Draft Day Challenge, May 16

BaseballGuys.com has partnered with DraftDay.com to give all my wonderful followers, that’s you, the chance to play the game on a daily basis. On Tuesday and Thursday’s every week, I’ll share some insight into a few of the better plays for the day – even if I’m willing to admit that daily games are a bit of a crap shoot given the difficulty in predicting how a handful of at-bats will work out.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

One other source for those of you on Twitter. @MLBDailyLineups – lists all the lineups in one spot so you can make sure you don’t have someone in your lineup that is sitting on the bench that day.

CATCHERS
1. Tyler Flowers
2. Kurt Suzuki

Flowers is hitting .333 the past week and he faces the middling Jerome Williams who has allowed seven runs over his last 11 innings despite being solid this year with a 3.06 ERA.

Wilson Ramos is hurt again, and it looks like a DL stint could be coming. Suzuki should get lots of work behind the dish, and he’s got a hit in nine of his last 10 games.

FIRST BASE
1. Lyle Overbay
2. Adam LaRoche

A surprising contributor for the Yankees this season, Overbay should keep the good times rolling against Aaron Harang whom he has 11 hits in 24 at-bats against (.458 average).

LaRoche has gone 5-for-14 (.357) against Mr. Volquez with two walks leading to a .438 OBP. LaRoche has also been hot of late (.321 with a homer and four RBIs the past week) making him a strong play.

SECOND BASE
1. Marco Scutaro
2. Dustin Pedroia

Scutaro is hitting .480 the past week with six runs scored. When you are producing like that it doesn’t matter who you are facing (it’s Jhoulys Chacin in Colorado where Scutaro has hit .378 for his career).

Can Mr. Cobb of the Rays stop Pedroia who has 12 hits in his last 24 at-bats (.500)?

THIRD BASE
1. Pablo Sandoval
2. Adrian Beltre

I’ve never been a huge fan of Jhoulys Chacin, not when pitching in Colorado, and that’s where he takes the hill against Pablo Sandoval who is hitting .412 with two homers against him in 17 at-bats.

It’s tough to go with anyone when they face Justin Verlander, but Beltre has long held his own. He’s hit .314 with a homer in 35 at-bats, though his OPS has only been .771.

SHORTSTOP
1. Troy Tulowitzki
2. Yunel Escobar

Tulo is the best hitting shortstop in the game right now (Tulo is hitting .322, has a 1.013 OPS and 32 RBIs in 36 games). He’s also murdered Matt Cain hitting .340 with four homers in 53 games. The matchup will also take place in Colorado. Nuff said.

Escobar has four hits in 10 at-bats against the struggling Felix Doubront (he’s allowed a whopping 12 runs over his last nine innings pitched). Escobar might finally be pulling out of his season long slump as well as he’s hit in four straight and seven of eight games.

OUTFIELD
1. Jason Bay
2. Dayan Viciedo

Want a cheap outfield option who has had a great amount of success against the hurler he’s facing? Bay has hit .400 in 35 at-bats against Andy Pettitte who has a 5.64 ERA and 1.48 WHIP the past three weeks.

Viciedo has looked good since he returned to action (Viciedo has hits in nine of 10 games, and he’s gone deep twice with four RBIs in his last three outings). Can’t get any better than he has been against Jerome Williams though as he is a perfect 5-for-5. He even has a walk which might be more shocking.

STARTING PITCHERS
1. Jose Quintana
2. Edinson Volquez
3. Alex Cobb
4. Matt Cain

Quintana has a 3.72 ERA and 1.22 ERA on the season, and he faces the Angels in Anaheim Thursday. In his last outing he allowed six base runners and two earned runs over six innings against this same Angels club. Does the hitters familiarity, having seen him less than a week ago, scare you off?

Volquez has a 3-0 record and 2.49 ERA the past three weeks as he’s all of a sudden locked in. He’s facing a Nats team that is down Jayson Werth and potentially Bryce Harper, but that’s still a solid club and the game is on the road where Volquez often struggles.

Cobb had an astounding 13 Ks in his last outing, astrounding because he only recorded 14 outs (that’s the first time that has ever happened in big league history). Cobb faces the Red Sox, a team he allowed three earned runs, while striking out six batters, in a 6.2 inning loss on April 14th. He has a 3.18 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over four starts agianst the Sox.

Cain pitches in Colorado, and that’s always a difficult thing for any hurler, but Cain has pitched very well against the Rockies in his career with a 15-7 record an a 3.11 ERA. He’s 5-3 with a 4.11 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in Colorado. Cain is also 2-0 with a 2.95 ERA the past three weeks.

By Ray Flowers

Draft Day Challenge, April 23

Daily baseball is all the rage in the fantasy sports world, so I will be covering the game a couple of times a week here at BaseballGuys.com. To that end, I’ve partnered with DraftDay.com to give all my wonderful followers, that’s you, the chance to play the game on a daily basis. On Tuesday and Thursday’s here at the site, every week, I’ll be giving you some insight into the mind of The Oracle as I will give you some of my best plays for the day – even if I’m willing to admit that daily games are a bit of a crap shoot given the difficulty in predicting how a handful of at-bats will work out.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

One other source for those of you on Twitter: @MLBDailyLineups – lists all the lineups in one spot so you can make sure you don’t have someone in your lineup that is sitting on the bench that day.

CATCHERS
1. Salvador Perez
2. Russell Martin

Perez is hitting a poor .188 the past three weeks to drop his season long mark down to .258. He faces Max Scherzer, a tough matchup, though one that he has had ample success with as he’s gone deep twice and has five hits in seven at-bats.

Martin was awful at the start of the season and people were freaking out. He’s turned that all around of late. Martin is hitting .526 the past week with a couple of homers. Things tend to even out eventually.

FIRST BASE
1. Mark Trumbo
2. Adam LaRoche

Trumbo is hitting .350 with a homer the last week, and he’s been solid all year long with a .311 average. He’s also gone 4-for-10 against Alexi Ogando whom he faces on this day.

LaRoche is a slow starter, so maybe it’s tough to trust him, but he has had some success versus Adam Wainwright in his career (.280-1-9 in 25 at-bats).

SECOND BASE
1. Ian Kinsler
2. Jose Altuve

Kinsler is expensive, but he’s worth it given the success he has had against Jason Vargas (.343-1-3 with two steals over 35 at-bats).

Altuve is white hot right now with a .455 batting average over the past two weeks. Will he be able to keep that going against Hisashi Iwakuma who has a 1.69 ERA and 0.53 WHIP over four starts?

THIRD BASE
1. Mark Reynolds
2. Kyle Seager

Reynolds leads baseball with 10 RBIs against left-handed pitching and he faces Jose Quintana, a lefty, from the White Sox. Reynolds has gone deep three times against lefties though he has hit, a Reynolds-like, .231.

Seager is hitting .276 thanks to hits in 11-straight games. He’s also rapped out seven hits the past three games and has two homers and four RBIs in his past two contests.

SHORTSTOP
1.Yunel Escobar
2. Jean Segura

Escobar has seven hits in 16 at-bats (.438) against Phil Hughes, you know, the slacker from New York who has a 1.79 WHIP and 6.43 ERA through three outings. Escobar also hit his second homer of the year and had two RBIs Monday night.

Segura is 0-for-3 against Clayton Richard in his career but he also leads baseball on this young season with a .563 batting average in 16 at-bats against left-handed pitching.

OUTFIELD
1. Alex Gordon
2. Matt Joyce

The matchup for Gordon looks sloppy on paper as he faces Max Scherzer. Results though say that Gordon should have a lot of success as he’s hit .389 with a homer in 18 at-bats against the righty. Gordon also enters the game hitting. .342 in April.

Joyce has gone deep twice with five hits in 11 at-bats (.455) against Phil Hughes, you know, the slacker from New York who has a 1.79 WHIP and 6.43 ERA through three outings. Wait, have I already written that?

STARTING PITCHERS
1. Jose Quintana
2. Wade Davis
3. Patrick Corbin
4. Carlos Villanueva

Quintana has 14 strikeouts over 13.2 shutout innings in his last two starts. He’s facing an Indians club that has hit .094 with a .172 SLG against him over 64 at-bats. Ownage perhaps?

Davis hasn’t allowed an earned run over his last two starts and he has struck out 13 batters over those 23 innings. He faces a tough Tigers lineup but he’s rolling so far in the young season and he does have a 3.42 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in seven career outings against the Tigers.

Corbin has allowed a total of three runs in two outings on the road this season. He faces off against the Giants in San Francisco. In three starts this season the young lefty has allowed a total of three earned runs though his 1.86 K/BB ratio isn’t exactly fantastic though in 23 innings against the Giants that number is a remarkable 15.00 (15 Ks, 1 BB).

Villanueva has allowed three runs in three starts this season leading to a 1.29 ERA and 0.81 WHIP for the Cubs. He faces the Reds in Cincinnati, a club that he has performed passably against in his career (3.99 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 40 Ks in 49.2 IP).

By Ray Flowers

Mock Draft: Talking Pitching Early

In fantasy baseball circles I’m known as the ‘anti-pitcher’ guy. I tell people all the time that in re-draft leagues there is no reason to take a pitcher at the top of a draft, and I practice what I preach (see how my staff turned out in the recent FSTA Experts Draft where I waited until the 8th round to take my first hurler). I know though that many others disagree with that line of thought. So for the sake of thoroughness and seeing both sides of the coin, I decided to flip my traditional script on its ear and go pitching early in a draft. Not only did I go pitching early, I went bonkers with pitching early.

I was invited by Cory Schwartz of MLB.com to participate in a 15 team mixed league (23 rounds with 14 hitters and nine pitchers, but no bench). I drew the 13th pick in the draft and thought, what the hell, I’m taking a hurler in the first round to see how my team would turn out since I know so many of you are drafting hurlers in the first round. I took Clayton Kershaw. When my second turn came up, pick #18 overall, guess which dominating righty was still available? If you said Justin Verlander you are correct. If you said that I did the unthinkable and took Verlander as well… you’d be right again. Not only did I blow past my ‘never take a pitcher in the first round’ strategy, I multiplied the pitching love by grabbing the top two arms in the game with my first two selections. How did my team turn out? Let’s take a look.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

C: Matt Wieters (6th round), John Jaso (17)
1B: Adrian Gonzalez (4)
2B: Marco Scutaro (20)
3B: Pablo Sandoval (5)
SS: Alcides Escobar (11)
MI: Josh Rutledge (12)
CI: Adam LaRoche (14)
OF: Jay Bruce (3), Nelson Cruz (7), Carl Crawford (8), Shane Victorino (9), Nick Markakis (10)
UT: Brett Gardner (16)

STARTING PITCHERS: Clayton Kershaw (1), Justin Verlander (2), Tim Hudson (15), James McDonald (18), Wandy Rodriguez (19)

RELIEF PITCHERS: Jason Grilli (13), Sean Marshall (21), David Robertson (22), Bobby Parnell (23)

I certainly went as big as one could in the first two rounds on the hill, but then I didn’t take another arm until the 13th round, and my third starter didn’t come until the 15th (I would bet many who do go big early on pitching then sit back and wait to fill out their staff with the thought being that they got a stud or two early so now they can afford to wait). This was only a 23 round draft, there were no bench rounds, so you can be assured that at least two, possibly three, of my bench spots would have been devoted to starting pitchers to round out the group. Still, with the two best arms in baseball at the top, a strong ratio guy (Hudson), a potential 180 K guy (McDonald), and a cheap/solid arm (Wandy), I like this group given the constraints I was working under.

I also love my bullpen arms. You might be saying to yourself ‘but Ray you only have one closer,’ and that’s fair, but look at those four arms. That quartet of relievers should be good for 10 strikeouts per nine innings. They are also likely to flat out kill it in ERA and WHIP. In fact, that foursome could very easily dust both Kershaw and Verlander in ERA, WHIP, K/9… and they have the chance to pick up a few saves as well. Basically, if everything goes according to plan, I’ll win Ks, ERA and WHIP. Wins, should be solid enough, and with an injury or poor performance here or there I could get some lucky saves love as well. Remember, only 23 round in this draft, so there would be plenty of time to add more depth to a unit that is filled with power arms in the reserve rounds.

So the staff is impressive. What about the offense, is it offensive like stinky cheese?

My duo at catcher is strong. In a 15 team league to get a duo that is capable of doing the things of Wieters and Jason – gotta like that.

A-Gone is about as good a bet to go .300 with 100 RBIs as any first baseman in baseball not named Pujols or Votto. Sandoval is a potential .300-25 guy at the other corner if he can avoid that third helping of plantains at dinner (his career bests would leave him with a .330-25-90 line). Up the middle I’ve got solid but boring Scutaro. He’s not likely to blow blast past .300 this year (see his Player Profile). Escobar is a solid add for the speed, but there are some questions about his overall game (see his Player Profile). At corner infield LaRoche is boring but does he ever put up numbers in the counting categories. Rutledge doesn’t have a big league season under his belt, but there’s 15/15 potential there.

The outfield is solid. I’ve got Bruce and Cruz for some pop, and then went all-around game with Crawford and Victorino. Questions abound about what Crawford has left to give, and if Victorino can hang on for another season (see his Player Profile), but if they are both healthy there no disputing that the results could potential lead to a bounty of offense. Markakis isn’t a big name, but since most of the big names went off the board while I was grabbing my two arms, he was a strong fallback play for my squad. Ditto on Gardner who people forget averaged 48 steals and 92 runs scored in 2010-11.

So to wrap it up. The offense has solid speed (Gardner, Escobar, Victorino and Crawford). There’s some decent pop but nothing over the top. I had to take chances on talent that was coming back from injury as the depressed value allowed the fellas to be available for me to roster well later than they would be if they were coming off a healthy 2012 (Sandoval, Crawford, Markakis, Gardner). If that foursome of players all play 150 games then this offense will be pretty decent for a 15 team league.

Is it a perfect team? No sir. Is it a solid enough team that I could compete with it? I think the answer is yes. However, there are certain health risks on offense, and how those players perform in 2013 will likely determine how this team will ultimately finish after I spent my top two picks on the best lefty-righty duo anyone in the fantasy game could put together in 2013..

For the full results click on the link to MLB.com Draft.

MLB.com_SlowDraft-RESULTS

Don’t forget to get your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

2013 FSTA LEAGUE

In 2011 I was the FSTA Champion even though I selected Carl Crawford in the first round (he appeared in just 130 games hitting .255 with 65 runs and 18 steals in his worst season of more than 100 games played.). In 2012 I had another first round selection fail to live up to expectations as Evan Longoria had an injury filled campaign. This time I finished in 11th out of 13 teams. Embarrassing. I’m back for blood in 2013. Here’s how the just completed draft went down in Las Vegas (I love vodka and Red Bull by the way… just thought I would share that).

13 teams, Mixed League, 5×5
14 hitters: C, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI, CI, OF, OF, OF, OF, OF, UT
Nine pitchers (any combination of SPs and Rps)
Six bench spots

Here’s the team I selected out of the #6 hole (you can see the results of the entire draft at the RT Sports Link). The number in parenthesis is the round the player was drafted.

C: Joe Mauer (5), Russell Martin (21)
1B: Adam LaRoche (12)
2B: Howie Kendrick (10)
3B: Martin Prado (6)
SS: Hanley Ramirez (2)
MI/CI: Asdrubal Cabrera (7), Kevin Youkilis (14)
OF: Andrew McCutchen (1), B.J. Upton (3), Jay Bruce (4), Coco Crisp (18), Denard Span (19)
UT: Mark Reynolds (20)

SP: James Shields (8), Max Scherzer (9), Tim Lincecum (11), Tim Hudson (16), Wandy Rodriguez (22), Shaun Marcum (23), Edinson Volquez (25), Erasmo Ramirez (28)
RP: J.J. Putz (13), Joel Hanrahan (15), Jason Grilli (17), Sean Marshall (29)

BENCH: Chris Young (24), Jemile Weeks (26), Justin Maxwell (27)

So how did this team turn out? Let me explain how things evolved.

I almost took Joey Votto in round one, but instead went for the more well-rounded game of McCutchen.

In the second I nearly took Jose Reyes. Ultimately I went for HanRam who has more power and qualifies at two spots (SS, 3B). I worry a bit about Reyes playing on Astro Turf, the fact that he is been hurt a fair amount, and that he doesn’t steal bases like he once did.

Round three I grabbed B.J. Upton – who now gets to play with his brother Justin Upton in Atlanta. After three rounds I felt like I had three guys who could all go 20/20. I like that.

In Round four I took the power bat of Bruce, who in my eyes isn’t much different than Ginacarlo Stanton who was taken in the first round. Bruce was another strong pick, but his selection caused a problem. Ramirez/Upton/Bruce could get 1,500+ at-bats with a batting average of .260. That’s not a strong start in that category. So, in order to address that situation my next two picks were guys who should be strong batting average plays – Mauer and Prado. I don’t normally take a catcher this early, but Mauer is pretty much a lock for a .300 average. I just hope he plays 140 games. Prado, who was just dealt to Arizona (which could help his offensive game out a wee bit), is another guy with a batting average floor of about .285. He makes contact, steals a few bags, and should score a ton of runs hitting near the top of the D’backs batting order. He also qualifies at third base and the outfield as well which doesn’t hurt.

Noticing that the middle infield was getting really thin, I took Cabrera for my MI spot. I’d be happy with a slight improvement on last year’s numbers (.270-16-68-70-9). Even a repeat would be alright. Jemile Weeks is a forgotten man but just 12 months ago people thought we could be looking at a .280 hitting, 30 steal guy at second base.

Youkilis and Reynolds are my corner infield options. Neither is great, but I should be able to cobble together something solid there. LaRoche at first base is boring but he did hit 33 homers with 100 RBIs last year. I’d rather have him in the 12th round than Ryan Howard in the 5th.

My outfield has an impressive top-3 (McCutchen, Upton, Bruce). Crisp has a great fro, and he’s stolen at least 32 bases each of the last three years. Span has a .285, 95 run season in him in Washington. I’m telling ya. For support I rostered Young and Maxwell, both of whom have huge holes in their games. Still, both have the talent to make a run at a 20/20 season. I only need one to hit.

I did my normal waiting thing on starters, and I like how it turned out. Shields and Scherzer can win 30 games with 400 plus Ks. You don’t think so? Lincecum could win 15 games and strike out 200 too, even if you don’t think he can. As I noted at the draft table, I think Lincecum in the 11th has every chance of matching Yovani Gallardo who was taken in the 9th. Hudson/Wandy/Marcum might all be the same hurler, but as 4-6 starters I like a trio that is going to be solid in the ratio categories (3.50 ERA, 1.25ish WHIP). Volquez has a huge arm (see his Player Profile). No one seems to think much of my Erasmo pick. Hey, the guy pitches for the Mariners, had a 1.00 WHIP an a 4.00 K/BB ratio over 59 innings last season. I’ll take a shot on that.

In the bullpen – huge arms abound. Putz and Hanrahan, if healthy, should give me 70 saves. Those that think Putz is at the end of his rope aren’t looking at the numbers (or the contract extension he was given by the Diamondbacks). Grilli has never been a closer, but he struck out 13.8 batters per nine innings last season and had a 4.09 K/BB ratio. I like that and so should you. Marshall is the best left handed setup man in the NL. If Aroldis Chapman starts as planned, guess who is the #2 option in Cincy for 9th inning work? It’s Marshall who would only be behind Jonathan Broxton, you know the guy who struck out 6.98 batters per nine innings last season, only four batters below his career mark of 10.96. Broxton is also a year removed from a 6.39 BB/9 mark. Sure it was 12.2 innings, but that should make you nervous if you plan on counting on Mr. Broxton.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: September 5, 2012

(1) Ryan Vogelsong struggling for Giants.

(2) Kenley Jansen to return in September.

(3) Zack Greinke finally finding his groove with Angels.

(4) Andrew McCutchen back on track. Can he hold off Melky Cabrera?

(5) Adam LaRoche big time run producer.

(6) Jesus Montero solid in 2nd half.

(7) Alfonso Soriano powering the ball.

(8) Mark Reynolds also powering the ball.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust – Wk 18: Did We Learn Anything?

On Monday each week I take a look at the fantasy baseball game breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances of late – not just positive outings mind you, but I’ll also delve into some of the players that have been sucking wind of late. Can you use this information to your benefit over at DailyJoust?

To get your daily fantasy baseball fix make sure you head over to DailyJoust.com to set your salary cap club.

GAINERS OF THE WEEK

Yovani Gallardo (+31, $359K)
In three of his last five starts he’s allowed one run, and in four of six he’s allowed one or no runs. Despite that, his ERA has only gone down from 4.14 to 3.92. Why? Because in the other two outings Gallardo allowed 11 runs in 10.2 innings. So is the case with Gallardo. One game he’s great, the next a total disaster. In the end Gallardo is what he is. Check out the numbers for this season compared to his career levels.

2012: 9.00 K/9, 3.59 BB/9, 1.35 GB/FB, 1.32 WHIP
Career: 9.21 K/9, 3.47 BB/9, 1.23 GB/FB, 1.29 WHIP

He may never take the next step to true greatness, but if you run him out there every time he takes the hill the end result will include wins, passable ratios, an a big strikeout total.

Adam LaRoche (+21, $127K)
It doesn’t make a hell of a lot of sense, but we know it to be true. For whatever reason, and there really is no rational explanation for it, Adam is simply a better hitter in the second half of the season. For his career his OPS goes up .129 points after the All-Star Break (.897 to .768). He’s done even better this year. In a mere 24 games LaRoche has gone deep eight times, knocked in 18 runs, scored 15 times, hit .348 and posted a 1.035 OPS, .199 points better than his first half mark. I’m unable to explain how LaRoche continually does it, so I’ll just report that he does, in fact, do it.

Wade Miley (+40, $397K)
His ERA has gone up three quarters of a run over his last six outings, but he’s still sporting a 2.98 mark for the year. Showing few signs of slowing, Wade has allowed three walks in his last four starts while he’s punched out 25 batters, a surprisingly total given his mere 6.75 K/9 mark on the year (the low walk total is expected given his 1.71 per nine mark on the year). His skill set scream out 3.98 ERA not the 2.98 that it actually is, but he has been remarkably consistent this year. He’s also been amazing in four starts during the day with a 4-0 record, 0.36 ERA and 0.67 WHIP.

Chris Tillman (+109, $362K)
The last time he took the hill was a bit rough (5 R in 5 IP), but he’s won each of his last three starts and through five outings he has a 2.70 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Unfortunately his K/BB ratio is 2.22, pretty much the league average, ditto for his 1.03 GB/FB ratio. He’s also posted a HR/9 mark that is about half of his career rate this year, all of which paints Tillman as a guy who is faring pretty well while at the same time not really deserving of all the success he’s attained.

LOSERS OF THE WEEK

Tyler Colvin, (-28, $55K)
Through 243 at-bats Colvin has been impressive with a .280 average, 13 homers and 43 RBIs. Unfortunately people were expecting a lot more after he hit .339 with five homers and 17 RBIs in June. I warned ya. Did you listen? In 26 games since then Colvin has hit .233, and though he has gone deep five times in that stretch the last time he hit a ball into the seats was July 6th, a full month ago. Colvin  has regressed to being the type of hitter he is – one that can have success if used in the right situation, but not necessarily someone who should be in a fantasy lineup every day without question.

Yu Darvish (-72, $298K)
The good. He’s won 11 games and struck out 145 batters in just 127.1 innings. The bad. He’s walked 70 batters, the fourth worst mark in baseball, an as a result both his ERA (4.38) and WHIP (1.41) are way worse than a league average hurler despite the fact that batters have a very difficult time producing hits off him (his OPS against is just .601). His performance has also taken a decided turn for the worst as he’s allowed 21 runs over his last four starts (spanning 23.2 innings). It’s getting harder and harder to throw him out there unless you are in desperate need of strikeouts.

Jonathan Lucroy (-33, $78K)
People seem to think this guy is Mike Piazza Jr. He’s not. Though he’s hitting .323 with a .920 OPS, he’s hit a mere .200 with a .646 OPS in eight games since he’s been back off the DL. Given that he owns a career .272 batting average and .720 OPS, which hitter do you think he is more likely to be the rest of the way – Mike Piazza or Jonathan Lucroy?

Jarrod Parker (-34, $353K)
Parker has allowed six runs in three of his last 10 starts, and as a result his ERA sits at 3.44, the highest it has been since May 18th. He’s actually done a much better job limiting the free passes as he’s issued just five batters in four games, and he’s also struck out 19 batters in that time. Overall he’s been impressive with that 3.44 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, but it’s fair to question whether or not he is starting to wear down given that he has thrown 130.2 innings this season after tossing 136.1 last season.

DAILY CONTEST

Today you can sign up for the King Arthur’s $50 Free Roll on DailyJoust. No entry free is required to get a chance to play the game and earn your free chance to take home part of the $50 prize pool. All games that start at 7:05 PM EDT or later are open to add players to your daily fantasy baseball squad. So get over to DailyJoust, put together your one day lineup, and get ready to win some free $.

By Ray Flowers

Fantasy Beat – Are You Buying or Selling?

Justin Fensterman and Trevor Ray discuss players to buy and sell at this midpoint in the season. They will discuss guys like Giancarlo Stanton, Pedro Alvarez, R.A. Dickey, Mike Trout, Derek Holland, Adam LaRoche and Trevor Plouffe.

Listen to the Audio.

A Wacky Monday

photo © 2010 Brian Garrett | more info (via: Wylio)

There’s no rhythm or reason at all with my report today – I’m completely flying by the seat of my pants. That’s what happens when you are up late with a special lady. You just say forget it when it comes to your work and daydream about spending all your time with her.

Mitchell Boggs, the one-time closer for the Cardinals, appears likely to be demoted when the club brings Skip Schumaker back off the DL. Boggs has had a few rough spots this year no doubt, but his ratios are all still pretty darn good (3.66 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 8.69 K/9, 4.75 K/BB). Trust me, I get why the club would send Boggs to Triple-A while holding on to Ryan Franklin – he’s a vet with a ton of end of the game experience – but if this was purely a baseball decision how in the world would Franklin remain on the roster with a 9.20 ERA, 1.98 WHIP, 3.07 K/9 and 1.00 K/BB over the younger, harder throwing, and more productive Boggs? Since we’re talking about the Cardinals’ bullpen, you saw that they’ve likely found their 9th inning man after Fernando Salas had a week for the ages with four saves and a win in five appearances, right? Beat that for fantasy value in a H2H setup. Through 20.2 innings he has 20 Ks, has only issued five free passes, and is sporting a 1.87 ERA. If you grabbed him off waivers you might have hit the jackpot after a month of trying to read the tea leaves in St. Louis.

Kevin Gregg has a loss, two blown saves and an ERA of nearly 8.50 over his last six outings. Meanwhile, Koji Uehara continues to hum along with vastly superior numbers including a 2.70 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 10.35 K/9 and a 4.60 K/BB ratio. Honestly, it’s pretty shocking that the Orioles haven’t made the move to Koji. Perhaps they just aren’t convinced that he can pitch on back-to-back days, but at this point I’m finding it nearly impossible to work up an argument that would favor Gregg working the ninth over Uehara.

Adam LaRoche is likely to be placed on the DL because of his injured shoulder. He can’t drive the ball a lick, his current SLG is .258, and he just isn’t right. If the club follows through with their plan that would put Mike Morse back into a prominent role since he would likely see most of the starts at first. Morse was everyone’s darling after a massive spring, but he failed to capitalize on his chance early in the year. He’s still only gone deep twice and scored five runs, horrible marks, but he does have 12 hits in his last 30 at-bats (.400) so he might be worth an add as a corner infield option for those of you looking for a bat.

Joe Mauer hopes to return to play in an extended spring training game on Tuesday. He’ll likely play in a few of those games before heading out on a minor league rehab assignment. There is no set date for a return, but 10-14 days seems reasonable at this point. We all knew he would be out two months, right? In case you forgot he was last seen on a big league diamond on April 12th.

Jered Weaver was 6-0 with a 0.99 ERA in April. May has completely flipped his performance on its ear as he is 0-4 with a 5.25 ERA. Here is a wonderful diddy from Elias. Weaver is the first pitcher since 1884 to win his first six decisions and then lose his next four. The last guy to do it was Jumbo McGinnis for the St. Louis Browns of the American Association. In case you were wondering, Jumbo posted a 2.95 ERA on his way to winning 102 games in his career.

Finally, if you’re sending in any questions, let me know which superhero movie you are mostly looking forward to this year:

Captain America
Green Lantern
Thor
X-Men: First Class

Around the Horn: May 19, 2011

(1) Jake Peavy twirls masterpiece. Should you be buying?

(2) Colby Rasmus, Matt Holiday and Lance Berkman hurt.

(3) Fernando Salas the Cards’ closer? Not so fast.

(4) Adam LaRoche = abysmal. Is a turn around coming?

(5) Injured players update – Joe Mauer, Nelson Cruz and Josh Hamilton.

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: Lee Isn’t Only Newsmaker

All anyone will be talking about today is the Cliff Lee signing, and while I too will lead off with his improbable deal with the Phillies, there are some other moves that are worthy of at least throwing a paragraph at.

Cliff Lee: Ted Carlson already covered the Phillies swopping in a and nabbing the top pitcher on the market out from under the Yankees and Rangers in Phil-Lee Surprise. Here is my favorite line from the piece. “That’s the best quartet that Philly has seen since Boyz II Men.” Classic. Debate will rage about if this is the best foursome of pitchers since the Braves’ in the 1990, the Orioles in the early 70′s or the Indians in 50′s, but let’s just say Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt is a flat out amazing group of arms. As pointed out by ESPN’s Jayson Stark, the top-4 now sports the 2010 major league leader in Wins Above Replacement (Lee), the NL leader in WHIP (Oswalt at 1.03), the NL Cy Young winner (Halladay), and the best left-handed pitcher in the Senior Circuit after 7/1 (Hamels posted a 2.28 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 9.4 K/9 and a 4.24 K/BB mark over his final 118.1 IP). As was also pointed out by @ggiants on Twitter, the World Series Champion San Francisco Giants beat all four of those pitchers in the 2010 playoffs, so don’t go coronating the Phillies as the 2011 champs just yet.

Adam LaRoche/Derrek Lee: It would appear that the Nationals, Orioles and D’backs all need a starting first baseman, and these two are obviously the top-2 options on the free agent market. Both hitters bring solid bats and can be expected to hit 20 homers with at least 80 RBI, and while that isn’t overly exciting by any means, there is nary a team in the game that wouldn’t take that kind of production if the price was right. Lee is likely to command bigger dollars even though he is coming off a slightly depressed season (.260-19-80) and despite the fact that he is four years old at 35. Either one would be a nice pickup at this point with all the big names flying off the free agent board, and neither is going to be poor with teams throwing around money like a drunken frat boy at a gentleman’s club.

Russell Martin: It appears a near certainty that Martin will join the Yankees which sends the wheels moving (he’ll need to pass a physical to make it official). (1) Martin will sign a one year deal with the club, though it’s really a 2-year deal since Martin will be arbitration eligible for the 2012 season, so the Yankees can choose to keep him for one more season if they so desire. (2) It appears that despite coming back off hip surgery, the Yankees are confident that Martin will be able to catch the majority of the time. (3) His signing means that Jesus Montero will likely get some more time to work on his glove in the minors. The dude is ready to hit big league pitching, but many “in the know” worry if he will ever be able to handle the rigors of catching everyday in the big leagues. (4) The real question at this point is what does Martin have left? The hip issue is a huge concern in it’s own right given that a catcher sometimes has to squat and all, but as concerning is the lack of any type of production from his bat. From 2006-08 Martin’s average season was .285-14-74-80-16 as he was a fantasy darling. Since then he has produced an average yearly outing of .249-6-40-54-9, which hardly the stuff of legend. Hitting in a loaded lineup in New York, in a great hitter’s park will help, but I would like his outlook a lot better if he wasn’t being counted on to catch four or five days a week. Don’t be swayed by the love of all things Yankees when considering Martin on draft day, 2011.

Hideki Matsui: The Athletics will announce that they have signed Hideki Matsui after he completes his physical (reports are the deal will be for about $4.25 million for one year). It would appear that Godzilla will be asked to take over as the primary DH in Oakland now that Jack Cust has signed with the Mariners (you can read about that move in Hot Stove: December 8, 2010). Matsui finished 2010 well, and that is putting it mildly, as he batted .309 with 11 homers and 37 RBI, not to mention a .955 OPS, over his last 60 games. The end result was a .274-21-84 line that gave at least those three numbers in each of his last five seasons of 450 at-bats (he hit “only” 16 homers in 2003 when he batted .287 with 106 RBI). Oakland isn’t a great place to hit, and it’s not like their lineup is overflowing with talent, but with Matsui you know what you are going to get.

By Ray Flowers