Draft Day Challenge, May 16

 

BaseballGuys.com has partnered with DraftDay.com to give all my wonderful followers, that’s you, the chance to play the game on a daily basis. On Tuesday and Thursday’s every week, I’ll share some insight into a few of the better plays for the day – even if I’m willing to admit that daily games are a bit of a crap shoot given the difficulty in predicting how a handful of at-bats will work out.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

One other source for those of you on Twitter. @MLBDailyLineups – lists all the lineups in one spot so you can make sure you don’t have someone in your lineup that is sitting on the bench that day.

CATCHERS
1. Tyler Flowers
2. Kurt Suzuki

Flowers is hitting .333 the past week and he faces the middling Jerome Williams who has allowed seven runs over his last 11 innings despite being solid this year with a 3.06 ERA.

Wilson Ramos is hurt again, and it looks like a DL stint could be coming. Suzuki should get lots of work behind the dish, and he’s got a hit in nine of his last 10 games.

FIRST BASE
1. Lyle Overbay
2. Adam LaRoche

A surprising contributor for the Yankees this season, Overbay should keep the good times rolling against Aaron Harang whom he has 11 hits in 24 at-bats against (.458 average).

LaRoche has gone 5-for-14 (.357) against Mr. Volquez with two walks leading to a .438 OBP. LaRoche has also been hot of late (.321 with a homer and four RBIs the past week) making him a strong play.

SECOND BASE
1. Marco Scutaro
2. Dustin Pedroia

Scutaro is hitting .480 the past week with six runs scored. When you are producing like that it doesn’t matter who you are facing (it’s Jhoulys Chacin in Colorado where Scutaro has hit .378 for his career).

Can Mr. Cobb of the Rays stop Pedroia who has 12 hits in his last 24 at-bats (.500)?

THIRD BASE
1. Pablo Sandoval
2. Adrian Beltre

I’ve never been a huge fan of Jhoulys Chacin, not when pitching in Colorado, and that’s where he takes the hill against Pablo Sandoval who is hitting .412 with two homers against him in 17 at-bats.

It’s tough to go with anyone when they face Justin Verlander, but Beltre has long held his own. He’s hit .314 with a homer in 35 at-bats, though his OPS has only been .771.

SHORTSTOP
1. Troy Tulowitzki
2. Yunel Escobar

Tulo is the best hitting shortstop in the game right now (Tulo is hitting .322, has a 1.013 OPS and 32 RBIs in 36 games). He’s also murdered Matt Cain hitting .340 with four homers in 53 games. The matchup will also take place in Colorado. Nuff said.

Escobar has four hits in 10 at-bats against the struggling Felix Doubront (he’s allowed a whopping 12 runs over his last nine innings pitched). Escobar might finally be pulling out of his season long slump as well as he’s hit in four straight and seven of eight games.

OUTFIELD
1. Jason Bay
2. Dayan Viciedo

Want a cheap outfield option who has had a great amount of success against the hurler he’s facing? Bay has hit .400 in 35 at-bats against Andy Pettitte who has a 5.64 ERA and 1.48 WHIP the past three weeks.

Viciedo has looked good since he returned to action (Viciedo has hits in nine of 10 games, and he’s gone deep twice with four RBIs in his last three outings). Can’t get any better than he has been against Jerome Williams though as he is a perfect 5-for-5. He even has a walk which might be more shocking.

STARTING PITCHERS
1. Jose Quintana
2. Edinson Volquez
3. Alex Cobb
4. Matt Cain

Quintana has a 3.72 ERA and 1.22 ERA on the season, and he faces the Angels in Anaheim Thursday. In his last outing he allowed six base runners and two earned runs over six innings against this same Angels club. Does the hitters familiarity, having seen him less than a week ago, scare you off?

Volquez has a 3-0 record and 2.49 ERA the past three weeks as he’s all of a sudden locked in. He’s facing a Nats team that is down Jayson Werth and potentially Bryce Harper, but that’s still a solid club and the game is on the road where Volquez often struggles.

Cobb had an astounding 13 Ks in his last outing, astrounding because he only recorded 14 outs (that’s the first time that has ever happened in big league history). Cobb faces the Red Sox, a team he allowed three earned runs, while striking out six batters, in a 6.2 inning loss on April 14th. He has a 3.18 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over four starts agianst the Sox.

Cain pitches in Colorado, and that’s always a difficult thing for any hurler, but Cain has pitched very well against the Rockies in his career with a 15-7 record an a 3.11 ERA. He’s 5-3 with a 4.11 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in Colorado. Cain is also 2-0 with a 2.95 ERA the past three weeks.

By Ray Flowers

Dumpster Diving: Five Underrated Players in 2012

Matt Bonini shares some of his thoughts with the readers.

Anyone can make selections in rounds 1-15 in a fantasy baseball draft (pull up a top-200 player list and you can field a decent team, barring major injury or “Carl Crawford-like” campaigns). But when all the Pujols’, Jeter’s, Upton’s, and Hamels’ fly off the board, many drafters go into an indifferent, almost passive mindset. Maybe it’s the sense of unfamiliarity with the remaining names on the board, or the lack eye-popping numbers that players left in the draft tend to have. Whatever the reason may be, rounds 15 and on (or what I like to call “Garbage Time”) can be what differentiates a championship team from the Chicago Cubs….I mean… uh… an underachieving team.

Alex Cobb
Cobb comes into 2012 an unheralded prospect partly because of a bizarre season-ending rib injury, and partly because of the highly proficient Rays farm system. A prime example would be the emergence of super-prospect Matt Moore overshadowing what Cobb did during the 2011 regular season. Cobb’s 2011 cameo appearance drew many parallels to what Jeremy Hellickson and David Price did in their first respective tours for the Rays. Cobb posted a 3.42 ERA in nine starts in 2011. If you remove his last start against Oakland in which he was hampered by that rib injury (five earned runs in 4.1 innings), he would have finished with just a 2.79 ERA. Only giving up three homers through 52.2 innings of work isn’t too shabby either, which aligns pretty accurately with his HR/9 in the minors (0.7).

Bud Norris
Go grab yourself a Bud – Bud Norris. A Houston product that goes under the radar because of his team, Norris has shown signs of greatness over his short career. With a K/9 rate of 8.85 over his past two seasons, Norris finds himself among an elite group of starters in the punch-out department. The Houston offense and a less than great WHIP (1.33) will likely keep fantasy managers at bay until much later in the draft, putting a smart manager in a position grab some late round value. Normally caution is warranted with a Minute Maid pitcher but, with the number of strikeouts he gets, taking a shot seems warranted.

Jason Kipnis
Kipnis made quite a bit of noise when he smashed six home runs in ten games a week after he was called up from Triple-A Columbus (three of them coming against the Red Sox). He hit a bit of a snag after a hamstring injury sidelined him for nearly the whole month of August. Although it appeared as if he was never able to fully revive his power numbers (one home run in 18 games upon his return from injury), he was still able to consistently reach base (four multi-hit games and a near .900 OPS), establishing himself as a staple atop the Indians lineup. Kipnis also has the ability to swipe a handful of bags, making him a solid source of runs and stolen bases as well. With everyone getting on the Brett Lawrie and Dustin Ackley bandwagons, waiting to take Kipnis at a much later part of the draft could result in better value for your club.

J.D. Martinez
If there’s one person in Houston who thoroughly enjoyed the dive-bomb season Houston had it would be Martinez. After the Astros jumped ship by unloading Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn, Martinez catapulted to the bigs after posting a .342/.407/.551 line with 43 homers over 298 minor league games. If there is one thing that we can say for sure about Martinez, it’s that he has performed at every level, even though he doesn’t have a single at-bat in Triple-A. In just 208 at-bats at the major league level, he clubbed six homers and drove in an impressive 35 runs. Don’t be too bashful on the young Astros talent simply because he’ll be in the middle of the depressing Astros’ order. Look for Martinez to deliver some much needed pop to one of the worst lineups in baseball next season, giving Houston fans a small ray of hope (or is it shooting star?) for the future.

Zach Cozart
The emergence of Cozart means Cincinnati fans can kiss the Paul Janish era goodbye. Run production should be rampant in Cincinnati with the likes of Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips batting behind him (Cozart hit second in 10 of the 11 games he played with the Reds). In his 2010 Triple-A campaign, Cozart belted 17 home runs to go along with 67 RBI and 30 steals. While his .255 BA wasn’t anything to write home about, his combination of speed and power cannot be ignored. Consider his season ending elbow injury a fantasy blessing, as he will slide under the radar in most drafts because of his lack of exposure last year. At the ripe age of 26 and virtually no roadblocks in his way, expect Cozart to make an impact during the 2012 season.

By Matt Bonini

Mailbag: July 26, 2011

Here are the answers to some of the questions that I have recently received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Drop Jemile Weeks for Desmond Jennings ROTW?
– @jbpowellal

Weeks has provided the A’s with a spark on offense. He’s hitting a strong .307 through his  first 40 games, and he’s used his speed to swipe 10 bags. He has little power, he hasn’t gone deep once and his SLG is a poor .405, but he slaps the ball and runs. One part of his game that he hasn’t flashed yet is his patience at the dish as his current 4.6 walk rate is about a third of the number he posted at Triple-A this year. It would be nice to see him put a few more balls into the ground, his 40 percent ground ball rate isn’t great, but overall this has been a good start to his career.

Jennings is a better talent than Weeks as he can do a few more things on the offensive side of the field. Jennings, surprisingly, showed some power at Triple-A this year with 12 homers in 89 games, while flashing his elite speed. He has also done a solid job all throughout his minor league career at getting on base (his OBP in over 500 minor league games is .380). He’s up with the Rays, finally, and he has looked phenomenal in a couple of games. The real question at this point is can he stay healthy?

Many will argue that Weeks is the preferred option because of his position (second base). I’m still going in the other direction even though Jennings plays a position that’s filled with talent (outfield) because he is just so talented.

 

What’s your take on Alex Cobb. Is he just fill in or does he have long term value? 
– @mercier_five

Cobb is part of a current six man rotation with the Rays. Personally I think the choice to go in that direction is a terrible one, but it’s the way it is in Florida right now. The biggest concern I have with Cobb is his catastrophic K/9 drop. Well over a K per inning guy at Double and Triple-A the past two years, he’s currently at 5.14 through seven big league starts. His BB/9 rate is also worse than the league average as well at 3.43. So how is he having success? It’s all in the grounders as 56 of the batted balls put in play off him have been rug burners. He’s much more Derek Lowe and Fausto Carmona than he is James Shields right now.

As for his long-term value Cobb, a 4th round draft pick in 2006, has risen through the minors on the Rays’ pitching plan, and as we’ve seen that often leads to a lot of success. Cobb was a strikeout per inning arm in the minors, but he’s failed to keep that up in the bigs. The hope is that he doesn’t turn into Wade Davis who has done the the same thing. As a big league starter he’s likely to settle into the #4 role on a good team meaning that he will be hard pressed to ever be a difference maker at the big league level.

What’s your take on Pedro Alvarez now that he’s back?
– @TrillaTrav

Alvarez, the second selection in the 2008 Draft, hit 16 homers with 64 RBI in 95 games with the Pirates last season. Heading into this year nearly every expert in the fantasy game had Alvarez in their top-10, and even those that didn’t were admitting that Alvarez clearly could reach that level. He simply hasn’t. Alvarez has hit .211, posted a .289 OBP and is sporting a sickly .305 SLG (his OBP last year was .326). Alvarez ended up injured and demoted, though he finally seemed to have found his stroke. In 18 games on the farm he hit .325 with a .439 OBP and .538 SLG leading to a recall with the Pirates.

Alvarez has the ability to hit 30 homers while driving in 100, a rate that he was basically performing at last season in the second half (13 homers, 53 RBI over his last 71 games). He’ll need to cut his K-rate down, its over 30 percent this year, to reach that level of success. With all the problems at third base this season, Alvarez is well worth taking a shot on in mixed leagues as there’s always a chance that he’ll recapture the success he had last season in the second half – he certainly has the talent to do it.

IF Heath Bell gets traded, do I drop any of these for Mike Adams – Izzy, Axford, Marmol, Perez, Santos?
– @hedmohave

Last week I broke down the outlook of Mike Adams in the July 19th Mailbag piece. Let me put it this way – his skills are superb, sublime, scintillating in fact. He deserves to be rostered in all but the smallest leagues right now, even as a setup man. If he ends up the closer for the Padres, his value would skyrocket. As for the other arms, here are some thoughts.

Jason Isringhausen: Give him credit for his comeback. The Mets appear intent to sit on him and let him mentor Bobby Parnell leaving Izzy as the Mets’ closer. Jason hasn’t thrown 40 innings since 2008, didn’t pitch in the majors last season, and is 39 years old. He also is giving up a huge 53 percent fly ball rate while his 1.88 K/BB ratio is terrible.

John Axford: Good for the Brewers in doing the right thing, i.e. leaving Axford in the 9th and using Francisco Rodriguez as the setup man. Axford continues to impress with a K.9 rate of 11.27, which when combined with a 54 percent ground ball rate results in him being ideally suited to long-term success in the 9th inning.

Carlos Marmol: The Cubs’ righty had a brutal week, but since then he’s back on track with four scoreless outings. Owner of a devastating arsenal, Marmol is striking out more than 11 batters per nine innings, and he is back as the closer. It’s a bumpy ride, but the results are usually solid. If his BABIP of .324 regresses back to career norms (.254), he would be in line for a strong finish.

Chris Perez: He has been struggling a bit all season despite converting 22 of 24 save chances. A K/9 per inning arm, Perez has seen that number dip to 5.80 this season, which when complimented but his 4.54 BB/9 mark makes him one risky option on the hill. That regression has been on full display the last two weeks as his ERA has gone from 2.23 to 3.03 over four outings.

Sergio Santos: He’s being used cautiously by Ozzie Guillen as Sergio has now appeared in 5-straight games in which he hasn’t lasted an inning despite allowing not a single hit and just one walk. He has been strong all year (3.07 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 12.07 K/9) and remains the arm to own in Chicago, even with the odd usage.

Would I drop any of these arms to add Adams if the deal goes down? I wouldn’t even wait that long. I’d make the move to add Adams right now at the expense if Isringhausen.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 210 and XM 87.