Draft Day Challenge, May 16

BaseballGuys.com has partnered with DraftDay.com to give all my wonderful followers, that’s you, the chance to play the game on a daily basis. On Tuesday and Thursday’s every week, I’ll share some insight into a few of the better plays for the day – even if I’m willing to admit that daily games are a bit of a crap shoot given the difficulty in predicting how a handful of at-bats will work out.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

One other source for those of you on Twitter. @MLBDailyLineups – lists all the lineups in one spot so you can make sure you don’t have someone in your lineup that is sitting on the bench that day.

CATCHERS
1. Tyler Flowers
2. Kurt Suzuki

Flowers is hitting .333 the past week and he faces the middling Jerome Williams who has allowed seven runs over his last 11 innings despite being solid this year with a 3.06 ERA.

Wilson Ramos is hurt again, and it looks like a DL stint could be coming. Suzuki should get lots of work behind the dish, and he’s got a hit in nine of his last 10 games.

FIRST BASE
1. Lyle Overbay
2. Adam LaRoche

A surprising contributor for the Yankees this season, Overbay should keep the good times rolling against Aaron Harang whom he has 11 hits in 24 at-bats against (.458 average).

LaRoche has gone 5-for-14 (.357) against Mr. Volquez with two walks leading to a .438 OBP. LaRoche has also been hot of late (.321 with a homer and four RBIs the past week) making him a strong play.

SECOND BASE
1. Marco Scutaro
2. Dustin Pedroia

Scutaro is hitting .480 the past week with six runs scored. When you are producing like that it doesn’t matter who you are facing (it’s Jhoulys Chacin in Colorado where Scutaro has hit .378 for his career).

Can Mr. Cobb of the Rays stop Pedroia who has 12 hits in his last 24 at-bats (.500)?

THIRD BASE
1. Pablo Sandoval
2. Adrian Beltre

I’ve never been a huge fan of Jhoulys Chacin, not when pitching in Colorado, and that’s where he takes the hill against Pablo Sandoval who is hitting .412 with two homers against him in 17 at-bats.

It’s tough to go with anyone when they face Justin Verlander, but Beltre has long held his own. He’s hit .314 with a homer in 35 at-bats, though his OPS has only been .771.

SHORTSTOP
1. Troy Tulowitzki
2. Yunel Escobar

Tulo is the best hitting shortstop in the game right now (Tulo is hitting .322, has a 1.013 OPS and 32 RBIs in 36 games). He’s also murdered Matt Cain hitting .340 with four homers in 53 games. The matchup will also take place in Colorado. Nuff said.

Escobar has four hits in 10 at-bats against the struggling Felix Doubront (he’s allowed a whopping 12 runs over his last nine innings pitched). Escobar might finally be pulling out of his season long slump as well as he’s hit in four straight and seven of eight games.

OUTFIELD
1. Jason Bay
2. Dayan Viciedo

Want a cheap outfield option who has had a great amount of success against the hurler he’s facing? Bay has hit .400 in 35 at-bats against Andy Pettitte who has a 5.64 ERA and 1.48 WHIP the past three weeks.

Viciedo has looked good since he returned to action (Viciedo has hits in nine of 10 games, and he’s gone deep twice with four RBIs in his last three outings). Can’t get any better than he has been against Jerome Williams though as he is a perfect 5-for-5. He even has a walk which might be more shocking.

STARTING PITCHERS
1. Jose Quintana
2. Edinson Volquez
3. Alex Cobb
4. Matt Cain

Quintana has a 3.72 ERA and 1.22 ERA on the season, and he faces the Angels in Anaheim Thursday. In his last outing he allowed six base runners and two earned runs over six innings against this same Angels club. Does the hitters familiarity, having seen him less than a week ago, scare you off?

Volquez has a 3-0 record and 2.49 ERA the past three weeks as he’s all of a sudden locked in. He’s facing a Nats team that is down Jayson Werth and potentially Bryce Harper, but that’s still a solid club and the game is on the road where Volquez often struggles.

Cobb had an astounding 13 Ks in his last outing, astrounding because he only recorded 14 outs (that’s the first time that has ever happened in big league history). Cobb faces the Red Sox, a team he allowed three earned runs, while striking out six batters, in a 6.2 inning loss on April 14th. He has a 3.18 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over four starts agianst the Sox.

Cain pitches in Colorado, and that’s always a difficult thing for any hurler, but Cain has pitched very well against the Rockies in his career with a 15-7 record an a 3.11 ERA. He’s 5-3 with a 4.11 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in Colorado. Cain is also 2-0 with a 2.95 ERA the past three weeks.

By Ray Flowers

Draft Day Challenge, May 14

BaseballGuys.com has partnered with DraftDay.com to give all my wonderful followers the chance to play the game on a daily basis. On Tuesday and Thursday’s here at the site, every week, I’ll be giving you some insight into the mind of The Oracle as I will give you some of my best plays for the day – even if I’m willing to admit that daily games are a bit of a crap shoot given the difficulty in predicting how a handful of at-bats will work out.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

One other source for those of you on Twitter.

@MLBDailyLineups – lists all the lineups in one spot so you can make sure you don’t have someone in your lineup that is sitting on the bench that day.

CATCHERS
1. Brian McCann
2. Joe Mauer

McCann has hit the ground a running with a .333 average, three homers and 10 RBIs in his first 21 at-bats. He’s 0-for-2 against the hot Patrick Corbin, but McCann is going so well, including 7-for-17 of late (.412), that you should be starting him regardless.

You could obviously list Mauer’s name in every one of these writeups and be fine, but he’s scalding right now. Mauer has hit .447 the past two weeks with 13 runs scored. That’s enough to overlook his “mere” .316 mark against Mr. Peavy over 29 at-bats.

FIRST BASE
1. Edwin Encarnacion
2. Billy Butler

EE faces Barry Zito, in Toronto. That alone should make you interested. When you hear what he has done in nine plate appearances, your interest better be piqued: 4-for-7, two homers, eight RBIs. He also has two homers and six RBIs the past week.

Coming off a huge game (five hits, five RBIs), there is no reason to expect Butler to slow down against Jason Vargas considering he has six hits and three walks in 16 PAs against him. The end result is a .462 average, .563 OBP, two homers and five RBIs.

SECOND BASE
1. Robinson Cano
2. Neil Walker

Cano faces the all mighty King Felix Tuesday, but he’s had a ton of success in the matchup. Besides only striking out six times in 41 at-bats he’s also hit .366 with two homers and five RBIs.

Walker is back from the DL, and though he went 0-for-4 in his first game, perhaps facing Kyle Lohse will help. Walker has eight hits, to go along with five RBIs, in 20 at-bats (.400 average).

THIRD BASE
1. Ryan Zimmerman
2. Adrian Beltre

It’s borderline stupid to suggest playing anyone against Mr. Kershaw, but here goes. Zimmerman has four hits in nine at-bats against the lefty with nary a strikeout. He’s also starting to warm at the dish with a .318 mark and five RBIs the past week.

Going with two vets at the hot corner today. Beltre has hit .316 with five homers and 14 RBIs against Bartolo Colon over 57 at-bats. He owns him, or something like that. Beltre has also hist .346 with two homers and seven RBIs the past week.

SHORTSTOP
1. Ben Zobrist
2. Jayson Nix

Oh that John Lackey. Seems like many batters enjoys seeing him on the bump anymore. Zobrist is 8-for-20, a cool .400 average, with five walks against Lackey leading to a .538 OBP.

Jeter and Nunez are down and out, so Nix is the starter at short for the Yankees. He’s produced five hits in 10 at-bats against King Felix and he’s also rapped out eight hits, and six runs, over the past week of games.

OUTFIELD
1. Jose Tabata
2. Andre Ethier

Add Tabata to the list of guys that crush Mr. Lohse. Well crush might be too strong a term, but he does have 10 hits in 21 at-bats (.476), and that’s impressive. Tabata also has seven hits in his last 14 at-bats this season.

Ethier is hitting only .254 on the year, but things are looking up. He’s hit .318 the past week, and now he gets to face Dan Haren who he has only hit .426 against in 47 at-bats (two homer,s seven RBIs as well).

STARTING PITCHERS
1. Chris Tillman
2. Jeremy Guthrie
3. Julio Teheran
4. Scott Kazmir

Tillman is 3-0 with a 2.03 ERA over his last four starts and he takes on the Padres Tuesday. That’s usually a good thing, facing the Padres, right?

The last three weeks Guthrie is 3-0 with a 0.42 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. He faces an Angels team that has scored just 156 runs this season, the same total as the Astros.

The Braves haven’t lost a single one of Teheran’s starts this season, even if he is only 2-0 on the season. In his last three starts he has allowed a total of six runs which is impressive even if he has only 11 Ks and has allowed 25 hits (19.1 innings). He faces the D’backs.

Kazmir is 2-1 with a 2.65 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, not to mention 21 Ks, over his last 17 innings. I picked him up this week in two leagues. Must mean he’s bound to fall on his face. He faces a Phillies team that has a .619 OPS over their last eight games.

By Ray Flowers

FanDuel Contest: Vegas and $1 Million?

Fantasy baseball may never be the same. Thanks to FanDuel.com, you have a chance to enter a contest to win a free trip to Vegas, oh, and to pocket a grand prize of $200,000. All it will cost you is $10. Interested? If so, and why on earth wouldn’t a chance to seem some Vegas show girls, to put a $20 spot down on the craps table, or to walk away with enough money to put your kids through school not appeal to you?

$1 million Daily Fantasy Baseball Championship on FanDuel

For the next 14 weeks a winner will be crowned in the $1 million Daily Fantasy Baseball Championship. Each weekly winner will then be flown to Vegas, all expenses paid by FanDuel.com, and given a shot at the $200,000 grand prize. That’s right. Win two weekly matchups and you’ve got $200,000 coming your way. And don’t think that you have to enter hundreds of times to win. And don’t think that you have to enter hundreds of times to win. Jordy Nelson last year entered once, one time, and he ended up in the Finals in Vegas cause he won his weekly matchup. He then proceeded to win that year’s grand prize of $100,000. All from one $10 entry.

So what do you do? You go to Fanduel.com and sign up for the April 5th contest.

You then put together your salary cap team (the rules are very simple and can be found at the top of the page if you follow the link).

You win, you’re rolling in cash. Simple as that.

Who should you have in your lineup? Never say that The Oracle isn’t a nice guy. In the video below I will discuss some of the matchups and some names that you might consider adding to your lineup for your chance to become a very rich person courtesy of FanDuel.com.

And now, a video giving some thoughts on the matchups of the day.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Nelson Cruz

A forgotten player, that’s what we could call the Rangers’ Nelson Cruz. A power hitter that used to have speed, Cruz has lost his ability to steal bases due to continuing leg issues, and Josh Hamilton is no longer his running mate now that he has signed with the Angels. Because of those factors Cruz rarely is mentioned when talks get around power hitting outfielders (check out his current ADP is seeing him go off the board with the 117th selection overall). Why should you be interested in Cruz if he falls in your mixed league draft? If you’ve got five minutes I’ll be happy to explain to you why.

Cruz went 30/20 in 2009, his first big league season of more than 307 at-bats. The sky seemed to be the limit for the athletic, power hitting monster out of Texas. Alas, he’s never reached those homer or steals totals again. Here are his marks in each category since 2009.

2009: 33 homers, 20 steals
2010: 22 homers, 17 steals
2011: 29 homers, nine steals
2012: 24 homers, eight steals

Let’s deal with the steals first.

Cruz has solid speed, and obviously knows how to swipe a bad, but the problem is that he is always seemingly dealing with some injury to his bottom half. As a result, he’s just not running anymore. The last two years he has attempted 14 and 12 steals. Remember, he went for 37 steals in 2009-10. Those days aren’t likely to come back, so 10 should be the upside of expectations with Cruz.

If you haven’t caught Arrow on the CW, I would recommend it. Solid show that’s superhero in nature but more along the lines of Christopher Nolan than Tim Burton. The show features Katie Cassidy, the daughter of David Cassidy, you know The Partridge Family guy. Well done David… on both counts.

As for the power with Nelson, it’s all about at-bats. Oddly, Cruz had a career best 585 at-bats last year and he only went deep 24 times. The previous three years, while he was averaging 28 homers a season, his average at-bat total was 445. IF he can stay healthy 30 homers seem very doable for Cruz. In fact, per 550 at-bats in his career Cruz has averaged 29 homers a season. Why did his total drop last season relative to his at-bat total? The reason can be explained with two measures. (1) He posted his lowest fly ball rate in four years at 40.8 percent (his career mark is 43.3 percent). (2) His HR/F ratio was a five year low at 13.1 percent (career 15.9 percent). Moreover, in three of the previous four seasons his HR/F ratio was over 18.5 percent. If both numbers return to ‘normal,’ as they easily could in 2013 and he stays healthy, that 30 homer season is coming.

As for the run production, Cruz is one of four outfielders to have at least 76 RBIs each of the past four seasons even though he has averaged just 480 at-bats a season (the others are Ryan Braun, Nick Swisher and Torii Hunter). Last season, with his health (159 games), he drove in a career bets 90 runners.

The batting average pretty much it what it is with Cruz. A .268 career hitter, you need to put out of your head that .318 mark in 2010 (399 at-bats) and that .330 average in 2008 (115 at-bats). In three of the last four seasons he has hit .260, .263 and .260. His career BB/K rate is 0.36. His career BABIP is .303. His career line drive rate is 16.9 percent. Nothing there suggests that he’s anything other than the batting average producer that he has appeared to be for the majority of his career.

Cruz doesn’t have Josh Hamilton to ride shotgun to this season, and that’s a concern. However, some people may take that thought too far leaving Cruz as a potentially solid add on draft day. The Rangers still have strong hitters in Ian Kinsler and Adrian Beltre, and guys like Mitch Moreland, David Murphy, A.J. Pierzynski and Lance Berkman can all hit too. It may not be the prettiest group the Rangers have ever put together, but the offense should still be plentiful in Texas. Don’t reach on Cruz, you won’t have to given his ADP, but if you need some power in the outfield and the pickings are starting to get a wee bit thin, don’t forget that if Cruz can repeat last seasons games played total that a run at 30 homers and 100 RBIs isn’t at all out of the question.

* Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

2012 Positional Review – Third Base

Now that the 2012 season is over, it’s time to review how my predictions went for each position in fantasy baseball. To that end, I will review my top-10 at each position and give a brief rundown on how each of the ten performed. I’ll also list which player was a “Hit” (someone who lived up to expectations) as well as a “Miss” (the player who simply failed to impress).

Note: All of these rankings are taken from the 2012 BASEBALLGUYS DRAFT GUIDE

For more on the Draft Guide you can click on the link.

For an update on what you missed in the Draft Guide, click on the link.

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

SECOND BASE

2012 THIRD BASE Top-10

1 Evan Longoria
2 Jose Bautista
3 Ryan Zimmerman
4 Kevin Youkilis
5 Aramis Ramirez
6 David Wright
7 Adrian Beltre
8 Pablo Sandoval
9 Alex Rodriguez
10 Michael Young

Longoria performed as expected when on the field hitting .289 with 17 homers and 55 RBIs in just 74 games. Of course, it was just 74 games as a leg issue limited him for a huge portion of the year. One of those first round selections that didn’t live up to his draft day cost.

Bautista, just like Longoria, was exactly what was expected when on the field as he blasted 27 homers with 65 RBIs and 64 runs scored in a mere 92 games. Of course, his average fell back to the doldrums (.241) as I always thought it would. For 2013 he will only qualify in the outfield.

Zimmerman hit. 224 in April and had just two homers on June 1st. Awful right? Despite that start, in the end it was a “normal” Ryan Zimmerman season, i.e., a damn good one. When it was all said and done he hit .282 with 25 homers, 95 RBIs and 93 runs scored. Damn impressive considering the start he had.

Youkilis played for both Sox this year, and he actually wasn’t all that bad in Chicago as he hit 15 long balls with 46 RBIs and 47 runs scored in just 80 games played. That’s 30-90-90 in a full season folks. Too bad he hit .233 with the Red Sox and .236 with the Whites.

Ramirez is always taken later on draft day than he should be. He went out in his first year in Milwaukee and hit .300 with 27 homers, 105 RBIs and 92 runs scored (not to mention a career best 50 doubles). Hell, he even stole nine bases. Once again he was a rock of offensive production from the hot corner.

Wright hit only .258 with a .750 OPS in the second half. That’s terrible. Still, how can you turn away from a guy who hit .306 with 21 homers, 93 RBIs, 91 runs and 15 steals? Rumors of him being washed up simply weren’t remotely accurate.

Beltre had the second best season of his career hitting .321 with 36 bombds, 102 ribbies and 95 runs scored. His owners won’t forget his mad dash to the finish either as he hit .345 with 11 homers over his last 29 games.

Sandoval struggled with yet another hammate bone issue that required surgery, and he continued to gain weight at an alarming rate. He hit .283 with 63 RBIs in just 396 at-bats, but there are a ton of reasons why Sandoval shouldn’t be drafted too highly next season. Get it, a “ton” of reasons?

Rodriguez had hit 30 homers with 100 RBIs each year from from 1998-2010, a major league record 13-straight seasons. Last year he slumped to 16-62 in 99 games, and this year he fell even further with 18 homers and 57 RBIs in 122 contests. At least he stole 13 bases to give him a tiny bit of value. OK, I’m stretching.

Young had a solid end to the year hitting .313 over his final 31 games, but that still left his season long average at .277, his first sdeason under .280 since 2002. He also failed to reach double-digit homers for the first time in five years, and his 67 runs batted in were also his lowest mark since 2002. For a player who is 36 years old it’s fair to wonder just how much Young will be able to “bounce back” in 2013.

Hit: Aramis Ramirez (#5), Brett Lawrie (#12)
I list Lawrie because I believe I had him lower than any other source I saw this season (I know of a couple of websites that listed him as a top-30 overall player this season). Lawrie had a solid effort hitting .273 with 11 homers, 48 RBIs, 73 RBIs and 13 steals, but based upon most people’s expectations that effort was viewed as a monumental failire. It should not have been.

Miss: Kevin Youkilis
Michael Young wasn’t too far behind either.

By Ray Flowers

Did You Know?

The MLB playoffs are just about ready to get underway, so baseball is on the cusp of starting its “second season.” Before we get there, let’s take a look back at the just completed regular season. I’ve found a few numbers there that are certainly worth taking note of.

How many players in baseball have gone 40-100 the past two years? The answer is one. He’s also the only player who has, obviously, gone 40-100-100. He’s also the only option in the game, redundancy anyone?, who has gone 40-100-100-10 the past two years. The answer is Curtis Granderson. Sure his average dropped to .232, and his OBP fell to .319, and those numbers aren’t good in any world, but he’s as impressive a counting number performer as there has been in baseball the past two years. Granderson is a faster version of Adam Dunn, you’ll just have to learn how to work around his so-so batting average (Granderson has hit .247 the past four years, so you shouldn’t have been shocked to see his .262 batting average from last season fall).

How many pitchers in the AL won 15 games while striking out 200 batters? You’ve got your standard in Justin Verlander (17, 239), and if you thought of Verlander you most likely also also hit on Max Scherzer (16, 231) who also led baseball with a K/9 mark of 11.08 (that mark allowed Scherzer to post the 19th best single season mark in the history of baseball for a pitcher who tossed at least 162 innings). Given that he is starting the AL Wild Card today you probably also thought of Yu Darvish (16, 221) who had a very successful first season in the States even if he walked too many batters (89 in 191.1 innings). Hopefully you also remember the guy who appears to have a strong shot to win the AL Cy Young Award, the man who tied Jered Weaver for the league lead in wins (20), and that is David Price. The Rays’ lefty won 20 games, struck out 205, posted a 2.56 ERA and had a 1.10 WHIP. So here’s the question. Who is the lone pitcher in the AL to win 15 games and strike out 200 batters who I didn’t mention? The answer can be found below.

Brandon Moss had an amazing run for the A’s to close the year that included a .690 SLG over his last 26 games. When the season was over he had accrued only 265 at-bats, but boy did he use them to great effect. Moss was a tremendous weapon for the A’s as he hit .291 on the year with a .358 OBP and .596 SLG. Moss also drove in 52 runners while scoring 48 times as he had a great season for a guy who struck out nearly a third of the time. The most amazing part of his effort? Let’s look to the home run. Moss hit 21 of them in just 296 plate appearances. No player has ever hit more than 21 homers in under 300 palte appearances. The others who have hit that mark are Art Shamsky (1966), Johnny Blanchard (1961), Kevin Maas (1990) and David Ross (2006). How about that?

The most dangerous “pull” hitter in baseball in 2012 was Giancarlo Stanton, and when you read the numbers I’m about to list your eyeballs might fall out of your head. Stanton hit .507 in the 140 at-bats in which he pulled the ball. That’s 71 hits in 140 at-bats folks. His SLG mark was 1.164. His slugging was 1.164. His OPS? Get out the video game. That number was 1.671. Stanton also hit 24 homers in at-bats when he “pulled” the ball. That number didn’t lead baseball though. The leader in “pull” home runs was none other than Mr. Curtis Granderson who had 37 homers in 201 at-bats.

ANSWER: The fifth pitcher in the Junior Circuit to pull off the 15-200 trick in 2012 is a teammate of one of the other four. Still not able to narrow it down? A hint. He struck out 15 batters in his final start of the season. That man is none other than James Shields who won 15 games with 223 Ks. Shields also won 16 games with 225 Ks last season. Why not keep the good times rolling? How many hurlers in baseball have won 15 games with 220 Ks each of the past two years? The answer is two – Verlander and Shields.

By Ray Flowers

Greatness, Injuries & Hotness

Some players are hitting, some are slumping, as the season wears down. Other players are being shut down due to injury, and some of us, a rare few, are already deep into our plans for Halloween. I know what you’re thinking, and yes, I do need a girlfriend.

Adrian Beltre seems to think that it’s his mission to prove that he has been overlooked all these years. His overall numbers are first rate, he’s hitting .316 with 35 homers, 98 RBIs and 92 runs scored, not to mention a strong .915 OPS, and if that was all there was it would be enough. However, it’s his out of this world pace of late that is the even bigger story. Over his last 20 games played Beltre has gone deep 10 times, has driven in 16 runs, has scored 16 times and has an OPS of 1.121. Going back just a bit further, starting with his three homer game on August 22nd (my parent’s anniversary), he’s hit 16 homers in 29 games. No need to belabor the point – he’s just been dynamic, period.

Michael Brantley has had a solid season for the Indians for those of you who added him in AL-only leagues. He’s hit a solid .286, gone deep six times, stole 12 bags, and hit the 60 plateau in RBIs and runs scored. He’s limited by sore groin right now.

Tyler Clippard has had an amazing season relative to his draft day cost as the former setup man has stepped up to record 32 saves. Alas, his performance of late has been pretty awful as he’s racked up two loses an a blown save in his last three outings. Moreover, he’s sporting a 9.64 ERA and 1.93 WHIP in September. The result is Drew Storen is now the main closer for the Nats. Storen has pitched well with a 2.49 ERA and 1.11 WHIP including a 0.87 ERA/WHIP with 12 Ks in 10.1 innings in September. Not saying a move doesn’t make sense given how the two are pitching right now, but it’s a bit odd given that the Nationals are in first place getting ready for the playoffs. Speaking of the playoffs the Giants, who have already clinched he NL West, are 10 games up on the Dodgers.

Carlos Gonzalez may be shut down for the rest of the year with a sore hamstring. “I don’t know if I will be able to play again,” said Gonzalez. If his season is indeed over he’ll end the year hitting .300 with 20 homers and 20 steals. In fact, his performance this season is a near match for his 2011 effort. Check it.

2011: .295/.363/.526 with 26 HRs, 92 RBIs, 92 runs, 20 SBs
2012: .303/.371/.510 with 22 HRs, 85 RBIs, 89 runs, 20 SBs

Hey, I’m never about me, OK maybe sometimes I am, but with all these people telling me they are winning their leagues or in the finals, I’m left with two thoughts. (1) Like a proud papa, I’m proud of everyone and glad I could help out a bit. (2) When people say ‘I’m about to win $500 because of you!’ I think to myself – where is my share of the pie? I know, it’s always about me.

Jason Kubel hit his 30th homer Monday night, the first time he’s reached that level. It’s a surprise given that he hit only 33 homers the past two years in 242 games. Kubel has also knocked in 90 runs and scored 74 times for a very effective fantasy season for the Diamondbacks. However, his performance has fallen faster than my tolerance for stupidity as he’s hit a mere .206 with a .274 OBP in the second half of the season. He’s kept bashing the ball though with 15 homers in 57 games.

For those of you that don’t know, I’m kinda a huge Halloween fan. When you can combine Halloween and hotness in one, I’m an even bigger fan. Given that lead in, for your viewing pleasure the one and only Kate Beckinsale. Leather never looked so good for the werewolf killer.

Anyone else have the following problem? Tyler Skaggs was supposed to make two starts this week, so I picked him up in two of my leagues. The D’backs just announced that Skaggs was being shut down for the year (Josh Collmenter will take the hill). Great timing guys. Wonderful. Skaggs tossed 158.1 innings last year, so it seems odd that they shut him down this year at 151.2 innings. Can’t think he won’t be in their rotation next year, but that doesn’t mean squat to anyone right now does it?

If you have some time, some pretty interesting photos of some anomalies on the moon from Mike Bara.

Josh Willingham reached career bests last season with 29 homers and 98 RBIs in a tough place to hit – Oakland. Moving to Minnesota, another pitcher’s park, it was thought unlikely that he would improve upon those numbers. Well, he has and then some. Willingham has blasted 35 homers while knocking in 110 runs, and he’s also scored 85 times – all career-high’s. He’s also appeared in a career best 145 games, and for only the second time in his career has’ appeared in 120 or more games in back-to-back seasons (he’s gone for 136 and 145). He’s dealing with a wonky shoulder that needs an MRI, so it’s tough to tell if he will be able to offer much of anything the rest of the way.

By Ray Flowers

Fantasy Beat – With Ray Flowers

Trevor Ray and Justin Fensterman finally get their chance to talk to the man that gave them their shot….the one and only, fantasy oracle, fantasy pterodactyl, host on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (M-F, 7-10 PM EDT, Sirius210, XM87), owner of BaseballGuys.com, Ray Flowers. There’s a discussion about expectations and how it’s often wise to keep things in perspective. They also break down Mike Trout, Dan Straily, Mike Olt, Yoenis Cespedes and others as the guys interviewed the man that gave them their start.

LISTEN TO THE AUDIO.

Third Base: A Wasteland?

The assumption in 2012 is that third base is a shallow position in fantasy baseball. Over at MockDraftCentral people seem to be agreeing with that line of thought as everyone is jumping in early to roster their man at the hot corner. There are nine third baseman going in the top-85 selections, and that doesn’t include Jose Bautista who would bring that number to ten (he’s listed as an outfielder though he obviously qualifies at third base). After that group there are three other third base eligible players going in picks 85-200… a vast span of time for only three third sackers to be drafted. So what’s going on at third base? Some thoughts follow.

Last year only three third base eligible performers hit .300: Michael Young (.338), Aramis Ramirez (.306) and Jose Bautista (.302).

Last year four third base eligible performers hit 30 homers: Bautista (43), Mark Reynolds (37), Adrian Beltre (32) and Evan Longoria (31).

Last year only three third base eligible performers posted 100 runs batted in: Young (106), Beltre (105) and Bautista (103).

Last year only one third base eligible player had 90 runs scored: Bautista (105).

All told, shockingly, there were three third base eligible players who hit .270 with 20 homers, 75 RBI and 75 runs scored. Those are certainly solid numbers no doubt, but only three guys were able to hit all three benchmarks (Bautista, Beltre and Ramirez)? Clearly there is a lack of stardom at the hot corner, or is there?

In 2012 injuries limited Pablo Sandoval to 117 games, David Wright to 102, Ryan Zimmerman to 101 and Alex Rodriguez to 99.  What if all of those guys play 140 games in 2012? That would give us eight guys to count on (in addition to the three above players who hit all four benchmarks).

That group of seven doesn’t include Evan Longoria who is going in the top-15 in every draft this season. That’s gets us up to eight third sackers.

Kevin Youkilis appeared in only 120 games last year, but the pace he set, if he played 145 games, would equate to 21 homers, 97 RBI and 82 runs. That’s nine quality third baseman.

Mark Reynolds may only be a .225 type of hitter, but his power and run production is elite. The last three years he has hit 113 homers, the most at the position. He has 273 RBI, the third highest total at the position. He’s also scored 261 runs, second to Longoria (274) amongst third sackers. That’s 10 quality third basemen.

Brett Lawrie is going off the board as the 5th third baseman ahead of Arod. I may not think he deserves to go that high despite oodles of talent, but even if I were to knock him down the board substantially he’s still a guy who everyone could agree is worthy of a top-12 pick.

Though Michael Young hit only 11 homers last season he hit .338, knocked in 106 runners and scored 88 times. Pretty sure he belongs in the top-12 at the hot corner.

So that’s 12 third basemen that you can pretty easily turn to. If you’re in a 12 team league that means nearly everyone who comes to the dance will have a hottie to hold (and this discussion hasn’t even included guys like Miguel Cabrera and Hanley Ramirez who will be playing third base this year).

You want more love at third?

David Freese was the MVP of the world during the playoffs last year. For more on Freese see his Player Profile.

Ryan Roberts hit 19 homers, stole 18 bases and he scored 86 runs, the third highest total at the position.

Mike Moustakas, according to most observers, is a 25-90 bat waiting to happen.

Chase Headley has the potential to go 15/15 and score plenty of runs with his approach. OK, maybe that’s a stretch, but he still has talent (see his Player Profile).

I could go on and talk about former elite level prospects like Mat Gamel and Pedro Alvarez and why it makes sense to take a shot on both late in drafts this season, but I think the point has been made. While third base may be a little top heavy, I’d argue that unless you’re in a deep league that you should feel pretty confident that there are enough men who man the hot corner to go around.

By Ray Flowers

2011 Positional Review – Third Base

You remember back to March when I gave away all my position player rankings for free, right? For those of you who want to revisit my greatest hits, here’s where you would go to get all my rankings for hitters – 2011: BBGuys Hitter Capsules.

I’m nothing if not accountable, so I’ll review my top-10 predictions at each position as well as point out my biggest “hit” outside of the top-10 and my biggest “bust.”

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

SECOND BASE

2011 THIRD BASE Top-10

1 Evan Longoria
2 David Wright
3 Alex Rodriguez
4 Ryan Zimmerman
5 Aramis Ramirez
6 Mark Reynolds
7 Michael Young
8 Adrian Beltre
9 Pedro Alvarez
10 Casey McGehee

Longoria hit a terrible .244, and his steal total fell by 12 down to three, but he still powered 31 homers and drove in 99 runs thanks to a furious second half finish (20 homers and 57 RBI in 72 games). He’s plenty young enough (26) to put it all together and run off some massive seasons.

Wright had hit at least 25 homers with 100 RBI and 85 runs scored in five of the last six seasons, so his 14 homers, 61 RBI and 60 runs were obviously a massive disappointment. Thrown in a career worst .255 average, from a guy who has hit .300 in his career, and you were rightly ticked off if he was on your squad.

Rodriguez lost his record streak of 30-100 seasons at 13 as he appeared in only 99 games which limited him to 16 homers and 62 RBI. In the end it was the worst season of his career as he also scored a career worst 67 runs with another career worst in his OPS (.823).

Zimmerman appeared in only 101 games limiting him to a .289-12-49-52 line, but if we give him 550 at-bats at that pace he would have hit .289-17-68-72 which wouldn’t have been too awful given all his starts and stops. He needs to stay healthy.

Ramirez hit two homers in April and May. Two. He then blasted 17 the next two months, hit .377 in August, an in the end produced yet another terrific season for the Cubs (.306-26-93-80-1). The cream almost always rises to the top.

Reynolds always gets dogged for the terrible average (.221) and all the strikeouts (196), but he should get some credit to. He was second at the position with 37 homers (Jose Bautista had 43), and he was one of only four third baseman with 25 homers, 80 RBI and 80 runs scored and one of three with 30-80-80 (Bautista and Beltre).

Young only played 40 games at third, but at the dish he was his normal fantastic self. Young hit .338, the best mark of his career, and also posted a career best 106 RBI. Toss in 88 runs scored and he gave his owners exactly what they were hoping for and a little bit more.

Beltre was injured and appeared in only 124 games, but he still powered 32 homers, knocked in 105 and his a strong .296. He was everything the Rangers hoped he would be when they signed him.

Alvarez was an abject failure. He appeared in 74 games and, amazingly for a guy who was the second overall selection in 2008, he hit .191 with four homers in 235 at-bats. To think, many people chose him over Mark Reynolds.

McGehee wasn’t a choice I loved. In fact, I warned in The Guide that he was the only third sacker who had 85 RBI who failed to score 75 runs in 2010, and I also pointed out how his minor league track record didn’t match his offensive fireworks with the Brewers. I should have gone with my gut and ranked Pablo Sandoval, who I had 11th, ahead of McGehee.

Hit: Jhonny Peralta #14
Obviously he was more useful as a shortstop eligible player, but with all the injuries at third Peralta could have played there all year and done very well. Peralta hit 21 homers, knocked in 86 runs, scored 68 times and hit a career best .299. All-around it was a fine year, and in context of all the injuries at third, it was a top-10 effort.

Bust: Everyone
DL stints seemed a prerequisite at third this year. Here are the games played totals of some of the preseason elite: Longoria (133), Wright (102), Arod (99), Zimmerman (101) and Sandoval (117).

By Ray Flowers