FanDuel Contest: Vegas and $1 Million?

Fantasy baseball may never be the same. Thanks to FanDuel.com, you have a chance to enter a contest to win a free trip to Vegas, oh, and to pocket a grand prize of $200,000. All it will cost you is $10. Interested? If so, and why on earth wouldn’t a chance to seem some Vegas show girls, to put a $20 spot down on the craps table, or to walk away with enough money to put your kids through school not appeal to you?

$1 Million Daily Fantasy Baseball Championship on FanDuel

For the next 13 weeks a winner will be crowned in the $1 million Daily Fantasy Baseball Championship. Each weekly winner will then be flown to Vegas, all expenses paid by FanDuel.com, and given a shot at the $200,000 grand prize. That’s right. Win two weekly matchups and you’ve got $200,000 coming your way. And don’t think that you have to enter hundreds of times to win. And don’t think that you have to enter hundreds of times to win. Jordy Nelson last year entered once, one time, and he ended up in the Finals in Vegas cause he won his weekly matchup. He then proceeded to win that year’s grand prize of $100,000. All from one $10 entry.

So what do you do? You go to FanDuel.com and sign up for the April 5th contest.

You then put together your salary cap team (the rules are very simple and can be found at the top of the page if you follow the link).

You win, you’re rolling in cash. Simple as that.

Who should you have in your lineup? Never say that The Oracle isn’t a nice guy. In the video below I will discuss some of the matchups and some names that you might consider adding to your lineup for your chance to become a very rich person courtesy of FanDuel.com.

Oh, there’s also a little discussion in here about the fantastic start of Adam Wainwright and why you should be a bit nervous if you own Starling Marte or Tony Cingrani.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Hyun-Jin Ryu

Normally in my Player Profile series I like to write about players who are being over drafted because of unwarranted hype, or I focus on players that can be hidden gems of production because people are underestimating their value. Today I’ll do something different. I’ll write up a player who has never thrown an official inning as a professional baseball player in North America…

WHO AM I?

Hyun-Jin Ryu is a 25 year old left-handed hurler from Korea (he’ll be 26 on March 25th). The Dodgers believe that he’s a viable option for their starting rotation, and backing up their belief they shelled out a six year deal for $36 million to attain his services. The Dodgers also had to pay just over $25 million with the posting fee to obtain the rights to sign Ryu, so they’ve invested nearly $62 million dollars in the guy for the next six years. So who is this Ryu and why did the Dodgers spend so much money to acquire a guy who looks an awful lot like a fourth starter?

CAREER ABROAD

Ryu started his professional career in the Korean Baseball Organization in 2006. He was excellent going 18-6 with a 2.23 ERA and 204 punchouts in 201.2 innings and he became the first player to win ROY and MVP in the same season. He then tossed another 200+ innings while winning 17 games with 178 Ks in his second season. In 2008 Ryu competed in the Beijing Olympics including throwing 8.1 innings in the Gold Medal winning game for South Korea. On the downside, Ryu failed to toss 200-innings each season from 2008-2012, but he was an effective arm throughout. Here are his career KBO numbers (he was an All-Star every one of his seven seasons):

98-52, 2.80 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 8.78 K/9, 3.23 K/BB ratio over 1,269 innings
If a pitcher posts those numbers in the big leagues we have a name for him – it’s Adam Wainwright. But those numbers were compiled in the KBO, hardly a league that offers up the same level of competition as major league baseball. That leaves open the question of how his skills will translate to the majors.

* Ryu had Tommy John surgery while he was in high school, so hopefully we won’t have to be worrying about his elbow blowing up, though as we have seen pitchers sometimes do need to have the procedure done twice (think Brian Wilson and Joakim Soria).

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

SCOUTING REPORT

Ryu throws his fastball anywhere from 88-92 mph. He also throws an assortment of slow, and slower, off speed pitches. Given his build, he’s not going to be on the cover of Muscle & Fitness anytime soon, and manager Don Mattingly likened him to David Wells (he’s 6’2” and reported to camp weighing a whopping 255 lbs. which raised some eyebrows, especially when he was having trouble with some of the conditioning work – more on that below). It should also be noted that the baseball is a bit slicker in North America, so that will take some time to get acclimated, and Sandy Koufax worked with Ryu a bit on alternating the grip on his curve ball a bit to help with the transition.

2013 OUTLOOK

The Dodgers have a bunch of options than can turn to in their rotation. Obviously they didn’t lavish millions on Ryu to use him out of the pen, or to send him to the minors, so you have to think he’s going to be part of the mix. My best guess on how the rotation is going to play out follows.

The Locks
Clayton Kershaw
Zack Greinke
Josh Beckett

Almost Certainly In
Hyun-Jin Ryu

Left to Battle for the 5th Spot
Ted Lilly (who I wrote about in Rounding the Bases)
Chad Billingsley
Chris Capuano
Aaron Harang

Obviously the Dodgers have a bounty of arms, and it’s very likely that once they settle on the unit that a couple of these arms will be dealt to shore up other spots on the club.

If I had to guess what type of effort Ryu will offer this season I’d say that he’s appropriately slotted as the 4th starter for the Dodgers. It remains to be seen how Ryu will adapt to American culture, the minor change with the ball and the change in training methods (he famously had some issues with his first training session in camp as he struggled to complete his work. “I realized today that in America, when they do long-distance running, they run really fast,” he said.). There is also the fact that he hasn’t thrown 200 innings since the 2007 season. I’d think that Paul Maholm‘s 2012 effort (13-11, 3.67 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 140 Ks) would be the high water mark for what your expectations should be for Ryu this year, but even that is likely being far too rosie in the old prediction department. I’d let someone else draft Ryu. It would be a big time shock if he emerged as an All-Star caliber player this season so he’s best left for the reserve rounds in mixed leagues. Don’t reach.

• Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Valentine’s Day Special

If you forgot to look at a calendar consider this your public service announcement for the day. It’s Valentine’s Day moron. Go out and get your special someone something special. It doesn’t have to be a diamond ring – though I’m sure those are welcomed – it just has to be something that shows you care. A box of candy (one that doesn’t look like you bought it at the convenient store on the corner would be nice). A stuffed teddy bear like the one above. Hell, if all of that isn’t happening make a card. Nothing says I care like a handmade card. Don’t worry if it looks like it was done by a seven year old. This is one time that it will seem adorable even if you have no artistic talent (for those of you who are interested in the holiday, the History Channel has a nice little section of videos discussing the day).

Before I go and get all soft on you all, and yes I have a special day about to be set in motion (my lady planned an evening for me that is a total surprise. Hopefully I haven’t jinxed it by mentioning it here in this piece), let’s get back to the world of baseball which is the real reason you came to BaseballGuys.com today, not to read my mushy thoughts on the holiday.

Grant Balfour will likely miss 4-6 weeks as he went under the knife on Thursday for a knee issue. The club hopes he will be able to return in time for Opening Day, but that’s obviously an open ended question at this point. Ryan Cook would seem most likely to take over given that he filled the role with aplomb last season in the first half. Some may have forgotten with Cook that he had 14 saves, 21 holds, a 2.09 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 9.82 K/9 mark in 2012. That’s an elite line folks. Some will mention Sean Doolittle as a possible closing option, but the guy literally has less than 75 innings pitched in his career (he’s a converted hitter). He’s got a huge K arm, 11.41 per nine last year, and he walked only 2.09 per nine, but he’s just so inexperienced and really only has one solid pitch at the moment (he threw his fastball 87 percent of the time in ’12).

Trevor Cahill lost 10-15 lbs over the winter. Question. How does Cahill not know how much weight he lost? Did he never weigh himself before (I mean, can he see his toes now or what)? There’s obviously a benefit to getting in better shape. It should take some pressure of Cahill’s legs and give him a bit more oomph at the end of the season. Cahill pushed his K-rate to 7.02 per nine last year, a career best, and more than a batter above his career rate. If he holds on to those gains, and is able to maintain his out of this world 2.69 GB/FB ratio from last season, that ERA (3.78) and WHIP (1.29) could certainly come down.

For those of you looking for some sexy Valentine’s outfits…

Rich Harden threw Wednesday and said that his surgically repaired shoulder felt pretty good. “I’m hoping it’ll feel the same when I start facing hitters. I threw mostly fastballs because I’m trying to get that feel back.” The Twins don’t know exactly yet if Harden would fit best in the bullpen or at the back-end of the rotation, but I would bet that if he’s healthy he’ll be able to get batters out. For his career Harden has struck out 949 batters in 928.1 innings.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

Kyle Lohse is still looking for a team as clubs are still a bit unsure about whether giving him all that cash, and giving up a first round draft pick as compensation is worth it. For more on Lohse see his Player Profile.

Adam Wainwright had a 3.94 ERA and 1.25 WHIP last season, solid numbers indeed but off the pace he set for himself before he had Tommy John surgery. I’m here to tell ya though, he pitched much better than it seemed. Take a look at his xFIP for a quick snapshot of how he performed: 3.32 in 2009, 3.02 in 2010, Tommy John surgery in 2011, 3.23 in 2012. His 8.34 K/9 mark is a five year best, and his 3.54 K/BB ratio was better than his 3.02 career mark. Toss in a career best 1.93 GB/FB ratio (career 1.57), and we have a guy who is primed for a huge season in 2013.

Don’t forget to get your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Barry Zito

The Giants won the World Championship, my thoughts can be found in Nirvana… Again, and Barry Zito was a huge part of that run to greatness. After being left off the roster in the 2010 World Series, Zito proved his mettle by throwing two dominating games against the Cardinals in the NLCS (7.2 IP, 0 ER) and the Tigers in the World Series (5.2 IP, 1 ER). This came on the heels of a season in which he won 15 games for the G-men. Is he back to being someone to target in mixed leagues?

Barry Zito won 12 games in 2010-11. He was also limited to 53.2 innings in 2011, the only time since his rookie season that he has failed to throw 180 innings in a campaign. Those facts, not to mention that he hadn’t been a pitcher anyone could count on in the fantasy game since 2006, led to Zito being on the majority of waiver-wire’s at the start of the 2012 season. However, he blazed it up out of the gates with a 1.67 ERA and 0.93 WHIP over his first four starts on his way to his most successful season as a Giants’ hurler. I already noted that he won 15 games, more than noted names like Clayton Kershaw, Adam Wainwright, Mat Latos and Jordan Zimmerman. Heck, he won as many games as Stephen Strasburg. Does that mean that Zito is back to being someone to think about on draft day? Not really (you didn’t really think I was going to say something else, did you?).

For the fourth straight season Zito posted an ERA over 4.00. It shouldn’t be a shock given that his poor work with the Giants has ballooned his ERA to 3.93 for his career, so that 4.15 mark from last season is right in line with what expectations should be. There’s no reason to expect improvement here. This is just the type of pitcher that Zito is at this point of his career. It should also be noted that his xFIP of 4.92 was a 4-year high, and as we continue our look at Zito it will become obvious why that is.

The major league average for WHIP in 2012 was 1.31. Barry Zito had a 1.39 mark in 2012. Moreover, the last time he posted a mark as low as 1.31 was 2005. That’s an awful long time ago to not even be average. There is no reason to think his performance will improve in 2013 in this category either.

Zito struck out 5.57 batters per nine innings in 2012, a full batter below his career 6.64 mark. The 6.64 mark is bad, about a batter below the league average (7.56 in 2012), and that 5.57 mark? You know that is horrible. Does Zito augment that low strikeout total with a strong walk rate? Hardly. His 3.42 per nine mark in 2012 was a 10 year best, and it was worse than the league average of 3.05 in 2012. The resulting 1.63 K/BB ratio of Zito was only slightly off the 1.79 mark he is saddled with for his career, and both marks are pathetically low. When you combine a terrible K mark, a bad BB mark and an average 1.02 GB/FB ratio, the results are usually an average effort. And that’s what we got from Zito – we got an average pitcher who was fortunate in the win-loss column (Zito didn’t lose any of his last 14 starts, including the playoffs with his last “L” coming on August 2nd). There is no way he’ll be able to keep up that winning streak in 2013.

Give Barry Zito full kudos for coming through down the stretch an into the playoffs for the Giants. His outing against the Cardinals is cited by many around the teams as the turnaround that propelled the Giants to their second World Championship in three seasons. On the other side of that glorious finish is the fact that Barry Zito is about as boring a pitcher as there is in the fantasy game. Don’t let the name or the finish fool you into thinking anything else. If you’re in a 12 team mixed league in 2013 don’t even bother thinking about Zito on draft day, and if you are in an NL-only league he’s still nothing more than a late round roster filler because he eats up innings and has a chance at wins.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Paul Maholm

Paul Maholm‘s name likely elicits, let’s see, a yawn? Before you lock that thought into your head as to what your reaction should be when the Braves’ lefties name as mentioned remember this:

Maholm had a better ERA than Homer Bailey, Chris Capuano, Mark Buehrle, Wandy Rodriguez, Jeff Samardzija, Josh Johnson, Adam Wainwright and Ian Kennedy in 2012.

Maholm had a better WHIP than Ryan Vogelsong, A.J. Burnett, Adam Wainwright, Josh Johnson, Ian Kennedy, Yovani Gallardo, Lance Lynn, Tommy Hanson and Tim Lincecum in 2012.

Maholm had more wins than Jordan Zimmerman, Chris Capuano, Roy Halladay, Edinson Volquez, Tim Lincecum, Edwin Jackson, Chad Billingsley and Jeff Samardzija.

Do I have your attention yet?

Paul Maholm isn’t exciting, I will give you that. Even with all of the above data the fact of the matter is that Maholm won 13 games, had a 3.67 ERA an a 1.22 WHIP. Those are certainly solid numbers no doubt, but it’s not like they will lead to a fantasy championship. However, it should be noted that numbers like those, from a reserve round selection or a waiver-wire pick up, are special numbers. Are you better off spending $23 on Johnny Cueto or $3 on Paul Maholm on draft day? Obviously Cueto is a better pitcher and the one you need more to win a championship, but hopefully you see the point – Maholm is the better value add based on his draft day cost. If you can augment an expensive Cueto with a cheap as all get out Maholm, then you’ve got something. In terms of return on investment, Maholm was one of the best bargains in baseball in 2012. Can he be so again in 2013?

On the bump Maholm has been very consistent the past two seasons. In 2012 he had a 3.67 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 189 innings. In 2011 he had a 3.66 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 162.1 innings. However, like many of the other hurlers I’ve been reviewing, it’s best to realize what Maholm is – he’s a rotation filler who won’t hurt you. Why do I say that? For some reason he can’t seem to consistently win games. Maholm owns a 66-84 career record, and even the past two years when he has pitched so well he’s gone 19-25. Wins-loses are of course a bad way to judge pitchers performances, I’m the first to admit that, but in the fantasy game they are one of the four categories that matter to starting hurlers. I should also point out that in four of the past five seasons, despite at least 26 starts each year (more than 30 in four of them), that Paul failed to reach double-digits in wins. For some reason he’s just not able to consistently post wins.

The next issue with Maholm is that he lacks a strikeout pitch. For his career Maholm owns a poor 5.71 K/9 mark, and that fact alone removes him from receiving my stamp of approval. Still, it is somewhat heartening to see that he’s coming off a career best mark of 6.67, though it should be noted that the mark is 0.61 better than ever before (back in 2008). Maholm isn’t going to turn into a league average K arm, just the way it is. Maholm does keep the walks in check, at least he has that going for him, with a BB/9 mark of 2.80 or lower in five of the past six years.

One thing that Maholm does well, very well, is induce grounders. It’s why he can be so effective without dominating hitters. Maholm’s GB-rate has been at least 49.9 percent every season of his career, and his worst GB/FB ratio for a season is a still impressive 1.69. Consequently he’s not exactly a homer magnet as his HR/9 mark has been under one each of the past five years.

Maholm will never be elite. He’ll never be someone to build a staff around. He’s also a pitcher who could see his performance go down since he lacks elite skills, but not likely up. That’s why he’s not someone to reach for on draft day, ever. Still, if you’ve got five or six solid arms in the rotation in a mixed league, and it’s the 25th round, you could do worse than calling out Maholm’s name on draft day.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: Augus16, 2012

Each week on Thursday’s I’ll be answering fantasy baseball questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Drop Carlos Santana for Salvador Perez, Ryan Doumit, Willin Rosario, or Jonathan Lucroy?
– @Krisr0ck27

First off, everyone needs to make sure they do a two catcher league next season. This is especially so in the the myriad of 10 team leagues that I receive questions about every day. If you can literally go to the waiver-wire an add any of those last four names, you should be ashamed at the lack of depth in your league. Lucroy is hitting .324 on the year. Rosario is tied with Buster Posey for the NL lead in homers (19) for catcher. Doumit has been a top-10 catcher this year (.294-14-59). Perez has hit .298 with eight bombs in a mere 39 games.

When the season started I would have said to go with Santana. Over the past four weeks only one catcher on this list has outperformed him (Doumit who has hit .311-7-17) as Santana has hit .270 with six homers and 19 RBIs. Santana has also hit seven bombs with 23 RBIs, a .410 OBP, a .542 SLG and .953 OPS since the All-Star break. You can move to Doumit if you need a bit of an average boost, but there is absolutely nothing wrong with holding on to, and riding, Santana.

First in all offensive categories, close to last in pitching categories. Is it worth giving Carlos Gonzalez for Matt Cain for the home stretch?
– @stealyurbase

It’s certainly the time of year in rotisserie that you have to play the categories. That means making deals that sometimes may not make total sense off the top. Would I ever draft Matt Cain ahead of Carlos Gonzalez? Are you on dope? Would never happen. But we’re 4.5 months into a six month season, so if your team needs pitching help this is certainly something to consider.

Cain continues to marvel with his consistency. Last year he had a 2.88 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. This year he has a 2.99 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. Moreover, since the start of the 2009 season, a span of 122 starts, Cain has a 2.98 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. All he does is take the ball every five games and give the Giants a chance to win. Period. My only hesitation here is that Cain has been a bit below his normal standards over his last seven starts as he’s been saddled with a 4.30 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, not awful numbers, but he’s not exactly trending in the right direction.

The deal isn’t a world beater by any means but it’s also solid given your needs.

I’ve been offered Hunter Pence for my Alex Gordon in a 12 team, H2H league. Seems like a good buy low but a lil worried.
– @NotoriousBox

I understand the concern, Pence is hitting a mere .177 with the Giants, but let’s compare these two guys efforts to one another.

Pence has doubled Gordon in homers, 18 to nine.
Pence has 24 more RBIs – 70 to 46.
Pence has scored one fewer run (66 to 67) and stolen two fewer bases (five to seven).

The only category in the fantasy game that really favors Gordon is batting average (.293 to .259). What about that average? Pence has a career .288 mark. Gordon’s career mark is .267. Pence also has hit at least .282 each of the past four years. Yes Pence is hitting .183 over his last 30 games and Gordon is hitting .341, and that’s a mind boggling difference. Still, I assume we can agree that neither player is likely to continue their pace since the All-Star break, right?

I’d take a shot on Pence. He’s got too much history on his side not to think he could still make a run to .280 this season, and he clearly has displayed a significant power advantage over Gordon this season.

Give up Curtis Granderson for Andre Ethier and Adam Wainwright? Could use a starting pitcher.
– @LKrukowski

Granderson has 30 bombs, 68 RBIs and 79 runs scored putting on pace for another excellent season. Of course there are some among you who are disappointed with that effort as he hit 41 homers with 119 RBIs and 136 runs scored last season. He was never going to repeat those numbers. He’s also continued his bizarre trend of alternating impressive an average steals totals from season to season (26, 12, 20, 12, 25 and eight this year). His batting average has also dipped to .235 an it’s looking like this will be his third sub .250 effort in four seasons.

Ethier will certainly give you a nice batting average boost. A career .291 hitter, he’s batting .288 this season after back-to-back efforts of .292. He’s nowhere near the run producer that Granderson is though as he’s hit only 22 homers over his last 241 games. Furthermore, after a torrid start to the year that included 44 RBIs in 50 games he’s driven in a mere 12 runners over his last 31 contests. On the hill  is Wainwright, and he is surging. Over his last seven starts he has a 2.40 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, nearly a K per inning (44 in 48.2 frames) and he’s walked only eight batters. It took a while for him to find his footing, but over the past two months he has looked as good as he ever has.

If you need starting pitching help I think this is a solid deal, especially since Ethier should help to smooth out the ding that Granderson put into your batting average. Let’s just hope that the Cardinals don’t shut down Wainwright early to protect his arm. After all, he didn’t throw a big league pitch last year.

In tight battle for 1st on a 15 team league. Worried about Dan Haren rest of year. Time to cut bait or hang tight?
– @99hokie

Haren clearly isn’t 100 percent because of that back. As a result of the physical woes his performance has been up and down. A prime example. After allowing a total of four runs in three starts he permitted five earned over 3.1 innings in his last outing. That still gives him a 3.80 ERA over his last four starts, nearly a run below his 4.68 mark for the season. If we pull back a bit further he still has a solid 3.00 K/BB ratio on the year. His GB/FB ratio of 1.00 is right on par with his mark the last two years. He is surrendering more homers than every before (1.44 per nine versus 1.04 for his career) and that number could normalize a bit. He’s also dealing with a .283 batting average against, and only once since 2005 has that number been over .260 so it’s possible that he could be a wee bit stingier with the base knocks the rest of the way.

Admittedly there is no way to know exactly where Haren’s body is at, but I’d still profess faith in his ability to get batters out. You can’t expect the 3.17 ERA, 1.02 WHIP guy from last season, but he should still be an above average option on the bump, especially in a 15 team league (the folks over at Fleaflicker seem to agree).

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 7-10 PM EDT, Monday through Friday.

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

Ever wanted the chance to play in a High Stakes Daily Fantasy Baseball Contest vs one of the best Experts in the industry?

Well, here is your chance to play against me, Ray Flowers, Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Channel Radio Host, owner of BaseballGuys.com, and 2011 FSWA Award Winner.

Jump into a private $5 “50/50” 20 man contest for a chance to play vs. Ray Flowers from Baseball Guys in a FREE 1 on 1 Heads Up Daily Fantasy Baseball contest for $50!!!

In a special contest with Daily Joust – Ray Flowers is putting it all on the line in a Heads Up Challenge.  This contest is two-fold.

Enter the $5 20 man 50/50 Friday night  ENTER HERE.
Finish in the top 10 of the contest and win $9

Finish in 1st place and move on to play Ray the following Friday for $50 in COLD HARD CASH!!  Plus the bragging rights of beating Ray!!!

So pass on that $5 “Footlong” Friday night and jump into this contest on DailyJoust, you can buy plenty of sandwiches later with your winnings!

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Michael Cuddyer vs. Cliff Lee: The two have faced each other 33 times with Cuddyer hitting .303 with three homers and eight RBIs. Marco Scutaro has also hit .321 in 28 at-bats against Lee.

Johnny Damon vs. Ricky Romero: If there was ever a lock to get a hit, or two, it’s Damon in this matchup (over at Fleaflicker Damon is barely owned). The duo has faced off 29 times and here’s the damage inflicted by Damon – a .522 avearge, four homers, eight RBIs a .633 OBP an a 1.807 OPS. Wowzah’s.

Jhonny Peralta vs. Jason Hammel: In 12 at-bats Peralta is hitting .417 with a homer and seven RBIs. Peralta also hit the break with four hits in his last two games while Hammel has a 6.20 ERA and 1.82 WHIP in six career games against the Tigers.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

Tim Hudson vs. Mets: The Mets have 149 at-bats against Hudson, those currently on the roster that is, and they have gone deep just two times while hitting .235 with a .637 OPS. Seems like Hudson has a pretty good shot at holding the Metropolitans down.

Clayton Kershaw vs. Padres: Any time you see Kershaw on the hill you should be pumped. When that matchup has him taking on the Padres, you should be super pumped. When you notice that current Padres are hitting .213 with a .542 OPS, and not a single homer in 141 at-bats, it’s time to start doing cartwheels (though be careful not to injure yourself cause I know I would if I attempted that move).

Adam Wainwright vs. Reds: In his career current Reds batter are hitting .187 with a .555 OPS over 107 at-bats against Waino. Take out that one rough outing against the Pirates and Wainwright has allowed a total of four earned runs in his last three starts with at least seven Ks each outing.

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Billy Butler vs. Jake Peavy: Maybe those Royals fans that felt slighted All-Star weekend will have something to cheer for in this matchup as Butler has hit .389 with a 1.365 OPS against Peavy in 18 career at-bats.

Torii Hunter vs. Freddy Garcia: The two have faced each other in 48 official at-bats with Hunter emerging with 19 hits leading to a .396 batting average. Hunter has also gone deep four times while knocking in eight runs.

Casey Kotchman vs. Aaron Laffey: OK, I take my Damon prediction. This might be the most bonkers matchup ever. E-V-E-R. In 10 at-bats Kotchman has nine hits against Laffey. That is all.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Gio Gonzalez vs. Marlins: Current Marlins batters have 36 at-bats against Gio. They have struck out 12 times and produced… one hit (Emilio Bonifacio). Coming off a first half that saw him post a 2.92 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, not to mention 118 Ks in 101.2 innings, Gio is a must start in this matchup.

Kyle Lohse vs. Reds: In the last matchup between these two foes Lohse worked seven scoreless innings. In each of his last four starts he has worked at least seven innings while allowing a total of seven runs. That’s sounding like a pretty good matchup to me.

Max Scherzer vs. Orioles: On the year Scherzer has a 4.72 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. Terrible numbers for a guy with his arm. I try to focus more on the 121 Ks in 97.1 innings and the nearly four to one K/BB marks. I also like the fact that he’s allowed a total of six runs over his last four starts as he’s finally finding his rhythm on the hill.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

The weekend is quickly approaching, so get ready to get your swerve on. For those of you looking to remain at least a little bit serious with your hobby (fantasy baseball not drinking) I’ll give some advice on how you might choose to fill out your lineup for Friday or Saturday while also suggesting you head over to DailyJoust.com to check out their unique brand of daily fantasy baseball games (including a way to win two tickets to the Major League All-Star Game).

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Jay Bruce vs. Nick Blackburn: Bruce has been ice cold for a while hitting .227 over his last 45 games. Still, he has 12 walks in 18 games in June and his SLG for the month is .500. Bruce has gone deep 12 times in 174 at-bats against righties this year and he gets to face Nick Blackburn who has been torched by lefty batters this year to the tune of a .393 BAA and .924 OPS against this season.

Andre Ethier vs. Dan Haren: The Angels’ righty has struggled a bit with health and performance which only adds to the aura for Ethier in this matchup. In 44 career at-bats Ethier has five doubles, two homers, seven RBI and a .386 batting average against Haren. James Loney also hammers Haren (.359 in 39 at-bats).

David Wright vs. Andy Pettitte: Wright is third in baseball with a .358 batting average. He’s hitting .343 in June. He’s hitting .343 against lefties this season. Facing Pettitte 24 previous times Wright has managed to produce two homers an a .458 batting average. Lock and load.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

A.J. Burnett vs. Tigers: The last eight times that Burnett has taken the hill this year he has allowed two or fewer runs seven times (he allowed three runs in the other outing). He’s also picked up a win in each of his last six outings. He does face a Tigers club that is potent, but I’m going to focus on his recent success this season and the 5-2 career record he has against the Tigers over the 5.92 ERA and 1.52 WHIP he has against the Motown club over nine career starts.

Jason Hammel vs. Nationals: Hammel has killed it at home this year with a 2.53 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over five starts spanning 32 innings. He’s also had success in his career against the Nats going 4-0 with a 3.99 ERA and 1.23 WHIP over six starts.

Clayton Richard vs. Mariners: (1) He’s facing the Mariners. (2) Richard is Matt Cain when pitching at home. Think I’m nuts? Here are the numbers that prove it.

Matt Cain 2012: 12Wins, 2.88 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 179 K in 222.2 IP

Clayton Richard career at Petco: 13Wins , 2.72 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 180 K in 228.1 IP

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Russell Martin vs. Chris Young: Martin has eight hits in 25 at-bats against Young leading to a .320 batting average. Martin has also had a solid June with four homers and nine RBIs for the Yankees.

Alexei Ramirez vs. Randy Wolf: The lefty from Milwaukee has bombed on the road this year with a 6.75 ERA and 1.84 WHIP over six starts. Ramirez has finally started to pick things up of late as well as he’s hitting .359 the past two weeks, and for his career he has hit .300 in 617 at-bats against lefties.

Ben Zobrist vs. Kyle Kendrick: Over the past two weeks Zobrist is hitting a robust .400 (he’s also scored 10 runs in 10 games). Kendrick, on the other hand, has struggled like he’s looking to be demoted as he’s allowed at least five runs in each of this last three starts as his ERA has gone from 4.02 to .529.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Johnny Cueto vs. Twins: The Twins can’t hit, and that situation isn’t helped by the fact that Joe Mauer can’t get his wheel healthy enough to play. Cueto has never faced the Twins but he’s sporting a 2.68 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in six home starts this season, and over his last four outings overall he’s permitted only seven runs while not allowing a single long ball.

Ian Kennedy vs.  Cubs: Though he owns a 5.91 ERA over three starts against the Cubs, how about we focus on the positive –  he’s lasted 21.1 innings in those three starts during which time he has struck out 18 and walked only two leading to a 1.08 WHIP. Kennedy has also allowed two or fewer runs in three of his last four starts this year. The key will be keeping the ball in the yard as he’s allowed nine homers over his last eight outings.

Adam Wainwright vs. Royals: Wainwright is back on his game, well pretty much. Though he allowed seven runs on June 1st the other six times he has taken the hill since May 20th have resulted in eight earned runs allowed. In the process Adam W. has lowered his ERA from 5.77 to 4.46. He’s also had success in his career against the Royals with a 3.31 ERA and 1.01 WHIP over 32.2 innings.

CONTESTS

Over at DailyJoust folks, lots of hot things popping (didn’t I sound super street there?).

Friday June 22 7pm EST – 2012 MLB All Star Joust.

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$2,000 MLB All Star Joust Freeroll
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$1,000 King James “BEAT MOBYDICKLER” MLB Tournament
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Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. First, the weekend is nearly upon us (thank goodness). Second, it’s time to get your drink on. Third, it’s time to get ready for your weekend of fantasy baseball  with DailyJoust.com.

For those of you unaware of just what DailyJoust is and what the offer, click on the link to BBGuys Partners with DailyJoust. The bottom line is DJ allows you the chance to play daily fantasy baseball, choose a team today an another one tomorrow if you want, all the while giving you the chance to make some real money. Today, I’ll give some advice on how you might choose to fill out your lineup for Friday or Saturday.

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Robinson Cano/Nick Swisher/Mark Teixeira: All three of these Yankees face King Felix, and in most cases that is a recipe for a benching. However, the three Yankees bats have had ample success against the Mariners’ ace.

Cano: .355/.429/581 with two HRs, 4 RBI in 31 at-bats
Swisher: .238/.333/.548 with 4 HRs, 5 RBI in 42 at-bats
Tex: .321/.393/.679 with five HRs, 9 RBIs in 53 at-bats

Sometimes things don’t make a lot of sense.

Casey Kotchman: Clay Buchholz has allowed only 10 hits to all the players currently on the Indians, it just so happens that six of them have been to Kotchman in 11 at-bats, and that’s good for a .545 average. Kotchman is also eight for 23 of late good for a .348 average the past eight days.

Adrian Beltre: The Rangers’ slugger is back to playing third base after dealing with a lower body injury for a while now, and he’s likely looking forward to facing C.J. Wilson given that he has seven hits in 19 at-bats against the lefty (.368/.429/.684).

Jeff Baker/Geo Soto: The two Cubs batters face the always moderately effective Randy Wolf (if you’re looking for a cheap play, Baker is your guy. Look at how many teams over at Fleaflicker have him rostered). The duo has combined to hit four homers with 13 RBI in 54 at-bats against Wolf with Soto hitting three of the bombs with a .333 average while Baker has hit .417 in the matchup.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

Chris Capuano is undefeated through six starts with a 2.21 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 36 Ks in 36.2 innings. He faces a Rockies club that has hit just .235 against him, and Capuano is 5-1 in his career at Dodger Stadium where the game will take place.

Gio Gonzalez faces a Reds club that he has held to a .109 batting average over 14 innings. The Reds hitters have only managed to bat .109 against Gio who has allowed just three runs in his last five outings this season.

I know I wrote earlier about three hitters from the Yankees that have had a lot of success against Felix Hernandez, but that doesn’t mean King Felix is a bad play Saturday. He is 3-0 with a 0.38 ERA in his outings at the new Yankees Stadium.

Johan Santana has been fantastic this year with a 2.61 ERA and 1.19 WHIP with 34 strikeouts through 31 innings. He faces the Marlins Saturday, a team that he has gone 6-1 against with a 1.46 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 81 punchouts in 68 innings.

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Michael Bourn/Jack Wilson: In 25 at-bats against Adam Wainwright Bourn has hit .320 whereas Wilson has hit .364 in 22 at-bats against the righty from St. Louis.

Omar Infante: The guy just keeps on hitting everyone, including going deep with a greater frequency than we’ve ever seen from the slap hitter. Infante has had immense success against the Mets’ R.A. Dickey with 12 hits in 25 at-bats, good for a  .480 batting average.

Andrew McCutchen: Hitting .330 through 28 games, McC has only two bombs on the year, though they have come in the past five days. McCutchen faces J.A. Happ Saturday, a hurler who he has beat around for three homers and five RBI in just 22 at-bats (he has also hit .364 against Happ).

David Wright: This guy has flat out murdered the Marlins’ Ricky Nolasco. Wright, in 57 at-bats, has hit .386 with a 1.118 OPS. He’s also gone deep four times with 13 RBI against the perpetually underachieving Nolasco who has actually performed pretty well this year.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

R.A. Dickey faces a Marlins club that continue to struggle to score despite the talent they possess. Dickey shut down the Marlins earlier this season with a one run, seven inning effort that led to a victory. Dickey was bombed in one start this season but in five of his six outings this season he has produced a “quality start.”

Doug Fister faces the Athletics, arguably the worst offense in baseball. Fister also tossed seven shutout innings in his first start back from the DL to up his season long mark to 10.2 shutout innings. Fister has enjoyed plenty of success in his career against the Athletics with a 5-3 record in 10 outings. Fister has also posted a 2.55 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over those 60 innings.

Shaun Marcum is 3-0 with a  2.70 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in three games against the Cubs. Rather amazingly he also has 17 Ks and just one walk in 20 innings against the Cubbies.

Adam Wainwright is 6-0 with a  2.25 ERA, 1.14 WHIP against Braves in 44 innings. Wainwright has also gone 2-0 with only five runs allowed in his last three starts this year as he rounds into form as he continues to work his way back from Tommy John surgery.

CONTESTS

BaseballGuys.com has partnered with DailyJoust.com to give our users an opportunity to compete in Daily Fantasy games this baseball season and they have a $250 MLB Baseball Freeroll Tournament Friday May 5th starting at 7pm EST.

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By Ray Flowers

Answering Your Questions

People ask me questions every day, and I do my best to give a thoughtful, and hopefully well reasoned, answer to each of them. In what follows I’m going to answer some of the questions that were posted in the COMMENTS section of the Around the Horn, July 21st article.

What the outlook on Adam Wainwright for next year? Is he worthy on a keeper position in a 12 league (10 keepers)? Or would Jair Jurrjens or is Max Scherzer be a safer bet?
– Josh

It sounds like Wainwright is ahead of schedule in his return from Tommy John surgery. All reports point to him being full healthy and ready to go by Opening Day 2012 (in fact, there are rumors floating that he might even be able to help the Cardinals this year if they make the playoffs). Wainwright had 39 wins in 2009-10, the second best total in baseball (one behind CC Sabathia). He also worked 463.1 innings, 6th in the game. You can’t expect him to go out there and toss 230 innings in his first year back, but with 2-straight years with an ERA under 2.65, and back-to-back 200 K seasons, it would be pretty tough not to protect him given that you keep 10 guys. Scherzer is healthier, of course, but his upside at the moment may not be the levels that Wainwright reached the last two years. Jurrjens has been spectacular, but as I continue to say, he just doesn’t have the skills to keep this up long term. I’d keep Wainwright.

Ray… what do u think of this trade Travis Hafner, Desmond Jennings, Rickie Weeks and Michael Young for Prince Fielder, Roy Halladay and Nick Markakis. 5 x 5 12 team roto. I don’t know if I’m just jealous the person didn’t trade with me or the trade was lopsided.
– Brian

I say it all the time, I don’t like deals that are this big – there are just too many parts to get a great read on the situation.

Hafner is locked into the UT spot, and for all his good with the stick, he just can’t stay healthy. Jennings has elite speed, and has shown more pop than expected in Triple-A this year, but he continues to be dogged by injuries. When will he be up? We all thought he would have been a month and a half ago. Weeks is an elite second baseman. Young is a solid hitter, .300 is always a reasonable expectation, and he qualifies at multiple spots.

Prince Fielder is a total beast, ditto Roy Halladay, and Nick Markakis it hitting .319 over his last 69 games. If this is a re-draft league I totally agree with you. This deal is completely unfair, obnoxiously so actually.

Evan Longoria is nursing an injury in his leg. Would you be worried he gets shut down early this year? Are you scared this injury could hurt him significantly in future years. Would you be scared if you owned him in a keeper league? Do you think Eric Hosmer has Ryan Braun/Joey Votto/Justin Morneau upside in a few years?
– Thomas

I don’t worry about Longoria being shut down unless he’s going to do long-term danger to himself. Of course, I’m not a doctor, and I didn’t stay at a Holiday Inn last night, so I really don’t know. I’m certainly not concerned about injuries being a long-term issue.

As for Hosmer, he could hit .295 with 22 homers and 77 RBI, the numbers of Morneau over his last 509 at-bats. However, I’m not going to sit here and say he’s gonna hit .320 with 35 homers like Braun and Votto as that would be unfair to Hosmer if he settles in as a .300-25 guy. Could Hosmer get to that upper level? Sure, but remember, you can count on one hand, two at the most, the guys that could go .320-35 year after year. I’s a very small group.

I need ERA, WHIP, K’s – my staff is Michael Pineda, Jeremy Hellickson, Yovani Gallardo, Johnny Cueto and Max Scherzer. I am scared of both Pineda and Hellickson inning limits so thinking of offering Hellickson, Howie Kendrick, Eric Hosmer for Cole Hamels, Alexi Casilla, Travis Snider…good move?
– Scott

Pineda could have his innings limited. In fact he likely will according to the Mariners. Hellickson, not so worried about him and the innings, but he could have his workload curtailed.

Kendrick is a .300 hitter with some pop, speed, and qualification at positions all over the field. Hosmer is a solid bat, but in a non-keeper league he isn’t close to being a top flight first baseman option. Hamels is elite. No reason to expect a drop-off moving forward. Casilla is hitting only .247 with a .290 OBP and two steals the last month. Snider is killing it, .326 with two homers and 14 RBI the past two weeks.

You’re giving up a ton of talent to get an ace. However, this move would fit your need, though I’d be reluctant to do it.

I was just wondering your opinion on two players. I recently got Melky Cabrera and Mark Trumbo on my team thru trade and free agency, respectively. What do you think about these players? Can they keep up their numbers the rest of the way? I think Melky is real interesting because before I got him I didn’t realize how young he was as it seemed like he’s been playing forever, all those years with the Yankees. Now he’s putting up great 5 cat numbers. Is he just coming into his own? And Trumbo, will he hit a wall soon?
– Jackson

Melky is on pace to produce a 5×5 line of .294-19-89-100-23. Every one of those numbers would be a career best. He’s doing tall that despite a career worst walk rate an a career high strikeout rate. He’s also bettered his career OBP by a mere .002 points (it’s a league average .331). His GB/FB ratio is 1.55, an exact match for his career level. Oh, his HR/F ratio is 11.1 percent, a massive increase on his career rate (6.8). Cabrera isn’t as good as he has looked. He’s basically doing what he always does, with never before seen power that I doubt will continue. He’s also a trade option, and I could see him getting dealt to a team where he plays four out of five days which would diminish his value. He’s not a 20 homer bat, he’s not a 20 steal runner, and he’s not a .300 hitter despite what we’ve seen to this point.

Trumbo is having a nice season. With 18 homers and 44 RBI in 320 at-bats, he’s on pace to end the year with 29 homers and 72 RBI which would be wonderful numbers for a rookie. There’s no reason to expect him to hit a wall simply because the calendar is ready to move to August in a week and a half. He’s done a decent job with a strikeout per 4.32 at-bats, though he isn’t drawing many walks (5.2 BB-rate). He’s not likely to see his batting average increase much (.259) given that, but he should continue to pound the long ball.

By Ray Flowers