DraftDay Partners with BaseballGuys

You know me, I’m a huge fan of rotisserie fantasy baseball over Head to Head. However, there’s another type of fantasy baseball game that really piques my interest and won’t cause me to start frothing out the mouth out of anger (grrrr H2H), and that is the daily fantasy baseball game. To that end, BaseballGuys.com has partnered with DraftDay.com for the 2013 Fantasy Baseball Season. What does that mean? Before we get to that, let me tell you a little bit about DraftDay.com and why you should be paying attention.

Did you do your draft in early March only to then learn that Chase Headley, Hanley Ramirez, Derek Jeter, David Freese and Ryan Madson wouldn’t be ready to start the season? Do you feel like you’re already hosed when it comes to the 2013 fantasy baseball season? That’s where DraftDay.com enters the scene as something that you should really be interested in.

DraftDay allows you to play fantasy baseball every day of the season, just like traditional fantasy baseball, but you can select a new lineup on a daily basis. You’re not tied into a draft and then forced to play it out regardless of what happens. DraftDay offers daily fantasy games. Put a team together on Monday. Don’t like how that team performed? Well then just submit another lineup on Tuesday, on Wednesday etc. Heck, you can do two, three, seven, nine teams a day if you want. You literally set your lineup every day (you can even select multiple different lineups each day). You chose your lineup based on a salary cap with a $100,000 roster total and the following positions to fill: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, DH and two pitchers. The scoring system is easy to follow as well – you don’t need to understand how to calculate WAR to understand how it works.

BATTERS

Single = 5 pt
Double = 10 pts
Triple = 15 pts
Home Run = 20 pts
Run = 5 pt
RBI = 5 pt
Walk = 5 pt
HBP = 5 pt
Stolen Base = 10 pts
Caught Stealing = -5 pts
Out = -1 pts* Note – Defined by at-bats minus hits

PITCHERS

Win = 10 pts
Loss = -5 pts
Earned Run = -3 pt
IP = 3 pts*
Strikeout (K) = 3 pts
Walk = -1 pts
Hit = -1 pts
HBP = -1 pts
* Fractional scoring per out.

Pitchers Bonus:

Complete Game = 5 pts
Shut Out = 5 pts
No Hitter = 5 pts
Perfect Game = 5 pts

Simple, straightforward and easy to win. Speaking of winning… you win your contest and you get paid real cash. In fact, in most contests the top-5 finishers (at least), end up walking away with actual cash winnings. Contests run from as low as $1 dollar up to $200, with prized varying based upon the number of entrants in each contests.

Some games you might want to checkout.

Today’s contest is the $5K Moonshot with a $1,000 1st prize.

The “Mendoza Line” game where you break the 200 point threshold and split the prize.

You can even take on Ray Flowers each day in the Daily $5 game. It’s free to sign up, and if you beat The Oracle you’re eligible for $5 free dollars to spend at Draftday.

So there it is. An easy way to make a few bucks every single day of the major league season. There’s also a chance to take me on, who doesn’t want to put the hurt on The Oracle, and I’ll be writing an article on Tuesday’s and Friday’s for DraftDay giving my advice on who you should get in your starting lineups.

The crack of the bat, the smell of the grass… playball !

By Ray Flowers

Tags: Chase Headley, David Freese and Ryan Madson, Derek Jeter, DraftDay, Hanley Ramirez

Fantasy Player Profile: Brandon Belt

In the fantasy game, if a first baseman hit 16 homers and stole 15 bases, you’d be interested right? Well it turns out those are the numbers posted by the Giants’ Brandon Belt during his two seasons in San Francisco. Due to the way he has been utilized by the team in those two seasons he’s only been able to accrue 598 at-bats meaning his 16/15 effort has pretty much been accomplished in a season worth of playing time. What can the youngster bring to the field this season? Will the Giants play him on a daily basis? Does he have a shot to go 15/15 making him a legit option to finish the year as a top-12 first sacker. To the digging we go.

How many first basemen went 15/15 in 2012? The answer is one – Paul Goldschmidt. Over the past five years how many seasons of 15/15 have been produced by a first baseman? The answer is four – Goldschmidt, Albert Pujols, Joey Votto and Lance Berkman. Clearly the ability to steal a base is pretty foreign to the first base position. That makes Belt an intriguing addition to a fantasy club. In addition to his 15 steals he’s only been caught four times for a solid 79 percent success rate. It’s hard to count on 15 steals from Belt, but if he plays every day double-digit thefts should happen.

‘But Ray, the Giants haven’t been playing Belt everyday. Why is that?’

First, the Giants have been a championship caliber team the past few years as you might be aware, so the club hasn’t wanted to give away at-bats to a youngster merely because he had talent. Second, Belt has a few holes in his game that I will address in a second. Third, Bruce Bochy, the Giants’ managers, prefers to go with capable veterans if he has them at his disposal. Heading into 2013 the Giants don’t have a veteran option to play first base, it appears that Brett Pill could function as the backup when healthy (he’ll likely miss the start of the season with a knee issue that required surgery), so it’s really Belt’s job to lose.

Belt hit .225 as a rookie but he upped that mark to .275 last season as he showed marked improvement in the second half when he hit .293 over the course of 72 games. Belt knows how to take a walk, his 11.4 percent walk rate last season is solid, so that should help him to maintain his average. He’s also done a great job with a 22.1 percent line drive rate with his .328 BABIP mark reflecting that of hard hit balls. However, as we know, both of those marks are elevated (19-20 and .290-.300 are usually the big league averages). Players can hold on to those marks, they set their own baselines as we also know, but they are still big numbers even though Belt posted a .392 BABIP and 27.1 percent line drive rate in the minors in 2011. Maybe Belt is one of those players who will settle in at a higher level? We need more data to formulate a concrete answer.

What we do know is that he strikes out a lot. In the minors in 2011 Belt struck out 48 times in 53 games. He then cam to the big leagues and struck out 57 times in 63 games. Last season he knocked a bit off that K-rate, down to 106 in 145 games, but 106 punchouts in 411 at-bats is a poor 22.5 percent K-rate. That level of whiffs could certainly have a detrimental effect on his batting average production.

What kind of power does Belt have? As a left-hander at AT&T Park, his home ball yard does him no favors as Park Indices the last three years tell us that lefties have a mark of 63 in the homer column. That’s 37 percent below the NL average. It’s a terrible place for left-handed power hitters to play. Not surprisingly, Belt has a total of 16 homers in 598 at-bats even though most talent evaluators this this is a 25 homer bat. For his brief career Belt owns a fly ball rate of 39 percent an a fly ball rate of nine percent. Both of those marks are pretty much league average. Oddly, Belt has been a better hitter at home during his career (.289/.368/.465), much better in fact than he has been on the road (.232/.321/.376).

Some other tidbits.

Belt swung at more pitches in the strike zone last season than the year before (many in the Giants’ organization want Belt to keep his eye at the dish while augmenting that with a little more aggression at times). Belt pushed his swinging mark at pitches inside the strike zone from 73 to 77 percent in year two as he seemed to embrace the clubs direction. Unfortunately his contact rate fell from 77 to 74 percent, pretty much negating the improvements first measure.

Belt is intriguing. He’s a young fella, he’ll turn 25 in late April, and as a former college star with a lot of hype, there’s a solid chance that his 2013 effort becomes a memorable one. Given his draft day cost, Belt would seem to be a solid option as a corner infield play in mixed leagues, even if his power and average don’t take the next step (thank the wheels). The Giants finally appear likely to play him on a daily basis, and with the growth he flashed in the second half the trends are encouraging, even if his home ball park might mute his overall production at the dish a wee bit.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

By Ray Flowers

Tags: Albert Pujols, Brandon Belt, Brett Pill, Joey Votto, Lance Berkman, Paul Goldschmidt

Fantasy Beat – A Bit of Basketball & A Lot of Baseball

Justin Fensterman and Trevor Ray discuss a few key players to keep an eye out on your fantasy basketball waiver wires to make sure you win a championship. They also dive big into draft strategy for fantasy baseball to make sure you are ready for Opening Day.

NBA: Kevin Garnett, Jody Meeks, Steve Blake, Josh McRoberts

MLB: Aroldis Chapman, Craig Kimbrel, Rookies,  Tiering, Yasiel Puig, Dylan Bundy
LISTEN TO THE AUDIO.

Player Profile: Jayson Werth

Jayson Werth is one productive player, and he’s often being overlooked in fantasy baseball in 2013. Should you join the heard and ignore him, or should you buck that trend and target the Nationals’ outfielder in your fantasy baseball draft?

In 2008 Werth, while a member of the Phillies, went 20/20.

In 2009 he was one RBI and two runs away from a 30-100-100-20 season.

In 2010 he hit .296 with 106 runs scored.

In 2011 he saw his average dip to .232 though he was one steal from yet another 20/20 season.

Last year Werth was limited to just 81 games. But were you aware that he hit a career best .300 last season? Did you know that his OBP was .387, .025 points better than his career mark? Did you know that his OPS was .827, just slightly ahead of his career .824 mark? Despite all of that information Werth is currently being drafted just inside the top-50 at the outfield position. That must mean he is a potentially valuable add on draft day, right?

It’s a surprise to many that the following statements are true about Werth’s 2012 season (remember he was limited to just 81 games played so his overall numbers are a bit skewed).

If Werth maintained his pace through 81 games last year over the course of a 162 game season he would have hit .300 with 84 runs scored and 16 steals. That’s a pretty good season, isn’t it?

Did you know that his .300 batting average was better than Matt Holliday (.295), Alex Gordon (.294) and Yoenis Cespedes (.292)?

Did you know that his .387 OBP was better than Austin Jackson (.377), Shin-Soo Choo (.373) and Carlos Gonzalez (.371)?

Did you know that his .827 OPS was better than Bryce Harper (.817), Jason Heyward (.814) and Curtis Granderson (.811)?

How is a guy like that being drafted to late?

The most obvious thing to point to is that Werth missed half of the games last season. On the plus side he had appeared in at least 150 games each season from 2009-11 so recent history would seem to suggest that he has a good chance of rebounding in 2013.

Perhaps people look at the eight steals and aren’t impresses. As I noted though, he was on pace for 16 steals over the course of a full season. From 2009-11 he averaged 18 steals a season.

Perhaps people aren’t buying the .300 average. It was a career best, and he does own a .267 career mark. Why was his average elevated last season? His GB/FB ratio was 1.08, just slightly above his career 0.95 career mark. His 12.2 percent walk rate was just above his 12.1 percent career mark. His 18.9 percent line drive rate was a three year high but still below his career rate of 20.4 percent. Nothing going on there explains why his average went up. Two key points that I’ve yet to mention. After posting a career K-rate of 24.0 percent, Werth cut that number down to 16.6 percent last season. That’s damn impressive. Since that mark had never been below 22.5 percent since 2003 it makes you wonder if he can hold on to that again (the odds say he won’t). If he can it would go a long way to supporting his strong batting average. The other factor to look at is that .356 BABIP. That’s a really big number, but perhaps his give back in that column won’t be as pronounced in 2013 as some might think. (1) He owns a career mark of .327. (2) He had a .352 mark in 2010 an a .389 mark in 2007 showing that he can produce at that level for the course of a season.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

The other issue that has many nervous is his lack of pop last year, and I get why people are nervous there. From 2008-11 Werth never hit fewer than 20 big flies and averaged 27 homers a seasons. Last year he hit five, a pace that would equal 10 homers. Part of the reason that his power dissipated was the injury to his wrist that landed him on the 60 day DL. I say it all the time – hand/wrist injuries can sap a players power, especially right after they return. However, there is more to it than that. He simply didn’t perform up to normal standards. Remember earlier when I noted that his GB/FB ratio was a bit higher than normal at 1.08? That still isn’t a huge number, the league average was about 1.20 last season, so it’s not like he was hitting a ton of ground balls. However, his fly ball rate was 38.9 percent. That was the first time in four years he had failed to post a mark of 40 percent (his career mark is 40.8 percent). That’s a rather minor thing though an certainly doesn’t speak to a 50 percent drop off in homers. The reason that happened is that his HR/F fell to 5.3 percent. Not only is that about half the big league average, it’s a massive drop off for a guy who owns a 14.4 percent career mark, and one who had posted a mark of at least 12.3 percent each of the previous five seasons. As long as his wrist is healthy, he should see his homer total go back up.

So what to do with Werth? The National announced that they were moving Bryce Harper’s spot in the batting order. Harper will hit third behind Denard Span and Mr. Werth. That’s a great spot for Werth as he will see a lot of fastballs so that Span will have a harder time stealing and so that the game’s greatest phenom isn’t always coming to bat with players on base. With health there is a very reasonable expectation that Werth will provide numbers like he always has, and that means a .270-20-65-85-15 type of season is very well within the realm of possibility for a guy who it looks like you may be able to tab as your 4th or 5th outfielder. I like the sound of that a lot and so should you.

* Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Tags: Alex Gordon, Austin Jackson, Bryce Harper, Cralos Gonzalez, Curtis Granderson, Jayson Werth, Matt Holliday, Yoenis Cespedes

Player Profile: Dayan Viciedo

Last season Dayan Viciedo of the White Sox had 25 homers, one more than Hunter Pence, Nick Swisher and Nelson Cruz. Viciedo also knocked in 78 runs, the same total as B.J. Upton and four more than Ben Zobrist. All in all, a pretty darn successful first full season wouldn’t you say? So why is it that I’m never looking at his name with fondness on draft day?

Let’s start with the most obvious reason – he’s not a complete fantasy performer. Viciedo didn’t swipe a single bag last season. None. He’s totaled two steals in 214 career games. Best case scenario he is going to be a four category contributor.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

What about his power? Twenty five homers in 505 at-bats is a nice total, don’t let anyone tell you otherwise. If we combine his power totals from all the levels he performed at the past few years he hit 25 homers in 447 at-bats in 2010 and 21 homers in 554 at-bats in 2011. Clearly he has the pedigree of a fella who can routinely pound 25 pitches into the seats. That history helps to offset a little bit of concern, but I’m still a bit leery. For his career Viciedo has a 17.6 percent HR/F ratio, and that mark was elevated last season at 20.5 percent (15th best in baseball). Can Viciedo maintain that high level of effectiveness? He had better because his career 1.48 GB/FB is not at all what we are looking for when we’re putting together an ideal skill set for a power hitter. Let’s address his approach at the plate and that that might mean for his outlook.

Viciedo walked 28 times all last season. That’s barely a walk a week (the season is 26 weeks long). That’s awful. I mean really, really bad, like when you were seven years old and you convinced the kindergartner to trade you his Oreo cookies for your red apple at lunch recess (I always preferred the green apples personally). Not only does Viciedo never walk, but his K-rate is high at 22 percent for his career. Put another way, Viciedo has a 0.23 BB/K rate which is half the big league average. Also, his contact rate was 76 percent last year. The big league average was 79 percent. The bottom line is that his approach is poor. Therefore, it’s not at all surprising to see that he hit .255, which just so happens to be an exact match for his average in 102 games in 2011. The .255 average, given his approach is about right. The outlier is the .3080 average he posted in 104 at-bats during 2010. So his average isn’t likely to get much better, maybe he hits in the .270 range, but there’s nothing special happening here. What is also a concern is that his OBP last year was .300, just below his .307 career mark. To put that number into perspective the AL average the past three years has been .322. This negatively effects his fantasy value because if you don’t get on base you don’t score runs. If we remove his 25 bombs last season he only scored 39 other times. Terrible. His total of 64 runs scored overall was the same as Jose Bautista who had 173 fewer at-bats.

Another issue to concern yourself with.

Viciedo has crushed lefties in his career with a 1.014 OPS, but in 506 at-bats against righties it hasn’t been very good. Viciedo has gone deep 18 times with a slash line of .225/.274/.360 against righties. Yuck. It doesn’t seem like a platoon is coming down the pipe, but it’s something to think about as he’s not even league average against righties.

Viciedo is a young player, but one that doesn’t have a lot of hype surrounding him. As such, at least you don’t have to overpay for his services. If you’re in a 12 team mixed league and Viciedo is your 5th outfielder, that’s fine. However, be careful that you don’t roster him to be more than that. His plate discipline is terrible. He could lose some at-bats when a tough righty is on the hill. He never steals a base, and that HR/F ratio of his is pretty darn high. He could have a productive 10 year career with these skills, but he’s unlikely to rise the level of being truly relevant in mixed leagues.

* Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Tags: B.J. Upton, Ben Zobrist, Dayan Viciedo, Hunter Pence, Jose Bautista, Nelson Cruz, Nick Swisher

Player Profile: Brett Anderson

If you talk to some folks in the fantasy baseball world they will tell you they think that Brett Anderson of the Athletics can be a top-25 starting pitcher (the A’s seem to think so as well as they named him their Opening Day starter). You don’t have to draft him that highly this season, his ADP in NFBC Drafts is barely inside the top-40, so he should be viewed as a prime target on draft day right (for those of you interested, The Oracle currently has Brett Anderson inside his top-50 in his 2013 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide)? Let’s see here…

Anderson had a solid rookie season in 2009. After coming into the year as one of the top-10 prospects in baseball according to Baseball America he went 11-11 with a 4.06 ERA and 1.28 WHIP over 175.1 innings (he also punched out 150 batters). However, the injuries then began to strike. After making 30 starts as a rookie he totaled just 32 starts in 2010-11. Anderson was terrific in 19 starts in year two with a 2.80 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, but he made only 19 starts. In 2011 he lasted a mere 13 outings before he had to shut things down due to a wonky elbow that eventually required Tommy John surgery. Coming back from that injury in 2012 he tossed six games for the Athletics reminding everyone why there was so much interest in Anderson a few years ago (he went 4-2 with a 2.57 ERA and 1.03 WHIP). All told Anderson is 25-25 in his career with a 3.57 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Those numbers certainly don’t jump off the page at you at all, but they are solid numbers for a young hurler who has spent his brief career in the American League.

Let’s take a look at some of his other career numbers.

Anderson owns a career minor league number of 9.4 punchouts per nine innings. Wow is right. The only way that I could be more impressed was if he didn’t walk anyone. Viola. For his 54 game minor league career his walk rate is under two per nine leading to a dominating 4.98 K/BB ratio. Simply, you can’t help but have success with a nearly 5:1 K/BB ratio. In fact, you will likely be a borderline dominant talent if you can do that. Anderson hasn’t been quite that good at the big league level though. He’s still not walking anyone with a 2.19 per nine mark, but the K-rate has really shrunk down to less than seven per nine innings (only in his rookie season has that mark been seven – the last three year’s he’s posted marks of 6.01, 6.59 and 6.43 per nine). As a result he’s given back 40 percent of that K/BB ratio with the Athletics, though a 3.14 career mark is still darn impressive (for his career Felix Hernandez owns a 3.10 mark, Jered Weaver is at 3.17 mark and Jake Peavy at 3.20.).

Anderson’s other calling card at the big league level has been his impressive ground ball tendencies. Anderson has posted a ground ball rate of at least 50 percent in each of his four seasons, and last year the mark was a career best at 59.8 (his career rate is 54.0 percent). When you don’t beat yourself with the free pass, and you keep the ball on the ground, success is very likely to follow.

Anderson’s health is key. It’s one thing to have an injury here or there. It’s another thing to have suffered injury induced reduction in your innings pitched total for 3-straight years. At this point the good news is that Anderson has been deemed healthy after a setback in Spring Training, and it seems like he has a legit shot to return to the 30 start total of his rookie season. However, it would be wise to avoid getting too aggressive with Anderson. After all, he did throw just 35 innings last season for the A’s after throwing only 25.1 innings in the minors. Would the A’s allow Anderson to throw 175.1 innings in 2013 as he did back in 2009? If he did he would be adding more than 100 innings to his total from last season. Even if the A’s let him go for 175 innings he’s not likely to be allowed to reach 200 innings, and that does somewhat cap his value somewhat. It’s also a concern that he’s only been able to throw 120 big league innings in only one of his four seasons, and that certainly increases the risk. Still, he’s a very talented arm who induces ground balls with the best of them, and that should leave the floor pretty elevated with Anderson as long as he can take the ball every five days. He’s a solid 4th starter type to add to you mixed league squad though one that may have a bit less upside than others would lead you to believe given the health concerns and the lack of punchouts.

* Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Tags: Brett Anderson, Felix Hernandez, Jake Peavy, Jered Weaver

Player Profile: Josh Beckett

Josh Beckett is a big game pitcher. We all know that. But being able to summon his skills for a game here or there in October isn’t going to make him a worthy fantasy addition in 2013 is it? Will the move back to the NL to pitch for the Dodgers make him what he once was – a viable option on the hill in mixed leagues, a season after going 7-14 with a 4.65 ERA? Let’s investigate.

Dodger Stadium is a good place to pitch, always has been. Petco Park in San Diego, and AT & T Park in San Francisco, are also good places to pitch. That’s a solid foundation for Beckett, if the skills are still there. Are they?

Beckett has done the old Alex Rios, the up and down effort thing, in the ERA column. Look at his yearly marks since 2005:

3.37
5.10
3.27
4.03
3.86
5.87
2.89
4.65

Can’t explain that, it’s just the way it is.

His WHIP? From 2007-09 it was 1.14, 1.19 and 1.19. It then exploded in 2010 up to 1.54. He knocked it back down to 1.03 in 2011 before seeing it rise to 1.33 last season.

Let me take a step back for a moment. Did you notice that Beckett had a 2.89 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 2011? Two years ago he was an elite performer folks. Has the 32 year old lost it overnight? I find that hard to believe, don’t you?

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

Lat season was the first time since 2006 that Beckett failed to strike out eight batters per nine innings as the mark fell to 6.97. That’s a concern. His fastball lost about two mph from his normal heater at 91.4 mph (career 93.7). Is that a blip on the radar or his new level? That’s a fair question to ask. It would seem that Beckett realized what was going on as he threw his fastball only 48 percent of the time, the first time that mark had ever dipped under 50 percent. It also marked a fourth straight season of a decline in the percentage of times he hucks the heater. He’s upped his use of the cutter in recent seasons moving from 15, to 18 to 21 percent the past three years. Are batters falling for it? Yes, they are. His 32.3 percent mark in pitches swung at by batters outside of the strike zone in 2012 was the second highest mark of his career. Batters also swung at 69.1 percent of the pitches he tossed up there in the strike zone, the highest that mark has been since 2004. That’s an odd coupling. However, given his 8.5 percent mark on swing and misses on strikes, he’d been in the 8′s in five of the previous six seasons, would seem to suggest that his “stuff” was still OK.

However, Beckett seems to be nibbling more than ever. His 43.3 percent mark in pitches thrown inside the strike zone last season was the lowest of his career an a third straight season of a mark under 50 percent. In fact, the mark has gone down 4-straight years, and no one likes to see that (what I would like to see is pictures of Olivia Wilde – that is one beautiful woman no matter what scale you are using. Hypnotic eyes wouldn’t you say? How the heck did funny man Jason Sudekis get her? What does that guy have on me? OK, maybe $20 million dollars helps.). Beckett walked 2.75 batters per nine innings last year, one hundredth higher than his career mark. Seems like all the nibbling didn’t lead to any increase in the free passes he issued.

Always a homer magnet, Beckett has a career mark of 1.01 which belies a couple of whopper seasons he’s had (1.58 in 2006 and 1.41 per nine in 2010 stand out). His new home in L.A. will help that. According to Park Indices the last three years, Dodgers Stadium is just three percent above the NL average. The park shouldn’t be much of a factor in 2013.

So where does that leave us with Beckett?

It seems like Beckett will slot in as the third starter for the Dodgers behind Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke (when healthy). That’s three potentially impressive arms at the top of the rotation, and the other two should hopefully allow Beckett to relax a bit. The full-time return to the NL will also help, as well pitching in Dodger Stadium. Given the downturn that Beckett offered last year in the mph and K columns, some trepidation is warranted. On the other hand he is a year removed from dominating batters, is only 32 years old, and would seem to profile as an arm that is going much later than he should in many drafts. In a standard mixed league how could you not be interested in a guy with the pedigree of Beckett as your 5th starter (see the ADP information)?

* Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Tags: Alex Rios, Clayton Kershaw, Josh Beckett, Olivia Wilde, Zack Greinke

2013 – Tout Wars

Tout Wars is one of the two exclusive fantasy baseball events each year (the other is LABR which I participated in earlier in March). Thanks to the powers that be I was invited to New York to put together a squad in Tout Wars for the second straight year. Below, you will see how my team came together, and I’ll give some thoughts about the entire weekend, which by the way, was a total blast (gotta be the greatest group of folks anyone can work with).

15 team mixed league auction.
14 hitters (2 C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI, CI, 5 OFs, UT)
nine pitchers (any mix of starters and relievers)
$260 salary cap

* This league is using OBP in place of batting average. It’s still a 5×5 league, just with that one change.

* Numbers in () are prices paid for each player.

* This league also has a shallow bench, only four spots. However, there is also an unlimited amount of DL spots beyond the four bench spots meaning a player on the DL does not take up a bench spot – i.e. players who start the year on the DL can be replaced with players off the waiver-wire.

C: John Jaso ($6), Tyler Flowers (4)
1B: Eric Hosmer (17)
2B: Howie Kendrick (12), Emilio Bonifacio (6), Daniel Murphy (Reserve)
3B: Martin Prado (14), Manny Machado (6), Pablo Sandoval (14), Alex Rodriguez (Res)
SS: Derek Jeter (7)
OF: Carlos Gonzalez (36), Bryce Harper (33), Domonic Brown (6), Jon Jay (4), Cameron Maybin (6), Billy Hamilton (Res)

STARTING PITCHERS: Brandon Morrow (13), Cliff Lee (23), Zack Greinke (14), Tim Hudson (4), Ryan Dempster (1), Edinson Volquez (Res)

RELIEF PITCHERS: Sergio Romo (16), Joel Hanrahan (11), Mike Adams (3), Jose Veras (4)

Jaso is a solid hitter, and in an OBP league he’s a lot better option than in “normal” leagues (he had an elite .394 OBP last season). Flowers an I are not related but can you blame me for drafting my namesake? He has power and his OBP should be about league average.

Hosmer has had a killer spring, and you know I expect a bounce back (see his Player Profile). Machado may not have a strong OBP, but the rest of his game should be very solid for the price. Sandoval has that elbow issue, so there is uncertainty. I could have used my money elsewhere (another arm perhaps, see below for more on that), but when I saw him sitting there for such a cheap price I had to take the plunge. A-Rod goes to the DL, and I’ll grab another player.

Kendrick will never get to the level some hoped for, but he’s always solid across the board (see his Player Profile). He does take a bit of a hit in an OBP league though. Murphy was a nice reserve round add. I’ll be able to place him on the DL and add another player (a shortstop), to fill out my lineup. Wait, how does Emilio qualify at second? In Tout there is a 15 game per position requirement, not 20. Emilio appeared in 15 games at second base last season. Prado also qualifies in the outfield, and by this point I think everyone knows I’m a big fan.

Jeter isn’t great, and it looks like he’ll miss the first week of the season, but for $7 who is gonna complain? Not I.

CarGo on my team everyone understands, but Harper? I like Harper, but I’m not predicting a top-10 season this year like others are. “So Ray, why is he on your team then?’ I tossed out Harper at $33 and then… crickets. I was very surprised that no one said $34. Did I miscalculate? Certainly seems that way, though it’s not an obnoxious bid (Stanton went for $34, the same Price as Justin Upton to make me feel a little better, but when other 20/20 types in the outfield went for much less – Choo $25, Cespedes $24, Heyward $31 – let’s just say I wasn’t overly excited). There is no doubt Harper has the talent to justify that bid, just wouldn’t have been my first choice. Brown has had a tremendous spring, and there aren’t any more talented outfielders that went for less than $6. Jay isn’t exciting to most, but he is a .300 career hitter who had a .373 OBP with 19 steals last season in 117 games played. Maybin will struggle in OBP, but his wrist seems healthy. There’s a 15/40 season lurking here. Hamilton was a total shot in the dark reserve add. Normally I wouldn’t have done that, but since I have two injured guys I can place on the DL, I figured I could add Hamilton at little risk.

Yes, that was me at 2 AM at Foley’s shooting a double shot of Jameson. Take that Kay Adams. That’s right, the Oracle doesn’t just drink fruity drinks (check out the shocked look on Kay’s face in this photo… that’s the Oracle on the left and Kyle Elfrink on the right). Well, I do most of the time…

I love Cliff Lee. He’s a top-5 option in my mind. He gave me six wins last year in Tout, but I’m doubling down on him this season. I might have paid a dollar or two more when compared to other similar arms, but I feel like I made that back when I got Greinke for just $14. Morrow for a dollar less has a lot of up as well. That’s a pretty strong trio in my mind. Add in veterans like Hudson and Dempster and that’s a solid core. I also felt really good about Volquez in the reserves. He had an ERA under three with a WHIP in the 1.20′s and darn near a K per inning in his home starts last season.

As usual, I like my pen. I snagged Adams with an early bid, and he’s a dominant arm when healthy. Romo might have gone for a dollar or two more than he should have, but I’ve long said he’s a top-10 reliever in baseball if he can stay healthy. Some are worried about the varied performance of Hanrahan in Spring. I’m not. Jose Veras is no great shakes but he’s been over 10 Ks per nine the past three years and he appears to be the Astros main option in the 9th.

Some final thoughts.

My team has a ton of speed but might be a bit thin on power. I’ll address that at some point on the trade market once I get clear on the steals.

My staff needs another arm. I’ll almost certainly add one in the first waiver period with one of my two DL spot openings (I will use the other spot to get a shortstop to help cover until Jeter returns).

I usually limp slowly into drafts, but I went a bit bigger than normal thanks to the Harper add. That was unfortunate too. This draft would have played perfectly into my hands if I done my normal start slow, wade into the water slowly thing. As it was, I spent big early on some folks and that meant in the middle rounds, when a lot of “my guys” were going for less than market value, I just didn’t have the cash to spend (this was particularly evident on the hill – Lincecum for $10, Gallardo $15, Zimmerman $13, Wilson $8). I really hope I don’t regret not having the cash to spend on Lincecum. Hell, if I had gotten that foursome for $46 I would have felt flipping fantastic.

Best Picks: Bonifacio/Maybin for $6 each, Greinke for $14.
Worst Pick: Harper for $33 (only because it wasn’t my plan, not cause I hate the player).

Click on the link to see the 2013 Mixed Tout results.

By Ray Flowers

Tags: Alex Rodriguez, Billy Hamilton, Brandon Morrow, Bryce Harper, Cameron Maybin, Carlos Gonzalez, Cliff Lee, Daniel Murphy, Derek Jeter, Domonic Brown, Edinson Volquez, Emilio Bonifacio, Eric Hosmer, Howie Kendrick, Joel Hanrahan, John Jaso, Jon Jay, Jose Veras, Manny Machado, Martin Prado, Mike Adams, Pablo Sandoval, Ryan Dempster, Sergio Romo, Tim Hudson, Tout, Tout Wars, Tyler Flowers, Zack Greinke

Fantasy Beat – Cleaning the Glass & Rounding the Bases

Justin Fensterman and Trevor Ray start off talking about some NBA players that could see some increased minutes because they are playing on teams that are out of it. They also talk some general Free Agents to pickup for your playoff stretch. It’s now time for Trevor to quit complaining about NBA because he gets to talk some fantasy baseball. The guys discuss some key draft strategies people need to pay attention to.

NBA: Gerald Henderson, Wesley Johnson, Isaiah Thomas, Tiago Splitter

MLB: Tiering, Positional Qualification, PEDs, Lonnie Chisenhall, Jeff Keppinger, Chase Headley, Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Braun, Mike Trout

LISTEN TO THE AUDIO.

Tags: Chase Headley, Jeff Keppinger, Lonnie Chisenhall, Miguel Cabrera, Mike Trout, Ryan Braun

Injuries & Accusations

The 2013 major league baseball season is about to begin, so now is a great time to touch on two topics that are in the news on a daily basis – injured players and those that might be guilty of PED use.

WORKING WITH THE INJURY BUG

Corey Hart. Curtis Granderson. Mark Teixeira. Chase Headley. Hanley Ramirez.

All those players have significant injury concerns that will cost them one, possibly two months of the season (maybe even more in the case of Tex). The general reaction is to run away from those players immediately and not even bother looking at them on draft day. Is that the right way to look at this situation? Let’s use the case of HanRam.

Hanley was injured while playing third base in the World Baseball Classic (another reason to get rid of the event?). He tore a ligament in his right thumb and will be out of action two months as he needs surgery. Gone are his chances at being a top-25 player this season as he will miss a third of the season. So we just forget about him, right? Not so fast. Follow me here.

HanRam will likely be able to play 2/3 of the season this year. Let’s assume last year’s numbers are his baseline. Ramirez hit .257 with 24 homers, 92 RBIs, 79 runs scored and 21 steals, numbers by the way that are his worst in a full season at any point in his career. He played 157 games last season. Let’s say he plays 105 games at that level this season. If he were to do that here would be his fantasy line: .257-16-62-53-14. Those numbers still wouldn’t be awful for a shortstop if you were in a 12 or 15 team league, and they would certainly be solid for a middle infield option. But remember this salient point – while Hanley is out of action you will have an open spot in your lineup to fill. Let’s say that you roster Alexei Ramirez who you plan on starting until Ramirez returns. Let’s say that Ramirez plays 50 games for you while Hanley is shelved. Per 162 games in his career Ramirez has gone .276-17-77-77-14. How does that pro-rate over 50 games? Take a look: five homers, 24 runs, 24 RBIs, four steals

Let’s put the two players together.

HanRam (105 games): .257-16-62-53-14
Alexei (50 games): .276-5-24-24-4
TOTAL: .263-21-86-77-18

* The batting average is the .257 average of HanRam from last season and the .276 career average of Alexei giving 105 games to Hanley and 50 to Ramirez which equates to 156 hits in 594 at-bats.

That’s darn near a 20-90-80-20 effort.

Make sure you don’t discount players too quickly just cause they are injured. You still might be able to get strong numbers from a position if you are smart about what you pay for the assets that will fill those spots.

ACCUSATIONS – SHOULD THEY CHANGE YOUR OPINION?

I don’t know who will break the law tonight.

I don’t know who broke the law in the past.

I don’t know who is cheating or has cheated.

Neither do you.

I bring this up cause I get the question every single day, multiple times, about when to take Ryan Braun. My response is always the same, even if it’s misguided – he’s the #1 guy on my board. ‘But Ray, didn’t you read Jeff Passan’s piece about how major league baseball is targeting Braun in what seems to be a very aggressive and over the top manner?’ Of course I read the article. I wouldn’t have linked to it otherwise, and it does disturb me that MLB appears to be on a witch hunt to get Braun. But for now I’m not going to draft based on fear. I KNOW there are players in the majors right now who are cheating. You know it too. The problem is we don’t know who those players are. Do you pass on drafting a guy who gained 12 lbs of muscle over the winter? Do you pass on a guy because some vague/unsubstantiated rumor suggests that there is a possibility that something may have happened in the past? You certainly can choose to do that. However, as I led off this section with, none of us knows what is going on behind closed doors.

Maybe a guy is doing recreational drugs.
Maybe he boozes too much.
Maybe he beats his wife.
Maybe he’s going through a painful divorce.
Maybe his child is sick.
Maybe his parent died.
Maybe he’s got an illness that he’s hiding.

On, and on, and on…

The point is, playing the “what if” game gets us nowhere. We all have to admit that every player, every single one of them, comes with risk. If you feel Braun is too much of a risk because of the PED cloud, then pass on him. Realize though that Miguel Cabrera has an alcohol problem. Mike Trout can’t repeat what he did last year and has one season of big league experience. Robinson Cano is without Alex Rodriguez, Curtis Granderson and Mark Teixeira. Matt Kemp & Joey Votto are coming off surgery… they all have issues folks.

* Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Tags: Alexei Ramirez, Corey Hart, Curtis Granderson, Hanley Ramirez, Joey Votto, Mark Teixeira. Chase Headley, Matt Kemp, Miguel Cabrera, PEDs, Robinson Cano, Ryan Braun