Player Profile: Josh Beckett

Josh Beckett is a big game pitcher. We all know that. But being able to summon his skills for a game here or there in October isn’t going to make him a worthy fantasy addition in 2013 is it? Will the move back to the NL to pitch for the Dodgers make him what he once was – a viable option on the hill in mixed leagues, a season after going 7-14 with a 4.65 ERA? Let’s investigate.

Dodger Stadium is a good place to pitch, always has been. Petco Park in San Diego, and AT & T Park in San Francisco, are also good places to pitch. That’s a solid foundation for Beckett, if the skills are still there. Are they?

Beckett has done the old Alex Rios, the up and down effort thing, in the ERA column. Look at his yearly marks since 2005:

3.37
5.10
3.27
4.03
3.86
5.87
2.89
4.65

Can’t explain that, it’s just the way it is.

His WHIP? From 2007-09 it was 1.14, 1.19 and 1.19. It then exploded in 2010 up to 1.54. He knocked it back down to 1.03 in 2011 before seeing it rise to 1.33 last season.

Let me take a step back for a moment. Did you notice that Beckett had a 2.89 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 2011? Two years ago he was an elite performer folks. Has the 32 year old lost it overnight? I find that hard to believe, don’t you?

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

Lat season was the first time since 2006 that Beckett failed to strike out eight batters per nine innings as the mark fell to 6.97. That’s a concern. His fastball lost about two mph from his normal heater at 91.4 mph (career 93.7). Is that a blip on the radar or his new level? That’s a fair question to ask. It would seem that Beckett realized what was going on as he threw his fastball only 48 percent of the time, the first time that mark had ever dipped under 50 percent. It also marked a fourth straight season of a decline in the percentage of times he hucks the heater. He’s upped his use of the cutter in recent seasons moving from 15, to 18 to 21 percent the past three years. Are batters falling for it? Yes, they are. His 32.3 percent mark in pitches swung at by batters outside of the strike zone in 2012 was the second highest mark of his career. Batters also swung at 69.1 percent of the pitches he tossed up there in the strike zone, the highest that mark has been since 2004. That’s an odd coupling. However, given his 8.5 percent mark on swing and misses on strikes, he’d been in the 8′s in five of the previous six seasons, would seem to suggest that his “stuff” was still OK.

However, Beckett seems to be nibbling more than ever. His 43.3 percent mark in pitches thrown inside the strike zone last season was the lowest of his career an a third straight season of a mark under 50 percent. In fact, the mark has gone down 4-straight years, and no one likes to see that (what I would like to see is pictures of Olivia Wilde – that is one beautiful woman no matter what scale you are using. Hypnotic eyes wouldn’t you say? How the heck did funny man Jason Sudekis get her? What does that guy have on me? OK, maybe $20 million dollars helps.). Beckett walked 2.75 batters per nine innings last year, one hundredth higher than his career mark. Seems like all the nibbling didn’t lead to any increase in the free passes he issued.

Always a homer magnet, Beckett has a career mark of 1.01 which belies a couple of whopper seasons he’s had (1.58 in 2006 and 1.41 per nine in 2010 stand out). His new home in L.A. will help that. According to Park Indices the last three years, Dodgers Stadium is just three percent above the NL average. The park shouldn’t be much of a factor in 2013.

So where does that leave us with Beckett?

It seems like Beckett will slot in as the third starter for the Dodgers behind Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke (when healthy). That’s three potentially impressive arms at the top of the rotation, and the other two should hopefully allow Beckett to relax a bit. The full-time return to the NL will also help, as well pitching in Dodger Stadium. Given the downturn that Beckett offered last year in the mph and K columns, some trepidation is warranted. On the other hand he is a year removed from dominating batters, is only 32 years old, and would seem to profile as an arm that is going much later than he should in many drafts. In a standard mixed league how could you not be interested in a guy with the pedigree of Beckett as your 5th starter (see the ADP information)?

* Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Bryce Harper

What Bryce Harper did last season was amazing. Anytime a player hits 22 homers with 18 steals and 98 runs scored that is one heck of a season. When a player does that as a rookie it’s a rather remarkable season. When a player does that as a 19 year old it’s a season for the record books. Will the next great one build on a special rookie season in year two, and if so, how far up the mountain can he climb in 2013?

A look at some facts from 2012.

Bryce Harper hit 22 homers. Only one player 19 or younger ever hit more – Tony Conigliaro had 24 in 1964.

Bryce Harper had 59 RBIs. That is the 8th highest total ever for a player 19 years of age or younger (Phil Cavarretta had 82 in 1935).

Bryce Harper scored 98 runs. Only one player 19 or younger scored more (Buddy Lewis had 100 in 1936).

Bryce Harper had 18 steals. Only one player in the Modern Era (since 1901), 19 or younger, has ever stolen more bags (Ty Cobb stole 23 in 1906).

Bryce Harper had a .817 OPS as a 19 year old. No one 19 or younger ever had a better mark in a season of 502 plate appearances.

Given those facts, Harper must be looked at as an elite talent capable of immense things, the same point of view every person that has ever watched him play a game on the baseball field agrees with. This 19 year old kid was two steals and two runs from a 20/20, 100 season. Hell, Alex Rios and Carl Crawford have never done that. The question with Harper is how good will he be?

If we remove his name and age and just focus on the numbers, here is what we find.

He struggled against lefties hitting .240 with a .300 OBP and mere .415 SLG. He also struck out 51 times in just 183 at-bats against lefties.

He posted a BB/K mark of 0.47 which is basically league average. When he swung at a pitch that was thrown inside the strike zone he made contact 87 percent of the time, a solid number for a player who also owns a 20.1 percent K-rate.

His GB/FB ratio was 1.35, a bit higher than the league average. Moreover, his 33 percent fly ball rate was two percentage points below the league average making his homer total pretty impressive. The reason he was able to go deep 22 times was due to a solid 16.2 percent HR/F ratio. Anyone who has ever watched him hit knows that is a number he is more than capable of repeating and/or improving upon moving forward.

But we cannot remove the name on the back of the jersey from this discussion, can we? Much like the case with Mike Trout, these two players are once in a generation talents who just so happen to be starting their careers at the same time. Is it fair to either, particularly Harper since that’s who this piece is about, to treat him like every other youngster who has ever played the game? If I was to do that I would say that we should expect some moderate growth in year two. The average may not improve much, not until he cuts down the walks a bit and learns to be a bit more patient, but a repeat is well within the realm of the possible. I would also say that looking at the totality of the evidence that another run to 20/20 would be possible, though I would be a bit concerned about there being any homer growth since the fella didn’t hit as many fly balls as I would like to see.

Again though, is it fair to do this? Can we simply remove our beliefs/eyes when it comes to a generational talent like Harper? Do we change the way we evaluate players because of who Harper is and the fact that he accomplished so many amazing things as a mere 19 year old? That’s the exact point that analysis breaks down and the data might not be sufficient to explain what we are witnessing.

Is Harper capable of hitting .300?
NO. At this stage of his development he can be pitched to. If pitchers hit their spots they can not only get him out, but make him look bad in the process.

Is Harper capable of hitting 30 homers?
YES. Will he? Not without hitting more fly balls.

Is Harper capable of 20 steals?
YES. He nearly got there last year as a player with no big league experience an as one who got base at a .340 clip.

Is Harper capable of 80+ RBIs?
YES. The Nationals would seem to have a pretty stacked order, but it will still be tough for him to knock in 80+ runs if he hits out of the #2 hole (his spot for 117 of his 139 games last season).

Is Harper capable of 100 runs scored?
Duh. He had 98 last season. Hitting second obviously helps him in this category.

So what would you pay on draft day for a guy who could go .280-25-75-100-20. An awful lot right? I’m not saying that Harper will hit all five of those numbers. I’m also not saying he’ll fall short in all five categories. I merely use those numbers as a way to illustrate how most people will be viewing him on draft day which means if you want to roster Harper this year you will have to be willing to spend a top-25 selection. I don’t think I will be able to join that party. I know that he is an immense talent who we might one day look back on and be able to tell our children that we saw him play from the first day of his career, but I also know that he is only 20 years old and has a total of 139 games played at the big league level. I’d rather spend a top-25 selection on a player that I felt more secure about producing across the board than on Harper, even if there is a good chance that he ends up fulfilling those lofty expectations in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

2012 Positional Review – Outfield

Now that the 2012 season is over, it’s time to review how my predictions went for each position in fantasy baseball. To that end, I will review my top-10 at each position and give a brief rundown on how each of the ten performed. I’ll also list which player was a “Hit” (someone who lived up to expectations) as well as a “Miss” (the player who simply failed to impress).

Note: All of these rankings are taken from the 2012 BASEBALLGUYS DRAFT GUIDE

For more on the Draft Guide you can click on the link.

For an update on what you missed in the Draft Guide, click on the link.

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

SECOND BASE

THIRD BASE

SHORTSTOP

2012 OUTFIELDERS Top-20

1 Ryan Braun
2 Matt Kemp
3 Carlos Gonzalez
4 Justin Upton
5 Jacoby Ellsbury
6 Andrew McCutchen
7 Matt Holliday
8 Michael Bourn
9 Curtis Granderson
10 Hunter Pence
11 B.J. Upton
12 Ginacarlo Stanton
13 Shane Victorino
14 Nelson Cruz
15 Josh Hamilton
16 Adam Jones
17 Jay Bruce
18 Shin-Soo Choo
19 Brett Gardner
20 Jayson Werth

Braun was my #1 player heading into the year. He may have been edged out by Mike Trout for the honor of the best player in fantasy baseball, but Braun was simply amazing and just as good as he was in his MVP effort of ’11.

2011: .332-33-111-109-33
2012: .319-41-112-18-30

Kemp hit .303 with 23 bombs, 69 RBIs, 74 runs scored and nine thefts in a tremendous letdown season. Still, his pace for 160 games would have led to an effort of .303-35-104-112-14. If he did that, would you have complained?

CarGo produced a third straight 20/20 effort though he also had three year lows in homers (22), RBI (85), runs (.89) and OPS (.881). All things considered though, he was still an elite fantasy performer.

J. Upton was terrible. Just ask one of his owners. Justin had only 17 homers and 67 RBIs a year after 31 and 88. But was he really as bad as you thought? Not even close despite the popular perception. Upton hit .280, two points better than his career mark, stole 18 bases (he averaged 20 the previous three years), and scored a career best 107 runs, the second highest total in the NL. So much for a terrible season.

Ellsbury appeared in 74 games, the second time in three years that he didn’t make it out onto the field for half the Red Sox games. The talent is undeniable, but his inability to stay healthy is a huge concern, as is the fact that he hit just four homers in 303 at-bats. Remember, he had 32 of his career total of 56 homers in just 660 at-bats in 2011 meaning he has 24 homers in his other 1,675 ABs.

McCutchen dominated as every talent evaluator in the game thought he could. Andrew went 30/20 and just missed out on also going 100-100 as he had 96 RBIs and 107 runs scored. Toss in a .327 batting and you have a top-5 fantasy campaign.

Holliday was supposed to struggle without Albert Pujols, remember? Uh, no. Holliday hit .295 with 27 homers, 102 RBIs and 95 runs scored for the Cards.

Bourn was pathetic at the dish hitting a mere .225 over his final 70 games, but in summation his season was an unqualified success as he hit .274 (career .272) with a career best nine homers and 57 RBIs. Toss in 96 runs (one off his career best) and 42 steals, and he had another elite fantasy season.

Granderson, somewhat surprisingly, hit 43 homers with 106 RBIs and 102 runs scored giving him 2-straight years of 40-100-100. However, he also failed to hit .250 for the third time in four years, and his maddening stolen base trend continued. Here are his steals totals since 2007: 26, 12, 20, 12, 25 and 10.

Pence hit a career worst .253 with a career-low five steals. The good? He hit 24 homers with 104 RBIs, the second number being a career best. A solid though somewhat disappointing effort.

B.J. Upton started the ball rolling late because of injury, but by the end of the season he was a mere two bombs short of his first 30/30 effort. Upton only hit .246, but this was the 5th straight 30 steal effort and a second straight 20/30 performance. He also recorded 79 runs for the 6th straight year.

Stanton flashed his unsurpassed power with 37 homers and 86 RBIs in just 123 games played. What was really surprising to see was the .290 batting average, a number that he will find it hard to replicate given his approach at the plate (143 Ks just 46 walks in those 123 games).

Victorino struggled for large portions of the year and his .255 batting average was a major disappointment as were his 5-year low in RBIs (55) and his 6-year low in runs (72). At least he stole 39 bags, a career best.

Cruz appeared in 159 games, a shocking total for a player who had never taken the field 130 times. Amazingly, his per at-bat numbers were four years worsts as he hit 24 homers with 90 RBIs on the year. Those are solid numbers, but more was expected from him if he was healthy able to play 150+ games. He also isn’t running anymore with eight steals in 2012 and 17 the past two years (he stole 37 bases in 2009-10).

Hamilton had a monstrous season batting .285 with 43 dingers, 128 RBIs and 103 runs scored. For the most part he kept himself out of trouble, and he even managed to play 148 games, a four year high. An effort like this was always possible, but he was as low as he was in my rankings because of the constant off the field concerns and his inability to stay healthy making him a sizable risk. For one year those concerns disappeared.

Jones hit 16 homers in the first 51 games before slowing down the rest of the way to end the year with 32 big flies, a career best. He also stole 16 bases and scored 103 times, more career bests, as was his .287 average (by three points). Add in 82 RBIs and you’ve got yourself one hell of a campaign.

Bruce was very good, but far from the breakout star many predicted. Still, his yearly improvement is impressive and historic.

2008: 21 homers, 52 RBIs
2009: 22 homers, 58 RBIs
2010: 25 homers, 70 RBIs
2011: 32 homers, 97 RBIs
2012: 34 homers, 99 RBIs

Choo didn’t make it all the way back to his 2009-10 heyday, but he was damn impressive (.283-16-67-88-21). His season really took off when he was inserted into the leadoff spot (.310/.389/.493 in 99 games).

Gardner’s elbow literally had him on the edge of a return like six times. In the end he hit .323 with two steals in 16 games after swiping 96 bases with 185 runs scored in 2010-11. A massive letdown.

Werth hit .300 with a .387 OBP, tremendous numbers, but he only appeared in 81 games with five homers, eight steals and 31 RBIs. Just not what his owners, or the Nationals, were hoping for.

Hit: Alex Rios (#23), Dexter Fowler (#33)
I highlighted Rios as the best option outside the top-20 at the position, and for that I drew derision from many fantasy circles. I had the last laugh though as he hit .304 with 25 homers, 91 RBIs, 93 runs scored and 23 steals. Efforts like his win fantasy championships. Fowler was another player that people shied away from, and while his effort wasn’t as good as that of Rios it was still plenty helpful (.300-13-53-72-12 in just 454 at-bats).

Miss: Josh Hamilton, Hunter Pence
Misses due to injury: Ellsbury, Gardner, Werth, Carl Crawford (#21)

By Ray Flowers

Review: Tout Wars

I stand accountable for my actions. More times than not I’m right, but sometimes I make mistakes. When I do, I’m not afraid to admit it. I’d like to think that helps to set me out a bit in this industry. I try to be transparent and truthful. To that end, I thought I would spend a few days reviewing the results from my “experts leagues.” It wasn’t exactly pretty, I’ll be straight forward with that, but again I don’t believe in running and hiding. Here is how things went in my first year in Tout Wars (I was in the mixed league with 15 clubs).

It all went wrong from the day the draft was held. The following three players saw me battle down to the end, it’s an action league, but ultimately I stopped bidding on all of them a dollar short (I was the runner up for each if you will): Edwin Encarnacion, Zack Greinke and Andrew McCutchen. In their place I ended up with Pablo Sandoval, Cliff Lee and B.J. Upton. Pretty understandable how I didn’t finish higher in the league isn’t it now? Speaking of Lee, I’m flabbergasted at his total of six wins. I started him every time he took the hill this year, so let’s saw he won 13 games and not six this season (his performance warranted 13 victories, at least, and he averaged 16 wins the previous four years). If I had seven more victories to my team total I would have gone from 86 wins to 93 victories. That alone would have netted me three more points in the standings and put me into 8th place overall. It’s always amazing how closely these things end up being after 162 games. If I had rostered EE, Greinke and McCutchen… I don’t even want to try and figure that out cause it would likely make me want to vomit.

Suzuki and Buck both had career worst seasons.

Carlos Lee was passable but Gaby Sanchez went from productive to the minors. Dreadful.

Chase Utley was supposed to miss about a month. He ended up playing only 83 games. Dustin Ackley played on a bad ankle all year and was terrible. At least Danny Espinosa turned out pretty damn well with 17 homers, 20 steals and 82 runs scored.

Derek Jeter was a star and a fantastic $13 investment on draft day.

Pablo Sandoval was solid when on the field. He didn’t get to even 400 at-bats though.

Nelson Cruz stayed healthy but didn’t perform to his previous levels, though surprisingly he remained relatively healthy. B.J. Upton was supposed to miss a week. Turned out to nearly be a month even though he was very impressive when on the field. Alex Rios – superstar effort for $13. Carl Crawford was thought to be good to go by May 1st at the latest. Hey, it was worth the risk as my 4th outfielder. Turns out his season was an unmitigated disaster as he had more injuries than John J. Rambo picks up when saving people in the jungle. He appeared in 31 games. Denard Span was a decent 5th OF in a 15 team mixed league, especially for $2, as he hit .283 with 17 steals.

On the hill Cliff Lee pitched very well, but couldn’t get any run support at all. Felix Hernandez wet the bed in September, but overall he had a very impressive season. John Danks, was injured and made just nine starts. Chad Billingsley was having a nice bounceback season but made 25 starts, his lowest total in five years, cause of injury. James McDonald was a fantastic reserve round add even if he too died in the second half. Oh, and Ricky Nolasco? It’s time to give up there. In the pen I had a tremendous group with Tyler Clippard, Sergio Romo (I bought the duo for $7) and Kenley Jansen. However, Sergio Santos was a total bust due to injury, and literally right after Mariano Rivera was hurt and David Robertson was moved into the closing role, Robertston also came up lame. You guessed it. I also had Robertson on my staff. I could have had Romo/Clippard/Robertson/Jansen, all as closers, for a total of $13. That’s how you put together a pitcher staff without spending big dollars on closers. I finished second in the league in saves even with the injuries to Sergio Santos/Robertson and the Giants stubbornness in not using Romo as the closer until late in the year.

Missed substantial time on DL: Utley, Sandoval, Upton, Crawford, Santos, Robertson, Danks, Billingsley. When you lose that many guys in a 15 team league, it’s rough to play catchup. Not that I didn’t try considering that I had, at one time or another, 44 hitters and 25 pitchers work their way through my lineup.

CONGRATS: Cory Schwartz who won the league. Greatest celebration picture ever by the way.

FINAL RESULT: 9/15. Just wasn’t meant to be this year.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust – Wk 8: Did We Learn Anything?

Monday’s I will be taking a look at the fantasy baseball game by breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances. This week it’s all about hot starting batters and pitchers – can they keep it up?

To get your daily fantasy baseball fix make sure you head over to DailyJoust.com to set your salary cap club.

GAINERS OF THE WEEK

Felix Doubront (+38, $288K in DailyJoust Salary)
He has won three of his last four starts, and over his last three outings he’s allowed only five runners to cross home plate (four earned). He continues to pile up the strikeouts, 16 in his last 11.2 innings and 53 in 50 innings on the year, showing his high upside arm. He’s still walked a few too many though with a 4.14 per nine mark, and he’s actually given up a ton of hard hit balls as well (25 percent line drive rate). It’s a big arm that Dubront owns, but I can forsee some inconsistency in his future.

Kevin Millwood (+123, $361K)
Where has this come from? I have no idea either. Over his last three starts Millwood has three victories, has allowed only five hits and a mere run while striking out 15 in 22 innings. Millwood hasn’t pitched like this since, jeez, probably back in 2005. He’s not going to keep this up, his 3.72 ERA and 1.29 WHIP marks are unlikely to hold, but he is locked in right now and may make a nice matchup play, especially when pitching at home.

Jonathon Niese (+44, $219K)
Niese has an over four ERA, and that 1.31 WHIP is solid but not great. Still, there are seeds of success here. Niese has a 7.87 K/9 mark, a solid total, but he needs to bring down the 3.58 walk per nine mark (it’s 3.06 for his career). If he reigns in the free passes, and keeps that impressive 1.88 GB/FB ratio going, he’s bound to drop that ERA into the 3′s.

Mark Teixeira (+37, $112K)
You can only keep a good man down for so long. Dealing with a nasty respiratory issue Tex’s bat has finally awoken. Mark has come alive at the dish with eight hits the last three days including three big flies and eight RBI. He’s pushed his average up to a more palatable .254, and don’t forget that, for whatever reason, Teixeira always seems to improve each year as the weather warms.

Alex Rios (+24, $99K)
Alex Rios is hitting a solid .281 on the year, and he has eight hits in his last five games. Included in those eight hits are three homers and nine RBI as he’s also tossed in a steal, his fifth of the year. He still has a long ways to go to live up to my expectations for him, but his current pace certainly looks a lot more impressive thanks to his hot week at the dish.

LOSERS OF THE WEEK

Josh Bell (-34, $55K)
I’m sorry folks, but Josh Bell can’t hit. There I said it. It’s only been 13 at-bats but we’re looking at two hits an a .154 average for the D’backs “third baseman.” Per his modus operandi, all Bell has done is strike out (five) and never walk (zero free passes) leaving him with a total of 83 strikeouts in 233 at-bats, an awful total. Add in his six career walks and you have someone with a 0.07 BB/K mark for his career. I didn’t even know that was possible.

Lance Lynn (-70, $246K)
Lynn has failed to go more than six innings in his last four starts, and he’s also allowed 10 runs over his last three outings leading to a 5.00 ERA. Given his overall numbers which include a 2.54 ERA and 1.09 WHIP it’s not at all surprising to see Lynn start to fall back to earth a bit. He’s been impressive to this point, but there is regression forthcoming.

Alex Rodriguez (-21, $87K)
Hitting .297 with a .796 OPS, ARod is underperforming. He’s still on pace for about 20 homers, but that’s a far cry from the 30 we are used to seeing. His total of 19 RBI also puts him on pace for less than 80, and the last time that happened in a full season was – never (he’s never had fewer than 84 RBI in a season of 440 at-bats). At least he’s stolen six bases to give him some fantasy value while he tries to figure things out at the dish.

Mike Trout (-23, $88K)
Hitting .302 with four homers, 12 RBI, 18 runs and eight steals in just 27 games is an epic start to Trout’s career. Epic. There’s been some give in his game of late as he’s seen his average drop .048 points the past week as the strikeouts have started to pile up (he has eight in six games). What, you thought he was going to flash HOF levels of production in his first full season?

Ben Zobrist (-19, $64K)
Zobrist is hitting .206. Awful. What makes it even more odd is the fact that he is barely hitting .200 despite the fact that he has three more walks than strikeouts (35 to 32). As a result of the free passes his .352 OBP is only one point short of the .353 mark he had last year when he batted .269. On pace to pretty much match last years total of 20 homers, though to fall well behind in RBI/runs, Zobrist seems primed for a run of effectiveness, but for right now he is awfully cold at the dish.

DAILY CONTEST

Today you can sign up for the King Arthur’s $50 Free Roll on DailyJoust. No entry free is required to get a chance to play the game and earn your free chance to take home part of the $50 prize pool. All games that start at 7:05 PM EDT or later are open to add players to your daily fantasy baseball squad. So get over to DailyJoust, put together your one day lineup, and get ready to win some free $.

By Ray Flowers

Tout Wars: A Review

 I was in New York over the weekend for Tout Wars. Looking to redeem myself after my LABR experience, I thought I would change my approach with Tout. The plan? Draft a good team, something that somewhat eluded me in Arizona.

After wading slowly into the mix in LABR, I decided to be a bit more aggressive this time out (probably a good idea I think we would all agree). In this 15 team mixed league I was able to roster a solid group of bats, but I really love my power pitching. Before I get emails from all of you saying ‘but Ray, you always say don’t draft pitching early’ you have to realize two things. (1) Things are different at an auction. The amount of control that you have is exponentially greater so you can have a couple of “aces” an not necessarily miss out on bats. If you take an SP in the 2nd round in a snake-draft you miss out on a big time hitter. In an auction there are no rounds to worry about so you can add Roy Halladay and still get Prince Fielder if you want instead of just being able to get either/or in the second round of an snake draft. (2) If there is value present, I’m going to jump into the mix. Check out the names that I was able to roster for my staff:

Cliff Lee ($26), Felix Hernandez ($23), John Danks ($3), Chad Billingsley ($3), Ricky Nolasco ($3), Sergio Santos ($13), Kenley Jansen ($6), Sergio Romo ($4) and Tyler Clippard ($3)

I know, I know, you’re saying to yourself ‘Ray, when is the love affair with Billingsley and Nolasco going to end?’ My response is that I’m a glutton for punishment. Billingsley should offer a moderate bounce back from last season, an I always, an I mean every season, point out how Nolasco has great skills even if he’s rarely able to put things together. You also read about Danks in his Player Profile, right? He’s a nice rebound candidate since he actually pitched better last year than he did in 2010. As for the bullpen arms, I have to say I’m pretty darn excited about the group. Jansen is one of the best arms in the game, and Santos was great as a first year closer last year. In San Francisco Brian Wilson doesn’t appear to be 100 percent, while Drew Storen is dealing with some health issues of his own in Washington. It wouldn’t take a whole hell of a lot for Clippard and Romo to pick up at least a few saves. For good measure, I also added James McDonald in the reserve rounds, along with David Robertson. McDonald has a great arm and showed some nice signs of growth last year with the Pirates. Robertson continues to impress after injuring his foot, and he’ll slide in well with my stable of power arms out of the pen.

On offense, a moderate approach was key. Here’s what I ended up with:

C: Kurt Suzuki ($7), John Buck (4)
1B: Carlos Lee (8)
2B: Chase Utley (6)
3B: Pablo Sandoval (23)
SS: Derek Jeter (13)
MI/CI: Dustin Ackley (8) Gaby Sanchez (12)
OF: B.J. Upton (27) Nelson Cruz (20), Carl Crawford (18), Alex Rios (13), Denard Span (2)
UT: Danny Espinosa (8)

Watch me lock down Dustin Ackley in the bidding.

Remember, this is a 15 team league, so guys like Lee and Sanchez at first and corner infield, while not even remotely exciting, provide plenty of counting stat production. You’ll notice Utley as my “starter” at second, and you’re likely thinking – huh? But for $6, and he was tossed out there relatively early in the draft, I felt like it was a risk worth taking. I felt even better about it when I was able to roster Dustin Ackley and Danny Espinosa for a combined $16 to handle second and middle infield if Utley is a waste. I mean, Jemile Weeks went for $16 by his lonesome. I like Weeks’ speed, but I’d certainly rather have Ackley and Espinosa for the same cost. Jeter is boring, but he was the last shortstop I trusted on the board other than Alexei Ramirez. The White Sox shortstop was brought up a couple of players after Jeter and he went for $17. Cruz and Crawford in the outfield are health risk, but for $38? There were probably leagues last year where Crawford went for that by his lonesome. I love B.J. Upton. Here’s why. I’m also a big fan of Alex Rios, see his Player Profile, and thought $13 was just right for his services (I have him at that cost in the 2012 BBGuys Draft Guide). Span may not excite you, but if he can stay healthy hitting atop the Twins order, then he could be a strong, cheap, option for my club. For support in the reserve round I added Aubrey Huff and Danny Valencia. Rather boring no doubt, but if they knock in 80 runs while not killing my average, I won’t mind too much.

I’d like to thank our gracious host, SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio, for putting on a great event this past weekend (here’s a picture of me in action). The studio looked amazing, right across the street from Radio City Music Hall, and Howard Stern’s studio was right next door (I still can’t believe they pay a guy $100 million a year to talk  about nude ladies and sex. I’d do that for a hundredth of that. Heck, I might do it for free).

Gotta say, I wasn’t overly impressed by NYC. I hadn’t been there since I was 16 so I was looking forward to a big bash of late night shenanigans. While we did get into some trouble, the fact that we wandered around New York at 3 AM and couldn’t find a place to get something to eat – simply amazing. Isn’t there supposed to be a late night pizza place open all night on every corner?

 Click here for a review of all the selections in the Mixed Tout Wars League.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Adam Dunn

“Any list of the biggest failures in 2011 has to start with Adam Dunn (.159-11-42 in 496 at-bats. I still can’t believe he was that atrocious). However, a teammate of Dunn’s also has to be in the top-10 [Alex Rios]…” That was my opening to my Alex Rios Player Profile from back in November of 2011. Today I’ll complete that thought by discussing the most pathetic performer of 2011 – Mr. Adam Dunn.

Some history.

From 2004-2010 Dunn hit at least 38 homers each year. Only one man in history has a run of more than 7-straight years of hitting 38 or more homers each season. It’s not Babe Ruth who tied with Dunn at seven (1926-32), or Barry Bonds who never did it more than five years in a row (2000-04). The answer to this riddle is actually Rafael Palmeiro (1995-2003).

From 2004-10 Dunn had at least 92 RBI each year. That’s well short of the record of 13-straight such seasons held by Lou Gehrig, Jimmie Foxx and Alex Rodriguez. Still, only five men were able to hit that total each year from 2004-10: Albert Pujols, Arod, Mark Teixeira, Miguel Cabrera and Dunn.

From 2004-10 Dunn scored at least 79 runs each season. Only six others joined Dunn in that group: Bobby Abreu, Teixeira, Pujols, Cabrera, Derek Jeter and Johnny Damon.

All told, how many big leaguer posted a line of 38 homers, 92 RBI and 79 runs scored each year from 2004-10? The answer is one – Adam Dunn.

So what the hell happened in 2011 to the then 32 year old slugger? Some thoughts.

Maybe he wasn’t totally comfortable in his new home in Chicago?

Maybe the pressure of a big money deal got to him (4-years, $56 million)?

Maybe he lost confidence when he struggled?

Maybe health woes, like his appendicitis, ruined his timing?

Maybe he didn’t like being the DH? He hit mere .176 with a. 621 OPS in 81 such games (to be honest though, those numbers were better than his overall totals of .159 and .569).

Let’s get past the maybe’s and look at the raw data.

As I’ve laid out, there wasn’t a more consistent power hitter in the game than Dunn. At 32 years of age, in a ballpark that benefits hitters, there was zero reason to expect a collapse in 2011. In fact, you’d be hard pressed to roll the calendar back 12 months and find anyone who had a bad thing to say about Dunn as most expected the move to Chicago to lead to at least, at the very worst, a replication, of his 2010 effort (.260-38-103-85). What happened then?

Did he walk less than normal? Nope. His 15.1 percent walk rate was pretty much a match for his 16.2 percent career rate.

Did he strike out more than normal? Heck yes he did. A career 27.6 K rate is terrible, but last season that number grew to epic proportions as it ended up at 35.7 percent. That was only the second time in his career that the mark was over 29 percent.

Did his hit type change? Not if you judge him by his GB/FB rate which was 0.68, a near identical match to his career rate of 0.71 percent. As for his line drive rate it was 20.0 percent. Not only was that mark his third best since 2003, it was also above his 19.6 career rate. So he hit as many grounders, liners and fly balls as normal. Wait, what? I know, it makes no sense does it? Dunn was pretty much the same hitter as always in terms of these three categories. The real issue though was two-fold. (1) His BABIP shrunk to a career worst .240 (career .292). 2011 was only the second time since 2004 that his BABIP mark was under .276. Given a career norm in the line drive category, that dip in BABIP really isn’t explainable, at least not simply (a loss of bat speed, bad luck, etc.). (2) For each season from 2003-10, Dunn had produced a HR/F ratio of 20.8 percent. In 2011 that number dropped to 9.6 percent. To state is another way, Dunn went from being elite to league average overnight. That just doesn’t happen.

Given the totality of his career, his age, and his home ballpark, I find it nearly impossible to predict another outage in 2012. The question is, how much will Dunn bounce back? Admittedly I’m a big fan of the Big Donkey, but I think the data leads to that point of view. If I had to put a floor on his production I’d think 2002 (.249-26-71-84). However, I’m not ruling out a return to 35-90-90 levels because I really cannot explain what the hell went wrong in 2011. Maybe he ticked off a practitioner of the dark arts who put a whammy on him. I’m not going to draft Dunn as my starter at first base, but if falls out of the top-20 at first base, like he’s currently ranked at Fleaflicker, then sign up Mr. Dunn for my squad.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Alex Rios

Any list of the biggest failures in 2011 has to start with Adam Dunn (.159-11-42 in 496 at-bats. I still can’t believe he was that atrocious). However, a teammate of Dunn’s also has to be in the top-10, and he is the topic of my piece today.

Alex Rios was an elite performer in 2010 in his first full season with the White Sox. Rios hit a solid .284, socked 21 homers and knocked in 88 runs. He also managed to record 89 runs scored, and for good measure he tossed in 34 steals. Those numbers left him as the only man in baseball to go .280-20-85-85-30 in 2010. So how in the world did he go from being an elite option in 2010 to an embarrassment in 2011 as he produced a line of .227-13-44-64-11? The knee jerk reaction is that he played over his head in 2011 and that he simply sucks. However, that’s far too simplistic a look for me.

BATTING AVERAGE
Rios has hit .275 for his career. From 2006-08 he hit at least .291 each season, and four times in five years from 2006-10 he hit at least .284. So how in the world did he fall to .227 in ’11? Did he fail to square up the ball? In fact, he did a decent job in that category. Rios posted a 18.4 percent line drive mark that is just 0.8 below his career rate. It was also a 3-year high. Did he have problems with pitch recognition? Well, he did walk at his worst rate (4.7 percent), but since he also struck out less than ever before (2.5 percent better than ever before actually) his 0.40 BB/K mark was right on his career average of 0.39. Was his ground ball to fly ball ratio jacked up? No it wasn’t. Rios posted a 1.08 GB/FB mark, right in line with expectations given his 1.14 career mark. So why the hell did his average dip .050 points in 2011? Can you say bad luck? Rios produced a .237 BABIP despite pretty much everything else looking “normal.” That BABIP was a career worst, it had never been below .273, and was light years removed from his .306 career mark. What I’m saying is that, honestly, Rios didn’t deserve the batting average he produced in 2011.

HOME RUNS
I mentioned Rios’ GB/FB rate above and how it was stable when compared to his career rate. The same could be said about his fly ball rate. Rios owns a mark of 37.7 percent in his career an in 2011 he posted a 39.3 rate. So if he hit as many fly balls as normal, why the dip in his homer rate? Well, he undershot his HR/F rate of 8.7 percent with a mark of 7.0, a seven year low. That certainly had a large part to do with it.

RBI/RUNS SCORED
It’s pretty easy here. When you don’t get hits, it’s hard to knock in runs. When you don’t get hits or take walks to get on base, you just don’t score runs. Just think of it this way. Rios posted a .265 OBP in 2011. His career batting average is .275. Makes no sense right? For the record, his career OBP is still a poor .323, but it’s vastly superior to the embarrassing number he posted in ’11. For the record Part II: from 2006-10 Rios averaged 81 RBI and 85 runs scored a season.

STEALS
Rios swiped a career best 34 bags in 2010 and he also stole 32 bases in 2008. Moreover, from 2008-10 he averaged 30 steals a year so he’d clearly established himself as a fantasy force in that category. So what happened in 2011? You do remember that his OBP was .265 right? He just wasn’t ever on base to steal a bag, and even when he tried to run his success rate was awful at 64.7 percent (his success rate the three previous years were 80.0, 82.8 and 70.8 percent).

Alex Rios will be 31 years old in February, so he’s certainly not at an age when skills erosion seems the likely culprit for his 2011 failures. Rios though has always run hot and cold, it’s just how it is with him, and it’s something you have to be prepared to live with if you roster him. Unfortunately, his cold streak last year lasted almost the entire season. Still, there seems to be little reason to doubt that 2012 should produce better numbers because, if truth be told, he really wasn’t that far “off” in 2011 despite the horrible numbers he ended the year with. Buy him on the cheap, cause he will be cheap, and you’ll likely reap the benefits of a player who will enjoy a nice bounce back season.

By Ray Flowers

2011 Positional Review – Outfield

You remember back to March when I gave away all my position player rankings for free, right? For those of you who want to revisit my greatest hits, here’s where you would go to get all my rankings for hitters – 2011: BBGuys Hitter Capsules.

I’ll review my top-10 predictions at each position as well as point out my biggest “hit” outside of the top-10 and my biggest “bust.”

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

SECOND BASE

THIRD BASE

SHORTSTOP

2011 OUTFIELD Top-20
1 Ryan Braun
2 Carl Crawford
3 Matt Holliday
4 Carlos Gonzalez
5 Nelson Cruz
6 Josh Hamilton
7 Matt Kemp
8 Andrew McCutchen
9 Shin-Soo Choo
10 Jason Heyward
11 Alex Rios
12 Justin Upton
13 Andre Ethier
14 Hunter Pence
15 B.J. Upton
16 Ichiro Suzuki
17 Jayson Werth
18 Jay Bruce
19 Shane Victorino
20 Chris Young

Braun was amazing in 2011. You can read all about that in Braun: Best of the Bunch.

Crawford was a disaster in 2011. You can read all about that in Carl Crawford: Total Failure.

Holliday had all kinds of issue this year (appendicitis, a quad, a finger, a bug in his ear), and in the end it hindered his performance. Holliday still was productive hitting .296 with a .912 OPS, and his pace over 550 at-bats would have equated to 27 homers, 92 RBI and 102 runs scored. Too bad he appeared in just 124 games.

Gonzalez was injured multiple times, but don’t let that fool you, he still had a fine fantasy season (.295-26-92-92-20 in 481 ABs) even if it failed to live up to his unrepeatable 2010 effort (.336-34-117-11-26 in 587 ABs). There are few better five category options in the game.

Cruz has been killing it in the playoffs, a sure sign that if he could ever stay healthy he’d produce a truly special season. Cruz had 29 homers and 87 RBI during the year, but with 475 at-bats he failed yet again to stay healthy long enough to post his first 500 at-bat season.

Hamilton was injured, again (what a shock), as he appeared in just 121 games. However, whenever he was on the field he was darn productive as he hit .298 with 25 homers, 94 RBI, 80 runs scored and eight steals.

Kemp was the best player in fantasy baseball in 2011. Kemp finished one homer short of going 40/40 as he hit .324 with 126 RBI and 115 runs scored. Kemp led the NL in homers and RBI, and finished just .013 points behind Jose Reyes to fall just short of the Triple Crown.

McCutchen was everything that was advertised for the Pirates going 20/20 (23 homers, 23 steals), scoring 87 runs and knocking in a career best 89. His average dipped from the .280s to just .259, but that number figures to rise in 2012.

Choo was injured multiple times resulting in a season of just 85 games. After hitting .300 the last two years, his .259 average was a major disappointment, and his .344 OBP was a career worst as well. He’s still got the skills to be a top-20 outfielder, but he’ll need health to prove it.

Heyward fell so far this season (.227-14-42-50-9), that even people in keeper leagues are worried about his long term value. Immensely talented, no so quiet whispers pen him as “soft.” After an impressive rookie season and a second year flop, there may be no one in the game with more to prove.

Rios was an abject failure hitting .227 with 13 homers, 44 RBI, 64 runs scored and 11 steals. How bad were things? His .265 OBP was .010 points below his career batting average. Too talented to do this again, his BABIP (.237 versus a career .306 mark) should rebound next season, so don’t overlook him on draft day 2012.

Upton had another outstanding season for the D’backs. He posted his second 20/20 season with a career best 31 homers and 21 steals, and he also scored a career-high 105 runs. Throw in that .289 average and .898 OPS and we have an excellent all-around performer who just might be able to take his game up another notch.

Ethier hit .292 with a .368 OBP, right on his career averages (.291 and .364). Unfortunately, he hit a meager 11 homers, knocked in only 62 runs and scored just 67 times. There’s no way of sugarcoating what was a poor season made even worse by how well it started out (he hit .380 over his first 28 games).

Pence ended the year with the Phillies after getting out of the exile that was playing for the Astros. All told he had yet another, well, Pence like season resulting in 22 homers, 97 RBI, 84 runs, eight steals an a .314 average. The average an RBI marks were career bests for the ultra consistent performer.

Upton had another up and down effort for the Rays as he hit a mere .243 with a third straight season of 150+ Ks. However, he also was one homer and one RBI off his career bests (he hit 23 bombs with 81 RBIs), scored 82 runs and swiped 36 bases. He was one of the more productive outfielders in baseball if you could look past the batting average.

Suzuki finally lost it, and by “it” I don’t mean his virginity, I mean his streak of hitting .300 with 200 hits as he batted .272 with 184 hits to end his 10-year run. He still offered production with 80 runs and 40 steals, but given the cost it took to acquire him on draft day he was a substantial disappointment.

Werth was always going to lose some of his production moving from a great park with a great lineup in Philly, but he really stunk it up in certain respects in 2011. It’s fair to say he had some value, he was only one steal short of a 20/20 effort, but he hit .232, posted a 7-year low in OBP (.330) and only drove in 58 runs after averaging 92 the previous two seasons.

Bruce hit an impressive 32 homers, fell just three RBI short of his first 100 RBI campaign, and scored a career best 84 runs. Still, he was wildly inconsistent driving his owners mad (.342-12-33 in May, .241-11-40 over his last 69 games).

Victorino just goes out and gets it done year after year. He hit .279, spot on his career mark, and for the fourth straight year scored at least 84 runs (he had 95) while he hit 17 homers (one off his career best), and stole 19 bags (though that was a 5-year low).

Young hit an awful .236 including a stupefyingly low .193 in the second half, but the guy still did his best Mike Cameron impersonation with 20 homers, 71 RBI, 89 runs scored and 22 steals.

Busts: Carl Crawford #2, Shin-Soo Choo #9, Jason Heyward #10, Alex Rios #11, Andre Ethier #13, Ichiro Suzuki #16, Jayson Werth #17

There were so many busts in the outfield, I’m not even gonna list any “hits.”

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: September 7, 2011

(1)  Albert Pujols on cusp of history – yet again.

(2) Stephen Strasburg phenomenal in his first start with Nats.

(3) V-Mart mighty impressive, minus the homers.

(4) Ian Kinsler trying to do something only one other 2B has ever done.

(5) Alex Rios – worth a play in the month of September?

By Ray Flowers