Fantasy Baseball – FAAB Report, Wk.4

Oh those injuries. They can be a killer in fantasy baseball. Unfortunately, they are a fact of life. Injuries will happen. You have to able to adapt and work around that. Truthfully, these 2-3 week fill-in’s you add to your club will go a long way to determining whether or not you are in contention in September. Choose wisely young padawan.

TOUT WARS (15 team mixed): Just so you know that you aren’t the only one dealing with injuries, here are the players on my club that are currently on the disabled list: Zack Greinke, Joel Hanrahan, Cameron Maybin, Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez. And there are only 27 players rostered in this league, so that’s a pretty good chunk of them. So this week I had to make a couple of moves. I added Eric Sogard ($1) to take over for Ruben Tejada since I cannot afford to have a guy who is day-to-day given all my other injuries. I also added Jeremy Guthrie on the hill. I’m not expecting him to remain the hurler has been so far, but I will also note that since he joined the Royals last season, he’s been more effective than he should be (7-3, 3/32 ERA, 1.15 WHIP in 116.2 IP). I also added two start hurler Mike Leake (at home versus the Cubs and on the road versus the Nationals).

Notable bids: Edward Mujica ($19), Wade Davis ($7), Travis Snider ($6) and Jorge De La Rosa ($5).

LABR (12 team, AL-only): Here we go again. With the injuries I mean. Sergio Santos, Jeff Niemann and Michael Pineda are on the DL. I was able to make a move this week to add an arm to cover for Santos. I was the lucky, or unlucky depending how you look at it, winner of Aaron Harang for ($7). I know, I know, but sometimes you have to go for it in leagues that are this deep. With Joe Blanton and Ubaldo Jimenez really struggling, I had to take a shot on another starting arm.

Notable bids: Luis Jimenez ($13), Corey Kluber ($5), Brandon Laird ($4), Oswaldo Arcia ($4) and Allen Webster ($3 though he has since been demoted)

FSTA (13 team mixed): Back up the injury train cause Ray is ready to be the conductor! The following players are on the DL: Hanley Ramirez, Joel Hanrahan, Shaun Marcum, Sean Marshall and Sergio Santos (Kevin Youkilis and Asdrubal Cabrera are both injured too). I added Eric Sogard, noticing a theme here?, for $19. I really would have rather had Eric Young Jr. but I needed the help up the middle more than in the outfield (my bid on EYJ was $18, the same as the winning bid). I also came up short on Mujica (my bid was $77) so I ended up with David Hernandez ($17), and elite setup man who would likely excel if something were to happen to J.J. Putz. By the way, I’m the Putz owner in this league, so I gave myself a bit of a shelter. As I always say, be proactive with middle relievers. This week Hernandez costs less than $20. If Putz were to blow his arm out, he’d likely go for $200 or more next week.

Notable bids: Edward Mujica ($267), Tony Cingrani ($185), Didi Gregorius ($121), Anthony Rendon ($71), Garrett Richards ($56) and Andrew Cashner ($44).

SIRIUSXM EXPERTS (12 team mixed): Hanley Ramirez was going to be my ace at shortstop this season. For now, that plan is on hold. Luckily I have Martin Prado to fill in (he’s shortstop eligible in this league… even though he didn’t play 20 games there last season). With Andrelton Simmons struggling, I felt like I needed to do something up the middle. Luckily, Neil Walker was released, a huge mistake if you ask me. I likely overspent to get him, $37 of my $100, but I think he’s a top-10 second base option and with my weakness up the middle, I went for it.

Notable bids: Andrew Bailey ($24), Edward Mujica ($16), Carlos Marmol ($7), John Buck ($5) and Ross Detwiler ($5).

SIRIUSXM LISTENER LG (11 team mixed): This is the only league with an open waiver-wire, and I need it with the following fellas on the DL: Michael Saunders, Ryan Zimmerman, Jose Reyes and Joel Hanrahan. Oh, I also had Cameron Maybin hit the DL this past week, and with all the injuries I have, and the chance that his wrist issue keeps him out longer than 15 days, I felt like I had to make a move so I moved on from Maybin for Will Venable (I would like to hold Maybin in an ideal world, but I just have too many injuries right now to do that). I was also quick to the waiver-wire last Monday as I added Edward Mujica to bolster my bullpen.

K-BAD (12 team mixed): Chris Getz is hitting under .250 and hadn’t stolen a base. Time to drop him (he was added cause Hanley Ramirez was DL’d then his MI replacement, Gordon Beckham, was also placed on the DL). I added Eric Sogard for $12 (out of $1,000. I bid $14 on Crawford, but as you can see another was more sold on the hot start than I was. I still think this hot start is just a hot start. Don’t love the skills). I wasn’t able to get Mujica (my bid was $77), but I rostered Joaquin Benoit instead ($42). Didn’t have room for Drew Smyly, but I really wish I did since it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see him inserted into that Tigers’ rotation soon since Rick Porcello continues to stink.

Notable bids: Anthony Rendon ($188), Tony Cingrani ($160), Edward Mujica ($133), Peter Bourjos ($100), Brandon Crawford ($50).

FANBALL (13 team mixed): In this $100 FAAB league, I failed to get Andrew Bailey ($17), but I was able to emerge with Edward Mujica ($16). Might turn out for the best cause I’m not certain Bailey is going to keep the closing job once Joel Hanrahan is healthy. I wasn’t getting much out of Kelly Johnson up the middle so I took the plunge on rookie/potential phenom Anthony Rendon ($4). Rendon doesn’t have much power to speak of, but he’s got an excellent approach and cap rap liners out with the best of them. It remains to be seen how long he will be in the daily lineup. He’s got two weeks, with Ryan Zimmerman on the DL, to prove he belongs.

Notable bids: Andrew Bailey ($25), Brandon Crawford ($9), Chris Johnson ($9), Lucas Duda ($5).

To see how others are evaluating players don’t forget to go to Fleaflicker.com where you can check out the owned percentages of all your favorite players.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Hyun-Jin Ryu

Normally in my Player Profile series I like to write about players who are being over drafted because of unwarranted hype, or I focus on players that can be hidden gems of production because people are underestimating their value. Today I’ll do something different. I’ll write up a player who has never thrown an official inning as a professional baseball player in North America…

WHO AM I?

Hyun-Jin Ryu is a 25 year old left-handed hurler from Korea (he’ll be 26 on March 25th). The Dodgers believe that he’s a viable option for their starting rotation, and backing up their belief they shelled out a six year deal for $36 million to attain his services. The Dodgers also had to pay just over $25 million with the posting fee to obtain the rights to sign Ryu, so they’ve invested nearly $62 million dollars in the guy for the next six years. So who is this Ryu and why did the Dodgers spend so much money to acquire a guy who looks an awful lot like a fourth starter?

CAREER ABROAD

Ryu started his professional career in the Korean Baseball Organization in 2006. He was excellent going 18-6 with a 2.23 ERA and 204 punchouts in 201.2 innings and he became the first player to win ROY and MVP in the same season. He then tossed another 200+ innings while winning 17 games with 178 Ks in his second season. In 2008 Ryu competed in the Beijing Olympics including throwing 8.1 innings in the Gold Medal winning game for South Korea. On the downside, Ryu failed to toss 200-innings each season from 2008-2012, but he was an effective arm throughout. Here are his career KBO numbers (he was an All-Star every one of his seven seasons):

98-52, 2.80 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 8.78 K/9, 3.23 K/BB ratio over 1,269 innings
If a pitcher posts those numbers in the big leagues we have a name for him – it’s Adam Wainwright. But those numbers were compiled in the KBO, hardly a league that offers up the same level of competition as major league baseball. That leaves open the question of how his skills will translate to the majors.

* Ryu had Tommy John surgery while he was in high school, so hopefully we won’t have to be worrying about his elbow blowing up, though as we have seen pitchers sometimes do need to have the procedure done twice (think Brian Wilson and Joakim Soria).

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

SCOUTING REPORT

Ryu throws his fastball anywhere from 88-92 mph. He also throws an assortment of slow, and slower, off speed pitches. Given his build, he’s not going to be on the cover of Muscle & Fitness anytime soon, and manager Don Mattingly likened him to David Wells (he’s 6’2” and reported to camp weighing a whopping 255 lbs. which raised some eyebrows, especially when he was having trouble with some of the conditioning work – more on that below). It should also be noted that the baseball is a bit slicker in North America, so that will take some time to get acclimated, and Sandy Koufax worked with Ryu a bit on alternating the grip on his curve ball a bit to help with the transition.

2013 OUTLOOK

The Dodgers have a bunch of options than can turn to in their rotation. Obviously they didn’t lavish millions on Ryu to use him out of the pen, or to send him to the minors, so you have to think he’s going to be part of the mix. My best guess on how the rotation is going to play out follows.

The Locks
Clayton Kershaw
Zack Greinke
Josh Beckett

Almost Certainly In
Hyun-Jin Ryu

Left to Battle for the 5th Spot
Ted Lilly (who I wrote about in Rounding the Bases)
Chad Billingsley
Chris Capuano
Aaron Harang

Obviously the Dodgers have a bounty of arms, and it’s very likely that once they settle on the unit that a couple of these arms will be dealt to shore up other spots on the club.

If I had to guess what type of effort Ryu will offer this season I’d say that he’s appropriately slotted as the 4th starter for the Dodgers. It remains to be seen how Ryu will adapt to American culture, the minor change with the ball and the change in training methods (he famously had some issues with his first training session in camp as he struggled to complete his work. “I realized today that in America, when they do long-distance running, they run really fast,” he said.). There is also the fact that he hasn’t thrown 200 innings since the 2007 season. I’d think that Paul Maholm‘s 2012 effort (13-11, 3.67 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 140 Ks) would be the high water mark for what your expectations should be for Ryu this year, but even that is likely being far too rosie in the old prediction department. I’d let someone else draft Ryu. It would be a big time shock if he emerged as an All-Star caliber player this season so he’s best left for the reserve rounds in mixed leagues. Don’t reach.

• Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Fantasy Beat: It’s Trading Season

Justin Fensterman and Trevor Ray discuss trades they have recently made. They discuss reasons for trading at this junction of the season, reasons to for trade players or trade away players and much more. They discuss Johan Santana, Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols, Giancarlo Stanton, Yoenis Cespedes, Jonathan Broxton, Aaron Harang.

Listen to the Audio.

Hot Stove: December 6th, 2011

Things are really heating up at the Winter Meetings, and it appears that the Marlins are plenty serious about being the story to emerge from the festivities. But before I get to that, we had a couple of deals take place in the last 24 hours as pitchers are the target of seemingly every team.

Sergio Santos was an excellent bullpen arm for the White Sox last year. After every other White Sox bullpen arm was seemingly given a shot to handle 9th ining duties, Santos stepped up and solidified the role on his way to 30 saves in 36 chances. He walks too many batters, 4.12 per nine innings last year, but it’s easy to forgive that when you look over at the K/9 column and see 13.07. Santos signed a deal with the White Sox that will pay him only $8.25 million the next three years, though there are three other team options after that for $6 million, $8 million and $8.75 million (basically his team has him under control for 6-years at a cost of about $31 million). That “cheap” cost made him an excellent option to deal for the White Sox, and they did just that Tuesday sending him to the Blue Jays for minor leaguer Nestor Molina (there is no truth to the rumor that he is related to Nestor The Long Eared Christmas Donkey). White Sox fans will be furious at this deal since Molina is likely a couple of years away from being a major player, but after a year at Single and Double-A in which he posted a 12-3 record, 2.21 ERA 10.22 K/9 an a stupendous 9.25 K/BB mark, the future is bright for the  22 year old righty.

Kevin Slowey is someone I’ve long been in the corner of (check out the Player Profile I wrote back on March 28th, 2011). However, two issues have precluded him from reaching the heights that I think he can. (1) The guy just can’t stay healthy. In two of the last three seasons he’s failed to reach 100-innings. (2) He gives up way too many fly balls (48 percent of batted balls in his career), and they leave the yard at a near crippling rate (1.42 homers per nine innings). Therefore, the Rockies move to deal for him makes little sense to me. The Rockies think he can be a solid #4 or #5 starter, but given the enviornment in Colorado Slowey seems like a horrible addition given his long ball woes.

Aaron Harang had a decent season with the Padres going 14-7 with a 3.64 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. However, the San Diego born righty, who also went to San Diego State, wasn’t able to work out a deal with the Padres. No matter, He’ll end up merely needing to rent a U-Haul truck to move his stuff to Los Angeles after he agreed to a 2-year deal with the Dodgers ($12 million).

Albert Pujols is the best hitter in baseball, and the Marlins and the Cardinals are the two teams bidding most heavily for his services. Reports are circulating, including one by Bob Nightingale, that the Marlins have extended an offer to Pujols worth more than $200 million. The Cardinals are still in the mix, but it’s growing more likely by the minute that Pujols’ decision won’t have to be about one team outspending the other, it will be about where he wants to play for the next decade.

Andrew Bailey is on the market, though the Athletics asking price is apparently so high that Bailey may as well not be available. So far it seems like one of those situation where the A’s are saying ‘if you overpay we’ll give him to you’ but few teams seems willing to meet the exorbinant price the A’s are asking for in return for their often dominating closer who is under their control through 2014.

Jimmy Rollins was thought to be almost as good as gone from the Phillies 36 hours ago. There is now some growing optimism that he could return, though it still seems like the club is unwilling to go 5-years on a deal like Rollins wants. If the Phils are unable to come to an agreement they will look to add Aramis Ramirez while at the same time moving Placido Polanco to free up some cash. If Rollins returns, look for the Phils to go with Polanco as their third baseman and pass on Ramirez.

By Ray Flowers

2011 Pitching Review: Starters – Hits

Pitching is the variable that we all struggle with from season to season. Predicting any players future performance based on the past is always filled with uncertainty, and only good detective work can get us close to predicting something that we really can’t predict with 100 percent accuracy. That quest for prediction perfection is even more difficult when it comes to pitchers than it is with hitters. That’s just the nature of the beast. Therefore, don’t be too hard on anyone who makes a mistake or two along the way – it’s just not that easy to do.

Back in March I posted my Top-100 Starting Pitchers article. In PART I I’ll discuss some of my “hits” while saving my “misses” for Part II.

NOTE: Please remember that while some of these “calls” seem obvious, they really weren’t back in March of 2011.

HITS

Clayton Kershaw (#7): The NL’s Triple Crown winner tied Ian Kennedy for the league lead with 21 victories, posted a major league best 2.28 ERA, and whiffed 248 batters, just two behind Justin Verlander for the major league lead. He was everything we all knew he could be, an at just 23 years old, it’s scary to think that Kershaw could repeat this effort for years to come.

James Shields (#24): I took a lot of heat for putting Shields in my top-25 after he went 13-15 with a 5.18 ERA for the Rays in 2010. Consider me vindicated. Shields pitched more innings (249.1) at greater effect than he had at any point in his career. Shields led baseball with 11 complete games (only Roy Halladay had more than six, he finished with eight), and his four shutouts tied Derek Holland for the AL lead. Shields also finished third in the AL in ERA (2.82) and strikeouts (225) and was fifth in WHIP (1.04). Spectacular.

Josh Beckett (#26): I wrote all about why Beckett would rebound in Is Josh Beckett Finished? Did you read the article and buy into what I was selling?

Clay Buchholz (#52): I warned everyone to be careful with Clay who was being over drafted because he was a Red Sox and because he posted a sterling 2.33 ERA in 2010. His ERA was still solid at 3.48 and his WHIP of 1.29 wasn’t bad at all, it just wasn’t good enough considering where he was drafted by some (not to mention that injuries limited him to just 82.2 innings).

Scott Baker (#53): He was everything I said he would be this year for the Twins. Baker had a career best 8.22 K/9 mark which led to a career best tying 3.88 K/BB ratio, and some sterling ratios (3.14 ERA and 1.17 WHIP). Unfortunately the injury bug struck once again as he was limited to just 23 appearances, 21 starts, leading to only 134.2 innings.

Jordan Zimmerman (#54): The skills were on full display this year with only the Nationals innings pitched limit, he was coming back from Tommy John surgery, to slow him down. Jordan had a 3.18 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and superb 4.00 K/BB ratio because he simply refused to issue a free pass. He’s good enough to have a whole bunch of efforts like this one.

Bud Norris (#72): He made 30 starts for the first time in his career (31 actually), and posted 176 Ks in the process. His WHIP also came down to 1.33 as he cut a full batter off his walk rate getting it down to nearly the league average at 3.39. I’m considering him a “hit” even though he won just six games because his ERA went down a run, his BB/9 down 1.12, his WHIP was down 0.15 and his innings went up 33.2 from 2010.

Justin Masterson (#76): This guy owns a nice combo of strikeout/ground ball stuff, the ideal makeup for a starting pitcher. He threw a career best 216 innings leading to a career-high 12 victories, and even though his K/9 fell to a career worst 6.58 causing some trepidation, he cut nearly a batter off his walk rate leading to his first K/BB ratio better than two at 2.43. He also keep the grounders coming, 55.1 percent of batted balls, and should be in line for a long and successful career.

Tim Stauffer (#78), Aaron Harang (#82): You can find my season ending review of both of these guys in Pitcher Profiles: 2011 Review.

By Ray Flowers

Pitcher Profiles: 2011 Review

I like to hold myself accountable, and I started that process yesterday when I took a look at my thoughts about a handful of hitters that I profiled in depth. Today, I’ll continue that process by taking a look at the pitchers I reviewed at the beginning of the 2011 season.

In the section of my website titled PLAYER PROFILES, you can find all the 2011 Player Reviews I wrote. In the piece today I’ll review my recommendations. While you can review the whole reports if you click on the link above, I’ll truncate things today by quoting only a section of my reviews (in italics), before giving my thoughts on how things turned out.

NOTE: I will grade myself on the scale of single, double, triple, home run

To see my review of the hitters click on the link to Player Profiles: 2011 Review.

Aaron Harang: 14-7, 3.64 ERA, 124 Ks, 1.37 WHIP in 170.2 IP
“At this point Harang should be viewed as nothing more than a solid depth starter in mixed leagues because he still has to prove he can effectively take the ball 30 times before you should think about going all in with him. Still, the early returns are positive and it’s very difficult to envision a scenario in which he shouldn’t be rostered in a 12 team mixed league.”

Harang didn’t make 30 starts though he got close with 28. His ERA was as good as his heyday (it was 3.83, 3.76 and 3.73 from 2005-07), and his WHIP was two hundredths off his career mark of 1.37. He also won 14 games, the third highest total of his career. His K-rate was down nearly a full batter though at 6.54 per nine (career 7.37). He had a solid season, thanks in no small part to Petco Park.
TRIPLE

Kevin Slowey: 0-8, 6.67 ERA, 34 Ks, 1.40 WHIP in 59.1 IP
“At this point it looks like Slowey will need an injury, or trade out of Minnesota, to become a mixed league option in 2011. As such, he is nothing more than a late round gamble since he could conceivably end up making 50 appearances out of the bullpen this year.”

A total failure because of injuries. Slowey only started eight games for the Twinkies, and though he did some nice things such as posting a terrific 6.80 K/BB ratio, pretty much every other facet of his game blew chunks.
SINGLE

Rafael Betancourt: 2-0, 2.89 ERA, 73 Ks, 0.87 WHIP in 62.1 IP
“… if your weapon of choice is an NL-only league, then you’ve found a bullpen ace to target in Betancourt.”

Betancourt took over as the closer late in the year for the Rockies as Huston Street was once again injured (Rafael ended the year with eight saves). Just how good was Rafael this year? He was probably the best pitcher in baseball after the All-Star break.

2nd half: 0.33 ERA, 0.30 WHIP, 13.00 K/9, 39.00 K/BB

Also, like I wrote about in The Strikeout: Relievers back in February, Betancourt is now the only pitcher in the history of the game, THE ONLY ONE, with a 9.50 K/9 mark an a 4.35 K/BB ratio in more than 500 career innings (9.64 K/9, 4.65 K/BB in 560 IP).
HOME RUN

Tim Stauffer: 9-12, 3.73 ERA, 128 Ks, 1.25 WHIP in 185.2 IP
“Will Stauffer be a mixed league option in 2011? He might be if he is given 30 starts, but that doesn’t mean I would go all in on him. Conversely, I do think he is a strong option in NL-only leagues while at the same time being someone you can consider rostering in deep mixed leagues in the reserve rounds.”

He really limped to the finish line frustrating many owners, but overall Stauffer was as good as advertised for the Padres. He eclipsed his career-high in innings pitched by 103, but still match his career marks in ERA (3.73 in 2011, 3.92 for his career), WHIP (1.25 and 1.31) and K/9 (6.20 and 6.17) while bettering his career GB/FB (1.82 and 1.50) and walk rate (2.57 per nine, 3.03 for his career).
HOME RUN

Josh Beckett: 13-7, 2.89 ERA, 175 Ks, 1.03 WHIP in 193 IP
I could sit here and tell you I was right, and I was spot on with Beckett. Do yourself a favor though and read the piece to show you why a little good detective work by yours truly should have given you all the confidence in the world with Beckett for 2011 – Is Josh Beckett Finished?
HOME RUN

Rafael Soriano: 2-3, 4.12 ERA, 8.24 K/9, 1.30 WHIP in 39.1 IP
“In three of last eight seasons Soriano didn’t even toss 15 innings… Someone is going to end up with one hell of a reliever. The only question is will he be able to stay healthy long enough to reward that team for their investment in his golden arm?”

Soriano made his 15 innings, but not by a hell of a lot. Once again, The Brittle One was beset by injuries that limited his innings on the bump. Unlike the recent past though, his performance suffered even when he was on the hill (his K/9 rate fell from a 9.49 career mark, and he walked 4.12 batters per nine versus a 2.82 career mark per nine). The Yankees overpaid for an injured hurler who failed to live up to expectations when on the field.
DOUBLE

By Ray Flowers

2011 Player Profile: Aaron Harang

Photo by Adam Sonnett

I get questions all day about players, and one I’m constantly fielding queries about is Aaron Harang of the Padres. Since I can’t write what I need to in 140 characters on Twitter, and so as to save myself having to answer the same question in email 13 times, here are my thoughts on the righty.

First off, don’t let anyone tell you I’m a Johnny Come Lately with Harang as I had him ranked 82nd amongst all starting pitchers coming into 2011. It’s not just that I had him there, ahead of many others, it should also be noted that I specifically denoted him as a pitcher I would target late. Why did I feel that way? There were three main reasons.

(1) Harang appeared to be healthy after struggling for a couple of seasons to stay on the field.

(2) He was moving home, he was born in San Diego, to pitch in the best park in the majors for pitchers.

(3) He really wasn’t as bad the past few years as most people seemed to think.

Points #1 and #2 are self explanatory, and if you think #2 is poppy cock, here is what I think of you – you’re confused. Think about it. Do you feel more at ease when you have that first date at your place where you can control the temperature, the food, the wine and the ambiance OR do you feel more comfortable going to your dates house hoping that he/she has a clean bathroom you could use if you have to go? Exactly.

As for his work on the field, here is a brief history of Harang’s accomplishments.

From 2002-04 he was finding his footing in the bigs.

In 2005 he had his first 200-inning season winning 11 games with a 3.83 ERA and 1.27 WHIP.

In 2006 he won 16 games, had 216 Ks, posted a 3.76 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP over 234.1 innings.

In 2007 he posted a nearly identical effort to ’06: 16 wins, 218 Ks, 3.73 ERA, 1.14 WHIP over 231.2 innings.

In 2008 things fell apart as he went 6-17 with a 4.78 ERA and in 2009 he was nearly as bad (6-14, 4.21 ERA). Last year things were even worse as he posted a 5.32 ERA and 1.59 WHIP over 111.2 innings. Given that work from 2008-10, how could I possibly state above that he really wasn’t that bad a hurler last year? Here’s how.

From 2008-2010 Harang made 78 appearances. Even though his ratios were horrible, 4.71 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP, while his record was abysmal at 18-36, there was some good just below the surface. Honestly.

Harang posted a 7.40 K/9 mark which was better than the big league average of 7.12 in that time.

Harang walked a mere 2.57 guys per nine innings from 2008-10, well below the big league mark in that time of 3.44.

It’s only two categories I know, but the point is that even though he really struggled the past three years, there were still a few reasons not to abandon ship.

Third, always a homer prone hurler, Harang moved from a park that was second best for home run hitters the past three years (Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati) to Petco in San Diego – the hardest park to go deep in according to Park Indices.

So far, so good.

2011 OUTLOOOK

3-0, 1.50 ERA, 16 K, 0.94 WHIP in 18 IP

Harang has started off white hot. The Ks have been there – 8.00 per nine – and as expected he has (a) limited the walks allowing just 2.50 per nine and (b) avoided the dreaded long ball (zero homers allowed). Obviously Harang will not be able to keep up his current pace for the duration of the year, but there is little reason to think that he shan’t once again be a viable starter in mixed leagues.  At this point Harang should be viewed as nothing more than a solid depth starter in mixed leagues because he still has to prove he can effectively take the ball 30 times before you should think about going all in with him. Still, the early returns are positive and it’s very difficult to envision a scenario in which he shouldn’t be rostered in a 12 team mixed league.

By Ray Flowers

Top-100 Starting Pitchers

Earlier this week I released the 2011 Pitcher Capsules in a wonderful collaborative effort with PaulSporer.com. Unlike hitters where I broke down everything you need to know in my 2011 Hitter Capsules, I didn’t have any input in terms of pitchers in the above linked guide. Therefore, I thought I would share with you my personal rankings for starting pitchers.

Pitchers in bold are hurlers I would target. I’ll also give some general thoughts at the end of the rankings.

TOP-100 STARTERS

1 Roy Halladay
2 Felix Hernandez
3 Tim Lincecum
4 CC Sabathia
5 Cliff Lee
6 Jon Lester
7 Clayton Kershaw
8 Josh Johnson
9 Justin Verlander
10 Dan Haren
11 Cole Hamels
12 Jered Weaver
13 Roy Oswalt
14 Tommy Hanson
15 Mat Latos
16 Ubaldo Jimenez
17 Yovani Gallardo
18 Chad Billingsley
19 Max Scherzer
20 David Price
21 Wandy Rodriguez
22 Zack Greinke
23 Francisco Liriano
24 James Shields
25 Ryan Dempster
26 Josh Beckett
27 Matt Cain
28 Chris Carpenter
29 Ricky Nolasco
30 Brett Anderson
31 Jonathan Sanchez
32 Ricky Romero
33 Brandon Morrow
34 Ted Lilly
35 Shaun Marcum
36 Matt Garza
37 C.J. Wilson
38 Colby Lewis
39 John Danks
40 Hiroki Kuroda
41 Tim Hudson
42 John Lackey
43 Johnny Cueto
44 Phil Hughes
45 Daniel Hudson
46 Madison Bumgarner
47 Gavin Floyd
48 Edinson Volquez
49 Brett Myers
50 Trevor Cahill
51 Jaime Garcia
52 Clay Buchholz
53 Scott Baker
54 Jordan Zimmerman
55 Ian Kennedy
56 Jake Peavy
57 Brian Matusz
58 Jonathan Niese
59 James McDonald
60 Ervin Santana
61 Gio Gonzalez
62 Carlos Zambrano
63 Jhouyls Chacin
64 Jeremy Hellickson
65 Clayton Richard
66 Jorge De La Rosa
67 Jair Jurrjens
68 Carl Pavano
69 A.J. Burnett
70 Edwin Jackson
71 Javier Vazquez
72 Bud Norris
73 Brett Cecil
74 Mike Pelfrey
75 Fausto Carmona
76 Justin Masterson
77 Anibal Sanchez
78 Tim Stauffer
79 Jake Westbrook
80 Travis Wood
81 Bronson Arroyo
82 Aaron Harang
83 Jeff Neimann
84 J.A. Happ
85 Wade Davis
86 Dallas Braden
87 Mark Buehrle
88 Randy Wolf
89 Randy Wells
90 Homer Bailey
91 Joe Blanton
92 Barry Zito
93 Kyle Drabek
94 Rick Porcello
95 Michael Peneda
96 Daisuke Matsuzaka
97 Carl Pavano
98 R.A. Dickey
99 Mike Minor
100 Derek Lowe

* I see a lot of talent in the 25 to 40 range on this list which leads me to think that you don’t have to reach for starting pitching this year. Wait, I say that all the time. Trust me, if you go into a standard mixed league with a staff of Beckett, Nolasco, Anderson and Lilly – your going to have a darn solid pitching staff.

* I have Clay Buchholz at #52, and I know many will disagree with that. I see a guy who had an ERA of 2.33 last year though he likely should have had a mark at least a run higher. He gets grounders at a nice clip, but he doesn’t strike many out, walks batters at the big league average, and was exceedingly lucky with both his LOB% (79.0) and his HR/9 mark (0.47). When those numbers normalize, and they will, I’d be be shocked if his ERA was below 3.70.

* Gio Gonzalez at #61? Though successful last season his K/9, while still strong at 7.67, was a about batter below his career rate. He also walked more than four batters per nine, and that was a three year best. Like Buchholz, he also has little chance of keeping his ERA within a run of his mark from last season (3.23) given his LOB% (78.1) and HR/9 mark (0.67).

* The 60′s are the land of the young (Jhouyls Chacin, Jeremy Hellickson) and the old (Carl Pavano, A.J. Burnett).

* I’d take a shot on the potential upside dominance of Bud Norris (72) over the steady but boring Bronson Arroyo (77), Derek Lowe (78) and Jake Westbrook (79).

* Tim Stauffer (78) – All you need to know about this righty can be found in 2011 Player Profile: Tim Stauffer.

* The 80′s are populated with veterans you know but might overlook. Mark Buehrle (81) has issues striking out batters, but he throws 200 innings, wins in the double-digits, and rarely kills your ratios. Aaron Harang (82) was actually a lot better than you think the past three years despite outwardly looking lost (7.40 K/9, 2.88 K/BB). If healthy, Petco could be a huge boost for him.

* The 90′s have tons of unproven talent.

Homer Bailey (93) – See Which Pitchers Should I Target?

Kyle Drabek (94) – Likely to open the year in the Blue Jays rotation. He has an advanced understanding of pitching.

Michael Pineda (95) – I’d be surprised if he was up before June, but he will be a strikeout force when the Mariners finally turn to him.

Mike Minor (99) – Battling Brandon Beachy for the 5th spot in the Braves’ rotation. Minor wore down at the end of last season, but he has the stuff to be a top of the rotation arm.

By Ray Flowers

2011 Player Profile: Tim Stauffer

People always ask me, ‘who are your sleepers for the coming season?’ As I wrote recently in Do Sleepers Exist?, I’m pretty dubious that we can use the term as we once did before the proliferation of information that the internet has brought. However, that doesn’t mean that there aren’t players being drafted exceedingly low that couldn’t be difference makers in the coming campaign. One of those hurlers is a guy you may never have spent 10 seconds thinking about – Tim Stauffer.

Let’s start with who the hell Tim Stauffer is.

For those of you who don’t know, and I assume that is a large portion of you, Stauffer was a first round draft pick by the Padres in 2003. However, he has never quite reached the heights expected of him after he was worked very hard his last two years in college (he has lost a few mph off his fastball from those days). Stauffer has made 38 starts and 64 appearances in his career going 14-19 with a 4.06 ERA and 1.36 WHIP over 250.1 innings. So why am I wasting the time to devote an entire column to him today? You all wanted me to talk about “sleepers” right? Well here is an example of a hurler who, if given a chance at significant innings, could be a strong NL-only option in 2011.

(1) Stauffer appears to have a shot at the 5th starters role with the Padres. Here’s how the rotation would appear to be lined up at the moment:

Mat Latos, Aaron Harang, Wade LeBlanc, Clayton Richard

It looks like the 5th starters spot will come down to a battle between Cory Luebke, Dustin Moseley and Stauffer.

(2) Petco is still a wonderful place to pitch no matter what role a pitcher finds himself in.

(3) Stauffer finished last season with a 1.85 ERA in 82.2 innings. Amongst pitchers who threw 80-innings in 2010 that was the best mark in baseball.

(4) Stauffer posted a 1.08 WHIP in 2010. Amongst pitchers who threw 80-innings in 2010 that was the 8th best mark in baseball.

(5) Stauffer was equally effective last season no matter what role he filled.
As a reliever: 1.87 ERA, 1.11 WHIP in 43.1 innings (25 games)
As a stater: 1.83 ERA, 1.04 WHIP in 39.1 innings (seven games)

(6) Stauffer does a solid job of keeping the ball on the ground leading to a career GB/FB mark of 1.31. That’s a solid rate, but last season he took things to a whole new level which resulted in a GB/FB mark of 1.76. Given that he induced 10 percent more ground balls last season (54.5%) than his career average (45.9%) it is fair to speculate that some regression will be forthcoming in 2011, but it’s tantalizing to think how much success he could have if he can continue to get batters to beat the ball into the ground.

Will Stauffer be able to match his ERA and WHIP from ’10 in the coming season? I don’t think he has a chance to do that even if he ends up in the bullpen. His line drive rate was far too low last season at 14.6 percent (career 18.9), and because of all the ground balls his homer total was terrific (only three allowed in 82.2 innings). Those numbers will normalize, at least somewhat, this season, and with that both of his ratios will rise. Still, that doesn’t mean that they wont end up in a zone where they would still remain strong totals in an NL-only league.

The real key to his success might be the ability to throw quality strikes while avoiding the free pass. Last season his BB/9 mark was 2.61, a massive improvement over the 4.19 mark he posted in 2009. Given that his strikeout rate has been in the mid six’s the past two seasons, it’s important that he limits the walks.

Will Stauffer be a mixed league option in 2011? He might be if he is given 30 starts, but that doesn’t mean I would go all in on him. Conversely, I do think he is a strong option in NL-only leagues while at the same time being someone you can consider rostering in deep mixed leagues in the reserve rounds.

Anyone can tell you that James Shields is a sleeper heading into the season, but you wanted a deep sleeper. I just gave you a report on one of the guys that might fit that bill in 2011.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: September 10, 2010

(1) Johan Santana done for year – shoulder surgery.

(2) Cliff Lee (back) to start on Sunday vs. Yankees.

(3) Josh Johnson (shoulder) will throw on Saturday.

(4) Josh Hamilton showing scant improvement with ribs.

(5) Edinson Volquez back in rotation for Reds.

(6) Justin Upton (shoulder) still sitting.

(7) Former QB Pat White signs with Royals.

By Ray Flowers