2013 – Tout Wars

Tout Wars is one of the two exclusive fantasy baseball events each year (the other is LABR which I participated in earlier in March). Thanks to the powers that be I was invited to New York to put together a squad in Tout Wars for the second straight year. Below, you will see how my team came together, and I’ll give some thoughts about the entire weekend, which by the way, was a total blast (gotta be the greatest group of folks anyone can work with).

15 team mixed league auction.
14 hitters (2 C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI, CI, 5 OFs, UT)
nine pitchers (any mix of starters and relievers)
$260 salary cap

* This league is using OBP in place of batting average. It’s still a 5×5 league, just with that one change.

* Numbers in () are prices paid for each player.

* This league also has a shallow bench, only four spots. However, there is also an unlimited amount of DL spots beyond the four bench spots meaning a player on the DL does not take up a bench spot – i.e. players who start the year on the DL can be replaced with players off the waiver-wire.

C: John Jaso ($6), Tyler Flowers (4)
1B: Eric Hosmer (17)
2B: Howie Kendrick (12), Emilio Bonifacio (6), Daniel Murphy (Reserve)
3B: Martin Prado (14), Manny Machado (6), Pablo Sandoval (14), Alex Rodriguez (Res)
SS: Derek Jeter (7)
OF: Carlos Gonzalez (36), Bryce Harper (33), Domonic Brown (6), Jon Jay (4), Cameron Maybin (6), Billy Hamilton (Res)

STARTING PITCHERS: Brandon Morrow (13), Cliff Lee (23), Zack Greinke (14), Tim Hudson (4), Ryan Dempster (1), Edinson Volquez (Res)

RELIEF PITCHERS: Sergio Romo (16), Joel Hanrahan (11), Mike Adams (3), Jose Veras (4)

Jaso is a solid hitter, and in an OBP league he’s a lot better option than in “normal” leagues (he had an elite .394 OBP last season). Flowers an I are not related but can you blame me for drafting my namesake? He has power and his OBP should be about league average.

Hosmer has had a killer spring, and you know I expect a bounce back (see his Player Profile). Machado may not have a strong OBP, but the rest of his game should be very solid for the price. Sandoval has that elbow issue, so there is uncertainty. I could have used my money elsewhere (another arm perhaps, see below for more on that), but when I saw him sitting there for such a cheap price I had to take the plunge. A-Rod goes to the DL, and I’ll grab another player.

Kendrick will never get to the level some hoped for, but he’s always solid across the board (see his Player Profile). He does take a bit of a hit in an OBP league though. Murphy was a nice reserve round add. I’ll be able to place him on the DL and add another player (a shortstop), to fill out my lineup. Wait, how does Emilio qualify at second? In Tout there is a 15 game per position requirement, not 20. Emilio appeared in 15 games at second base last season. Prado also qualifies in the outfield, and by this point I think everyone knows I’m a big fan.

Jeter isn’t great, and it looks like he’ll miss the first week of the season, but for $7 who is gonna complain? Not I.

CarGo on my team everyone understands, but Harper? I like Harper, but I’m not predicting a top-10 season this year like others are. “So Ray, why is he on your team then?’ I tossed out Harper at $33 and then… crickets. I was very surprised that no one said $34. Did I miscalculate? Certainly seems that way, though it’s not an obnoxious bid (Stanton went for $34, the same Price as Justin Upton to make me feel a little better, but when other 20/20 types in the outfield went for much less – Choo $25, Cespedes $24, Heyward $31 – let’s just say I wasn’t overly excited). There is no doubt Harper has the talent to justify that bid, just wouldn’t have been my first choice. Brown has had a tremendous spring, and there aren’t any more talented outfielders that went for less than $6. Jay isn’t exciting to most, but he is a .300 career hitter who had a .373 OBP with 19 steals last season in 117 games played. Maybin will struggle in OBP, but his wrist seems healthy. There’s a 15/40 season lurking here. Hamilton was a total shot in the dark reserve add. Normally I wouldn’t have done that, but since I have two injured guys I can place on the DL, I figured I could add Hamilton at little risk.

Yes, that was me at 2 AM at Foley’s shooting a double shot of Jameson. Take that Kay Adams. That’s right, the Oracle doesn’t just drink fruity drinks (check out the shocked look on Kay’s face in this photo… that’s the Oracle on the left and Kyle Elfrink on the right). Well, I do most of the time…

I love Cliff Lee. He’s a top-5 option in my mind. He gave me six wins last year in Tout, but I’m doubling down on him this season. I might have paid a dollar or two more when compared to other similar arms, but I feel like I made that back when I got Greinke for just $14. Morrow for a dollar less has a lot of up as well. That’s a pretty strong trio in my mind. Add in veterans like Hudson and Dempster and that’s a solid core. I also felt really good about Volquez in the reserves. He had an ERA under three with a WHIP in the 1.20′s and darn near a K per inning in his home starts last season.

As usual, I like my pen. I snagged Adams with an early bid, and he’s a dominant arm when healthy. Romo might have gone for a dollar or two more than he should have, but I’ve long said he’s a top-10 reliever in baseball if he can stay healthy. Some are worried about the varied performance of Hanrahan in Spring. I’m not. Jose Veras is no great shakes but he’s been over 10 Ks per nine the past three years and he appears to be the Astros main option in the 9th.

Some final thoughts.

My team has a ton of speed but might be a bit thin on power. I’ll address that at some point on the trade market once I get clear on the steals.

My staff needs another arm. I’ll almost certainly add one in the first waiver period with one of my two DL spot openings (I will use the other spot to get a shortstop to help cover until Jeter returns).

I usually limp slowly into drafts, but I went a bit bigger than normal thanks to the Harper add. That was unfortunate too. This draft would have played perfectly into my hands if I done my normal start slow, wade into the water slowly thing. As it was, I spent big early on some folks and that meant in the middle rounds, when a lot of “my guys” were going for less than market value, I just didn’t have the cash to spend (this was particularly evident on the hill – Lincecum for $10, Gallardo $15, Zimmerman $13, Wilson $8). I really hope I don’t regret not having the cash to spend on Lincecum. Hell, if I had gotten that foursome for $46 I would have felt flipping fantastic.

Best Picks: Bonifacio/Maybin for $6 each, Greinke for $14.
Worst Pick: Harper for $33 (only because it wasn’t my plan, not cause I hate the player).

Click on the link to see the 2013 Mixed Tout results.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Albert Pujols

Albert Pujols will be in the Hall of Fame one day. He is one of the most consistently excellent hitters that that the game has ever seen (only Alex Rodriguez, with 13, has more consecutive seasons with 30 homers and 99 RBIs than Pujols who is at 12 and counting heading into the 2013 season). Pujols is third all-time in MVP Shares (6.90) behind only Barry Bonds (9.30) and Stan Musial (6.96) thanks to three MVP awards and 11-straight years in the top-10 in voting (he fell to 17th last season). Pujols is also 2nd in WAR – everyone’s favorite new measure even though less than one percent of people know how to figure it out – among active players according to BaseballReference.com. Pujols is also going in the top-10 in virtually every fantasy baseball draft this season. I’m going to burst that bubble and let you know that Pujols’ just isn’t the lock he once was, despite the prevailing wisdom, to return his draft day cost. I know Mike Trout is amazing, and the addition of Josh Hamilton to support Pujols is huge, but folks, there is skills slippage with Mr. Pujols.

Let’s start the bashing right off the top, shall we?

Pujols has seen his batting average go down, down, down. Here are his batting average marks the past five years: .357, .327, .312, .299 and .285. That’s four straight years of a declining batting average. Moreover, his .292 batting average the past two years is 28th in baseball and .033 points below his career mark.

Pujols has seen his OBP go down, down, down. Here are his OBP marks the past five years: .462, .443, .414, .366 and .343. That’s four straight years of a declining OBP. Moreover, his .354 OBP the past two years is 38th in baseball and .060 points below his career average.

Pujols has seen his SLG go down, down, down. Here are his SLG marks the past four years: .658, .596, .541 and .516. That’s three straight years of a declining SLG. Moreover, his .528 SLG the past two years is 11th in baseball and .080 points below his career average.

Are you nervous yet? All three of those categories are well above big league average and still very solid marks, but the consistent decline the past few seasons should, at the very least, give you some pause that Pujols is a lock as a top-10 fantasy selection in 2013 (truth be told, I don’t have Pujols as my first or second ranked first sacker this year in my rankings. You can find a link to those rankings at the bottom of this piece in the Draft Guide link).

Some further disturbing trends.

Pujols has averaged 34 homers the past two seasons after averaging 41 homers his first 10 seasons. He’s also dipped from an average of 123 RBIs and 119 runs over the first decade of his career to an average of 102 RBIs and 95 runs the past two seasons.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

Pujols, from 2001-10, posted a walk rate in the double-digits every season. The last two years that mark has been 9.4 and 7.8 percent. To put that last number in perspective, in 2008-09 his walk rate was 16.3 percent more than doubling his mark from 2012.

From 2003-09 Pujols had a K-rate in the single digits. In two of the past three years that mark has been 10.9 and 11.3 percent. The 11.3 percent K-rate from last season is his worst mark since his rookie season back in 2001.

In each of the past three years Pujols has failed to reach his career average with his HR/F ratio. He’s also had three of the four lowest marks of his career the past three years. A career 19.2 percent HR/F ratio has fallen to 18.3, 18.3 an a career worst 14.0 percent the past three seasons.

Pujols hasn’t reached his career 19.0 percent line drive rate since 2008. That’s 4-straight years of less than his career average with his line drive rate (you have to be noticing the trend by now).

His rate of swinging at pitches out of the strike zone continues to increase. A career 22.9 percent mark in this category has swelled to 27.5, 31.8 and 36.4 percent the past three years. That’s a pretty scary increase. As a result, pitchers are throwing him less strikes than ever before. Not only did he see a career low 43.1 percent of pitches in the strike zone last season, he’s failed to see his career average of 47.8 percent each of the past five years.

If you believe his birth certificate, Pujols is 33 years old, an age where some regression is to be expected. Therefore, I’m not the least alarmed at the picture I’ve painted above. What we are seeing here is normal. The problem becomes not his declining production but the expectation that Pujols is somehow going to recapture his past glory. ‘But Ray, with that great lineup around him in Anaheim, surely you think Pujols has another great season in him.’ I would say he has another season in him of excellent production. Is that production first round type of stuff in the fantasy game given the clear downturn in so many of his measures? I’d say the answer to that question is – maybe. Pujols is a lock to be productive if healthy, and I’m not saying he’s going to be Chris Davis in 2013, but I’m merely pointing out that your expectations have a better chance of being reached if you look at the Pujols of the past two seasons and remove thoughts of the .330-40-120-115 guy we are used to seeing at the dish – especially since his knee is still giving him all kinds of trouble.

* Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Edwin Encarnacion

Jason Collette of Rotowire.com and Cory Schwartz of MLB.com and I all have an unhealthy love for Edwin Encarnacion (fittingly, Cory outbid me for Encarnacion last year in Tout Wars – I was the runner up bidder. Cory, by the way, was sitting immediately to my left at the draft while Jason was sitting immediately to my right recording the results, real time, for the internet audience). For years the three of us pushed people to draft EE, and for years we looked only mildly intelligent. However, with one fell swoop EE made us all look like geniuses with not only his best season but one of the better all-around seasons by a third baseman in the 21st century. What can Edwin do for an encore, and will Jason, Cory and myself be pushing him as hard in 2013 as we have the past few years?

Looking just at the results, EE had a HOF type season for a third sacker as he hit .280 with 42 homers, 110 RBIs, 93 runs scored and 13 steals. In the history of baseball there have been six seasons of .280-40-110-90-10 at the third base position (Alex Rodriguez did it twice, then single season efforts from Ken Caminiti, Dick Allen, Mike Schmidt, Chipper Jones and EE). Honestly there have only been five such seasons by full time third sackers as EE appeared in only one game at third base in 2012 (he was eligible at the position in fantasy after appearing in 36 games at the hot corner in 2012). So while putting him in that group is sort of cheating, it doesn’t take away from a spectacular season for the fantasy game in 2012. Let’s look at his skill set and see where we should set expectations for a guy who, in his 8th season, exploded onto the scene.

EE is never going to be a batting average booster. His .280 batting average in 2012 was the second best mark of his career, he hit .289 in 2007, and only once from 2008-11 did he hit even .270. Why? Pretty simple really. He’s just not a great hitter – the 2006 season was the last time he posted a line drive rate of 20 percent, and his career BABIP is .280. Neither of those two numbers is anything close to being something to be proud of. On the plus side EE usually doesn’t give away too many at-bats, he’s only struck out 100 times once and his K-rate has been under 16.5 percent the past three years (a solid number in today’s game). Last season was the first time that he really took to the walk as his 13 percent walk rate was well above his nine percent mark entering the year. If he continues along those lines his outlook would remain strong (his 0.89 BB/K ratio from 2012 dwarfs his previous career best of 0.60).

Moving on from the average, what about the power output? Always a fly ball hitter, one of the other reasons his average has never risen to the level of excitement, EE owns a 45 percent career fly ball rate (about 10 percent above league average). In ’12 Edwin had a 49.5 percent fly ball rate, the third highest mark of his career, and that certainly played a part in his homer explosion. There are two other major factors. The most obvious being an 18.7 HR/F ratio, fifty percent better than his 12 percent career mark entering last season. So Encarnacion hit more fly balls than normal and those fly balls reached the seats more often than at any previous time in his career. Add in the fact that he appeared in 151 games, a career best and his first season over 140 games since 2008, and you have another pertinent reason for his growth – he was on the field more than ever before (his total of 644 plate appearances was 62 more than ever before). That certainly helps one to produce in the counting categories.

Let’s keep things simple here. For seven seasons EE teased. In year eight he became a superstar. What that means is that for 87.5 percent of his big league career he has been solid, and 12.5 percent of the time he has been elite. Teammate Jose Bautista followed a similar path and backed up his breakout season with another impressive campaign (he was on his way to a second strong follow up before injuries limited him to just 92 games in 2012). Will Edwin be able to follow that same path? Remember the following before you go all in with EE in ’13.

He had never hit 27 homers before going for 42 last year.
He had never driven in 80 runs before going for 110 last year.
He had never scored 80 runs before going for 93 last year.
He had never stolen more than eight bases before going for 13 last year. He stole a grand total of 12 bases in the previous four seasons (2008-11).

Heading into the 2013 fantasy campaign Edwin Encarnacion’s value is limited off the hop – the only position he will qualify for is first base. That really hurts his value. Add in the fact that he took such a substantial step forward in year eight that it must at least be considered that 2012 will go down as a career best effort. The pendulum hasn’t swung completely, I’m not going to suggest avoiding Edwin after pleading for people to draft him for five years, but I will exercise a word of caution with Edwin. I find it hard to believe he will be able to replicate his 2012 numbers. If you draft him hoping for 80 percent of last year’s production I’d be OK with that, but you will almost certainly have to draft him earlier than that projection would lead you to considering the hype he will likely draw at the draft table.

By Ray Flowers

2012 Positional Review – Third Base

Now that the 2012 season is over, it’s time to review how my predictions went for each position in fantasy baseball. To that end, I will review my top-10 at each position and give a brief rundown on how each of the ten performed. I’ll also list which player was a “Hit” (someone who lived up to expectations) as well as a “Miss” (the player who simply failed to impress).

Note: All of these rankings are taken from the 2012 BASEBALLGUYS DRAFT GUIDE

For more on the Draft Guide you can click on the link.

For an update on what you missed in the Draft Guide, click on the link.

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

SECOND BASE

2012 THIRD BASE Top-10

1 Evan Longoria
2 Jose Bautista
3 Ryan Zimmerman
4 Kevin Youkilis
5 Aramis Ramirez
6 David Wright
7 Adrian Beltre
8 Pablo Sandoval
9 Alex Rodriguez
10 Michael Young

Longoria performed as expected when on the field hitting .289 with 17 homers and 55 RBIs in just 74 games. Of course, it was just 74 games as a leg issue limited him for a huge portion of the year. One of those first round selections that didn’t live up to his draft day cost.

Bautista, just like Longoria, was exactly what was expected when on the field as he blasted 27 homers with 65 RBIs and 64 runs scored in a mere 92 games. Of course, his average fell back to the doldrums (.241) as I always thought it would. For 2013 he will only qualify in the outfield.

Zimmerman hit. 224 in April and had just two homers on June 1st. Awful right? Despite that start, in the end it was a “normal” Ryan Zimmerman season, i.e., a damn good one. When it was all said and done he hit .282 with 25 homers, 95 RBIs and 93 runs scored. Damn impressive considering the start he had.

Youkilis played for both Sox this year, and he actually wasn’t all that bad in Chicago as he hit 15 long balls with 46 RBIs and 47 runs scored in just 80 games played. That’s 30-90-90 in a full season folks. Too bad he hit .233 with the Red Sox and .236 with the Whites.

Ramirez is always taken later on draft day than he should be. He went out in his first year in Milwaukee and hit .300 with 27 homers, 105 RBIs and 92 runs scored (not to mention a career best 50 doubles). Hell, he even stole nine bases. Once again he was a rock of offensive production from the hot corner.

Wright hit only .258 with a .750 OPS in the second half. That’s terrible. Still, how can you turn away from a guy who hit .306 with 21 homers, 93 RBIs, 91 runs and 15 steals? Rumors of him being washed up simply weren’t remotely accurate.

Beltre had the second best season of his career hitting .321 with 36 bombds, 102 ribbies and 95 runs scored. His owners won’t forget his mad dash to the finish either as he hit .345 with 11 homers over his last 29 games.

Sandoval struggled with yet another hammate bone issue that required surgery, and he continued to gain weight at an alarming rate. He hit .283 with 63 RBIs in just 396 at-bats, but there are a ton of reasons why Sandoval shouldn’t be drafted too highly next season. Get it, a “ton” of reasons?

Rodriguez had hit 30 homers with 100 RBIs each year from from 1998-2010, a major league record 13-straight seasons. Last year he slumped to 16-62 in 99 games, and this year he fell even further with 18 homers and 57 RBIs in 122 contests. At least he stole 13 bases to give him a tiny bit of value. OK, I’m stretching.

Young had a solid end to the year hitting .313 over his final 31 games, but that still left his season long average at .277, his first sdeason under .280 since 2002. He also failed to reach double-digit homers for the first time in five years, and his 67 runs batted in were also his lowest mark since 2002. For a player who is 36 years old it’s fair to wonder just how much Young will be able to “bounce back” in 2013.

Hit: Aramis Ramirez (#5), Brett Lawrie (#12)
I list Lawrie because I believe I had him lower than any other source I saw this season (I know of a couple of websites that listed him as a top-30 overall player this season). Lawrie had a solid effort hitting .273 with 11 homers, 48 RBIs, 73 RBIs and 13 steals, but based upon most people’s expectations that effort was viewed as a monumental failire. It should not have been.

Miss: Kevin Youkilis
Michael Young wasn’t too far behind either.

By Ray Flowers

Milestones

The following bits of info were posted on the BaseballGuys Twitter account. See what you’re missing if you aren’t following along…

@MLB_PR: All-time doubles leader Tris Speaker had 445 through his age-32 season. Albert Pujols has 505.

@ESPNStatsInfo: Albert Pujols has 50 doubles this yr. He is the first player in MLB history to have 3 seasons of 30+ HR and 50+ doubles.

@MLB_PR: Robinson Cano and Rogers Hornsby are the only 2B ever to have consecutive seasons with 80+ extra base hits.

@GregJohnsMLB: Felix was Cy Young contender heading into Sept., but in last 6 starts went 0-4 with 6.62 ERA and 53 hits in 35.1 IP.

@richardjustice: A’s rookies have 53 victories. According to Elias, this is the most victories for rookies on one team in MLB history.

@richardjustice: Tommy Milone and Jarrod Parker, A’s are 1st team to have 2 rookies win 13 games since the ’52 Dodgers (Black, Loes).

Some of my own thoughts…

Albert Pujols is simply amazing. It hasn’t been the season he has hoped for, and it will go down as his worst season ever, but he’s still hitting .289 with 30 homers, 105 RBIs and 85 runs scored. This means he is polishing off his 12th straight season of 30 homers and 99 RBIs. That ties him with Jimmie Foxx for the second longest such streak in baseball history behind the 13-year run of Alex Rodriguez. Oh, and the other two times that Pujols had 50 doubles, he hit 51 each year, he blasted 43 and 46 homers (2003-04).

Robinson Cano is on his way to Cooperstown. Hitting .308 with 31 homers, 88 RBIs and 102 runs scored, he’s a four category fantasy superstar. Moreover, each of the past four years he hit at least 25 homers with 85 RBIs and 100 runs scored. That four year run is the longest by any second sacker in baseball history (Ryne Sandberg did it three years in a row from 1990-92). Cano is also a double machine. With a career-high tying 48 doubles this year, Cano has reached 40 doubles six times in his last seven seasons missing only in 2008 when he hit 35 (his career-low for a season is 34 doubles). Only one other second sacker hit 40 doubles in 4-straight years – Jeff Kent in 1999-2002.

September cost Felix Hernandez. His terrible final month pushed his ERA to 3.09 on the year, For some reason as well, the guy just can’t get the Angels out. Take a look at his career numbers against the club from Southern California: 6-12, 4.07 ERA in 30 starts. “I don’t know what kind of approach they take,” he said. “Don’t ask me. Ask them. They hit me pretty good.”

As noted, Tommy Milone and Jarrod Parker both have had a lot of success this season. In fact, their numbers are virtually identical if you look at their fantasy production.

Milone: 13-10, 3.74 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 137 Ks in 190 IP
Parker: 13-8, 3.47 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 140 Ks in 181.1 IP

Milone was tremendous when pitching at home as he went 7-5 with a 2.74 ERA and 1.05 WHIP over 15 starts. Parker tied for the team in in wins and led the club in ERA and Ks and WHIP (Bartolo Colon was better at 1.21 but he only threw 152.1 innings on the year falling short of the 162 needed to qualify for the ERA title).

A few more notes for fun.

Manny Banuelos, one of the elite prospects on the hill, will likely miss all of the 2013 season as the Yankees announced he will need to undergo Tommy John surgery. Just goes to show you why it is so dangerous count on young arms when building a dynasty club. You have to build around those young arms of course, but give me an Arroyo or Harang type any day over a prospect that could be something at some point.

Lance Berkman is unlikely to play again because of his knee issue. His career could be over.

Since Gio Gonzalez will skip his last start, Tom Gorzelanny will take his spot Tuesday against the Phillies, Gonzalez will become the first pitcher in baseball history to win 21 games in a season while throwing less than 200-innings (199.1 is his total this season).

C.J. Wilson admitted that he will have offseason elbow surgery to remove bone spurs that have been bothering him for a couple of months. Now we finally find an explanation that fits to explain the pathetic work that Wilson has offered his owners the past couple of months. After a 2.43 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over his first 18 starts he barely made it to the finish line with a 5.54 ERA and 1.57 WHIP over his last 16 outings. Use that slow finish to your benefit next year on draft day.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

Who should you be playing Friday and Saturday? In addition to that info, I’ll hit on a few of the relevant stories in the game as well.

The Dodgers, to the frustration of everyone, will use Ronald Belisario and Brandon League in the 9th inning with Kenley Jansen (heart) on the sidelines. Way to clarify that situation for us Mr. Mattingly. I’d favor Belisario, 60/40, for 9th inning work. Also, Chad Billingsley will have platlet-rich plasma injections in his elbow in the hopes that it will help him return before the end of the season. It may, or may not, get him back out on the field this season.

The Giants plan on getting Joaquin Arias more time on the field. Good idea Giants. Arias is hitting .429 with 15 RBIs in just 56 at-bats in the month of August (that average leads baseball by the way). He’s not a great hitter, not even close, but he’s rolling right now making him a wonderful NL-only option at the moment.

Carlos Pena has been told his playing time will be cut. Shocker. When you’re hitting .188 with just 16 homers you should have your playing time reduced. Looks like Jeff Keppinger will get more time at first base against left-handed pitchers. Seems like a good thing since, oh, Keppinger thinks he’s Ted Williams against lefties this year as he’s hitting .411 with a 1.005 OPS through 90 at-bats.

Alex Rodriguez (hand) could return from the DL as early as Monday. Hand/wrist injuries traditionally sap the power of batters a wee bit, so it would be wise not to expect him to have some massive month of September, but at least he might have a month to help out fantasy squads.

Josh Vitters has failed, miserably, to do anything for the Cubs. He’s been awful at the plate going 5-for-54. That’s less than a .100 batting average folks (.093). The team doesn’t want the youngster to think he’s the worst player of all-time, so they are going to manage his workload moving forward. That’s code for they are going to bench him an awful lot. Hard to believe, but Luis Valbuena appears likely to get an awful lot of work at the hot corner (that’s not code – you want to add Valbuena in NL-only leagues if he is available, even if he can’t really hit either: .227/.319/.384 in 920 career at-bats. Maybe that’s why no one has bothered to add him to their team at Fleaflicker). Speaking of youngsters, Brett Jackson’s numbers are still poor – .216 average and 37 Ks in 74 at-bats (to state it differently, he’s striking out in literally half his at-bats) – but unlikely Vitters there seems to be some short-term hope. Jackson has been a highly effective offensive performer over his last seven games with three homers, six RBIs and six runs scored. At least one of the Cubs’ youngsters is showing something.

HITTERS FOR FRIDAY

Stephen Drew vs. Aaron Cook: .342 in 38 at-bats
Jonny Gomes vs. Aaron Cook: .500-3-6 in 14 at-bats
Torii Hunter vs. Kevin Millwood: .405-2-13 in 42 at-bats
Dan Uggla vs. Roy Halladay: .355-3-7 in 31 at-bats
Chris Young vs. Aaron Harang: .316-3-5 in 19 at-bats

HITTERS FOR SATURDAY

Aaron Hill vs. Josh BeckettL .412-1-8 in 34 at-bats
Ryan Howard vs. Tim Hudson: .344-7-17 in 61 at-bats
Adam Lind vs. Jeff Niemann: .448-3-9 in 29 at-bats
Joe Mauer vs. Luke Hochevar: .500-1-3 in 26 at-bats
A.J. Pierzynski vs. Max Scherzer: .385-1-5 in 26 at-bats

PITCHERS FOR FRIDAY

Dan Haren vs. Mariners: 11-6, 2.69 ERA in his career.
Hiroki Kuroda: 8-straight starts 3 or fewer ERs (11 ERs total).
Adam Wainwright vs. Nats: 6-0 with a 1.80 ERA last seven starts this year.

PITCHERS FOR SATURDAY

Homer Bailey vs. Astros: 4-0, 1.33 ERA vs. ‘Stros. Club hitting .225 since All-Star Break.
Kyle Lohse vs. Nats: 5-0, 2.34 ERA, 1.08 WHIP over last nine starts
Max Scherzer vs. W.Sox: 2.85 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 81 Ks in 75.2 IP vs. W.Sox.

DAILY JOUST CONTESTS

I’ve spent this article talking about baseball, which obviously isn’t at all odd given that this is BaseballGuys.com, but I’ve got a way that you can, in addition to playing fantasy baseball, also play some fantasy football. How can you do that? You can head over to DailyJoust and sign up for any of the myriad of games they have to offer. For those of you who are hardcore baseball fans like me they are still running daily fantasy games for you, well, daily. For those of you who are read to take on the gridiron, there are three pretty exciting games they have to offer. You can find a report on each at the following links (scroll down to the bottom of the articles for the explanations).

NFL FREE ROLLS
(Sign up for free, win cash)

CRUSADER LEAGUES
(New team each week all season)

GLADIATOR LEAGUES
(Eliminator Tournament)

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By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: August23, 2012

Each week I’ll be answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account in my never ending attempt to replace myself by explaining to everyone how I evaluate players thereby making myself obsolete.

Who wins: C.J. Wilson $11, Colby Rasmus $8, Matt Holliday $30, Arod $33, Kyle Seager $6 for Mike Trout $15?
– @BradfordEra

I know what I would do here, but apparently my position on the matter is the exact opposite of what everyone else on Twitter seems to think.

Trout has been phenomenal. He’s currently hitting .343 with 24 homers, 70 RBIs, 97 runs scored and 39 steals in a mere 101 games. Still, as I’ve written time after time, Trout can’t possibly perform at this level year after year. I know, I know, no one agrees with me, in fact people vehemently disagree with me and think he is going to hit .333 with 30 homers and 50 steals every year, but I’m not changing my point of view on the matter. Let’s talk again a year from now. Regardless, Trout will go for three times that $15 cost in many, if not all leagues next year, so he is an amazing value for 2013 at just $15.

Still, I’d take the other side.

Wilson has slumped of late, but he is well on his way to a third straight solid season and the $11 cost for him is reasonable. He’ll go for more than $11 in many mixed leagues next year.

Rasmus has certain holes in his game, and he’s about as inconsistent as they come, but he’s still already posted 20 homers and 66 RBIs this season, and for $8 he’s a solid value who will likely go for twice as much on draft day 2013.

Holliday at $30 is a wee bit steep for some (not this scribe), that is until you look at his production. On pace for another .300-30-100-100 effort, Holliday is about as stable a top level option as there is in the game. He’s a rock. Building around him at $30, there is nothing wrong with that at all.

Arod at $33 – no way you keep him for that. I wouldn’t even keep him for $23. At this point, I may not even keep him at half the cost of his keeper value. Drop Arod after the deal is completed.

Seager for $6 is a nice deal too. He’s only appeared in 14 games at second this year, but that might give him second base eligibility in some leagues. Regardless, he has 13 homers and 68 RBIs in his first full season in the big leagues. He’s a sneaky play that could return twice his draft day cost in value.

I’d do this deal provided that you don’t have to keep Rodriguez (he’d be an anchor at $33), but I could certainly see why someone would want to hold on to Trout since he is a special value.  As great a player as Trout is, the totality of the players you would be keeping, an at a solid cost, would give you a solid foundation to build around. Plus, the money that you would be saving on your keepers, since all but Arod come at a fair price, will afford you the ability to overspend a bit on draft day for a player or two.

Kris Medlen or Matt Harvey?
– @DaReelGiamcarlo

Both these guys are rolling right now.

Medlen has won each of his last three starts, and the last two times he has taken the hill he hasn’t allowed a single run. Going back a bit further, Medlen has allowed a total of three runs in his five starts for the Braves. Three. In those five outings Medlen has a 0.83 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, eight strikeouts per nine innings an a 5.80 K/BB ratio. That’s about as good as you can pitch. Add in an impressive 1.94 GB/FB ratio on the season and you’ve got a fella who is (a) performing at optimal levels and (b) a rate that he can’t possibly sustain.

Harvey has the bigger arm, and he likely has the brighter future. In six starts this season Harvey has 43 punchouts in 36 innings, and that has led to an impressive 10.75 K/9 mark. He’s been walking a few too many batters, but with all those punchouts his 2.87 K/BB ratio is still solid. Harvey has also allowed just two runs while walking three batters and striking out 17 over his last two outings. There’s nothing wrong with Harvey’s performance to this point for the Mets, but there is this – he’s on an innings pitched count. The Mets have professed that they want to keep Harvey in the 165-70 range with innings this season. That makes sense given that he threw 135.1 innings last season, not to mention that the Mets have nothing to play for so there is no need to risk the future. By the way, Harvey has thrown 146 innings thus far.

I’d go with Medlen who is pitching better and doesn’t have an innings pitched count to worry about.

Jonathan Lucroy, Geo Soto, Alex Avila, Josh Donaldson @ catcher next 2 weeks?
– @kevin5464

As we get toward the end of the season, I’ve gotten a few questions like this one with people wanting me to give advice on short-term situations. Here’s the truth everyone – I have no idea. No one does. Simply put, the sample size is just too small. Take this example.

The last two weeks Todd Frazier is hitting .469 with five homers, 13 RBIs, 13 runs and two steals. If you were only looking at two weeks with numbers like that you would have to say he was a better option the next two weeks than Adrian Gonzalez who has really struggled a bit the past two weeks (.217-4-13-5). How many people would prefer Frazier over A-Gone, even in the short-term? Probably not many.

Or how about this. Which player would you rather have based on their August numbers?

.253-2-10 with a .719 OPS
.389-2-10 with a 1.012 OPS

You just chose to keep John Jay (player #2) over Andrew McCutchen.

Two weeks is just too small a time frame to accurately predict how a batter will perform. If you’re gonna try look at things like where will the games be played, how many games will the batter have,  who are the hurlers on the hill that he will be facing, wow has the player performed the past few weeks and what is the players skill set?

Quickly, my thoughts on each guy.

Lucroy is hitting .325 with eight homers and 41 RBIs – in 200 at-bats. That is about as impressive a pace as any catcher could ever hope for (think of it, only 400 at-bats would lead to a .325-16-82 line at that pace). He hasn’t quite been that gutter since he returned from injury, he’s hit. 279 with three homers and 11 RBIs in 21 games, but that’s still solid production for a hitter who is clearly performing over his head.

Soto has six hits in his last four games. He’s also picked up an RBI in 4-straight games. Still, he’s hitting just .208 with a .643 OPS this season, and he hasn’t been much better with the Rangers since he was dealt to the American League (.236 with a .682 OPS over 16 games).

Avila hit .295 with 19 homers and 82 RBIs last year, a simply tremendous effort for a backstop. This year, not so much. Avila is hitting just .250 with seven homers and 35 RBIs. He’s obviously not reaching any of last year’s benchmarks. Avila is hitting .294 with a .390 OBP in August, but he still has only one homer and 15 RBIs since the start of June (47 games).

Donaldson has been killing it with 12 hits in his last six outings as his average has shot up from .167 to .226. He is the definition of a hot player that is an intriguing add if you are looking for a quick boost. Could his addition lead to greatness for the next few weeks? Possibly. But as often happens, by the time you realize a guy is hot, like Donaldson, you’ve missed the best he has to offer. There’s no way he gets 12 hits in his next six outings. Not just that, his overall performance this season has been poor, and that three walk, 31 K effort really makes me nervous.

The best catcher this season has been Lucroy. He’d be my choice to roll with out of this quartet.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 7-10 PM EDT, Monday through Friday.

Around the Horn: July25, 2012

(1) Hanley Ramirez dealt to Dodgers. Will he live up to expectations?

(2) Ryan Dempster not on way to Braves? Maybe Dodgers? Maybe staying in Chicago?

(3) Zack Greinke on Braves radar?

(4) A-Rod fractures hand, out 6-8 weeks. Chase Headley target?

(5) Cole Hamels signs 6-year, $144 deal with Phillies.

(6) Ryan Roberts to Rays.

(7) Wandy Rodriguez dealt to Pirates (will his ownership rate go up in his new home? See Feaflicker).

(8)  Since All-Star break – Yoenis Cespedes/Carlos Santana on fire.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust – Wk 14: Did We Learn Anything?

On Monday each week I take a look at the fantasy baseball game breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances of late – not just positive outings mind you, but I’ll also delve into some of the players that have been sucking wind of late. Can you use this information to your benefit over at DailyJoust? To get your daily fantasy baseball fix make sure you head over to DailyJoust.com to set your salary cap club.

GAINERS OF THE WEEK

Cole DeVries (+78, $246K in DailyJoust Salary)
Though six appearances, and five starts, Cole has compiled a 3.00 ERA and 1.10 WHIP for the Twins. He’s also allowed just three runs in his last three appearances while striking out 12 and walking just two. Like seemingly ever Twins hurler, he just doesn’t beat himself with the free passes (eight in 30 innings).

Marco Estrada (+68, $291K)
In six games as a starter for the Brewers he has a 4.50 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. Not exactly numbers that appear to go together. So which arm has he been? Try the 1.02 WHIP guy. In those 42 innings as a starter this year eh has an impressive 45 Ks and thanks to just six walks his K/BB ratio is a HOF worthy 7.50. Well worth a look if available (even if no one has noticed. See Fleaflicker).

Zach McAllister (+70, $135K)
Through seven starts he’s 3-1 with a 3.40 ERA and 1.28 WHIP for the Indians. Though he’s allowed only three earned runs his last two starts he’s remarkably also permitted six other unearned runs or that ERA would look pretty bad. He does have 41 Ks an a 4.10 K/BB ratio in 42.1 innings though so it’s not like he’s bereft of skill.

Alex Rodriguez (+30, $105K)
He has seven hits in his last five games, but he’s still batting just .269 with a .793 OPS. Unfortunately the average is about what was expected – he hit .270 and .276 the past two years – and his OPS was under .850 each of the past two years as well. He’s also on pace for about 25 homers and 75 RBIs. Put that all together and we’d be talking about the worst full season of his career – by a substantial amount.

Will Venable (+28, $83K)
He’s always lurking on the edge of relevance in a 12 team league that starts five outfielders. He’s got a little bit of pop (six homers) and some speed (eight steals though he’s been caught six times). Still, he’s a .249 career hitter with a .320 OBP, and guess what, he’s hitting .248 with a .318 OBP this year. Only an injury fill in for mixed leaguers.

LOSERS OF THE WEEK

Alejandro De Aza (-16, $89K)
Hitting .283 with a pace for 25+ steals and 100 runs (including 11 in his last 10 games), there is nothing to complain about with De Aza. Sure he only has two homers in 61 games, and he’s swiped just four bases in his last 32 games, but that’s just nitpicking.

Eric Hosmer (-13, $77K)
Hosmer lifted his average up to .237 on July 2nd, the highest it had been since April 9th. Yeah, it’s been a rough year. Hosmer has scored seven times in his last eight games, and I’m still thinking a rebound is coming. His line drive rate, HR/F are the same as last year. He’s also walking more and striking out less. Sooner or later that will result in increased offensive production. Trust me.

Jed Lowrie (-13, $55K)
Once more into the breach…

Haven’t we been here before? You know, the point were I tell you that Jed Lowrie isn’t as good as everyone thinks he is? The point where I mention that he’s never going to help you out in the batting average category (.254 this year, .253 in career). Or how about his merely average ability to get on base (.343 OBP this year, .329 for his career). Or how about his streaky as all hell nature? Anyone notice that he’s hit .191 with one homer the past three weeks? Even worse, the guy has hit .211 over his last 34 games. You can’t say I didn’t warn you.

Anibal Sanchez (-68, $188K)
He’s had a rough go of it, but in his final start before the break he stopped the bleeding allowing two runs, without walking a batter, in six innings. He ends the first half with a 1.25 WHIP, 0.03 better than last season, and his 7.99 K/9 and 3.06 K/BB ratios point to a guy who has pitched pretty well this season. I know it’s hard to trust him given his recent downturn in production, but he’s a nice buy low option considering his perceived lack of value.

CONTEST: All-Star Game

Sign up to play in the All-Star Game contest at DailyJoust. Simply register at this LINK and the contest will show up in the lobby for you. Yet another reason you’ll want to watch the mid-season’s classic.

CONTEST – KING FOR A DAY; Win $12,000

Here’s the deal. Every Friday through September 7th, 12 qualifiers will be given a shot to win $12,000 in the final contest on September 14th. Here’s how it works from the official web page of the tournament.

Each weekly qualifier is a $10 entry multiple-entry tournament with the winner earning a seat in the Sept 14th $12,000 King’s Crown tournament. In the event of a tie for first place, normal Daily Joust tie-breaker rules apply. If a tie still persists, a playoff will occur to determine the winner.

That’s right. Be a weekly winner and you’ll get your shot to view for the $12,000 in prizes ($5,000 to the winner)… for the cost of $10.

Sound like a game you’d like to try your hand at?

By Ray Flowers

Fantasy Beat: It’s Trading Season

Justin Fensterman and Trevor Ray discuss trades they have recently made. They discuss reasons for trading at this junction of the season, reasons to for trade players or trade away players and much more. They discuss Johan Santana, Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols, Giancarlo Stanton, Yoenis Cespedes, Jonathan Broxton, Aaron Harang.

Listen to the Audio.