Dumpster Diving: Five Underrated Players in 2012

Matt Bonini shares some of his thoughts with the readers.

Anyone can make selections in rounds 1-15 in a fantasy baseball draft (pull up a top-200 player list and you can field a decent team, barring major injury or “Carl Crawford-like” campaigns). But when all the Pujols’, Jeter’s, Upton’s, and Hamels’ fly off the board, many drafters go into an indifferent, almost passive mindset. Maybe it’s the sense of unfamiliarity with the remaining names on the board, or the lack eye-popping numbers that players left in the draft tend to have. Whatever the reason may be, rounds 15 and on (or what I like to call “Garbage Time”) can be what differentiates a championship team from the Chicago Cubs….I mean… uh… an underachieving team.

Alex Cobb
Cobb comes into 2012 an unheralded prospect partly because of a bizarre season-ending rib injury, and partly because of the highly proficient Rays farm system. A prime example would be the emergence of super-prospect Matt Moore overshadowing what Cobb did during the 2011 regular season. Cobb’s 2011 cameo appearance drew many parallels to what Jeremy Hellickson and David Price did in their first respective tours for the Rays. Cobb posted a 3.42 ERA in nine starts in 2011. If you remove his last start against Oakland in which he was hampered by that rib injury (five earned runs in 4.1 innings), he would have finished with just a 2.79 ERA. Only giving up three homers through 52.2 innings of work isn’t too shabby either, which aligns pretty accurately with his HR/9 in the minors (0.7).

Bud Norris
Go grab yourself a Bud – Bud Norris. A Houston product that goes under the radar because of his team, Norris has shown signs of greatness over his short career. With a K/9 rate of 8.85 over his past two seasons, Norris finds himself among an elite group of starters in the punch-out department. The Houston offense and a less than great WHIP (1.33) will likely keep fantasy managers at bay until much later in the draft, putting a smart manager in a position grab some late round value. Normally caution is warranted with a Minute Maid pitcher but, with the number of strikeouts he gets, taking a shot seems warranted.

Jason Kipnis
Kipnis made quite a bit of noise when he smashed six home runs in ten games a week after he was called up from Triple-A Columbus (three of them coming against the Red Sox). He hit a bit of a snag after a hamstring injury sidelined him for nearly the whole month of August. Although it appeared as if he was never able to fully revive his power numbers (one home run in 18 games upon his return from injury), he was still able to consistently reach base (four multi-hit games and a near .900 OPS), establishing himself as a staple atop the Indians lineup. Kipnis also has the ability to swipe a handful of bags, making him a solid source of runs and stolen bases as well. With everyone getting on the Brett Lawrie and Dustin Ackley bandwagons, waiting to take Kipnis at a much later part of the draft could result in better value for your club.

J.D. Martinez
If there’s one person in Houston who thoroughly enjoyed the dive-bomb season Houston had it would be Martinez. After the Astros jumped ship by unloading Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn, Martinez catapulted to the bigs after posting a .342/.407/.551 line with 43 homers over 298 minor league games. If there is one thing that we can say for sure about Martinez, it’s that he has performed at every level, even though he doesn’t have a single at-bat in Triple-A. In just 208 at-bats at the major league level, he clubbed six homers and drove in an impressive 35 runs. Don’t be too bashful on the young Astros talent simply because he’ll be in the middle of the depressing Astros’ order. Look for Martinez to deliver some much needed pop to one of the worst lineups in baseball next season, giving Houston fans a small ray of hope (or is it shooting star?) for the future.

Zach Cozart
The emergence of Cozart means Cincinnati fans can kiss the Paul Janish era goodbye. Run production should be rampant in Cincinnati with the likes of Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips batting behind him (Cozart hit second in 10 of the 11 games he played with the Reds). In his 2010 Triple-A campaign, Cozart belted 17 home runs to go along with 67 RBI and 30 steals. While his .255 BA wasn’t anything to write home about, his combination of speed and power cannot be ignored. Consider his season ending elbow injury a fantasy blessing, as he will slide under the radar in most drafts because of his lack of exposure last year. At the ripe age of 26 and virtually no roadblocks in his way, expect Cozart to make an impact during the 2012 season.

By Matt Bonini

Did You Know?

I get heat all the time for putting pictures of beautiful women on my site (I even had a female follower tell me I should even things out and put a beefcake on the site. She’s obviously right, but there’s just no way I can bring myself to do it). Why do I it? Who doesn’t like to look at beautiful women? Am I right?

After that brief digression, and the shameless use of the feminine form to boost my readership, it’s time to hit on some players that are performing at levels that you may not have been aware of (hence the title of this piece).

Lance Berkman is 0-for-14 to drop his batting average to .282. In fact, the only month in which he has really impressed in the batting average category was April when he hit .388. Since then his monthly averages are .262, .221, .250 and .281. You shouldn’t be too surprised as the 35 year old Berkman hit .274 in 2009 and .248 in 2010.

Johnny Cueto leads baseball with a 2.05 ERA over 21 starts. This is shocking for numerous reasons, not the least of which being that Cueto came into the year with a 4.27 ERA over 531 innings (that mark of 4.27 was worse than the league average in that time of 4.17). Cueto is having this success despite a four year low in punchouts (6.22 per nine). Looks like all those extra grounders have been the key. In his first three seasons his ground ball rate was 39, 42 and 42 percent. This year that mark is about 25 percent up at 53.3 percent. Pretty amazing.

Ian Kinlser has 23 homers, 23 steals and 94 runs scored. With two more homers, two more steals and six more runs scored he’ll have produced just the sixth such season by a second sacker of the 21st first century of 25-25-100. It’s old hat for him. He did it back in 2009 when he hit 31 homers, stole 31 bases and scored 101 times.

James Loney is leading baseball, that’s not a typo I swear, with a .397 batting average the past 30 days (that’s .010 points clear of Derek Jeter). A monumental bust for nearly the durations of the season, Loney has come alive of late making it conceivable that he’ll reach his career norms in two categories you likely thought he had no chance of reaching. He’s hitting .277 and his career mark is .286. He also has nine homers leaving him a big month from hitting his average the past four years of 13.

Cliff Pennington (.272) is batting better than Kevin Youkilis (.266) this season. Speaking of Cliff, were you aware that he has been one of the most productive shortstops in baseball since the All-Star break? Pennington hsa hit .347, managed to plate 25 runs, and posted a .905 OPS over 41 games. I know, shocking ain’t it?

James Shields has 10 complete games this season, more than the total of the #2 and #3 men in the American League, combined. Felix Hernandez is second with five, and there is a list of six men who have recorded four complete games (Jered Weaver, Ricky Romero, Jason Vargas, Ervin Santana, Derek Holland and Justin Verlander). All told that group has 39 complete games. That means those eight men are barely halfway to the all-time record of 75 complete games held by Will White way back in 1879. For the modern record, since 1900, the eight are still well behind Jack Chesbro’s mark of 48.

Chris Young, who coincidentally I picked up in a trade about when this slump started, is hitting .148 over the last 30 days, the worst mark in baseball. It’s not like we haven’t seen him struggle before as he hit .212 in 2009 and owns a .239 mark in his career. Still, he’s one homer and one steal away from a 20/20 season, and that would be the third time in five years he has hit that plateau so I’ll cut him some slack.

By Ray Flowers

A Wacky Monday

photo © 2010 Brian Garrett | more info (via: Wylio)

There’s no rhythm or reason at all with my report today – I’m completely flying by the seat of my pants. That’s what happens when you are up late with a special lady. You just say forget it when it comes to your work and daydream about spending all your time with her.

Mitchell Boggs, the one-time closer for the Cardinals, appears likely to be demoted when the club brings Skip Schumaker back off the DL. Boggs has had a few rough spots this year no doubt, but his ratios are all still pretty darn good (3.66 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 8.69 K/9, 4.75 K/BB). Trust me, I get why the club would send Boggs to Triple-A while holding on to Ryan Franklin – he’s a vet with a ton of end of the game experience – but if this was purely a baseball decision how in the world would Franklin remain on the roster with a 9.20 ERA, 1.98 WHIP, 3.07 K/9 and 1.00 K/BB over the younger, harder throwing, and more productive Boggs? Since we’re talking about the Cardinals’ bullpen, you saw that they’ve likely found their 9th inning man after Fernando Salas had a week for the ages with four saves and a win in five appearances, right? Beat that for fantasy value in a H2H setup. Through 20.2 innings he has 20 Ks, has only issued five free passes, and is sporting a 1.87 ERA. If you grabbed him off waivers you might have hit the jackpot after a month of trying to read the tea leaves in St. Louis.

Kevin Gregg has a loss, two blown saves and an ERA of nearly 8.50 over his last six outings. Meanwhile, Koji Uehara continues to hum along with vastly superior numbers including a 2.70 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 10.35 K/9 and a 4.60 K/BB ratio. Honestly, it’s pretty shocking that the Orioles haven’t made the move to Koji. Perhaps they just aren’t convinced that he can pitch on back-to-back days, but at this point I’m finding it nearly impossible to work up an argument that would favor Gregg working the ninth over Uehara.

Adam LaRoche is likely to be placed on the DL because of his injured shoulder. He can’t drive the ball a lick, his current SLG is .258, and he just isn’t right. If the club follows through with their plan that would put Mike Morse back into a prominent role since he would likely see most of the starts at first. Morse was everyone’s darling after a massive spring, but he failed to capitalize on his chance early in the year. He’s still only gone deep twice and scored five runs, horrible marks, but he does have 12 hits in his last 30 at-bats (.400) so he might be worth an add as a corner infield option for those of you looking for a bat.

Joe Mauer hopes to return to play in an extended spring training game on Tuesday. He’ll likely play in a few of those games before heading out on a minor league rehab assignment. There is no set date for a return, but 10-14 days seems reasonable at this point. We all knew he would be out two months, right? In case you forgot he was last seen on a big league diamond on April 12th.

Jered Weaver was 6-0 with a 0.99 ERA in April. May has completely flipped his performance on its ear as he is 0-4 with a 5.25 ERA. Here is a wonderful diddy from Elias. Weaver is the first pitcher since 1884 to win his first six decisions and then lose his next four. The last guy to do it was Jumbo McGinnis for the St. Louis Browns of the American Association. In case you were wondering, Jumbo posted a 2.95 ERA on his way to winning 102 games in his career.

Finally, if you’re sending in any questions, let me know which superhero movie you are mostly looking forward to this year:

Captain America
Green Lantern
Thor
X-Men: First Class

Around the Horn: April7, 2011

(1) Lastings Milledge released by the White Sox. Will he ever reach his potential?

(2) Edinson Volquez struggling to find the strike zone – again.

(3) Logan Morrison has a bright future, but what is his value this season?

(4) Michael Bourn tweaks groin. Does that mean he’ll stop running?

(5) Yunel Escobar has head injury. Hopefully it’s minor after his hot start.

(6) Vlad Guerrero – he can still hit despite his slow start.

By Ray Flowers

My Life in Fantasy Sports

Photo by Nenyaki

I’m changing this up today. After spending weeks profiling players and putting together top-whatever lists (you can find all the FREE data  for the 2011 draft season in the Player Capsule section), I’m going to leave the field of analysis and tell a personal story. I’ve received a couple of emails the past few weeks about how one gets involved, professionally, in the world of fantasy sports. In what follows I’ll give a brief outline of my journey so you can see how one person did it.

At one point I was in graduate school (yes, you can be educated and still work in the field of fantasy sports). While I was getting started on my thesis I thought it would also be fun to do something a little “lighter” that didn’t require copious hours of research for 500 words of writing. I’d always loved baseball having played it my whole life and havin coached high school frosh-soph baseball for a year, so I contacted a few companies to see if they would let me write for them. No dice. In fact, I believe it took eight tries until I found a site that was willing to let a no-name write for them – for free mind you. Drafthelp.com and Rick Morris gave me that shot, and that’s when things started cooking. As best as I can remember…

I worked for about six months without making a dollar.

I was then offered $500 (if my memory is correct) to keep doing what I was doing (basically an article a week and some podcast work).

I picked up another gig writing for Athomeplate.com – again, an article a week type of thing.

About six months later I was making a whopping “grand” a year. That’s when things started to take off.

Ryan Houston, who I’m eternally grateful to (no one is more responsible for my success in this industry than he is), offered me a part-time gig to help out FantasyBaseball.com with their baseball product. I did that for a while when an opportunity presented itself. The company also owned Fantasyhockey.com, but they weren’t doing anything with it. Taking the initiative, I told the powers that be that I would put a staff together and work with the developer to get the hockey site up and running. They were so pleased with how that effort went that they came to me an offered me a full-time job to work for them (I basically forced their hand with my dedication and effort – and my modesty was of course another selling point). Having just completed my master’s degree I had a choice – continue on with my schooling and head down the road of PhD studies or stay in fantasy sports. You know which option I took.

I worked for a couple of years with Fantasy Planet, and it was rewarding and brutal at the same time. I remember distinctly one period of time where I, literally, worked 12 or more hours for 14 straight says (we were putting out our first baseball magazine). If I remember correctly, I think I left my house five times in those two weeks; three times to go to the grocery store, once to get gas, and once to get out of the house for dinner. Hey, it’s what needed to be done to get ahead. The hours were oppressive, the pay mediocre, but the results were worth the effort.

Moving on from there I followed Ryan Houston to Daily Racing Form. Originating in 1894, DRF was a company that had tentacles everywhere, so no, I didn’t cover horse racing. I actually wrote for two of their other periodicals – College and Pro Football News Weekly and The Sportsform – while at the same time functioning as the Managing Editor of FantasyFootballChamps (I also did a guest spot with Sports Grumblings and Head2Head Sports for a short while). Again, another stepping stone with new opportunities presented and learned. On the downside, it literally took 12 weeks for me to get my first paycheck necessitating a lot of Top Ramen and spaghetti dinners. That’s when Fanball.com came a calling.

Again, stop me if you heard this before, I followed Mr. Houston to Fanball and for the next three years we all experienced a ton of success. Our magazines were often voted the best in the business, I think we printed 11 of them in 2010, and our reach was extensive. We partnered with the NFBC and the NFFC in the live event arena, and Kyle Elfrink and I started doing a daily podcast on Blog Talk Radio. That experience, plus the diligent work of Mr. Houston, led to my current opportunity as co-host, along with Kyle and Kay Adams, of The Fantasy Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (the show is on Sirius 210, XM 87). And of course, there is my five year relationship with Sports Illustrated that continues to this day (one weekly piece on hockey and baseball).

So let me sum up the often circuitous journey and the steps/sacrifices that need to be made.

(1) You have to put yourself in a position to succeed. Sometimes that means you have to take out the garbage and wash the dishes. At the same time, every experience is invaluable. Learn all you can while you are where you are. All the experiences will help you.

(2) If someone offers you a job in this industry, and they are willing to pay you, take it. You might only be making $4 an hour if you work out the numbers, but the fact of the matter is that paying gigs just aren’t easy to get, especially with the proliferation of social media and the soapbox every moron in the world can now climb upon to spout off nonsense.

(3) Realize you’ll never get rich doing this. You had better be in it for the love of the love of the game or you’ll never last.

(4) Understand that you’ll have to work a ton of hours, I’m talking 65+ a week easy, if you ever want to “make it.” That means there will be times that you won’t be able to see your friends for dinner and there might be birthday celebrations that you’ll have to miss (good luck working things out with your significant other unless they are totally understanding). Vacations? You can pretty much forget about them unless you are talking about a quick 2-day jaunt somewhere.

(5) You really need to have a working knowledge of more than one sport. With the way the industry is moving there just aren’t that many full-time people who cover only one sport. The best way to make yourself a valuable commodity is to be able to navigate at least two sports – and it would help a ton if one of those sports was football.

So there it is, a quick outline of how I got to where I am. Hard work, some talent, and a little luck were all key. As I’ve always been told by my parents – if you put your whole being behind something you’ll never fail. So far I’ve yet to prove them wrong.

By Ray Flowers

Vegas Baby, and the FSTA

I was in Vegas for a couple of days in order to attend the Fantasy Sports Trade Association event. While there we did a couple of our radio shows for Sirius/XM Fantasy Sports Radio (we can be heard daily from 5-8 PM EDT), and of course we mixed in some fun including random dancing, a few cocktails (maybe more appropriately a slew of them), and some general merriment. Between all of that I was able to participate in the annual FSTA Mixed League Draft which we were able to hold on air in its entirety (to listen to it again, or for the first time, tune in to Sirius147/XM211 Radio at the following times: Friday at 5pm and 11 PM Eastern, and Saturday and Sunday at 3PM and 11PM Eastern). As for the draft results, you can follow the link to The Sirius/XM FSTA Draft for all the picks taken in the 13 team, 29 round draft. Here is a review of the team that I was able to put together, with the help of the beautiful Kay Adams.

C: Carlos Ruiz, Yadier Molina
1B: Prince Fielder
2B: Brandon Phillips, Aaron Hill
3B: Aramis Ramirez, Jhonny Peralta
SS: Jimmy Rollins, Jason Bartlett
OF: Carl Crawford, Andrew McCutchen, Carlos Lee, Denard Span, Nate McLouth, Cameron Maybin, Roger Bernadina

SP: Yovanni Gallardo, Dan Haren, Jonathan Sanchez, Wandy Rodriguez, James Shields, Scott Baker, Carlos Zambrano

RP: Joakim Soria, Ryan Madson, Brandon League, Rich Harden, Kyle Farnsworth, Jake McGee

Here are some of my thoughts on the draft.

* I was very pleased to see Carl Crawford fall to us at #7 overall. There seemed to be about a 50/50 split between people at the conference over taking Crawford or Troy Tulowitzki in that spot.

* Some people questioned Rollins in the 3rd round, though I don’t see why there would be any doubt about him at that spot. I have him as the #3 shortstop on the board this year (see: Top-10 Shortstops for 2011).

* Overall I love the talent of of this club. Some have said the team might be short on power, and while I can’t say we have any chance to lead the league in homers, I think our hitting should be highly productive. In taking a general overview I think we have a shot at having four guys who could at least go 15/15 (Crawford, Rollins, McCutchen, Phillips), and that is some serious talent that doesn’t even include two others who could go 15/15 (Maybin and Bernadina) as well as another guy who has already done that before (McLouth). We were one pick from nabbing Ryan Howard in the third round to be our corner infield option or that power talk would have been completely removed (we ended up with Rollins).

* This draft just goes to show you that you don’t have to reach on catching. While neither of my guys will win the league for me, Ruiz (16th round) and Molina (17th) give me two of the more stable options in the game. In leagues that start two catchers knowing that you have two guys who should hit .280 with 50 RBI is a nice feeling.

* Things turned out pretty well with the starting pitchers. I waited a bit to take a starter, though with all of them flying off the board I did go earlier than I normally do with Gallardo in the 6th round. I then grabbed the ultra consistent Haren in the 8th meaning that through 10 rounds I had rostered: 1 1B, 2 2B (one for MI), 1 SS, 1 3B, 2 OF, 2 SP, 1 RP.

* As for relievers, that unit is short on saves as we sit here today. With the draft being done so early, it is January after all, there is just no way to know how certain situations are going to pan out. Therefore I did something I hardly ever do, and that is go for a closer within the first 10 picks. I took Joakim Soria in the 9th round knowing that he was one of about 15 guys that seemed to have the 9th locked down for his team. Given that he is a top-5 option in my mind, it was an easy call to take him in that spot. I grabbed League who could open the year as “the man” with David Aardsma coming back from injury for the Mainers, an truthfully I think he’s a better pitcher than Aardsma (remember the Mariners had been looking to move David prior to the injury). Ryan Madson is an injury to Brad Lidge away from the 9th, and he is the better pitcher at this point if you gauge each man in a head-to-head manner. Remember, roster skills over roll in the pen and nine times out of 10 you will come out ahead. And in my nod to fantasy football, I handcuffed my Rays’ relievers to one another taking the young guy (McGee) and the old one (Farnsworth). Hopefully one of them pans out and locks down the role.

This is a solid squad and one that should allow me to remain competitive this season, provided that (a) my players stay healthy, and (b) if my “I was down in 2010 but I’m really a better player than that” plan comes to fruition in 2011. You did pick up that strategy I employed right? Take a look at the guys who had down seasons last year that I think are primed for a strong comeback in 2011: Ramirez, Hill, Lee, Span, Shields, McLouth, Bartlett. Hopefully I didn’t out think myself.

Now, where is my waitress with those fruity drinks…

By Ray Flowers

Two All-Time Greats?

In today’s article I will discuss two of the best performers that the game has seen over the last 20 years. One could potentially be hanging up his spikes while the other is hoping to have his name called out in a couple of days when the Hall of Fame voting results are announced.

The Yankees Are in Trouble

Reports continue to trickle out that Andy Pettitte is legitimately leaning toward retirement (an announcement could even come within the next few days). This isn’t a salary push or anything like that, it’s simply a decision that Pettitte needs to make for himself and his family as he has apparently grown a bit weary of the toll the game has taken on his body. Here are the facts.

(1) He doesn’t need the money having made more than $125 million in his career.

(2) His place in history is secure. Pettitte has been one of the finest postseason pitchers of modern times, just take a look at the numbers: 19-10, 3.83 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 173 Ks over 263 innings pitched. As for his regular season work, he’s also been one of the best left-handed pitchers of recent times. Not just that, he profiles quite well amongst all lefties who have ever pitched as his total of 240 victories is tied for 12th all time with Herb Pennock and Frank Tanana. Pettitte also has a winning percentage of .635 in his career which is the 9th best mark of any left-handed pitcher in the history of baseball (min. 1,500 innings pitched).

(3) He was darn good last season, even at 38 years of age, as he went 11-3 with a 3.28 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. Unfortunately he was limited to 129 innings, his lowest total of his 16 season career other than his injury plagued 2004 season. Given the struggles to stay healthy last season, it just sounds like Pettitte has had enough.

(4) If he doesn’t come back, as seems quite likely at this point, the Yankees are in big, big trouble. Here would be their projected rotation, sans Pettitte, if the season started today.

CC Sabathia: A worthy #1.

A.J. Burnett: Coming off his worst season (5.26 ERA, 1.51 WHIP).

Phil Hughes: Won 18 games but had a 4.90 ERA after the break and has only one season of starting in
bigs.

Ivan Nova: He’s appeared in all of 10 big league games.

Sergio Mitre: Made only three starts last season and owns terrible career ratios (5.27 ERA, 1.50 WHIP).

If you are a Yankees’ fan it’s time to pray to whomever you pray to because you desperately need Andy Pettitte to put off retirement for another year.

The Historical Place of the DH

Almost a year ago to the day I wrote a piece about Edgar Martinez and his Hall of Fame candidacy entitled Is There Room for a DH? In that piece I laid out my thoughts about the case of a man who was a Hall of Fame worthy performer, save for two significant points. (1) Martinez wasn’t given a full-time role with the Mariners until he was 27 years old, so some of his counting numbers just aren’t that impressive when placed in a historical context (he had only 309 homers, one less than Jay Buhner and 1,261 RBI, 10 less than Tino Martinez). (2) No full-time designated hitter has ever been elected to the Hall of Fame (Martinez played the field in less than 30 percent of his career games). Both points, on their own, could be enough to keep Edgar from ever being enshrined in the halls of Cooperstown.

At the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account today there was some back and forth about the fact that Martinez deserved to be in the Hall of Fame. After all, DH is a position, to which I argued it’s a one way position. Martinez was a hitter, but would anyone call him a player? In my mind that means he will have a very difficult time convincing the voting body that he deserves baseball’s ultimate honor. Conversely, it can be argued that pitchers only do one thing – pitch – and no one has any complaints about hurlers making the Hall so perhaps people will be willing to overlook the fact that Martinez played most of his career without even owning a glove. In the end I wish that baseball would do the right thing and eliminate the whole debate by returning the game to its roots by riding itself of the abomination that is the designated hitter.

And finally, are you as pumped as I am about the upcoming 2011 fantasy baseball season? In order to help you kick off your quest to be a champion in ’11, we at Fanball have set out to provide you with all the tools that you need to accomplish your goal. Read more about how to start your journey in Your Fantasy Baseball Resolution where you will find links to staff rankings, projections, live advice and DraftPractice.com where you can mock away for FREE.

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: Still Simmering

The pull of Christmas continues to strengthen with each passing day as it becomes harder and harder to actually focus on your tasks at work (don’t tell me you don’t feel it’s pull). That doesn’t mean that the world of baseball is off for the holidays. In fact, it’s just the opposite as there are quite a few pertinent news stories making the rounds on this day.

Adrian Beltre: Backed by the evil Scott Boras, Beltre is apparently turning his nose up slightly at the 5-year, $70 million deal the Angels have extended the third baseman. Why? Because he’d like a sixth year of course. Beltre is a consistent run producer who also plays fine defense, but he isn’t a .300 hitting 30 homer guy, so he should be plenty happy with what the Angels are offering, especially since there doesn’t appear to be another team willing to offer that much money. Beltre would also be wise to realize that he will 37 years old at the end of a five year deal, so I don’t know how many organizations are going to be clamoring to give him a sixth season when he will be 38 years old. The Angels are pretty desperate to add him after losing Hideki Matsui to free agency and losing out on guys like Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford, but let’s hope they do the smart thing and hold fast on their current offer which is, in my opinion, too high already.

LATE ADDITION: Seems like the Angels came to the same conclusion that I did. With the ink barely dry on this article, a report surfaced in the Los Angeles Times that the Angels have withdrawn their offer to Beltre (Angels Pull Offer). Seems like they called Scott Boras’ bluff and have flat out dared him to find another team willing to give his client $70 million. Who will blink first?

David Freese: A total wild card this season since he is coming off surgeries to both ankles. Freese is said to be progressing well, but he still hasn’t even been cleared to run yet. He has hit .299 in 271 big league at-bats, but at this point he should be restricted to merely being a late round flier in NL-only leagues.

Brett Gardner: The fleet of foot outfielder had offseason surgery on his wrist, and like Freese, everything is heading in the right direction with his recovery and Gardner expects to be 100 percent by Spring Training. (Brett said he was only a couple of weeks behind his “normal” offseason workout schedule). While somewhat overlooked because of the juggernaut around him, Gardner had a hell of a fantasy season last year which included being one of just three players in baseball who stole 45 bases, knocked in 45 runs, and scored at least 95 times (the others were Juan Pierre and Carl Crawford). Depending on what region of the country you live in, Gardner might be a relative bargain on draft day, especially if he was able to secure a spot at the top of the Yankees’ lineup.

Scott Podsednik: The Angels missed out on their top offseason target when Carl Crawford signed with the Red Sox. So their reaction is to try and sign Scott Podsednik? Pods can still motor, he had 35 steals last season while hitting .297, but come on now. He’s 35 years old and he shouldn’t be anything more than a fourth outfield option on an upper division club. He’s really nothing more than a replacement level player at this point of his career, even with the gaudy steal total. That doesn’t mean he has no fantasy value, the guy does have 65 thefts the past two years while hitting .300, and he could score a bunch of runs if he was signed by the Angels and inserted at the top of their run and gun batting order. All I’m saying is that he really isn’t that valuable a real world player.

David Price: I had a debate at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account this week about why I wouldn’t have David Price ranked in my top-10 starting pitchers this season. To me the answer is simple – he doesn’t belong there. I know he was second in the AL in wins (19) and third in ERA (2.72), but his peripheral numbers simply don’t support that level of performance. (1) His walk rate of 3.41 per nine was worse than the big league average (3.28). He did offset that fact a bit with his solid 8.11 K/9 mark, but his resulting 2.38 K/BB ratio is only barely better than the 2010 big league average of 2.17. (2) Price posted a 1.10 GB/FB ratio which was, again, big league average. It also wasn’t any different from his 1.05 mark of 2009 when he posted a 4.42 ERA. (3) Price had a left on base percentage of 78.5 percent in ’10. Given that the big league average is 70 percent, that’s a pretty darn high total (to compare Price with another great lefty, Cliff Lee’s mark was 67.9 percent). It’s almost impossible to posit another run at 80 percent from Price. (4) His ERA was lucky. There, I said it. Price’s FIP mark was 3.42, well above his raw ERA mark of 2.72. In addition, his DIPS ERA was 3.55 while his Component ERA was 2.92. You don’t have to know how those numbers are computed to understand that all three of those measures point to his actual ERA of 2.72 being far too low based on his overall level of performance. Price will not fail, he is too talented for that, and his one batter improvement in his K/9 rate last season is exciting, but I would be pretty shocked if he was able to once again keep his ERA under 3.00 this season, and few pitchers win 19 games in back-to-back seasons (Adam Wainwright and CC Sabathia are the only two hurlers that have done it the past two years).

Brandon Webb: The injured righty continues to receive lots of love from teams around the league that are hoping to strike it rich with the former ace. Teams that appears to be heavily in on Webb include the Cubs, Nationals and Rangers, though at one point or another he has been linked to about half the teams in baseball. I know he was a star from 2005-08, but the guy had major shoulder surgery, looked terrible late in the year according to some scouting reports, and he has thrown all of four innings the past two seasons. Hopefully everyone learned from the Ben Sheets debacle of last season (1-year, $10 million for 20 starts) that Webb’s contract should be something like 90 percent incentive driven.

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: Signings Galore

Its been another wild and wooly day in the world of baseball as a whole handful of fantasy relevant players have decided where they will play in 2011.

Edwin Encarnacion: Well look at that. After casting EE adrift because they didn’t want to overpay him (he was picked up off waivers by the Athletics who subsequently decided not to offer him a contract as he was non-tendered), the Blue Jays brought Encarnacion back into the fold. Paid $4.75 million last season, Encarnacion signed a one year deal for $2.5 million with a club option of $3.5 million for 2012. You might not be aware, but Edwin hit 21 homers last season which is more than Scott Rolen (20), Kevin Youkilis (19), Casey Blake (17) and Kevin Kouzmanoff (16) despite the fact that he had just 332 at-bats. A poor third basemen, it appears that the current plan is for Edwin to see some time at third, first and DH this season, potentially splitting time with Adam Lind at 1B/DH. For more of the Encarnacion love fest make sure you read Jason Collette’s Free Agent Forecast: E5 where he expounds about his unhealthy man-crush on the free swinging infielder (it’s kind of creepy how much Jason digs Edwin… I’m just saying Jason).

Bobby Jenks: Buster Olney is reporting that the Red Sox and former White Sox closer Bobby Jenks have agreed to a 2-year deal for $12 million. This signing is a bit odd since the Red Sox already have young flame thrower Daniel Bard, not to mention closer Jonathan Papelbon. It’s pure speculation at this point, but why would the BoSox bother to bring in Jenks to pitch the 7th inning? The point is, they wouldn’t. This leads to the obvious – perhaps the Red Sox are going to rid themselves of Papelbon. Problem is, Jonathan is coming off his worst season since becoming the closer, and he will likely make upwards of $11 million or more through arbitration. Who wants to take on a slumping closer who will make more than $11 million, especially when he will become a free agent after the 2011 season (for more on Papelbon see Around the Horn: Offseason Moves)? Good question. As for Jenks, he is coming off a career worst 4.44 ERA and a five year low of 27 saves, but he actually pitched very, very well. In addition to a five year best with a K/9 rate of 10.42, Jenks also managed the best GB/FB ratio of his career at a superb 2.80. If he combines those two numbers again in 2011, his ERA should fall by at least a run if not back into the 2′s.

Russell Martin: I wrote about Martin’s decision to sign a one year deal with the Yankees in Hot Stove: Lee Isn’t Only Newsmaker. Now comes word that during his physical it was determined that he will need minor knee surgery. The Yankees still signed him to the contract with this knowledge, so you have to think the issue is relatively minor, but it can’t make you feel good about Martin’s 2011 outlook given that he is coming off of two mediocre seasons (at best) and a fractured hip. He’s dropping down my draft list.

Magglio Ordonez: Jon Heyman is reporting that Mags will return to the Tigers on a 1-year deal for a rather large $10 million. The Tigers likely had to overpay a bit since they only wanted to do a one year deal with a guy coming back from ankle surgery. Ordonez has been working out and is said to already be close to 100 percent healthy. For more on Ordonez and his prospects for the upcoming season check out Around the Horn: Offseason Moves.

Josh Willingham: Buster Olney is reporting that Willingham will be dealt to the Athletics in exchange for two players (one who has major league experience). I have to hand it to the A’s, they are doing some nice things. Not only have they added two arms to what was potentially the best staff in the AL last year with Rich Harden and Brandon McCarthy, they have also augmented the offense by adding Hidkei Matsui, David DeJesus and now Willingham (you can read more about the addition of Harden in Hot Stove: Pitchers Dominate the News and more about Matsui in the link above in the Martin writeup). Willingham missed the end of 2010 because of knee surgery, and he will be a free agent after the coming campaign, but the guy can hit. Over the past five years Josh has averaged 20 homers and 66 RBI a season despite an average of just 434 at-bats a year. It is a concern that Oakland’s home park doesn’t reward power hitters, and that Willingham hasn’t had even 430 at-bats in any of the last three seasons, but he does add some needed thump to a lineup whose biggest home run hitter in 2010 was Kevin Kouzmanoff with 16.

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: Lee Isn't Only Newsmaker

All anyone will be talking about today is the Cliff Lee signing, and while I too will lead off with his improbable deal with the Phillies, there are some other moves that are worthy of at least throwing a paragraph at.

Cliff Lee: Ted Carlson already covered the Phillies swopping in a and nabbing the top pitcher on the market out from under the Yankees and Rangers in Phil-Lee Surprise. Here is my favorite line from the piece. “That’s the best quartet that Philly has seen since Boyz II Men.” Classic. Debate will rage about if this is the best foursome of pitchers since the Braves’ in the 1990, the Orioles in the early 70′s or the Indians in 50′s, but let’s just say Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt is a flat out amazing group of arms. As pointed out by ESPN’s Jayson Stark, the top-4 now sports the 2010 major league leader in Wins Above Replacement (Lee), the NL leader in WHIP (Oswalt at 1.03), the NL Cy Young winner (Halladay), and the best left-handed pitcher in the Senior Circuit after 7/1 (Hamels posted a 2.28 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 9.4 K/9 and a 4.24 K/BB mark over his final 118.1 IP). As was also pointed out by @ggiants on Twitter, the World Series Champion San Francisco Giants beat all four of those pitchers in the 2010 playoffs, so don’t go coronating the Phillies as the 2011 champs just yet.

Adam LaRoche/Derrek Lee: It would appear that the Nationals, Orioles and D’backs all need a starting first baseman, and these two are obviously the top-2 options on the free agent market. Both hitters bring solid bats and can be expected to hit 20 homers with at least 80 RBI, and while that isn’t overly exciting by any means, there is nary a team in the game that wouldn’t take that kind of production if the price was right. Lee is likely to command bigger dollars even though he is coming off a slightly depressed season (.260-19-80) and despite the fact that he is four years old at 35. Either one would be a nice pickup at this point with all the big names flying off the free agent board, and neither is going to be poor with teams throwing around money like a drunken frat boy at a gentleman’s club.

Russell Martin: It appears a near certainty that Martin will join the Yankees which sends the wheels moving (he’ll need to pass a physical to make it official). (1) Martin will sign a one year deal with the club, though it’s really a 2-year deal since Martin will be arbitration eligible for the 2012 season, so the Yankees can choose to keep him for one more season if they so desire. (2) It appears that despite coming back off hip surgery, the Yankees are confident that Martin will be able to catch the majority of the time. (3) His signing means that Jesus Montero will likely get some more time to work on his glove in the minors. The dude is ready to hit big league pitching, but many “in the know” worry if he will ever be able to handle the rigors of catching everyday in the big leagues. (4) The real question at this point is what does Martin have left? The hip issue is a huge concern in it’s own right given that a catcher sometimes has to squat and all, but as concerning is the lack of any type of production from his bat. From 2006-08 Martin’s average season was .285-14-74-80-16 as he was a fantasy darling. Since then he has produced an average yearly outing of .249-6-40-54-9, which hardly the stuff of legend. Hitting in a loaded lineup in New York, in a great hitter’s park will help, but I would like his outlook a lot better if he wasn’t being counted on to catch four or five days a week. Don’t be swayed by the love of all things Yankees when considering Martin on draft day, 2011.

Hideki Matsui: The Athletics will announce that they have signed Hideki Matsui after he completes his physical (reports are the deal will be for about $4.25 million for one year). It would appear that Godzilla will be asked to take over as the primary DH in Oakland now that Jack Cust has signed with the Mariners (you can read about that move in Hot Stove: December 8, 2010). Matsui finished 2010 well, and that is putting it mildly, as he batted .309 with 11 homers and 37 RBI, not to mention a .955 OPS, over his last 60 games. The end result was a .274-21-84 line that gave at least those three numbers in each of his last five seasons of 450 at-bats (he hit “only” 16 homers in 2003 when he batted .287 with 106 RBI). Oakland isn’t a great place to hit, and it’s not like their lineup is overflowing with talent, but with Matsui you know what you are going to get.

By Ray Flowers