Player Profile: Mike Stanton

Ask anyone and they will tell you that Mike Stanton is a future star in this game. The owner of prodigious power, no park in the land can contain the ferocity with which Stanton sends balls into orbit. Because of his almost unparallelled ability to drive the ball into the cheap seats, Stanton’s value in the fantasy game continues to grow. Take a look over at MockDraftCentral and you’ll find that Stanton’s Average Draft Position is inside the top-25 (24.4 actually). Two questions come to my mind when I see that. (1) Can Stanton live up to those expectations? (2) How can Stanton possibly live up to those expectations? I know those are in effect the same question, I’m just trying to make a point — I think it’s going to be pretty darn difficult for Stanton to be as productive in 2012 as people expect him to be based on where he is being drafted. Before I get to that line of thought, he’s a quick run down of Stanton’s skill set.

Stanton has only 875 big league at-bats in his young career so that makes prognostication somewhat more difficult than normal. The guy has one season of 375 at-bats, so the old sample size question can be rightly brought up here as an uncertainty.

Stanton has hit .259 and .262 in his two big league seasons. In those two years he has hit .261, just every so slightly above the big league average of .256. Can he produce a better batting average than that moving forward? On a positive note he did boost his walk rate by three percent while cutting his strikeout rate by 3.5 percent in his second season. However, his BB/K mark was slightly below the league average at 0.42, and he still struck out in more than a quarter of his at-bats (27.6 percent to be precise). That doesn’t sound like a guy who is primed for a batting average increase. Stanton also owns a mere 16.4 percent line drive rate in his career (16.5 and 16.3 percent the last two years). While he should be able to maintain his average given the homers he will hit that don’t count in this measure but lead to hits, it is somewhat concerning that Stanton is pretty far removed from the 19-20 percent big league average.

Stanton is all about the power which he has flashed since day one. However, and yes there actually is a ‘however’ when talking about his power, I have one small concern with Stanton. Much like Ryan Howard, another prodigious power bat, Stanton doesn’t hit as many fly balls as you think. In fact, Stanton’s career fly ball rate of 39.3 percent is only about two percent above the league average. He really doesn’t hit that many balls into the air. As a result, the only way he is going to blast 40+ homers is going to be if he converts a large percentage of those fly balls into home runs. Stanton has done that the last two years with an impressive 24.0 percent HR/F rate, and last year his 24.8 percent HR/F rate was the highest mark in baseball (to compare, the average big league posts a mark of about 10 percent, and even a huge power bat like Albert Pujols had only an 18.3 percent mark last season). Maybe Stanton can lead the league in this category year after year, it’s certainly possible. All I’m saying is that he’s going to have to be near the top of the leader board in HR/F ratio if he wants to hit 40 homers if he doesn’t hit more balls into the air.

Finally, an athletic 6’5”, Stanton has stolen five bases in each of his big league seasons but he’s just not going to run very much – it’s not his game.

So what do we have in Stanton?

(1) We had an hitter who strikes out far too much.

(2) We have a hitter who profiles as a league average contributor in batting average.

(3) We have a hitter with elite power, though one who struggles to hit a lot of fly balls.

(4) We have a player who is unlikely to steal many bases.

Does that sound like a top-25 fantasy player to you?

Let me ask you this – would you be happy if Stanton hit .264 with 40 homers, 106 RBI and 101 runs scored in 2012? You had better say yes because all four of those numbers would be career bests for Stanton. You know who put up those exact numbers in 2007? Try Adam Dunn. Did anyone, EVER, look at Dunn and think he was a top-25 fantasy performer? Anyone? Of course you didn’t. What if Stanton hit .248 with 39 homers, 111 RBI and 90 runs scored in 2012? That would also be considered a career best effort for Stanton so you would have to be please wouldn’t you? Mark Teixeira did that last season and he’s being drafted after Stanton (Tex has a 27.8 ADP). Would you really rather have Stanton over a guy like Teixeira who has hit 30 homers with 100 RBI each of the past eight years given that Tex is also in a great offensive ball yard in a potent offense with the Yankees?

If Stanton improves across the board and has a rather impressive third season, something like either the Dunn or Teixeira campaign’s I mentioned above, he’s still not likely to live up to his top-25 billing. He offers little on the bases to augment his value, and that league average batting mark isn’t going to do him any favors either. I’m not saying to avoid Stanton or that he will fail. I’m merely pointing out that the hope of a huge power season might be causing people to draft Stanton at a point where he can’t possibly live up to expectations.

Don’t forget to pick up a copy of the 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide.

By Ray Flowers

The Fantasy Beat: Pitching Early?

Can you win in fantasy baseball if you go pitcher heavy early? On The Fantasy Beat – hosted by Justin Fensterman and Trevor Ray – the question is explored.

Listen to the Audio.

ADP Talk: Group Think

Thinking for yourself is always dangerous. People are nervous about being wrong. It’s pretty much human nature to want to follow versus lead, and nowhere is that more evident than in yearly Average Draft Position (ADP) numbers. Player X is hot so he moves up the ADP rankings. People then, thinking they are missing out on something, continue to support Player X. Relatively quickly that elevated ranking becomes a self perpetuating ranking that people eventually accept as fact. Should things be that way? Sometimes yes, but often times no. Some thoughts on the value of ADP follow.

ADP numbers are different depending on your source so make sure you use a reputable one. However, even if you use MockDraftCentral, the best source for the material in my opinion, there are a few substantial limitations.

First, who is doing these mock drafts that are leading to the ADP numbers? Are those doing the mocks experienced fantasy players or are they people that have just taken up the game? You might say ‘why does it matter?’ There’s a major reason why it does matter. An experienced fantasy player understands how a draft works, the ebb and flow of it, and how to target players etc. An inexperienced player will likely do what seems like a smart thing – they will follow a sites ADP list with the thinking being that if they aren’t sure about how to do something why not follow the recommendations provided by an ADP list? Therefore, inexperienced people are likely to perpetuate the current ADP rankings because they are more likely to closely follow the ADP lists, especially if their knowledge base isn’t substantial.

Second, is the draft filled entirely with actual people, or, is part of the draft being run by automatized managers? Obviously if there are eight live managers and four auto pick teams in your draft the ADP numbers will be skewed because the computer will pick exactly according to the ADP list that the site puts out further perpetuating the ADP rankings.

Third, even if there are real people doing the draft, are they going to draft an entire 30 man roster, or, as is more likely the case, will they draft the first 15 or 20 rounds before being pulled away from the draft to do something else? When this happens the selection of players in the later rounds will revert to auto-pick further perpetuating ADP numbers.

Fourth, what if someone is trying a “strategy” just to see how it will work out? I personally did exactly that a week or so ago when I drafted five outfielders in my first five picks and didn’t take my first pitcher until round 14. I wanted to see how my team would do if I waited to target pitching. I like how the team turn out but I would never do something so drastic if it was for an actual league. Clearly my “strategy draft” might skew the ADP rankings. It might not really matter if there are hundreds of drafts feeding into ADP, but I can’t be the only person who is experimenting during mock drafts lending yet another caution to the thought that you can use ADP as if it was gospel.

Finally, what about this thought. The folks over at Baseball HQ put out a study that showed the following: over the past eight years only 37 percent of the players selected in the first round of a draft returned first round value that year. In essence, almost two-thirds of the players selected in the first around according to ADP failed to live up to that level of expectation. Obviously that means that there is no answer to who the best choices are as the simply fact of the matter is that at least half of all of the players that we think will be first round performers fail to live up to that billing. The point being, that just cause someone is listed at #27 on the ADP chart doesn’t preclude him from being a top-5 overall performer. In fact, you have just as good a chance of your second round pick performing like a first rounder as your first rounder has of performing like a first rounder. To sum it up, ADP numbers simply aren’t infallible.

So the next time you’re doing a draft, don’t be slavishly tied to some ADP list. Not only are their some problems with how ADP numbers are put together, but you also have to consider the fact that we simply cannot predict with a high level of certitude who will be what in the coming campaign.

* Note: Here’s Lawr Michael’s take on ADP and how you should use/view those numbers.

By Ray Flowers

The Catcher’s Position

I say it every year – the catcher’s position is a field filled with landmines. There are certainly options that are elite when it comes to offensive output, but at the same time there is always an inherent risk with anyone who wears the tools of ignorance (Victor Martinez injured his knee – a torn ACL – knocking him out for the season. Was it the result of wear and tear? We may never know.). So what are my thoughts on how you should handle the catchers position, especially if you are in a league (as you should be) that has two starting backstops?

Consider the following.

Strike One.

Last year only one catcher appeared in 150 games – Carlos Santana (155).

Last year four catchers appeared in 140 games – Martinez, Alex Avila, Miguel Montero and John Buck.

Last year six catchers appeared in 130 games – Yadier Molina, Matt Wieters, Jonathan Lucroy, Kurt Suzuki, Carlos Ruiz and Miguel Olivo.

In total we have 11 catcher eligible players who appeared in 130 games, or, to put it another way, there were only 11 catchers who appeared in more than 80 percent of their teams games. How about this – there were only 11 catchers who missed as few as a month worth of games. Think about that for a moment. If you were in a 15 team league last year you had about a 50 percent chance that your starter  behind the dish missed a month worth of game action. That alone should cause you pause when you think about reaching early for a catcher. Hidden inside this digression about games played is the point I brought up at the start – that is the fact that injuries are a huge issue for a backstop. Do you really want to spend a high level pick on a player that is, in the best case scenario, going to miss 15 percent of his teams games? What if there was a fair amount of risk that even that number would be missed (i.e. another injury – think Mike Napoli who is still dealing with an ankle injury from last season)?

Strike Two.

How about this one – how many catchers stole 10 or more bases last year? The answer is zero. Moreover, only four eligible catchers even stole five bases (Russell Martin 8, Miguel Olivo 6, Chris Iannetta 6 and Santana 5). Strike two is a total lack of speed from the player who you will have fill the catcher’s position. There simply no juice at all from backstops in the steals category.

Strike Three.

How about we talk about batting average. Amongst catcher eligible players who had 400 plate appearances do you know how many hit .290? The answer is four – V-Mart (.330) Napoli (.320), Yadier Molina (.305) and Alex Avila (.295). That’s a pretty high batting mark, so let’s drop the qualification down to .275. How many catchers hit .275? The answer is just seven (add in A.J. Pierzynski .287, Carlos Ruiz .283 and Miguel Montero .282). If we drop that number down to .270 we only add two more guys (Yorvit Torrealba .273 and Brian McCann .270). So all told we’ve got nine, not nineteen but nine, catchers who had 400 plate appearances that also hit just .270. Clearly catcher isn’t the place to look for batting average help.

Strike Four.

Is there big time power at the catchers spot? The answer is not really (five catchers hit 20 homers in 2012: Mike Napoli 30, Carlos Santana 27, Brian McCann 24, J.P. Arencebia 23 and Matt Wieters 22). The reason, chiefly, is that they just don’t play enough games. There were nine other catchers who hit between 15 and 19 homers, but that makes my point for me doesn’t it? After a mere handful of guys, pretty much any catcher you will draft is going to hit you something like 15 homers. If the difference between the #6 guy at the position in homers and the #14 guys is just four homers, less than one a month, does it really matter who your catcher is? Further, there were also four more catchers who hit 14 homers (that brings the total to 18 backstops who went deep at least 14 times). The bottom line here is that there was a lot of parody at the catcher’s position, at least in terms of the power output they provide.

I know you have to take a catcher, and I know it matters who you end up with. There is no doubt that there is a significant difference between Mike Napoli and Kurt Suzuki, but my point is that I’m concerned enough about the potential injury situation to always be reluctant to spend big on a catcher. Further, with most catchers missing so much playing time, it just doesn’t make much sense to reach for a catcher. In addition, no catcher is a five category contributor which should further diminish the value of those players at the position. I’m not suggesting you wait until your stuck drafting the #19 and #23 catchers as your starters, but at the same time I’m also much more comfortable targeting catchers in the 8-15 range than I am reaching early, or waiting late, on getting my backstop duo.

Check out the link to Fleaflicker for their rankings on the catcher’s position.

By Ray Flowers

Can You Wait on Pitching?

On Sunday night on Livin’ the Fantasy on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio, we did a mock draft. Given that I’ve done so many mock drafts, an it gets old dominating every time (I’m so modest), I thought I would change things up an implement a crazy plan to see if I could do something highly unconventional (to say the least), and still put together a squad to be feared. Before I get to how my team turned out, here are the rules.

5×5 scoring
Mixed League
12 teams
Hitters: C, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI, CI, OF, OF, OF, OF, OF, UT
Pitcher: Any nine

Drafting out of the nine hole, I decided to see what would happen if I started out taking 5-straight outfielders. Check out the powerhouse outfield I was able to assemble in the first five rounds, it’s as impressive a unit as you’ll come across – Carlos Gonzalez, Andrew McCutchen, Carl Crawford, B.J. Upton and Shane Victorino. Down Crawford for his poor performance in 2011, and Upton for his poor batting average, but that’s as dynamic a group of five outfielders you could possibly assemble. All five men are going 15/15 in 2012 if they are healthy, and it’s possible, even if not probable, that all five could go 20/20.

You’re saying to yourself – well that’s great Ray but your team is going to stink since you took this tact at the draft table. My reply is hogwash. Let’s take a look at my offensive squad.

C: Yadier Molina, Chris Iannetta
1B: Mark Reynolds
2B: Howie Kendrick
3B: Pablo Sandoval
MI/CI: Daniel Murphy, Martin Prado
OF: Carlos Gonzalez, Andrew McCutchen, Carl Crawford, B.J. Upton, Shane Victorino
UT: Alex Rios

I have a couple of average killers in Upton, Reynolds an Iannetta, but I was able to add Prado who should bounce back to hit .300 (see his Player Profile) and Daniel Murphy (see his Player Profile) to help offset those guys (not to mention .300 types like Sandoval, Kendrick and CarGo that I also rostered). I’ve also got positional flexibility with the following guys qualifying in at least two spots: Reynolds, Kendrick, Murphy and Prado. I really like this unit, and if a guy like Alex Rios bounces back like I hope/expect (see his Player Profile) then this unit will be terrific.

OK, so my offense rocked, but what about my pitching? This is where PART II of my plan came into being. Not only did I take five outfielders with my first five picks, I waited until the 14th round to take my first pitcher (I took my last offensive player, my second catcher, in round 23, but from rounds 14-22 it was pitcher-rama). So my staff must be awful waiting that long to grab arms right? You be the judge.

Brandon Morrow
Ryan Madson
Cory Luebke
Kenley Jansen
Joe Nathan
Ryan Dempster
Frank Francisco
Ricky Nolasco
Bud Norris

OK my ratios may not be great, but I three closers (Madson, Nathan and Francisco) who could give me 90 saves. I also grabbed Jansen who might be one of the five most electric pitchers in baseball. If he closes 30 saves will happen. If he serves as a setup man in Los Angeles he might lead all relievers in baseball in strikeouts. Either way, this is an impressive foursome out of the bullpen (since I waited so long on starters I thought it would make sense to try and build a strong group of relievers to challenge for the lead in saves and to also help keep my ratios in check).

As for my starters, again, their ratios may not impress. But I ask you this – how many other teams in the league have five starters who appear to be well on their way to at least 150 strikeouts? Look at these strikeout totals from last year: Morrow (203), Dempster (191), Luebke (154 in 139.2 IP), Nolasco (148) and Norris (176). Remember that I didn’t take a single hurler until the 14th round. I’ll take a staff with power arms like this almost every day of the week.

Could a team like this, heck could this team, win a championship? I certainly think it could. I also hope that this little off kilter operation will help to point out that you don’t have to, no matter what anyone says, jump into the pitcher hopper early in drafts (in this draft pitchers went way too early with seven taken in the first 28 picks). Remember, I would still, in an actual draft, have six or seven bench rounds to bolster my pitching staff, and that opportunity to build more depth would certainly provide me plenty of chances to grab some arms that could bring me solid performances in 2012. It may have not come about in a conventional manner, but I like the way this squad turned out. What about you?

 DRAFT RESULTS

By Ray Flowers

ADP Talk: Late January, Pitchers

Yesterday I broke down just what Average Draft Position is, and then I took a spin around some of the ADP numbers for hitters that stood out in my mind. Today, I’m going to bookend that piece by breaking down some of the numbers for the men who climb the hill and chuck the pill at batters.

To see my thoughts on the hitters click on: ADP Talk: Late January.

One of the industry leaders in ADP data is Mock Draft Central. In what follows I will break down some of the early ADP numbers for 5×5 mixed leagues (there are 471 qualifying drafts under consideration here that took place from 1/12 to 1/26).

I’ve written it before, but the only difference last year between Justin Verlander (8.7) and Clayton Kershaw (15.3) was three wins. I don’t see why there is such a split between the two in ADP. For that matter, I still have a hard time understanding why people would spend a first round pick on a hurler. Too much variability in performance, too much health risk, and further, starting pitchers only contribute in four of the five categories (no saves). Give me a hitter at the top of the draft every time.

The Phillies currently have three of the top-8 guys according to ADP: Roy Halladay (14.8), Cliff Lee (20.3) and Cole Hamels (31.6).

Zack Greinke at 51.1 is solid – he pitched much better last year than some of his numbers show. Still, it’s surprising to me that he is being taken after teammate Yovani Gallardo (50.9). I also find it slightly odd that James Shields, who outperformed both those Brewers’ arms last season, can he had way down at 66.8.

The top-15 is the land of lefties. Besides Kershaw, Lee and Hamels we also have CC Sabathia (30.9), David Price (39) and Jon Lester (51.1).

Stephen Strasburg will likely pitch no more than 160 or so innings this season as he works his way back from Tommy John surgery. Still, he’s going off the board inside the top-20 amongst starters with an ADP of 61.9. Matt Moore, who many view as the left-handed version of Strasburg, can be had much later down at 102.4. Strasburg’s teammate, Jordan Zimmerman, came back from Tommy John surgery last year and barely eclipsed 160-innings as the Nats were very careful with him. This year he figures to be turned loose but he’s still lasting until 120.2. Adam Wainwright, another Tommy John survivor, is  going off the board at 103. I don’t know about you, but I’m thinking 200-innings from Zimmerman is  going to do me more good than 170 innings from Wainwright.

Jeremy Hellickson is going off the board at 126.8 slightly behind this years exciting newcomer Yu Darvish (126.6).

Why would anyone roster Johnny Cueto (114.2) over Jamie Garcia (178.7)? Garcia won four more games last year and struck out 52 more batters. I know that Cueto had a 2.31 ERA vs. the 3.56 mark of Garcia, but a look at xFIP shows those that those marks should have been much closer – Cueto 3.90, Garcia 3.31. Wait, Garcia was actually better in 2011? See what I’m saying about the ADP being backwards?

Ubaldo Jimenez (154.2) and Max Scherzer (154.2) are two huge arms that can be had outside the top-150 selections in drafts. Speaking of huge arms, give me some Brandon Morrow (185) who is going off the board after soft tossers like Doug Fister (176.6) and Trevor Cahill (177.9). That’s just nuts to me.

Jordan Walden (159.5) had a nice season for the Angels with 32 saves, but did you realize he blew 10 chances? Also, his WHIP was 1.24, which is solid, but it certainly doesn’t point to an elite performance. As for Rafael Betancourt (202.6), he’s failed in the 9th before, but he was nails in the second half last year leading to the Rockies moving Huston Street to give the 9th to him outright this year. I wrote about Bentancourt back in March of last year in this Player Profile. As I wrote there, he has done something that no other pitcher – EVER – has been able to accomplish. He is the only pitcher to post a 9.50 K/9 and 4.35 K/BB rate in more than 500 career innings in the history of the game. Given me that guy.

Javy Guerra (230.1) converted 21 of 23 save chances last year. Still, nearly everyone is banking on the massive arm of Kenley Jansen (183.6) being the man for the Dodgers this year.

Francisco Rodriguez (222.2) is going to set up John Axford (91.3) in Milwaukee, an everyone knows it. K-Rod has nice skills, and has been good for a long time, but I still find it odd that in standard 5×5 leagues that he is being taken ahead of guys like Kyle Farnsworth (222.6), Frank Francisco (232.2), Jim Johnson (233.8) and Matt Capps (234) – all guys that appear likely to open the year as their teams closer. Speaking of late grabs, it’s not a certainty, but Brandon Lyon could be the closer for the Astros (health permitting). His ADP is currently 279.2.

By Ray Flowers

ADP Talk: Late January

 Average Draft Position, or ADP, is a tool that everyone in the fantasy game is using these days. For those of you who don’t know what ADP is, here you go:

ADP takes into account a whole bunch of drafts. You add them all up and come up with the average draft position of a player. As an example. Let’s say that in four drafts Matt Cain is taken 39th, 79th, 51st and 67th. You add up the four draft slots, which equal 236, divide by the number of drafts (in this case four), and come up with an ADP of 59 for Cain. Simply enough right?

One of the industry leaders in ADP data is Mock Draft Central. In what follows I will break down some of the early ADP numbers for 5×5 mixed leagues (there are 471 qualifying drafts under consideration here that took place from 1/12 to 1/26).

Today, I’ll talk hitters. Tomorrow, pitchers.

Joe Mauer (82.4 ADP) seems like quite the bargain if Buster Posey is coming in at #60 don’t you think? Both guys are coming back off injury plagued seasons, but last time I looked it was Posey who suffered the catastrophic injury, right?

Three of my favorites at the catcher’s position: Ryan Doumit (238.2), Chris Iannetta (239.1) and Carlos Ruiz (241.9). I’d take all three of those over Wilson Ramos (210.3).

Albert Pujols (2.4) is ahead of Miguel Cabrera (3.1). With word that Cabrera will play third base this year for the Tigers after the addition of Prince Fielder (14.9), there has been a groundswell of support for Cabrera to go #1 overall, so he’ll likely pass Pujols soon.

Mark Trumbo is #11 at first base right now. That’s gonna have to change. Trumbo doesn’t have a lock on a daily spot in the Angels lineup, and he’s coming back of a lower-body injury. I’d be hard pressed to have him in my top-20 at first right now.

Three second baseman are going in the top-25: Robinson Cano (9.9), Dustin Pedroia (19) and Ian Kinsler (24.7). The next time a second sacker is being called out is at 54.1 – Dan Uggla.

Ben Zobrist (83.2) is being taken behind Rickie Weeks (78.9). Really? Why? The last three years Zobrist has produced an average 5×5 line of .267-19-86-89-20. Weeks is well behind at .269-19-52-72-7. That’s not even close. Plus, Zobrist qualifies in the outfield as well.

Alex Rodriguez has an ADP of 60.6, rounds ahead of Mark Reynolds (119). I know it’s Arod, but does his production the last three years warrant the ADP difference here? He has a sizable average advantage – .277 to .228 – but that’s really it. Arod has hit 30 or less homers each of the past three years. Reynolds has had at least 32 HR each of the last three years. Given the health issues of Arod, he’s also averaged 96 RBI, 73 runs and eight steals, behind the average numbers of Reynolds (91 RBI, 87 runs, 12 steals). I’m just saying.

Looking at ADP, I can say without question that there is no one outside the top-11 right now that I would want starting for me at the hot corner in a 12-team league. Here are guys in the 12-16 range, any of them excite you? Ryan Roberts (196.5), Mike Moustakas (209.3), Lonnie Chisenhall (216.4), Chipper Jones (219.4) and Chase Headley (224.2). OK maybe Headley interests me, but you know I have a crush on him (see his Player Profile).

I’ve made the argument elsewhere, so I’ll say it again here. I know that Elvis Andrus (44.7) is a much safer bet than Dee Gordon (149.3), but I certainly wouldn’t mind waiting on my shortstop for 100 picks to select the Dodgers’ youngster.

Some early values at shortstop: Yunel Escobar (215), Ian Desmond (236.4), Alcides Escobar (240.1).

There are two guys in the top-10 that call the outfield home that I would be surprised if they returned first round value: Jose Bautista (4.2) and Jacoby Ellsbury (8.6).

You take Ellsbury at 8.6 and give me Andrew McCutchen at 26.3. Heck, I’ll take the value play of B.J. Upton at 67.3 if I’m looking for return on investment.

Michael Bourn (58.1) gets no respect. He’s the elite stolen base threat in the game, and because of his wheels he’s been a top-50 overall performer the past three years. Still, his ADP is outside the top-50 and he is being taken behind guys like Jay Bruce (40.4) and Desmond Jennings (55.9). That’s a mistake in my book. Speaking of Bruce, I know he is young and people love to think that he has another level to take his game, but why in the world is he being drafted ahead of guys like Shin-Soo Choo (65.3), B.J. Upton, Adam Jones (74.6) and Shane Victorino (74.8)? Hell, Lance Berkman (92.4) was better than Bruce last year and he also qualifies at first base.

Bruce: .256-32-97-84-8
Lance: .301-31-94-90-2

If all this ADP talk has you excited next week is going to be huge for you. I’ll release my 2012 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Guide in the coming days. That’s when the real fun gets going.

By Ray Flowers

Random ADP Thoughts

l probably touch on plenty of Average Draft Position data over the coming month plus as we get ready for the start of the regular season. Today, I’m gonna look at the data from Mock Draft Central and point out some of the more vexing things I’m currently seeing.

Is Andre Ethier really a top-11 outfielder like he is being drafted (ADP of 40)? The dude has a beautiful swing, you’ll get no argument from me there, but there are some serious concerns with me if you are thinking of going with Ethier in the top-40 or so picks. (1) He’s only had one season of 25 homers. (2) He’s only had one season of 85 RBI. He’s only had one season of 400 at-bats in which he hit .295. (4) He’s never stolen more than six bases. So let’s boil that down. How much would you pay for a .295-25-85 season with six steals? Aubrey Huff hit .290 with 26 homers, 86 RBI and seven steals last year and his ADP this year is 111. I’m just saying.

Rickie Weeks is going off the board eight picks before Ian Kinsler and 70 before Kelly Johnson. Huh. I know Kinsler is an injury waiting to happen, but really, is he any more of a risk than Weeks? In three of the his six seasons Weeks has failed to appear in 100 games. Kinsler has appeared in at least 100 games in each of his five seasons. Let’s compare the performance of each man per 162 games.

Weeks: .253-22-67-113-23
Kinsler: .281-24-83-115-28
Johnson: .269-18-70-91-11

I snuck Johnson in there at the end to show that he is likely the best option of all three if you are talking about a return on your investment. I wouldn’t put his upside anywhere near to the other two, but there could be value in selecting him five rounds later. By the way, I’m not sold on anyone taking Weeks before Kinsler.

I get why people are scared off from Mark Reynolds, I mean the dude hit .198 last year. But should he be going off the board at pick 129? Over the past three years, here is how Reynolds ranks amongst third sackers: he is first with 104 homers, fourth with 284 RBI, second with 264 runs scored and third with 185 extra base hits. Are you really sure he isn’t a better value than the Pirates up and coming slugger Pedro Alvarez who is going off the board with an ADP of 88? Alvarez hit only .256 last year, Reynolds is .242 for his career, and Alvarez struck out 119 times in just 347 at-bats. I really don’t see too much difference there.

Alex Gordon is barely cracking the top-400 right now, and with good reason after he hit a mere .215 in 242 at-bats with the Royals last season. Still, the guy was the #2 overall selection in the 2005 Draft, he’s just 27 years old, and I think the Royals will give him a legit shot at everyday playing time making him a terrific AL-only option with some mixed league appeal (if you grab him really late). Don’t overlook that Gordon punished Triple-A pitching last year to the tune of a .315-14-44-59-7 line in a mere 68 games. It’s now or never time for him, and he knows it.

Roy Oswalt led the NL in WHIP last season (1.03) and he is going off the board as the 27th starting pitcher with an ADP of 101. Let’s compare, for giggles, his work last season to that of Zack Greinke who is going off the board in the top-10 amongst starters with an ADP of 51.

Oswalt: 13-13, 2.76 ERA, 193 Ks, 1.03 WHIP, 3.51 K/BB in 211.2 IP
Greinke: 10-14, 4.17 ERA, 181 Ks, 1.25 WHIP, 3.29 K/BB in 220 IP

Surprised? I’ll give Greinke a boost in value since he will now be in the NL, and he clearly is the one of the duo who has more “upside,” but really, does that justify the fact that he is going off the board 50 selections ahead of Oswalt? Not in my mind.

If you have any questions drop me a line at rflowers@fanball.com, and make sure you follow me on Twitter at the Baseball Guys’ Twitter account.

By Ray Flowers

Anatomy of a Draft: Vegas Style

This is the final piece of my three part series reviewing the FSTA Draft that was held in Las Vegas last week (ah, how the good times fade fast don’t they?).

Part I - I gave a review of the team I drafted in Vegas Baby, and the FSTA.

PART II - I discussed why I chose Carl Crawford over Troy Tulowitzki in the first round in Pick Your Poison: Crawford or Tulo.

In PART III, thanks to the work of Jason Collette of Dock of the Rays, we have the answer as to who made the best selections in the FSTA Draft compared to the current ADP data (you can see the entirety of Jason’s work in the spreadsheet he put together of the draft). In what follows I’ll discuss some of the key selections that stood out, either players that I got on the cheap or guys I might have reached for according to ADP, and give my thoughts on why I made the decisions that I did.

Carl Crawford (taken 7th, ADP of 16): You can click in the link above for PART II to see why I think Crawford’s current ADP mark is way off.

Jimmy Rollins (taken 33, ADP of 42): The last of the elite shortstops on the board was my second choice with my third round pick with the first one being Ryan Howard (he was taken 32nd). For my thoughts on Rollins see Top-10 SS for 2011.

Brandon Phillips (59 taken , ADP of 35): A nice value given where he was drafted, and because he was the last of the top shelf second sackers left on the board. Coming off a “down” year he still scored 100 runs, hit 18 homers, stole 16 bags and batted .275. I’ll take a repeat of that while knowing that he went .276-20-98-78-25 in 2009.

Aramis Ramirez (taken 85, ADP of 104): Aramis is scaring some people off with his down 2010 effort that included a bunch of time on the shelf (he had just 465 at-bats). Would it surprise you to know that he still had 25 homers, the same total as Ryan Zimmerman and three more than Evan Longoria? Heck, his RBI total of 83 was only two less than Zimmerman and Mark Reynolds.

Dan Haren (taken 98, ADP of 52): The steal of the draft? I almost took Haren in the 6th round, then the 7th, before finally selecting him in the 8th. From 2008-10, Haren is only of only three hurlers to win at least 12 games, with an ERA under 3.95 and at least 200 Ks each season. The others are two pretty strong hurlers – Tim Lincecum and Roy Halladay.

Joakim Soria (taken 111, ADP of 78): Drafting at this point of the year is tricky, you don’t even know who the 9th inning arm will be for some clubs, and that was reflected in the draft as most of the experts waited on taking their first closer. I still remember being burned last year when I took Joe Nathan early “knowing” he was a lock for 35 saves. Hopefully this call works out better.

Aaron Hill (taken 124, ADP of 180): I needed power, so I’m not worried about having overshot Hill’s ADP by so much. With guys like Chone Figgins, Brian Roberts and Howie Kendrick the best options left on the board at second, and already having a roster loaded with speedy guys, I needed pop and Hill was the best option left to fill that need. After all, Hill is second at the second base position the last two years with 62 homers and third with 176 RBI.

Carlos Lee (taken 163, ADP of 132): A solid choice for two reasons. First, he also qualifies at first base giving me some depth behind Prince Fielder and another option as a corner infielder. Second, while his bat is slowing, Lee still hit 24 homers with 89 RBI last season. That makes it 11-straight years with 24 homers and at least 80 RBI.

James Shields (taken 189, ADP of 173): He might have been the unluckiest pitcher in baseball last year. Shields went 13-15 with a 5.18 ERA despite a career best K/9 mark of 8.28 and a superb K/BB ratio of 3.67. If things normalize he should be back on track and that means posting an ERA of about 4.00 with a 1.25 WHIP and about 175 Ks, a point I made, in depth, in Breaking Down: James Shields.

Scott Baker (taken 228, ADP of 183): He may never put it all together, but we’ve all have a crush on someone that doesn’t really make sense (I don’t even want to hear who some of you have fantasies about). Still, I can’t help but think if he ever put it all together that he could be a difference maker. If we take the best numbers of career and combine them we end up with 15 wins, a 3.45 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP and 162 Ks.

Carlos Zambrano (taken 241, ADP of 331): I guess no one is buying his unbelievable finish to 2010 (8-0, 1.58 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 64 Ks over 74 IP)? There are valid concerns about his workload and his absolutely bonkers personality, but the guy can still pitch when he’s healthy and motivated.

Ryan Madson (taken 280, ADP of 400): One of the best right-handed setup men in baseball. Madson is second in line to take over the 9th inning in Philadelphia, and you can argue that he is coming off his best season with career bests in K/9 (10.87), BB/9 (2.21), K/BB (4.92) and WHIP (1.04). Now if he can just avoid trying to beat things up when he is angry.

Nate McLouth (taken 293, ADP of 400): The man gets no respect. The Braves say he will open the year as the starter in CF, he is just 29 years old, and he went 26/23 in 2008 and 20/19 in 2009. You can hear more of my thoughts on McLouth in Around the Horn: January 21, 2011.

By Ray Flowers

ADP Talk: What Stands Out?

With the fantasy sports world just about over football – for those of you that have already moved on the Superbowl is in a week – mock drafts for baseball are really starting to heat up. Today, in preparation for our discussion on the Fanball Fantasy Drive (you can hear the show every day, from 5-8 PM EDT, on Sirius 211 and XM 147 – you can call in with your questions on any fantasy sport), I thought I would point out some of the interesting ADP trends that stuck out for me when I was reviewing things over at MockDraftCentral this morning.

Third Base Going Early

Almost the first term out of everyone’s mouth this draft season seems to be “position scarcity.” There are a couple of positions that seem pretty top heavy with shortstop and third base being at the head of the list. When looking at the ADP information we find fourth third basemen going in the top-20 selections: Evan Longoria (ADP of 5 overall), David Wright (10), Alex Rodriguez (16) and Ryan Zimmerman (20). I completely agree that those are the top-4 third sackers on the board, but I really wonder if it’s worth reaching on Longoria as a top-5 option. Just compare his numbers last season to Zimmerman.

Longoria: .294-22-104-96-15
Zimmerman: .307-25-85-85-4

Longoria certainly has a higher ceiling, but I’d lean toward Zimmerman in the second versus Longoria that early given the return on investment (ROI) opportunity.

The Top-5 Shortstops

Hanley Ramirez (2), Troy Tulowitzki (4), Jose Reyes (26), Jimmy Rollins (43), Derek Jeter (48) – that’s your top-5. Only two other shortstops are in the top-100: Elvis Andrus (71) and Alex Ramirez (100).

Hanley Ramirez OPS dropped .101 points last year. He’s also seen his homer total dip from 33 to 21 the last three years while his runs scored marked has gone from 125 to 92. Is he really the no-doubt #2 man overall?

Reyes 17 picks ahead of Rollins? I’m not buying that. You can read about my thoughts on those two in Top-10 SS for 2011. I also don’t think that Jeter is a bad pickup this year (The Value of Jeter). At the same time, Ramirez hit .012 points higher than Jeter, with eight more homers, three more RBI and just five fewer steals last season – and he is available 52 picks later.

Only One SP in Top-20

Only one starting pitcher is going in the top-20, and that is the Phillies’ Roy Halladay. Most people tend to eschew starting pitching early in drafts because there is more volatility with pitchers from year to year. At the same time, with hitting on the decline, perhaps pitchers should be taken a bit earlier? Nah. Only two other hurlers are going in the top-34: Tim Lincecum (21) and Felix Hernandez (27).

* Riddle me this – which one of these pitching lines would you want most?

12-9, 3.18 ERA, 185 Ks, 1.00 WHIP in 212.1 IP
13-10, 2.91 ERA, 212 Ks, 1.18 WHIP in 204.1 IP
11-6, 2.30 ERA, 186 Ks, 1.11 WHIP in 183.2 IP

Those numbers belong to Cliff Lee (37), Clayton Kershaw (51) and Josh Johnson (66). Are you sure you want to reach that early for Mr. Lee?

Hell, do you want Lincecum (21) over Kershaw (51) given what each will cost you?

Lincecum: 16-10, 3.43 ERA, 231 Ks, 1.27 WHIP in 212.1 IP
Kershaw: 13-10, 2.91 ERA, 212 Ks, 1.18 WHIP in 204.1 IP

* When are most teams jumping in and taking their #1 starter? Look at picks 53-66 for that as eight of those 14 picks are being spent on starting pitchers.

People Waiting on RPs

Not surprisingly, the best closer in the history of baseball is being drafted first at the position as Mariano Rivera has an ADP of 61. Only four other relievers are going in the top-100 with a clear grouping of three others being taken ahead of everyone else: Carlos Marmol (71), Brian Wilson (77), Joakim Soria (78). After that, we have to wait until Heath Bell at 96.

People Waiting on Catchers

Five catchers are being taken in the top-100 as people seem acutely aware of the fact that injuries can bite backstops at any time. Moreover, only six catchers are going in the next 100 picks meaning that in standard 12 team, 1 catcher leagues, someone is waiting until after the 200th selection to take first catcher. Currently, the 12th and 13th catchers off the board are Yadier Molina (215) and Carlos Ruiz (221). Those are the two catchers I selected in Vegas Baby, and the FSTA (that league starts two catchers).

* Catchers going in the 300′s that could be decent bargains in 2011: Chris Iannetta (337), Yorvit Torrealba (372) and J.P. Arencebia (374).

You can read more about Torrealba in Californian’s on the Move, and if the dumba– Rockies would just give Iannetta regular at-bats, he could be a fantasy beast. Per 541 at-bats in his career, Iannetta has produced an average of 25 homers and 91 RBI. Think Mike Napoli-lite.

By Ray Flowers