The Curious Case of Adrian Beltre

Let me see if I have this right Adrian Beltre.

Your contract for next season is a player option for $5 million dollars. That option moves to $10 million dollars if he picked up 640 plate appearances this season – a total you hadn’t reached since the 2006 season. On Thursday you picked up plate appearance 640 triggering the clause. On Friday, you told the team you were going to miss the last three games of the season to be with your pregnant wife who has just gone into labor.

Coincidence?

I love a good conspiracy as much as the next fella – you should see the 50+ JFK books in my library – but I’m not going to start something here other than to say I find it highly coincidental that the day after his contract option doubled Beltre decided to end his season. In truth, it matters little anyway since he is nearly certain to turn down the 1-year extension in his hope of landing one last, huge, big money deal. Does he deserve a big deal? Let’s examine his career track record before we render our judgment.

(1) Beltre will be 32 years old in April of next season. Based upon current training methods, it is reasonable to expect that he could be a useful everyday player for another 4-5 years. That would seem to indicate that he could be in line for a nice deal.

(2) Beltre is a good player, much better than he is often given credit for. He is an excellent defensive third basemen, always has been, but the quickness you need to play third base at a high level often starts to dissipate right about the age that Beltre currently is.

(3) While a strong hitter with a good track record, there is a major concern with Beltre. The two best seasons of his career, the only two that can legitimately be labeled as difference making seasons, just so happened to occur the two years he was heading into free agency. In 2004 he had arguably the greatest hitting season by a third baseman in history as he hit .334 with 48 homers, 121 RBI, 104 runs scored, 200 hits and a 1.017 OPS. This season he hit .321-28-102-84 with 189 hits an a .919 OPS.

Not once, other than those two seasons just referenced, has he ever had 100 RBI.

Not once, other than those two seasons, has he ever had 170 hits a season.

Not once, other than those two seasons, has he ever hit over .290.

Not once, other than those two seasons, has he ever posted an OPS over .850.

You’re starting to get the point right?

(4) Still, I don’t want to short Beltre who is good, just not great, hitter. From 2002 through 2010, each of the eight seasons that he had at least 500 at-bats he hit 19 homers with 75 RBI (he missed out in 2009 when he had eight homers and 44 RBI in 449 ABs). Again not great numbers, but at the same time he is the only third baseman in baseball who has pulled off the 19-75 double in eight of the past nine seasons.

In the end, just hope that your favorite team doesn’t open up the vault to sign a player who is nearing the decline phase of his career. Beltre should be a very productive player for the next handful of seasons, but do yourself a favor and look for a series of 20 homer, 80 RBI efforts or you are going to be left feeling like you got stuck with the dinner tab like Dez Bryant just did by his Cowboys’ teammates.

History and 3B for 2011

I got a hankering to write about third sackers today, so I’m gonna lead off the piece today with that before moving on to two players whose place in history is already secure. Will those two “old timers” hang them up after the 2010 season, or will they continue to hang around?

Aramis Ramirez just can’t stay healthy, and his most recent visits to the doctor’s office is for a strained quadriceps muscle. At the same time the guy has been nails since the All-Star game hitting .295 with an .899 OPS. He’s also gone deep 12 times while knocking in 41 runs in just 45 games – that’s roughly a pace for 45 homers and 150 RBI. That recent run of excellence has upped his year marks to 22 homers and 73 RBI in just 403 at-bats on the season. By the way, Ramirez has the same homer total as Alex Rodriguez and one more than Evan Longoria, while only one third basemen in the game has more RBI in fewer at-bats this season (Scott Rolen has 78 RBI in 408 at-bats). I’m still going to have Aramis Ramirez in my top-10 third basemen next season, in fact, I’ll likely have him much higher than that. Since I brought it up, here are my thoughts on who my top-10 are at third base for the 2011 season (if you want to see how the supremely intelligent Ted Carlson ranked the top-10 third basemen for next season you can give his piece a read his his Five Tool Blog). Here is my list.

1- David Wright

2- Evan Longoria

3- Alex Rodriguez

4- Ryan Zimmerman

5- Aramis Ramirez

6- Mark Reynolds

7- Pablo Sandoval

8- Michael Young

9- Adrian Beltre

10- Jose Bautista

I want to puke at listing Bautista at #10, but there will be many who will likely put him even higher. Putting Pablo ahead of Young is a bit risky, but I’m going with the youngster and the upside potential over Mr. Reliable from Texas. I hesitate to list Reynolds 6th given that he is batting a rancid .211, but he is still second at the position with 32 bombs, has knocked in 83 runs, has stolen seven bases and scored 74 runs.

Ivan Rodriguez hit an impressive .296 over the first 60 games of the season, but he has regressed substantially since the All-Star break with a .229 mark. On the year he is batting .270 which is certainly passable for a catcher, but his OBP is a sickly .292 which looks slightly better when you compare it to his mere .348 SLG. I-Rod is 193 hits short of becoming the first catcher to ever produce 3,000 hits, but does he have enough left to play two more season to get there?

Trevor Hoffman picked up his 600th save the other night in a truly remarkable display of longevity and effectiveness. Mariano Rivera has 555 career saves, but the next highest hurler who is currently in the big leagues is Billy Wagner (417) who has already stated, emphatically, that this will be his last season. This begs the question – who will be the next member of the 500 save club? The answer might be nobody, especially since the next active hurler is Francisco Cordero with 285 saves.

Back to Hoffman for a moment. He does have a 6.09 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP on the season, numbers that are completely out of place for the HOF bound hurler signaling that his career is at an end. However, if you look beneath the surface you will realize that over his last 29 games that he has posted a 2.63 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP. He’s no longer a viable 9th inning option, but that doesn’t mean he couldn’t help someone’s bullpen in a setup role in 2011 if he wished to continue his illustrious career.

By Ray Flowers

Three in One

Today I will discuss the signing of the biggest bat on the free agent mark, a minor deal for two spare parts, and a player re-upping with his squad after a fine all-around season in 2009.

Holliday Remains with Cardinals
How does he do it? Super agent Scott Boras got the Cardinals to bid against themselves, and the result was a 7-year, $120 million deal for Matt Holliday. The deal is for $17 million a year – slightly better than the $16.5 million Jason Bay’s deal with the Mets is for – and it includes a full no-trade clause. I hate Boras, but I tell you this; if I was a player he would certainly be my agent. I guess the Cardinals determined they could afford to dump more than $40 million a year on Holliday and Albert Pujols to strike fear into opponents from the center of their lineup (Pujols’ contract is coming up), but we’ll have to see if it hampers their ability to construct a team around their dynamic duo. One last note. If Holliday finishes in the top-10 in NL MVP voting in the 7th year of the deal an option for $17 million kicks in for an eighth season. Hopefully the fans in St. Louis can forgive him for trying to use his cup as a glove in the playoffs against the Dodgers. To spare Mr. Holliday I will not post a link to the failed catch, though it certainly isn’t hard to find online. For more on the Holliday signing click on the link to Holliday Signs with Cardinals.

Kotchman Traded for Hall
A deal that will reverberate for the next, oh, two days, was completed on Tuesday as the Mariners sent Bill Hall to the Red Sox in exchange for Casey Kotchman. Here is the upside of the deal which, surprisingly, has some extended ramifications.

1- Kotchman, a slick fielder, should make about $5 million in arbitration this year. His addition to the Mariners signals that slugger Russell Branyan won’t be returning to the Pacific Northwest. Kotchman hit .268 with seven homers and 48 RBI last season for the Braves and Red Sox in 385 at-bats. He is a doubles hitter who could push .300 if things broke right, but he doesn’t have the bat of your traditional first baseman.

2- Even with the move of Kotchman out of town, the Red Sox still don’t seem to have any plans for Mike Lowell. The Sox, who acquired Adrian Beltre earlier in the week, you can see me break down that signing in Beltre to Join Red Sox, will go with Beltre at third, Kevin Youkilis at first and David Ortiz at DH. Look for Lowell to be dealt at some point once spring training begins (you can keep up on the latest news at the Baseball Guy’s Twitter Page ).

3- As for Hall… some of us will fondly remember his massive 2006 season (.270-35-85-101-8), but since that time he has regressed, and substantially, the past couple of seasons. Last year he hit a mere .201 with eight homers in 334 at-bats for the Brewers and the Mariners, and that .596 OPS was simply ghastly. Hall is versatile, he can play second, third and the outfield, but he must be on the bench when there is a righty on the on the hill (.186/.261/.328 in 204 at-bats last season). He is a fine 25th man for a club like the Red Sox, just don’t expect him to become fantasy relevant with this move.

Gutierrez Signs 4-Year Deal with Mariners
Franklin Gutierrez parlayed a fine 2008 season into a 4-year, $20.5 million deal with the Mariners. You might be thinking to yourself something akin to ‘really, they gave that guy $20 mil? Where’s my glove?’ but the truth is that Gutierrez is better than you probably think. He finished near the top of many defensive metrics last season flashing great skill on defense, and though he hit a mere .283-18-70-85-16 last season, the totality of those numbers are actually very impressive. Here is a quote lifted directly from my Breaking Down: Franklin Gutierrez piece from October 27th, 2009. “In 2009, Franklin Gutierrez was one of only nine men who managed to hit at least .280 with 18 homers, 70 RBI, 85 runs and 15 steals, and one of just four full-time outfielders to pull off the trick.” Like I said, better than you thought right?

By Ray Flowers

Beltre to Join Red Sox

Adrian Beltre will sign a 2-year deal with the Red Sox for somewhere between $14-$20 mil. Mike Lowell no longer in the mix. Matt Holliday on verge of nearly $100 mil. deal with the Cardinals. Jason Bay passes physical, will join Mets.

By Ray Flowers

Is McGriff Hall Worthy?

In yesterday’s column I championed Tim Raines for inclusion in the Hall of Fame in HOF: Tim Raines. Today, I’ll take a look at a player who in no way resembled the fleet of foot Raines, but that doesn’t mean that Fred McGriff doesn’t deserve some serious consideration for addition to the hallowed halls of the shrine in Cooperstown.

Consistency vs. Greatness

Yes he played in the era of the lively ball, expansion, and steroids, but Mr. McGriff was never even remotely attached to the muscle bounds freaks that dominated his era. Despite this fact, McGriff still posted some pretty special numbers over the years, though as you might gather from the title of this section, he never really took his game to the level of greatness. Here is what I mean.

* McGriff hit 493 homers in his career, good enough for a 26th place all-time tie with the incomparable Lou Gehrig.

* McGriff finished in the top-5 in his league in home runs seven times pacing his league twice (1989 and 1992).

* From 1988-1994 he hit at least 31 homers each season, and 10 times in his career he hit at least 30 bombs.

* Eight times he knocked in at least 100 runs, and four other times he was in the 90′s.

* Overall he knocked in 1,550 runs, the 41st best mark ever.

* McGriff finished with 958 extra base hits in his career, good enough for 42nd all-time (his 441 doubles rank 99th).

* McGriff produced a Runs Created mark of 1,704 – good for 45th all-time.

That’s a pretty darn impressive run of effectiveness. At the same time there is some downside as well.

First off, McGriff hit “only” .284 in his career with four season of at least .300. Solid numbers to be sure, but far from outstanding.

Second, though he hit all those homers he never reached 40 homers in a season. Heck, even a guy like Adrian Beltre did that once.

Third, despite all the RBI, he never once reached even 110 RBI in a season.

Fourth, never fleet of foot, McGriff scored 100 runs only twice and he never swiped more than eight bags in a season.

Fifth, and this is where the argument against McGriff is most acute, the man was named to only five All-Star teams. There were certainly a virtual pantheon of terrific first baseman chosen instead of McGriff through the years, but the fact of the matter is that McGriff was rarely, if ever, considered to be the best first baseman in his league. Moreover, McGriff had only one top-5 finish in the MVP voting (he was fourth in 1993).

A man that McGriff is often compared to is Willie McCovey because both men swung left-handed and played first base. How do McGriff’s career numbers stack up against the Giants’ great? Quite well actually.

McGriff: .284-493-1,550-1,349-72 with a .886 OPS
McCovey: .270-521-1,555-1,229-26 with a .889 OPS

Based solely on numbers, there is little difference between the two. Of course this leaves aside the real test which is comparing a players’ numbers to those men that played in the same era against the same level of competition. Without getting into an overly technical comparison in that respect, let me spell it out for you very clearly. McCovey was more highly thought of than McGriff during his career, not to mention that he produced his numbers in an era when pitchers had a much higher degree of success than they did during the majority of McGriff’s career.

Those people that voted for Jim Rice will also likely vote for McGriff. It’s not that it would be a horrible inclusion to the Hall, after all his totals in a myriad of categories do place him in a position to be considered one of the best, it’s just that for those of us who watched McGriff, did any of us ever think we were in the presence of greatness when we saw him sock a homer? As a voter the decision has to be made – do you reward consistency in which case McGriff is a lock, or do you sit back and say that the Hall of Fame is a place for greatness, and by that standard Fred McGriff can knock on the door though no one will ever answer.

By Ray Flowers

More of the Same

Today is more of the same, and by that I mean I’m going to break down a handful of the players whose names are in the news as free agents looking to strike it rich.

The Braves need to move salary, and their goal is to move Derek Lowe and the 3-years, and $45 million left on his deal. As you might expect, they haven’t found any takers on the contract so they are apparently considering moving Javier Vazquez and his $11.5 million deal, potentially to the Angels. This would be a bad baseball move for the Braves. Sure Vazquez is coming off a career best season of a 2.87 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP and 238 Ks, but he was their best pitcher last year and is about as consistent an arm as you could ever hope to find once you leave the ranks of the superstars. The move might make financial sense, especially since the Braves appear highly unlikely to sign him to an extension when his deal runs out at the end of the 2010 season, but on the field, not so much. As for Lowe, here is what he said when asked by the media about the Braves apparent desire to move him after his worst season since 2004 (4.67 ERA, 1.52 WHIP). “I don’t think it’s a matter of if anymore. It’s just a matter of when… “Nobody made them give me a four-year, $60 million contract. There wasn’t a ransom or anybody holding a gun to their heads… I would have never even considered going there if I knew that ultimately this was going to happen.” I don’t know if I believe that, we are taking about $60 million, but Lowe certainly has a point. If the Braves were going to bail on him if he had a rough couple of months, why did they bother signing him in the first place?

Some other rumors —

Looks like Nick Johnson will be headed to the Yankees. The latest report says that he is on the verge of signing a one year deal for about $5.5 million. As I wrote on BaseballGuys’ Twitter page today – “Yankees want a DH that can play the field, show athleticism. Of course, my first thoughts go to Nick Johnson.” It’s a bit of an odd signing and one that might signal that Johnny Damon will be in a new uni in 2010.

After apparently losing out on Johnson, the Giants are still in need of a corner infield bat. A name that continues to be linked to them, more because of need than because of the probability of a deal actually being struck, is Adrian Beltre. Though his stick failed last season (.265-8-44), Beltre can still hit .270 with 20 homers, and he plays a fine third base. Problem is he wants something like 4-years and $40 million, and though I have no inside knowledge of the Giants front office, I can’t think they would get within $10 million of that figure.

The Cardinals likely won’t be able to bring back utility man Mark DeRosa. Seems like the player, and his agent, have grown a bit weary of waiting for the Cardinals to decide what they are going to do with Matt Holliday. In an odd twist, the Cardinals appear to be tiring of the delay with Holliday who continues to dry to squeeze them for more dough. Is it possible that they could end up with neither player in 2010? Looks possible at this point. Could DeRosa end up with the Giants? Certainly could happen if they are willing to give him the $30 million I suggested as a potential figure with Beltre.

Ricky Nolasco signed a 1-year, $3.8 million deal to remain with the Marlins. This is a good singing for a guy who was really unlucky last season (.336 BABIP despite a 9.49 K/9 mark and a 4.43 K/BB rate). Now the club will turn its sights to Josh Johnson who wants something like $42 million, basically double the $23 million that the Fish have reportedly offered. That’s a pretty wide gulf to cross.

By Ray Flowers

Free Agency – A Look Ahead

With the season nearing it’s conclusion, at least from a fantasy perspective, I thought I would look forward to the 2010 season, something that Mike Sheets in Under the Tag, and Ted Carlson in Five Tool Blog have started to do. I’ll take a bit of a different take not listing my top-10′s or top-30 overall but instead I’ll hit on a some of the free agents out there that could be plying their trade for a new team come next season.

Carlos Delgado: Looks like his ’09 season might end with a mere 94 at-bats on the back of his ball card do to that right hip surgery. He hit 38 homers with 115 RBI last season but he will be 38 next year and hit just 24 home runs while batting .258 in 2007. He’ll have to sign an incentive laden deal, perhaps to DH.

Adam LaRoche: Again one of the hottest hitters in the game in the second half (.314-9-24 with a .919 OPS in 44 games). Maybe he should start training really hard in January so that he could hit like this in the first half. No reason the Braves don’t bring him back.

Placido Polanco: Anyone out there looking for the prototypical #2 hitter? His average has slipped this season (.277 versus a career .303 mark), but he is on the cusp of a career-high in RBI (just four short with 63) while producing another excellent contact rate (0.93 do to only 35 strikeouts on the year). This is likely as good as it gets at this point, but that isn’t all that bad is it?

Miguel Tejada: A huge question mark this coming offseason. Is Tejada the man who hit .329 with a .830 OPS in the first half of the aging/slowing veteran who has hit just .255 with a .645 OPS since the All-Star break? Might end up at third base wherever he signs.

Adrian Beltre: Wear a cup Adrian. That’s all I have to say.

Chone Figgins: Not the prototypical corner infielder since he has an almost total lack of pop. Still, don’t know of many teams that would turn away a .300 hitting, 40 steal, 100 run option at the top of their lineup.

Melvin Mora: Trying to prove that he still has some game left in that soon to be 38 year old body of his. After a pathetic first half (.259/.326/.335) he has been pretty solid the past two weeks (.405-3-7 in 11 games).

Jason Bay: The Sox won’t let him go, not after another big-time offensive season (.261-31-98-87-12 in just 456 ABs).

Johnny Damon: Will he remain with the Yankees? Since he scores 90 runs every year and will be coming off the best power season of his career he will likely get one more major dollar deal. Still, he is likely best suited for DH at this stage of his career. My brother’s 16 month old daughter almost throws as well.

Matt Holliday: A Scott Boras client, Holliday has hit like Stan Musial since joining the Birds (.378-11-39-31 with a 1.125 OPS in 156 ABs). Don’t know the last time you checked, but in case you hadn’t heard, Boras is the biggest pain in the a – - in the universe, that is if you are a team trying to sign a player. Boras/Holliday won’t be giving the Red Birds a discount, and Boras will get his man the money he “deserves” on the market. Still, the Cardinals simply can’t let him go can they?

Jermaine Dye: Five straight years of at least 25 homers and 75 RBI (once he knocks in three more runs this year), Dye is as consistent a run producing right fielder as there is in the game. He will be 36 in June but he should still have a few productive years left despite his profound struggles of late (.184 in his last 185 ABs).

Vlad Guerrero: Injured to start the year Vlad has been, well Vlad, hitting .298 with a .904 OPS since the All-Star break. He may be limited to DH duties the rest of his career but the man can still hit .300 with 25 home runs if healthy.

Aubrey Huff: Hasn’t lived up to last season’s huge effort (.304-32-108-96) and has looked lost at the plate of late (he has hit just .215 over his last 44 games and .210 since the start of August). He’ll be hard pressed to sign a deal that exceeds a couple of years at anything remotely approaching his current level of pay ($8 million).

By Ray Flowers

A Wacky Friday

Today is an odd day. We have a story that, honestly, I couldn’t make up because it is so odd. I also want to touch on a city who I no longer have respect for, and it shouldn’t be too hard to figure out which one I’m referring to either. I’ll also touch on a ball player who reached a milestone, highlight a waiver-wire deal, and discuss a guy who went on the DL after a week of saying he didn’t need to go on the DL. But really, this entry is more about those first two stories than anything else.

Bizarre story of the day: Adrian Beltre had to be placed on the DL due to an injury that he suffered in the most unwelcomed of places – and no I don’t mean his wallet. Beltre took a baseball of his, er, well, I don’t want to write what you all want me to write so I will be mature and say his testicle. Lucky for him he will not need surgery, but the larger question is, how can a man who plays third base in professional baseball not wear a protective cup? I wore a cup, literally, from my first season of organized baseball when I was seven years old, and I gotta tell you, it saved my life – twice – including one time where I swore that I not only would never have kids but that I would be unable ever to urinate for myself ever again. Thank goodness my parents made me where a cup when I was a kid. It was never comfortable, and on those hot days it would certainly work up quite the rash on the old inner thighs, but that is a hell of a lot better than the alternative as Mr. Beltre is now experiencing. Let’s see how stupid he is when he returns from the injury — will he be sans cup or will this brush with danger change his mind?

Reason 8,764 why you cannot trust teams when it comes to reporting on the health of their players. Nelson Cruz was placed on the DL today, retroactive to August 4th, with that sore ankle of his. The Rangers have said all along that he wouldn’t be placed on the DL and that he was day-to-day. Uh huh. At least they did activate Ian Kinsler as planned.

The Red Sox added Alex Gonzalez to help them out at shortstop with his solid glove work in exchange for Kristopher Negron in a waiver-wire deal. Apparently the Sox didn’t notice that Gonzalez is hitting all of .210 with three home runs in 243 ABs this season. Hell, Nick Green was hitting .233 with six home runs in 257 ABs. This signing pretty much assures us that Jed Lowrie won’t be a factor the rest of the way, even when his wrist heals enough for him to be activated from the DL.

It’s still early on this Friday with a whole host of games yet to be played, but I find it hard to believe that anyone at the dish will have a better outing and Derrek Lee who had three hits, including two doubles, on his way to knocking in seven runs before he was removed in the Cubs’17-3 route over the Pirates. Lee is now hitting .290 with 23 home runs and 81 RBI. Other than his injury filled 2006 campaign (175 ABs), Lee has socked at least 20 homers with 80 or more RBI in his last seven healthy seasons. For those of you keeping track, there are only two first baseman in the game that can match that run of seven of eight season since 2002 with 20/80 and they are Carlos Delgado and Mark Teixeira. Why no mention of the almighty, Albert Pujols? Don’t forget he started his big league career playing the outfield and third base.

Oh, and before I go… do I have this right?

The city of Philadelphia, the city of brotherly love, apparently doesn’t have one iota of compassion for our brethren on this planet, i.e. animals. How can I make that claim? Name another city in the country where a convicted dog murderer and a man who believes that cock fighting is perfectly fine are set to be parts of two professional teams. The Eagles signed Mike Vick to help aid the team in their quest for a Super Bowl victory while the Phillies signed Pedro Martinez to help their quest to return to the World Series. I’m all for teams trying to improve themselves, but at the same time, sometimes enough is enough. I’m not saying that people don’t deserve second chances in life, but at the same time Philly, when you are mercilessly protested by groups like P.E.T.A (People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals) you have no one to blame but yourselves. Really, could you have done a better of job putting a bull’s-eye on your backs?

By Ray Flowers