Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

Dustin Ackley, what the heck happened to you? Weren’t you supposed to be a polished hitter, ready for immediate big league success after being taken 2nd overall in the 2009 Entry Draft? Not so much eh? Ackley does have a few things going for him in that he’s scored 68 runs (pace of 88) and has 12 steals (pace of 15). Those numbers, when combined with 41 RBIs (pace 53), mark him as a potential middle infield option in deep mixed leagues. However, when you look over and see that .229 batting, that outlook becomes an outdated one. You can’t give up on Ackley and what should be a successful career, but it’s pretty obvious at this point that he just hasn’t been able to put together consistent at-bats in the bigs, and that leaves his fantasy value teetering on the brink of irrelevance in many leagues (he’s only owned in 56 percent of leagues at Fleaflicker).

Aaron Cook has made 11 starts this year for the Red Sox, and he’s gone 3-7 with a 4.79 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Clearly the Sox have had issues with their rotation or why would they have bothered to give Cook 11 starts. But that’s not my point here. Do you know that in 11 starts Cook has – 11 strikeouts? Eleven. One an outing. One every 5.6 innings or 1.60 per nine. Among pitchers who have thrown at least 60-innings in a season since 1950 that’s the 7th worst K/9 mark. George O’Donnell somehow had a 0.83 K/9 mark in 1954 with eight Ks in 87 innings. That was his only season in the big leagues.

The Astros’ owner, Jim Crane, is “open” to adding Roger Clemens to the club if the 50 year old proves he still has something left. Why not since the Astros have the worst record in baseball at 39-86, and according to my latest look at their roster they do not have a single player on their current roster making more than $750,000 other than Ben Francisco at $1.537 million. That’s embarrassing. How could you possibly be an Astros fan?

The Red Sox have placed Josh Beckett,  Jacoby Ellsbury, Adrian Gonzalez and Jon Lester on waivers. It’s unlikely any of the trio will be moved, but we have learned that the Dodgers have placed a claim on A-Gone meaning they have 48 hours to see if they can work something out with the Sox. Don’t count on that happening.

Albert Pujols‘ calf issue is improving, and he could be back in action as soon as this weekend for the Angels. That’s hugely important to Pujols owners considering that he had hit eight homers and driven in 19 runners in his first 19 games played in August. Who would have thought it, but it seems probable that Pujols will get to 30 homers and 99 RBIs for a 12th straight season. He may not get to .299, the mark he has posted each of his first 11 years, he’s at .283 right now, but he has hit .317 since the All-Star break so it’s possible that a strong finish could get him up to that mark.

Mike Trout leads baseball with 41 steals, and he’s also been caught just four times for a 91 percent success rate, a big time success rate that is hard to maintain from year to year. The only player in baseball with more than 30 steals who has been caught fewer times is Emilio “I can’t stay healthy” Bonifacio who has 30 steals in 33 chances. Given that he’s played in only 64 games this season, Emilio is on a 160 game pace of 75 thefts, a huge number in this day and age. Speaking of steals, Tony Campana, in limited playing time, has racked up a rather impressive total of 26 steals. I say that because he has appeared in just 70 games with a mere 158 at-bats. Campana is also sporting a pathetic OBP of .299, has knocked in five runs all year, and somehow has scored five less times (21) than he has stolen a base. Amazingly, the mighty mite has just one steal since June 30th which means he has one one theft in roughly two months.

DAILY JOUST CONTESTS

I’ve spent this article talking about baseball, which obviously isn’t at all odd given that this is BaseballGuys.com, but I’ve got a way that you can, in addition to playing fantasy baseball, also play some fantasy football. How can you do that? You can head over to DailyJoust and sign up for any of the myriad of games they have to offer. For those of you who are hardcore baseball fans like me they are still running daily fantasy games for you, well, daily. For those of you who are read to take on the gridiron, there are three pretty exciting games they have to offer. You can find a report on each at the following links (scroll down to the bottom of the articles for the explanations).

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By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: August14, 2012

(1) C.J. Wilson’s hand OK, but he’s struggling.

(2) Ryan Vogelsong bombed. Still he’s been remarkably consistent.

(3) Carlos Villanueva pitching very well as a starter.

(4) Ryan Dempster looks terrible for Rangers (as I predicted might happen in Trade Day Diary). Still, not all hope is lost.

(5) Danny Espinosa doing better than you likely think.

(6) Albert Pujols producing, what a shock. On pace to make history yet again.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: July11, 2012

FIRST HALF DISAPPOINTMENTS

(1) Tim Lincecum has dreadful first half.

(2) Evan Longoria continued leg woes.

(3) Dustin Pedroia weighed down by thumb issues.

(4) Carl Crawford – where have you been?

(5) Jacoby Ellsbury missed significant time for 2nd time in three years.

(6) Brett Gardner’s quest for elbow health.

(7) Dan Haren hits DL for first time.

(8) Mariano Rivera finally fails.

(9) Albert Pujols’ OPS is down .250 points.

(10) Carlos Santana failing miserably to match expectations.

DAILY JOUST CONTEST – TAKE ON THE ORACLE

It’s time for me to put my reputation on the line. Are you ready for the challenge of taking me on in a fantasy baseball contest? You think you can take down the Oracle? $50 HEADS UP VS. ME!

MLB – Tournament – Fri, Jul 13th – Ray Flowers 50/50 Challenge Friday 7/13

$5 Entry Fee. Top 10 win $9 prize.

Top score gets to play a free $50 prize heads up against me, Ray Flowers, on Friday July 20.

All you have to do to take me on is to prove yourself this week. Do that, and next week it’s me against you in a battle of fantasy titans.

For those of you interested in the scoring, here are the rules of the event.

Scoring Breakdown

Scoring for hitting (C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, LF, CF, RF)

•Total Bases (TB) = 1 pt for each base (Single = 1, Double = 2, Triple = 3, Home Run = 4)
•Hit (H) = 1 pts
•Run Scored (R) = 2 pts
•Run Batted In (RBI) = 2 pts
•Stolen Base (SB) = 2 pts
•Walk (BB) = 1 pt
•Hit By Pitch (HBP) = 1 pt
•Sacrifice (SAC) = 1 pt
•Strike Out (SO) = -1 pt
•Grounded Into Double Play (GIDP) = -1 pt

Scoring for pitching (SP or P)

•Inning Pitched (IP) = 1 pt for every 1/3 Inning Pitched (e.g. per out)
•Strike Out (SO) = 1 pt
•Earned Runs (ER) = -2 pts
•Hit (H) = -1 pt
•Walk (BB) = -1 pt
•Hit Batsman (HBP) = -1 pt
•Win (W) = 7 pts

Can you take down The Oracle? If so, here’s the link to give it a shot.

By Ray Flowers

2012 BaseballGuys.com Mid-Season Rankings

Back in late January the BaseballGuys 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide was offered to facilitate your quest to dominate the fantasy competition. A lot has changed since then though, an awful lot.

Carlos Santana has been a massive disappointment behind the dish.

Albert Pujols struggled mightily out of the gate.

Evan Longoria had multiple setbacks with a lower body injury.

Dustin Pedroia has been largely ineffective due to injury.

Troy Tulowitzki is on the shelf yet again.

Jacoby Ellsbury, Carl Crawford and Matt Kemp suffered significant injuries.

Roy Halladay was hurt.

Two-thirds of the bullpens in baseball have switched closers.

Obviously, a lot has changed since the 2012 season began.

Given those facts, I thought now would be a great time update my Player Rankings. Here’s what I’ve done.

I’ve ranked the top-40 players at the following positions: C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B.
I’ve ranked the top-100 outfielders.
I’ve ranked the top-150 starting pitchers.
I’ve ranked the top-75 relievers.

That’s 525 players ranked for the second half of the 2012 baseball season.

How do you get your copy of the5x5, mixed league rankings?

On the right hand side of the BaseballGuys page, near the top, is a YELLOW DONATE tab. Simply click on the tab, donate $1.00 through Paypal, and The Mid-Season Rankings will be on their way to you within hours.

$1 folks – that’s it. That’s like going to iTunes and downloading a song.

It’s just that simple.

Donate to the BaseballGuys.com cause and I’ll send you an email with the PDF file containing the rankings.

There’s still time to win your fantasy baseball league this season, so let BaseballGuys.com help to guide you to that championship.

By Ray Flowers

Fantasy Beat: It’s Trading Season

Justin Fensterman and Trevor Ray discuss trades they have recently made. They discuss reasons for trading at this junction of the season, reasons to for trade players or trade away players and much more. They discuss Johan Santana, Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols, Giancarlo Stanton, Yoenis Cespedes, Jonathan Broxton, Aaron Harang.

Listen to the Audio.

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. First, the weekend is nearly upon us (thank goodness). Second, it’s time to get your drink on. Third, it’s time to get ready for your weekend of fantasy baseball  with DailyJoust.com. DJ allows you the chance to play daily fantasy baseball, choose a team today an another one tomorrow if you want, all the while giving you the chance to make some real money. Today, I’ll give some advice on how you might choose to fill out your lineup for Friday or Saturday.

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Michael Cuddyer vs. Kevin Millwood: We all know that Millwood is nothing more than a place holder anyway. Put him in Coors Field and things could get ugly. Cuddyer has long enjoyed the matchup with the righty as he’s hit .429 with two homers in 28 at-bats. Jason Giambi (.421-3-5) and Todd Helton (.324-2-6) have also enjoyed considerable success in the matchup.

Albert Pujols vs. Jeff Suppan: The latest Padres scrap heap add, Suppan is 2-12 with a 1.69 ERA through three starts. He won’t keep that up much longer. He’s also in grave danger of being tattooed by Mr. Pujols who has suddenly has a 6-game hit streak including two homers and five RBI the last two games. Pujols is also 16-for-42, a .381 average, with a homer and six RBI against Suppan.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

Edwin Jackson vs. Orioles: Jackson has pitched very well for the Nats this year with a 3.71 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 4.22 K/BB ratio in his first seven starts for the club. Friday he faces an Orioles club that he has long had success against. In nine career outings against the team from Baltimore he is 5-1 with a 3.61 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 40 Ks in 47.1 innings, numbers that don’t look at all out of place compared to his work this season.

Ted Lilly vs. Cardinals: In 2008-09 Lilly went 4-1 against the Cardinals and in his career against the Cardinals he’s also 7-3 with a 2.85 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over 14 starts. He’s also 5-0 this have allowed a single run in four of his six starts (the other two times out he’s allowed six runs leading to a 2.11 ERA for the year).

Carlos Zambrano vs. Indians: In seven starts this season only two times has Big Z allowed more than one earned run (he allowed four runs in six innings in his first start and three runs in six innings on April 27th). The result is a 1.88 ERA and 1.04 WHIP across his 48 innings. It’s hard to sit him against anyone right now.

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Adam Dunn vs. Ryan Dempster: The Cubs ace is pitching very well to start the year (1.74 ERA, .097 WHIP) but Dunn is performing equally as well for the White Sox (12 HR, 30 RBI, .947 OPS in 39 games) . In 27 career plate appearances against Dempster Dunn has hit .294 while he’s walked 10 times leading to an otherworldly .556 OBP (he has two homers and four RBI as well).

Adrian Gonzalez vs. Joe Blanton: AGone hasn’t lived up to expectations this year but he’s set up for a matchup Saturday that should certainly be advantageous to him. In 16 at-bats against Blanton he has seven hits, two of which are big flies, and he’s knocked in four runs leading to a .438 average and 1.283 OPS.

Ty Wigginton vs. Jon Lester: These two have only squared off 20 times but Wigginton has produced eight hits (.400) including a homer. Add in the four walks Ty has also been able to accrue and the Phillies’ batter has a video game like .538 OBP in the matchup.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Christian Friedrich vs. Mariners: How is this for a way to start your big league career. Take on the Padres in San Diego. Then fly north up the California coast to take on the Giants in San Francisco. How about you them hop on a plan to fly home to take on the Mariners. Has a pitcher ever had a better set of three opponents to take on to start his big league career? Through 13 innings the lefty with the dominating curve ball has 17 Ks, two walks allowed an a 1.38 ERA.

Derek Holland vs. Astros: He’s made two starts against the Astros, and though his ERA is 4.15 his WHIP is impressive at 1.08, as is his BAA of .234. Plus, the Astros are far from being an offensive juggernaut, right? There’s also the fact that over his last 14.1 innings that Holland has allowed one earned run.

Yovani Gallardo vs. Twins: The Twins are in the bottom five in many offensive categories this year including runs scored which should certainly help Gallardo who has allowed just four runs while striking out 14 batters over his last 12 innings. Gallardo has also impressed in four starts against the Twins in his career with a 2.48 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 27 Ks in 29 innings.

CONTESTS

There is still time to take me on in a one day fantasy baseball game, today, Friday.

Click on the link to Take on Ray Flowers to learn how you can sign up for free to win $, and to get bragging rights by beating a baseball expert.

Get on it!

By Ray Flowers

The Fantasy Beat: Jeff Erickson of Rotowire.com

Justin and Trevor are joined this week by Jeff Erickson from RotoWire.com. They discuss Bryan LaHair, Albert Pujols, Carlos Marmol, Tim Lincecum, punting categories, third base worries and who to possibly add (Ian Stewart, Jed Lowrie, Pedro Alvarez, Chris Davis, Chris Johnson)  and much more.

Listen to the Audio.

Mailbag: May 3, 2012

Each week I’ll be here answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Should I deal Shane Victorino for Eric Hosmer ?
– @cooperkyle22

I always wonder why Victorino gets such little love in the fantasy game? I know he has no outstanding skill, so that must be the reason. He’s never hit 20 homers. He’s never knocked in 70 runs. He’s never stolen 40 bases. He’s never hit .295 in a season. Come to think of it, why do I like him? Oh wait, I know why, it’s because he is consistently productive across the board. From 2008-2011 an “average” Victorino season has led to a fantasy line of .281-15-63-96-29. Again, none of those numbers jump off the page, but how about we look at it differently. How many players in baseball met all those marks last season? The answer is three – Ryan Braun, Jacoby Ellsbury and Matt Kemp. Victorino fell short at .279-17-61-95-19, still a strong effort that only six other men could match (add in Dustin Pedroia, Justin Upton and Melky Cabrera).

Hosmer was talked up to the point this offseason that if he didn’t go .300-30-100 he was going to be viewed as a disappointment. When you look up after 23 games and see that he’s hitting .183 with a .638 OPS people are having to be dissuaded not to end it all. Let’s pull back though for a second an add some perspective. In 151 career games Hosmer has hit .276 with 24 homers, 92 RBI, 79 runs and 12 steals. How impressive a season would that be for pretty much any first baseman, let alone one that has appeared in just 151 games in his career? In fact, because of the added element of speed that he brings, would it surprise you to learn that not a single first baseman went .276-24-92-79-12 last season? Despite the struggles this year Hosmer has upped his walk rate by about 35 percent while cutting down his strikeout rate. He’s also upped his HR/F ratio to 19.2 percent (13.5 percent last year). It’s also a pretty safe bet that he won’t finish the year with a .162 BABIP. He’ll recover, he’s simply too talented not to.

I’m a big fan of Hosmer who was able to adjust from his struggles last year and rebound to perform, but I’m still going to hold on to Shane Victorino as much for his all-around production as for his history of high level play.

I hated drafting Mark Reynolds and yet I did it. Should I consider dropping him for Will Middlebrooks?
– @SFarup

You know what you get when you roster Reynolds. You get a guy who will be fortunate to hit .240, but one that should produce plenty in the counting numbers. In a highly overlooked situation where people focus more on what Reynolds can’t do than on what he can, it’s often been missed that over the past three years, 2009-11, Reynolds has hit more homers than any other third baseman, posted the second most runs at the position, and been third amongst third sackers in RBI. That’s top-3 in all three categories in case you missed that. However, we’re 20 games into Reynolds season and he’s hitting .136 with no homer, three RBI and four runs. Even I’m scared now. I don’t think he’s going to pull an Adam Dunn, but that has to be a concern at this point. On the plus side Reynolds is currently walking more often than ever before and his BABIP of .257 fits in nicely with his marks of .257 and .266 the past two years. His current line drive rate is also at a three year high. So why the struggles you ask? He hasn’t hit a single home run to boost his average which is a bit odd since he’s actually hit a few more fly balls than normal. He should rebound if given the time to do so (playing time is obviously a big concern at this point).

Middlebrooks was called up when Kevin Youkilis hit the DL with a back issue. Thought of as one of the handful of best prospects in the game at the hot corner, Middlebrooks had two hits in his first game with the Sox and that opened the floodgates for questions about the prospect. Middlebrooks is solid defensively and on offense he has power to all fields. However his K-rate has hovered around 25-30 percent in the minors, and that doesn’t speak to a guy who is going to be a solid average producer in the big leagues. He’s also displayed that solid pop without ever being a big time power threat, and he’s also not very patient at the plate. Don’t get me wrong the guy has a bright future, but at this point of his development he could benefit from some more time at Triple-A, which he figures to get. Why do I say that? When Youkilis is back with the Sox, where does Middlebrooks play? David Ortiz and Adrian Gonzalez will be the everyday DH and 1B, so what, the Red Sox will put Youkilis on the bench? That’s just not a likely scenario.

Short term you can give Middlebrooks a shot, but I’d be remiss if I didn’t tell you that if it was my team I’d hold on to Reynolds.

Evan Longoria replacement with empty slot: stick with my Daniel Murphy or pick up Pedro Alvarez, Chris Johnson or Chipper Jones?
– @mindmagi

It looks like Longoria will miss anywhere from 6-8 weeks with a hamstring injury, a crushing blow for his owners. Since I’ve gotten similar questions from so many people the past few days, here are a few thoughts on the potential replacements.

Murphy: A nice support player because he qualifies at first, second and third base, Murphy has gone 0-for-9 to drop his average down to .283. That’s certainly a mark he can sustain, he’s a career .291 hitter, but his lack of power right now is pretty brutal (no homers in 99 at-bats and just seven RBI). Murphy will never be anything more than a 15 homer bat, it’s just not his game, but when you don’t steal bases, don’t go deep, and don’t knock runners in, your roster spot is in question in a standard mixed league.

Alvarez: The perpetual underachiever is on fire right now. Over his last 10 games he’s doubled his average from .118 to .242 while socking four homers, knocking in 10 runners and scoring eight times. He still has a whopping 24 Ks in 66 at-bats, and just four walks on the season, but at least the hot run of late gives us some hope that he might finally be starting to live up to expectations, even if there are still significant holes in his game.

Johnson: When you get four hits, including two homers, and six RBI in one game people take notice. Hitting .311 with 14 RBI through 23 games for the Astros, Johnson is a pretty blah option. Not only does he have more Ks (24) than games played, he’s also walked only three times leaving him with a career BB/K mark of 0.16 which is so hideous that the appropriately damning adjective simply slips my mind. Johnson, best case scenario, is a .270-20-80 type of effort, but that doesn’t mean he will reach any of those three totals this year.

Jones: Always productive – when he is on the field. Chipper has repeatedly mentioned to the press that his knees are shot, and that it’s a struggle to make it out onto the field every night. Chipper has four homers and 14 RBI through 16 games, and that .273 average is obviously sustainable, but you have to set your sights with him on a replication of last years efforts, nothing more (.275-18-70 in 126 games).

Mariano Rivera and Jesus Montero for Albert Pujols, what do you think?
– @wbischof

Andruw Jones once fell on his face going from an All-Star to after thought in one season. Adan Dunn did is last year. Mark Reynolds may be on his way to doing it this year. Albert Pujols will not follow that path. It’s possible that Pujols will end the year with the worst numbers of his career, he’s been so awful for 25 games that there is a very real possibility that will happen (.208-0-5-9). Still, are you really going to throw out 11 years of excellence over one bad month? If you are I will not be joining you. Does anyone out there honestly doubt that Pujols could hit .300 with 30 homers and 100 RBI in his remaining 130 games? I’m not saying he will, but I still think it’s possible.

Rivera, given the lunacy that has occurred in bullpens across baseball, has to be one of the most valuable players in fantasy baseball. All he does is go out there, year after year, and produce (check out his efforts over at Fleaflicker). Nothing has changed there at all. Montero has appeared in eight games at catcher (seven starting), so there might still be some leagues where he only qualifies at DH which limits his value. If he qualifies at catcher how can you complain about a guy who is on pace to hit better than .290 with more than 20 homers? You can’t. Still, the guys has 19 Ks in 23 games and he’s walked just two times. Eventually an approach like that is bound to catch up to anyone making Montero hard pressed to be someone you should be looking at hitting .300 this year.

If you’re one of those people who is stuck at catcher – you’ve been rolling out there Kurt Suzuki and Geo Soto – and if you’re bullpen was at one point anchored by Andrew Bailey and Drew Storen, then you could hold on to the duo. If that isn’t the case I’m all about adding Albert Pujols. The breakout is coming.

By Ray Flowers

The Fantasy Beat: Paitence is a Virtue

Justin Fensterman and Trevor Ray discuss some players off to slow starts and tell you if you should hold on, trade for them, or trade them away.

Albert Pujols, Tim Lincecum, Alex Gordon, Rickie Weeks, Matt Moore, Jon Lester

Listen to the Audio.

Mailbag: April 26, 2012

I’m Ray Flowers, co-host of The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Each week I’ll be here answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

I have Neil Walker at 2b & Jemile Weeks at MI. Omar Infante still available on the waiver-wire. Do I grab Omar over NW or JW?
– @DadofReilly

Walker is hitting only .224 with no homers and five RBI through 17 games, a dreadful start for a guy who came into the season with a fair amount of hype. To be fair we’re only talking about 58 at-bats, and Walker does have 12 hits in his last 10 games, but disappointing is certainly a word I would use to describe a guy coming off a 83 RBI, 76 run campaign who has started like this. Weeks has been just as bad hitting a mere .200 with a pathetic .253 OBP, but he does have two homers, three steals and nine runs scored, so he hasn’t been an unmitigated disaster (Week’s brother, Rickie, has been pretty unimpressive since the start of last season. For more see Fact of the Day, April 25thBaseballGuys.com). At the same time, I always felt that Jemile was getting too much love in fantasy circles heading into the 2012 season.

Infante continues to act like he thinks he is Robinson Cano. Through a mere 13 games Infante is hitting .313 with five home runs. Infante is a .275 career hitter, and he hit .305 in 2009 and .321 in 2010, so it’s possible he could bat .300 this season, though I still consider it unlikely. As for the power, there is no, none, nada, chance that the power display will continue. This is not a Jose Bautista breakout we are witnessing. Infante has one season, and he started playing in the majors in 2002, with more than nine homers (he hit 16 back in 2004). Per 162 games in his career, a career that has lasted long enough for him to accrue over 3,200 big league at-bats, Infante has averaged 10 homers. He’s already halfway to that average — in 13 games thanks to a four times increase in his HR/F rate (it’s currently at 20.8 percent versus a career mark of 5.2 percent).

Given how hot he has been, there are very few fantasy baseball leagues out there in which Infante should be on waivers considering he has been the third most productive second base eligible player per contest according to Fleaflicker. That said, he’s got no shot at ll of sustaining his unbelievable start. If you wanted to move on from either of your current players I would suggest dropping Walker because his skill set more closely matches that of Infante (Weeks has game changing speed). I’m not saying I’d rather have Infante for the course of the season over Walker, but there is no denying that right now Infante is the more appealing option.

Drop Bud Norris for Chad Billingsley or Chris Capuano? Or keep the faith?
– @edcolby

Norris is being bailed on by a lot of people who see a 5.84 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP. You should look beyond those numbers to see the following. (1) His 8.03 K/9 rate is impressive. (2) His 2.92 BB/9 mark is a batter below his career level. (3) His 0.97 GB/FB ratio is just off his career rate of 1.02. Still, his HR/FB ratio is way up leading to 1.82 homers per nine innings. That number will not continue (just look at his mark the past two seasons – 1.05 and 1.16). The truth of the matter is that Norris has pitched way better than his fantasy ratios would suggest.

Billingsley came out on fire, and it appears that he is well on his way to putting behind him that down 2011 campaign (11-11, 4.21 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 152 Ks). The biggest key for Billingsley in the early going, the main reason he has a 3.04 ERA and 0.93 WHIP through four starts, is the fact that he just isn’t beating himself. A guy who walks about 3.9 batters per nine innings for his career, that mark currently sits at 1.90. Guys just don’t drop two batters off their BB/9 mark after being at another level for five years, but it’s still encouraging to see him throwing more strikes. At the same time, Billingsley’s current 7.23 K/9 mark would actually be a six year low, so maybe he’s changed his approach a wee bit. It’s also a pretty good bet that Chad won’t be able to keep batters to a .195 average (.249 for his career) once the innings start to pile up.

Capuano is slowly starting to get some love in the fantasy game. A huge injury risk since the virtually the day he was drafted, here are Capuano’s innings pitched totals the past five years: 150, zero, zero, 66 and 186. Yeah, he’s one risky cat to own. Capuano does have solid K potential (7.83 per nine this year, 8.13 last season), pitches in a solid pitchers park in Los Angeles (he also gets to make starts in pitcher havens such as San Diego and San Francisco), and he’s a cheap option that is likely still on many a waiver-wire even with his solid start (2-0, 3.52 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 20 Ks in 23 IP).

I’m taking Billingsley knowing full well that he has no chance of keeping up his current pace. So why suggest adding the Dodgers’ righty then? Consistency (something Capuano certainly can’t offer). Billingsley takes the ball every five days and gives his team a chance to win more times than not. Norris has a “bigger” arm, but he’s also inconsistent and pitches for a team that might struggle to provide him with enough run support for him to reach double-digits in victories.

Should I drop Kelly Johnson to sign Jose Altuve?
– @theYankeeHajny

Johnson hit .222 last year and has started out this year with a .231 average through 17 games so I get the concern. At the same time, Johnson has hit 20 homers with 75 runs scored and 13 steals each of the past two years. Those aren’t fantastic numbers but they are still numbers that only one second sacker have reached each of the past two years. A guy like that, even with a potential batting average deficiency, shouldn’t be given up on lightly (it should be pointed out that Johnson does have a .259 career average and that he hit .284 as recently as 2010).

Altuve has been hot with the twig hitting .377 through 69 at-bats. However, let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves. First, Altuve isn’t going to hit the ball into the seats (three homers in 290 career at-bats), which also will likely lead to a poor RBI total for an every week starter in most mixed leagues. Second, though speedy, he’s only had one effort of 30 steals and he has 11 in 75 big league games. He could easily steal 20 bases this year, he already has four, but his not going to light up the steals category. Third, and I hate to break it to you all, but he’s not a great hitter. Having completely skipped Triple-A, Altuve has only 290 at-bats above Double-A, and that concerns me a bit given that he isn’t exactly the most patient hitter in the world, and that could drain his batting average a bit when he gets into a funk. It’s also a pretty fair guess that his current .431 BABIP will likely regress by a .100 or so points, and that will cause his batting average to dip accordingly.

Give me Johnson over the slap it and run Altuve, but make sure you have other hitters on your club who can cover the poor average you are likely to receive from Johnson.

I trade Adrian Gonzalez and Nelson Cruz for Albert Pujols and Hanley Ramirez. Do it?
– @bearnvegas

Everyone, let’s stop the panic with Pujols. Some facts. In every season of his career he’s finished the year hitting at least .299 with 34 homers, 99 RBI and 99 runs scored. Right now he’s hitting .222-0-4-6. Assuming he reaches his “worst” totals, numbers he has reached in each of the past 11 seasons, that means from this point forward that he is going to blast 34 homer with 94 RBI and 93 runs scored. And those numbers would merely equal his career worsts. As for the batting average, assuming 574 at-bats (his seasonal average the first nine years), Pujols would hit .311 the rest of the season. Despite the slow start, I think all of those targets are fair which leads me to the position that I would still prefer Pujols to AGone (.303-2-13-9).

Cruz can be a beast, but he’s always seemingly hurt (the last three seasons he has averaged just 120 games a season which dings his value substantially). He’s also hit under .265 in two of his last three seasons. There are also questions about just how much running he will be allowed to do given his continued issues with his wheels (he’s stolen 10 bases in his last 143 games after stealing 37 bases in 2009-10). Hanley is hitting just .238, and coming off shoulder surgery, but he qualifies at shortstop and second base, and that’s huge. He’s also gone deep four times while stealing four bases, a pace that would lead to a 35/35 season if he were to maintain it (obviously that’s doubtful).

Get Pujols and HanRam. AGone and Cruz should not be dealt to anyone lightly, but this is a pretty impressive return.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday.