Slippers, Spirits & Success

No real preamble today, I’m just going to get to giving some of my thoughts on the world o’ baseball.

Jason Bay was finally hitting with a .317 mark, a .969 OPS and 13 RBI through 18 games in September. Of course, he’s now missed three games in a row with the flu. He’s no Justin Morneau, but it looks like Bay’s skills just disappeared, despite his nice three week run.

Lance Berkman has hit only seven homers with 28 RBI over his last 56 games, but on the year he is batting .300 with 31 homers, 91 RBI a .412 OBP and a .967 OPS, a rather phenomenal campaign from a guy who pretty much everyone thought was washed up. It’s being reported that he’s agreed to a one year deal worth $12 million to play with the Cardinals next season. I think it’s a fair deal for both sides, the Cardinals can’t risk losing Albert Pujols next year and not having someone who can hit in the middle of the lineup, but I think they’d be fooling themselves if their expectations were for Berkman to repeat this years effort next season.

Am I the only one that thinks that working a job that you can wear slippers to is about as good as it gets?

Vladimir Guerrero has long been on of my favorite players (perhaps it goes back to the days that he was on my minor league taxi squad). I even have a Vlad G. Montreal Expos jersey in my closet (you’re jealous aren’t you?). This season hasn’t gone as planned for Vlad, but that doesn’t mean that he is ready to hang up his cleats. In fact, he wants to play a couple of more seasons. “I feel I can play two or three more years,” he said. “And I just need to work a little harder this offseason when I go to the Dominican and see what happens.” Guerrero is three hits behind Julio Franco for the most hits every by a Dominican born player, he has 2,583. He’s also on quite a tear right now hitting .400 over his last 16 games to push his average up to .292. If he can get it to .300 it would be the 14th time in 15 seasons he hit that mark. However, with only 13 homers, this will be the first time in his career that he’s had 400 at-bats and failed to go deep 27 times.

The Marlins have placed closer Leo Nunez on the restricted list for “undisclosed reasons” (he has already  headed back to the Dominican Republic, so his 2011 season is over). Nunez will finish the year with middling ratios (4.06 ERA, 1.21 WHIP), but he did produce 36 saves in 42 chances. Edward Mujica might get a look in the ninth, after all he’s been great this year with a 0.97 WHIP and 4.69 K/BB ratio, but I would pick up Steve Cishek if I was looking for a few cheap saves.

I was watching Supernatural the other night and I noticed that Genevieve Courtese had a recurring role (OK, I’m a bit behind with the series – I’m only working on season IV right now). I admit it, I’m such a sucker for brunettes.

Ben Revere is hitting .263, has no homer,s sports a terrible .310 OBP and has a sickly .297 SLG (how awful is that?). So why am I wasting any time writing about him? His recent play of course. Over the last eight games Ben has produced 15 hits, including one in each outing, while he’s also swiped seven bags. That’s the type of a waiver-wire pickup that can win you your league. Reverse certainly has a lot of limitations on offense, but his late season push will certainly have him in the mix for a substantial role with the Twins next season.

Iwasn’t a big believer when the Rangers decided to move C.J. Wilson from the pen to the rotation. Consider my opinion to be in error. Wilson went 15-8 with a 3.35 ERA last year, and he’s been slightly better this year going 16-7 with a 2.97 ERA. He’s also upped his K mark this season to 8.38 per nine which has resulted in 206 punchouts. That dude is gonna get straight paid in the free agent market this offseason.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: September 21, 2011

There are only days left in the 2011 fantasy baseball season. With that fact, let’s look forward to 2012 with today’s mailbag piece from questions that were submitted at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Is Melky Cabrera a top-20 OF going into 2012 season and is he worthy of a keeper spot in 16 team league (keeping eight)?
– @JakobMD

This will likely be a hot button question for many heading into 2012, so why not address it in 2011.

Coming into the 2011 season, Cabrera was one of those guys that you weren’t overly happy to have as your fourth or fifth outfielder in a 12 team mixed leagues. He wasn’t going to kill you you any category, but he also wasn’t going to a big help. In fact, the best 5×5 numbers that he posted from 2005-10 would lead you to a season of .280-13-73-75-13. Again, those aren’t horrible numbers, but nothing in that line really pops. In addition, his slash line of .267/.328/.379 from 2005-10 was actually worse than the league average of .269/.337/.425. He just wasn’t anything other than average.

This year that’s changed. Cabrera is two homers away from going 20/20, and he’s also hitting a career best .305. Mind you, he’d only hit better than .275 once, and had never hit 15 homers or stolen 15 bases in a season. One of the reasons for that counting category growth is that he’s posted a whopping 686 plate appearances, 158 more than he averaged from 2005-10. When a guy racks up 700 plate appearances he’s going to have solid counting numbers.

The real question I have is has he shown any skills growth? Let’s take a look.

This year his line drive rate is 20.5 percent. His career mark is 19.4 percent.
This year his ground ball rate is 47.1 percent. His career mark is 48.7 percent.
This year his fly ball rate is 32.4 percent. His career mark is 31.9 percent.

Nothing has changed there.

This year his walk rate is 4.8 percent. Not only is that well below his career rate of 7.4 percent, it’s also a career worst.

This year his K-rate is 13.3 percent. Not only is that worse than his career mark of 12.0, it’s also a career worst.

Those are not changes for the good.

This year Cabrera has a BABIP mark of .330. The owner of a career mark of .298, Cabrera’s BABIP has been under that .298 mark in each of his previous four seasons.

This year his HR/F ratio is 10.2 percent. That’s certainly not a crazy number, but it’s 40 percent higher than his 7.0 career rate. This will also mark only the second season of his career with a mark above his 7.0 percent career rate.

So what does all of that mean? It means that the reason that Cabrera has been so impressive this year is a little luck (BABIP, HR/F) and a big time result of all of his plate appearances. Throw in a declining walk rate and a rising K-rate, and the smart money would be on Cabrera failing to duplicate his 2011 efforts next season. Given that, I simply cannot suggest to anyone that Cabrera has a legitimate shot at being a top-20 outfielder in 2012, but that doesn’t mean he shouldn’t be kept if 128 players are being protected in your league.

Thanks for the great advice and info. Came in 2nd in my 12T H2H league. Quick Q: Why do you prefer roto over H2H?
– @samuelrsantana

There are so many reasons why baseball should be rotisserie over head to head (H2H), let me count the ways.

(1) Baseball is a marathon with 162 games. H2H turns that marathon into a sprint. If you’re looking for the fantasy game to somewhat approximate the on field product, then the fantasy game should operate as a mirror image of that actual game. In baseball that means you should play a season of 1-162 games played, not some artificially contrived session of a weekly match up. Let me give you a concrete example of why this is in point #2.

(2) We all know that Albert Pujols will hit .300-30-100 (he’s on the cusp of doing it for the 11th straight season to start his career). However, we really have no idea when he will go deep, when he will produce hits, and when he will knock runners in. If you’re playing in a H2H match up what happens if Pujols hits .450 with three homers and 10 RBI? You’ll likely win that week. What happens though if he hits .150 with no homers and no RBI the following week? You would likely loose that week. Still, if Pujols followed this path, alternating greatness with putrid work, he’d end the year batting .300 with something like 39 homers and 130 RBI. That’s a phenomenal season, right? However, in H2H he’d be a killer to your club in those 13 weeks that he disappeared. Baseball is about consistency and working through the grind as much as anything. When you play H2H you remove that aspect of the game completely.

(3) Would you ever draft Gavin Floyd over Dan Haren? That’s like saying you would prefer to cuddle up with Cate Blanchett over Brooklyn Decker? However, there are scenarios where you would end up starting Floyd over Haren simply because you’re looking at one week segments (there is no scenario in which Cate would be the choice over Brooklyn). What if Haren was facing the Yankees and Floyd was pitching in Seattle and Oakland – would you start Floyd because he was a two start pitcher on the road, where he has success, in two parks that favor the hurler? Even worse, would you start a guy like Rick Porcello or Luke Hochevar over Haren if they had two starts? The answer is you might, and we’ve all made that decision at one point or another. However, does this make any sense? Of course it doesn’t.  We’re sometimes “forced” to go with an inferior pitcher merely because we need the starts to keep up with our opponent in the H2H format. In this instance we’re not rewarding the fantasy owner who rostered the players with the best skill, we’re merely rewarding those that were first two the waiver-wire to add a 2-start pitcher. There isn’t any skill in that.

I’m just going to say it: H2H has infected baseball because of it’s proliferation in fantasy football. It’s one of the worst trends to hit fantasy baseball – ever. If you want to go soft and set your lineup once a week, I can live with that. However, if you want to make baseball a one week match up against an opponent you’re bastardizing the game of baseball completely.

There, I said it.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87.

Around the Horn: September 7, 2011

(1)  Albert Pujols on cusp of history – yet again.

(2) Stephen Strasburg phenomenal in his first start with Nats.

(3) V-Mart mighty impressive, minus the homers.

(4) Ian Kinsler trying to do something only one other 2B has ever done.

(5) Alex Rios – worth a play in the month of September?

By Ray Flowers

Did You Know?

I bet you thought you knew it all. Even I don’t know it all. Today, let’s venture into the world of the unknown to find out some pretty cool factoids.

Did you know… that Hiroki Kuroda has a 2.88 ERA, better than Matt Cain (3.00), Ian Kennedy (3.12) and Tim Hudson (3.18) to name a few? So why does Kuroda get no respect? His record. He’s only 8-14 on the year, the 14 loses are tied for the NL lead with J.A. Happ. Still, amongst pitchers who have thrown at least 300 innings since the start of last season Kuroda’s 3.17 ERA is 14th best in baseball ahead of a slew of big arms like David Price (3.18), Jon Lester (3.28), Tommy Hanson (3.44) and Dan Haren (3.49). Maybe you should give Kuroda a look if you need a boost off the wire if your league mates are down on him cause of that win-loss record.

Did you know… that if we remove the week of death when Brandon League lost four games and had three blown saves, that his ERA would be 2.03? Or how about that his WHIP would drop to 0.79. It’s not like his season long numbers are bad (2.85 and 0.99), but think about how amazing they would look if he hadn’t forgotten how to pitch for a week. As it is he has racked up 29 saves leaving him one from becoming just the third man in the AL to hit that total (Mariano Rivera has 30 while Jose Valverde has 35 in 35 chances).

Did you know… that Justin Morneau is back on the field? I’m sure you did, but before you get all pumped up because he had a nice run over a week in the minors, realize that the guy is hitting .222 with a .611 OPS. Those are roughly the numbers of Lyle Overbay who is hitting .227 with a .648 OPS. Think about that. Lyle Overbay who was cut loose by the Pirates of all teams (he’s now with the D’backs), has a better average and OPS than Justin Morneau.

Did you know… that despite struggles and injuries, that Albert Pujols is still on pace for 39 bombs, 101 RBI and 108 runs scored? As a result of a rescent surger, Pujols has 29 homers, the most amongst all first basemen in the National League (the only first sacker with more is Mark Teixeira of the Yankees – he has 32). Pujols has also upped his average to .288 giving him a legit shot to finish the year with a .300-30-100 line for the 11th straight season. He already holds the all-time record with 10-straight such seasons.

Did you know… over the last three weeks the best starting pitcher in baseball has been Ervin Santana. He has gone 4-0 with a 0.76 ERA and 0.79 WHIP? He’s also posted a 5.00 K/BB ratio for the Angels during that time. This has been key. He just isn’t walking anyone with a total of 11 walks over his last eight trips to the hill. Moreover, he’s emerged with a “W” in each of his last five outings and in four of his last five trips to the hill he has gone at least 8.1 innings. He’s also allowed one or zero earned runs in each of his last five outings and six of his last eight trips to the mound. He’s as locked in as a pitcher can get.

Did you know… over his last 796 big league at-bats that Grady Sizemore is hitting .239? He was never a big average type of guy, but his career mark is still .270, well ahead of his pace from the past three years (moreover, Sizemore hit .279 from 2004-2008 before his recent work dragged down his career numbers). A four time 20 steal man, he swiped a career best 38 bases in 2008, Sizemore has stolen 17 bases over his last 200 games. Over his last 200 games he’s also gone deep only 28 times. From 2006-08 he averaged 28 homers a season. Face it, his body may just not be capable of handling the pounding of playing baseball on a daily basis.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: August 3rd, 2011

(1) Albert Pujols to play through hand injury.

(2) Troy Tulowitzki to play through pinkie injury.

(3) Stephen Strasburg – what should you expect from him?

(4) Jason Heyward still on bench.

(5) Paul Goldschmidt hits first big league homer.

(6) Yunieksy Bentancourt on fire – what?

(7) Josh Tomlin working on historic run.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: June 21, 2011

photo © 2008 Rich Anderson | more info (via: Wylio)

Here are the answers to some of the questions that I recently received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

If you had to pick one would you choose Chris Carpenter or Tim Hudson?
– @we3kings00

Carpenter has frustrated everyone who owns him. Four times in his past 10 starts he has allowed at least 10 hits, and five times in that stretch at least four earned runs have crossed the plate leading to a 4.47 ERA and 1.39 WHIP on the year. However, I still see positives here, and I was writing about them all the way back on May 12th in Buy or Sell – NL Version. Here is why I’m still bullish on Carpenter.

(1) His K/9 rate is 7.11. That would be a five year high.

(2) His fastball velocity is 92.3 mph, higher than the 91.4 from 2010 and better than his career 91.6 mph mark. It doesn’t seem like he is injured.

(3) His BB/9 rate is 2.19, nearly a half a batter below his career 2.59 mark. As a result, his K/BB ratio is 3.25 which would be his second best mark in five years.

(4) His HR/9 mark is 0.91 and his HR/F mark 10.1. His career rates are 0.92 and 10.3.

(5) His xFIP is 3.34 and his career mark is 3.41.

So why is he struggling? He’s currently allowing his fewest grounders since 2002 leading to a 1.44 GB/FB ratio that is well below his 1.78 career mark. He’s also been battered to the tune of a 23.4 percent line drive rate and a .327 BABIP. Given that Carpenter owns a 19.1 career line drive rate and a .297 BABIP, it would seem like he’s probably due some regression. Also, his current left on base percentage of 67.5 percent would be his first time under 71.7 percent since 2000 (minus his six inning 2007 season).

Hudson twirled a gem Monday to even his record at 6-6. People get so fixated on one thing at times, and with Hudson it was his 4.08 ERA heading into the outing. With eight shutout innings that mark has now dipped to 3.73. Hudson also has a superb 1.09 WHIP. Is that surprising? Hardly, not when you consider that Hudson has a 3.43 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in his career. If we remove his 2009 season when he hurled only 42.1 innings because of injury, here is what we find.

Hudson has won at least 11 games in each of his 11 full seasons.

Hudson has posted an ERA over 4.00 just twice in 11 years. Nine times that mark has been under 3.65.

Hudson has posted a WHIP below 1.27 eight times.

Hudson is as consistent as any hurler in the game over the past decade plus, and his only real failing is that he doesn’t strike batters out (he’s punched out more than six batters per nine only once in seven years).

Both pitchers are solid veteran arms that should have plenty of value the rest of the way. Hudson might be the “safer” option, but I’d still choose Carpenter who offers more upside in the strikeout category, not to mention that I think his ratios also have a good shot at improving the ROTW.

Should I deal Stephen Drew and Jordan Walden to get Hanley Ramirez?
– @noneedforreason

What do you do with an injured player? It’s a question that is at the fore of everyone’s minds. Think of it. Of the top-25 players coming into the year, here are the guys who have been on the DL: Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, Chase Utley, Carl Crawford, David Wright, Nelson Cruz, Josh Hamilton, Evan Longoria, Ryan Zimmerman and Hanley Ramirez. It’s been simply amazing.

Ramirez is back for the Marlins, but he’s still not playing day games after night games because of his wonky back, and he’s also been dropped to sixth in the batting order. It really does no good to analyze his work to this point since it’s so clearly been inferior to his career levels in pretty much every conceivable way. With his continued struggles to get healthy, it’s a fair question to ask if he will be able to flash his elite skills this season, and even if he does, how long will it take him to get there?

I dislike making deals in which I give away the “best” player in the group. I also dislike making deals in which I give up an elite player. However, at this point, I wouldn’t look down my nose at someone who took Drew and Walden for Hanley, especially if that club could use help in the bullpen. I’d like to see if I could get more because HanRam is still an elite talent, but I would understand why someone would make a move. Given that, I’d probably end up withdrawing this offer leaving Hanley on the other squad.

Jon Jay looks like he’s gonna play every, so Jay or Angel Pagan as 4th outfielder until Albert Pujols gets back?
– @metsthoughts

Jay has hit .304 with eight homer, 41 RBI, 64 runs scored and seven steals in 450 big league at-bats. Clearly he has the bat to garner significant work in the big leagues. However, he’s never been a big homer bat, his high was 12 in 2008, and that will not change if he continues to operate with a 1.97 GB/FB ratio which is his career mark (that number is through the roof this season at 3.21). While he will steal the odd base, Jay’s not likely to challenge Vince Coleman’s team records for thefts.

Pagan snuck into the top-50 overall last year with a wonderful 5×5 line of .290-11-69-80-37. He’s not going to match those totals this season after a slow, injury filled start, but he’s cranked things up in June hitting .297 with 11 RBI and five steals, production that mirrors his level from last season. He’s done a great job controlling the strike zone with three more walks than punchouts, and he only figures to see his totals improve when the Mets get back David Wright and Ike Davis from injury.

I’d take Pagan. Neither player will kill you in average, and neither has more than moderate power either, but Pagan has the wheels to easily outdistance himself from Jay.

Everyone in those 10 team mixed leagues with three starting OFs and no MI or CI are killing me.
– @BaseballGuys

Obviously this isn’t a question, and I’m quoting myself (how narcissistic is that?). Still, I just had to vent a bit. I get questions about 15 team leagues, dynasty leagues, NL-only leagues that also use the AL central (that’s not made up) etc. However, the one that really gets me is when people are asking for advice for their 10 team mixed league that starts only three outfielders and does not use middle or corner infielders. I addressed this situation recently in Player Pools where I tried to explain why 10 team mixed leagues are just too shallow.

And finally, I know it’s not a question, but I thought you would all enjoy the sentiment from @justintime56 who had an interesting take on the Albert Pujols injury…

I blame La Russa for Pujols’ injury. Should have played him @ 3B… he only needed one more start at third for eligibility.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 210 and XM 87.

Is Anyone Listening?

photo © 2005 Dave Herholz | more info (via: Wylio)

Albert Pujols is down with an injury and likely to miss 4-6 weeks IF he heals on schedule and IF the Cardinals are being honest about his injury (they’ve grown increasingly less trustworthy in their reporting of injuries). The Cardinals are hosed, Pujols could have cost himself money on the market (I doubt that), and his fantasy owners are totally jammed up. Sad situation all around. Glad I didn’t just swing a huge deal to add Pujols in the Sirius/XM Experts League two weeks ago. Whoops, I did.

Did you give up on Mark Reynolds despite my telling you not to? Reynolds has been hot in June hitting .300 with six homers and 12 RBIs while he’s racked up an ultra impressive 1.155 OPS. Yes he’s still hitting just .217, but his recent run of offensive production has pushed his pace up to 30 homers, 85 RBI and 83 runs scored. Care to guess what his average numbers where the last three years? How about 35 homers, 95 RBI and 88 runs. Pretty darn close wouldn’t you say?

Did you give up on Brandon League during what could have been the worst run of pitching by any reliever in baseball history (from May 8th to May 13th he appeared in four games picking up four loses and three blown saves while allowing 10 earned runs in 2.2 innings)? League hasn’t allowed an earned run since May 13th to drop his ERA back down to 3.90. His WHIP currently sits at 1.07, and if you remove that one week of pitching he would be 20-for-20 in save conversions and his ERA would be 0.99.

The date was October 28th, 2010. That day I penned an article titled Pitchers: Not as Bad as You Thought. In that piece I suggested four names who could return a significant profit in 2011 because their apparently poor work in 2010 would lead to them being undervalued on draft day. Here are the four names that I discussed with a little diddy on how each is currently performing.

Scott Baker (5-4, 3.24 ERA, 88 Ks, 1.17 WHIP in 91.2 IP)
He’s allowed one run over his last two starts, has won each of his last three outings to improve to 5-4, and his ratios this season are outstanding. Baker also has a career best 8.64 K/9 mark and has been everything I hoped he would bee when I commented on how valuable he could be eight months ago. Did you listen? Judging by how many queries I received about Baker the past two weeks I’m gonna have to say very few did.

James Shields (7-4, 2.40 ERA, 108 Ks, 1.00 HWIP in 112.2 IP)
Shields is third in the AL in ERA and 6th in WHIP, and he’s also fourth in the league in innings pitched while his five complete games and three shutouts are the most in baseball. You remember back in March when he was listed 24th amongst starting pitchers in my Top-100 Starting Pitchers? Do you remember how you sent me emails and tweets about how stupid I was?

Chris Narveson (4-4, 4.48 ERA, 70 Ks, 1.39 WHIP over 78.1 IP)
I’m not going to admit total failure here, but he’s not been as good as I hoped. Still, he does have his use as his K/9 rate of 8.04 is solid while his 1.48 GB/FB ratio is encouraging. Hell, what are you complaining about since you drafted Narveson in the 27th round in your mixed league.

A.J. Burnett (7-5, 4.05 ERA, 76 Ks, 1.22 WHIP in 93.1 IP)
Direct hit yet again. Burnett is on pace to better his numbers from last season, some substantially. After all he was 10-15 with a 5.26 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in 2010. Did you take a chance on him late in drafts cause of my recommendation or simply because he pitches for the Yankees? It’s a concern that his K/9 rate is just 7.33, that’s nearly a full batter below his career rate, but at least it’s better than the 6.99 mark he posted last season.

By Ray Flowers

Touching the Bases

photo © 2011 Keith Allison | more info (via: Wylio)

Nick Blackburn has made nine starts this year. Though he has a 3.40 ERA, his WHIP is a pedestrian 1.40. However, what’s more interesting is that he has allowed exactly five earned runs in three starts while in his other six outings he has yet to allow more than two earned runs. In fact, in five of his nine starts on the year he has allowed zero or one earned run.

I talk about skills versus role all the time. I wish the Dodgers were listening. With Vicente Padilla on the shelf, it looks like Matt Guerrier is going to get first crack at the 9th inning for the club. MG is a perfectly solid bullpen arm, there is no disputing his track record there, but really Dodgers? Has anyone ever looked at MG and said ‘now there’s a closer’? Not once. Though his K-rate is up to 7.33 – he owns a career mark of just 5.98 – he’s also walking batters at the second worst rate of his career at 3.86. He just doesn’t have the kind of stuff you look for to close out games. Kenley Jansen has that stuff – and then some. In 44.1 innings in the bigs Jansen has a K/9 rate of 14.21, a simply amazing mark. Yes he has trouble throwing strikes, he’s walked 5.71 batters per nine on the year, but his 2.64 K/BB ratio is still light years ahead of the 1.90 mark from MG this season. I understand the Dodgers reluctance to give Jansen 9th inning work, but he’s still the arm I want to add.

Ramon Hernandez lost his 11 game hitting streak Thursday night. On the year he is hitting .337 though, so don’t feel too sorry for him. His career mark by the way is .266.

I posed this question on Twitter, and the results were overwhelmingly in favor of the dark haired beauty. If you had your choice, and by “you” I mean me when I make it big and head to Hollywood, would you rather date Mila Kunis or Natalie Portman?

Howie Kendrick might miss a couple of games with a tender hamstring, but he has been a force all season long for the Angels. Kendrick, who leads the AL with 19 multi-hit games on the year, is hitting .322 with seven homers, 18 RBI and four steals. He is the only second baseman in baseball to have reached all four of those marks. Do you all remember back in March when I had Kendrick ranked as my 68th best player in my Top-300? I remember quite a few people saying I was an idiot. Well, so far so good. Of course, there is always the chance that he ends up no the DL as his history would suggest, but I’m keeping the faith with the second baseman/first baseman/outfielder (this season he has appeared in 30 games at second, 12 at first and nine in the outfield).

Albert Pujols has gone 91 at-bats with a home run. Erick Aybar hit one 15 at-bats ago. In 10 seasons Pujols has never failed to hit at least 32 homers. Will this be the first year that he fails to hit 30 (he has seven in 45 games)?

Everyone loves to hate on B.J. Upton. Don’t get me wrong I get it, the guy is a total flake, fails to hustle at times, and clearly has a .10 cent head, but man does the guy have skills. After a so-so start in April, he has exploded in May for a .295 average, four homers, 16 RBI and a .918 OPS. Unfortunately he has stolen only one base on the month, but he is still well on pace to go 25/25 this year, and there just aren’t that many guys in the game who can do that.

By Ray Flowers

April Fool’s Day

It’s my party and I’ll cry if I want to.

It’s my birthday and I’ll drink if I want to.

Yeah, it’s my birthday, and that’s no joke despite the fact that it’s April Fool’s Day. Obviously I’m feeling a bit frisky given today given the enormity of the day, so I’m just going to let it fly today and leave it up to you to determine when I’m stating a fact or exaggerating for effect.

John Axford had a WHIP of 1.92 this spring, and things didn’t get much better on opening day as he allowed a sure win to slip through the Brewers’ hands as he allowed a two out, three run homer to Ramon Hernandez in the 9th inning leading to the Reds 7-6 comeback victory. I wouldn’t be at all shocked if Axford figured out what ails him as he brings the heat and induces a lot of grounders, but if he continues to struggle Takashi Saito would seem like a pretty fair bet to pick up some save chances. Saito might be 40 years old, but look at his career numbers – 2.83 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 11.00 K/9 and a 3.89 K/BB ratio. Those are pretty phenomenal ratios are they not?

Ryan Franklin is awful. He allowed the game to slip away in the 9th inning on a 417 foot bomb to dead center by Cameron Maybin. It’s only one game, but this is exactly why rostering a power arm like that of Matt Thornton over Franklin makes all the sense in the world. As for Maybin he looked fantastic. In addition to the bomb to dead center field he also had a single and made a great diving play on defense. Emblematic of his time in the majors though, he was removed from the game after the second hit after coming up lame. Reports are that it was just a cramp, so hopefully he’ll be able to go back to being the most dynamic force in the National League in the Padres next game.

Alex Gordon had a day to remember on opening day. He missed a 3-run homer by a few feet when his deep shot ended up on the wrong side of the foul pole and he struck out three times while going 0-for-5 while leaving five batters on base. I’m cheering for the guy, but the Royals are doing him no favors but putting him in the third hole in the order. Are they trying to put so much pressure on him that he fails yet again? I know he’s been swinging a good bat, but why not bat him 7th, let him get some confidence going in regular season games, and then move him up the order is his production warrants it. Of course, that makes far too much sense for a team that, and I’m not kidding, has no idea how to put together a major league batting order. Melky Cabrera was hitting second, a great spot for a guy with a career .328 OBP and only moderate speed.

Jeff Mathis had a huge opening day for the Angels. Not only did he guide a staff to a victory, 4-2 over the Royals, he also did some serous bashing at the dish. Mathis had two hits, a homer and a double, in the best offensive game of his life going back to t-ball when he was five years old. That’s only a slight exaggeration. I mean seriously, the guy had six games of two hits or more last year and he appeared in 68 contests. How bad a hitter is he? In a career of 954 at-bats prior to opening day he had hit .195 with a .265 OBP and a .311 SLG. For those of you without a calculator handing that means his OPS of .576 is only .295 points behind the leading OPS mark posted by a catcher last season (Joe Mauer .871). I mean my goodness. Mathis’ career SLG is .311. His old mate behind the dish, Mike Napoli, has a career OBP of .346.

Albert Pujols is awful. He went 0-for-5 with three double-plays to become the first player in big league history to do that on opening day. Hopefully you didn’t draft him first overall because this was an absolutely horrible performance and one that is likely to be indicative of his yearlong struggles.

Happy April Fool’s Day.

By Ray Flowers

Who is #3?

Photo by Benjamin Kabek

There is pretty much a consensus this year that Albert Pujols should go off the board first overall, and Hanley Ramirez seems to be locked in as the #2 selection in most peoples minds. After that, let the games begin.

Some think it should be Miguel Cabrera. He worries me because of his off the field issues.

Some think it should be Troy Tulowitzki because of his massive production from a scarce position (shortstop). I’m troubled by the fact that he has played less than 125 games in two of the past three years.

Some say Carlos Gonzalez. The guy hit .289 with eight homers on the road last year and he’s only had one season of significance in the big leagues.

Some say Evan Longoria. I think he’s the top third baseman this year, but I don’t think third base is as shallow as some think (not if guys like Mark Reynolds and Pablo Sandoval are still on the board after 125 names have been called out).

What about Joey Votto or Robinson Cano? Nope.

Roy Halladay? Don’t get crazy on me.

I think the clear option at #3 overall is Ryan Braun, a guy who has an ADP of about nine. Here is my argument for why Braun should be #3 (in fact, I’ll go you one further and say that I think Carl Crawford should be taken  4th overall – see the Top-300 for 2011).

THE CASE FOR BRAUN

(1) Consistency
In four big league seasons, Braun has never hit less than .285.
He has never hit fewer than 25 homers.
He has never had fewer than 97 RBI.
He has never scored less than 91 runs.
He has never stolen less than 14 bases.

That means in four seasons in the majors Braun has never produced a batting line of less than .285-25-97-91-14. Last year there were only four men in all of baseball who hit all of the marks (Braun, Pujols, Votto and CarGo), and those are the four year lows for Braun.

(2) Across the Board production
I went through the numbers above but just so it registers like it should…

Over the past four years there have been only 16 seasons of .285-25-97-91-14. Braun has fully a quarter of them meaning every other player in baseball has a grand total of 12 such seasons, or on average just three a year. Moreover, only three other men in the game have had two such seasons the past four years: Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez and David Wright.

(3) Health
Braun played only 113 games as a rookie, but that was because he was called up during the season from the minors. The past three years he has dealt with a myriad of bumps and bruises, but each of those years he has appeared in at least 151 games. The last three years only 12 players have appeared in at least 151 games each campaign. It doesn’t matter how great you are, if you aren’t on the field your overall production just won’t stack up the elites of the game.

(4) Upside
Braun has just under four full seasons in the big leagues and he is only 27 years old. I don’t buy into the “27 year old breakout” hype, but the fact is that Braun could easily still have more to give at the dish. That is particularly intriguing given that his best 5×5 numbers thus far would result in a 5×5 effort of .324-37-114-113-20. Do you know how many such seasons have been produced in the 20th century? The answer is none. Moreover, over the last twenty years those five marks have only been reached in one season on three occasions: Ellis Burks (1996), Larry Walker (1997) and Barry Bonds (1993).

You could raise arguments such as position scarcity and the fact that Braun has seen his ground ball rate rise substantially the past two years as reasons to pass on Braun at the number three overall spot, but to me it’s pretty clear that he would seem to have the least risk of any of the players who are consistently going in the top-10 after Pujols and Hanley are off the board. In my mind that is a huge factor that should be taken into consideration when you think about who you are going to take if you have the #3 spot on draft day.

By Ray Flowers