The Other Deal

Earlier today I broke down the big deal of the day as the Yankees picked up Javier Vazquez in exchange for Melky Cabrera and a couple of prospects (you can read all about the deal at Breaking Down: Javier Vazquez). Here, I’ll break down “the other deal” dealing with two potentially dominating righties.

Note: You can also read Paul Bruno’s take on the deal at JaysFan.com.

THE DEAL

Mariners receive: RHP Brandon League and minor leaguer (either OF Yohermyn Chavez or C Brian Jeroloman)
Blue Jays receive: Brandon Morrow.

Mariners Haul

We don’t know yet which minor leaguer will be included with Brandon League. Neither option is a top flight, sure fire star at the big league level, but most pundits seem to favor Chavez even though he isn’t amongst the top-10 prospects in the Blues organization (Jeroloman can pick it behind the dish, but his bat is sorely lacking).

League throws a heavy, and I mean power-sinking fastball that has averaged 95.5 mph during his big league career. When you combine that heat with the darting, downward action, it’s hardly a surprise that League has held batters to a .258 batting average in his career (the surprise is that the number is that high). A potentially dominating strikeout arm – he had 76 punchouts in just 74.2 innings last season – League is much, much better than the 3-6 record with a 4.58 ERA that he posted last season. The biggest plus on his side is that he has brought his walk rate down two years running, and last years 2.53 BB/9 mark allowed him to post a strong 3.62 K/BB ratio given his strikeout abilities. And that is just it. If League throws strikes and avoids the walk he could potentially dominate. Don’t forget that this man owns a 3.13 GB/FB ratio in his career, and when you strike out a batter per inning and have a GB/FB mark better than three, well, they usually end up putting your face on the cover of a video game.

Blue Jays Haul

Brandon Morrow was drafted 5th overall out of the University of California at Berkley in 2006. Standing 6′3″ and weighing about 200 lbs, Morrow has one of those arms that scouts simply fall all over themselves to sign. The owner of a 95 mph fastball, batters have little chance to hit him when he is “on,” a fact reflected in his .223 BAA mark through 197.2 career innings. In that time Morrow has posted a solid 3.96 ERA and more than a strikeout per inning with 204, so why would the Mariners consider trading this 25 year old who most scouts think will either be a #2 or #3 starter? The Mariners must have grown tired of his inability to throw strikes. In his brief career, remember batters hit just .223 against him and he owns a 9.29 K/9 mark, Morrow has handed out free passes like Santa gives out hope during the Christmas season. Morrow posted a 5.68 BB/9 mark last season in 69.2 innings and that was an improvement over his career mark of 5.83.

It should also be pointed out that he has spent time as a starter and reliever (the Mariners yanked him around the past two years which certainly hasn’t helped his development). Here are his numbers in both roles.

Reliever: 3.65 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 10.12 K/9, .217 BAA in 118.1 IP
Starter: 4.42 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 8.05 K/9, .232 BAA in 79.1 IP

The numbers regress a bit when he has starts, hardly a shock given the 100 percent all the time attitude hurlers can take when working only an inning out of the bullpen.

MOVING FORWARD

As nice a power arm as League has, and let’s face the Mariners are certainly wise to be hedging their bets with David Aardsma who had a lot of ninth inning success last year despite some rather odd totals in his pitching line (like a sky-high fly ball rate but a miniscule HR/F mark), I just don’t understand this deal at all. Morrow certainly needs to figure out a way to harness his stuff, but if he does this young man is a potential all-star. Not that he will ever amount to anything remotely like guys such as Randy Johnson, Nolan Ryan and Sandy Koufax, but the history of the game is littered with plenty of hard throwers who took a few years to get their barrings (it’s also why a guy like Oliver Perez is making $12 million a year). If Aardsma implodes and League goes on to save 30 games than no one will likely be too upset, but if Morrow locates his control and rips off a bunch of 15 victory, 200 K seasons this is going to look like one awful move. You gotta love what the Blue Jays are doing this off-season as their new front office group clearly is bringing in boatloads of talent to vie for major league jobs.

By Ray Flowers

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Moving Money: Bradley for Silva

Peanut butter and jelly. Ham an eggs. Eggnog and rum.

All of those thing go together almost as well as a deal in baseball where teams swap a couple of players with big-time salaries around their necks. Just such a deal was worked out on Friday as the Mariners sent their deadweight – Carlos Silva – to the Cubs in exchange for volatile outfielder Milton Bradley. I never thought I would write the following sentence, but here it is – I love the Milton Bradley portion of this deal. I know, shocking huh? Let’s break down each guy.

MILTON BRADLEY
The Contract: Bradley has 2-years and $21 million left on his contract. The Mariners will be Bradley’s eighth team.

The Quote: “Obviously, in this case, it did not work out how we planned, which was also the reason I sent Milton home,” Cubs’ GM Jim Hendry said. “(That’s) not going to be tolerated, to treat our fans, teammates and members of the media the way he did.”

The Numbers: I’ve written these facts time after time, but here they are again. Despite all his skills, Bradley has:

* One 20-HR season (22 in 2008).
* One 70-RBI season (77 in 2008).
* One 75-run season (78 in 2008).
* One season of more than 415 ABs – one (516 in 2004).

Doesn’t matter how talented you are skill wise if you can’t stay on the field long enough to flash those skills. To further illustrate this fact, here is a look at his pace, per 162 games, in his career:

.277-20-76-86-13

That is certainly a fine season, but it’s no better than the kind of work the world witnessed from Mark DeRosa last year (.250-23-78-78-3) and no one was overly excited by that performance were they?

The Fit: The Mariners could certainly use a middle of the order presence as they have yet to bring back Russell Branyan or sign a big bat like Jason Bay, so the addition of Bradley is a good one. Still, if the Mariners are expecting on Bradley making it out onto the field more than 120 times in 2010 they are deluding themselves.

CARLOS SILVA
The contract: Silva has 2-years and $25 million left on his contract. The Mariners will send $9 million to the Cubs to help cover the cost of this contract.

The Numbers: Three times Silva has won at least 11 games, and in 2005 he posted a 3.44 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. Alas, things haven’t gone well, at all, since that point. In 2006, Silva went 11-15 with a 5.94 ERA, he followed that up with a 13-14 mark with a 4.19 ERA in ‘07, and then things really got ugly. Silva, in his first year in Seattle, tossed 153.1 innings, won four games against 15 loses, and posted a 6.46 ERA. Things got even worse in 2009 as injuries limited him to 30.1 innings and a 8.60 ERA. Think of it this way. Over his last 34 starts, a full season of work for a top of the rotation arm, Silva has gone 5-18 with a 6.81 ERA, 1.62 WHIP and a 1.84 K/BB rate. If you posted numbers like that in high school you’d be on the bench, but in the world of major league baseball you make millions for it.

The Fit: Terrible. Silva first has to prove he is healthy, and even if he does that the fact is that he simply isn’t anything better than an average major league pitcher – at best. With an inability to strike anyone out (3.78 K/9 in his career), and a HR/9 rate of 1.13 (far too high for a guy who will try to pitch in the Windy City), this doesn’t look like a good fit at all.

THE VERDICT

Again, no matter how much I dislike Bradley and his tired, worn out act, there is only one player here who could be an All-Star in 2010. Furthermore, there is only one player here who appears to even have a chance to be better than replacement level. I know the Cubs wanted to rid themselves of the headache that is Bradley, but they really, and I mean really, took a huge chance here in trading the talented Bradley for a guy who hasn’t resembled a big league pitcher since 2007, and even that is being kind.

By Ray Flowers

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Winter Meetings Update

I love the Winter Meetings. In fact, I’ve combined the event with Twitter to form a duo kind of like peanut butter and jelly. I admit it. I’m addicted now. I wake up in the middle of the night thinking ‘I’m sure the readers would love to hear that thought.’ Don’t worry, I keep a pad by my bed to write down the thoughts that hit me when most of the U.S. is counting candy canes in their sleep.

* Still reeling over the Three-team Blockbuster Deal between the Tigers, Yankees and D’backs? You can read my breakdown of the deal by clicking on the link, but there is still something I don’t get – why did the D’backs enter this deal as the third team? I think they will rue the day that they let Max Scherzer go for Edwin Jackson. Maybe I’m wrong here, but honestly, I have a hard time believing that. Whether Scherzer is a top of the rotation arm, or a closer (a potential given his somewhat violent delivery), as long as his arm doesn’t fly off I see this kid being something special.

* John Lackey is regarded by all as the top free agent hurler on the market. However, it doesn’t seem likely that anyone is going to fall all over themselves to throw $100 million his way. In fact, he might have to wait a bit and hope someone gets a bit desperate to hit that figure.

* I wrote yesterday how I thought it was a ruse that Rafael Soriano would accept the Braves arbitration offer in What a Great Monday. Turns out I’ve got that proverbial egg on my face as he did just that. As a result, the Braves are facing the prospect of having to trade Soriano or spend roughly a fifth of their entire payroll on Soriano, Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito. Soriano has already submitted a group of teams he would like to join with one possible destination being the Orioles who have already mentioned their intention to acquire a closer.

Have heard barely a peep dealing with Matt Holliday. The other big bopper, Jason Bay, appears to be on the short list for teams such as the Red Sox, Mariners and Angels, the club from Anaheim emerging in the last 24 hours as a potentially serious player.

I’m still completely blown away by the Cardinals give Brad Penny $7.5 million with incentives that could take the deal to $9 million. My question is a simple one – why?

If Ivan Rodriguez can get a 2-year deal for $6 million from the Nationals to be a part-timer, why are people freaking that Jason Kendall wants $5 to be a full-time starter? In an odd twist, he might get that starting role by joining Pudge’s old club, the Rangers.

Why are the Brewers looking to trade Corey Hart? Here is a direct quote from my Twitter page. “The Brewers seem intent on moving Corey Hart, though I don’t really know why. Haven’t they heard adage – buy low, sell high?”

Milton Bradley continues to have his name involved in more rumors than just about anyone else. Guess teams are really interested in adding a guy who can’t stay healthy, wears out his welcome in about four months, and constantly torments fans and teammates with his off putting attitude. Only in America can a guy like that make more money in a year, over $10 million, than 99 percent of us will make in our entire lives.

The Giants have been linked to names like Adrian Beltre, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Nick Johnson and Orlando Hudson. The club would prefer to have Pablo Sandoval to play third, but he could easily slide over to first if a third baseman is brought to town. The club could also move Freddy Sanchez over to third if they were to sign a second baseman like Hudson, but a year after struggling for any pop, do they really want a third baseman who is likely to hit about 10 bombs in Sanchez?

By Ray Flowers

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In the News: Rumors

I finally bit the bullet and entered the Twitter world this week as BaseballGuys is now Twitter friendly. If you go to the page you can read all my brilliant one liners for the day. Here are two of my favorites from day one – one sports related, the other not so much.

“Who thought of calling dentists doctors? I can get my jaw jacked up by hitting on a gal at a bar who is there with her b/f for free.”
– I wrote that after having two fillings in my lower right jaw replaced (the old ones cracked). The good news is that I swapped out the silver for some gold. It’s not a platinum grill or anything, but way in the back there I got me some bling.

“Kung Fu Panda a workout fiend. Love the headband.”
– There is a link on the page so you can read the story about how Pablo Sandoval has dedicated himself to getting into a bit better physical shape. Here is a quote from the Panda. “The fans, I love them and want them to know I’ll always be the guy who’s working hard. I know I have to lose weight so I can play this game for a long time.”. It’s pretty crazy to think how good he could be considering (a) he was grossly out of shape last season, and (b) he really has no clue of what he is doing at the dish. After all, Pablo was second in the NL with a .330 batting average and seventh with his .943 OPS despite the issues.

THE RUMOR MILL

Sports Illustrated’s Jon Heyman reported that the Giants might be in the mix for Johnny Damon since the club doesn’t have enough dough to target high end offensive weapons such as Jason Bay or Matt Holliday. Seems to make sense to me. After all, Damon is 36 years old, just the perfect age for a Giants organization that just can’t seem to figure out how to construct an offense.

The Mariners reportedly have some interest in uber-talented yet continually injured Rich Harden. If healthy he could be a top-10 pitcher, but we all know there is no way that happens right? He sure would form a potentially lethal 1-2 punch with Felix Hernandez though.

The rumors are true with Tim Hudson – he did sign a 3-year deal to remain with the Braves. I broke down the deal and his 2010 outlook in Around the Horn. As an aside, you can read the same piece for my thoughts on what will happen to Milton Bradley.

The Royals are looking to move Mike Jacobs. Apparently, when you hit .228 with a .297 OBP teams sour on you pretty quickly. The Royals may also try and move Alberto Callaspo, potentially to the Dodgers for catcher A.J. Ellis. The Royals really don’t have a catcher with both John Buck and Miguel Olivo near certainties to move on (Olivo already had his option declined). In addition the Royals picked up Chris Getz to play second in the recent mark Teahen deal. All of this seems a bit odd though considering that Callaspo hit .300 with 73 RBI last season while not being eligible for arbitration until after next season.

Jason Schmidt will reportedly call it a career. His shoulder just never rebounded to the point where he was able to do anything on the hill. I’ll never forget his two year run in San Fran in 2003 (17-5, 2.34 ERA, 208 K, 0.95 WHIP) and 2004 (18-7, 3.20 ERA, 251 K, 1.08 WHIP). Until I saw Tim Lincecum pitch, I had never witnessed a Giants’ hurler who was as filthy or as potentially lethal as Schmidt.

By Ray Flowers

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The More Things Change

I’ve been writing it for about four months now, over and over again. Alas, no one in Philly was listening, and now they have paid the ultimate price. Here is a direct quote from World Series Preview. “Manager Charlie Manuel has a World Series Championship under his belt from last season, but the guy just scares the hell out of me with the use of his pitching staff.” Brad Lidge potentially blew the Phillies season in Game 4 allowing the big hit to Alex Rodriguez to blow the contest as the Phillies fell behind in the Series three games to one. No team since 1985 has come back from a 3-1 deficit (go Kansas City). At least that combo of Lidge-Manuel made me look good, and that’s all I really care about because I’m so vain.

Stephen Strasburg had a spotty outing the second time he took the hill in the Arizona Fall League as he was hammered, torched really, for eight runs (seven earned) over just 2.2 innings. However he improved to 3-1 with a victory on Monday and is now sporting a 5.28 ERA with 17 Ks in just 15.1 innings. Strasburg reportedly hit 100 mph on the radar gun with four of his first six pitches on Monday. The kid can flat out bring it like few who have ever played the game. I can’t wait to see him pitch in games that count come 2010.

The Giants fired hitting coach Carney Lansford after the team had the fewest walks in the majors (392) and the second fewest home runs (112). I find it hard to believe that it was Lansford’s fault. After all, the front office game him about five major league caliber bats to work with. To replace Lansford the team hired former Triple-A hitting coach Hensley Meulens. I doubt Hensley will be able to teach Pablo Sandoval to stop swinging at balls that nearly bounce. Still, I’m always surprised when the hitting coaches end up being guys who couldn’t hit when they played (kind of like how your high school gym teacher was always about 45 lbs overweight). In a career that spanned 496 ABs, Hensley hit .220-15-53 with a .641 OPS. The man he is replacing, Lansford, won a batting title in 1981 (.336), finished second in 1989 (.336) hit over .300 five times, and batted .290 with a .753 OPS while racking up 2,074 hits in his career. Doesn’t make much sense how some of the better hitting coaches just didn’t have successful careers.

And speaking of hitting coaches, why is everyone freaking out about the Cardinals signing of Mark McGwire to man the position? Certainly there is plenty of ammunition for those who want to attack McG for the Andro and performance enhancing drug issue, but that matters little today. There is also a group of people who say ‘McGwire hit .263 in his career, so what can he teach these guys?’ However, as I have just pointed out, compared to Meulens, McGwire was Picasso with the bat in his hands. The bottom line is that McGwire knows how to hit, and being able to teach the mental aspect is often the most important part of hitting. Regardless, did you ever hear anyone say that Mark didn’t have a beautiful swing? Controlled yet extremely violent at the same time, McGwire worked with the gifts that he had at his disposal, and in the end he retired with a .394 OBP and a .982 OPS. All told, McGwire is one of only two men who accrued at least 3,000 plate appearances in his career, hit below .265, and still managed a .390 or better OBP. I have no doubt he can help improve Cardinals batters by helping them to work with the gifts they have at their disposal, not to mention imparting the way to think as I mentioned.

By Ray Flowers

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