Player Profile: James McDonald

On fantasy baseball draft day 2012 no one was buying Pirates’ hurlers. A.J. Burnett was hurt, Erik Bedard would be hurt soon (he always is – though surprisingly he wasn’t in 2012), and while James McDonald owned a good arm he’d yet to flash it consistently at the big league level. At the All-Star Break lots of people had interest in Pirates’ hurlers. Burnett was 10-2 with a 3.68 ERA, and McDonald was out of control good channeling Doug Drabek as he was 9-3 with a 2.37 ERA and 0.97 WHIP (Bedard made it through the half healthy but he went 4-10 with a 4.80 ERA). Things went south for the entire Pirates team in the second half, and no player typified that derailment better than McDonald who limped to the finish with a 3-5 record, 7.52 ERA and 1.79 WHIP over his last 13 outings. So who is McDonald? Is he the first half superstar, the second half loser, or the pitcher who overall went 12-8 with a 4.21 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 151 Ks in 171 innings pitched?

I usually don’t do this, but I’m going to give my answer before breaking down the player. Is McDonald an elite hurler? Certainly not. Is he so bad that he should be in Double-A? You know the answer to that is also a big fat no. That means, of the three categories I offered, that James is closest to the pitcher we saw for the duration of the 2012 season. I’m thinking Edwin Jackson like here, and if you owned McDonald you know what I mean as he was, at times, spectacular, and at other times spectacularly bad. Many will overlook McDonald on draft day because of his painful to contemplate second half numbers, but do yourself a favor and look at his season long numbers for the true picture. In fact, let’s compare his 2012 effort to his 2011 season. I know there isn’t one person in the world that would call McDonald consistent based upon his 2012 effort, but in reality, his season-to-season work was extremely consistent in a few key categories.

2011: 171 IP, 4.21 ERA, 0.92 GB/FB, 11.0 HR/F, 7.47 K/9
2012: 171 IP, 4.21 ERA, 0.99 GB/FB, 11.3 HR/F, 7.95 K/9

Remarkable isn’t it? And this brings up the point of perception. If you owned McDonald in the first half and kept your head about you, there was an understanding that McDonald was pitching well over his head and that at some point you would bail on him when things went south. If you turned away from logic and expected McDonald to keep up his first half run in the second half you were left as one angry, dispirited person. For the first group the perception is that McDonald just slowed down to become the pitcher he is (after all, look at the similarity in the numbers I listed above). If you were in the second ground you think that McDonald isn’t even a big league hurler, that he’s garbage, and that you would be a fool to look at him in 2013.

As I said at the top, I think the overall performance we saw last season is more of the hurler that McDonald is. His catastrophic failures in the second half, in my eyes, present a solid buy low opportunity in 2013. In addition to the similarities between his 2011 and 2012 numbers in a myriad of categories, there are a few other reasons to view McDonald’s 2012 season with a positive eye despite his deplorable finish.

McD recaptured half a K per nine innings over his 2011 mark, and his 7.95 mark is a strong number that is in excess of his 7.78 career mark. McDonald also cut his walk rate down to 3.63, about half a batter better than 2011. Those two moves allowed his K/BB ratio to go from a pathetic 1.82 in 2011 to a borderline passable 2.19 in 2012 (it was just under three tenths off the league average). As a result of the reduction in walks, his WHIP also went from an unacceptable 1.49 to 1.26 in 2012. That’s a better than league average number. Though his ERA was the same in both years, his SIERA and xFIP both say that the events under his control painted him to be a slightly better performer in 2012. Incremental growth from a guy in his second full season as a big league starter is encouraging.

I think McDonald can improve upon the numbers he posted the last two seasons. I also think that his draft day value will be beaten down by that dreadful second half so that McDonald will end up being available at a point in nearly every draft where he couldn’t help but represent a strong buy low option.
By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust – Wk 21: Did We Learn Anything?

On Monday each week I take a look at the fantasy baseball game breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances of late – not just positive outings mind you, but I’ll also delve into some of the players that have been sucking wind of late. Can you use this information to your benefit over at DailyJoust?

GAINERS OF THE WEEK

Brett Anderson (+171K up to $392,000 in DailyJoust Salary)
The A’s lefty has returned from Tommy John Surgery with flying colors mind you. In his first outing against the Twins he tossed one run ball over seven innings as he walked none and struck out six. A strong pitcher through 63 career starts, Anderson owns a 3.62 ERA and 1.25 WHIP for his career. Are those numbers he could match this year? It’s certainly possible, but remember it’s not always a linear path to success for guys returning from Tommy J. Think of Adam Wainwright. His April was dreadful, a 7.32 ERA and 1.47 WHGIP over four starts before he rebounded (for the season Waino has a 3.63 ERA and 1.18 WHIP through 26 starts). Anderson is well worth the add in 15 team mixed leagues, but those in 10/12 team leagues would be wise not to count on him too heavily until 2013.

Chris Iannetta (+35, $88K)
Three of the last four years in Colorado Iannetta hit at least 14 homers with 55 RBIs (the year he didn’t reach those marks he had only 188 at-bats in an injury shortened 2010). There was hope that Iannetta would get to 350 at-bats for the first time in his career this season, maybe even well into the 400′s in his new home in Anaheim, but injuries conspired against him. To this point he’s had only 134 at-bats and that has caused him to become an afterthought in two catcher mixed leagues. However, it might be time to start paying attention again. Over 20 games in August Chris has hit .286 with three homers, a .361 OBP an a .821 OPS, levels that he could maintain the rest of the way (well, maybe not the batting average, but it shouldn’t dip much below the league average).

Kyle Kendrick (+101, $356K)
The definition of average, there’s nothing that stands out with Kendrick. His K/BB ratio of 6.41 is a batter below the league average and his 3.13 BB/9 is league average. He allows 0.99 homers per nine. League average yet again. His 1.15 GB/FB is league average. Ditto his ratios – a 4.12 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. I wasn’t kidding when I said nothing stands out. So why mention him? Because it’s all working for him right now. Over his last three outings he has allowed a total of two runs while picking up three victories for the Phillies. He’s also walked a total of three batters while striking out 16. I’m not suggesting you completely buy into what is happening right now, it’s just not who Kyle is, but if you need a boost on the hill few that might be available are likely to be on a better roll (he’s owned in less than 10 percent of Fleaflicker leagues).

Angel Pagan (+30, $119K)
Pagan is 0-for-8 the lat two games but he’s still be flat out killing it of late. Over the previous eight games he produced 18 hits to push his average up from .280 to .290. In fact, he’s hit .301 over his last 40 games and .347 in August (25 contests). He’s not a power bat, he has only seven homers and 48 RBIs, but he plays every day, scores runs (69) and certainly has the speed to swipe a bag (21 on the year).

LOSERS OF THE WEEK

Joe Blanton (-149, $206K)
He should be much better than he is, at least in terms of the overall results. On the year he has a 7.76 K/9 mark, the best of his career, and his 1.57 BB/9 mark would tied his career best. As a result he has an elite 4.93 K/BB ratio that is virtually double his career 2.55 mark. The main issue has been the home run, something that often plagues him. Currently his HR/9 is a career worst 1.52, the third time it looks like he will have a mark of 1.38 or greater in the past four years (career 1.08). If he suddenly goes on a run of homerless ball to bring that number back to normal levels he just might be someone to turn to. As it is he’s looked awful with the Dodgers going 0-3 with a 7.71 ERA and 1.76 WHIP over four starts.

A.J. Burnett (-92, $359K)
He has 15 wins an only four loses with a 3.63 ERA and 1.25 WHIP on the year. That’s as good as anyone could have hoped for after his last two years in New York that led to an ERA of 5.20 and a WHIP of nearly 1.50. However, things have taken a downturn for A.J. recently. Over his last three started he’s given up four homers, he’s walked eight batters, and he’s allowed 14 earned runs to add nearly a half run to his ERA. It’s tough to turn away from Burnett, his total of 151.1 innings shouldn’t be wearing him down, but like James McDonald before him maybe we’re just seeing a natural correction.

Matt Joyce (-20, $55K)
Since he was beset my injuries Joyce has been a shell of his former self. Over his last 32 games he has hit just .216 with a mere three homers. His OBP in that time is .295 which is only palatable when one glances over to his SLG and sees a number that should be his OBP (.345). At this point, even if you’re in a 15 team mixed with five starting outfielders it’s nearly impossible to think that you don’t have a better option for a fifth outfielder.

Jason Kubel (-21, $57K)
I warned you to be careful almost exactly a month ago in my July 23rd Column.

“There’s zero chance he sustains his line drive rate (it’s 24 percent)”
His line drive rate has dipped to 22.8 percent.

“There’s zero chance he sustains his HR/F ratio (it’s 20 percent)”
His HR/F ratio is down to 19.5 percent.

“He’s striking out more than ever before.”
After never having a K-rate above 21.4 percent that mark has skyrocketed to 26.4 percent.

“…we know all good things must come to an end, right?”
Kubel has hit .160 with a .549 OPS in August.

He’s only two homers from tying his career best of 28, and with 14 RBIs he’ll have the second best total of his career (best is 103, second best 92), and his .267 batting average is only four points below his career average of .271. The regression was always likely to occur.

DAILY JOUST CONTESTS

I’ve spent this article talking about baseball, which obviously isn’t at all odd given that this is BaseballGuys.com, but I’ve got a way that you can, in addition to playing fantasy baseball, also play some fantasy football. How can you do that? You can head over to DailyJoust and sign up for any of the myriad of games they have to offer. For those of you who are hardcore baseball fans like me they are still running daily fantasy games for you, well, daily. For those of you who are read to take on the gridiron, there are three pretty exciting games they have to offer. You can find a report on each at the following links (scroll down to the bottom of the articles for the explanations).

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By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

The weekend is quickly approaching, so get ready to get your swerve on. For those of you looking to remain at least a little bit serious with your hobby (fantasy baseball not drinking) I’ll give some advice on how you might choose to fill out your lineup for Friday or Saturday while also suggesting you head over to DailyJoust.com to check out their unique brand of daily fantasy baseball games (including a way to win two tickets to the Major League All-Star Game).

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Jay Bruce vs. Nick Blackburn: Bruce has been ice cold for a while hitting .227 over his last 45 games. Still, he has 12 walks in 18 games in June and his SLG for the month is .500. Bruce has gone deep 12 times in 174 at-bats against righties this year and he gets to face Nick Blackburn who has been torched by lefty batters this year to the tune of a .393 BAA and .924 OPS against this season.

Andre Ethier vs. Dan Haren: The Angels’ righty has struggled a bit with health and performance which only adds to the aura for Ethier in this matchup. In 44 career at-bats Ethier has five doubles, two homers, seven RBI and a .386 batting average against Haren. James Loney also hammers Haren (.359 in 39 at-bats).

David Wright vs. Andy Pettitte: Wright is third in baseball with a .358 batting average. He’s hitting .343 in June. He’s hitting .343 against lefties this season. Facing Pettitte 24 previous times Wright has managed to produce two homers an a .458 batting average. Lock and load.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

A.J. Burnett vs. Tigers: The last eight times that Burnett has taken the hill this year he has allowed two or fewer runs seven times (he allowed three runs in the other outing). He’s also picked up a win in each of his last six outings. He does face a Tigers club that is potent, but I’m going to focus on his recent success this season and the 5-2 career record he has against the Tigers over the 5.92 ERA and 1.52 WHIP he has against the Motown club over nine career starts.

Jason Hammel vs. Nationals: Hammel has killed it at home this year with a 2.53 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over five starts spanning 32 innings. He’s also had success in his career against the Nats going 4-0 with a 3.99 ERA and 1.23 WHIP over six starts.

Clayton Richard vs. Mariners: (1) He’s facing the Mariners. (2) Richard is Matt Cain when pitching at home. Think I’m nuts? Here are the numbers that prove it.

Matt Cain 2012: 12Wins, 2.88 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 179 K in 222.2 IP

Clayton Richard career at Petco: 13Wins , 2.72 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 180 K in 228.1 IP

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Russell Martin vs. Chris Young: Martin has eight hits in 25 at-bats against Young leading to a .320 batting average. Martin has also had a solid June with four homers and nine RBIs for the Yankees.

Alexei Ramirez vs. Randy Wolf: The lefty from Milwaukee has bombed on the road this year with a 6.75 ERA and 1.84 WHIP over six starts. Ramirez has finally started to pick things up of late as well as he’s hitting .359 the past two weeks, and for his career he has hit .300 in 617 at-bats against lefties.

Ben Zobrist vs. Kyle Kendrick: Over the past two weeks Zobrist is hitting a robust .400 (he’s also scored 10 runs in 10 games). Kendrick, on the other hand, has struggled like he’s looking to be demoted as he’s allowed at least five runs in each of this last three starts as his ERA has gone from 4.02 to .529.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Johnny Cueto vs. Twins: The Twins can’t hit, and that situation isn’t helped by the fact that Joe Mauer can’t get his wheel healthy enough to play. Cueto has never faced the Twins but he’s sporting a 2.68 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in six home starts this season, and over his last four outings overall he’s permitted only seven runs while not allowing a single long ball.

Ian Kennedy vs.  Cubs: Though he owns a 5.91 ERA over three starts against the Cubs, how about we focus on the positive –  he’s lasted 21.1 innings in those three starts during which time he has struck out 18 and walked only two leading to a 1.08 WHIP. Kennedy has also allowed two or fewer runs in three of his last four starts this year. The key will be keeping the ball in the yard as he’s allowed nine homers over his last eight outings.

Adam Wainwright vs. Royals: Wainwright is back on his game, well pretty much. Though he allowed seven runs on June 1st the other six times he has taken the hill since May 20th have resulted in eight earned runs allowed. In the process Adam W. has lowered his ERA from 5.77 to 4.46. He’s also had success in his career against the Royals with a 3.31 ERA and 1.01 WHIP over 32.2 innings.

CONTESTS

Over at DailyJoust folks, lots of hot things popping (didn’t I sound super street there?).

Friday June 22 7pm EST – 2012 MLB All Star Joust.

This contest has been running for the past six weeks and Jousters have been playing every day to see who will qualify. If you were the winner of a $1 Page Thomas or $2 Squire Williams All Star Joust Qualifier, then you have earned a seat in the All Star Joust. The winner of All Star Joust will receive $1500 CASH plus 2 tickets to the 2012 MLB All Star Game in Kansas City on July 10th.

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Contracts, Expectations and Bigfoot

Yadier Molina is a rich man. Buster Posey is trying to prove he is healthy. Grady Sizemore is on the sidelines yet again. A.J. Burnett needs to learn how to bunt. All this and more in today’s article at BaseballGuys.com.

For those of you looking to get a draft guide to help you to dominate the competition, I’ve got you covered.

Yadier Molina signed a 5-year, $75 million deal to remain with the Cardinals. I’ll say this, Molina is one of the most well rounded catchers currently pulling on the tools of ignorance. He’s got a rocket for an arm, calls a good game, and he took his offense to new heights last season when he reached career bests in average (.305), homers (14), RBI (65) and runs scored (55). Molina also surpassed his career OPS by .107 points with his .814 number. So clearly the Cards did the right thing in locking him up, right? Well, I don’t know about that. The contract covers Molina during his age 30-34 seasons, not exactly time to put him in an old folks home or anything, but that’s getting up there fore a catcher who is playing 135 times a season. In fact, the deal is the third largest in baseball history for a catcher behind the preposterous 8-year, $184 million that Joe Mauer received and the 7-year, $91 million deal that was lavished on Mike Piazza. Molina is a top-10 option at the catcher’s position in terms of his fantasy value for 2012 in my mind even if he fails to live up to the homer total from last season, but I worry about his ability to be a top-10 option when he turns 34 years old (of course, in the real game, defense matters a heck of a lot and that’s a good part of the reason that the Cardinals lavished Molina with that big money deal). Oh, and for reference sake, Jose Bautista signed a 5 year deal for $65 million this offseason. Molina better stay healthy and continue to be an excellent defender.

Speaking of catchers, Buster Posey will not play in the Giants Cactus League opener on Saturday. The team is taking it easy with Posey who may not actually see game action until the middle of next week. I’m still not convinced though. He still isn’t running the bases yet, and there is no telling just how well his body will handle the grind of catching since he last played a game in late May of last season. Those that are drafting him as a top-5 option at catcher and a top-75 option overall might hit it big if Posey is healthy, but at this point I’m thinking that it might be time to start waiving the cautionary yellow flag with Posey.

I’ve realized I’m a pretty good cook. At the same time, it’s all about following a recipe and having some confidence, so I shouldn’t be patting myself on the back too heavily.

Grady Sizemore will never be the player he once was. He was a 30/30 performer in 2008, and he once scored 134 runs with a .907 OPS (2006). Alas, injuries to his lower half have limited him to just 104 games played the last two years. Now we get news that he is likely to miss 8-12 weeks after needing micro disecectomy surgery on his lower back. At this point, you had better not be counting on Sizemore to help you out at all in a mixed league in 2012, or perhaps ever again unfortunately. Even if I was drafting in an AL-only league, Sizemore shouldn’t be viewed as anything more than a 4^th or 5^th outfield option, an even that might be pushing it since it appears likely that a best case scenario would see him back at full strength on June 1^st. In the meantime, Michael Brantley should step into the starting role in the outfield and at the top of the batting order. If Brantley can get 500 at-bats he could be a significant AL-only option, but there is still a very real possibility that at some point when Sizemore returns Brantley will see his playing time curtailed.

Did you see the most recent “proof” that bigfoot exists? It’s a photo of something that looks awful big and hairy. Photos can be so easily manipulated anymore, but what about footprints? There was a string of tracks, 122 in all, that were recently discovered in Oregon. Why did I bother posting this information? Perhaps it’s because I always wanted to be a cryptozoologist. By the way, here’s a great story about Bigfoot and baseball players.

Poor A.J. Burnett who I wrote about in his Player Profile. Burnett was injured while bunting – who said baseball wasn’t a contact sport – and he will have surgery to repair a fractured orbital bone around his right eye Friday. It sounds like Burnett will miss 8-12 weeks, hardly a confidence inspiring start to his career with the Pirates.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: A.J. Burnett

The Yankees and the Pirates worked out a deal that sends the hard throwing A.J. Burnett to the Pirates in exchange for Diego Moreno and Exicardo Cayones (neither is a top prospect). The Pirates also received $18 million from the Yanks to help offset the $31 million that Burnett is due to the next two seasons. Just what type of arm did the Pirates roster for the sum of $6.5 million the next two years?

Burnett’s big ticket item in the fantasy game are the punchouts. You may not have realized it, but A.J. struck out 173 batters last season, one fewer than Max Scherzer, the same total as Michael Pineda, four more than Daniel Hudson and seven more than Wandy Rodriguez. Moreover, the past five years Burnett has struck out 920 batters which just so happens to be the 10th best mark in baseball. It’s also heartening to see that he pushed his K/9 mark back over eight last season after seeing it dip to 6.99 in 2010. He isn’t likely to strike out 200 in the coming campaign, but he could easily post another season of 170 (don’t overlook the fact that he will face pitchers instead of the DH).

All those K’s bring up another point with Burnett. Though he’s long been thought of as an injury risk, and rightly so mind you, he’s actually been pretty darn healthy the past four years never failing to hurl at least 185 innings. His total of 805.1 innings the past four years is 22nd in baseball, ahead of guys like Matt Garza (790.1), Gavin Floyd (780.1), John Danks (778.2), Chad Billingsley (776.2) and Ted Lilly (768). It seems like you can safely roster Burnett expecting him to make 30 starts covering 180 innings, and that stability might help you sleep a bit better at night.

Now Burnett has his fault, and this piece isn’t going to be written with rose colored glasses. He still walks too many batters, last year he issued 3.92 walks per nine innings slightly above his 3.79 career mark, but that’s well within the random variation level of acceptance (even if the number is elevated when compared to the big league average). Something he has not been able to get a handle on though is the long ball. The past three years he’s had a HR/9 mark of at least 1.09 including last years mark of 1.47, a career worst (you can at least partly blame a massive 17.0 percent HR/F rate that was well above his 11.3 career mark). This is an area where he could see some improvement. In 2011 Yankee Stadium was 26 percent above the average AL park in terms of allowing home runs according to Park Indices. His new home in Pittsburgh was 19 below the NL average according to Park Indices clearly pointing to the fact that he might be able to see a fair amount of decrease in his homer rate.

Burnett posted a 49.2 percent ground ball rate last year, and that was a four year best. If he can hold on to that number in 2012, while seeing a slight reduction in his HR/9 mark (the park alone should supply that), he could be in line for a significant improvement in his ERA (his xFIP last year, which is the rate normalized to a league average HR rate, showed a three year best at 3.86. How differently would you be looking at him right now if his ERA was 3.86 versus his actual mark of 5.15?).

Here are the facts as I see them.

Burnett has thrown at least 185 innings each of the past four years.
His strikeout total the last five years is the 10th best in baseball.
In 2011 his K/9 and BB/9 rates were smack on his career marks.
His left on base percentage was 70.0 percent (career 71.4).
His GB/FB ratio was 1.52 (career 1.50).
His line drive rate was 18.5 percent (career 18.4).

I don’t know about you, but that certainly doesn’t sound like a guy who should have had a 5.15 ERA. In fact, it sounds much more like the guy who owns a career mark of 4.10. Bid accordingly on draft day 0 i.e. think of the 2009 version (13-9, 4.04 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 195 Ks) – as Burnett is likely to offer a solid return on investment because you will likely be able to add him for relative peanuts when others at the draft are starting to swig their beer and make plans to hit the bar scene (to see how little love that Burnett is getting, take a look at Fleaflicker).

Don’t forget to pick up a copy of the 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Phil Hughes

Phil Hughes was a fantasy star in 2010 winning 18 games for the Yankees, but he fell flat on his face last year going 5-5 with a 5.79 as he fought a mysterious arm issue most of the year. Which Hughes will show up in 2012 – the borderline star of 2010 or the washed up nothing of 2011? That’s the question of the day.

You can read about his rotation mate in Ivan Nova’s Player Profile.

I’ll say this off the top, I wasn’t a fan of Hughes heading into the 2011 season. As early as April of last season I was telling people to be very nervous about Hughes (you can read my thoughts in the April 12th Mailbag). As I stated in that piece, Hughes was dealing with a mysterious arm related issue. At various points he lost 5-7 mph off his fastball and the team was generally perplexed. Tests were run, surgery was contemplated, but in the end it was determined that there was nothing structurally wrong with his arm. He was placed on the 60 day DL and worked through his issues only to return and injure his back. Ultimately the mph came back alleviating some concern, but his previous self never quite returned in 2011.

Hughes did pitch moderately better over his last 13 outings of 2011 with a 4.55 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 2.00 K/BB ratio, but those numbers are hardly imposing nor do they match what he accomplished in 2010 (4.19 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 2.52 K/BB). There is also this; Hughes was phenomenal in the first half in 2010 going 11-2 with a 3.65 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over 16 starts. However, since the All-Star break in 2010, his performance would relegate him to the waiver-wire in almost every league if not for (1) his name and (2) the logo on his jersey. Here are the poor numbers he’s produced since mid-July 2010:

12-11, 5.34 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 6.1 K/9, 1.82 K/BB over 150 IP

How bad are those numbers? A.J. Burnett, Hughes’ teammate on the Yankees and one of the biggest disappointments in 2011, went 11-11 with a 5.15 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, 2.08 K/BB. Pretty close ain’t it? Again, I’m not talking about five starts, or 50 innings with Hughes, I’m talking about Hughes being a decidedly sub par hurler for 150 innings. That’s an awfully long time, an in truth, he’s been awful longer than he’s been good (remember he really only stood out as a starting pitcher in the first half of the 2010 season).

Looking at his career numbers, the picture doesn’t brighten that much either. His career 7.51 K/9 mark is is about a half batter above the league average, but that number is greatly enhanced by his work out of the bullpen in 2009 (96 Ks in 86 innings). His 3.18 walk rate is big league average leaving his 2.36 K/BB ratio as only slightly better than the norm which is about 2.10. His 70.4 percent left on base rate is smack dab on the league average. His .286 BABIP is just off the .290-.300 big league average. His 8.9 HR/F ratio is right there with the big league average that usually sits in the 9-10 percent range. His 1.08 HR/9 ratio, not surprisingly, is league average. Finally, his 0.78 GB/FB ratio certainly isn’t good an it’s well below the league average of just over 1.00. See what I mean when I write that so much of his value is based on 18 wins in 2010 and the NY logo on his jersey?

I will not be targeting Hughes in any league in 2012. In fact, I’ll be hard pressed to end up with him on my roster unless I’m in an AL-only league. He certainly posted strong fantasy numbers in 2010, but as I’ve laid out above, that was based nearly entirely on his hot first half. Over his last 150 innings he’s been a bad pitcher, it’s just as simple as that, and for his career the numbers show a replacement level arm at work. He might return to prominence in 2012 but it would be a bad move to count on that occurring.

By Ray Flowers

Is Anyone Listening?

photo © 2005 Dave Herholz | more info (via: Wylio)

Albert Pujols is down with an injury and likely to miss 4-6 weeks IF he heals on schedule and IF the Cardinals are being honest about his injury (they’ve grown increasingly less trustworthy in their reporting of injuries). The Cardinals are hosed, Pujols could have cost himself money on the market (I doubt that), and his fantasy owners are totally jammed up. Sad situation all around. Glad I didn’t just swing a huge deal to add Pujols in the Sirius/XM Experts League two weeks ago. Whoops, I did.

Did you give up on Mark Reynolds despite my telling you not to? Reynolds has been hot in June hitting .300 with six homers and 12 RBIs while he’s racked up an ultra impressive 1.155 OPS. Yes he’s still hitting just .217, but his recent run of offensive production has pushed his pace up to 30 homers, 85 RBI and 83 runs scored. Care to guess what his average numbers where the last three years? How about 35 homers, 95 RBI and 88 runs. Pretty darn close wouldn’t you say?

Did you give up on Brandon League during what could have been the worst run of pitching by any reliever in baseball history (from May 8th to May 13th he appeared in four games picking up four loses and three blown saves while allowing 10 earned runs in 2.2 innings)? League hasn’t allowed an earned run since May 13th to drop his ERA back down to 3.90. His WHIP currently sits at 1.07, and if you remove that one week of pitching he would be 20-for-20 in save conversions and his ERA would be 0.99.

The date was October 28th, 2010. That day I penned an article titled Pitchers: Not as Bad as You Thought. In that piece I suggested four names who could return a significant profit in 2011 because their apparently poor work in 2010 would lead to them being undervalued on draft day. Here are the four names that I discussed with a little diddy on how each is currently performing.

Scott Baker (5-4, 3.24 ERA, 88 Ks, 1.17 WHIP in 91.2 IP)
He’s allowed one run over his last two starts, has won each of his last three outings to improve to 5-4, and his ratios this season are outstanding. Baker also has a career best 8.64 K/9 mark and has been everything I hoped he would bee when I commented on how valuable he could be eight months ago. Did you listen? Judging by how many queries I received about Baker the past two weeks I’m gonna have to say very few did.

James Shields (7-4, 2.40 ERA, 108 Ks, 1.00 HWIP in 112.2 IP)
Shields is third in the AL in ERA and 6th in WHIP, and he’s also fourth in the league in innings pitched while his five complete games and three shutouts are the most in baseball. You remember back in March when he was listed 24th amongst starting pitchers in my Top-100 Starting Pitchers? Do you remember how you sent me emails and tweets about how stupid I was?

Chris Narveson (4-4, 4.48 ERA, 70 Ks, 1.39 WHIP over 78.1 IP)
I’m not going to admit total failure here, but he’s not been as good as I hoped. Still, he does have his use as his K/9 rate of 8.04 is solid while his 1.48 GB/FB ratio is encouraging. Hell, what are you complaining about since you drafted Narveson in the 27th round in your mixed league.

A.J. Burnett (7-5, 4.05 ERA, 76 Ks, 1.22 WHIP in 93.1 IP)
Direct hit yet again. Burnett is on pace to better his numbers from last season, some substantially. After all he was 10-15 with a 5.26 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in 2010. Did you take a chance on him late in drafts cause of my recommendation or simply because he pitches for the Yankees? It’s a concern that his K/9 rate is just 7.33, that’s nearly a full batter below his career rate, but at least it’s better than the 6.99 mark he posted last season.

By Ray Flowers

Top-100 Starting Pitchers

Earlier this week I released the 2011 Pitcher Capsules in a wonderful collaborative effort with PaulSporer.com. Unlike hitters where I broke down everything you need to know in my 2011 Hitter Capsules, I didn’t have any input in terms of pitchers in the above linked guide. Therefore, I thought I would share with you my personal rankings for starting pitchers.

Pitchers in bold are hurlers I would target. I’ll also give some general thoughts at the end of the rankings.

TOP-100 STARTERS

1 Roy Halladay
2 Felix Hernandez
3 Tim Lincecum
4 CC Sabathia
5 Cliff Lee
6 Jon Lester
7 Clayton Kershaw
8 Josh Johnson
9 Justin Verlander
10 Dan Haren
11 Cole Hamels
12 Jered Weaver
13 Roy Oswalt
14 Tommy Hanson
15 Mat Latos
16 Ubaldo Jimenez
17 Yovani Gallardo
18 Chad Billingsley
19 Max Scherzer
20 David Price
21 Wandy Rodriguez
22 Zack Greinke
23 Francisco Liriano
24 James Shields
25 Ryan Dempster
26 Josh Beckett
27 Matt Cain
28 Chris Carpenter
29 Ricky Nolasco
30 Brett Anderson
31 Jonathan Sanchez
32 Ricky Romero
33 Brandon Morrow
34 Ted Lilly
35 Shaun Marcum
36 Matt Garza
37 C.J. Wilson
38 Colby Lewis
39 John Danks
40 Hiroki Kuroda
41 Tim Hudson
42 John Lackey
43 Johnny Cueto
44 Phil Hughes
45 Daniel Hudson
46 Madison Bumgarner
47 Gavin Floyd
48 Edinson Volquez
49 Brett Myers
50 Trevor Cahill
51 Jaime Garcia
52 Clay Buchholz
53 Scott Baker
54 Jordan Zimmerman
55 Ian Kennedy
56 Jake Peavy
57 Brian Matusz
58 Jonathan Niese
59 James McDonald
60 Ervin Santana
61 Gio Gonzalez
62 Carlos Zambrano
63 Jhouyls Chacin
64 Jeremy Hellickson
65 Clayton Richard
66 Jorge De La Rosa
67 Jair Jurrjens
68 Carl Pavano
69 A.J. Burnett
70 Edwin Jackson
71 Javier Vazquez
72 Bud Norris
73 Brett Cecil
74 Mike Pelfrey
75 Fausto Carmona
76 Justin Masterson
77 Anibal Sanchez
78 Tim Stauffer
79 Jake Westbrook
80 Travis Wood
81 Bronson Arroyo
82 Aaron Harang
83 Jeff Neimann
84 J.A. Happ
85 Wade Davis
86 Dallas Braden
87 Mark Buehrle
88 Randy Wolf
89 Randy Wells
90 Homer Bailey
91 Joe Blanton
92 Barry Zito
93 Kyle Drabek
94 Rick Porcello
95 Michael Peneda
96 Daisuke Matsuzaka
97 Carl Pavano
98 R.A. Dickey
99 Mike Minor
100 Derek Lowe

* I see a lot of talent in the 25 to 40 range on this list which leads me to think that you don’t have to reach for starting pitching this year. Wait, I say that all the time. Trust me, if you go into a standard mixed league with a staff of Beckett, Nolasco, Anderson and Lilly – your going to have a darn solid pitching staff.

* I have Clay Buchholz at #52, and I know many will disagree with that. I see a guy who had an ERA of 2.33 last year though he likely should have had a mark at least a run higher. He gets grounders at a nice clip, but he doesn’t strike many out, walks batters at the big league average, and was exceedingly lucky with both his LOB% (79.0) and his HR/9 mark (0.47). When those numbers normalize, and they will, I’d be be shocked if his ERA was below 3.70.

* Gio Gonzalez at #61? Though successful last season his K/9, while still strong at 7.67, was a about batter below his career rate. He also walked more than four batters per nine, and that was a three year best. Like Buchholz, he also has little chance of keeping his ERA within a run of his mark from last season (3.23) given his LOB% (78.1) and HR/9 mark (0.67).

* The 60′s are the land of the young (Jhouyls Chacin, Jeremy Hellickson) and the old (Carl Pavano, A.J. Burnett).

* I’d take a shot on the potential upside dominance of Bud Norris (72) over the steady but boring Bronson Arroyo (77), Derek Lowe (78) and Jake Westbrook (79).

* Tim Stauffer (78) – All you need to know about this righty can be found in 2011 Player Profile: Tim Stauffer.

* The 80′s are populated with veterans you know but might overlook. Mark Buehrle (81) has issues striking out batters, but he throws 200 innings, wins in the double-digits, and rarely kills your ratios. Aaron Harang (82) was actually a lot better than you think the past three years despite outwardly looking lost (7.40 K/9, 2.88 K/BB). If healthy, Petco could be a huge boost for him.

* The 90′s have tons of unproven talent.

Homer Bailey (93) – See Which Pitchers Should I Target?

Kyle Drabek (94) – Likely to open the year in the Blue Jays rotation. He has an advanced understanding of pitching.

Michael Pineda (95) – I’d be surprised if he was up before June, but he will be a strikeout force when the Mariners finally turn to him.

Mike Minor (99) – Battling Brandon Beachy for the 5th spot in the Braves’ rotation. Minor wore down at the end of last season, but he has the stuff to be a top of the rotation arm.

By Ray Flowers

Two All-Time Greats?

In today’s article I will discuss two of the best performers that the game has seen over the last 20 years. One could potentially be hanging up his spikes while the other is hoping to have his name called out in a couple of days when the Hall of Fame voting results are announced.

The Yankees Are in Trouble

Reports continue to trickle out that Andy Pettitte is legitimately leaning toward retirement (an announcement could even come within the next few days). This isn’t a salary push or anything like that, it’s simply a decision that Pettitte needs to make for himself and his family as he has apparently grown a bit weary of the toll the game has taken on his body. Here are the facts.

(1) He doesn’t need the money having made more than $125 million in his career.

(2) His place in history is secure. Pettitte has been one of the finest postseason pitchers of modern times, just take a look at the numbers: 19-10, 3.83 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 173 Ks over 263 innings pitched. As for his regular season work, he’s also been one of the best left-handed pitchers of recent times. Not just that, he profiles quite well amongst all lefties who have ever pitched as his total of 240 victories is tied for 12th all time with Herb Pennock and Frank Tanana. Pettitte also has a winning percentage of .635 in his career which is the 9th best mark of any left-handed pitcher in the history of baseball (min. 1,500 innings pitched).

(3) He was darn good last season, even at 38 years of age, as he went 11-3 with a 3.28 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. Unfortunately he was limited to 129 innings, his lowest total of his 16 season career other than his injury plagued 2004 season. Given the struggles to stay healthy last season, it just sounds like Pettitte has had enough.

(4) If he doesn’t come back, as seems quite likely at this point, the Yankees are in big, big trouble. Here would be their projected rotation, sans Pettitte, if the season started today.

CC Sabathia: A worthy #1.

A.J. Burnett: Coming off his worst season (5.26 ERA, 1.51 WHIP).

Phil Hughes: Won 18 games but had a 4.90 ERA after the break and has only one season of starting in
bigs.

Ivan Nova: He’s appeared in all of 10 big league games.

Sergio Mitre: Made only three starts last season and owns terrible career ratios (5.27 ERA, 1.50 WHIP).

If you are a Yankees’ fan it’s time to pray to whomever you pray to because you desperately need Andy Pettitte to put off retirement for another year.

The Historical Place of the DH

Almost a year ago to the day I wrote a piece about Edgar Martinez and his Hall of Fame candidacy entitled Is There Room for a DH? In that piece I laid out my thoughts about the case of a man who was a Hall of Fame worthy performer, save for two significant points. (1) Martinez wasn’t given a full-time role with the Mariners until he was 27 years old, so some of his counting numbers just aren’t that impressive when placed in a historical context (he had only 309 homers, one less than Jay Buhner and 1,261 RBI, 10 less than Tino Martinez). (2) No full-time designated hitter has ever been elected to the Hall of Fame (Martinez played the field in less than 30 percent of his career games). Both points, on their own, could be enough to keep Edgar from ever being enshrined in the halls of Cooperstown.

At the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account today there was some back and forth about the fact that Martinez deserved to be in the Hall of Fame. After all, DH is a position, to which I argued it’s a one way position. Martinez was a hitter, but would anyone call him a player? In my mind that means he will have a very difficult time convincing the voting body that he deserves baseball’s ultimate honor. Conversely, it can be argued that pitchers only do one thing – pitch – and no one has any complaints about hurlers making the Hall so perhaps people will be willing to overlook the fact that Martinez played most of his career without even owning a glove. In the end I wish that baseball would do the right thing and eliminate the whole debate by returning the game to its roots by riding itself of the abomination that is the designated hitter.

And finally, are you as pumped as I am about the upcoming 2011 fantasy baseball season? In order to help you kick off your quest to be a champion in ’11, we at Fanball have set out to provide you with all the tools that you need to accomplish your goal. Read more about how to start your journey in Your Fantasy Baseball Resolution where you will find links to staff rankings, projections, live advice and DraftPractice.com where you can mock away for FREE.

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: The Arms Race

In today’s article I’ll expound upon a rather interesting comparison between setup men. I’ll also discuss another reliever looking for a home, an all-time great who might retire, and the hottest arm on the free agent market if you decide that based upon the numbers of teams that want to sign him to a deal.

Daniel Bard vs. Joba Chamberlain: The perception is that the Red Sox righty reliever is a much better option in 2011. However, is that really the case? Let’s compare each hard throwing setup man to the other based on 2010 numbers.

Bard:1-2, 1.93 ERA, 1.00 WHIP
Joba: 3-4, 4.40 ERA, 1.30 WHIP

Clearly Bard was the better pitcher last season, and it wasn’t even close. Or was it?

Bard: 9.16 K/9, 3.62 BB/9, 2.53 K/BB, 1.23 GB/FB
Joba: 9.67 K/9, 2.76 BB/9, 3.50 K/BB, 1.22 GB/FB

Admit it – you almost fell out of your chair when you saw those three numbers, didn’t you? That’s right, Joba had a better K-rate, walked fewer batters, and had a better K/BB ratio. Given that their GB/FB ratios were virtually identical, if that was the only data you had at your fingertips you would say that Joba was the better pitcher, and it wouldn’t even be a tough call. So how in the world were his ERA and WHIP so much worse than Bard’s marks last year? I think I have a rather simple answer.

Bard: .225 BABIP, 15.4 LD-rate
Joba: .343 BABIP, 17.2 LD-rate

Yahtzee. Bard’s BABIP was artificially low while Joba’s was artificially high. That’s obviously a huge piece of this puzzle. We can make the argument that both hurlers also had artificially low line drive marks, but clearly the difference between the LD-rate and the BABIP mark was totally nuts for Bars. The big league average is 20 and .300, yet somehow Chamberlain flew past that to an obnoxious .343 BABIP even though his LD-rate was terrific. It just doesn’t make much sense. If both hurlers maintain their ’10 line drive rate in ’11, you would expect Bard to have a BABIP mark of about .270 and Joba to have a mark of about .290. If the gap does close to .020 points instead of last years .118 spread, you can bet the fantasy performance of both hurlers will be pretty darn close. Oh, and don’t forget that the Red Sox added reliever Bobby Jenks to their bullpen which might mean that Bard wouldn’t be the first choice to close if something were to happen to Jonathan Papelbon. As for the Yankees situation, do you have any doubt that Joba would get the call in the 9th inning if Mariano Rivera went down?

Octavio Dotel: He has certainly seen better days, but the guy still throws hard and knows how to post strikeouts. In fact, his 10.55 K/9 mark in 2010 was his fourth straight year in double digits and just slightly below his career 10.95 mark. Of course, walks are always a concern, more than four per nine in his career, and they were even above that poor mark up at 4.50 last year. Still, when looking for a power arm on the cheap, he is one of the best bets still on the market, so you can understand why he has been linked to the Rays, Blue Jays and Pirates.

Andy Pettitte: It really is starting to sound like Pettitte may indeed hang up his spikes. According to Buster Olney, Pettitte isn’t preparing as he normally would with his offseason training regimen. Even if he were to sign a deal with the Yankees, at this point he’d be weeks behind where he would normally be at physically. The Yankees have to be feeling like that kid who knows he was bad and is somehow holding out hope that Santa will overlook that fact and still bring him a gift on Christmas. As of now, here is the Yankees rotation: CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Phil Hughes and ??? They are nearly to the point of desperation with the only legitimate internal option apparently being Ivan Nova (I’m not buying Sergio Mitre). It’s not a good situation to be in. What is that old say, pitching wins championships? If that is the case, the Yankees are in serious trouble.

Brandon Webb: Last night there was a mystery team added to the mix (Ala the Phillies with the Cliff Lee negotiations). Who is that mystery team? We don’t know other than the club is from the NL Central and that it isn’t the Reds or Brewers. Since everyone already knows the Cubs are interested, that would seem to mean that either the Cardinals, Pirates or Astros are in the mix. Come Wednesday, we now have a second mystery team in the mix according to Webb’s agent Jonathan Maurer. Has there been this much interest in a broken down asset since the housing market crash?

By Ray Flowers