Players That Are Hot

I’m tired. I had a long day filled with lots of work from writing, editing and posting of football, baseball and hockey stories, including a bunch of rather fantastic hockey articles at Fanball as well. And yes, before you ask, some of them were written by yours truly.

Joey Votto continues to bash pitchers with alacrity over the final month of the season. Votto went 4-for-5 on Wednesday night as he pushed his average up to almost .370 on the month. Votto is now hitting .308 with 22 homers and 74 RBI in a mere 433 ABs on the season. If we push those numbers out to 550 ABs we end up with a .308-28-94 line, and that would obviously suggest that a potential .300-30-100 season could be in the way in 2010 from this sweet swinging lefty.

Votto’s teammate, Homer Bailey, seems to have finally, f-i-n-a-l-l-y figured things out at the big league level. Though he has a 5.02 ERA on the year, he has finally started to throw strikes and the results have been pretty striking. After allowing two runs in six innings against the Pirates Bailey has now allowed three or fewer earned runs in each of his last seven starts while posting a 1.99 ERA. It’s a small sample size for sure, but keep his name in mind in the late rounds in 2010 as a selection of Bailey could result in a nice return.

Welcome back to hitting right-handed Carlos Guillen. Guillen went deep from both sides of the plate on Wednesday night in just his second game since returning to action from that injured shoulder, and this was just the second game that he has even attempted to hit right-handed in. This was the fourth time in his career that he had gone deep from both sides of the dish in the same game.

What is it about the second half and Adam LaRoche? You think it’s frustrating as a fantasy owner – can you just imagine just how hard it is on LaRoche when he knows, he literally knows, he is gonna stink for about two plus months before turning into a dominating force at the dish. LaRoche is hitting .355 with 36 RBI in 47 games since returning to Atlanta. Any doubt where he wants to sign when his contract is up after the season? Jeez, this is another first baseman isn’t it? I’m telling you, they are just everywhere

Another youngster, Bud Norris, has looked pretty solid this season for the Astros even if it hasn’t always been a smooth ride. He tossed six scoreless innings at the Cards on Wednesday to lower his ERA to just barely over 1.50 in his last four starts. With 54 Ks in 55.2 innings he has shown the ability to put hitters away, and as they say, you can’t teach stuff, and he’s got that in spades. A bright future this kid has (channeling my inner Yoda).

I thought that David Ortiz was washed up? He may be hitting only .234 but he has 25 homers and 88 RBI, so he has still been fairly productive despite an OPS below .800. OK, he is only sort of washed up.

Nick Punto hitting .327 in September as the Twins try and clay there way to the playoffs. Just saying.

How stupid do the Red Sox feel right now? John Smoltz worked another night of magic for the Redbirds allowing just two runs over six innings against the Astros. In six starts with Cardinals his ERA is 3.18 and his WHIP 1.00. With the Red Sox try on an 8.32 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP. Guess he was tipping those pitches eh? Either that or he and/or Dave Duncan made a deal with Lucifer that involved someone giving over their soul.

We got ourselves quite the race for the NL RBI crown. Here is how things stand after action on Wednesday night:

Prince Fielder – 131
Ryan Howard – 130
Albert Pujols – 129

They all play first base by the way, further proof of just how loaded that position is in the game today. No idea how the situation resolves itself, but can you really bet against Mr. Pujols when it has anything to do with baseball?

By Ray Flowers

Free Agency – A Look Ahead

With the season nearing it’s conclusion, at least from a fantasy perspective, I thought I would look forward to the 2010 season, something that Mike Sheets in Under the Tag, and Ted Carlson in Five Tool Blog have started to do. I’ll take a bit of a different take not listing my top-10′s or top-30 overall but instead I’ll hit on a some of the free agents out there that could be plying their trade for a new team come next season.

Carlos Delgado: Looks like his ’09 season might end with a mere 94 at-bats on the back of his ball card do to that right hip surgery. He hit 38 homers with 115 RBI last season but he will be 38 next year and hit just 24 home runs while batting .258 in 2007. He’ll have to sign an incentive laden deal, perhaps to DH.

Adam LaRoche: Again one of the hottest hitters in the game in the second half (.314-9-24 with a .919 OPS in 44 games). Maybe he should start training really hard in January so that he could hit like this in the first half. No reason the Braves don’t bring him back.

Placido Polanco: Anyone out there looking for the prototypical #2 hitter? His average has slipped this season (.277 versus a career .303 mark), but he is on the cusp of a career-high in RBI (just four short with 63) while producing another excellent contact rate (0.93 do to only 35 strikeouts on the year). This is likely as good as it gets at this point, but that isn’t all that bad is it?

Miguel Tejada: A huge question mark this coming offseason. Is Tejada the man who hit .329 with a .830 OPS in the first half of the aging/slowing veteran who has hit just .255 with a .645 OPS since the All-Star break? Might end up at third base wherever he signs.

Adrian Beltre: Wear a cup Adrian. That’s all I have to say.

Chone Figgins: Not the prototypical corner infielder since he has an almost total lack of pop. Still, don’t know of many teams that would turn away a .300 hitting, 40 steal, 100 run option at the top of their lineup.

Melvin Mora: Trying to prove that he still has some game left in that soon to be 38 year old body of his. After a pathetic first half (.259/.326/.335) he has been pretty solid the past two weeks (.405-3-7 in 11 games).

Jason Bay: The Sox won’t let him go, not after another big-time offensive season (.261-31-98-87-12 in just 456 ABs).

Johnny Damon: Will he remain with the Yankees? Since he scores 90 runs every year and will be coming off the best power season of his career he will likely get one more major dollar deal. Still, he is likely best suited for DH at this stage of his career. My brother’s 16 month old daughter almost throws as well.

Matt Holliday: A Scott Boras client, Holliday has hit like Stan Musial since joining the Birds (.378-11-39-31 with a 1.125 OPS in 156 ABs). Don’t know the last time you checked, but in case you hadn’t heard, Boras is the biggest pain in the a – - in the universe, that is if you are a team trying to sign a player. Boras/Holliday won’t be giving the Red Birds a discount, and Boras will get his man the money he “deserves” on the market. Still, the Cardinals simply can’t let him go can they?

Jermaine Dye: Five straight years of at least 25 homers and 75 RBI (once he knocks in three more runs this year), Dye is as consistent a run producing right fielder as there is in the game. He will be 36 in June but he should still have a few productive years left despite his profound struggles of late (.184 in his last 185 ABs).

Vlad Guerrero: Injured to start the year Vlad has been, well Vlad, hitting .298 with a .904 OPS since the All-Star break. He may be limited to DH duties the rest of his career but the man can still hit .300 with 25 home runs if healthy.

Aubrey Huff: Hasn’t lived up to last season’s huge effort (.304-32-108-96) and has looked lost at the plate of late (he has hit just .215 over his last 44 games and .210 since the start of August). He’ll be hard pressed to sign a deal that exceeds a couple of years at anything remotely approaching his current level of pay ($8 million).

By Ray Flowers

Trade Deadline Diary

I’m toast, and no I didn’t spend all day on the beach or at the local tanning salon. From the moment I woke up this morning it’s been all baseball. First I did the Fanball Podcast with Kyle Elrink which you can listen to every Monday-Friday from 8-9 AM, and after that I did my yearly deadline day dairy detailing all the trades of the day.

To read the entirety of my commentary on every move of the day you can visit my Trade Day Dairy. Here are some of the noteworthy highlights of that piece.

PEAVY TO WHITE SOX

White Sox Receive: Jake Peavy
Padres Receive: Clayton Richard, Aaron Poreda, Adam Russell and Dexter Carter

“A Cy Young award winner was moved today, but it wasn’t the one everyone expected it would be (Roy Halladay appears to have made it through the deadline without being moved). Jake Peavy is now a White Sox… At this point it would seem like a fair bet that we won’t see him on the hill for the club until at least September.”

MARTINEZ TO RED SOX

Red Sox Receive: Victor Martinez
Indians Receive: Justin Masterson, Nick Hagadone and Bryan Price

“Does this deal increase Martinez’s value? Do you go to a bar on Friday night hoping to find a warm body to spend some time with? Of course it helps V-Mart’s value. A switch hitter, Martinez will likely smack balls of the Green Monster with great frequency (he has hit .313 with a .913 OPS in 67 career at-bats at Fenway).”

WASHBURN TO TIGERS

Tigers Receive: Jarrod Washburn
Mariners Receive: Luke French and Mauricio Robles

“The Tigers receive the man with the third best ERA in the AL at 2.64 and the second best WHIP in the junior circuit at 1.07… Dating back to the start of June, Washburn is only 5-3, but his ERA is 2.02 and his WHIP has been 0.98. Yeah, he has been damn good. Still, the free agent to be has a few concerns.”

ROLEN TO REDS

Reds Receive: Scott Rolen
Blue Jays Receive: Edwin Encarnacion, Zach Stewart and Josh Roenicke

“Rolen will be 35 years old next season and one with an $11 million price tag, but after watching the Reds’ third baseman hit .213 this season apparently the Reds felt it was worth it to add the gamer to their club. Time will tell…Rolen has been able to provide a lot of value at the dish this season, though all those shoulder injuries have pretty much robbed him of the ability to drive the ball deep.”

Edwin Encarnacion was once thought of as a potential all-star with 30 homer power…This might be an example of a change of scenery really helping to boost a player’s value.”

JOHNSON TO MARLINS

Marlins Receive: Nick Johnson and $1.8 million (to pay his salary)
Nationals Receive: Aaron Thompson

“The Marlins added a plus defender and a solid hitter to take over at first base which should allow them to move Jorge Cantu back to third forcing Emilio Bonifacio to a reserve role where he belongs…This is another professional bat for the Marlins who are only six games behind the Phillies and three games out of the Wild Card.”

CABRERA TO TWINS

Twins Receive: Orlando Cabrera
A’s Receive: Tyler Ladendorf

“Cabrera has been on fire hitting .373 with nine steals in July helping to erase a putrid start to the season. An established veteran who brings a nice skill set as a middle infield option in mixed leagues.”

LAROCHE TO BRAVES

Braves Receive: Adam LaRoche
Red Sox Receive: Casey Kotchman

“LaRoche returns to ATL where he enjoyed a nice start to his career. In his last two seasons with the club (2005 and 2006) he hit .259 with 20 homers and .285 with 32 bombs, solid numbers without setting the world on fire…No reason to think that with everyday work that LaRoche won’t be able to be what he has always been – a fine corner infield option in mixed leagues.”

To read the entirety of my thoughts on every more of the day, hopefully they are coherent, feel free to give my Trade Day Dairy a thorough read.

By Ray Flowers

Will it Ever End?

The Pirates are at it again, and by “it” I mean the systematic dismantling of their major league roster as they plan for the mythical “future” when at some point they will be a good club once again. I don’t know when that will happen, hell I don’t know if will ever happen, but they are certainly giving it the old college try. Before I get to that, and is it just me or have the Pirates sucked up and abnormally huge portion of media attention of late, I want to let you all know that I’m not just going to bash the Pirates today, I’ll also bash other figures in the game of baseball as well. Maybe one of your “guys” will be on the list and you can leave a comment for me either agreeing or disagreeing with me on my take on each guy.

Today the Pirates dealt John Grabow and Tom Gorzelanny to the Cubs for Kevin Hart, Jose Ascanio and Josh Harrison. The people in Pittsburgh are going to need to have their players to wear neon signs with their names as they likely have no idea who and the heck the majority of these guys are at this point. I don’t have the list in front of me, and frankly I’m past the point of really caring, but off the top of my head the Pirates have given up the following players recently.

1B: Adam LaRoche
2B: Freddy Sanchez
SS: Jack Wilson
OF:Jason Bay, Nate McLouth, Xavier Nady, Nyjer Morgan
P: Ian Snell, Grabow, Gorzelanny

I’m sure there are guys I’m leaving out, but honestly, can the Pirates really say they are a better organization without those men? They might be a stronger organization, but their major league club is much, much worse. If “they” try to claim otherwise I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see their noses grow like Pinocchio’s.

Oh, and before I leave the Pirates just thought I would point out that Nyjer Morgan is hitting .482 since the All-Star break. I’m just saying.

David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez reportedly tested positive for steroids back in 2003. What a shock. Still, how is this information becoming public? Why did the court bother to make the records secret if people were going to openly flaunt that secrecy ruling and just leak out the info? Speaking of that list, why don’t the powers that be just dump out the whole list rather than one or two names leak out every month? Bottom line for me is that there is no way to verify what happened in 2003 and if players tested “positive” for something that was legal in baseball at the time, why is everyone flipping out? If you look hard enough you can probably find an NFL player who tests positive for steroids every week, yet no one seems to care in that sport do they?

Delusional Player of the Week – Russ Ortiz who still doesn’t get why the Astros weren’t kissing his feet for his work on the hill for them this season was released immediately after his outing on Thursday in which he allowed nine runs while recording just seven outs. With a 5.57 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Russ doesn’t think he deserves a raise.

Brandon Webb had a mysterious “setback” in his attempt to return from a shoulder issue, and at this point he is being sent for more tests. “He’s not probably making the progress we were hoping for, so I think we have to make an assessment about what to do next,” GM Josh Byrnes said. So let me see if I have this straight. Webb’s shoulder has been a concern since last off-season when the club couldn’t get insurance on a potential long-term deal with Webb when the tests raised the issues in his shoulder. No matter, Webb continued to pitch and made all of one start before heading to the DL. It now appears nearly certain that he will require surgery, and if he does it is far from certain that he will be ready to go at the start of 2010. So here is the question – (a) why didn’t Webb undergo surgery last off-season if this was a concern or (b) why didn’t he do something differently, training wise, in order to avoid this outcome (perhaps he did but there was no stopping it)? Furthermore, why hasn’t he just undergone the procedure by this point since it’s clear he is done for the year? I would avoid surgery at all costs too, but that decision may end up costing Webb all of 2009 and some of 2010.

Joel Zumaya will head under the knife at some point in August to fix his shoulder, and his 2009 campaign is over after just 31 innings. Zumaya can still rush it up there with anyone in the game, his average heater this year was an astounding 99.3 mph, but dude simply cannot stay healthy. Is all of this the result of a bad body, poor luck or too much Guitar Hero? Beats me.

By Ray Flowers

Busy Day in Beantown

The Red Sox made two deals on Wednesday, and while neither one can match the earth shaking move from last season when they dealt the head case that is Manny Ramirez for Jason Bay, each move was meant to tweak a Red Sox roster that is need of a pick me up. In what follows I’ll give my thoughts on both moves, as well as spending a few moments detailing the demise of professional baseball in Pittsburgh.

Adam LaRoche was traded from the Pirates to the Red Sox in exchange for two minor leaguers you have never heard of – SS Argenis Diaz and SP Hunter Strickland. The reason you have never heard of them is that they are both young and haven’t yet appeared above Double-A. If you want to read more about all three guys and the move in general, please give LaRoche Headed to Beantown a read as I spend a good bit of time breaking things down. The early consensus is that the Pirates got a guy who can field with the best of them but hits like his eyes are closed, as well as a nice control artist who one day might be a solid 4th starter. Should the club have gotten more for the power-hitting LaRoche? Working against them was the fact that LaRoche is scheduled to be a free agent at the end of the season, and teams are shying away from adding talent that they can’t control as the downturn in the economy has finally begun to make teams cautious of those “rent-a-players” who only spend a couple of months with the club before signing with someone else the following year.

Regardless of that, I just don’t get it. Three weeks ago I wrote Will It Ever End? in which I questioned the commitment to winning in Pittsburgh. The deal currently being discussed has done nothing but buttress the feelings that I illuminated in that previous piece. I was ready to continue to lambaste the Pirates organization for their further ineptitude but my colleague, the always astute Ted Carlson, beat me to it with his piece Updated Pirates Scorecard. I could add my two cents, but I think the two links do justice to what has become a laughable situation in Pittsburgh. If I was a Pirates fan, I think I would go on permanent strike.

The other deal that the Red Sox made was to send disgruntled SS Julio Lugo to the Cardinals in exchange for struggling outfielder Chris Duncan. As I write this the deal isn’t “official,” but what we believe is that the Red Sox will likely pay the majority of the $13 million that Lugo is due this season and next. As for his work on the field, Lugo has hit .284 in his 109 ABs this season. Injuries to his legs have limited him to just three steals on the year, and without that asset his game isn’t very valuable, but it should be pointed out that has exceeded his career batting average (.271) and OBP (.335) this season (his current OBP is .352). With the Cardinals no longer trusting Khalil Greene at shortstop, and with ample reason, the only man in Lugo’s way to substantial playing time is the .276 hitting Brendan Ryan who has all of one home run and a .313 OBP in 214 at-bats. Do you really think Lugo won’t be able to garner the majority of playing time in St. Louis given that competition? Don’t forget that a move to St. Louis late in the year did wonders to awaken the bat of Felipe Lopez.

As for what the Red Sox got in the deal, Duncan has been a mess this year hitting .227 with five home runs in 260 ABs. Whether or not his back will ever be sufficiently healed to allow him to return to the 20-HR plateau he has reached previously is open for debate, but it’s not debatable that dude simply cannot hit left handed pitching with a .206/.269/.346 career line in 228 ABs. As a result of his struggles this season it is believe that the Sox will send him down for some work in the minors (with the addition of LaRoche there would be no room for him at first, so he will only be called up when the team feels they have a need in the outfield). To me, this is a negligible move and one that lessons his already meager fantasy value.

Overall you gotta like what the Red Sox did on this day. They added two left-handed bats that could potentially provide some nice pop as well as given them two solid veteran type hitters for depth plays if their frontline performers struggle or go down with injury.

By Ray Flowers

Will it Ever End?

The Pirates are at it again, and that isn’t a good thing. For a proud franchise, one that has won nine pennants and five world championships in it’s illustrious history, there is no end in sight to the continual failures of the organization.

Next Year.

That’s the refrain the fans are fed year after year by the front office.

And year after year the refrain is repeated yet again.

For a group of fans that haven’t witnessed their team post a .500 record since Barry Bonds left the club after the 1992 season, their frustration must be at an all-time high. Why do I say that? Well beyond their unbelievable run of futility, the Pirates made a couple of moves in past day or so that has the team, once again, looking to the future. This time the players are voicing their displeasure at the moves.

“It’s not our job to understand the big plan, I guess,” first baseman Adam LaRoche said.

Here is what shortstop Jack Wilson had to say. “We know that they’re looking to the future, which doesn’t say much about 2009. We’re five games out, and we lost two or three of our everyday players…I’ve been here nine years. I’ve seen two or three of these trades every year and still haven’t had a winning season.”

Management, of course, has a different take.

“The upside that we’re gaining is something we can’t pass up,” manager John Russell said.

What moves are we talking about?

The Pirates sent OF Nyjer Morgan, RP Sean Burnett and jack of all trades Eric Hinske out of town in a couple of moves, and in return they netted the talented but enigmatic Lastings Milledge and the talented but unproductive Joel Hanrahan. It really can’t be argued that the club received the more talented players in these deals, but the questions are a plenty.

(1) Can a guy who was banished to the minors a year after hitting 14 home runs while stealing 24 bases be a difference maker? What if that guy was terribly ineffective at the dish this season (.167 in 24 at-bats) prior to his demotion? What if that guy continues to live his life as if no one else matters but himself? Milledge has 20/20 talent, but he has proven thus far to have a .20 cent head.

(2) Does the club really need a 95 mph throwing reliever who failed miserably as a closer this season for the Nationals (five saves, five blown saves)? You can’t teach 95, and Hanrahan does have 128 Ks in his last 117 innings so he certainly has talent, but he is far from a finished product with a career walk rate of 5.04 per nine innings

Beyond these two moves, which again seemed to net the club the more talented options, the question becomes one that the organization must answer to the fans – do they intend to make money or produce a winning squad? Remember, this is a team that let its best player, Jason Bay, go last year in a late season deal and then followed that move up by trading their new “best” player to the Braves when they moved Nate McLouth this season. What kind of message does a club send to it’s fan base when it trades away its number three and four hitters for a couple of prospects, a decidedly average starting pitcher (Charlie Morton), a pitcher no one has heard of in Bryan Morris, a failed reliever in Craig Hansen and a failed outfielder in Brandon Moss? Oh yeah, the club also got third baseman Andy LaRoche but I almost forgot him because he is hitting a whopping .278 with a massive three home runs and a staggeringly mediocre .750 OPS this season.

Look, I’m not a Pirates fan at all, but I can sympathize with the fans of a club that have to pay money to watch an ownership group that continues to say “wait til next year.” My question is, will they ever reach the point of “next year” or is this a conundrum in the same vein as the fact that we think we can never travel the speed of light as Albert Einstein posited many years ago (why is light speed travel not possible you ask? For those of you that care click on the link to Speed of Light and scroll down to “The Ultimate Speed of Light” for a brief description). For the Pirates sake I truly hope next year really is next year, though I still wonder if the Pirates have assembled enough talent to even return to the level of respectability and a .500 record. One can hope, and the eternal optimist in us all surely hasn’t given up on that.

By Ray Flowers