A Successful Return

Yes, I made it home. If you are wondering why that is a slight shock, make sure you give my last blog posting a read where I lay out what the just completed weekend had in store for this kid (you can find that entry at Las Vegas Vacation). I don’t normally write about football here – pretty obvious when the title of my blog is BaseballGuys.com, but with less than a week to go before the NFL season counts, and with a wild weekend to recap, I’m going to push ahead with an entry about the gridiron.

Here are some of the highlights of the proceedings in Vegas as Fanball hosted the National Fantasy Football Championship.

* Some of the ADP numbers – Average Draft Position – certainly didn’t seem to play themselves out at the NFFC.

Jay Cutler was getting no love as he even fell out of the top-10 at the quarterback position at times.

Kevin Kolb who soared up to #7 at the QB spot has seen his ADP dip back to #10. He was being taken by some inside the top-10, but there may have been as many times when he was on the outside looking in at the top-10 at the position.

Maurice Jones-Drew has everyone panicked with that knee injury of his. The clear cut #3 option overall according to almost everyone worth a darn, he was falling to 4-5-6 and he even fell to #7 in one draft I witnessed. If he falls to you at #7 thank your lucky stars as you’ll likely get a tremendous value (kind of like last season when Joe Mauer was falling into the 7th to 9th round because people were worried about the back injury that was likely to sideline him for the month of April. We all know how fantabulistic that turned out for those that took a chance on the Twins’ catcher. What, you thought I would write a whole piece without mentioning baseball? You know me better than that by now don’t you?).

* Ryan Grant continues to get no love. I guess people see him and think ‘little’ upside, though in his defense, he is one of only four running backs to have rushed for at least 1,200-yards in each of the past two seasons. The others are Adrian Peterson, Thomas Jones and Chris Johnson.

* The Bellagio hosts a hell of an event. Plus, I swear on my mother’s life, I think there are only hot women with four inch heels and tight miniskirts allowed within the city limits of Las Vegas. There’s some astounding scenery in that town.

* Everyone is on the bandwagon with the 49ers defense.

* Speaking of that bandwagon, Arian Foster‘s can barely hold another soul. The guy is simply zooming up draft boards at an astounding rate for a guy who, four months ago, was barely on anyone’s radar.

* How in the world did I have to pay $13 for a White Russian? And no, I’m not talking about one of those hotties in a mini-skirt, I mean the drink. Don’t worry, I got back at them though with my $17 dollar Eiffel Tower drink from Paris. That’s my 15.6 laptop in the picture for scale, and despite what looks like a pink hue, the color was a manly white.

* People still seem to love taking quarterback’s early. I touched on why I think that isn’t necessarily the best plan of action in NFL Mailbag – The QB Conundrum.

So there it is.

I’m back at home in sunny California, I didn’t lose a kidney or get arrested, and I remember the entire trip (no blackouts). All in all, that sounds like a pretty good weekend doesn’t it?

By Ray Flowers

ADP Talk: What is It?

This is the time of year when everyone is firing off their top-whatever lists ranking players in fantasy baseball. Those lists certainly have value as they give you an idea of what the “experts” are thinking in terms of player value, but they are really only half the story. Just because I have Howie Kendrick as my 11th second baseman, doesn’t tell you two things. (1) It doesn’t tell you where he is being drafted (maybe everyone else has him 16th?). (2) It doesn’t tell you when he is being drafted? That’s where ADP comes into play.

What is ADP? Simply put, it means Average Draft Position. What is that? It’s just what it says – in a standard draft when, on average, is the player being drafted? This information is crucial. Let’s return to our example of Howie Kendrick.

Again, let’s postulate my rankings system has Kendrick at 11th amongst second basemen. Therefore, you would most likely want to draft Kendrick after the top-10 second sackers were out of the way right (duh)? Now I trust my own draft list so I would have a lot of confidence in it on draft day, but I would be foolish not to check out what others were thinking. The best way to do this is to look over ADP information from a source, something like Couch Managers for example. That site offers draft software which enables people to do as many mock drafts as time permits. After those drafts, the site then compiles all the data and presents its ADP data based up on all the drafts for a specific time frame. This way you can average out the Anaheim crazy who drafted Kendrick 5th at the position as well as those leagues that are scared away by his poor track record of health causing him to fall to 22nd. The resulting number would be his “average” draft position (how convenient given the title of this piece, no?) This is the real world information you need in order to know where he is being drafted at the position as well as where he is being drafted overall.

Let’s take a look at the actual data.

Currently, Kendrick has an ADP of 173 according to Couch Managers. This means that he is going 173rd overall in standard leagues. So, if you are trying to decide if you should take him with the 122nd pick overall, you’d likely be able to wait at least another round or two before being pressed into having to make a decision. If you think Kendrick can be the 122nd most valuable player you can certainly draft him at that spot, but the ADP information allows you to understand that you don’t need to draft him that early – that is if you buy into the law of averages and what others are doing.

Secondarily, ADP data obviously gives you an understanding of where amongst the hierarchy at the position a player is being selected. Again, if I have him at 11th yet his ADP value shows him to be going 18th at the position as he is according to Couch Managers, I may be able to wait a bit longer before pulling the trigger on the Angels’ second sacker.

Third, ADP data is also useful because it can help to solidify some tiering thoughts in your mind. As an example, at second base Dan Uggla has an ADP of 87, 11th at the position. The 12th man on the list, Asdrubal Cabrera, isn’t being drafted until 120th overall. That means the average fantasy drafter clearly sees a big gap in the perceived value of second basemen with 33 spots in the overall rankings separating #11 from #12. Useful information, right?

In future pieces I’ll break down some of those players that I think are going off the board too early, as well as some of those that might be great draft day bargains, but I wanted to make sure we were all on the same page when it came to ADP data before I moved into the nitty gritty of it.

And finally, in case you missed it, one of the greatest sports stories I have ever come across showed up today, and I would be remiss if I didn’t direct you towards it. It involves a wiener, a guys eye, and a mascot, and if you think that sounds oddly enticing do yourself a favor and click on the link to Living Up the Nickname. Trust me, you won’t regret spending a few minutes on this one.

By Ray Flowers