2012 Positional Review – Catchers

Now that the 2012 season is over, it’s time to review how my predictions went for each position in fantasy baseball. To that end, I will review my top-10 at each position and give a brief rundown on how each of the ten performed. I’ll also list which player was a “Hit” (someone who lived up to expectations) as well as a “Miss” (the player who simply failed to impress).

Note: All of these rankings are taken from the 2012 BASEBALLGUYS DRAFT GUIDE

For more on the Draft Guide you can click on the link.

For an update on what you missed in the Draft Guide, click on the link.

2012 CATCHER Top-10

1 Carlos Santana
2 Mike Napoli
3 Matt Wieters
4 Brian McCann
5 Joe Mauer
6 Miguel Montero
7 Buster Posey
8 Alex Avila
9 Yadier Molina
10 J.P. Arencebia

Santana had a monster second half (.281-13-46-41 in 74 games) that helped him to a strong season in the counting categories (18 HRs, 76 RBIs, 72 runs) even if his batting average of .252 was disappointing. He was the only AL catcher to go 15-75-70.

Napoli had 24 homers exactly matching his 2008-11 average. Too bad he also hit a career worst .227 with his lowest RBI total in three years (56 after years of 68 and 75).

Wieters had an impressive season with 23 homers and 83 RBIs. He was the only catcher in the AL go go 20-80. Like Santana above though, he failed to live up to expectations in the batting average category at .249.

McCann recorded 20 homers for the fifth straight year and six time in seven seasons, but that was his only highlight. He failed to record 70 RBIs, with 67, for the first time ever (not counting his 180 at-bat first season). He scored 44 runs, his first time under 50 ever (other than his abbreviated first season). He hit a career worst .230, only .049 points below his career average. Obviously his injured shoulder was a major issue. Hopefully surgery will fix what ails him but he may not be 100 percent by the start of the 2013 season.

Mauer, in retrospect, should have been ranked higher as he did what he always does. Mauer led all AL catchers in batting (.319) an all catchers in OBP (.416). He was also the only catcher in baseball to score 80 runs (he had 81), he went deep 10 times and drove home an AL position leading 85 runners and stole eight bases for good measure.

Montero started slowly hitting .252 with two homers in his first 41 games, but he closed like gangbusters leading to a second straight season hitting .280 with 15 homers, 85 RBIs and 65 runs scored (.286-15-88-65).

Posey will likely win the NL MVP, but don’t forget that he was coming off a significant leg injury causing everyone to doubt whether or not he would ever return to his previous glory. Boy did he return all right, and then some. Posey led baseball with a .336 batting average while going deep 24 times with 103 RBIs, while he had a .408 OBP an an over the top .956 OPS. He was the most dominating catcher in the game, and if someone tells you otherwise stop talking to them about baseball cause they are a moron.

Avila was a total stinker. He lost 10 homers (down to nine), 34 RBIs (down to 48), 21 runs (down to 42), .042 points in batting average (down to .242) and .155 points in OPS (down to .736). A miserable season that leaves in doubt whether or not he will ever get back to his 2011 levels (.295-19-82-63).

Molina played superb defense, and this season his offense reached never before seen heights with career bests in all the fantasy categories (.322-22-76-65-12). A truly remarkable fantasy season for a player who most had ranked 5-8 spots lower than me.

Arencebia’s season was marred by an injury that limited him to just 347 at-bats, 96 fewer than 2011. He still socked 18 homers with 56 RBIs but he continued to K a ton (108) while never walking (18 free passes) leading to an unacceptable average (.233) and OBP (.275).

Hit: Ryan Doumit (#15), Wilin Rosario (#28)
I singled Doumit and Rosario out as two of my players to target at the position this year after the top-10 were off the board. Boy did they deliver. What did I think that Doumit could do this year? In his Player Profile I wrote the following: “Per 450 at-bats, a total Doumit should reach in 2012 if he can stay healthy, the average Doumit season has produced a 5×5 line of .271-15-61-54-2.” He went .275-18-75-56-0 in 484 at-bats. Rosario led all catchers with 28 homers – in just 396 at-bats. He also knocked in 71 runners and scored 67 times himself in a truly dominating effort that cost you peanuts on draft day.

Miss: Alex Avila

 By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: August23, 2012

Each week I’ll be answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account in my never ending attempt to replace myself by explaining to everyone how I evaluate players thereby making myself obsolete.

Who wins: C.J. Wilson $11, Colby Rasmus $8, Matt Holliday $30, Arod $33, Kyle Seager $6 for Mike Trout $15?
– @BradfordEra

I know what I would do here, but apparently my position on the matter is the exact opposite of what everyone else on Twitter seems to think.

Trout has been phenomenal. He’s currently hitting .343 with 24 homers, 70 RBIs, 97 runs scored and 39 steals in a mere 101 games. Still, as I’ve written time after time, Trout can’t possibly perform at this level year after year. I know, I know, no one agrees with me, in fact people vehemently disagree with me and think he is going to hit .333 with 30 homers and 50 steals every year, but I’m not changing my point of view on the matter. Let’s talk again a year from now. Regardless, Trout will go for three times that $15 cost in many, if not all leagues next year, so he is an amazing value for 2013 at just $15.

Still, I’d take the other side.

Wilson has slumped of late, but he is well on his way to a third straight solid season and the $11 cost for him is reasonable. He’ll go for more than $11 in many mixed leagues next year.

Rasmus has certain holes in his game, and he’s about as inconsistent as they come, but he’s still already posted 20 homers and 66 RBIs this season, and for $8 he’s a solid value who will likely go for twice as much on draft day 2013.

Holliday at $30 is a wee bit steep for some (not this scribe), that is until you look at his production. On pace for another .300-30-100-100 effort, Holliday is about as stable a top level option as there is in the game. He’s a rock. Building around him at $30, there is nothing wrong with that at all.

Arod at $33 – no way you keep him for that. I wouldn’t even keep him for $23. At this point, I may not even keep him at half the cost of his keeper value. Drop Arod after the deal is completed.

Seager for $6 is a nice deal too. He’s only appeared in 14 games at second this year, but that might give him second base eligibility in some leagues. Regardless, he has 13 homers and 68 RBIs in his first full season in the big leagues. He’s a sneaky play that could return twice his draft day cost in value.

I’d do this deal provided that you don’t have to keep Rodriguez (he’d be an anchor at $33), but I could certainly see why someone would want to hold on to Trout since he is a special value.  As great a player as Trout is, the totality of the players you would be keeping, an at a solid cost, would give you a solid foundation to build around. Plus, the money that you would be saving on your keepers, since all but Arod come at a fair price, will afford you the ability to overspend a bit on draft day for a player or two.

Kris Medlen or Matt Harvey?
– @DaReelGiamcarlo

Both these guys are rolling right now.

Medlen has won each of his last three starts, and the last two times he has taken the hill he hasn’t allowed a single run. Going back a bit further, Medlen has allowed a total of three runs in his five starts for the Braves. Three. In those five outings Medlen has a 0.83 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, eight strikeouts per nine innings an a 5.80 K/BB ratio. That’s about as good as you can pitch. Add in an impressive 1.94 GB/FB ratio on the season and you’ve got a fella who is (a) performing at optimal levels and (b) a rate that he can’t possibly sustain.

Harvey has the bigger arm, and he likely has the brighter future. In six starts this season Harvey has 43 punchouts in 36 innings, and that has led to an impressive 10.75 K/9 mark. He’s been walking a few too many batters, but with all those punchouts his 2.87 K/BB ratio is still solid. Harvey has also allowed just two runs while walking three batters and striking out 17 over his last two outings. There’s nothing wrong with Harvey’s performance to this point for the Mets, but there is this – he’s on an innings pitched count. The Mets have professed that they want to keep Harvey in the 165-70 range with innings this season. That makes sense given that he threw 135.1 innings last season, not to mention that the Mets have nothing to play for so there is no need to risk the future. By the way, Harvey has thrown 146 innings thus far.

I’d go with Medlen who is pitching better and doesn’t have an innings pitched count to worry about.

Jonathan Lucroy, Geo Soto, Alex Avila, Josh Donaldson @ catcher next 2 weeks?
– @kevin5464

As we get toward the end of the season, I’ve gotten a few questions like this one with people wanting me to give advice on short-term situations. Here’s the truth everyone – I have no idea. No one does. Simply put, the sample size is just too small. Take this example.

The last two weeks Todd Frazier is hitting .469 with five homers, 13 RBIs, 13 runs and two steals. If you were only looking at two weeks with numbers like that you would have to say he was a better option the next two weeks than Adrian Gonzalez who has really struggled a bit the past two weeks (.217-4-13-5). How many people would prefer Frazier over A-Gone, even in the short-term? Probably not many.

Or how about this. Which player would you rather have based on their August numbers?

.253-2-10 with a .719 OPS
.389-2-10 with a 1.012 OPS

You just chose to keep John Jay (player #2) over Andrew McCutchen.

Two weeks is just too small a time frame to accurately predict how a batter will perform. If you’re gonna try look at things like where will the games be played, how many games will the batter have,  who are the hurlers on the hill that he will be facing, wow has the player performed the past few weeks and what is the players skill set?

Quickly, my thoughts on each guy.

Lucroy is hitting .325 with eight homers and 41 RBIs – in 200 at-bats. That is about as impressive a pace as any catcher could ever hope for (think of it, only 400 at-bats would lead to a .325-16-82 line at that pace). He hasn’t quite been that gutter since he returned from injury, he’s hit. 279 with three homers and 11 RBIs in 21 games, but that’s still solid production for a hitter who is clearly performing over his head.

Soto has six hits in his last four games. He’s also picked up an RBI in 4-straight games. Still, he’s hitting just .208 with a .643 OPS this season, and he hasn’t been much better with the Rangers since he was dealt to the American League (.236 with a .682 OPS over 16 games).

Avila hit .295 with 19 homers and 82 RBIs last year, a simply tremendous effort for a backstop. This year, not so much. Avila is hitting just .250 with seven homers and 35 RBIs. He’s obviously not reaching any of last year’s benchmarks. Avila is hitting .294 with a .390 OBP in August, but he still has only one homer and 15 RBIs since the start of June (47 games).

Donaldson has been killing it with 12 hits in his last six outings as his average has shot up from .167 to .226. He is the definition of a hot player that is an intriguing add if you are looking for a quick boost. Could his addition lead to greatness for the next few weeks? Possibly. But as often happens, by the time you realize a guy is hot, like Donaldson, you’ve missed the best he has to offer. There’s no way he gets 12 hits in his next six outings. Not just that, his overall performance this season has been poor, and that three walk, 31 K effort really makes me nervous.

The best catcher this season has been Lucroy. He’d be my choice to roll with out of this quartet.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 7-10 PM EDT, Monday through Friday.

Around the Horn: June6, 2012

(1) Alex Avila headed to DL with hamstring injury.

(2) Colby Rasmus blows up – can he be trusted?

(3) Andy Pettitte dominating batters. Can it continue?

(4) Carlos Quentin is Babe Ruth?

(5) Huston Street returns to action.

(6) Alfonso Soriano flashing power bat. Did you notice?

(7) What to do with the perpetually disappointing Tim Lincecum?

By Ray Flowers

Did You Know?

Sometimes I like to randomly check in with the baseball cosmos. Today is one of those days. There’s no rhythm or reason to what follows – there’s just a bunch of interest facts strewn about all over the page relating to performances from 2011.

Alex Avila led American League batters, under the age of 26, with an OPS of .895 in 2011 (minimum 502 at-bats). The only other AL bat to reach those requirements who also posted an OPS of .850 was Evan Longoria who finished at exactly .850.

Lance Berkman led the NL last season with 22 homers on the road, one more than his former teammates Albert Pujols.

There were only three outfielders in baseball who hit 10 homers, 10 triples and stole 20 bases. Curtis Granderson was likely and easy call for you, though the other two might be a wee bit tougher. Well, maybe you got Austin Jackson of the Tigers as the second guy, but I’d be willing to bet that the third player’s name is one that you will have to search your memory banks for a long while to find. This youngster had 12 homers, 11 triple and 22 steals. He plays in the American League. Some regard him as the best defensive center fielder in the game. He is Peter Bourjos.

Only four men in baseball have hit .300 with 20 or more homers each of the past three years. Albert Pujols… doesn’t make the list. He hit just .299 last season. The list of four men: Ryan Braun, Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto and… Robinson Cano.

Rajai Davis stole third base 17 times last year, the most in the AL. That’s the same total as Alex Gordon posted last year in 151 games.

I have a crush on Katherine McPhee of Smash. If you click on that link can can’t understand why, I can’t help you.

Sam Fuld stole 20 bases last year, one more than Shane Victorino, Johnny Damon, Ben Zobrist and Jayson Werth. While each of those four batters hit at least 16 homers, Fuld went deep just three times for the Rays.

I love HDTV. It drives home the point that so many “famous” people really aren’t as good looking as you think they are. Makes you feel a little bit better when you look in the mirror.

Yadier Molina hit a career best .305 last season despite the fact that he swung at 40.7 percent of first pitches, the highest mark in the National League. He was the polar opposite of Jamey Carroll who swing at only 6.9 percent of first pitches, the fewest in the NL.

Anibal Sanchez had 202 strikeouts last year. Come on, admit it. You had no idea did you? Were you away that he had more punchouts than Zack Greinke (201), Ian Kennedy (198), Jered Weaver (198), Gio Gonzalez (197) and Cole Hamels (194)?

Only three hurlers in baseball have at least 35 saves each of the past two seasons. Two are rather obvious, though neither is named Mariano Rivera or Jonathan Papelbon. The two arms that have 35 or more saves in each of the last two years that are obvious both pitched in the NL West, though one of them will now pitch for the Marlins: Heath Bell and Brian Wilson. The third man is no longer even a closer, he’s now a setup man in Toronto – Francisco Cordero. If we drop the qualification down to 30 saves each of the last two years we only get eight names, a number that is certainly a lot lower than you were likely thinking it would be (yet another reason to avoid overpaying for closers on draft day perhaps?). There just aren’t that many consistent, save arms in the game when you look at multi-year trend. Think of this. Of the eight 30-save guys the last two years, I already mentioned that Cordero is no longer a closer. Another arm on the list, Leo Nunez (aka Juan Carlos Oviedo), also isn’t going to be closing this season. A third name, Neftali Feliz, is going to start. That means a list of 30 save guys for three years, 2000-12, will have, at most, five names on it. Remember that the last time you go diving for closers early in your draft.

By Ray Flowers

The Catcher’s Position

I say it every year – the catcher’s position is a field filled with landmines. There are certainly options that are elite when it comes to offensive output, but at the same time there is always an inherent risk with anyone who wears the tools of ignorance (Victor Martinez injured his knee – a torn ACL – knocking him out for the season. Was it the result of wear and tear? We may never know.). So what are my thoughts on how you should handle the catchers position, especially if you are in a league (as you should be) that has two starting backstops?

Consider the following.

Strike One.

Last year only one catcher appeared in 150 games – Carlos Santana (155).

Last year four catchers appeared in 140 games – Martinez, Alex Avila, Miguel Montero and John Buck.

Last year six catchers appeared in 130 games – Yadier Molina, Matt Wieters, Jonathan Lucroy, Kurt Suzuki, Carlos Ruiz and Miguel Olivo.

In total we have 11 catcher eligible players who appeared in 130 games, or, to put it another way, there were only 11 catchers who appeared in more than 80 percent of their teams games. How about this – there were only 11 catchers who missed as few as a month worth of games. Think about that for a moment. If you were in a 15 team league last year you had about a 50 percent chance that your starter  behind the dish missed a month worth of game action. That alone should cause you pause when you think about reaching early for a catcher. Hidden inside this digression about games played is the point I brought up at the start – that is the fact that injuries are a huge issue for a backstop. Do you really want to spend a high level pick on a player that is, in the best case scenario, going to miss 15 percent of his teams games? What if there was a fair amount of risk that even that number would be missed (i.e. another injury – think Mike Napoli who is still dealing with an ankle injury from last season)?

Strike Two.

How about this one – how many catchers stole 10 or more bases last year? The answer is zero. Moreover, only four eligible catchers even stole five bases (Russell Martin 8, Miguel Olivo 6, Chris Iannetta 6 and Santana 5). Strike two is a total lack of speed from the player who you will have fill the catcher’s position. There simply no juice at all from backstops in the steals category.

Strike Three.

How about we talk about batting average. Amongst catcher eligible players who had 400 plate appearances do you know how many hit .290? The answer is four – V-Mart (.330) Napoli (.320), Yadier Molina (.305) and Alex Avila (.295). That’s a pretty high batting mark, so let’s drop the qualification down to .275. How many catchers hit .275? The answer is just seven (add in A.J. Pierzynski .287, Carlos Ruiz .283 and Miguel Montero .282). If we drop that number down to .270 we only add two more guys (Yorvit Torrealba .273 and Brian McCann .270). So all told we’ve got nine, not nineteen but nine, catchers who had 400 plate appearances that also hit just .270. Clearly catcher isn’t the place to look for batting average help.

Strike Four.

Is there big time power at the catchers spot? The answer is not really (five catchers hit 20 homers in 2012: Mike Napoli 30, Carlos Santana 27, Brian McCann 24, J.P. Arencebia 23 and Matt Wieters 22). The reason, chiefly, is that they just don’t play enough games. There were nine other catchers who hit between 15 and 19 homers, but that makes my point for me doesn’t it? After a mere handful of guys, pretty much any catcher you will draft is going to hit you something like 15 homers. If the difference between the #6 guy at the position in homers and the #14 guys is just four homers, less than one a month, does it really matter who your catcher is? Further, there were also four more catchers who hit 14 homers (that brings the total to 18 backstops who went deep at least 14 times). The bottom line here is that there was a lot of parody at the catcher’s position, at least in terms of the power output they provide.

I know you have to take a catcher, and I know it matters who you end up with. There is no doubt that there is a significant difference between Mike Napoli and Kurt Suzuki, but my point is that I’m concerned enough about the potential injury situation to always be reluctant to spend big on a catcher. Further, with most catchers missing so much playing time, it just doesn’t make much sense to reach for a catcher. In addition, no catcher is a five category contributor which should further diminish the value of those players at the position. I’m not suggesting you wait until your stuck drafting the #19 and #23 catchers as your starters, but at the same time I’m also much more comfortable targeting catchers in the 8-15 range than I am reaching early, or waiting late, on getting my backstop duo.

Check out the link to Fleaflicker for their rankings on the catcher’s position.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Alex Avila

When it comes to elite level play at the catcher’s position in 2011, Alex Avila is right at the top of the list. He hit for average, he hit for power, an in the end he may have been the best value at the position giving his meager draft day cost. Let’s take a look at his 2011 effort and try to come up with a game plan of how he should be treated in 2012 drafts.

Over the first two seasons of his career Avila, the Tigers’ backstop, had appeared in 104 games with 355 at-bats. In that time he hit a ordinary .237 with 12 homers, 45 RBI and 37 runs scored. He also posted a .327 OBP, two points below the league average, and his .383 SLG was well below the league mark of .411. None of that pointed to a massive breakout in 2011 as his OBP of .389 actually bettered his career SLG percentage coming into the year. All told he fell just a couple of hits short of batting .300 (he finished at .295), as he hit 19 homers, drove in 82 runs, scored 63 times and posted an impressive .895 OPS. In the end he finished third at the position in batting average, sixth in homers, third in RBI, sixth in runs, and first in OBP/SLG/OPS. Told you he had a remarkable season.

How did he have so much success? He walked a fair amount helping to that great OBP, and those free passes helped to offset a K-rate that reach nearly a quarter of his at-bats (23.8 percent). As a result of the high punch out total, his 0.56 BB/K mark was just barely better than the league average. That doesn’t speak too well for his ability to push for a .300 average, and there are other reasons to be concerned about his ability to be an elite option in the batting average category. His line drive rate of 21.7 percent is a bit elevated, but after a 21.5 percent mark in 2010 it might just be that he hits a few more line drives than most (his level is certainly sustainable). However, there is a miniscule chance that he will be able to replicate his BABIP success even with that strong line drive rate. After posting marks of .308 and .278 his first two abbreviated campaigns, numbers right in line with the .290-.300 big league average, that number flew all the way up to .366 in 2011. Avila doesn’t hit enough line drives for that number to be sustainable, and being a painfully slow runner will not allow him to outrun those grounders that are almost a necessity to sustain that stratospheric level. The bottom line is that he could hit just as many line drives as he did in 2011 and still see his actually batting average fall .020 points.

As for the homers, it seems possible that he could sustain his production in that 15-20 range. In his last year in the minors in 2009 he hit 12 bombs in 93 games, and last year’s total of 19 wasn’t out of the realm of the expected for a player who also posted a fly ball rate of 40.5 percent and a 13.8 HR/F ratio. However, it should be pointed out that there is also a fair chance that his HR/F ratio will regress a bit in 2012, meaning that he might have a hard time matching, let alone eclipsing, his 2011 homer total.

So where do you draft Avila in 2012? It certainly wouldn’t be a stretch to have him in the top-5 for next season, but I would hazard caution in terms of expectations. Avila should have another solid season, but there just aren’t that many catchers that post back-to-back efforts of .295-19-80 (in fact, only two catchers have done that in the 21st century, and they are both retired – Mike Piazza in 2000-01 and Javier Lopez in 2003-04). That’s right, there’s no Joe Mauer, Victor Martinez or Brian McCann on that list. Moreover, the catcher’s position is fraught with danger because of the ever present injury risk, so I’m never going to reach on a catcher at the draft table. I expect Avila to be over-drafted next season, but there is still a very reasonable expectation that he will once again be a top-10 catcher in 2012.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June17, 2011

(1) Interleague play messes with players.

(2) Dan Uggla still can’t get her going.

(3) Jake Peavy to the bullpen?

(4) Daric Barton headed to minors?

(5) Ryan Vogelsong continues to amaze.

(6) Tommy Hanson dealing with shoulder woes.
(NOTE: After this video was posted the Braves put Hanson on the 15 DL after an MRI revealed shoulder inflammation).

By Ray Flowers