Around the Horn: April 14, 2011

(1) Braves plan on leaving Jason Heyward down in the batting order.

(2) Is Alex Gordon for real?

(3) Should you be worried about the velocity drop of Aroldis Chapman?

(4) Reports of Lance Berkman’s demise were greatly overrated.

(5) Carlos Pena still has pain in his right thumb from April 4th injury.

(6) Chris Young dealing with biceps tendonitis. What a shock.

(7) Pablo Sandoval continues his early season surge.

By Ray Flowers

Diamond Musings

You got a chance to see my beautiful mug earlier today in Around the Horn – Slow Starts . Now you’ll get a chance to also be bored by my written word.

Alex Gordon has looked great so far justifying the Royals decision to bat him third in the lineup (I still think it’s a bad idea, but for now it’s clearly working). Through that massive sample size of 24 at-bats, Gordon is hitting .375 with a 1.067 OPS as he has scored six times and knocked in three runs through five games. Have the Royals actually, inconceivably, done something right? They have have here, but…

Luke Hochevar was the #1 pick in the country in 2006, and since then he has been a monumental bust. Completely miscast as the Royals’ opening day starter, Hochevar owns a career ERA of 5.61 and a 1.46 WHP over 399.1 innings. He also owns a poor 5.97 K/9 mark and an equally unimpressive 1.95 K/BB ratio. I know the Royals took Hochevar first overall in 2006 because of cost and signability concerns about others in the draft, but look at some of the other first round arms that were taken that year: Brandon Morrow (5th overall), Clayton Kershaw (7th), Tim Lincecum (10th) and Max Scherzer (11th). Now you know why the Royals stink year after year. Let’s give them at least some credit. It’s not like the Rockies (#2 – Greg Reynolds) or Tigers (#6 – Andrew Miller) used their picks wisely either (in retrospect of course).

I got an awful lot of flack from people about having Howie Kendrick ranked so highly this year in the Baseball Guys’ Top-300. It’s only been five games of course, but early returns are very positive as he is hitting .429 with three bombs and six runs scored. He continues to fatten up against the Rays who he has absolutely demolished in his career to the tune of .443/.483/.722 slash line over 97 at-bats. He’s also knocked in 15 while scoring 20 times in those 26 games. Yowzah.

Help me out here Angels. You head into the year with Fernando Rodney as your closer. Everyone tells you it’s a bad idea, I think even the Rally Monkey could have told you that, but you pushed on anyway going with the veteran who saved 37 games in 2009 for the Tigers. So what happens? Rodney goes out and makes two appearances and loses the job? He did walk for guys in 1.1 innings, but honestly Angels, what did you expect? I simply can’t fathom why a team would bail on a player after two games. I’m sitting here castigating people for wanting to abandon ship in the fantasy game, telling them to remain patient, and you go and do this? Fantasy gamers who drop players after a week are stupid. A major league team that demotes a player after a week is monumentally misguided, and that’s being overly kind. So what happens when Peter Bourjos goes 1-for-13, will he lose his job? If Scott Downs returns from the DL and allows runs in three straight outings will he be released? I don’t see how this move helps anyone on the team – all it does is instill fear in the players that they’ll lose their job at the first sign of adversity. Jordan Walden takes over in the 9th inning by the way, and with his dominating stuff he is a must add in all leagues if he’s still sitting on the waiver-wire.

By Ray Flowers

April Fool’s Day

It’s my party and I’ll cry if I want to.

It’s my birthday and I’ll drink if I want to.

Yeah, it’s my birthday, and that’s no joke despite the fact that it’s April Fool’s Day. Obviously I’m feeling a bit frisky given today given the enormity of the day, so I’m just going to let it fly today and leave it up to you to determine when I’m stating a fact or exaggerating for effect.

John Axford had a WHIP of 1.92 this spring, and things didn’t get much better on opening day as he allowed a sure win to slip through the Brewers’ hands as he allowed a two out, three run homer to Ramon Hernandez in the 9th inning leading to the Reds 7-6 comeback victory. I wouldn’t be at all shocked if Axford figured out what ails him as he brings the heat and induces a lot of grounders, but if he continues to struggle Takashi Saito would seem like a pretty fair bet to pick up some save chances. Saito might be 40 years old, but look at his career numbers – 2.83 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 11.00 K/9 and a 3.89 K/BB ratio. Those are pretty phenomenal ratios are they not?

Ryan Franklin is awful. He allowed the game to slip away in the 9th inning on a 417 foot bomb to dead center by Cameron Maybin. It’s only one game, but this is exactly why rostering a power arm like that of Matt Thornton over Franklin makes all the sense in the world. As for Maybin he looked fantastic. In addition to the bomb to dead center field he also had a single and made a great diving play on defense. Emblematic of his time in the majors though, he was removed from the game after the second hit after coming up lame. Reports are that it was just a cramp, so hopefully he’ll be able to go back to being the most dynamic force in the National League in the Padres next game.

Alex Gordon had a day to remember on opening day. He missed a 3-run homer by a few feet when his deep shot ended up on the wrong side of the foul pole and he struck out three times while going 0-for-5 while leaving five batters on base. I’m cheering for the guy, but the Royals are doing him no favors but putting him in the third hole in the order. Are they trying to put so much pressure on him that he fails yet again? I know he’s been swinging a good bat, but why not bat him 7th, let him get some confidence going in regular season games, and then move him up the order is his production warrants it. Of course, that makes far too much sense for a team that, and I’m not kidding, has no idea how to put together a major league batting order. Melky Cabrera was hitting second, a great spot for a guy with a career .328 OBP and only moderate speed.

Jeff Mathis had a huge opening day for the Angels. Not only did he guide a staff to a victory, 4-2 over the Royals, he also did some serous bashing at the dish. Mathis had two hits, a homer and a double, in the best offensive game of his life going back to t-ball when he was five years old. That’s only a slight exaggeration. I mean seriously, the guy had six games of two hits or more last year and he appeared in 68 contests. How bad a hitter is he? In a career of 954 at-bats prior to opening day he had hit .195 with a .265 OBP and a .311 SLG. For those of you without a calculator handing that means his OPS of .576 is only .295 points behind the leading OPS mark posted by a catcher last season (Joe Mauer .871). I mean my goodness. Mathis’ career SLG is .311. His old mate behind the dish, Mike Napoli, has a career OBP of .346.

Albert Pujols is awful. He went 0-for-5 with three double-plays to become the first player in big league history to do that on opening day. Hopefully you didn’t draft him first overall because this was an absolutely horrible performance and one that is likely to be indicative of his yearlong struggles.

Happy April Fool’s Day.

By Ray Flowers

Injuries and Random Musings

After the last couple of days where I’ve hit the “attach” button in email about nine zillion times sending out player capsules for designated hitters and catchers (thanks to all of you for your continued support), I thought I’d give myself a break and break down some of the more intriguing stories on the diamond with a particular focus on injuries.

* Adam Wainwright is done for 2011 as he’ll need Tommy John surgery. With a recovery time frame of 12-18 months, it’s not at all certain that he will be back on the hill for Opening Day 2012. Not only is that an obviously crushing blow to the Cards, it’s also a massive damper in the fantasy game which brings up two points.

(1) As much as I love doing mock drafts, having a draft for a league that you are actually going to play out before the month of March is crazy. In fact, you might want to push back your draft to late March because some big player is always hurt in camp leaving a gaping hole on the roster of the person who took that player. This year it was the Wainwright owner. Last year it was Joe Nathan who hosed me in my AL-only league leaving my team, well, to put it bluntly, screwed.

(2) The injury to Wainwright is reason #736 why drafting a pitcher in the first couple of rounds of a fantasy draft is such a risk. Any player can be injured at any time, but the chance of a catastrophic injury to a pitcher is far greater than one to an every day player.

* Just for the hell of it. Vernon Wells, who no one seems to like in fantasy or the real world (that is unless you are in the Angels’ front office), had three more RBI last year than Jayson Werth (88 to 85).

* Say it with me — I’m scared when health challenged players are already having problems early in camp. Some thoughts.

Justin Morneau: He’s progressing in his return from his concussion, even hitting live pitching the past two days which brings up two questions. (1) What the hell is live pitching? Is there “dead” pitching? (2) How bad are things with Morneau that we legitimately get happy hearing that he did something about 137.2 million kids have done the past two days. The Twins say he is still on pace to make the opening day roster, so we’ll all continue to send Justin happy thoughts. For more on Morneau click on Circling the Bases, my weekly column that will be featured at Rotowire.com.

Brian Roberts: He said he tweaked his neck while sleeping (apparently staying up late to watch infomercials about the Ab Crunch 7000 can make your neck sore). He’s missed a couple of days and could return to the field on Friday. Still, after all of his setbacks last season with his back, consider me exceedingly nervous with the talented second sacker.

Grady Sizemore: The 28 year old outfielder ran sprints this week for the first time since having microfracture surgery on his knee. Now we get a report from Buster Olney that it appears likely Sizemore will begin the year on the DL because he’s just not ready to go. I don’t know about you, but this guy scares the bejeus out of me and that’s hard to do because of my love of horror movies.

* Can anyone help me to understand why I’m borderline obsessed with Kristen Stewart of Twilight fame? She’s attractive sure, but it’s not like she is a bombshell or anything, and half the time she looks like she has been puffing on the magic dragon. Still, when she is on the screen I just can’t take my eyes off her.  By the way, I saw all three of the Twilight movies with my girlfriend at the time, and while I may not be a 16 year teen in throws of hormonal upheaval, I will admit to liking them – at least a little bit.

* Don’t forget about Alex Gordon on draft day. Ned Yost, Royals’ manager, is impressed with how Gordon has looked after working with hitting coach Kevin Seitzer this offseason. This is likely Gordon’s last shot to earn a full-time role with the Royals, a shocking admission for a guy who was taken 2nd overall in the 2005 Draft. I won’t reach for Gordon, but in rounds 25 and up in mixed leagues he’s as worthy as most of the riff raff that will be called out.

* Just for the hell of it Part II. Juan Pierre led the majors last year with 18 caught stealing which happens to be the same steal total that Hunter Pence and Justin Upton posted.

* And finally a parting shot. Remember sample size people. Don’t make the mistake of simply looking at a month of games, or a handful of starts from a pitcher, and think you’ve got it all figured out. Anyone can look good, or conversely horrible, if you take a quick snapshot. You want proof?
This pitcher went 0-5 with a 7.82 ERA and 1.82 WHIP In August.
Who is this hurler?

The answer will likely shock some. It is Tim Lincecum who won 16 games, posted a solid 3.43 ERA, had a 1.27 WHIP and had 231 Ks to lead the NL. By the way, The Freak rebounded after his atrocious month of pitching to go 5-1 with a 1.94 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in September.

Sample size people.

By Ray Flowers

Random ADP Thoughts

l probably touch on plenty of Average Draft Position data over the coming month plus as we get ready for the start of the regular season. Today, I’m gonna look at the data from Mock Draft Central and point out some of the more vexing things I’m currently seeing.

Is Andre Ethier really a top-11 outfielder like he is being drafted (ADP of 40)? The dude has a beautiful swing, you’ll get no argument from me there, but there are some serious concerns with me if you are thinking of going with Ethier in the top-40 or so picks. (1) He’s only had one season of 25 homers. (2) He’s only had one season of 85 RBI. He’s only had one season of 400 at-bats in which he hit .295. (4) He’s never stolen more than six bases. So let’s boil that down. How much would you pay for a .295-25-85 season with six steals? Aubrey Huff hit .290 with 26 homers, 86 RBI and seven steals last year and his ADP this year is 111. I’m just saying.

Rickie Weeks is going off the board eight picks before Ian Kinsler and 70 before Kelly Johnson. Huh. I know Kinsler is an injury waiting to happen, but really, is he any more of a risk than Weeks? In three of the his six seasons Weeks has failed to appear in 100 games. Kinsler has appeared in at least 100 games in each of his five seasons. Let’s compare the performance of each man per 162 games.

Weeks: .253-22-67-113-23
Kinsler: .281-24-83-115-28
Johnson: .269-18-70-91-11

I snuck Johnson in there at the end to show that he is likely the best option of all three if you are talking about a return on your investment. I wouldn’t put his upside anywhere near to the other two, but there could be value in selecting him five rounds later. By the way, I’m not sold on anyone taking Weeks before Kinsler.

I get why people are scared off from Mark Reynolds, I mean the dude hit .198 last year. But should he be going off the board at pick 129? Over the past three years, here is how Reynolds ranks amongst third sackers: he is first with 104 homers, fourth with 284 RBI, second with 264 runs scored and third with 185 extra base hits. Are you really sure he isn’t a better value than the Pirates up and coming slugger Pedro Alvarez who is going off the board with an ADP of 88? Alvarez hit only .256 last year, Reynolds is .242 for his career, and Alvarez struck out 119 times in just 347 at-bats. I really don’t see too much difference there.

Alex Gordon is barely cracking the top-400 right now, and with good reason after he hit a mere .215 in 242 at-bats with the Royals last season. Still, the guy was the #2 overall selection in the 2005 Draft, he’s just 27 years old, and I think the Royals will give him a legit shot at everyday playing time making him a terrific AL-only option with some mixed league appeal (if you grab him really late). Don’t overlook that Gordon punished Triple-A pitching last year to the tune of a .315-14-44-59-7 line in a mere 68 games. It’s now or never time for him, and he knows it.

Roy Oswalt led the NL in WHIP last season (1.03) and he is going off the board as the 27th starting pitcher with an ADP of 101. Let’s compare, for giggles, his work last season to that of Zack Greinke who is going off the board in the top-10 amongst starters with an ADP of 51.

Oswalt: 13-13, 2.76 ERA, 193 Ks, 1.03 WHIP, 3.51 K/BB in 211.2 IP
Greinke: 10-14, 4.17 ERA, 181 Ks, 1.25 WHIP, 3.29 K/BB in 220 IP

Surprised? I’ll give Greinke a boost in value since he will now be in the NL, and he clearly is the one of the duo who has more “upside,” but really, does that justify the fact that he is going off the board 50 selections ahead of Oswalt? Not in my mind.

If you have any questions drop me a line at rflowers@fanball.com, and make sure you follow me on Twitter at the Baseball Guys’ Twitter account.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: July 23, 2010

(1) David DeJesus out for the year with injured thumb.

(2) It’s true, Brian Roberts is back.

(3) Carl Crawford returns to the starting lineup.

(4) Justin Masterson could be shut down in September.

(5) Rangers could get Rich Harden and Derek Holland back soon.

(6) J.A. Happ to return to Phillies because of injury to Jamie Moyer.

(7) The Royals have recalled Alex Gordon. Should you care? Read Five Questions to find out (there is also more in that piece about Roberts return and what to do with Happ).

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: July 22, 2010

(1) Angels deal for Alberto Callaspo, give up Sean O’Sullivan and William Smith. Rick Ankiel activated.

(2) Jamie Moyer has sprained UCL (grade 2), might need TJ Surgery.

(3) Roy Oswalt, Dan Haren, Brett Myers, Ted Lilly on the block.

(4) Edison Volquez lit up by Nationals.

(5) Josh Johnson, 13-straight starts two or fewer earned runs.

(6) Bobby Jenks removed from closers role.

(7) Brian Roberts could return as early as Friday.

(8) Jacoby Ellsbury takes BP.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June 4, 2010

(1) Grady Sizemore done for the year – microfracture knee surgery.

(2) Carlos Beltran has success in extended spring game.

(3) No surgery for Brett Anderson?

(4) Vladimir Guerrero returns from injured eye.

(5) Alex Gordon hitting well, but won’t be back soon with Royals.

(6) Gary Matthews Jr. was designated. Still owned nearly $20 million on current deal.

(7) Pat Burrell with Giants, John Bowker demoted. For more make sure you read my most recent Five Questions article which also talks about Gordon Beckham losing playing time, and Matt Wieters struggles.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May3, 2010

(1) Alex Gordon to work on versatility in minors.

(2) Brad Lidge not ready to close – who will for Phillies?

(3) Jimmy Rollins likely to miss at least two more weeks.

(4) Joe Mauer to DL with heel injury?

(5) Javier Vazquez to have start skipped.

(6) Brian Wilson back to health in San Francisco.

(7) Should you still sell-high on Garland and Fister? Here’s a quick shorthand note – yes.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: April30, 2010

(1) A lot of star level players are returning this weekend: Ian Kinsler, Brad Lidge and Cliff Lee. Oh, and Ryan Madson is on DL with broken toe from kicking something.

(2) A’s get bad news with Justin Duchscherer and Kurt Suzuki.

(3) Jacoby Ellsbury takes swings off tee.

(4) Lance Berkman tweaks groin.

(5) Justin Morneau returns from back injury.

(6) Chris Getz returns for Royals forcing Alex Gordon to bench.

By Ray Flowers