Draft Day Challenge, April 9

Daily baseball is all the rage in the fantasy sports world, so I will be covering the game a couple of times a week here at BaseballGuys.com. To that end, I’ve partnered with DraftDay.com to give all my wonderful followers, that’s you, the chance to play the game on a daily basis. On Tuesday and Thursday’s here at the site, I’ll also be giving you some insight into the mind of The Oracle as I will give you some of my best plays for the day – even if I’m willing to admit that daily games are a bit of a crap shoot given the difficulty in predicting how a handful of at-bats will work out. With that, here are some of the better plays for Tuesday, April 9th.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

CATCHERS
1. John Buck
2. Wilin Rosario

Not only does Buck have three homers and 12 RBIs in just seven games (the most RBIs in Mets history over the first seven games of the season), but he’s facing Cliff Lee, a pitcher who he has hit .292 with three homers against in 48 at-bats.

The Rockies’ backstop is hitting .350 with three homers on the year, and Rosario also has four hits, including a home run, in nine at-bats against Tim Lincecum.

FIRST BASE
1. Todd Helton
2. Adrian Gonzalez

Helton is broken down, old, and generally ineffective. However, he’s always risen to the occasion against Tim Lincecum who he is hitting .359 with a .479 OBP against across 39 at-bats.

I don’t know how this is possible, but in eight at-bats against Clayton Richard A-Gone has only gone back to the dugout once without reaching base. That’s right, he’s got seven hits in eight at-bats (.875 with all the hits being singles). He’s not playing, but Hanley Ramirez has been even better with nine hits in 10 at-bats against Richard.

SECOND BASE
1. Chase Utley
2. Donovan Solano

Utley is only 2-for-8 against Dillon Gee, but he’s hit .301 with a .918 OPS at home in his career and he’s also managed a .297 average and .888 OPS against righties in his career.

Solano has six hits in his last five games and is batting .292 on the young season. He’s also produced four hits, including two homers, in seven at-bats against Kris Medlen.

THIRD BASE
1. Juan Uribe
2. Chris Johnson

Uribe flat out kills it against Clayton Richard as he’s hit .385 with a 1.159 OPS, including two homers, against the lefty in 26 at-bats.

Johnson is only 1-for-3 against Wade LeBlanc in his career, but he had three hits Monday and his career numbers against lefties say he would produce about 78 RBIs over 550 at-bats.

SHORTSTOP
1. Jed Lowrie
2. Ruben Tejada

Tejada has a hit in three of his last four games, and on the year he has five walks versus four strikeouts. He’s also had a bunch of success against Cliff Lee with six hits in 13 at-bats (.462).

According to ESPN, Lowrie hasn’t sung and missed the last five games covering a total of 31 swings. He’s also produced nine line drives in the 19 balls he’s put into play.

OUTFIELD
1. Jon Jay
2. Jeff Francoeur

Jay is hitting .242 on the young season, but he’s a career .299 hitter who is about to face Bronson Arroyo, a hurler who he has 10 hits in 25 at-bats against (.400).

Francoeur has hit .316 in 19 at-bats against Mike Pelfrey. Frenchie has also been mildly effective at Kauffman Stadium in his career hitting .271 with 17 homers and 67 RBIs over 569 at-bats.

STARTING PITCHERS
1. Wily Peralta vs. Cubs
2. Kris Medlen vs. Marlins
3. Andy Pettitte vs. Indians
4. Brandon Maurer vs. Astros

Peralta faces the Cubs, and the Cubbies are hitting .186. One-eighty-six, with an OPS of 540 folks. Last season Tim Hudson, he’s a pitcher in case you forgot (though he used to DH in college), hit .218 with a .523 OPS. Just saying.

Medlen isn’t facing the Astros, more on that below, but he is facing an terrible Marlins club that is hitting .228 with a .295 OBP and .298 SLG. They’ve also only gone deep two times while scoring 14 runs in seven games.

Pettitte has a 2.70 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in his last 13 starts. In his last six starts against the team from Cleveland he’s also posted a 2.86 ERA.

Maurer looked pretty bad in his first outing as he allowed six runs in six innings, but at this point, how do you not consider any hurler against the Astros? The club from Houston is hitting .201 with a .234 OBP and .275 SLG. Honestly, you can’t be a professional club and do any worse.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

By Ray Flowers

Mock Draft: Talking Pitching Early

In fantasy baseball circles I’m known as the ‘anti-pitcher’ guy. I tell people all the time that in re-draft leagues there is no reason to take a pitcher at the top of a draft, and I practice what I preach (see how my staff turned out in the recent FSTA Experts Draft where I waited until the 8th round to take my first hurler). I know though that many others disagree with that line of thought. So for the sake of thoroughness and seeing both sides of the coin, I decided to flip my traditional script on its ear and go pitching early in a draft. Not only did I go pitching early, I went bonkers with pitching early.

I was invited by Cory Schwartz of MLB.com to participate in a 15 team mixed league (23 rounds with 14 hitters and nine pitchers, but no bench). I drew the 13th pick in the draft and thought, what the hell, I’m taking a hurler in the first round to see how my team would turn out since I know so many of you are drafting hurlers in the first round. I took Clayton Kershaw. When my second turn came up, pick #18 overall, guess which dominating righty was still available? If you said Justin Verlander you are correct. If you said that I did the unthinkable and took Verlander as well… you’d be right again. Not only did I blow past my ‘never take a pitcher in the first round’ strategy, I multiplied the pitching love by grabbing the top two arms in the game with my first two selections. How did my team turn out? Let’s take a look.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

C: Matt Wieters (6th round), John Jaso (17)
1B: Adrian Gonzalez (4)
2B: Marco Scutaro (20)
3B: Pablo Sandoval (5)
SS: Alcides Escobar (11)
MI: Josh Rutledge (12)
CI: Adam LaRoche (14)
OF: Jay Bruce (3), Nelson Cruz (7), Carl Crawford (8), Shane Victorino (9), Nick Markakis (10)
UT: Brett Gardner (16)

STARTING PITCHERS: Clayton Kershaw (1), Justin Verlander (2), Tim Hudson (15), James McDonald (18), Wandy Rodriguez (19)

RELIEF PITCHERS: Jason Grilli (13), Sean Marshall (21), David Robertson (22), Bobby Parnell (23)

I certainly went as big as one could in the first two rounds on the hill, but then I didn’t take another arm until the 13th round, and my third starter didn’t come until the 15th (I would bet many who do go big early on pitching then sit back and wait to fill out their staff with the thought being that they got a stud or two early so now they can afford to wait). This was only a 23 round draft, there were no bench rounds, so you can be assured that at least two, possibly three, of my bench spots would have been devoted to starting pitchers to round out the group. Still, with the two best arms in baseball at the top, a strong ratio guy (Hudson), a potential 180 K guy (McDonald), and a cheap/solid arm (Wandy), I like this group given the constraints I was working under.

I also love my bullpen arms. You might be saying to yourself ‘but Ray you only have one closer,’ and that’s fair, but look at those four arms. That quartet of relievers should be good for 10 strikeouts per nine innings. They are also likely to flat out kill it in ERA and WHIP. In fact, that foursome could very easily dust both Kershaw and Verlander in ERA, WHIP, K/9… and they have the chance to pick up a few saves as well. Basically, if everything goes according to plan, I’ll win Ks, ERA and WHIP. Wins, should be solid enough, and with an injury or poor performance here or there I could get some lucky saves love as well. Remember, only 23 round in this draft, so there would be plenty of time to add more depth to a unit that is filled with power arms in the reserve rounds.

So the staff is impressive. What about the offense, is it offensive like stinky cheese?

My duo at catcher is strong. In a 15 team league to get a duo that is capable of doing the things of Wieters and Jason – gotta like that.

A-Gone is about as good a bet to go .300 with 100 RBIs as any first baseman in baseball not named Pujols or Votto. Sandoval is a potential .300-25 guy at the other corner if he can avoid that third helping of plantains at dinner (his career bests would leave him with a .330-25-90 line). Up the middle I’ve got solid but boring Scutaro. He’s not likely to blow blast past .300 this year (see his Player Profile). Escobar is a solid add for the speed, but there are some questions about his overall game (see his Player Profile). At corner infield LaRoche is boring but does he ever put up numbers in the counting categories. Rutledge doesn’t have a big league season under his belt, but there’s 15/15 potential there.

The outfield is solid. I’ve got Bruce and Cruz for some pop, and then went all-around game with Crawford and Victorino. Questions abound about what Crawford has left to give, and if Victorino can hang on for another season (see his Player Profile), but if they are both healthy there no disputing that the results could potential lead to a bounty of offense. Markakis isn’t a big name, but since most of the big names went off the board while I was grabbing my two arms, he was a strong fallback play for my squad. Ditto on Gardner who people forget averaged 48 steals and 92 runs scored in 2010-11.

So to wrap it up. The offense has solid speed (Gardner, Escobar, Victorino and Crawford). There’s some decent pop but nothing over the top. I had to take chances on talent that was coming back from injury as the depressed value allowed the fellas to be available for me to roster well later than they would be if they were coming off a healthy 2012 (Sandoval, Crawford, Markakis, Gardner). If that foursome of players all play 150 games then this offense will be pretty decent for a 15 team league.

Is it a perfect team? No sir. Is it a solid enough team that I could compete with it? I think the answer is yes. However, there are certain health risks on offense, and how those players perform in 2013 will likely determine how this team will ultimately finish after I spent my top two picks on the best lefty-righty duo anyone in the fantasy game could put together in 2013..

For the full results click on the link to MLB.com Draft.

MLB.com_SlowDraft-RESULTS

Don’t forget to get your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Positional Eligibility Matters

The Tigers announced, through GM Dave Dombrowski, that Victor Martinez will not catch in 2013 as the Tigers plan to let Alex Avila and Brayan Pena handle the tools of ignorance. This decision has a whole bunch of fantasy implications that need to be investigated an understood, so I will use V-Mart as my primary discussion point on positional eligibility before listing a whole series of other players who may or may not be worth an extra bit of emphasis on draft day because of the positions on the field that they are, or aren’t, qualified for in the fantasy game.

(1) If V-Mart doesn’t catch in 2013 and only suits up at DH what does that do to his positional eligibility in your fantasy league? Usually we just look back to the previous season and see if the guy played 20 games at a position. If he did, then we just lock him into eligibility for that position. However, Victor didn’t play a single game last year after he injured his knee (he tore his ACL and had surgery. Current reports suggest that he should be good to go for Opening Day). Does that mean he will only be DH eligible in 2013, or does your league do what I think is the correct thing to do which is to look back at the last season the player actually appeared in the big leagues? If we take that tact and look back at 2011 we find that Martinez did appear in 26 games as a catcher and therefore should be catcher eligible in 2013. This is a vital question to answer – where does Martinez qualify in 2013? As a catching option Martinez is a potentially elite play. As a DH only player he’s merely a solid option. Huge difference in value as a result of where he qualifies.

(2) If he really isn’t going to catch, what happens in interleague play when the Tigers face an NL club? Obviously he isn’t going to play first base with Prince Fielder there. Does that mean when the Tigers are forced to play an “NL game” that Victor will merely be limited to pinch hitting duties? Does that negate the potential benefits he should derive from being a full-time DH since he won’t be able to start for stretches of time? Also, how will he respond to being out of the starting lineup for days at a time when the Tigers face those NL clubs? A few points to consider when it comes to evaluating the expected levels of production that one should expect from Martinez in 2013. Obviously, there’s a lot to think about with a guy like V-Mart beyond what should one be expecting from his bat (I would assume that he will return as a very impressive hitter, though what exactly that means is a tad uncertain. I’d be looking at his 2010 effort as my baseline, and in that season he hit .302 with 20 homers and 79 RBIs. Don’t forget that the 34 year old sat out an entire season last year, and that is significant even if many will try to minimize its importance).

Here are some other key players to think about in terms of how their positional eligibility effects their value. Remember, the standard for most leagues is 20 games played at a position the previous year.

Mike Aviles is only shortstop eligible after appearing in two games at second and one at third.

Jose Bautista will only qualify as an outfielder in 2013 after appearing in only one game at third and four at first in 2012.

Brandon Belt appeared in only four games in the outfield losing eligibility there.

Emilio Bonifacio plays all over the place and he should do the same thing for the Blue Jays in 2013. Here are his games played totals from last season: outfield (51 games), second base (15 games). So much for his second, third and shortstop eligibility from ’11.

Billy Butler appeared in only 11 games at first base in 2011 causing him to be DH only eligible in 2012. He rectified that situation by appearing in 20 games at first in 2012.

Chris Davis lost third base from his ledger (zero games), but he is still eligible at first and the outfield.

Edwin Encarnacion is only first base eligible in 2013. He suited up just one time at third base last season.

Adrian Gonzalez fell just short of qualifying in the outfield with 18 games in right field.

Mike Morse appeared in only one game at first base.

Trevor Plouffe has a nice power bat but he qualifies only at third base (95 games) heading into the season. He should be a starter in the outfield for the Twins in 2013, but he appeared in only 17 games in the outfield, four at second and one at short last season.

Martin Prado appeared in 119 games in the outfield, 25 at third, 13 at shortstop, 10 at second and four at first base.

Hanley Ramirez appeared 98 times at third and 57 times at shortstop. Don’t forget that also means that he is eligible to fill the middle and corner infield spots.

Mark Reynolds appeared in 108 games at first but only 15 at third base.

Kyle Seager qualifies at third base (138 games) but not at second (18 games, 14 starts).

Mark Trumbo may or may not qualify as a first baseman for you. He appeared in 21 games at first base last season but only 16 as a starter. Does your league use starts or appearances as the benchmark? Make sure you check it out.

Michael Young appeared in 41 games at first and 25 games at third base. He was only a second sacker 16 times.

Ben Zobrist is a money play in 2013. Not only does he produced impressive numbers at the dish, but he also qualifies at second (58 games), outfield (71 games) and, here’s the kicker, shortstop (47 games). That ability to fill three roster spots is golden and certainly bumps up his value substantially, especially in deeper leagues.

By Ray Flowers

Winners and Losers

  The 2012 season was quite the year. We saw a Triple Crown winner, Oakland stun the Rangers, and Lew Ford make a return from the baseball dead. The fantasy world was no stranger to shocks and surprises this year either. Like no other year in recent memory, the preseason rankings were flipped on their head. Many players greatly exceeded their draft day expectations, while just as many flopped. Here are the three players that disappointed the most in 2012 and the three players that gave their fantasy owners the most bang for their buck.

Disappointments

Adrian Gonzalez drew the ire of each and every one of his fantasy owners this season. He posted only 18 home runs and 108 runs batted in over the course of his disappointing 2012 season. A consensus second round pick or better this spring, Gonzalez failed to live up to his billing and even switched leagues mid-season, much to the chagrin of his AL-only owners. While he was fortunate enough to escape the sinking ship in Boston, he more than likely capsized the season of those who drafted him. Despite the fact that he added outfield eligibility in many leagues and still managed to hit .299, he was unquestionably one of the biggest busts of the 2012 season.

After years of consistent power production, Mike Napoli added batting average to his repertoire in 2011. Coming off a season in which he hit .320, Napoli was among the first catchers off the board this spring. However, if you invested in Mr. Napoli this season you undoubtedly were none too pleased with his efforts. Despite hitting in a potent Rangers lineup, he was only able to post a .227 batting average and 56 runs batted in. Couple this with the comparisons to Adrian Beltre (.321-36-102-95) and Josh Hamilton’s (.285-4-128-103) outstanding seasons and it makes his performance look even worse.

Nobody has fallen from grace quite as quickly as Tim Lincecum. After the previous four seasons in which he recorded 62 wins, well over 200 strikeouts each season, and a pair of NL Cy Young Awards, Lincecum’s 2012 season was an absolute disaster. How bad was it? He finished dead last in the NL in ERA (5.18) and WHIP (1.47) among qualifying pitchers and recorded only 10 wins, the fewest since his rookie campaign. Some have blamed a dip in his velocity for his poor results while others blame it on his unorthodox mechanics. One thing that is undeniable, however, is that The Freak did not return his draft day value at all.

Successes

Chances are if you drafted Mike Trout, you won your league in 2012. Arguably the best player in the game already, Trout posted an unprecedented rookie campaign and is a legit challenger for the AL MVP Award. While Trout was mostly an afterthought on draft day, those who remembered the name were rewarded beyond their wildest dreams as he posted a .326 batting average, 30 homers, and an AL leading 129 runs and 49 stolen bases. As good as he was in 2012, he may only be scratching the surface. Though he will mostly likely miss out on the 2012 MVP award, he almost certainly has one coming in his future.

R.A. Dickey was the story of the season in Major League Baseball. Ranked outside the top-50 starting pitchers coming into the season, all Dickey did was lead the National League in strikeouts (230) and record 20 wins. He pitched three shutouts on his way to the number one rank among fantasy pitchers in 2012 in standard scoring. While there are certainly questions about the sustainability of his success, his ability to overcome personal demons and career journeyman status in 2012 is nothing short of incredible.

This is going to be a tough read for Tigers and Angels fans. While those clubs endured issues in the back end of their bullpens, their former stopper Fernando Rodney, enjoyed a remarkable season. Kyle Farnsworth entered 2012 as the closer for Tampa but a spring injury to the big fella opened a door for Rodney, a door that he slammed shut time after time. After only one year with more than 14 saves in his career, Rodney recorded 48 in 2012 with an ERA under one. He ended the season as the number one reliever and was truly dominant all season long. Rodney was probably not drafted in most leagues, making him the best relief value of the season.

Written By Jordan Hall

2012 Positional Review – First Base

Now that the 2012 season is over, it’s time to review how my predictions went for each position in fantasy baseball. To that end, I will review my top-10 at each position and give a brief rundown on how each of the ten performed. I’ll also list which player was a “Hit” (someone who lived up to expectations) as well as a “Miss” (the player who simply failed to impress).

Note: All of these rankings are taken from the 2012 BASEBALLGUYS DRAFT GUIDE

For more on the Draft Guide you can click on the link.

For an update on what you missed in the Draft Guide, click on the link.

2012 CATCHERS

2012 FIRST BASE Top-10

1  Miguel Cabrera
2  Albert Pujols
3  Joey Votto
4  Prince Fielder
5  Adrian Gonzalez
6  Mark Teixeira
7  Paul Konerko
8  Eric Hosmer
9  Gaby Sanchez
10  Lance Berkman

* David Ortiz and Billy Butler were listed at DH.

Cabrera won the AL Triple Crown hitting .330-44-139. The homers and RBIs were career bests, and this was his 7th season he’s hit at least .320. The just completed season was also a third straight year of 109 or more runs scored and his 9th straight triple-digit RBI season – every full season of his career.

Pujols started out horrifically and it marred his final numbers though he still hit .285 with 30 homers, 105 RBIs and 85 runs scored. This just might be the player he is now. Even so, he’s still one heck of a hitter.

Votto didn’t have enough at-bats to qualify for the batting title, but did you know that Votto had a better batting average (.337 to .330), OBP (.474 to .393) and OPS (1.041 to .999) than Triple Crown winner Miguel Cabrera?

Fielder was everything the Tigers hoped he would be in his first season in Motown. He hit a career best .313, had a 4th straight .400 OBP effort, hit 30 homers for the 6th straight year and drove in 108 runs.

Gonzalez had only 18 homers and 75 runs scored, but he still hit .299 and drove in 108 runs. Expectations are the bane of his existence right now. Not mine, I know what A-Gone is, but everyone else’s who seems to think he is a top-15 fantasy overall option. He just isn’t and never was.

Teixeira had gone deep 30 times with 100 RBIs every year from 2004-11. That streak ended as he was held to 24-84 in ’12. However, injuries limited him to just 123 games. If he had appeared in 150 games, a total he reached each year from 2008-11, his prorated effort would have led to 29 homers and 102 RBIs meaning he was still right on pace in the counting categories.

Konerko’s slash line was once again impressive at .298/.371/.486, right in line with his career numbers (.283/.359/.499). However, he failed to hit 30 homers for the first time in three years (26), and his RBI total of 75 was the worst number he had ever posted in a season of 500 at-bats.

Hosmer was a brutal disappointment. He still led AL first sackers in steals (16) and he was just one homer from a 15/15 season. Actually, that’s not awful for a second year player is it? Keep an eye on him in 2013.

Everyone in the world missed on Hosmer who’s outward appearance tanked in his second season, but my call on Sanchez was the worst one I made in over 500 ranked players (I don’t really blame players for being hurt, so it’s hard to find as much fault with the equally pathetic Berkman). After back-to-back seasons of at least 19 homers, 78 RBIs and 72 runs scored he was limited to 299 pathetic at-bats hitting .217 with seven homers, 30 RBIs and 30 runs scored.

Berkman appeared in just 32 games in his worst season, perhaps the last in his career. Even with all the injuries of late, the last time Berkman appeared in less than 120 games in a season was the 2000 season.

Hit: Paul Goldschmidt (#17)
One of those I suggested targeting outside the top-10 was Goldy. The NL’s HR/SB option at first, Goldschmidt socked 20 homers and stole 18 bases. Unlike Hosmer who hit .232, Goldschmidt posted a .286 batting average in an impressive first full season.

Miss: Gaby Sanchez

By Ray Flowers

The Final Day

It’s a sad day for many in the world of baseball as this is the final day of the regular season. Hopefully your team is in the playoff mix, and your fantasy team still has something to play for on this final day of the 2012 regular season.

Miguel Cabrera is on the cusp of the Triple Crown which would be the first since Carl Yastrzemski in 1967. Cabrera has a seven point lead over Mike Trout in the batting race (.331 to .324), a one homer lead over Josh Hamilton (44 to 43), and an 11 RBI lead over Hamilton (139 to 128). Cabrera also leads the AL in SLG (.608) and OPS (1.002) and as great as Trout has been, that’s going to be hard for him to overcome when ballots are cast for the AL MVP Award.

Clayton Kershaw (hip) will make his final start today even though the Dodgers have been eliminated from the playoffs (the Dodgers went 32-31 after they picked up Hanley Ramirez, 29-27 after they added Shane Victorino, and 17-18 after they brought to town Adrian Gonzalez). Why? He’s chasing the Cy Young Award. Currently first in the NL in ERA (2.58) and WHIP (1.03) he needs 10 Ks to pass R.A. Dickey (230) for the NL lead in strikeouts as he chases his 14th victory. Even if he gets there I would bet that either Dickey or Gio Gonzalez wins the award given how the voters have traditionally cast their ballots.

Buster Posey pushed his average up to .337, .010 points clear of Andrew McCutchen for the NL Lead. Posey will obviously ended the year as the leader in the NL and it seems quite likely that he will also lead baseball in batting average. Of course, that’s not really accurate as Melky Cabrera hit .346 this season but MLB took the easy way out and removed him from consideration for the award to save face by changing the rule book mid season to remove from consideration players that were suspended for PED use.

I still can’t believe it, but Jimmy Rollins went 20/20 this season from June 1st on.

Carlos Ruiz had one hell of a season that was marred by injury. Each of the past two years he had hit better than .280, and he always walked as many times as he struck out, but that doesn’t come close to explaining his .326 batting average, especially since he posted a career worst 0.58 BB/K ratio (it was 1.00 or better the previous four seasons). At the same time, I can’t decide if the batting average or the power output was the bigger surprise. Having never hit more than nine homers in a season, and totaling 14 the past two years, Ruiz somehow went out and hit 16 bombs this year. The fact that he more than doubled his HR/F ratio this season was the reason, especially since he had a four year low in his fly ball rate. Don’t overdraft him next season – he’s not hitting .326 or going deep 16 times again.

Just for the hell of it. Who says beautiful women and baseball don’t go together?

Think you had a rough Tuesday? James Shields tossed a nine inning complete game… and lost. If that wasn’t bad enough, he authored one of the greatest complete game loses in baseball history. Shields allowed just one run in the game, two hits, and didn’t walk a batter. He also struck out a Rays’ all-time record 15 batters in the outing (no one has noticed, but Shields will end the year with 223 Ks which right now is tied with King Felix for fourth in baseball). That outing by Shields enabled him to become the first pitcher of the modern era, since 1900, to strikeout 15 batters without walking one with 15 or more strikeouts and just one run allowed.

What’s more surprising – Chase Headley knocking in 113 runs, Alfonso Soriano platting 108 or Justin Upton sitting at 67 RBIs?

By Ray Flowers

Monday’s Heroes

I was watching Captain America Saturday night (and don’t worry, I finished at 10 PM leaving me plenty of time to roll out an embarrass myself at the local tavern. Mission accomplished). I gotta say that Chris Evans played the role well, but I’m also concerned that he invaded the comic universe twice since he also played Johnny Storm, aka the Human Torch, in both the Fantastic 4 films. Shouldn’t a fella be limited to one set of tights? Oh, and that Haley Atwell, how amazing did she look in that red dress?

Ryan Braun has reached 100 RBIs and 100 runs scored in each of the past four seasons (including this one). Braun has scored at least 90-runs in each of his six seasons. Braun has recorded 95 RBIs in each of his six seasons. Braun has also hit at least 32 homers in five of six seasons as well. So, to sum up, the worst numbers that Braun has ever posted are 25 homers, 97 RBIs, 91 runs and 14 steals. Those are his worst numbers. Damn impressive.

Adrian Gonzalez had two homers Sunday night. Normally that wouldn’t stand out in a such a way that I would feel like I had to mention it, but we aren’t dealing with a normal situation with AGone. Why? After hitting a homer in his first at-bat with the Dodgers, Gonzalez then went 105 at-bats without hitting his next long ball. The lack of power has been a season long issue with Adrian who has 18 homers on the year. Take a look at his decline in the homer column the past few years – 40, 31, 27 and then the 18 this year. One positive is that his GB/FB, which was out of control last year at 1.45, is back where it should be at 1.13 (career 1.10). On the downside his HR/F rate has been in hiding like Punxsutawney Phil. A career 16.1 percent mark in the HR/F column was virtually replicated the past two years as Gonzalez had identical marks of 16.4 percent. This year that number has caved to 10.1 percent. That number should rebound in 2012, even if Dodger Stadium isn’t exactly a homer haven (the park is slightly above average this year with a 1.059 HR mark according to Park Factors).

Wandy Rodriguez welcome to consistency town. Oh he’s been far from consistent this year alternating patches of dominance with an inability to consistently get batters out, but at least he’s bringing it as the season wears down (4-1, 2.58 ERA over his last seven starts). So why do I use the the term “consistent?” He has 11 wins, the same total he has reached each of the last two years. He has a 3.76 ERA. His mark the last two years is 3.53. His WHIP this year is 1.28. His mark has been between 1.24 and 1.32 each year from 2007-11. His GB/FB ratio is 1.52. The past two years it’s been in the low 1.40′s. Hey, it’s not a great skills set, especially since his K/9 rate is down to 5.99, light years from the 7.78 or better mark he has posted the last five years, but he’s still a pretty darn stable option on the bump if you’re willing to go through the up and downs. Seems like many at Fleaflicker aren’t willing to put up with it.

Fernando Rodney has a 0.64 ERA in 70.1 innings. Two things. First, that ERA is more than three full runs below his career 3.78 mark. He will also finish the year with an ERA under 4.24 for the first time in  six years. Think about that. If you multiply his current ERA by SEVEN you would end up with a 4.48 ERA. His ERA the last five is 4.42. I’m speechless, and that never happens. Second, only one pitcher who has ever lived has thrown 70-innings in a season while posting a lower mark and that was Dennis Eckersley who had a 0.61 mark in 1990 for the Athletics.

Huston Street is back in action for the Padres. Street picked up a save Sunday, his 22nd of the season, he hasn’t blown even one chance this year, even though it was a bit bumpy. That’s totally beyond the point though. Street is sporting a 5-year best with his 10.95 K/9 mark, and his ERA is a career best at 0.97, two full runs below his 2.95 career mark. However, the truly astounding thing is that WHIP which is, wait for it, 0.59. That is not a misprint. In 37 innings Street has allowed 10 walks and just 12 hits. Amazing.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

Dustin Ackley, what the heck happened to you? Weren’t you supposed to be a polished hitter, ready for immediate big league success after being taken 2nd overall in the 2009 Entry Draft? Not so much eh? Ackley does have a few things going for him in that he’s scored 68 runs (pace of 88) and has 12 steals (pace of 15). Those numbers, when combined with 41 RBIs (pace 53), mark him as a potential middle infield option in deep mixed leagues. However, when you look over and see that .229 batting, that outlook becomes an outdated one. You can’t give up on Ackley and what should be a successful career, but it’s pretty obvious at this point that he just hasn’t been able to put together consistent at-bats in the bigs, and that leaves his fantasy value teetering on the brink of irrelevance in many leagues (he’s only owned in 56 percent of leagues at Fleaflicker).

Aaron Cook has made 11 starts this year for the Red Sox, and he’s gone 3-7 with a 4.79 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Clearly the Sox have had issues with their rotation or why would they have bothered to give Cook 11 starts. But that’s not my point here. Do you know that in 11 starts Cook has – 11 strikeouts? Eleven. One an outing. One every 5.6 innings or 1.60 per nine. Among pitchers who have thrown at least 60-innings in a season since 1950 that’s the 7th worst K/9 mark. George O’Donnell somehow had a 0.83 K/9 mark in 1954 with eight Ks in 87 innings. That was his only season in the big leagues.

The Astros’ owner, Jim Crane, is “open” to adding Roger Clemens to the club if the 50 year old proves he still has something left. Why not since the Astros have the worst record in baseball at 39-86, and according to my latest look at their roster they do not have a single player on their current roster making more than $750,000 other than Ben Francisco at $1.537 million. That’s embarrassing. How could you possibly be an Astros fan?

The Red Sox have placed Josh Beckett,  Jacoby Ellsbury, Adrian Gonzalez and Jon Lester on waivers. It’s unlikely any of the trio will be moved, but we have learned that the Dodgers have placed a claim on A-Gone meaning they have 48 hours to see if they can work something out with the Sox. Don’t count on that happening.

Albert Pujols‘ calf issue is improving, and he could be back in action as soon as this weekend for the Angels. That’s hugely important to Pujols owners considering that he had hit eight homers and driven in 19 runners in his first 19 games played in August. Who would have thought it, but it seems probable that Pujols will get to 30 homers and 99 RBIs for a 12th straight season. He may not get to .299, the mark he has posted each of his first 11 years, he’s at .283 right now, but he has hit .317 since the All-Star break so it’s possible that a strong finish could get him up to that mark.

Mike Trout leads baseball with 41 steals, and he’s also been caught just four times for a 91 percent success rate, a big time success rate that is hard to maintain from year to year. The only player in baseball with more than 30 steals who has been caught fewer times is Emilio “I can’t stay healthy” Bonifacio who has 30 steals in 33 chances. Given that he’s played in only 64 games this season, Emilio is on a 160 game pace of 75 thefts, a huge number in this day and age. Speaking of steals, Tony Campana, in limited playing time, has racked up a rather impressive total of 26 steals. I say that because he has appeared in just 70 games with a mere 158 at-bats. Campana is also sporting a pathetic OBP of .299, has knocked in five runs all year, and somehow has scored five less times (21) than he has stolen a base. Amazingly, the mighty mite has just one steal since June 30th which means he has one one theft in roughly two months.

DAILY JOUST CONTESTS

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By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust – Wk 16: Did We Learn Anything?

Monday each week I take a look at the fantasy baseball game breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances of late – not just positive outings mind you, but I’ll also delve into some of the players that have been sucking wind of late. Can you use this information to your benefit over at DailyJoust?

To get your daily fantasy baseball fix make sure you head over to DailyJoust.com to set your salary cap club.

GAINERS OF THE WEEK

Danny Espinosa (+13, $81K in DailyJoust Salary)
With Ian Desmond looking like he could miss a month or more of playing time with his oblique issue, Steve Lombardozzi will handle second base duties full time with Espinosa moving over to shortstop for the Nats. Espy already has six starts at shortstop, and given that most leagues have no more than a 10 game limit for in-season positional qualification, he’s about ready to become one interesting option up the middle. In addition, have you noticed that he’s actually started to hit as well? The past three weeks the only two second sackers who have been more valuable than Espy are Neil Walker and Brandon Phillips. Espinosa is hitting .359 with two homers, eight RBIs, 11 runs scored and four thefts in that time frame. Get on the Espy train as it’s about to fill up quickly.

Adrian Gonzalez (+12, $126K)
I keep getting questions about this guy as it seems that people haven’t noticed that all of a sudden AGone is just killing it. Hitting .406 in July with 15 RBIs in 16 games, Gonzalez is batting an even .400 over his last 90 at-bats to push his season long mark up to .297. ‘What about the nine homers in 94 games Ray?’ What were you expecting? Fenway Park isn’t a great place for home run hitters if you’re a lefty. I tried to explain just that on January 6th, 2011 in ADP Riser: Adrian Gonzalez. That’s right, over a year an a half ago. No one listened. He went out and hit 27 homers last year. People still didn’t listen and thought a return to 35+ homers was happening this year. It hasn’t as he has nine. That’s 36 homers in 253 games with the Sox. He averaged 36 homers a season his last two years at Petco. One final note. In 133 career games at Fenway AGone is hitting .333 with 17 homers.

Joe Kelly (+72, $267K)
He’s taken the hill seven times for the Cards and he’s allowed more than two earned runs only one time (the Royals produced three). Kelly has also gone exactly six innings in each of his last five starts, all of them “quality.” Still not remotely sold on him. His 5.72 K/9 mark is poor. His 1.79 K/BB ratio is really bad. His ERA of 2.75 should be a run and a half higher given his skill set (no way he holds on to that 80 percent left on base mark, and that 23 percent line drive rate is pretty high as well). He’s a solid arm who generates a lot of grounders, but it’s not likely that he keeps that ERA under three (it’s 2.75) and that 1.40 WHIP is already worse than the league average.

Jason Kubel (+21, $121K)
Someone ate their Wheaties. Four homers, seven RBIs and five runs scored in two games, and six homers, 11 RBIs, eight runs in his last seven contests. Out of control anyone? Going back a bit further Kubel has been doing his best Josh Hamilton impersonation for a long while as he’s hit .304 with 17 homers and 48 RBIs over his last 39 games. Hell, the guy is even hitting .296 against left handed pitching this year (career .247). Ride the gravy train until it runs out, but some perspective. There’s zero chance he sustains his line drive rate (it’s 24 percent but has been under 20 percent three of four years). There’s zero chance he sustains his HR/F ratio (it’s 20 percent after being 11 percent the past two years). He’s striking out more than ever before (25.4 percent K-rate versus 19.4 for his career). It’s all going right for Kubel, and the ballpark in Arizona is certainly helping, but we know all good things must come to an end, right?

LOSERS OF THE WEEK

Justin Masterson (-102, $276K)
Even though he tossed seven shutout innings against the Blue Jays on July 13th Masterson has still allowed 12 earned runs over his last 15.1 innings. Yeah, not good. Not just that, he has also walked 12 batters in those three starts including seven the last time he took the hill. That doesn’t sound like someone who has any idea what’s going on right now (Justin walked nine batters in his previous seven starts). On the year a lot is going as expected with Masterson, but he simply has to cut down on the free passes (his 3.93 per nine mark is more than a batter above the level he flashed last season in his breakout effort).

Angel Pagan (-32, $57K)
Pagan killed it in May hitting .375 with eight steals. Not so much since then though. Over his last 41 games he’s gone deep once, stolen just seven bases and hit a mere .235. The result is a slash line of .281/.326/.398, not exactly impressive for a guy who is on pace to fall well short of 10 homers and 65 RBIs. The 17 thefts are nice, but Pagan’s just not a very dynamic option. In search of offense, it’s possible the Giants might even make a trade to bring in another outfield bat in which case Pagan may not be looked at as an every day starter.

Wandy Rodriguez (-59, $234K)
A two-time starter this week, Wandy really needs to show something so that the Astros can move him for peak value before the trade deadline. After allowing nine runs in his last two starts, two loses, his ERA sits at 3.75 for the season. It was 2.49 on June 1st. Wandy has also seen his K-rate plummet this year to 5.99, a horrible mark for a guy who has posted a mark of at least 7.78 each of the past five years. He’s offset the loss of punchouts with a career best walk rate that has led to a 2.86 K/BB ratio which would be a three year high, but that doesn’t help out his fantasy value where we need punchouts (he’s also generating more grounders than ever before at 52 percent of batted balls).

Drew Stubbs (-29, $57K)
Terribly disappointing. That could be the name on the back of Stubbs jersey. At the same time, could it be expectations were too high? The last two years Stubbs averaged 154 games played. Right now he has 77 games played. Multiply 77 by two and you get – 154 games. Therefore, let’s simply double Stubb’s numbers this season and compare them to his 2011 effort.

2011: .243-15-44-92-40 with a .686 OPS
2012: .217-18-48-88-36 with a .644 OPS

Certainly he’s off the pace from last season a wee bit, but honestly, nothing in that 2012 pace would have been thought of as an unreasonable outlook for Stubbs in 2012 given his efforts last season. Maybe the batting average is a bit low, but a hot three weeks could get him back up to .240 and then he’d be right on the same pace as he almost always is (people over at Fleaflicker seem to have mixed feelings about the outfielder). Just some food for thought.

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By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: May 31, 2012

Each week I’ll be here answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Eric Hosmer and Brandon Morrow too much for Adrian Gonzalez? 14 tm mixed keeper.
– @strofaninKC

Hosmer is hitting .204 with a .617 OPS disappointing everyone who drafted him to be a starter at first base this year. At the same time he has hits in eight of his last nine games and finally seems to have found his bearings. As I’ve said many times, his walk rate is up while his strikeout rate is down from his rookie season (his BB/K has gone from 0.41 to 0.62), while his GB/FB ratio is also similar (1.57 to 1.75). Hosmer’s line drive rate has also crept back up to 17 percent, within shouting distance of his 18.7 percent mark from last season. Given all of that, there really is no way to explain how his .314 BABIP as a rookie has dipped to .208 this year, so there would seem to be a fair amount of room for growth here. Even with all his struggles this year Hosmer is still on pace for 19 homers and 82 RBIs, similar to the 19 and 78 marks he posted last season, albeit in 90 more at-bats.

Morrow has been dynamic this year. Through 11 starts he has a 6-3 record with 3.28 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. He’s also completely dominated batters at times with 62 Ks in 68.2 innings, and seven times in his 11 outings he has allowed zero or one run thanks in no small part to a significant reduction in his walk rate (last four years: 5.68 per nine, 4.06, 3.46 and 2.88 this year). Unfortunately he took a ball off his shin Wednesday night in what looked like a scary scene. Reports suggest that he has a good chance to make his next start, so perhaps he escaped a significant injury, but there is at least some uncertainty at the moment.

Gonzalez, and I’ve said and written this many times, was not worth a first round pick this year. His .338 average last year was .034 points higher than it had ever been and .046 points above his career batting average (that’s akin Adam Dunn hitting .289). As I also pointed out many times, despite the perception, Fenway is a tough park for left-handed power hitters to go deep, and Adrian’s performance backs me up: in 106 career games at Fenway A-Gone has hit a mere 12 homers (he has slapped 31 doubles around the barn). Despite all that Gonzalez has still woefully underperformed hitting less than Yonder Alonso (..279 to .274) with fewer homers than Ike Davis (five to four) and the same amount of RBIs as Justin Smoak (27), and that isn’t likely to continue.

I’d take a shot on the two players. Morrow’s health situation makes me a bit nervous, but if he’s healthy he should be able to push the duo above the value you will get from Gonzalez the rest of the way since Hosmer finally looks to be figuring it out.

Dan Haren and Lucas Duda for Edwin Encarnacion?
– @knkorte

Haren has been up and down this year but over his last two starts he has allowed just one run, struck out 21 batters, issued not a single walk, and won both outings. As a result his season long numbers all of a sudden look elite again: 8.29 K/9 (would be a 3-year high), 1.76 BB/9 (just below his career 1.88 mark), 1.15 GB/FB (career 1.19), 0.88 HR/9 (career 1.01). Face it, Haren is back to being the top-15 option on the hill that he was drafted to be. Amazingly consistent is this righty.

Duda has gone deep three times in his last six games nearly doubling his total of four homers in 43 games. He’s also hitting a mere .257 with 26 RBI and 20 runs scored while sporting a decent .346 OBP. To this point of the season he has been the definition of blah. Still, what he is currently doing would lead to a season of 20 homers and 80+ RBI, so if he can just get a few more balls to fall for hits, maybe get that average up to the .270 range, he wouldn’t be that bad a corner infield option in mixed leagues now would he (he’s only owned in 35 percent of Fleaflicker leagues)?

People get way ahead of themselves sometimes. Encarnacion is on pace for an epic season of .274-54-130-95-19 with a .920 OPS. Realize I used the word “pace.” Here are the facts. (1) EE has never hit 30 homers in a season. (2) EE has never had 80 RBI. (3) EE has never had 80 runs scored. (4) EE has never stolen 10 bases in a season. (5) EE has never had an OPS of .835. That’s a whole lot of “never” for a guy who has played seven previous seasons in the big leagues. It’s also worth mentioning that EE has appeared in less than 100 games in two of the past three seasons because of injures, and his current batting average (.274) and OBP (.336) are basically career average numbers (.265 and .334). There is no chance that he keeps up the current pace, none, the question is how much will he slow down?

I’d take the duo. Haren is a rock of epic proportions – you know exactly what you’ll get from him. Duda is no Encarnacion, though his “pace” this season would equate to what everyone would have expected from Encarnacion this season, but he should be an effective offensive player this season for the Mets. Don’t mistake me, I’m about as big an Encarnacion fan as there is out there, but what he has done to this point of the season just boggles the mind and portends a significant slow down the rest of the way.

Jed Lowrie or Rafael Furcal?
– @glh205

Lowrie is one of my favorite whipping boys. He seems to always have a three week stretch in which he looks like the second coming of Cal Ripken. However, he then follows it up with a three week stretch where he’s Johnnie LeMaster like. In the end, what we end up with is a slightly better than average hitter. Take his career slash line. In 969 at-bats it’s .256/.328/.419. What is the league average since his career started? How about .262/.329/.414. If we pro-rate his career work over 500 at-bats we end up with a season of .256-14-71-68-3. That’s a solid season for a guy who qualifies at third and shortstop, but it’s nothing to get excited about (Alexei Ramirez hit .269-15-70-81-7 last year and no one was falling all over themselves to draft him this year).

Furcal is hitting .333. The last time he hit .300 in a season of 100 games was 2006. Furcal has a .391 OBP. The last time he posted a mark that high in a season of 100 games was his rookie season of 2000. Furcal has a .460 SLG. The last time he posted a mark that high in a season of 100 games was — never. Why do I keep mentioning 100 games? That is the game total that Furcal has failed to reach in three of the previous four seasons do to injury. Is it reasonable to think that the 36 year old shortstop will be able to blow past that total with ease this year, not to mention doing so while performing at the highest levels of his career? There’s no disputing that there is significant talent with Furcal, and if he were to stay healthy an appear in 140+ games his production would be impressive given his hot start, but there is just so much here that sends up a big yellow cautionary flag with the Cardinals’ shortstop. Still, give me Furcal. I know there are a myriad of legitimate concerns with him, but he possesses more fantasy worthy skills than Lowrie at this point.

Paul Goldschmidt or Delmon Young in a re-draft heavy hitter league?
– @JHAWK707

In one of the most inexplicable situations in recent years, Goldschmidt simply annihilates Tim Lincecum. In 13 at-bats he has seven hits which include a double and four home runs (in 2012 he is merely 2-for-4 with two homers). Against the rest of the league he has hit .245 with eight homers in 283 career at-bats, pretty dreadful numbers for an “offensive force” that plays first base. We’re talking under 100 games of big league experience though, so this story clearly hasn’t been written yet. What is extremely heartening is that Paul has hits in 9-straight games as his average has gone up from .219 to .266 while his OP has climbed nearly a .150 points as well (.630 to .775).

Young, when he isn’t getting in trouble with the law, has been a disappointment on the field hitting .245 with a sickly .657 OPS. He still never walks, just seven free passes this year, and he continues to show nothing on the base paths (he has one steal in his last 167 games). There really is nothing to recommend Young at this point other than his pedigree and the fact that he owns a career .286 average and has hit worse than .284 only one time (though it was last year at .245).

I’d take Goldschmidt who has more power potential and for the fact that he has been the hotter hitter of late.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday.