Free Agent Monday

photo © 2007 Keith Allison | more info (via: Wylio)

I’m not a huge fan of waiver-wire bingo. I think too often we go for the quick fix when slow and steady often wins the race. You know what I’m talking about. Some guy goes 5-for-8 with a homer and a steal and you’d knock over your mother to get to the computer first so you could add him to your team (I know which one of you out there would do it to, so don’t B.S. me and say you wouldn’t). So it’s with trepidation that I throw out the following names based upon their work the past two weeks. Still, it’s Monday and you need to get your lineup in shape for the week, so if you have injured players, or guys that you simply can’t stomach for another week, here are some options you could turn to.

Alexi Casilla – .432-0-5-9-5 in 44 ABs
Finally. This guy can hit and steal a base, just look at his minor league numbers at Triple-A over 168 games: .278/.370/.371 with 38 thefts. However, after hitting .281 in 2008 with the Twins he’s struggled to get significant playing time in the bigs. With the Twins in desperate need of offense you can’t think he will be sitting any time soon, though it will be interesting to see what happens when Tsuyoshi Nishioka returns from the DL. For now, Casilla is white hot, and since he qualifies at 2B and SS there could easily be a spot for him on your club.

Freddie Freeman – .378-1-7-4-1 in 45 ABs
The problem for any solid first base hitter is that first base is the land of the titans. Solid just won’t cut it unless you are in a deep league or one that starts corner infielders. However, the Braves’ rookie is doing his best to make you consider his name for a starting spot. In six of his last eight games he has at least two hits, he’s driven in seven runners in that time, and lo and behold his season long batting average is now .277 – not bad when you consider it was sitting at .220 less than a month ago (May 13th). If you need an injury fill in he seems primed to help, but again, make sure you don’t make the mistake of thinking Freddie’s ready to be a starter at first in a 12 team mixed league.

Chase Headley – .354-0-5-5-2 in 48 ABs
Most will look at Headley and see one homer and 23 runs scored and think – why even bother with this third baseman? In retort I’d point out the following. (1) Headley is hitting .280, a solid mark. He’s also working on a 15-game hitting streak. (2) His OBP is strong at .385. In fact, that’s the best mark of any NL third baseman. (3) He has seven steals. Only two third base eligible players have more – Ryan Roberts and David Wright have nine each. Headley isn’t a difference maker, but he’s a solid add if your lineup needs a boost.

Adam Kennedy – .342-1-8-7-0 in 38 ABs
Kennedy came out of nowhere to hit .289 with 11 homers and 20 steals in 2009 after it seemed like his career was heading off into the sunset. He predictably slumped last year down to .249 with three homers, but he’s back at it again in 2011. The Mariners’ offense is atrocious, so Kennedy should continue to see time until he slows down. The pending call up of Dustin Ackley is a concern, they won’t call him up to have him watch from the bench, but until then Kennedy is a moderate add for those of you who need some batting average help up the middle, and he’s always good for a few thefts.

Miguel Olivo – .350-4-13-7-1 in 40 ABs
Over the last three games he has three homers and seven RBI, and he’s posted a hit in 6-straight to raise his average .012 points. Consistent. That’s what Olivo is. I’ve said and written it before, but here it is again. Over the past five years only two catchers in baseball have 11 homers and 41 RBI each season. They are Brian McCann and Miguel Olivo.

Cliff Pennington – .349-0-3-5-1 in 43 ABs
If you are a Jimmy Rollins or Hanley Ramirez owner you might look this guys way. He’s clearly hitting well, and he’s shown the ability to swipe plenty of bases (he had 29 steals last year). He’s nothing more than a place holder in mixed leagues, but you could do worse in the short-term.

Ruben Tejada – .326-0-8-5-0 in 43 ABs
Limitations are the name of the game here. In 17 games this year he has zero homers. In 95 career games he has only one. In 17 games this year he has zero steals. In 95 games he has only two. He’s also hit a mere .232 in 272 career at-bats. OK, maybe I shouldn’t have mentioned him at all.

Ty Wigginton – .326-3-5-8-0 in 43 ABs
He somehow always goes underrated while somehow getting enough at-bats to blast 20 homers. Ty qualifies at 1B, 3B and 2B in every league, so he is a great guy to have at the end of your bench. When he’s getting regular playing time, like he is now, and is also hitting well, as he has since he returned from injury, then it makes a lot of sense to have him in your starting lineup.

By Ray Flowers

The Stange Case of Rafael Soriano

Rafael Soriano is still looking for work. There is no telling what his agent Scott Boras is asking for – my guess is that he is telling everyone that Soriano is the second best closer in baseball history behind Mariano Rivera – but the fire-balling righty is still looking for a job. Reports this week were that he would considering serving as the setup man for Rivera with the Yankees, but the Yanks quickly shot down that rumor and said they weren’t interested in dropping a ton of dough for a setup man (could that change if Andy Pettitte officially retires?). So where will Soriano end end? There aren’t too many openings to fill 9th inning roles left vacant, so perhaps Soriano will have to settle for a smaller money deal, something that seemed unlikely a few weeks back when guys like Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier were getting 3-year deals. Has Mr. Boras finally failed one of his clients? You should know better than to doubt Mr. Boras at this point.

The real reason for the reluctance of teams to shed out major dinero for Soriano must be tied to his awful record of health since he has kept many a trainer/doctor in business over the years with a plethora of arm issues constantly slowing him down. Here are his innings pitched totals since he reached the big leagues.

47.1
53.0
3.1
7.1
60.0
72.0
14.0
75.2
62.1

Let me sum that up for you. In three of last eight seasons Soriano didn’t even toss 15 innings. Would you be comfortable giving a guy like that $10 million a year? Me neither. At the same time, Soriano has tossed 60-innings in back-to-back seasons for the second time (the first was in 2006-07), though it’s not as if he has been 100 percent healthy in that time. The fact of the matter is that all pitchers are at risk with every toss, though Soriano is clearly much more likely to come down with some ailment than your average hurler.

All of Soriano’s injuries have obscured the fact that he is an absolutely dynamic pill tosser. Check out his career numbers. They are scintillating.

2.73 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 9.62 K/9, 3.58 K/BB, .193 BAA

You think those numbers are great? They are, but his 2010 effort made even those strong totals look average.

1.73 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 8.23 K/9, 4.07 K/BB, .163 BAA

Wow is right.

I didn’t even mention that Soriano racked up a career best 45 saves to lead the AL (he entered the year with 43 career saves). Soriano also posted the fourth best ERA in baseball for any hurler with at least 60-innings pitched while his WHIP was second (Joaquin Benoit was first at 0.68). That’s some serious dealing folks.

Someone is going to end up with one hell of a reliever. The only question is will he be able to stay healthy long enough to reward that team for their investment in his golden arm?

All Free Agent Team

I’m scheduled to visit with Jeff Rickard on Saturday around 11 AM PST on MLB Network Radio to talk free agents. We’re actually going to discuss whether or not you could put together a fantasy worthy team of players still looking to find a home for 2011 (i.e. they are free agents). Here is my all free agent fantasy team.

C: Bengie Molina
1B: Russell Branyan
2B: Adam Kennedy
3B: Jorge Cantu
SS: Orlando Cabrera
OF: Manny Ramirez, Vladimir Guerrero, Johnny Damon
DH: Jim Thome
SP: Andy Pettitte, Carl Pavano, Bruce Chen, Kevin Millwood, Freddy Garcia, Brad Penny, Chris Young
RP: Mr. Soriano of course, Brian Fuentes, Jon Rauch, Chad Qualls

It’s not exactly a powerhouse team that would win any leagues, but I’ve also seen people put together worse teams.

By Ray Flowers

Injuries and Failures

Today was a good day. I accomplished all the writing I had hoped to get to, answered a ton of emails, had a strong podcast this morning with Kyle Elfrink, and closed down the day with a nice two hour shift of Live Advice. Before I drift off into the mist of Friday night, and a potential date (keep your fingers crossed), I thought I would wrap up the day with some notes from what is going on around the diamond, so here goes nothing.

Giants fans, here is your catcher update for the week. Bengie Molina is second on the Giants with eight RBI and he is batting .317 through 12 games. Amazingly, he also has two walks already, a breakneck pace for a guy who walked 13 times last year in 132 games (how pathetic is that and the corresponding .285 OBP?). Down on the farm the heir apparent, Buster Posey, is batting .373 through 15 games. Buster also has eight walks against nine strikeouts helping him to post a .457 OBP and a .949 OPS. There is no doubt that Posey already has a better approach at the dish than Molina, but Molina has enough power at the plate, and works very well with the staff on defense, so don’t be at all surprised to see Posey continue to toil away in the minors for a while unless there is an injury with the Giants.

The A’s Kevin Kouzmanoff has hit .215 with .308 SLG and a .572 OPS in his first 17 games with his new club. Some other disturbing numbers with KK follow. (1) He is hitting .056 with RISP (1-for-18). (2) He is batting .156 with runners on base. (3) Fifty-eight of his 66 ABs this season have come out of the cleanup spot. The A’s finally dropped him to sixth in the order the other night.

Manny Ramirez has been placed on the DL with a calf injury. It’s being called a strain so let’s hope that 15 days on the sidelines will be enough to cure him. Xavier Paul has been recalled from the minors to take his roster spot, though it looks like Reed Johnson and Garret Anderson will likely take Manny’s place in the everyday lineup. None of those three have close to the presence of Manny, and none figure to be able to match his early season work at the dish either (.415 with a 1.159 OPS through 13 games). I really went out on a limb with that statement didn’t I?

The Red Sox have been about as successful throwing out attempted base thieves this season as I have been trying to convince beautiful ladies to go out with me. Let’s just say neither of us has had a high success rate, but I would have to think my mark is better than the what the Red Sox have been getting from Victor Martinez and Jason Varitek (the Sox have thrown out just one of 38 steal attempts). The rumor is that the Sox have an interest in bringing Chris Snyder out east to join their club. Of course, this won’t happen for a while as the D’backs can’t afford to move Snyder at least until Miguel Montero returns from his knee injury. Snyder has thrown out just 25.9 percent of base stealers in his career, and is only 2-for-12 this year (16.7 percent), but the Sox are fairly desperate at this point because of their inept duo.

Ryan Zimmerman is out of the lineup on Friday after injuring his other hamstring. He also figures to miss Saturday’s game, but the belief is still that he should be good enough to go come next week. Cristian Guzman will continue to fill in with Adam Kennedy at second and Ian Desmond playing short.

Ben Zobrist was given a 5-year deal that could be worth up to $32.5 million dollars after last year’s breakout season. Apparently he’ll get about $18 million guaranteed with a couple of option years that could take the deal up to that original total. The Rays aren’t usually wrong with their talent evaluation, and they certainly have to be proactive given their financial situation, but that seems like a fair bit of loot to lavish on a guy who has only one full big league season under his belt.

Finally, here are a couple of links to stories I wrote on Friday.

What are the Cubs thinking with their move of Carlos Zambrano to the bullpen? Impact Report: Gorzelanny/Silva/Zambrano.

For those of you who have a special place in your heart for hockey, here is a quick jaunt around the frozen pond where I discuss all the first round playoff matchups. Frozen Pucks.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: Feb.5, 2010

(1) Buster Posey to play the infield in spring?

(2) Madison Bumgarner Giants 5^th starter?

(3) Orlando Hudson to Twins results in Adam Kennedy to Nationals.

(4) Yorvit Torrealba ends up with Padres.

(5) Brandon Webb to throw off mound.

(6) Kevin Gregg is the newest member of the Blue Jays bullpen.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: Feb.4, 2010

(1) Orlando Hudson reportedly agreed to a 1-year deal with the Minnesota Twins. (2) Carlos Marmol agrees to 1-year deal to avoid arbitration with Cubs. (3) Nomar Garciaparra aims to keep on playing. (4) Russell Branyan still a free agent, wanted outlandish money at one point. (5) Erik Bedard looking more and more like he will return to the Mariners.

You can also read more of my thoughts on Carlos Marmol in my Breaking Down piece on him.

Oh, and that bikini picture below? There is no reason for it to be there other than I figured you might like to look at their fine feminine form more than my ugly mug.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: Jan.29, 2010

Which baseball players are in the news as we head toward the weekend? Glad you asked.

(1) Mike Wuertz re-signs with A’s. (2) Jermaine Dye turns down Cubs. (3) Orlando Hudson still negotiating with the Nationals – still. (4) Orlando Cabrera likely to sign with Reds or Rockies. (5) Justin Verlander talking 5-years with Tigers. (6) Eric Byrnes signs with Mariners. (7) Dustin McGowan’s shoulder doing well. (8) Johnny Damon still homeless.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: Jan.28, 2010

I’ll take a look around the world of baseball in 300 seconds. (1) Fernando Tatis to return to Mets. (2) Johnny Damon no longer in Yankees plans with signing of Randy Winn? (3) Eric Byrnes will not return to Bay Area and Giants. (4) Jim Edmonds signs with Brewers at 40 years of age. (5) Pedro Martinez and Phillies still negotiating. (6) Orlando Hudson still talking to Nationals.

By Ray Flowers

Don't Forget Mother's Day

The weekend is nearly upon us, and before you jump in the shower to make yourself beautiful or handsome for your significant other, here are some of my thoughts revolving around the diamond as we head into a wonderful weekend of baseball. Oh, one other thing. Don’t be a bum and remember it’s Mother’s Day this Sunday. You don’t have to go and buy something fancy for your mama, but at least get her a card and write something heartfelt in it – they love that more than a new coffee machine anyway.

Jeremy Bonderman, out while working on strengthening his shoulder, is apparently hitting 90-91 mph with regularity on his fastball as he nears a minor league rehab assignment. Still just 26 years old which is pretty amazing, Bonderman was once an up and coming star who struck out 202 batters while winning 14 games in 2006. Since then it has been one physical setback after another. I wouldn’t put too much stock in his rehab until he takes the hill and we can see how he responds in actual game situations. He could end up being a fine AL-only addition, but I say you need to make him prove he is worth it before you blindly throw out a big FAAB bid on a guy who is coming off a terrible season (5.55 K/9, 1.22 K/BB, 1.56 WHIP in just 71.1 innings) despite a somewhat decent ERA of 4.29.

Chris Coghlan seems to have the Marlins in a bit of an excited phase – kind of like a college kid at the thought of a drunken party on Saturday night where there will be about 25 single gals looking for a good time. Coghlan, a second baseman who could also see time at third base if Emilio “I was great for two weeks but now I’m awful” Bonifacio doesn’t start hitting soon. Coghlan was simply tearing up Triple-A this season hitting .348 with a .990 OPS and 22 RBI in 24 games, and he figures to get a real shot at some substantial playing time which should pique the ears of NL-only participants. In 483 ABs last season at Double-A Chris hit .298-7-75-83 with 34 steals, showing that he could be highly productive. Still, he only has 24 games played above Double-A, so it would be wise to avoid blowing your FAAB budget on him.

I think ESPN only spent 25% of Sportscenter today talking about Brett Favre. What an improvement in their coverage the world of sports. What is that tagline of their, the Leader in World Wide Sports Coverage or something like that?

Ryan Freel is the newest member of the Cubs after being brought over in a deal with the Orioles. Freel will take over the roster spot vacated by Joey Gathright and basically supply the same skill set with the added ability to play multiple positions. Freel has always been a personal favorite for his 100% at all times spirit, and after a big spring training there was some hope that he might provide some value in a league specific scenario this season. Unfortunately Freel started slowly this year hitting .133 in 15 ABs before incurring a head injury, and though his speed isn’t what it once was he is still capable of stealing a bag and he did hit .298 last season in 131 at-bats with the Reds.

Adam Kennedy was sent from the Rays to the A’s on Friday. I know the guy has fallen out of favor but dude still hit .280 last season, slightly above his career .276 mark, and it just seems odd to me that he can’t find a backup job on someone’s squad. He has no fantasy value at the moment, though with the A’s motley collection of aging/injury prone infielders perhaps he can work his way into AL-only relevance by the time the season is complete (he could even see a fair amount of playing time at second over the next month until Mark Ellis returns from injury).

Wait. Did you hear that Manny Ramirez was suspended? How did I miss that? Oh wait, I didn’t. I think ESPN spent 25% of Sportscenter talking about it so when you add that to their coverage of Favre, that leaves the world of sports and the 3,000 or so other professional athlete’s in the States the could be covering received 50% of the show. If you sense a bit of sarcasm give yourself a little happy face stamp like your kindergarten teacher used to give you when you spelled beautiful right. Speaking of that, I sent to a current flame asking her to spend the weekend with me. Do you think that the happy face she sent back to me signaled ‘all systems go big boy’ or ‘you’ve got to be kidding you moron.’ For some reason I think it’s option number two.

Alex Rodriguez has been activated from the DL hopefully putting an end to the Cody Ransom and Angel Berroa era at third base. Of course, now they have the steroid using, whining, wife cheating, celebrity dating phase of the plan back in order. I’m not sure that is any better.