Buy Low: All-Star Edition, Outfielders

photo © 2011 Keith Allison | more info (via: Wylio)

A few days ago I posted my Buy Low options for the infield. Today, I continue my journey by moving on to the outfield where I’ll suggest purchasing guys which appears to be on their last legs but actually may not be.

Carl Crawford: .243-6-31-33-8 in 263 ABs
I’m going down with the ship. Back in January I championed Crawford in Pick Your Poison: Crawford or Tulo where I pointed out that in six of the past seven years Crawford was in the top-15 amongst all hitters in the fantasy game. The only time he missed was 2008 when he was injured. Clearly he has no shot of reaching that level in 2011, but he should be back on the field within a week (hamstring) with history  taunting us. Will you bite with the expectation that Crawford will return to being the disruptive force he has always been, or are you going to wallow in your wet socks and expect him to struggle like he did at the start of the year?

Jason Heyward: .226-9-22-31-5 in 230 ABs
Heyward has been one of the biggest disappointments in the game this season, and I’ve heard of people in 12 team leagues who have dealt him for players like Josh Willingham and Darwin Barney, or flat out released him. I certainly hope you weren’t one of those people. Heyward has been called out by the team and his teammates for being “soft” which has led to many in the fantasy game questioning his career path. Don’t be one of those people. I continue to say it, but let me repeat it – the young man, he’s just 21, has Hall of Fame talent. I’ll take a chance on skills like this anytime.

Alex Rios: .213-6-21-41-6 in 320 ABs
Ozzie Guillen has show remarkable patience with Rios be it because he is stubborn, or because he is looking at the facts. (1) Rios has hit at least 15 homers with 71 RBI, 63 runs and 15 steals each of the past five years. Only he and Bobby Abreu have done that. I’m NOT saying he gets there this season, but you don’t just throw out 5-straight seasons like that when a guy is only 31 years old. (2) His BB/K rate is better than his career average (0.62 to 0.40). His GB/FB ratio of 1.15 is an exact match for his career mark. His 17.4 percent LD-rate is down from his career level but it would still be a three year high. His BABIP is only .221, some .088 points below his career mark. Only once in his career did he finish a season below .300 and that was .273 in 2009. His HR/F mark is 5.5 and that would be a career low. Add that all up and a rebound certainly seems possible for a player who should still be in his prime.

Ichiro Suzuki: .270-1-23-46-23 in 374 ABs
In 10 seasons Ichiro has never failed to hit .300 with 200 hits and 25 steals. He’s gonna blow past the steals mark yet again, but the other two categories are in doubt (he is on pace for 180 hits). Ichiro has hit .323 in the second half in his career, and he’s going to need a push like that to get to .300. Given that he working on his best BB/K mark since 2002, he should have a shot. His current line drive rate is also a three year high, and he’s not hitting the ball in the air at all which should help (his fly ball rate would be his second worst, or in this case best, mark). A .354 BABIP producer, he’s only had one season in his career under .333. You think that his current.293 mark is gonna stay that low even as his age advances?

Jason Werth: .215-10-31-40-11 in 326 ABs
When you sign a deal that well in excess of $100 million dollar expectations will follow. Has he lived up to those expectations? The answer is a resounding no. He’s got a career worst LD-rate (16.0 percent), a career worst GB-rate (45.2 percent), a five year worst in the HR/F category (10.6 percent) and a career worst BABIP (.258). The two numbers really stick out though. Over the past five years Werth has always had a HR/F rate of at least 13.3 percent, and his career mark is 15.5. That’s substantially better than we’ve seen from him so far. Also, his BABIP is .323 in his career and has never been under .304 in a season. You really think he’s gonna undershoot that by .050 points this season? Werth is also on pace to produce 18 homers, 56 RBI, 72 runs and 20 steals this season. While that’s a far fry from his 2010 effort (27-85-106-13), considering that he can’t really perform any worse than he currently is has got to leave some hope that better days lay ahead, doesn’t it?

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June 8, 2011

(1) Jake Peavy to DL with groin issue.

(2) Adam Dunn to get a few days off as did Alex Rios in an attempt to wake both up.

(3) Knees bothering Jimmy Rollins and Mark Teixeira.

(4) Carl Pavano pitching well of late, really.

(5) Justin Masterson has no wins in eight starts despite pitching well.

(5) Jason Heyward called out by Chipper Jones.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: June 7, 2011

photo © 2008 Dave Nakayama | more info (via: Wylio)

Here are the answers to some of the questions that I have recently received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Am I crazy to Consider dropping Adam Dunn for Anthony Rizzo? Dunn is killing me.
– @Dorman06

Allow me to be stupid for a moment.

For each of the past seven years Adam Dunn has hit 38 homers with 92 RBI. How many such seasons has Anthony Rizzo ever had? Obviously the answer is zero. In fact, Rizzo’s minor league high for homers is 25.

Dunn has been beyond horrible hitting even worse than teammate Alex Rios at .176 with five homers through 188 at-bats causing people to flee like he has the bubonic plague, so let me ask you – do you really think that a guy who is 31 years old just lost “it” overnight? My point is that his own history, as well as common sense, should be telling you that at some point the light will click on and he will return to being the power bat he always has. The question is, will that occur in time for him to be a more productive bat than Rizzo in 2011?

Rizzo is a luminous prospect who is just killing it in Triple-A this season hitting .365 with 16 homers and 63 RBI through a mere 52 games. The Padres have started to use Brad Hawpe in the outfield with the expectation that Rizzo will take over at first base at some point in the very near future (perhaps this week). However, there are some real concerns that should be voiced here.

(1) For every Eric Hosmer who just shows up hitting, there are twenty Justin Smoak’s who take a while to figure it out. The transition from the minors to the majors is a massive step, and not all youngsters are capable of making the needed adjustments right off the bat.

(2) The Padres have the worst batting average (.231), the lowest OBP (.300), the worst SLG (.335) and the fewest runs scored (231) in the National League. That sure doesn’t sound like there is a great supporting cast awaiting Rizzo in San Diego, does it?

(3) Petco Park is murder on power hitters. The last three years, according to Park Indices, Petco is the worst park in the National League for home runs (22 percent below the league average). It’s even more dreadful when it comes to left-handed power hitters. Oh it’s still dead last in the NL, but for lefties the Park Indices mark is 59 or 41 percent below the league average. There isn’t a harder park in baseball for a left-handed power hitter, and its just not power that Petco saps. Over the past three years the yard is also last in the NL in average, doubles, and runs scored. It’s a brutal hitting environment.

So what would I do? As great as Rizzo has been this season down on the farm, and as poorly as Dunn has performed in his first year with the White Sox, I’m still going to suggest staying with Dunn. I keep coming back to the obvious fact, and that is that Rizzo doesn’t have a single at-bat in the majors while Dunn is still working on a steak of 7-straight seasons of 38 homers and 92 RBI, the second longest streak in the history of the game (the record of nine is held by Rafael Palmeiro, while Babe Ruth is tied with Dunn at seven). Rizzo could easily be an all-star one day, but for now, I’m going with the proven commodity, even if he is struggling right now.

I’m curious why you have Jaime Garcia out of the Top-50 in your ROTW pitcher rankings?
– Mike

For those of you wondering what Mike is talking about, I released my Rest of the Way rankings recently, and I listed Garcia at 51st amongst starting pitchers (for the entire list you can read ROTW Rankings: Pitchers. There is also a link in that piece to my ROTW rankings for hitters). So we are all clear, by ROTW rankings I mean from here on only, i.e. I’m not counting numbers that have been posted to this point of  the season.

So why am I so “down” on Garcia? Some thoughts.

(1) Even at #51 overall, if we are talking about a 12-team mixed league, I’m saying Garcia will have a shot to a #4 starting pitcher in the fantasy game the rest of the way, so I’m not really that down on him.

(2) Garcia’s never thrown 175 innings in a season. Garcia has had multiple issues with his arm, and with it being so valuable, there are more than a couple of reasons that the Cardinals could limit him to 180-190 innings this season after keeping him to 163.1 innings last season. Such a decision would obviously curtail Garcia’s value, that is if he can stay healthy.

(3) Garcia has upped his K/9 mark from 7.27 last year to 8.33 while seeing his walk rate per nine dip from 3.53 to 2.11. It’s tough to believe he will be able to keep his K/9 rate a batter above last season while also keeping his walked rate a batter and a half below his ’10 mark. Pitchers just don’t make jumps like that in both categories from one year to the next.

(4) A first rate ground ball pitcher, Garcia’s GB-rate has regressed slightly from 56 percent to 53 percent. It’s still a superb mark, and perhaps the level will raise the rest of the season, but it should be monitored, especially when we consider that his fly ball rate is up five percent from 26 to 31 percent.

Garcia’s taking his whole game to the next level. Can he stay there? That is certainly possible. But his numbers were already strong last year before this season’s growth, and when you add in his career long durability issues I’m just leery that the rest of the season will match his hot start.

Brent Lillibridge continues to see PT. Is he worth a bench spot in a 14-team mixer?
– @baseballjunkie

With Alex Rios continuing to hit like a 5th outfielder just hoping to hold on to a big league roster spot (.199/.253/.301), Lillibridge has been getting a look in the outfield for the White Sox.

Let’s keep things in perspective here. Lillibridge had three homers in 273 at-bats entering the year, so his total of seven in 77 at-bats sure seems like an outlier. This is confirmed by looking at his minor league numbers which included one homer every 47.7 at-bats (currently that mark is one every 11). Coming into this season Lillibridge had hit .194 with a .551 OPS as a big leaguer. His average is up about .100 points to .286 this season and his OPS has nearly doubled (1.008). During nearly 2,000 minor league at-bats he has hit .268 with a .758 OPS, so obviously his current level of production seems ridiculous. Lillibridge can steal bases, and with a full season of work 20 steals, his current pace, does seem like a pace he can keep up. Still, other than the steals, there seems to be no way that Lillibridge would be capable of sustaining his current level of production.

Do you add him in a 14 team league? You can if you need a pick me up, especially since he qualifies at second and the outfield, but realize nothing the previous three years in the bigs, or his six seasons in the minors, supports the bat that he is swinging right now.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 210 and XM 87.

Top-20 OFs for 2011

Taking a look back at 2010 and trying to project what will happen in 2011 is what we do at Fanball. To that end, Ted Carlson has been sending out assignments for us to rank our top options at each position for the 2011 season. Today, I’ll defend my rankings for the Top-20 Outfielders for 2011, focusing on two players that I was called out on in the article (I jest of course because Ted and I, more than anyone else on staff, seem to agree on a whole lot of this baseball stuff).

ALEX RIOS

Rios was ranked 5th, 8th twice, and 10th by the other four voters whereas I had him at 15th. Why was I lower on him than everyone else? My thoughts.

(1) I’m a big believer in consistency, and Rios has never been associated with that term in his life. In 2009 he hit .199 over his last 41 games to finish the year on an extreme down note. He wasn’t anywhere near that bad in 2010 but he did bat a puny .258 in the second half. In fact, he always seems to tire in the second half as his batting average dips .021 points after the All-Star break.

(2) His power isn’t anywhere near elite. Only twice has Rios hit 20-homers – he hit 21 in 2010 and 24 in 2007. With his build, and swing, more has always been expected in this category. However, Rios is about league average in his fly ball rate (career: 37.5 percent) and his HR/F mark (career: 8.9 percent), so he’ll likely be nothing more than a 20 homer threat, not that there is anything wrong with residing at that level. Speaking of a lack of consistency, he hit 11 homers in his first 47 games only to go deep a mere 10 more times in his last 100 games in 2010.

(3) He’s never been more than a solid producer of runs and RBI. Don’t get me wrong, there aren’t many guys out there who you can legitimately book for 80 and 80, but it should be pointed out that Rios has been under 80-RBI twice in the past three years, and he has averaged 81 runs scored the past three years.

(4) While he doesn’t strikeout too frequently (18.2 percent), he also doesn’t walk much (6.5 percent). As a result his career BB/K mark is 0.39, well below the big league average of about 0.50.

(5) Rios just doesn’t hit that many balls on a line. For the past two years he has failed to post a LD-rate of even 17 percent (the big league average is 19-20 percent). His career mark is also an ordinary 19.3 percent. Rios also owns a 1.15 GB/FB ratio, which again, is within hailing distance of the big league average.

(6) And finally, there is this. Here are his 3-year averages compared to Bobby Abreu

A.Rios: .275-18-79-81-30
Abreu: .281-18-94-95-25

I’m not saying I’d take the aging Abreu over Rios straight up, I wouldn’t, I’m just pointing out that while people reach on Rios in 2011 I’ll just wait five rounds and grab Bobby Abreu thank you.

JOSE BAUTISTA

Ted was totally right when he wrote “It was likely with great reluctance that Ray ranked him [20th].” Just how right was Ted with that line of thought? I won’t say he was as accurate as Copernicus who correctly postulated that the Sun, and not the Earth, was at the center of the universe, but he was pretty darn close. In fact, can I have a re-vote? There is very little chance that I will ever rank Bautista this high again, chalk it up to World Series insanity (my Giants, as you know, were playing in it) so enjoy it while it lasts Jays’ fans. I won’t rehash my thoughts on why Bautista will be a bust in 2010 here, I’ll instead just point you to my Breaking Down: Jose Bautista piece which elucidates my position very concisely including this rather memorable line. “Will Bautista be as productive in 2011 as he was in 2010? If he is, I’ll pose for Playgirl.”

I should have read my own article before I submitted my vote.

By Ray Flowers

Turn Back the Clock: Outfield

The outfield is the land of multi-category producing titans. The 2009 season was no different, though some of the men that were expected to provide those efforts failed to do so. In what follows I will discuss my top-10 list from the 2009 Fanball Annual Guide that was on newsstands prior to the start of the 2009 season, and briefly hit on how each players season turned out.

To read previous positional reviews click on the following link:

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

SECOND BASE

THIRD BASE

SHORTSTOP

1. Grady Sizemore

2. Carlos Beltran

3. Josh Hamilton

4. Ryan Braun

5. Ichiro Suzuki

6. Carl Crawford

7. Manny Ramirez

8. Matt Holliday

9. Alex Rios

10. B.J. Upton

Sizemore was derailed by injury, chiefly a strained elbow that required surgery (he also had hernia surgery). His performance simply killed teams that drafted him in the first round (.248-18-64-73-13) with all his 5×5 numbers being five year lows as he appeared in a mere 106 games.

Beltran has a lost season like so many other Mets. The chief injury was a bone bruise in his leg, more specifically his knee. As a result he appeared in just 81 games though he was exceedingly effective in his half season of work hitting a robust .325 with 10 homers, 48 RBI, 50 runs and 11 steals. Clearly he was on pace for a special season, but alas, injuries ruined his effort.

Hamilton had a bummer of a season that he kicked off with a wild bender during spring training that was kept under wraps (as a recovering addict, this was especially damaging news). I never thought he would repeat the 130 RBI, but I thought the 30-HR pop was certainly legit. Injuries limited him to just 89 games as he hit 10 homers with 54 RBI and a .741 OPS, only .160 points below his 2008 mark. Has a ton to prove in ’10.

Braun was a flat out stud and seems certain to be a top-5 selection in 2010 in almost every draft. Not only did he lead the NL with 203 hits, Braun also socked 32 long balls, drove in 114 runs, hit .320 and stole 20 bases. Not many have a legit shot at hitting .333 while going 20/20.

Suzuki started slowly due to injury, but you would never have known it if you looked at his final numbers that included 225 hits and a .352 average. Amazingly, the sorry Mariners only knocked him in 88 times on the year, and his steal total of 26 was actually a career worst, though no one should complain when you hit .352.

Crawford was an outright beast hitting .305 with 15 homers, 68 RBI, 96 runs and a career best 60-steals. Only one AL player bettered that steals total – Jacoby Ellsbury with 70, and he scored two less runs, hit only eight homers, and batted four points lower at .301.

Ramirez was suspended for 50 games for performance enhancing drugs, and with that his season was a bust. At the time of his suspension he was doing his best Albert Pujols impersonation hitting .355 with a 1.156 OPS through 36 games, but he returned to his a mere .255 with only 10 homers and 34 RBI in 68 games.

Holliday was, as I wrote prior to the start of last season in the aforementioned magazine, terrific. “He won’t be the Coors version of Holliday, but he should still be near the elite.” Compare his 2008 performance in Coors (.321-25-88-107-28) to his 2009 work in Oakland and St. Louis (.313-24-109-94-14). Seems like I hit this one out of the park.

Rios was an unmitigated disaster. Simply atrocious. Though he nearly went 20/20 (17 homers, 24 steals), he hit a paltry .247 with only 17 homers and 71 RBI. After his trade to the White Sox he apparently forgot how to play baseball as 41 games in Chicago netted a .199 average, nine RBI and 11 runs scored. Pathetic.

B.J. was the wrong Upton to place on the list. B.J. floundered to a .241 average with 11 homers, 55 RBI, 79 runs and 42 steals, while younger brother Justin simply tore it up in the desert on his way to hitting .300 with 26 homers, 86 RBI, 84 runs and 20 steals.

By Ray Flowers

Something for the Weekend

The weekend is upon us. I’m sure you all have plans to have a nice meal with your significant other, or at the very least to meet your homies somewhere to pull back on a few brews while ogling the opposite sex (at least that’s what I do when I’m out with my friends). If you have time to squeeze in some baseball, and I hope you do, here is just enough info to wet your whistle until we hit things full-time next week (you can join my Twitter following to get some of my thoughts over the weekend, cause you know I can’t stay away for too long – sports are in my blood).

I gave a quick snapshot on my thoughts about some of the prospects I witnessed firsthand in the Arizona Fall League in my piece titled AFL Impressions. For a bit more depth on some of those players make sure you give Jason Collette’s piece, AFL Review, a read. And yes, we both noticed how young and smallish looking Buster Posey appears to be.

Jeff Francoeur might end up with the Mets long-term after all, he is under their control through 2012 if they abide by the arbitration process, as the team might be interested in signing him to an extended contract. Honestly, the guy has been mostly a mess the past couple of seasons, but he is just 26 years old and hit .311 with 10 homers and 41 RBI in just 75 games with the Mets. He still has simply atrocious plate discipline, he has 104 walks since the start of the 2007 season or just three less than his former teammate Chipper Jones had last season, but he still has one live stick. If someone could just teach him some strike zone control Frenchie really could be something.

Braden Looper will not be back with the Brewers in 2010 after his option of $6.5 million was declined by the club. Seems like the Brewers would prefer not to give the aging innings eater another 34 starts since he posted a 5.22 ERA while allowing the most long balls in baseball, an amazing total of 39. Maybe he should go to the New York Yankees and that explosive home park of theirs – I’m sure that would help him to reign in that trend.

Ben Sheets – remember him? You know, the guy who owns a 3.72 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and a 7.60 K/9 mark in his career. Last we saw him was 2008 when he went 13-9 with a 3.09 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP for the Brewers. Alas, he ended the year injured, and then missed all of the 2009 season following surgery to his flexor tendon in his elbow. After a few reports that he was going to call it a career, his agent came out and said that his client fully intends on pitching, somewhere, in 2010. Dr. James Andrews performed the same surgery on Andy Pettitte back in 2004, and he has done pretty well since then. Will Sheets be able to follow that roadmap back to success?

Vernon Wells had surgery on his wrist, and as I wrote on my Twitter acct (you can access it below), Wells “should be fine for ’10. Though ‘fine’ is subjective after last year’s debacle.” I’ve watched the guys for years, and much like former teammate Alex Rios, if you catch him on the right day he clearly looks like a 5-tool monster on the field. Problem is Wells is often injured, and the Jays are being hindered in their attempts to improve their squad as they continue to operate under the onerous conditions of the massive dollars they threw at Wells a few years back (he is entering just the third of seven seasons on a deal worth $126 million). The Jays probably would have been better off giving that money to Roy Halladay, don’t you think? Still, don’t sleep on Wells on draft day. After all, just a season ago he hit .300 with 20 homers, and last year when he struggled to hit .260 with 15 homers he did swipe 17 bases to add plenty to his value.

Jack Wilson signed a 2-year deal worth $10 million to stay with the Mariners. That’s certainly better than the $8.4 million option he had that was turned down, but at the same time Wilson hit .255 with five homers, 39 RBI and 37 runs scored over 373 ABs. He still plays solid defense at 31 years of age, but man, doesn’t that seem like a lot of dough to give a guy who isn’t even major league average at the dish?

Don’t forget to visit my Twitter Account during the day for hourly updates about what is going on in the world of baseball.

By Ray Flowers

All Over the Place

Today was a long flipping day for this kid. As a result, my thoughts are a bit scattered as I write this (perhaps having something to do with the secondhand smoke I inhaled at a Nickelback concert last night – and yes, it wasn’t all cigarette smoke). Still, I hope this entry makes sense. If it doesn’t, perhaps I’ll go “bake” something else tonight. Oh stop it, you know I’m kidding.

Ryan Hanigan is hitting .272 this season, just one point below the .273 mark he has posted in his career. The man has all of two home runs in 224 at-bats this year, a terrible total, but it’s his shockingly pathetic mark of nine RBI this season that is so dreadful. Moreover Hanigan, who owns a superlative 1.29 BB/K mark, saw his average plummet before he ended up on the DL with a concussion (he should return next week). Hanigan was hitting .338 on July 17th only to finish the month on a 4-for-23 spell (.174) which then led into a .143 mark in August. Ugly.

Brandon Phillips isn’t a doctor, and apparently he didn’t pay much attention in school either. I have no ax to grind here, just being honest. Read his owns words. “My wrist is not broken. I didn’t mean to say broken,” Phillips said. I know I didn’t say ‘broken.’ I said ‘fracture.’ I didn’t know ‘fracture’ and ‘broken’ meant the same thing.” Really Brandon? I didn’t know that a homer was the same thing as home run either. Regardless, Phillips’ wrist injury has been part of the reason that he has gone deep only four times in his last 42 games. Still, he is on the verge of yet another 20/20 season with 18 homers and 22 steals on the year.

Speaking of moronic statements, no list would be complete without a reference to Chad Ochocinco who dropped this one on us the other day. “I’m going to carry the whole city just like Kobe (Bryant) carried the (Los Angeles) Lakers and LeBron (James) carried Cleveland. I’ve always wanted to be that guy. Now it’s time for me to do it…” Uh huh Chad. Anyone besides me think that maybe, just maybe, Chad doesn’t belong as the third leg of that triangle that is made up of Kobe and LeBron?

Ted Lilly has looked terrific since returning from surgery allowing just four runs in 27.2 innings to lower his ERA down to 3.17. He may have only 10 victories but with a 1.08 WHIP he has been a fantastic fantasy option.

The Giants bit the bullet and called up Buster Posey since Bengie Molina just can’t get over the hump with his quadriceps injury. The original plan was for the youngster not appear with the big league club this season, and in fact, there was some thought being given to Posey not even being with the Giants next year until after the All-Star break. Those plans were dashed when the Giants astutely realized that they need offense where they can find it, even if it comes from the youngster. Posey doesn’t figure to play more than a couple of times a week at best, Molina should return “soon,” so even in NL-only leagues Posey doesn’t merit much attention at this point. Still, Posey has hit .325 with 18 homers, 80 RBI and a .947 OPS in 422 minor league at-bats this season, so the kid can certainly mash.

You ever get the feeling that no matter what you do, you just don’t have a shot to win? I know that’s how I feel. On one club I have Alex Rios hitting .167 since he joined the White Sox 16 games ago, and my utility hitter, Jim Thome, is now nothing more than a pinch hitter with his trade to the Dodgers. Now comes word that the rock of the left side of my infield, Michael Young, will miss at least a couple of weeks with a strained hammy. He has often beaten estimates as they pertain to his return from injury in the past, but I wonder if it will matter for my squad. I do know this. Young will have to return and produce 15 hits for a seventh straight 185 hit season, and he could fall short of his career best total of 24 home runs as well (he has 22).

Miguel Tejada was hitting .362 on June 2nd making his current .298 batting average simply shocking. Tejada hit .298 in June and .307 in July so that is still perfectly fine, but his .212 mark in August has clearly dashed any hope he had of posting a career best in the batting average category (he hit .330 in ’06 and has a .288 career mark).

By Ray Flowers

Twists and Turns

Today is one of those days. It’s 95 degrees outside, I’ve been talking football while writing about the NHL and the NBA all day, and now it’s time to get back to my bread and butter – major league baseball. In what follows you can peruse a few of my thoughts on this fine Tuesday.

Over his last seven starts Edwin Jackson has thrown an average of 114 pitches an appearance and that includes two outing in his last three times on the hill when he only made it through four innings. That’s right, over his last three starts Jackson has averaged 112 pitches a game despite only throwing an average of 5.1 innings per start. His ERA has gone up from 2.49 to 2.79 in that stretch of seven games and though has lost only one outing, but I’m a bit worried about those pitch counts given that he is on pace to blow past his previous career-high of 183.1 innings from last season (he currently has 151.2 IP under his belt).

I gave my take on the Alex Rios to Blue Jays deal in the Daily Dose from Tuesday. I’m glad the team has sent Rios out of town. Now if they could also find a taker for Vernon Wells then maybe they would have enough money to sign impending free agents Marco Scutaro and Rod Barajas. Oh, and I love when GM J.P. Ricciardi said he is not under pressure from management to move money because a team without Rios and Wells would certainly be much better than one with Scutaro and Barajas. What a joke.

The Giants will activate Nate Schierholtz from the DL tonight and with his return the team might have to curtail the playing time of 12 year vet Randy Winn. “Whether I’m in there or not, I want to win and that’s it.” Winn said as he would love to end his stretch of playoff-less baseball (he has never appeared in the “second season” in his career). Normally the Giants would just continue to run Winn out there since he is the consummate professional, but honestly, with Eugenio Velez being so hot, yes Eugenio Velez, there isn’t likely to be a spot in the daily lineup for Winn with Nate S. back in the mix. Just how hot has Velez been? Since begin recalled from the minors he is hitting .417 with 11 RBI and 13 runs in just 14 games. Moreover, dating back to August of last year Velez is batting .330 over 221 at-bats, and don’t even lie to me and say you were aware of that fact.

I’ve watched Jonathan Sanchez very closely for a few years, and I’m just not one bit convinced that he will ever figure “it” out. The stuff if top flight but he key simply cannot repeat his mechanics often enough to throw strikes. They Giants need him today, especially because of the injury to Randy Johnson, but I wouldn’t be at all unhappy if the Giants moved Sanchez this offseason if they could get a bat. I’m already bald and don’t have much hair to pull out when Sanchez is throwing ball after ball.

I thought that Matt Wieters was going to reinvent the game of baseball in his image? Well the rook is hitting .263 with three home runs an a .683 OPS in his 179 at-bat season so far. Huh, that’s roughly the production the Orioles were receiving from, well what do you know, deposed starter and current Ray Greg Zaun who is hitting .242 with four home runs and a .719 OPS in 178 ABs.

Jordan Zimmerman will almost certainly undergo TJ surgery on his elbow. It’s amazing how many guys need to undergo the procedure these days. Think of it this way – if this was 1960 all of these guys who simply be out of baseball either because (a) their arm was so sore that they couldn’t pitch or (b) they would be getting lit up since their pitches would have no oomph to them. Still, I wonder why so many guys in the old days could throw 300+ innings year after year without an issue and nowadays if a guy throws 200-innings in a season a parade is held.

By Ray Flowers

Cry Baby Cry

We all can whine about the plight of our teams. I’m sure you all have a story about how you missed on the guy you wanted to draft by one selection, or the guy you drafted seems to think that the aim of the game is to swing and miss rather than ripping line drives all over the field. I get it, believe me. So I’m gonna let the tears flow today and let you know how upset I’ve become with a few of the guys I have selected for my various fantasy baseball teams in 2009.

Mike Aviles: I certainly didn’t think he was going to hit .325 again, but .183? Currently on the DL with a strained right forearm, Aviles will only need to go 20 for his next 20 to raise his average up to .300 when he returns. I feel that’s doable – you?

Grant Balfour: Last year 1.54 ERA and a 12.65 K/9. This year, 5.48 ERA and a 8.61 K/9. A regression was coming, but to half of last year’s value?

Chris Davis: Twelve home runs is great. A .194 batting average, not so much. He could set a record for futility as well as he is whiffing 46.7% of the time. That’s right, he already has 77 Ks this season in 165 ABs, or more strikeouts that Albert Pujols has had in any of the last seven seasons.

Joey Devine: The potential closer a year after posting a 0.59 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP, Devine didn’t throw a single regular season pitch before being sent to the DL and ultimately requiring elbow surgery costing him the entire season. Thanks Joey, not like I was counting on you for 30 saves or anything.

Rafael Furcal: Glad you had him in your top-5 at shortstop now that he is hitting .253 with one home run and three steals?

Corey Hart: What happened to that breakout campaign? After back-to-back 20/20 seasons he is barely on pace to go 20/10, though he is almost certain to set a career high in Ks with 50 in 48 games, almost halfway to last year’s worst of 109 in 157 games.

Howie Kendrick: The man can hit .300 in his sleep. He must be in a coma since he is batting .225.

Brandon Morrow: The Mariners’ reliever has a strong 8.22 K/9 mark. Oops. That’s his walks per nine inning mark. How amazingly putrid is that? By the way, his K/9 mark is 10.57.

Ricky Nolasco: So bad he was demoted to the minors where he has dominated in two starts. He has been exceedingly unlucky as his BABIP is astronomical at .402, but that doesn’t help to wick away the tears after he has posted a 9.07 ERA and a 1.81 WHIP through nine starts.

Alexei Ramirez: How had has he been this year? Despite the fact that he is batting .329 over his last 70 at-bats, the man is still hitting just .253 on the year. He is on pace for 30 steals, but the 10 home run pace is pretty awful for a guy who hit 21 last year in just 480 at-bats.

Alex Rios: Is he ever going to put it all together? His career best numbers across the board are .302-24-85-114-32. Currently he is on pace to hit about .275-22-80-80-12.

Jimmy Rollins: Hitting just .230 on the year, Rollins has only three home runs giving him 14 taters in his last 769 at-bats dating back to the start of 2008. Will you finally believe now that his 30 home run season of 2007 was a fluke?

Andy Sonnanstine: Luckily for him I drafted Nolasco or he would be feeling a lot more of my wrath for going 3-5 with a 7.66 ERA and a 1.78 WHIP.

Rickie Weeks: Out for the year with wrist surgery. What could have been considering he was on pace to hit more than 30 home runs with about 100 RBI and 100 runs.

Chris Young: 25/25 as a rookie. 20/10 as a second year player. On pace for 10/10 as a third year player. Flipping great.

By Ray Flowers

Friday's Fantasy Notes

As we head into what will be a glorious weekend of sports that includes NBA and NHL playoffs and game after game of MLB action, here are a few of the stories that really piqued my interest as I prepare myself to hit the shower and shave the old beard in my attempt, however feeble, to impress the ladies with my presence this weekend.

Rich Harden lasted just 3.2 innings on Friday against the Marlins as he was pounded for six hits, four walks and five runs as he left with a 5.11 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP through his five starts. Amazingly, he has 37 K in his 24.2 IP, good for a stupendous 13.50 K/9 mark despite all the struggles with the strike zone. He is a real mixed bag right now. He has lasted six innings in three of his starts but has failed to make it out of the fourth inning in the other two.

One is going up, the other going down. Hanley Ramirez finally returned to the action on Friday, his first appearance since injuring his hand on Monday when he was hit by a pitch. He struck out in his lone at-bat. Down south in Texas, Josh Hamilton and his sore rib cage has finally resulted in the team placing him on the DL (retroactive to April 27th meaning he will be eligible to return on May 12th). As a result, Andruw Jones just may be looking at an increase in playing time, and as crazy as it sounds, he might actually deserve it. Through 32 at-bats this season he is batting a fantastic .344 with a 1.304 OPS thanks to a total of three home runs and five doubles. He has also scored 12 runs in only 11 games, and just maybe he has turned the corner after looking about as useful as pocket lint last season.

When was the last time you caught Bull Durham starring Kevin Costner, Tim Robbins and Susan Sarandon? Do yourself a favor if its been a while, see it again. When the talk about classic sports movies, there may be no finer example on celluloid about baseball.

Ryan Theriot hit one home run last season in 580-AB. On Friday he went deep for the first time this season, in just his 22nd game, as he socked a grand slam. At the other end of the spectrum we have Carl Crawford who has the most at-bats this season without going deep (92). Only slightly better than him is Alex Rios who has gone deep just once in 101 ABs and Jacoby Ellsbury who has one tater in 94 ABs. As for Rios, what the hell has happened to his power at the dish? After going deep 24 times in 2007 Rios regressed to just 15 long balls last season and now sits with a grand total of 16 home runs in his last 736 at-bats. I don’t want to write the guy off, especially since I drafted him in multiple leagues this season, but that lack of pop is distressing, especially considering that he has swiped a mere two bags in 24 games this season.

The matchup everyone was hoping to see this NHL post season will happen as the Washington Capitals will face the Pittsburgh Penguins in Round 2. Three of the most luminous stars in the game will face off in Alexander Ovechkin, Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. While Crosby has been great in his young career, his star is in danger of being eclipsed due to the play of Ovechkin and Malkin, two of the three finalists for the Hart Trophy this season (the NHL MVP). It will be one hell of a series with other stars like Mike Green and Alexander Semin also involved, so if you are one of those people who still are unsure about the game of hockey, this could certainly be the series that pushes you to the opinion of this writer – it is a great game, perhaps the best that can be viewed in person with it’s combination of skill, speed and physicality.