Breaking Down the NL

I wrote my weekly National League breakdown piece today. Here are a few of the tidbits that really stuck out for me.

* Daniel Hudson leads the NL with 79.2 innings pitched since August 1st.

* Tommy Hanson has a 2.77 ERA and 0.97 WHIP over his last 14 starts. He is 2-6 in that time.

* Carlos Zambrano is 6-0 with a 1.63 ERA over his last 12 appearances.

* Scott Rolen has 20 homers on the year but only three in his last 50 games.

* Melvin Mora is hitting .325 with 17 RBI in the month of September.

* Clay Hensley has a 2.25 ERA and a K per inning over 72 frames.

* Bud Norris has 152 Ks over 147.2 innings.

* Rod Barajas has five homers in 59 at-bats with the Dodgers.

* Randy Wolf has a 2.56 ERA over his last 10 starts.

* Carlos Beltran is hitting .329 with a .991 OPS in the month of September.

* Ryan Madson has made 42 appearances since the All-Star break with a 1.32 ERA and 0.89 WHIP.

* The Pirates have only only player who is hitting above .250 while qualifying for the batting title (502 plate appearances). It’s Andrew McCutchen at .284.

* Jon Jay is hitting a mere .214 over his last 25 games.

* Will Venable is batting an insane .529 over his last nine starts.

*Aubrey Huff is leading the Giants in the Triple Crown categories (.291-26-85).

* Adam Dunn has at least 37 homers and 92 RBI in 7-straight years. There has only been one longer streak in the annals of the game; Rafael Palmeiro had a stretch of 9-straight years from 1995-2003.

To read the entire article click on the link to National League Breakdown.

Anyone out there notice that Mark Ellis is hitting .400 in September? His season has been a disappointment with only four homers and six steals after back-to-back 10/10 efforts the past two years, but his .281 batting would be his best mark since a career best effort of .316 in 2005.

What the heck is wrong with Jonathan Papelbon? It’s always hard to judge relievers on the fly given how small of a sample size we have to deal with, but his work of late has been awful – and that is with a capital “A.” He has made nine appearances in September during which time he has a 10.61 ERA, a 2.14 WHIP and a .372 BAA. At the same time he has a rather amazing total of 18 punchouts in just 9.1 innings. His late push in the K category has upped his season long K/9 mark to 10.11, his fourth straight year above ten, though his BB/9 mark is a career worst of 3.69 (more than a run above his 2.55 career mark). I tend to think he is just missing his spots right now, though this late season run of putrid production clearly won’t lock him into the 9th inning next season, not when Daniel Bard continues to deal. Bard has more than a K per inning this season (73 in 72.1 IP), owns a 1.87 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP, and has been amazingly effective in his two season big league career (2.59 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 10.06 K/9, .199 BAA).

Justin Upton’s season is likely over because of that shoulder injury of his. He is visiting Dr. James Andrews for a second opinion today, but with a week left there is zero reason for him to return to game action even if he gets a positive report. That means he will finish the year with a .273 average, 17 homers, 69 RBI, 73 runs and 17 steals in 132 games. Every one of those numbers is smaller than his effort from 2009 (.300-26-86-84-20 in 138 games). In fact, his OPS dropped exactly .100 points down to .799 as he racked up 15 more punchouts (152). Still, he could be undervalued on draft day next season as he clearly has 30 homer, 20 steal potential.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: July 27, 2010

(1) Stephen Strasburg scratched from start.

(2) Dan Haren (forearm) checks out OK.

(3) Huston Street injured in BP – scary situation.

(4) Adam Dunn and Nationals at standstill in contract talks?

(5) Gil Meche has shoulder surgery, done for year.

(6) Jason Bay suffering from concussion.

(7) Troy Tulowitzki returns to action.

(8) Nate McLouth sent to minors.

By Ray Flowers

Who Am I?

From time to time I play this game to see just how keen your wits are when it comes to identifying players based solely on their numbers and accomplishments. Let’s see how long it takes you to guess who the player is this time.

* I’ve made five All-Star teams.

* I’ve never won the MVP award, but I’ve finished in the top-7 in voting on four different occasions.

* I get on base with the best of them. I own a career OBP of .404, the 49th best mark in league history, and I’ve been a top-10 finisher in the category on 10 occasions. To compare, Adam Dunn has never bettered a .400 mark (2002) despite owning a career mark of .382.

* I’m a fair power hitter as well having finished with a top-10 slugging percentage 10 times. My season best mark is .677 – a mark that led the AL in 2002. My career SLG is .556 which places me 23rd all-time. Only once has Jason Bay bettered that mark (.559 in 2005).

* Because of my ability to get on base and to drive the ball deep, I’ve always been a tremendous OPS option. Five times I’ve posted a mark above a grand, and I’m sporting a career mark of .960. Only once in his career has David Wright bettered that mark (.963 in 2007).

* I’ve gotten on base so many times that I’m one run from 1,500 in my career. I’ve also pounded the ball enough to record 1,584 RBI meaning I will soon become the 34th player in big league history with 1,500 runs and 1,500 RBI in a career.

* This last one may give me away. I’ve hit 570 home runs in my career, the 11th best mark in baseball history. I’m also fourth all-time in homers by a left-handed batter. Considering the questions surrounding Mark McGwire, Alex Rodriguez, Sammy Sosa and Barry Bonds, some might argue that I’m one of the top five or so home run hitters in big league history. I’ve also been very consistent with at least 30 homers in 9-straight season (1996-2004). After an injured induced dip to seven in 2004, I then went on to hit at least 34 in each of the next three seasons meaning that for 12-straight healthy seasons I never once failed to go deep 30 times.

Who am I?

I’m the Twins’ Jim Thome.

Does Thome deserve to be in the HOF given those qualifications? Here are some thoughts on the subject.

(1) As I mentioned above, no one has ever connected Thome’s name to performance enhancing drugs. He’s country hardball strong, and as such there has never been a reason to think he needed steroids to help him to power the ball into the bleachers. It would be pretty tough to keep him out of the Hall if he ends his career with nearly 600 homers.

(2) Thome is viewed by many as a DH, though that negates his work in the field entirely. In 2,333 career games Thome has appeared at first base 1,102 times, and 492 times at third base (yes he played third at the start of his career). All told, he’s been on the field using his glove more than 68 percent of the time. Clearly the designated hitter role has helped to prolong his career, but less than a third of the time he has only been a hitter and not a fielder (I gave my thoughts on whether or not the designated hitter should be considered for Cooperstown in Is There Room for a DH?).

(3) it’s not exactly scientific to merely compare numbers without context, but I’m gonna do it anyway. Let’s compare this slugging lefty to another who is already in the Hall of Fame in Reggie Jackson. Here is each players performance per 162 games.

J.Thome:.277-40-110-104-1 with a .960 OPS
Jackson: .262-32-98-89-13 with a .846 OPS

Pretty shocking how much better Thome’s numbers are isn’t it?

I mentioned McGwire earlier in this piece, so why don’t we compare him to Thome given that both hitters were very similar in their approach and talents.

J.Thome: .277-40-110-104-1 with a .960 OPS
McGwire: .263-50-122-101-1 with a .982 OPS

Pretty darn close eh? By the way, you can read more about my thoughts on McGwire in HOF: Mammoth McGwire Misunderstood?

So should Jim Thome get more respect than he usually does? Unequivocally the answer is yes. Should he be elected to the HOF? Based on the numbers he has produced I can’t see how one could make a valid argument that he doesn’t belong in the Hall.

Commonalities Wanted

There’s no theme whatsoever to my article today. I just threw everything into a hopper and wrote about the names that fell out. Oh don’t worry, it’s really insightful stuff, there just isn’t a common thread to tie everything together.

Coco Crisp has been activated by the A’s. He hit .590 with five RBI during his rehab work in the minors signaling that his body might finally be right, finally. Still, there are about seven outfielders with the A’s club, so it remains to be seen if he will have a spot in the daily lineup, especially since his skills are so similar to those of Rajai Davis.

Mark DeRosa’s season is over as he will need surgery to repair his injured wrist. In the first year of a $12 million two year contract, DeRosa gave the Giants all of one homer, 10 RBI and 93 at-bats. That’s almost as bad an investment as The Bachelor’s Jake Pavelka made in his lady friend, Vienna Girardi. Oh stop acting like you don’t watch the show – we all know you do.

Josh Hamilton is back, and it appears that he is better than ever before. Josh is hitting .337, has a 16 game hitting streak, and is sporting a .981 OPS. Back in his “breakout” 2008 effort he hit .304 with a .901 OPS. He’s frighteningly talented.

Trevor Hoffman has been awful for most of the year, everyone knows that. However, he has improved tremendously of late and appears on the cusp of reclaiming his 9th inning role. “We kind of talked about that several times today,” manager Ken Macha said. “We’ll see how some things go. That is two good outings in a row, so I’ll talk to him [Thursday] and see how he’s feeling about himself.” If you are a John Axford owner you’ll want to hold on, but make sure Hoffman isn’t on waivers if you play in a deep league.

Jamie Moyer is almost old enough to join AARP as he is 47 years old. Amazingly, he has stuck around long enough to pile up 265 victories. That total places him 10th all-time in victories by a lefty, an it’s also one behind the immortal Bob Feller and three behind Jim Palmer. Need some more info about just how amazing Moyer’s career has been? Since turning 30 he has won 231 games, the sixth most ever from that age to the end of a player’s career. To put that win total in perspective, Roy Oswalt has 142 victories, Tim Hudson 155 and Roy Halladay 156 — in their entire careers.

Buster Posey, everyone’s darling when he was called up, has hit the skids of late with a mere .186 average and a .524 OPS over his last 43 at-bats. His average is still shade over .300 at .303, but his .421 SLG is a pretty pathetic number for a first sacker (the NL average for the position is .458). I know it borders on heresy in some corners, but Posey really needs to pick it up or he could start to lose playing time (he isn’t in the lineup on Tuesday night as Pablo Sandoval is at first with Juan Uribe at third).

Mike Stanton, who I spoke of yesterday in my Around the Horn, June 21st video, deserves to be mentioned again. Here is, in written word, what I spoke of yesterday; you simply cannot have success in the big leagues if you strikeout more than 40 percent of the time. I know it’s a miniscule sample size we’re breaking down with the talented Fish, but 19 whiffs in 43 at-bats gives him a K-rate of 44.2 percent. Chris Davis, basically demoted to the minor because he whiffs too often, owns a K-rate of 34.7 percent in his career. Other noted purveyors of the strikeout follow with their career K-rates in parenthesis: Ryan Howard (32.3), Adam Dunn (32.4), Mark Reynolds (38.2) and Jack Cust (39.1). As you can tell from that list you can be mighty successful in the bigs even if you pile up copious amounts of strikeouts, but if Stanton wants to make his mark this season he’s gonna have to knock like 10 percentage points off his current rate.

By Ray Flowers

All Good Things Come to an End

Dallas Braden threw a perfect game a while ago – you heard about that right? On Thursday he pitched a strong game allowing one run over six innings, but he had to be removed after 83 pitches because of some concern over his forearm, and he was awarded a no-decision when the bullpen blew the game. Braden hasn’t won a game in seven starts since his perfect game on May 9th.

Adam Dunn has at least two hits in 11 of his last 21 games, and now he is batting .288. Dunn has never hit higher than .267 in a season, and owns a .251 career mark, so you know the average is going to regress moving forward, but he will continue to draw walks and blast balls into the seats. What is that saying again? Oh yeah, chicks dig the long ball.

It might officially be time to jump off the John Ely train. He was tattooed for seven runs in 4.2 innings on Thursday by the Reds. That’s 3-straight starts of at least four earned runs allowed (none lasting more than five innings), and in those three outings his ERA is 9.20.

Travis Hafner will not play for 9-straight games in interleague play because he simply cannot play defense with his bum shoulder. Talk about a way to screw up a guys swing. Reason number 8,729 why interleague play is a bad idea. Reason number 8,730? A team like the Rockies has to use a guy like Chris Iannetta at the spot when he is hitting .179.

Speaking of that Rockies game, Ubaldo Jimenez is flat out filthy. He tossed another eight innings of 1-run ball on Thursday to lower his ERA slightly to 1.15. Dude is scary good right now.

Who doesn’t wish they were me? I might see Rick Springfield in concert tomorrow night. I might take my VHS camera to record the event so I can play it on my huge 26 inch television.

Chipper Jones might retire at the end of the 2010 season. (1) Big shock. How can anyone be surprised when he’s hitting .234 with an OPS that doesn’t even hit .750? (2) Why is it such a big story that he might hang them up? Until he announces that he is retiring everyone should let it go.

Sorry Mike Lowell. It seems like you may never end up being traded. The Red Sox can’t seem to find a fit with either the Twins or the Rangers as both clubs aren’t willing to give up a player of quality unless the Red Sox shoulder a lot of the money Lowell is owed.

Randy Wells allowed just two runs to the A’s over seven innings on Thursday. I’m no pitch Nazi, in fact I have no idea why pitchers today, with all our medical and training advances, can’t throw more frequently than in the past, but letting a guy throw 130 pitches in a game, which the Cubs did today with Wells, has proven to be rife with danger. Look for him to breakdown or in the least to see his production regress in his next few starts.

And finally, Darin Erstad has retired. One of my favorite players because of his all-out, never quit attitude, Erstad’s body betrayed because he flung it around with such reckless abandon. He ends his career with 1,697 hits and a .282 career average, but he will always have a place in the hearts of those that played fantasy baseball back in 2000. That year Erstad made the All-Star team, won a Gold Glove, and a Silver Slugger award on his way to an 8th place finish in the AL MVP race. Erstad lead the league in at-bats (676) and plate appearances (747), as he rapped out a league leading 240 hits. All told he hit .355 with 25 homers, 100 RBI, 121 runs scored and 28 steals in one of the most complete fantasy season in recent memory as he produced one of only two seasons in the history of baseball of .355-25-100-120-25 (the other was by Larry Walker in 1997 when he hit .366 with 49 homers, 130 RBI, 143 runs and 33 steals). Via Con Dios my friend.

By Ray Flowers

How About That: Hitters

I’m busy as hell today running all over the place making sure everything for the National Fantasy Baseball Championship is in place for the event to officially begin late tonight (all the players in the database on the correct teams, etc.). Still, I didn’t want to leave you hanging without an update, so here is a quick listing of a few interesting facts that might pique your attention.

* If we remove all 135 hits that Barry Bonds produced in 2004, give him an 0-for-135, his OBP for that season still would have been .391 – a mark that would have been good enough for 12th in the NL in 2009 (Bonds produced a .609 OBP in ’04, the best mark in history).

* There are only three men who have ever had a season of 20 homers and 60 steals. They are Eric Davis in 1986 (27 HR, 80 SB), Joe Morgan in 1973 (26 HR, 67 SB) and 1976 (27 HR, 60 SB) and Rickey Henderson in 1985 (24 HR, 72 SB) 1986 (28 HR, 87 SB) and 1990 (28 HR, 65 SB).

* In 1982 Rickey Henderson set a major league record with 130 SB. He also set the ML record with 42 caught stealing that year as well.

* Jim Rice could really hit, but the hard shots he hit, combined with his cement feet, led to a ton of double plays in his career. Rice is the all-time single season leader with 36 GIDP in 1984. He is also second on the list with 35 in 1985.

* The all-time record for hit-by-pitch in a single season is 51, held by Hughie Jennings in 1896 (the “modern” record is held by Ron Hunt with 50 in 1971). Jennings owns three of the top-4 seasons ever, and is #1 all-time with 287 HBP in his career, two more than Craig Biggio.

* Ty Cobb had seven months with 50+ hits, with a high of 67 twice (July 1912, July 1922).

* Ichiro hit .372 in 2004 on his way to a single season record 262 hits. Even more amazing was the fact that he hit .429 after the All-Star break (143 for 333).

* Nap Lajoie is officially credited with the highest single season batting average of the modern era at .426 in 1901. However the all-time leader is actually Hugh Duffy who hit .440 in 1894.

* Poor Randy Tate. In 1975 he went the entire season without a hit, 41 at-bats in total (with 22 Ks). He never played again making him the all-time leader for most career ABs without ever earning a hit.

* In 1894 the Baltimore Orioles team hit .343…and finished 2nd to the Philadelphia A’s who hit .349 (the league hit .309).

* Ever heard of Bill Bergen? From 1901-1911 he was a major league catcher who couldn’t hit at all. Of all hitters who have ever had at least 3,000 plate appearances, Bergen’s .170 batting average is the worst. How the hell did he earn 3,028 ABs with that average? He must have been one hell of a game manager.

* Ken Boyer hit 24 homers in each of four straight seasons (1961-64). If you think that is impressive, give Adam Dunn’s line a look as he hit 40 homers for 4-straight years (2005-08). In 204 he hit 46, and in 2009 he hit 38, so for that six year span of 2004-2009 Dunn averaged 41 homers a year.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: Feb 25, 2010

(1) Carl Crawford is no longer negotiating with Rays meaning this is almost assuredly his last season with the club.

(2) Octavio Dotel and Joel Hanrahan receive positive news in regards to their injuries

(3) Adam Dunn working on defense at 1B for Nationals.

(4) Alfonso Soriano reporting that his knee is improving.

(5) Brad Lidge throwing – showing improvement. Still hopes to make opening day.

(6) Francisco Liriano has Twins excited with the return of his “stuff.”

(7) Jose Batista to bat leadoff for Blue Jays – uh oh.

By Ray Flowers

Down the Stretch

Heading into the weekend of the regular season I thought I would take a quick look around the league and throw out there some interesting tidbits of knowledge, factoids if you will, that would be interesting to read. At least that is the plan.

Jeremy Bonderman was suspended for three games for intentionally throwing at the Twin’s Delmon Young. This is hardly a surprise given the current landscape of the game. However, what was surprising is that the Twins’Jose Mijares, the man who escalated the confrontation between the teams by throwing behind Adam Everett, was only fined. “I don’t know how the person who starts it doesn’t get some sort of penalty too,” Tigers’ GM Dave Dombrowski said. “I’ve expressed that to people in the commissioner’s office.” (1) This is totally ridiculous. If Bonderman is suspended, so must be Mijares. (2) Can you imagine how many times that Bob Gibson would have been sidelined by suspension if he had pitched today? Face it. The game is filled to the brim with wussy’s of all kinds. Yeah, that’s right, I said it. Sometimes guys get hit, that’s the game, and if some moron like Mijares does something inflammatory than the “baseball code” dictates a retaliation. Bonderman did that, and he did it properly by throwing his pitch off of Young’s knee and not at his noggin’. Hell, the Twins even understood what was going on. “Trust me, Delmon wasn’t at all upset with the Tigers,” Denard Span said Thursday. “He knew what was going to happen, and he was angry at our teammate.” So, what good does this suspension do? Exactly – it does nothing. Once again baseball screwed something up. What a shock.

Eric Byrnes and Chris Young both had four hits on Friday. Byrnes went deep twice and had five RBI while Young had four runs scored. Too bad it took six months for the D’backs to get a game like this from both of these guys. Too little too late guys, but still a nice outing for those that took a chance on having either one active. At least Young is hitting .287 with six homers over his last 26 games.

You know the Twins new ballpark, scheduled to be ready to go for the start of next season, is an outdoor stadium right? Yes, they are going with an outdoor stadium in Minnesota. I’m no weather man, but that cannot be a good thing can it? It certainly isn’t if you ask Mike Cameron. “Why in the world would they build an outdoor stadium? That will be the worst new park in the league. They’re going to get no players there.” Too bad the Twins didn’t consult Mr. Cameron because I can’t think there are many players who are going to disagree with that sentiment.

Adam Dunn says that he uses a 34.5 inch, 34 ounce bat most of the year, but inexplicably, when others are moving to lighter bats as their bodies grow weary, he goes to a heavier 35 ounce bat late in the year. “Don’t ask me why…It just feels better going up.” Dunn needs to hit two homers this weekend for 40, a total he has reached exactly in each of the past four seasons. Hopefully that bigger stick ‘o lumber will help.

Anyone out there realize that David Ortiz is, rather remarkably, just two homers and three RBIs away from a 30-100 season? If he is able to reach both marks this weekend it will mark the sixth time in six seasons with the Red Sox that he will be part of that club. For a guy who had one homer run and 18 RBI in his first 46 games, that’s more than a quarter of the season folks, that’s a pretty impressive effort

I was watching Jake Peavy’s start against the Tigers on Friday and I had a thought – how does anyone hit him, ever? When you can rush it up there 92-93 with that much movement on your fastball, I just don’t see how anyone squares it up. Add in 2-3 mph that he has when healthy, and count me as one of those people who is shocked when anyone hits a line drive off him.

By Ray Flowers