The Value of Jeter

Everyone says Derek Jeter stinks. His range is down, as is his production at the plate, and as a result it seems like everyone, even the New York faithful, have turned on the future Hall of Fame shortstop. What are my thoughts on Jeter including his 2011 fantasy prospects? Before I get to that, let’s review the current situation.

The Negotiations

(1) Jeter is a 36 year old free agent.

(2) The Yankees have offered Jeter a 3-year, $45 million contract.

(3) Jeter apparently wants $23-24 million a year for at least four years. He wouldn’t mind five or six though.

(4) GM Brian Cashman basically told the press that if Jeter doesn’t like the offer he was given he can take his act on the road and try to convince someone else to give him more money.

I will admit that it does seem very odd that Jeter thinks he should get $20 million a year since he is 36 years old, but don’t forget three salient factors, in the form of current Yankees’ players, that are likely weighing on his mind.

A.J. Burnett: This righty, coming off the worst season of his career, will make $16.5 million a year for each of the next three years.

Jorge Posada: The 39 year old catcher/DH will make $13.1 million this year, not a had chunk of change for a guy who will turn 40 during the season and one that has 551 at-bats the past two years.

Alex Rodriguez: He will be 36 in July. Here are his contract totals the next seven years – $31 million, $29 million, $28 million, $25 million, $21 million, $20 million, $20 million.

It’s a difficult hard to fault Jeter for asking what he is when Arod will be making $20 million a year when he is 42 years old, especially considering what Jeter means to the Yankees franchise.

2011 Fantasy Outlook

Jeter is coming off his worst full season since, well, ever. He produced his lowest batting average (.270), tied his career-low in homers (10), had his worst OBP ever (.340) and saw his slugging percentage drop to a laughable level (.370) leading to an OPS of .710, some .127 points below his career mark. So all hope is lost right? Not so fast…

Jeter, hitting atop a loaded Yankees lineup, scored 111 runs. That total not only lead all shortstops, it was tied for fourth best in all of baseball.

Jeter knocked in 67 runs, only nine less than Hanley Ramirez and six more than Stephen Drew.

Jeter stole 18 bases, only four less than Rafael Furcal and one more than Jimmy Rollins.

Add it all up and Jeter had 10 homers, 67 RBI, 111 runs and 18 steals. Do you know how many shortstops in baseball reached all of those figures? Obviously the answer is none because he led shortstops in runs. How about this one – how many players in baseball went 10-65-110-15? The answer is three: Carl Crawford, Carlos Gonzalez and Mr. Jeter.

There are still concerns with Jeter.

He struck out 16.0 percent of the time, a 4-year high. I t was still below his 16.9 percent career mark though.

His line drive rate fell to 16.1 percent. Given that he owns a 20.2 percent mark, and that he had never been below 17.9 percent in a season, I’m gonna give him the benefit of the doubt here.

Still, there are issues.

(1) As a result of the loss in the LD-rate, his BABIP mark was just .307, .049 points below his career mark.

(2) Always a ground ball machine, his GB-rate went through the roof as he posted a 65.7 percent mark in 2010. That’s only a good thing if you are Michael Bourn. If you are Derek Jeter, does it signal that you have lost bat speed resulting in an increasing number of feeble ground balls – and another reason why that line drive rate of his tanked?

So how do I view Jeter in 2011 as a fantasy shortstop? I’m buying. We all know Jeter will return to the Yankees despite all the recent garbage, and I expect he will once again hit at the top of the lineup. Give him a little bit of a bounce back in the batting average category, and a continuation of the rest of his performance, and Jeter is solidly in the top-8 amongst shortstops (see Top-10 SS for 2011), and one that might come at more of a discount than he should since everyone seems to think he is washed up.

By Ray Flowers

Pitchers: Not as Bad as You Thought

I’m going wild about pitching today as I point out a few pitchers who actually pitched better than you may have thought they did during the just completed 2010 season.

Scott Baker had elbow surgery this fall, but he should be fully healthy by the start of Spring Training. Should you care after he posted a 4.49 ERA for the Twins in 2010? Heck yes you should. Baker had a 7.82 K/9 mark, a career best, and though he also posted a 5-year high with a 2.27 BB/9 mark, his K/BB mark was still 3.44. Toss in 148 Ks, and Baker was one of just eight pitchers – eight – in all of baseball to have a 7.80 K/9, 3.40 K/BB, 145 or more K’s and a walk rate under 2.30 per nine. Look at the others on the list: Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, Adam Wainwright, Roy Oswalt, Jered Weaver and Dan Haren.

The eighth guy? He is another hurler I would look to buy low on in 2011, and that is James Shields. There is no way that Shields should once again lead the AL in homers allowed (34), and he certainly won’t allow another BABIP mark of .354, especially considering his career mark is just .316. You also have to factor in that Shields posted a K/9 rate of about a batter better than his career mark of 7.38 at 8.28. Guys with K/9 rates that high who also post a 3.67 K/BB mark just don’t post ERA’s over five very often (Shields was at 5.18). In fact, over the past 11 years, Shields season is one of only two by a hurler with at least an 8.20 K/9 mark, a 3.65 K/BB ratio an an ERA over 5.00. The other season like that was authored by Ricky Nolasco in 2009.

Chris Narveson just barely posted an ERA in the four’s at 4.99 over 37 appearances, including 28 starts. How in the world could he have pitched better than that number looks? Well, things clearly took a turn for the better in the second half of the year as everything simply clicked for Chris. Over his last 14 appearances, all starts, Narveson was 5-3 with a 3.89 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. That’s some seriously strong pitching. He also posted a decent 2.75 K/BB ratio as batters hit just .231 off him over those 81 innings. He’s no ace, but once the draft hits the late rounds next year, don’t forget about this Brewers’ starter.

A.J. Burnett. There, I said it, and now people are running for the exits right? Hear me out before you go pulling the alarm lever.

Burnett was terrible late in the year (3-8, 5.95 ERA over his last 15 starts), but his overall performance, other than a rather precipitous drop in his K/9 rate (6.99 in 2010, 8.23 for his career), really wasn’t awful compared to his career levels. Burnett did lose a mph off his fastball, but he was still throwing it 93 mph, so there likely wasn’t an injury. Secondly, his walk rate was 3.76, which is almost spot on his career mark of 3.78. His 1.21 HR/9 mark was a three year high, but that mark was 1.09 in 2009 and 1.25 in 2007, so it wasn’t that far off his recent performance. His BABIP of .319 was a bit above his career .297 rate, but it was lower than the .328 mark he posted in 2008. His GB/FB ratio was a bit down at 1.20 (career 1.49), but it was better than his ’09 mark (1.09). And for goodness sakes, his line drive rate was a 3-year low (17.6 percent) and the second best mark in six years. Burnett will be an afterthought on draft day 2011, and I’m telling you, he has a chance to produce a nice return on investment if the cost is low enough.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: ALCS Preview

Ray Flowers breaks down the American League Championship Series with a position by position breakdown of the Yankees and the Rangers.

By Ray Flowers

Did You Miss Something?

I came across a note today on Twitter, and if you aren’t following Baseball Guys on Twitter shame on you. Here is the note from the official MLB twitter feed: “Congrats to @Padres closer Heath Bell on 2010 MLB Delivery Man of the Year Award. Converted 47 of 50 save opportunities, MLB-best 94%.” Wait a second, did I miss something? What about the majors saves leader, Brian Wilson? Let’s compare the two relievers from the NL West.

Wilson had 48 saves. Bell had 47.
Wilson had a 1.81 ERA. Bell had a 1.93 ERA.
Wilson had a 1.18 WHIP. Bell had a 1.20 WHIP.
Wilson had a .220 BAA. Bell had a .221 BAA.
Wilson had an 11.21 K/9. Bell had a 11.06 K/9.
Wilson had a 3.13 BB/9. Bell had a 3.60 BB/9.
Wilson had a 3.56 K/BB. Bell had a 3.07 K/BB.
Wilson had a 86.1 LOB%. Bell had a 81.1 LOB%

Am I missing something here? Did they really erase the fact that Wilson was a better pitcher in 2010 and give Bell the award because Wilson had two more blown saves (five to three), or because he had three fewer wins (six to three)? Please tell me they didn’t. You tell me, am I off here? If I am, I just don’t see it.

Cliff Lee is 6-0 with a 1.44 ERA in seven postseason starts. In those starts he has struck out 54 in 56.1 innings while walking just six batters. This season, in two starts against the Rays, he struck out 21 while not walking a single batter in 16 innings.

A.J. Burnett is slated to get a start in the ALCS against the Rangers. He was truly brutal down the stretch with a 1-7 record and 6.61 ERA over the final two months of the year. He also went 4-14 with a 6.48 ERA over the final four months of the season. On the year he went 10-15 with a 5.25 ERA, and that is the worst ERA by any Yankees’ hurler in history who tossed at least 180-innings. In history folks. So why is he starting in the playoffs? It can’t be because he had a 2.50 ERA with 17 Ks in 18 innings this season against the Rangers, can it?

Bryce Harper will see some action in the Arizona Fall League. The 17 year old, he’ll be 18 on Saturday, has been placed on the “taxi squad” of the Scottsdale Scorpions which means he will play two days a week. Despite all the hype and hoopla, Harper is likely two years away from the majors as is, and he will begin the 2011 season in Single-A. More on the phenom can be found at All Nats All the Time.

With Billy Wagner heading into retirement as the most dominant left-handed closer in big league history (I don’t care if he finished his career with two fewer saves than John Franco), the Braves will now turn to a new face in the 9th inning, an it almost certainly will be Craig Kimbrel. If you aren’t in a keeper league and don’t know who this kid is take note – the dude has absolutely filthy stuff. Kimbrel tossed 20.2 innings for the Braves this season positing a 0.44 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP. With an average fastball over 95 mph he struggled with control walking nearly seven batters per nine innings (6.97 per nine). However it’s that heat that makes Kimbrel special, and it led to a K/9 rate this season of 17.42. If you’ve never heard of a mark that high before I understand why – it’s the highest mark in the history of baseball for a pitcher who tossed at least 20-innings in a season. Told you he was someone you need to know for 2011.

By Ray Flowers

Morrow Makes History – Sort Of

Brandon Morrow Strikes Out 17

Out of the cornfields he strode to the mound, his right arm smoldering after warming up in the bullpen. He took the mound, pulled his cap low across his eyes, reared back, and began to dismantle the opposition with some of the filthiest stuff the game is ever seen. He was untouchable, throwing strikes at will. For 8.2 innings not one batter could pick up a hit as Ray after Ray returned to the dugout with his head held low. Evan Longoria broke up the no-hitter with a grounder to the right side of the infield to break up the no-no in the ninth, a mere out from history. Undaunted, the flame throwing righty struck out Dan Johnson on his 137th pitch to end the one hitter. All told the California native struck out 17 batters, walked two batters, allowed just that single hit and obviously didn’t allow a run.

That pitcher is Brandon Morrow.

The strikeouts, one off the Blue Jays team record, were a surprise, but at the same time time Morrow does lead baseball with a 10.67 K/9 mark. He usually struggles with control, his BB/9 mark is 4.03, but clearly we saw yesterday what can happen when he locks in his pitches. Can he continue to throw strikes? That’s a good/open question. There is also the issue of how his arm will rebound from a career-high pitch total. Brandon has only two other games this season with as many as 110 pitches, so the hope is that this big pitch total from yesterday doesn’t weigh him down moving forward. I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Blue Jays have him skip a start, or at best to severely limit his pitch totals the next few times out.

Closer Changes?

It’s that time of year for bullpens. There are a handful of teams that just might be making changes to the backend of their bullpens.

Florida Marlins: Leo Nunez has a 2.91 ERA, 49 Ks and a 4.08 K/BB mark in 46.1 innings. Those numbers are all strong. However, he has blown each of his last two chances and is 26-for-33 in converting saves on the year. Moreover, he has allowed six runs in his last three innings and seven in 5.2 innings. The team hasn’t said they will make a move, but it might be closing in changing things up in the ninth inning. “For now, he’s our closer, but if he doesn’t make an adjustment, we may have to explore other options — maybe do a closer by committee,” Marlins’ manager Edwin Rodriguez said.

Milwaukee Brewers: Trevor Hoffman is three saves from 600, so the Brewers have an interest in helping him to make history before the year is over. He has pitched really well of late – 1.42 ERA over his last 19 appearances – so well in fact that he is now the co-closer with John Axford. “The thing with Hoffman is he’s earned his way back to saving games,” manager Ken Macha said. “That’s not to eliminate Axford from doing things, too, because he’s done nothing to write his name out.” Hoffman’s value goes up, Axford’s obviously goes down.

Washington Nationals: Drew Storen, the Nats closer of the future, isn’t quite ready to take over the closer reigns right now. “”For me, he is kind of a work in progress,” manager Jim Riggleman said. “He is showing flashes of a really fine guy at the back end of the bullpen — closer potentially.” Look for Storen, Sean Burnett and Tyler Clippard to share work in the 9th inning until one emerges.

Injury Notes

Andrew Bailey (rib/side) will likely miss at least another week more.

Daric Barton (shoulder) was forced from the game on Sunday. It is unclear if he will require a DL stint.

Gordon Beckham (groin) might end up missing a few days, though the injury isn’t thought to be serious.

A.J. Burnett (back) should be able to make his next start on Tuesday.

Eric Chavez (back/neck) is considering retirement.

Dustin Pedroia (foot) hopes he can return in about 10 days.

Alex Gordon (heel) says he is improving. Will continue to play through it.

Carlos Guillen (calf) has been activated from the DL.

Kyle Lohse (forearm) will make at least one more start in the minors.

Kris Medlen (elbow) will wait one more week before deciding if he needs Tommy John surgery.

Alex Rodriguez (shin) returned to action on Sunday for the Yankees.

Jason Varitek (foot) took BP on Sunday. There is still no timetable for his return.

Vernon Wells (toe) will undergo more tests on Monday after he injured his toe making a wonderful catch on Sunday trying to help Morrow to a no-hitter.

Jack Wilson (hand) had a fall at home and broke the fifth metacarpal bone in his right hand. He’ll be placed on the DL.

Notable Transactions

The Braves purchased the contract of Mike Minor.

The Giants will promote Emmanuel Burriss on Monday.

The Mariners will promote Chris Woodward on Monday.

The Orioles sent Troy Patton to the minors.

The Phillies sent John Mayberry to minors.

The Dodgers designated for assignment Garret Anderson and purchased the contract of Jay Gibbons.

The Tigers sent Will Rhymes to the minors when they activated Carlos Guillen.

The Nationals sent Collin Balester to the minors and recalled Jason Marquis.

Prospect Watch

The Athletics will call up Chris Carter, and Jeff Larish for that matter, on Monday. Carter has 27 bombs and 89 RBI at Triple-A this season, and those numbers go along nicely with his totals of the last two years: 38 HRs, 104 RBI and 28 HRs, 115 RBI last year. The kid can slug it, and with the injury to Daric Barton, Carter just might get the chance to play every day in Oakland.

By Ray Flowers

The Evil Empire

“You don’t know the power of the dark side!” If you haven’t been living on a desert island for the past, oh, 30 years, you know that this is a quite from Darth Vader of Star Wars fame. If you don’t know who he is, I truly feel sorry for you, but sufficed to say that he is the leader of the “evil” side in the battle for the universe, and helps to patrol over the dominion of the “Evil Empire.” Taking a page from this saga, Red Sox President Larry Lucchoino in 2002 deemed the Yankees “The Evil Empire” for their propensity to spend whatever it cost to put together the best team money can buy. This has been the case basically for the past 15 years, and it continues to be a massive question that needs to be addressed if the idea of competitive balance is at the core of what major league baseball really want to address (currently there is no salary cap, only a luxury tax). Consider the following three points.

1- The Yankees 40-man payroll in 2009 cost over $215 million. The next highest team was the other one from New York, the Mets, and their payroll was “only” $141 million (these totals are from an article by Jayson Stark).

2- The difference between the Yankees and the Mets, some $74 million, is more than the entire payroll of nine teams.

3- If you add up the payrolls of the Marlins, Padres, Pirates and Athletics those four teams come in at less than $190 million, or $25 million less than the Yankees.

Obviously the Yankees spending is a huge problem, one that threatens to ruin the game in my opinion if left unchecked, but the point of the article by Mr. Stark was that there is something fishing going on here. Distilling his piece down into one sentence, here is what we get:

Major league teams pocket $80 million before they sell a single ticket because of revenue sharing, radio and television money, and the central fund.

This raises the obvious question. If major league baseball is a $6 billion dollar a year business, and teams do in fact receive $80 million a year before selling a single ticket, how is it possible that 12 teams failed to have a payroll of $80 million in 2009? Here is the explanation of MLB’s chief labor negotiator, Rod Manfred. “You need to understand that these teams have expenses in addition to the 25-man roster on the field…They have the cost of their player-development system, which averages $15 million [per team] a year. They have the cost of acquiring [amateur] players through the [June] draft and internationally, which averages $9 million [per team] a year.” While that might all be true, the $80 million figure listed above does not include ticket sales, parking, sponsorships, souvenirs etc. With all that extra do coming in, is there really a reason that any team shouldn’t be able to spend $80 million on payroll?

After all of that Mr. Stark says that we shouldn’t blame the Yankees because at least they take that money and shove it back into their payroll. However, what does a team like the Marlins, who had the lowest payroll in baseball at under $40 million, do with all that extra dough? Honestly, a team like the Marlins just might be out-profiting clubs that spend three times as much money, even if their ticket sales are rather diminutive.

In the end I still hate the Yankees, and the fact that they simply try to buy championships. But this is a free market society, and a free market game, so you can’t blame them for taking advantage of the rules. However, if you are a Marlins fan, you might want to ask your team where that extra $40 million dollars is going because it clearly isn’t being invested in the on the field product.

By Ray Flowers

Brotherly Love? Not so Much

“I can’t wait for it to end,” Cole Hamels said after the a Game 3 loss to the Yankees in the World Series. “It’s been mentally draining. At year’s end, you just can’t wait for a fresh start.” Those comments obviously were certainly pretty shocking, and they certainly didn’t endear Mr. Hamels with his teammates. In fact, Brett Myers, never one to avoid a melee (he was reportedly seen physically abusing his wife a few years back in Boston though charges were eventually dropped), confronted Hamels before Game 5 when an altercation ensued after Myers was heard to say “What are you doing here? I thought you quit.”

I thought these guys played for the City of Brotherly Love?

(A subsequent report says that the confrontation was “fake” and that the two hurlers remain close friends)

As a result, Hamels has lots of explaining to do (I just had an I Love Lucy flashback). He tried to start the process with the following statement. “Sometimes I might not say the best things or the smartest things, but I’ve learned and am learning. I wasn’t able to sleep the past couple of nights because of it.” Neither was I Cole, but it wasn’t because I sounded like a buffoon, it was because of this new pillow I got that seems to be just a tad too poffy to allow me to really get into the groove to get my sleep on. But I digress.

I don’t know what’s been going on in Hamels head, but clearly his performance this season has suffered – substantially. After winning 29 games the past two seasons with and ERA of 3.22, Hamels struggled along in the regular season to a 10-11 mark with a 4.32 ERA. Even worse than those regular season struggles though has been his continued misadventures in these playoffs. Hamels is 1-2 with a 7.58 ERA through four starts this post-season, this after a playoff run last season that saw him take home the NLCS (2-0, 1.93 ERA, 1.14 WHIP) and World Series (1-0, 2.77 ERA, 1.00 WHIP) MVP awards.

Clearly Hamels hasn’t been at his best, and for a guy who has probably dominated nearly every batter he faced over the first 20 years of his life, one can imagine it has been rather difficult for him to find a way to deal with the struggles this year. Still, that’s no excuse for being an idiot when talking to the press. I’ve written it before, and here it is again; if you are a pro athlete never let your guard down, and do your best to give “yes” and “no” answers if at all possible. The more elucidation you offer, the more willing you are to simply “be real” with the press, the more likely you are to emerge looking like a moron. Keep your mouth shut and stick to doing what you do best – playing your sport.

WORLD SERIES NOTES

Chase Utley has tied Reggie Jackson’s record of five home runs in a single World Series.

A.J. Burnett’s failures in Game 2 (six earned runs in two innings), besides being his worst start as a Yankee, was also the first time that the Yankees’ starter hadn’t gone at least six innings in the playoffs. In five playoff appearances, Burnett is 1-1 with a 5.27 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP.

Ryan Howard has struck out 12 times in the Series to tie Willie Wilson’s mark from the 1980 Series.

Andy Pettitte will start Game 6 on short rest. In five previous post-season appearances on short rest Pettitte is 3-1 with a 2.88 ERA. Overall in his playoff career Pettitte has made 39 starts going 17-9 with a 3.88 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP over 243.1 innings.

Only six of the 43 teams that have been down three games to one in the Series have come back to win, the last being the 1985 KC Royals which I mentioned yesterday. The Phillies need two more wins to be the seventh.

By Ray Flowers