(1) Aroldis Chapman to be called up on Tuesday.
(2) Manny Ramirez officially a White Sox player.
(3) Colby Rasmus (calf) back in the lineup.
(4) Nelson Cruz (hamstring) back from DL.
(5) Freddy Sanchez super hot at dish.
(6) Jose Tabata impressing with Pirates.
(7) Carlos Lee finally hitting his stride.
(8) Daniel Hudson a star for D’backs.
By Ray Flowers
(1) Ryan Braun’s wrist an issue.
(2) The Mike Gonzalez situation explained.
(3) Jose Guillen on NL West contenders minds.
(4) Brandon Morrow to have next start moved back until Tuesday as I predicted would happen on Monday in Morrow Makes History – Sort Of.
(5) Mike Leake could lose starting spot to Homer Bailey.
(6) Rich Harden to have start pushed back at least until Sunday.
(7) Gil Meche hopes to return to bullpen this season.
(8) Nyjer Morgan’s hip is an issue.
By Ray Flowers
(1) Who do you want on your fantasy staff – Bronson Arroyo or Aaron Harang?
(2) There are a ton of players who look like they could return this weekend: Carlos Gonzalez (hamstring), Mike Cameron (kidney stones), Jacoby Ellsbury (ribs) and Chris Coghlan (ribs).
(3) Fred Lewis traded to Blue Jays.
(4) Felipe Paulino and Bud Norris performing pretty well for Astros.
(5) Carlos Beltran (knee) still not running.
(6) Ted Lilly (shoulder) nearing a return.
(7) Brandon Webb throwing, though off flat ground.
(8) Lance Berkman sent to minors to play this weekend, could be activated next week.
By Ray Flowers
It’s my birthday today. I know, I know, those of you that know me knew I was a fool without need of the support of the day of my birth being April Fool’s Day, but there certainly is some nice symmetry here is there not?
With that, I thought I would move on to some actually baseball talk. Dave Gawron organized what we hope will be the first annual MIC WARS. What is MIC WARS? Simply it’s a 12-team mixed league, using 5×5 scoring, that includes 12 shows that talk baseball on Blog Talk Radio (you can find my show, which I do each day with Kyle Elrink, at 8-9 AM PST, Mon. – Fri., or you can check out the archive at The Fantasy Buffet). Before moving on to my team, here is a link to Dave’s review of the entire draft so you can see how it played out. And here is Team Fantasy Buffet (I have the #4 pick in the snake draft that starts 14 hitters, and nine pitchers).
C: Kurt Suzuki (14), Carlos Santana (25), Adam Moore (26)
1B: Derrek Lee (7), Lance Berkman (10)
2B: Jose Lopez (8), Howie Kendrick (9)
3B: Pablo Sandoval (3), Casey Blake (24)
SS: Alexei Ramirez (11), Ian Desmond (23)
OF: Ryan Braun (1), Jacoby Ellsbury (2), Jason Bay (5), Andrew McCutchen (6), Corey Hart (16), David DeJesus (28), Desmond Jennings (29)
SP: CC Sabathia (4), James Shields (12), Jonathan Sanchez (13), Jered Weaver (15), Aaron Harang (21), Brett Myers (30)
RP: Brad Lidge (17), Octavio Dotel (18), Ryan Madson (19), Chris Perez (20), Matt Thornton (22), Joba Chamberlain (27)
C: Suzuki is s top-5 option, and while Santana and Moore may not have starting spots, I bet the duo combines for at least 400 highly effective at-bats.
1B: Two grey beards, but both are capable of 25 homers, 100 RBI and 90 runs scored. I’ll take that all day.
2B: Lopez will likely also qualify at third, which is why I took him over Dan Uggla. As for Kendrick, I was tempted to wait and try and target Rickie Weeks later in the draft, but I just couldn’t pass on Kendrick who could hit .300 while going 15/15.
3B: Sandoval is money, plus he’s the Kung Fu Panda and plays for my favorite team. Casey Blake is boring yet highly efficient, and he is a more than adequate backup at third.
SS: Alexei Ramirez may never have that 20/20 season, but I’ll take a repeat of last year (.277-15-68-71-14). Desmond is a bit of a wildcard, but it looks like he will open the year as the Nationals starter at short and could very well surprise given his draft position.
OF: Braun and Ellsbury is a dynamic duo. Bay is as steady as they come as the only OF who in four of the last five seasons has hit 30 homers with 100 RBI, 100 runs and 10 steals. McCutchen could blow up and is a wonderful 4th OF, better than a few teams #2 option, and don’t believe the Hart will be platooned talk out of Milwaukee, it ain’t gonna happen. DeJesus is boring but a fine 6th outfielder, and though Jennings has little value at this point, he could be a beast on the base paths if the Rays gave him a shot at playing time.
SP: I normally never take a starter early, but when Sabathia was still there at pick 45 – his ADP is 29 – I thought it was a nice value play. Shields and Weaver are steady, and Sanchez, well, I have high hopes for that kid which you can read about at Taking Sides – Starters. Harang and Myers may not be exciting, but if every breaks right I could get 300 Ks and an ERA below 4.00 from the duo – really.
RP: If you have ever seen a better group of bullpen arms assembled on one team, I would be flabbergasted. If all of these arms are healthy, the unit could sport a K/9 rate of about 10, a massive mark. Lidge is certainly an open question at the start of the year, but I handcuffed that selection by taking Madson who should fill in until Lidge is healthy. Perez will get some saves with Kerry Wood out, Dotel appears locked in the 9th for the Pirates, Thornton may be the best middle reliever in baseball, and you watch Joba dominate in the pen.
This team has some electric arms, a few grizzled vets on offense, and a boat load of talented youngsters. Who knows how the team will end up at the season’s conclusion, but I really love the mix at this point.
By Ray Flowers
In my last two posts, I discussed the team I rostered in the K-BAD experts league. In Part III of my review, I’ll give my thoughts on how the draft played out after quickly running through my final few selections.
Note: If you want to read my review of picks 1-10, click on the link to K-BAD: Part I.
If you want to read my review of picks 11-28, click on the link to K-BAD: Part II.
ROUND 21: Matt Thornton, RP, White Sox
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
I may not have saves in abundance, but Thornton and my last pick, Ryan Madson, give me arguably two most talented setup men in the game.
ROUND 22: Chris Young, OF, Diamondbacks
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
Once upon a time he went 30/25. Hell, it was just the other day really (2007). If he comes through in ’09 he could be a cheap, vastly underrated, 20/20 option.
ROUND 23: Elijah Dukes, OF, Nationals
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
Seems refocused knowing his career might be on the line. Too bad the Nationals didn’t buy it as they let him go. This is what happens when you do a draft far in advance of any meaningful games.
ROUND 24: Delmon Young, OF, Twins
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
My third straight young outfielder. All three have a ton of potential, and each could be a terrific fifth outfield option this year.
ROUND 25: Rod Barajas, C, Mets
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
This late you can throw a dart. Hopefully Rod will hit 15 long balls and bat .250. If he does, I’ll be ecstatic. If not, I’ll hit the waiver-wire.
ROUND 26: Brandon Lyon, RP, Astros
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
There were certainly better relievers still available, but being that I’m weak in saves I had to take a chance on this inferior relief option.
ROUND 27: Casey Blake
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
He has no upside, but I had him as 15th best third basemen so no harm in taking him this late. See Breaking Down: Casey Blake.
ROUND 28: Brett Myers, SP, Astros
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
Not a bad last pick. Seriously. If he can control the homers, in tough park for pitchers, he could return 15th round value.
Here is my team (number is round selected).
C Russell Martin 11
C Rod Barajas 25
1B Miguel Cabrera 1
2B Brian Roberts 3
3B Casey Blake 27
SS Miguel Tejada 9
MI Dan Uggla 6
CI Lance Berkman 5
OF Carl Crawford 2
OF Ichiro Suzuki 4
OF Andrew McCutchen 7
OF Ryan Ludwick 15
OF Chris Young 22
UT David Ortiz 18
P Yovani Gallardo 8
P Scott Baker 10
P James Shields 12
P Trevor Hoffman 13
P Ryan Dempster 14
P Brad Lidge 17
P Aaron Harang 19
P Ryan Madson 20
P Matt Thornton 21
Bench Rafael Furcal 16
Bench Elijah Dukes 23
Bench Delmon Young 24
Bench Brandon Lyon 26
Bench Brett Myers 28
Team Review:
* I already have my fingers crossed. When the draft took place Roberts, Berkman and Martin where totally healthy, and Dukes still had a big league job. So are the breaks of the game.
* Blake in the 27th round was a nice grab, and I’ll have Tejada as an option at the hot corner as well once season gets underway.
* Crawford and Ichiro are a dynamic duo in the OF. If McCutchen does what many expect, that is one potentially fantastic threesome. The group is light on power though, so I added Ludwick who should be a fine 5th hitter for the Cardinals. My final outfield spot will go to one of two men who could be a terrific 5th option – D. Young, C. Young (Dukes hosed me).
* My offense might be a bit light on pop but you can’t have everything when picking against astute owners in an experts league.
* My staff has as good a 5-some of hurlers as any in the league: Gallardo, Baker, Shields, Dempster and Harang. Not a “superstar” amongst them, but that is a fantastic group of arms.
* My bullpen is thin. Every time I went to grab a closer someone else did. In fact, I had only one closer heading into the 17th round. At the end of the round I had two (gulp with Lidge), but another team had three and one grabbed a 4th in 18th. Closers went way too early in this league if you ask me. I didn’t want to roster a flunky just cause they were going, so I ended up passing and grabbed two of the best set up men in the game in Madson and Thornton. In the 26th round I then grabbed Lyon who could be the full-time closer in Houston, a part time option, or a total failure. Still, in the 26th, it was a risk worth taking.
* My staff is really strong top to bottom. I’ll need some help in the saves category, hopefully I’ll be able to snag one of those guys off waivers since there are always at least a handful of guys who emerge, but I should be sitting pretty in wins, ERA, WHIP and strikeouts.
Random Thoughts:
* Surprised to see these power arms not drafted: Luke Gregerson, Daniel Bard, Mike Adams, C.J. Wilson and George Sherrill.
* No one took the steady Andy Pettitte, or last year’s ground ball star Joel Pineiro.
* Three Cubs outfielders were left on waivers: Xavier Nady, Kosuke Fukudome and Marlon Byrd.
* Youngsters Carlos Gomez and Cameron Maybin also went teamless. Each offers some upside and should have been rostered in my opinion.
* At second, Kelly Johnson and Mark Ellis are free agents. I would be shocked if both don’t end up as top-20 options at second, and both have a chance to sneak into the top-15.
* No one bought into Russell Branyan repeating his effort from last season now that he is with the Indians, so he was left undrafted. Across the diamond, here are a few of the third basemen that went undrafted as well: Mark Teahen, Mike Lowell, Brandon Inge, Juan Uribe and Adam Kennedy.
I’ll keep you posted throughout the year as to how my team stacks up. Let’s just hope there aren’t more injuries prior to the season starting – there is nothing more frustrating that losing because your guys are on the shelf.
By Ray Flowers
For the second straight year, I was invited to play in an expert’s league by the folks over at KFFL. Nicknamed K-BAD, for Baseball Analysis Draft, the league pits 11 of the top minds in the game against one flunky (that would be me). I thought I would give my analysis of the team I was able to roster in the 12-team, 5×5 mixed league with 28 rounds (I had the ninth pick in the draft which was completed near the start of March).
Note: If you want to read my review of picks 1-10, click on the link to K-BAD – Part I.
ROUND 11: Russell Martin, C, Dodgers
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
Maybe the extra 20 lbs will allow him to drive the ball deep again. He wasn’t as bad as it looked last year, and is still a top-7 option in my mind – or at least he was until he was injured (this pick was made before his ill health hit). Martin is progressing well and may not miss more than a handful of games to start the year.
ROUND 12: James Shields, SP, Rays
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
Shields was the last, reliable, top shelf option left on my draft board amongst starting pitchers, so I’m very comfortable with him as my third starter.
ROUND 13: Trevor Hoffman, RP, Brewers
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
Safe, old and boring, all Hoffman does is rack up 30-saves year after year. In each of his last 14 healthy seasons he has hit that level, so there is no reason to think he will produce anything less this season.
ROUND 14: Ryan Dempster, SP, Cubs
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
The most skilled starting pitcher left on my board or a middling OF? I decided to roster a fourth solid starter since no one stood out in the outfield.
ROUND 15: Ryan Ludwick
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
Immediately after making the pick, I slightly regretted it. Not because Ludwick will fail in 2010, he’ll hit behind Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday in the center of a powerful Cardinals’ lineup, but because Mike Gonzalez was taken with the next pick and I need save help.
ROUND 16: Rafael Furcal
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
A risk since he stopped running last season. Still he is a decent starting option at short, and he will allow me to use Tejada at third base once the season gets underway.
ROUND 17: Brad Lidge, RP, Phillies
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
What, you think he won’t rebound in 2010? I’m not sure either, but I had only one reliever at this point so I had to take a chance that his elbow and knee will be healthy enough for him to return to a high level of effectiveness if his BABIP returns to normal.
ROUND 18: David Ortiz, DH, Red Sox
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
I agonized a bit here, but at this point a 25+HR, 90+RBI guy isn’t all that bad, and I needed the pop based on the rest of my lineup.
ROUND 19: Aaron Harang, SP, Reds
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
The results weren’t there last season for Harang, but he isn’t that far off his 2006-07 form that he should be getting this little respect. He’s a great 5th starter for my club.
ROUND 20: Ryan Madson, RP, Phillies
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
As talented as any reliever left on the board, he is my handcuff in case Lidge isn’t ready to go because I only had two closers at this point of the draft in Lidge and Hoffman.
By Ray Flowers
(1) Phil Hughes in battle with Joba Chamberlain, Chad Gaudin and Alfredo Aceves for Yanks 5th starters spot.
(2) Jason Heyward greatest player of all-time. Just ask around
(3) Tim Hudson and Jeremy Bonderman throw two shutout innings apiece.
(4) Brad Lidge continues to show improvement with knee/elbow.
(6) Jair Jurrjens shoulder showing improvement.
(7) Lance Berkman’s knee not that bad. Should be fine.
(8) Aaron Harang named Reds’ Opening Day starter.
By Ray Flowers
We all have questions. Some relate to what to wear or what to do with that snooty boss, while others are directed toward what type of libation they will be sipping on when the day ends? Alas, this is a baseball blog, so the questions we will answer here pertain to the diamond.
I am in a keeper league where I can keep up to 5 players.
Our league has a position for C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, LF, RF, CF and UTL. Our scoring system includes- hits, Runs, HR, RBI, K, SB and fielding percentages. Can you please let me know who you would keep from the list below?
Geovany Soto, Justin Morneau, Robinson Cano, David Wright, Hanley Ramirez, Matt Holliday, Grady Sizemore, Josh Hamilton
Bench- Carlos Beltran and Ryan Doumit
* I have great SP’s but I do not ever keep pitchers.
I traded throughout the year to get David Wright, Sizemore and Hamilton. My original thought is to keep Ramirez, Wright, Sizemore, Morneau and Hamilton. I like to keep younger players since it is a keeper league but I hate to lose Holliday.
– Bryan
What a club. That is just about the most awesome compilation of talent any league has either seen. Either (a) your pitching is atrocious, (b) you made some very astute deals, or (c) there are only six teams in your league. Here are my thoughts on who I would keep, in reverse order.
5 – Justin Morneau
How many fantasy gamers would complain about a guy who owns a career .285 mark and has produced at least 84 runs and 111 RBI in 4-straight years? If he keeps up his current pace he will make it 4-straight years.
4 – Grady Sizemore
It was either Grady or Carlos Beltran. If both were healthy they would both be up for consideration, 20/20 seasons just aren’t that easy to find. Still, with the breakdown of players in your lineup per position (LF, CF, RF), I can’t suggest keeping both since they both play CF. With Morneau as the UT there is only room for one of the CF’s on your club. Sizemore does strike out a ton, but given that he is younger he is the choice here.
3 – Matt Holliday
Hitting .636 as a Cardinal and .380 since July first, Holliday has his overall numbers up to .297-11-57-54-13 this season. What that means is that despite an abysmal start that he has a shot of a 20/20 season with a .300 batting average. Also, if he signs long-term with the Cards, hitting next to Pujols for the next five or whatever years, they have a word for that and it’s Yahtzee! Holliday may not be a 35-140 guy, but I could easily see a .300-30-100-100-15 season next year in St. Louis, can’t you? Not may left fielders in baseball can rival that.
2 – David Wright
A completely up and down season. Some will see the paltry six home runs, I see the 21 steals. Some will see the .218 July average, I see the .318 overall mark. The bottom line is that the home run dip is an anomaly, no way that a guy who owns a HR/F rate of 14 percent in his career can reasonably be expected to continue along his current 6.1 percent rate.
1 – Hanley Ramirez
The second most consistent player in the game? He won’t score 115 runs for the fourth straight season, and he won’t steal 30 bases for a fourth straight year either, but when you are hitting .348, are on pace for a 20/20 effort and play shortstop, your still a flat out stud.
David Price and Aaron Harang are killing me. Jonathan Sanchez is available. So are Joe Blanton and John Lannan. Drop either/both, and if so, who should I pick up?
– Jim
David Price: 3-4 with a 5.60 ERA and a 1.72 WHIP, Price has been a disaster. He does have a 9.17 K/9 mark, but with a 5.60 BB/9 mark he just hasn’t been able to have success or go deep into games.
Aaron Harang: Over his last six starts Harang is 0-4 with a 5.88 ERA. Moreover, he has lost his last seven decisions to drop his overall mark to 5-11. His 7.80 K/9 mark is strong, as is his 3.67 K/BB mark, but too many homers (1.35 per nine) and an inability to get hitters out (.298 BAA) have been hugely detrimental to his overall performance.
Jonathan Sanchez: Tossed a no-hitter and was added in ever league he was available. However, he hasn’t been remotely solid since with a 6.55 ERA and three homers allowed in his last two starts. Overall he continues to be plagued by an inordinate amount of walks (5.12 per nine) which negates his strikeouts (9.23 K/9) and leads to poor overall performance (4.92 ERA, 1.47 WHIP).
Joe Blanton: Though he is 7-4 with a 4.11 ERA on the year, Blanton has won his last three decisions and has allowed just four runs in those four outings (1.21 ERA). Overall, his K/9 rate is way up at 7.76, leading to a strong 3.00 K/BB mark.
John Lannan: 5-2 in his last seven decisions, only once in his last 11 starts has Lannan allowed more than three earned runs. That’s an amazingly consistent run of production is it not? The guy doesn’t strike anyone out (3.65 K/9), and therefore his K/BB is awful (1.34), but that sinker of his just keeps on diving leading to a 1.70 G/F rate which has led to all his success.
If you aren’t in a keeper league, Price just doesn’t hold much value right now. As for Harang, too many loses in a row have thrown his value into a tailspin, and Blanton owns the same skill set right now while being on a hot streak. I would drop both pitchers and replace them with Blanton and Lannan, and honestly, I can’t believe I just typed that sentence.
By Ray Flowers
The FSWA winner of the Best Baseball Series of 2011, BaseballGuys.com is the only source you will need for your fantasy baseball knowledge. OK, you might need other sources, but BaseballGuys.com should be on your daily list of must reads for the insights an analysis it provides on the world of baseball.
The co-host of The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87: M-F at 5-8 PM EDT), Ray has spent years squirreled away studying the inner workings of the fantasy game to the detriment of his personal life. Specializing in baseball, football and hockey, some consider him an expert in all three. Ray's work can also be found as feature writer for: Fantasy Alarm, Rotoinfo, Rotowire and Sports Illustrated.
You can contact Ray through e-mail at fantasyfandom@yahoo(dot)com or on Twitter.
