AFL – 2011 Review

I had a great time at the Arizona Fall League this year. So much to tell, from the adventures, to some of my thoughts on the players. Where to begin…?

It was amazing to be able to broadcast from the Rising Stars Game for SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. We had a booth in the press box pretty much directly behind home plate. The picture to the left was taken from our view in the box. Felt like a VIP up there.

Beautiful ballpark there at Surprise, Arizona. It has like 125 acres of land, tons of ball fields on the side, and it’s got a great atmosphere in the stands. Make sure you get dropped off on the right side of the stadium though or you’ll be looking at a 20 minute walk to get around the massive complex (I’m speaking from experience unfortunately).

I was able to get down on the field with my co-host Kyle Elfrink to take in batting practice. We also had the unique opportunity to interview a few of the future stars of the game in Wil Myers of the Royals, Jaff Decker of the Padres and Mike Trout of the Angels. You can clink on the links to listen to portions of all three interviews.

Garrett Cole, the top selection of the Pirates, got lit up for five runs in his first inning of work in the Rising Stars game. Still, the stuff was on full display. According to Jason Grey of ESPN, who we interviewed during the game, Cole’s stuff looked amazing including the nearly triple digit heat that was on full display. His problem on the night were two fastballs he left right over the hear of the plate.

Matt Dominguez of the Marlins’ was a bit banged up with a thumb issue. You would have never known it watching him stroke ball after ball over the fence in batting practice.

We didn’t get a chance to talk to Bryce Harper, I’ll break him down in a moment, but we were able to talk to Stu Cole of the Rockies. The manager of the East Division in the Rising Stars game told us how impressed he was with the talent of Harper and Trout who were both on the East squad. Thanks to Mr. Cole as well, a class act. It was also pretty neat to walking around with a wireless microphone interviewing people on the field as Kyle was in the booth. Now I know what it feels like to be Erin Andrews.

I was surprised by just how big some of these 20, 21, 22 year old kids were. It’s no longer ‘when he fills out he’ll be able to…” it’s “he’s already physically mature, now it’s just about how can he develop his skills.”

Speaking of skills, Bryce Harper is amazing. Watching him take batting practice was impressive. The 19 year old simply put the barrel on the ball with every cut. The short stride, the balance, the level swing with the perfect throw of the head of the bat, clearly he’s going to be a tremendous ball player. One three swing sequence in BP said it all. First pitch – line drive to left field. Second pitch – line drive to center field. Third pitch – line drive to right field. I told you, impressive.

Jeff Mans of FantasyAlarm.com – one of the funnier guys you will ever meet. It’s all about the frosted tips Jeff. Let me know when you get that text too, will ya?

Wil Myers, who we interviewed, has quite the stroke. He’s going to be a huge hitter in the majors. It’s obvious why the Royals aren’t interested in adding in the rumored deal with the Braves for Martin Prado and Jair Jurrjens.

Thanks to Matt Deutsch and SirusXM for treating us well and giving us a chance to cover the Arizona Fall League. Also, thanks to Ron Shandler and Baseball HQ for their First Pitch Forums – a great way to get a jump on the competition.

Joe Panik of the Giants isn’t overly impressive physically, but the kid is a player. He’ll be a solid player for years, even if he never reaches stardom.

For those you who are wondering, yes, there are tremendously hot women all over the place in Phoenix. I so want to go back to college really badly.

Joey Terdoslavich of the Braves had the most impressive swing of the game. He took a 99 mph fastball from Cole and probably hit it 440 feet to dead centerfield. It was a total bomb.

So there it is. Now it’s time to get some sleep. You’d be amazed at how hard it is to be this cool.

By Ray Flowers

The Arrival of Mike Trout

photo © 2010 HuntFishGuide.com | more info (via: Wylio)

Mike Trout is one of the top-10 prospects in baseball. In fact, he’s even better than that. According to Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com, Trout is the top prospect in baseball. Baseball Prospectus had less faith in Trout. They listed him #2 (behind Bryce Harper). That’s the same way the folks over at Baseball America had it as well (Harper-Trout).

Clearly those people that are paid to predict future greatness for youngsters all think the same thing – Trout will be a superstar in the big leagues.

The Angels pulled a surprising move by calling up Trout to the big league club because of the hamstring injury suffered by Peter Bourjos Thursday (Bourjos isn’t going to play through the weekend, but a decision to place him on the DL is not a foregone conclusion). You might be asking yourself – why is it surprising that the Angels would call up a prospect who everyone agrees has such a luminous future? The answer is that Trout is just 19 years old (he wont turn 20 for a month). So what are my thoughts on Trout, a kid who is barely old enough to join the armed forces and isn’t legally able to drink alcohol?

THE SKILLS

You don’t end up at the top, or near the top, of every prospect list without an overabundance of skills. Trout is 6’1”, 200 lbs, and he brings elite speed to the table. His power is still developing, but he does have a pretty advanced understanding of the strike zone for a player his age. He’s also roundly given the thumbs up when it comes to his maturity level – he’s not one of these punk kids we see so often.

Trout was hitting .330 with a .422 OBP in the minors this season.

He’d also gone deep nine times with 28 steals in just 74 games played.

In three seasons in the minors Trout owns a slash line of .338/.423/.503.

Toss in 97 steals in just 250 games and you can plainly see why everyone is so high on this kid.

Think Grady Sizemore at his peak, a 20/30 guy who will score a ton of runs, and that’s what Trout will likely be one day. Notice I said one day and not today…

THE OUTLOOK

The last teenager in the majors was Justin Upton in 2007 if I’m not mistaken. As wonderful a player as Upton is, he hit only .221 in 140 at-bats that year. It’s just not that easy to make the jump from the minors to the majors. It’s also not easy to make the move when you have only 74 games under your belt above Single-A ball. Mix in the fact that Trout hasn’t even been on Earth for two decades yet, and the road is likely to be bumpy. If Trout hits the ground running, I decided to leave out some lame joke about a stream or river, he could stick with the Angels. However, if he struggles at all the club will not hesitate to send him back to the minors. Also, if Bourjos doesn’t need a DL stint, the team would likely turn the starting spot back over to him since they are pleased with his bat and feel that he is the best defensive center fielder in baseball.

Keeper Leagues: Fall all over yourself to add Trout.

AL-only League: Spend that FAAB money liberally.

Mix Leagues: It’s a crap shoot. Don’t go all in, but if you have a roster spot feel free to add the mega talent.

Now, a mailbag question.

I’m sure you’re on this for an upcoming article but wanted to check and see what hitters/pitchers are 2nd half performers? May be some good insight for possible trades.
– Jim

I will be giving my BUY/SELL thoughts on players next week. However, I don’t put much into ‘this guy is really good in the second half’ stuff. It’s so random. Here is a an example.

Someone might be considered to be a 2nd half hitter because of a .300 batting average. However, if you actually look at his second half performances maybe he’s hit .375, .225, .335 and .265 the past four years. Overall he’s a .300 hitter in the second half, but his performances have been all over the map if you go year by year. Basically saying first/second half is just as random as saying July/August. They are just random points to start analyzing the data. Remember that before you make a deal for a guy who is a “second half player.”

By Ray Flowers

Rookie Roundup

photo © 2011 Keith Allison | more info (via: Wylio)

I always caution people not to go “all in” with rookies. The lure is intense, I’m not going to deny that, but in the end youngsters often end up disappointing because of the unreasonable expectations placed upon them. With that, here are my thoughts on some of the more heralded rookies who many were banking on getting great results from in 2011.

Dustin Ackley (.267-1-3-2-0 in 15 ABs)
Ackley is off to a solid start to his big league career with a hit in each of his four games played. He’s only whiffed one time though we’ve yet to see his trademark ability to get on base as he has only one walk. The Mariners say he’s going to play every day, and with that he is an intriguing mixed league option. I wrote about Ackley in The Prospect Trinity.

Domonic Brown (.213-4-11-11-2 in 94 ABs)
Brown has tons of talent, all the physical tools needed to be a fantasy star really, but he’s still a pretty raw ballplayer. Add in his work from last season and we are looking at a guy with a .212/.274/.385 slash line in 156 big league at-bats. The six homers and 24 RBI in that time are passable, as are the four steals, but the fact of the matter is that Brown still needs to hone his ample skills because he’s shown little consistency with the Phillies.

Eric Hosmer (.276-5-22-20-2 in 17 ABs)
The Royals’ phenom burst on to the scene with five homers and 17 RBI in his first 23 games. However, in the 18 games since his hot start he’s managed a mere .615 OPS thanks in part to zero homers in 71 at-bats. He’s also knocked in only five runs in the month of June. Given how deep the first base position is, it may be time to see if you can convince someone in your league that Hosmer is the hitter he was in May and not the guy who is struggling to keep his OBP (.326) and SLG (.418) at league average levels (.323 and .397).

Desmond Jennings (.282-10-33-52-12 in 262 ABs at Triple-A)
Jennings has show more power this season than at any point of his development, but unfortunately he’s pretty much stopped running on the bases. Given his skill set he’s going to be paid to steal 40+ bases, not to power 25 homers, so he’d be well served to get back to that approach. With Matt Joyce struggling and Johnny Damon being a potential trade chip at the deadline, Jennings will be called up at some point, though it remains to be seen how imminent the call will be. See The Prospect Trinity, linked to above, for more thoughts on Jennings.

Brett Lawrie (.354-15-49-51-11 in 223 ABs)
He was tearing it up in the minors and was mere days, literally, from being a starting member of the Blue Jays when fate stepped in. Lawrie ended up suffering a fractured hand that he is still working his way back from. It’s highly unlikely we will see him with the Jays before the All-Star break at this point, and that’s if when he returns to action that he picks up where he left off, far from a certainty given his injury. See The Prospect Trinity, linked to above, for more thoughts on Lawrie.

Jesus Montero (.291-5-25-25 in 227 ABs)
Russell Martin has done pretty well this season, Francisco Cervelli is an adequate backup backstop, and Jorge Posada is also always around if the Yankees need a hand behind the dish. That’s a lot of names that Montero will have to jump over. There is always the chance that the club will call him up to DH, but Posada has improved of late (.395 in June) and you would have to think that in the heat of the pennant race that the Yankees would make a move to add a veteran bat if they needed a hitter versus turning things over to an unproven rookie.

Anthony Rizzo (.167-1-2-3-0 in 36 ABs)
First off, it’s merely 36 at-bats, so no one should be panicking. However, Rizzo hasn’t been able to carry over his success in the minors as of yet, something I predicted could happen in my June 7, 2011 Mailbag article. The good news for Rizzo is that the team is committed to him and he will continue to play every day despite the slow start. However, it should be pointed out that he has struck out in a third of his at-bats and has just one RBI in his last nine games.

Speaking of youngsters, I dug up an old article I wrote about the Arizona Fall League in November 2009. You might want to give it a read to see what my first hand impressions were about Ackley, Brown, Mike Moustakas, Ike Davis, Buster Posey and Jemile Weeks amongst others. How accurate were my initial thoughts after watching games for three days?

By Ray Flowers

The Prospect Trinity

photo © 2011 Mike Durkin | more info (via: Wylio)

Everyone loves rookies and the promise of being the first guy to claim the next future star. The chance to grab an all-star caliber player off of waivers is ever enticing despite the fact that the overwhelming majority of rookies fail each year to reach their promise.

I’m going to break down three youngsters that I get questions about literally every day. I expect all of these players to have long and productive careers. Will that happen starting this month? Your guess is as good as mine there, so I’d caution you to avoid dropping established major league players to take a shot on guys that have scant big league work under their belt.

Brett Lawrie: .354-15-49-51-11 with a .1092 OPS in 223 ABs
Competition: Edwin Encarnacion, John McDonald, Jayson Nix

The world got a scare last night when Lawrie was hit by a pitch on his left wrist. Reports suggest that he will be fine, though it remains unclear if this will preclude him from being promoted on Friday as the rumor mill suggests (that seems highly unlikely now).

A youngster with only 51 games of experience above Double-A, Lawrie is a mere 21 years old. Though he had a solid season in 2010 at Double-A (.285-8-63-90-30), it was but not an otherworldly effort. Still, he was ranked as the 28th best prospect in baseball coming into the 2011 campaign, the skills were just too impressive to ignore, and he’s done nothing to dissuade anyone from that opinion with his blazing start to this season.

The PCL, and Las Vegas in particular, is a hitters haven. At the same time, you can’t write off the production of Lawrie because of that. As a scout recently quipped, when Lawrie swings the bat it is with ill intent. He has power, doesn’t strike out too frequently (17.9 percent K-rate), and when he gets on base he knows how to swipe a bad. To put it bluntly, there isn’t much the guy can’t do on offense.

A second baseman, Lawrie’s been shifted to third because of the anemic production of the Blue Jays’ third baseman (at one point last week Nix, McDonald and Encarnacion went 0-for-45). With little to block him from taking on a full-time role, it shouldn’t be long before Lawrie is lashing liners for the Blue Jays.

Dustin Ackley: .292-7-26-43-6, .875 OPS in 219 ABs
Competition: Jack Wilson, Adam Kennedy

The Arizona Fall League MVP, Ackley can hit, the problem is his glove. Don’t blame Ackley for that. An outfielder and first baseman in college, Ackley was shifted to second base by the Mariners. Ask scouts and they’ll tell you that he can make the routine play but that his defensive game, especially his work around the bag, needs a lot of work. They don’t question that he will get there, but the fact is he currently isn’t really anything more than, at best, an adequate defensive player.

Ackley has moderate pop, scouts think he could be 20 homer bat in the big leagues, but over his last 720 at-bats in the minors he’s managed to go deep only 14 times. He also has solid skills on the bases where he should be able to steal some bases, though again his production in that respect has been moderate (10 steals last season, six this year). What he does do well is get in base and he’s currently sporting a solid .400 OBP at Triple-A.

Chone Figgins continues to be in the teams plans at third, but he’s hitting .190 which means a guy like Ackley could really be used at the top of the Mariners’ order. The club is getting nothing from Wilson (.555 OPS in 101 ABs), and Kennedy isn’t an answer either at second base. It would appear that Ackley’s role to the majors is only blocked by his glove at this point.

Desmond Jennings: .267-8-23-37-9 with a .837 OPS in 191 ABs
Competition: Sam Fuld

The next Carl Crawford – or so he has been billed – Jennings came into 2011 as the 22nd ranked prospect according to Baseball America. Jennings undoubtedly owns elite wheels, and dreams of 40+ steals at the big league level seem like a plausible outcome one day. However, his minor league track record has been as much about starts as it has stops as he has constantly been injured.

In 2006 Jennings stole 32 bases in just 56 games.

In 2007 Jennings stole 45 bases in just 99 games.
In 2008 Jennings stole five bases in just 24 games.
In 2009 Jennings stole 52 bases in 132 games.
In 2010 Jennings stole 37 bases in just 109 games.

While the steal totals are certainly impressive, did you notice that three of the years he failed to appear in 100 games? This year he’s been healthy appearing in 50 games, but where have the steals gone (he has just nine thefts)? It doesn’t matter how fast you are if you can’t stay on the field.

In nearly 500 minor league games Jennings has hit .295 with a .382 OBP showing that he isn’t too shabby with the bat in his hands. At the same time, he’s only gone deep 37 times, though eight of those long balls have come this season.

The Rays need an infusion of speed and excitement with their club, two roles that Jennings seems ideally suited for. Unfortunately the financial situation in Tampa is such that they needed to delay Jennings arrival to the big leagues until this month so they could delay the start of his arbitration clock. B.J. Upton and Matt Joyce seem locked into the outfield, and with Johnny Damon the DH, all that stands between Jennings and significant playing time, other than the ever present pall of injury, is Sam Fuld who has hit .157 with a .434 OPS in the month of May.

By Ray Flowers

AFL Impressions

As I sit here in the airport eating a rather bland turkey sandwich, I had a few moments in which to detail a few of the more interesting tidbits that I was exposed to while in Arizona for the yearly Arizona Fall League.

The biggest disappointment of the trip was not getting a chance to see Stephen Strasburg throw a couple of innings. He was supposed to pitch in the Rising Stars Game, but he came up with some mysterious neck issue that kept him out of the contest (he should return to action before the AFL season ends). Maybe he hurt himself getting a tan at the pool.

I could work with one of the best crews in the business if you just read their work. When you get a chance to spend time with them, you realize that not only are they braniacs in the world of sports, they are great people as well. Good stuff.

Jemile Weeks is listed at 5’10″. He is lucky if he is 5’8″. Reminds me a lot of Chone Figgins with his size and approach.

I know they say Buster Posey is old enough to drink, but I swear the guy looks like he could be the kid in the Jerry Maguire movie – minus the glasses of course.

Grant Desme may have set the AFL on fire with his stretch of 10 bombs in 10 games, but he didn’t impress me at all at the dish. Gotta say as well that his arm is a mystery. On Friday he two-hopped the infielders on a couple of throws, though on Saturday night at the Stars’ game he unleashed a powerful toss to nail a runner that had me second guessing my initial impression.

Domonic Brown has got that tall lanky body that will lend itself to comparisons with a guy like Chris Young. While he may have that kind of all-around talent, he needs to add about 20 pounds to his frame while at the same time learning to keep his balance at the dish. He was all over the place with his cuts.

Tanner Scheppers brings the cheese. He has an odd set position on the mound where he starts in almost a sprinters type setup in the blocks in the 100-meter dash. No matter how he starts out, that is one electric arm.

Mike Moustakas has what was called by fellow Fanball employee Ted Carlson a “Royals’ body.” It worked out for Billy Butler, but for a guy who was drafted as a shortstop I just don’t get it. That lower half of his is straight out of the catcher’s handbook. He didn’t impress me at all.

Josh Fields doesn’t cast a large shadow with his size, but he looked pretty darn sharp attacking hitters in the contest.

Ike Davis may be a first round pick, but he has a long ways to go. He drops his hands about 12 inches as he enters the “launch position” which would seem to leave him terribly vulnerable to high heat and anything off-speed. He also has an odd throwing motion, albeit a smooth one, where he hooks his hand as he takes it back ala Barry Zito.

Dustin Ackley didn’t make much of an impression, but he clearly has the look of a big leaguer – sooner rather than later.

And finally, the future might be bright for the Reds. Chris Heisey looked sharp while Yonder Alfonso was hitting like it was an arcade game.

No telling just how many of these fellas will make their mark in the bigs, but it was nice to see the young talent that will likely be gracing ball fields in the majors for years to come.

By Ray Flowers