hicks? GM Terry Ryan also stated that Darin Mastroianni and Joe Benson will battle for a starting spot with Hicks, but that doesn’t really help matters much now does it. Can feel the excitement? The Twins, they receive May who has struck out more than 11 batters per nine innings in the minors, and if everything breaks right could be a #3 starter in the bigs. The Twins are hoping that Vance Worley is the real deal. Worley is coming back from elbow surgery in September as he had some loose bodies and a bone spur removed. Everyone is confident he will be healthy by spring. Worley owns some solid numbers – 7.71 K/9, 2.45 K/BB, 1.28 GB/FB ratio – even if nothing really stands out. Best case he’ll be a weak SP2, but more than likely the Twins would be happy if he emerged as solid third starter for them.

Nate Schierholtz signed a one year deal with the Cubs for a reported $2.25 million ($500,000 in incentives). Having watched him play for years that’s a strong signing by the Cubs. Nate is an elite defender who is a solid hitter with a bit of speed. He’s not an exciting fantasy option, but he’s an ideal 4th outfielder in the real world who could be quite effective if given consistent work. Speaking of the Cubs. Brett Jackson, another outfielder, has revamped his swing this offseason in an attempt to cut down his massive K-rate. He’s a 20/20 talent, especially if he puts the ball in play more effectively. Finally, the Cubs gave a 1-year, $2 million deal to former power hitter Ian Stewart (it looks like he will battle Luis Valbuena for the starting job). Only in America could a guy hit .183 withfive homers an a .561 OPS over 301 at-bats the last two years and get two million dollars.

Koji Uehara received a little over $4 million to ink a one year deal with the Red Sox. Born on the same day as my brother (04-03-1975), Koji is coming off a season in which he was limited to 36 innings because of injury. However, he was as good as ever when on the bump with a 10.75 K/9 mark and just three walks on the season leading to a 14.33 K/BB ratio. That 14.33 mark was the third best mark since 1885 in a season of 35 innings pitched (only Dennis Eckersley bettered it at 18.33 and 18.25 in 1989-90). Uehara also owns the all-time big league record with a 7.70 K/BB ratio (minimum 200 innings pitched). A strong signing if he can stay healthy.

Also… some links to my recent Player Profiles of a handful of players who have switched teams in the past week (those who deserve a bit more than the passing glance most of the players in this article received).

Dan Haren

Mike Napoli

B.J. Upton

Shane Victorino

By Ray Flowers