History Comes in Three's

Ichiro beats you to death with singles, Bautista with his blasts, and the San Francisco Giants pitcher’s are beating down every offense they face.

Ichiro Makes History

Ichiro Suzuki racked up his 200th hit today. There are a whole host of interesting tidbits around that effort, and here are a few.

* He has 200 hits in all 10 of his big league seasons
* He is the first player to ever have 10-straight 200 hits seasons.
* Only Ichiro and Pete Rose have had ten 200 hit seasons.
* Since the 2001 season began he has 2,229 hits. Obviously that’s an average of nearly 230 hits a year(with more than a week left in the season, he’ll clearly push that mark even higher).
* Since 2001, no other big leaguer has more than 1,906 hits – Derek Jeter.

Hats off to you Ichiro.

Jose Bautista Hits #50

Jose Bautista hit his 50th homer today, a fact that I spoke to as a forgone conclusion earlier this week in History is at Hand. Here are some tidbits surrounding the remarkable achievement from the man that hit a total of 43 homers the past three years.

* Bautista is the 26th player ever to hit 50 homers in a season.
* He has hit all 50 of his homer to left or left center.
* He has hit 31 homers at home.
* He has hit 26 homers since the All-Star break. Remember, he had never before hit even 17 in a season.

Let’s put those numbers in perspective.

Albert Pujols, Manny Ramirez, Frank Robinson, Mike Schmidt, Hank Aaron, Ryan Howard and Barry Bonds never hit 50 homers in a season (Bonds is cheating – how apropos – as he hit 73 one year though he never actually had a season of between 50-72 homers).

Bautista has 31 homers at home. Here is a list of players who haven’t hit 31 homers this season no matter the locale: Ryan Howard (30), Prince Fielder (30), Mark Teixeira (30), Adrian Gonzalez (29), Matt Holliday (27) and Troy Tulowitzki (26) to name a few.

Here is a list of players who haven’t hit 26 homers, Bautista’s total in the second half in a mere 63 games: David Wright (25), Ryan Zimmerman (25), Jayson Werth (25), Alex Rodriguez (25), Matt Kemp (23), Ryan Braun (23) and Andre Ethier (23).

Yeah, I just threw up a little bit in my mouth too.

One last thought. Ichiro had his 200th hit, and Bautista hit his 50th bomb — in the same game. Don’t you love the symmetry of that?

Giants’ Starters are Aces

The Giants are a half game out of first place behind the San Diego Padres, but the blame for rests solely on the offense and not the dominating pitchers that the team has been running out there.

* The Giants have allowed three of fewer runs in 16-straight games, and that ties single season league record, since 1920 when the “live ball” was introduced. The other two teams to go 16 consecutive games were the 1972 Indians and the 1981 Athletics (the 1942-43 Reds did have a stretch of 20-games).

* The club hasn’t allowed more than four runs in 21-straight, and that is tied for the fifth longest in the live ball era, and the longest streak since the ’81 A’s. The record is 25-straight games by the 1942-43 Cubs, with the single season mark being 23 games by the 1972 Cubs.

* Since August 28th the starting rotation has posted a 2.06 ERA and held batters to a .191 batting average against.

* Over their last 10 starts the rotation has a 1.32 ERA.

So how in the world are the Giants 5-5 in their last 10 games? The blame rests squarely on an offense that he been shut out four times in 10 games. The offense has also produced one or zero runs in eight of the last 13 games.

One last note about the Giants.
They are a major league best 74-22 when they score three or more runs.

By Ray Flowers

Three's Company

Three’s are nice. There is the Holy Trinity, the outs in a half inning, or the fact that three is a pleasing number for the eye to see in a painting. Building on that theme, I will break down three of the best hitters in baseball in what follows.

Troy Tulowitzki has been on fire, an if you weren’t aware of that you must be wearing your football jersey around each day paying no attention to the diamond. Tulo is hitting .351 over his lst 43 games, and over his last 48 games he has a 1.108 OPS. Those numbers are massive (duh). He also has 14 homers and 34 RBI, not to mention 24 runs scored in 18 September games. On the year he is up to .325-26-89-83-10, a fantastic top-20 effort that you can read about in this week’s MLB Player Rater piece. If he were to keep that level of production up over 550 at-bats – he had 543 last season but has just 422 this season – his effort would lead to a .325-34-116-108-13 season. Do you know how many shorstops seasons have ever been produced of .320-30-115-105-10? Try two. Once by Nomar Garciaparra (.323-35-122-111-12 in 1998) and once by Alex Rodriguez (.358-36-123-141-15 in 1996). Yes, Tulo has been balling.

Jack Bauer, I mean Joe Mauer (sorry my love of 24 shone through there), is currently on the shelf with a sore left knee. An MRI showed that there was only inflammation going on with his wheel, but he still might miss a few days. On the year he is hitting a superb .331. If he keeps his average up over .325 he will have his fourth season of .325+ (minimum 502 plate appearances), and that would tie Mickey Cochrane‘s all-time record for backstops. Mauer’s .408 career OBP is also second all-time (minimum 3,000 plate appearances), for a catcher behind Cochrane’s .419 mark. As for Mauer’s power, its been MIA just like I said it would about a million times this year (you can read about it in my MLB Predictions – Hitters piece). I said Mauer would never hit 30 homers, and in fact, “…it strains credulity to think that Mauer will once again be able to double his previously established level.” Mauer has nine homers, which if you remove his 28 homer outburst last season, would fit in quite nicely with his other seasons of six, nine, thirteen, seven and nine.

Joey Votto was scratched from the Reds lineup on Tuesday because of a sinus infection (he’s day-to-day like the rest of us). He is third in the NL in average (.323), third in homers (35), second in RBI (106), first in OBP (.423), second in SLG (.597) and first in OPS (1.020) in the NL.Toss in 100 runs and 15 steals, and Votto has been an absolute fantasy revalation. He has also been a beast in terms of his consistency with virutally identical production in each of the seasons two parts.

Pre All-Star break: .314/.422/.589
Post All-Star break: .336/.424/.608

He may or may not win the NL MVP award, but if he doesn’t finishin the top-3 you can conisder the election of the winner a total farce.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: August 19, 2010

(1) David Wright back in the lineup for Mets.

(2) Ian Kinsler to get MRI on Monday.

(3) Dustin Pedroia out with sore foot.

(4) Lance Berkman to DL. Alex Rodriguez should be back soon for Yankees.

(5) Brad Hawpe released.

(6) Pedro Feliz to Cardinals.

(7) Ryan Howard (ankle) hopes to return on Monday.

(8) Roger Clemens likely to be indicted for lying to Congress.

By Ray Flowers

Morrow Makes History – Sort Of

Brandon Morrow Strikes Out 17

Out of the cornfields he strode to the mound, his right arm smoldering after warming up in the bullpen. He took the mound, pulled his cap low across his eyes, reared back, and began to dismantle the opposition with some of the filthiest stuff the game is ever seen. He was untouchable, throwing strikes at will. For 8.2 innings not one batter could pick up a hit as Ray after Ray returned to the dugout with his head held low. Evan Longoria broke up the no-hitter with a grounder to the right side of the infield to break up the no-no in the ninth, a mere out from history. Undaunted, the flame throwing righty struck out Dan Johnson on his 137th pitch to end the one hitter. All told the California native struck out 17 batters, walked two batters, allowed just that single hit and obviously didn’t allow a run.

That pitcher is Brandon Morrow.

The strikeouts, one off the Blue Jays team record, were a surprise, but at the same time time Morrow does lead baseball with a 10.67 K/9 mark. He usually struggles with control, his BB/9 mark is 4.03, but clearly we saw yesterday what can happen when he locks in his pitches. Can he continue to throw strikes? That’s a good/open question. There is also the issue of how his arm will rebound from a career-high pitch total. Brandon has only two other games this season with as many as 110 pitches, so the hope is that this big pitch total from yesterday doesn’t weigh him down moving forward. I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Blue Jays have him skip a start, or at best to severely limit his pitch totals the next few times out.

Closer Changes?

It’s that time of year for bullpens. There are a handful of teams that just might be making changes to the backend of their bullpens.

Florida Marlins: Leo Nunez has a 2.91 ERA, 49 Ks and a 4.08 K/BB mark in 46.1 innings. Those numbers are all strong. However, he has blown each of his last two chances and is 26-for-33 in converting saves on the year. Moreover, he has allowed six runs in his last three innings and seven in 5.2 innings. The team hasn’t said they will make a move, but it might be closing in changing things up in the ninth inning. “For now, he’s our closer, but if he doesn’t make an adjustment, we may have to explore other options — maybe do a closer by committee,” Marlins’ manager Edwin Rodriguez said.

Milwaukee Brewers: Trevor Hoffman is three saves from 600, so the Brewers have an interest in helping him to make history before the year is over. He has pitched really well of late – 1.42 ERA over his last 19 appearances – so well in fact that he is now the co-closer with John Axford. “The thing with Hoffman is he’s earned his way back to saving games,” manager Ken Macha said. “That’s not to eliminate Axford from doing things, too, because he’s done nothing to write his name out.” Hoffman’s value goes up, Axford’s obviously goes down.

Washington Nationals: Drew Storen, the Nats closer of the future, isn’t quite ready to take over the closer reigns right now. “”For me, he is kind of a work in progress,” manager Jim Riggleman said. “He is showing flashes of a really fine guy at the back end of the bullpen — closer potentially.” Look for Storen, Sean Burnett and Tyler Clippard to share work in the 9th inning until one emerges.

Injury Notes

Andrew Bailey (rib/side) will likely miss at least another week more.

Daric Barton (shoulder) was forced from the game on Sunday. It is unclear if he will require a DL stint.

Gordon Beckham (groin) might end up missing a few days, though the injury isn’t thought to be serious.

A.J. Burnett (back) should be able to make his next start on Tuesday.

Eric Chavez (back/neck) is considering retirement.

Dustin Pedroia (foot) hopes he can return in about 10 days.

Alex Gordon (heel) says he is improving. Will continue to play through it.

Carlos Guillen (calf) has been activated from the DL.

Kyle Lohse (forearm) will make at least one more start in the minors.

Kris Medlen (elbow) will wait one more week before deciding if he needs Tommy John surgery.

Alex Rodriguez (shin) returned to action on Sunday for the Yankees.

Jason Varitek (foot) took BP on Sunday. There is still no timetable for his return.

Vernon Wells (toe) will undergo more tests on Monday after he injured his toe making a wonderful catch on Sunday trying to help Morrow to a no-hitter.

Jack Wilson (hand) had a fall at home and broke the fifth metacarpal bone in his right hand. He’ll be placed on the DL.

Notable Transactions

The Braves purchased the contract of Mike Minor.

The Giants will promote Emmanuel Burriss on Monday.

The Mariners will promote Chris Woodward on Monday.

The Orioles sent Troy Patton to the minors.

The Phillies sent John Mayberry to minors.

The Dodgers designated for assignment Garret Anderson and purchased the contract of Jay Gibbons.

The Tigers sent Will Rhymes to the minors when they activated Carlos Guillen.

The Nationals sent Collin Balester to the minors and recalled Jason Marquis.

Prospect Watch

The Athletics will call up Chris Carter, and Jeff Larish for that matter, on Monday. Carter has 27 bombs and 89 RBI at Triple-A this season, and those numbers go along nicely with his totals of the last two years: 38 HRs, 104 RBI and 28 HRs, 115 RBI last year. The kid can slug it, and with the injury to Daric Barton, Carter just might get the chance to play every day in Oakland.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: August 4, 2010

(1) John Buck to DL. J.P. Arencibia activated.

(2) Geovany Soto on fire of late.

(3) Alex Rodriguez hits 600th homer.

(4) Mike Sweeney was traded to Phillies.

(5) Kevin Youkilis may be done for year.

(6) Chris Coghlan might be done for the year.

(7) Carlos Pena and his foot issues.

(8) Carlos Zambrano back in starting rotation for Cubs. Should you care? Give Weekly MLB Mailbag a read.

By Ray Flowers

Who Am I?

From time to time I play this game to see just how keen your wits are when it comes to identifying players based solely on their numbers and accomplishments. Let’s see how long it takes you to guess who the player is this time.

* I’ve made five All-Star teams.

* I’ve never won the MVP award, but I’ve finished in the top-7 in voting on four different occasions.

* I get on base with the best of them. I own a career OBP of .404, the 49th best mark in league history, and I’ve been a top-10 finisher in the category on 10 occasions. To compare, Adam Dunn has never bettered a .400 mark (2002) despite owning a career mark of .382.

* I’m a fair power hitter as well having finished with a top-10 slugging percentage 10 times. My season best mark is .677 – a mark that led the AL in 2002. My career SLG is .556 which places me 23rd all-time. Only once has Jason Bay bettered that mark (.559 in 2005).

* Because of my ability to get on base and to drive the ball deep, I’ve always been a tremendous OPS option. Five times I’ve posted a mark above a grand, and I’m sporting a career mark of .960. Only once in his career has David Wright bettered that mark (.963 in 2007).

* I’ve gotten on base so many times that I’m one run from 1,500 in my career. I’ve also pounded the ball enough to record 1,584 RBI meaning I will soon become the 34th player in big league history with 1,500 runs and 1,500 RBI in a career.

* This last one may give me away. I’ve hit 570 home runs in my career, the 11th best mark in baseball history. I’m also fourth all-time in homers by a left-handed batter. Considering the questions surrounding Mark McGwire, Alex Rodriguez, Sammy Sosa and Barry Bonds, some might argue that I’m one of the top five or so home run hitters in big league history. I’ve also been very consistent with at least 30 homers in 9-straight season (1996-2004). After an injured induced dip to seven in 2004, I then went on to hit at least 34 in each of the next three seasons meaning that for 12-straight healthy seasons I never once failed to go deep 30 times.

Who am I?

I’m the Twins’ Jim Thome.

Does Thome deserve to be in the HOF given those qualifications? Here are some thoughts on the subject.

(1) As I mentioned above, no one has ever connected Thome’s name to performance enhancing drugs. He’s country hardball strong, and as such there has never been a reason to think he needed steroids to help him to power the ball into the bleachers. It would be pretty tough to keep him out of the Hall if he ends his career with nearly 600 homers.

(2) Thome is viewed by many as a DH, though that negates his work in the field entirely. In 2,333 career games Thome has appeared at first base 1,102 times, and 492 times at third base (yes he played third at the start of his career). All told, he’s been on the field using his glove more than 68 percent of the time. Clearly the designated hitter role has helped to prolong his career, but less than a third of the time he has only been a hitter and not a fielder (I gave my thoughts on whether or not the designated hitter should be considered for Cooperstown in Is There Room for a DH?).

(3) it’s not exactly scientific to merely compare numbers without context, but I’m gonna do it anyway. Let’s compare this slugging lefty to another who is already in the Hall of Fame in Reggie Jackson. Here is each players performance per 162 games.

J.Thome:.277-40-110-104-1 with a .960 OPS
Jackson: .262-32-98-89-13 with a .846 OPS

Pretty shocking how much better Thome’s numbers are isn’t it?

I mentioned McGwire earlier in this piece, so why don’t we compare him to Thome given that both hitters were very similar in their approach and talents.

J.Thome: .277-40-110-104-1 with a .960 OPS
McGwire: .263-50-122-101-1 with a .982 OPS

Pretty darn close eh? By the way, you can read more about my thoughts on McGwire in HOF: Mammoth McGwire Misunderstood?

So should Jim Thome get more respect than he usually does? Unequivocally the answer is yes. Should he be elected to the HOF? Based on the numbers he has produced I can’t see how one could make a valid argument that he doesn’t belong in the Hall.

Around the Horn: June 18, 2010

(1) Troy Tulowitzki to miss 6-8 with broken wrist. Carlos Gonzalez also out on Friday.

(2) Jake Peavy has fluid, will still pitch on Saturday.

(3) Rich Harden has shot to accelerate healing process.

(4) Derek Holland tweaks knee while doing rehab work for shoulder.

(5) Mark Reynolds out of lineup, injured and struggling (13 Ks in 15 ABs).

(6) Alex Rodriguez back at third, Jorge Posada should be able to catch in interleague play

(7) Returning on Friday from injury- Jason Bay, Orlando Hudson.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June 16, 2010

(1) Jake Peavy has an arm issue. Does that mean Daniel Hudson is close to be recalled?

(2) Tim Lincecum takes a liner off his shoulder – appears to be OK.

(3) Carlos Ruiz slumping, missing time with injury for the Phillies.

(4) Alex Rodriguez back from hip injury after missing about a week.

(5) Giants still hoping to get Pablo Sandoval to lose weight.

(6) Conor Jackson to play everyday in LF for the Athletics.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Diamond

I went to the dentist today. (1) Who would ever want to spend their day with their fingers in someone’s mouth? (2) I hate the dentist – though who doesn’t? (3) At least if they are gonna make me go and inflict copious amounts of pain on me they could have some eye candy for me to look at, right? Only seems fair to me.

With each passing outing I grow more and more fond of this Mike Leake kid. He skipped the minors completely after being the 8th overall selection in the 2009 Entry Draft, and that looked like a major faux pas when he walked 12 batters in his first two big league starts. Well, consider those worries completely alleviated. Leake has gone at least six innings in each of his 10 starts, and nine times the outings have been of the “quality” variety as he has lowered his ERA to 2.45 on the year. Oh yeah, and the walks, they are no longer a problem as he has walked all of 13 batters in his last eight appearances.

The Braves are 16-4 since May 10th as they have made up 7.5 games in the standings. You didn’t make the mistake of thinking they wouldn’t be in the mix this year, did you?

The Brewers went 9-0 against the Marlins in 1998. Since then they are 30-48 in the matchup.

Speaking of the Brewers, Corey Hart is blazing hot right now with 10 homers and 21 RBI over his last 16 games. Hart also has a fantastic .800 SLG in that time as he is averaging one blast every 6.50 at-bats, though there are also some rather odd numbers to be found such as his .299 OBP and the fact that he’s only scored two runs when he didn’t knock himself in with a dinger.

I know it sounds crazy, but Aaron Heilman is the best reliever the D’backs have going right now. It’s not inconceivable that he could get a few chances in the ninth inning thanks to his 3.38 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, numbers that blow doors on Chad Qualls (7.64 and 2.09) and Juan Gutierrez (10.00 and 1.72).

How disappointing was that Giants/Rockies game on Monday? Ubaldo Jimenez was once again spectacular with a complete game four hit shutout, but Tim Lincecum failed to step up as he allowed five walks and four runs (three earned) before being pulled after 121 pitches and just 5.2 innings. The Giants desperately need Lincecum to figure out what ails him – possibly issues range from blisters to a mechanical glitch – or they’ll have no chance to compete in the NL West. As for Jimenez, he tossed 130 pitches on Monday and is third in baseball in pitches thrown (1,218) behind Justin Verlander (1,243) and Roy Halladay (1,220). Verlander has three 120-pitch outings, Halladay two and Jimenez four by the way. All bear close watching as they are throwing an awful lot of pitches right now. One last note on Jimenez. If he were to allow 19 runs in his next start and not record a single out he was still have an ERA below 2.95. That’s truly amazing.

Alex Rodriguez hit his 20th grand slam on Monday to move into third place all-time in salami’s behind the Iron Horse, Lou Gehrig (23), and the Iron Head, Manny Ramirez (21). A-Rod hit .250 with two homers in April, but he was the same old A-Rod in May hitting five bombs while knocking in 27 runners in 27 games played. He also hit a fine .330 on the month.

I just started watching the series 24 for the first time on DVD. Don’t know how people waited an entire week to watch the next episode. And yes, I find Nina attractive.

Grady Sizemore was transferred from the 15 day DL to the 60 day DL meaning that in a best case scenario he would return a couple of weeks after the All-Star game. He might still need more extensive surgery than what is currently planned, the doctors won’t know until they get in there, so there is a chance that he might end up missing the rest of the season.

Overall batters are hitting.215 this season against Justin Verlander. However, they seem to be able get to him before he settles in as evidenced by his .370 batting average against in the first inning. After that, they have no shot.

By Ray Flowers

Robbed of Greatness

Nomar Garciaparra returned to the Red Sox today as he signed a 1-day minor league contract to retire with the team that he starred with years ago. “From the first day I had the thrill of putting on a Red Sox uniform and playing in front of all the great fans at Fenway Park, I have felt at home in Boston,” Garciaparra said. “While I had the privilege of playing with other legendary teams, I always saw myself retiring in a Red Sox uniform.”

How great could he have been if his body didn’t betray him?

From 1997 when he won the Rookie of the Year award (.306-30-98-122-22) through 2000, Nomar was one of the best hitters in all of baseball.

He was second in hits (791).
He was 3rd in average (.337).
He was 3rd in doubles (174).
He was 6th in extra base hits (313).
He was 15h in OPS (.963).

During those four years an average Nomar season produced a batting line of .337-28-105-110-13. That was an “average” Nomar season. To put that effort in perspective, Albert Pujols has NEVER had even one season that he met all of those numbers.

Moreover, Nomar’s numbers as a shortstop, even with all the injuries that ruined his career, still place him amongst the best that have ever played the game at that position.

Nomar is:

2nd in OPS (.914)
3rd in SLG (.546)
5th in batting average (.320)
8th in home runs (190)

But because of the injuries that ravaged his body, the triumvirate of Nomar, Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez didn’t play out the way everyone had hoped. Nomar was beat down with injuries, A-Roid moved to third, and Jeter just kept on keeping on for the Yankees. Still, Nomar’s career numbers stack up very well against the other two. Don’t believe me? Check this out.

Nomar: .313/.361/.521 for an .882 OPS
Jeter: .317/.406/.465 for an .847 OPS
A-Rod: .305/.390/.576 with a .965 OPS

OK, it’s not really fair to compare the trio since they all bring different talents to the dish, but clearly Nomar was the equal of Jeter at the plate despite what you hear from people (A-Rod is in a league of his own).

I’ve heard the lame ‘but Jeter has all the championships” to “prove” why he is better than Nomar, but as I wrote on the Baseball Guys’ Twitter Page today – “It’s not tennis. One player can’t win a championship.” The next line of thought in this vein is that Jeter is sooooo “clutch.” Well anecdotally he might be, and I have to admit that he does always seem to come through late in the year, but the data says that Nomar was every bit the hitter that Jeter was when the pressure was at it’s most intense. Here are the numbers for each player with RISP for their entire careers.

Jeter: .308/.403/.429
Nomar: .324/.394/.527

The numbers certainly don’t tell the whole story, but they clearly show that Nomar was money when the pressure was on.

How good could Garciaparra been if he had stayed healthy? Nomar won the Rookie of the Year award in 1997 and made six All-Star appearances in his career. He also owns one of only two seasons in baseball history, the other belongs to A-Rod, in which a shortstop hit .300 with 30 homers, 95 RBI, 120 runs and 20 steals. Nomar also owns the third highest single season batting average for a shortstop (.372) since 1900 (Luke Appling hit .388 in 1936 while Arky Vaughan hit .385 in 1935). That’s a pretty impressive set of numbers for a guy who’s prime was far too short.

If he had stayed healthy there is no doubt whatsoever that Nomar would have made the Hall of Fame. However, it simply wasn’t meant to be so he will have to live with the fact that, like Sandy Koufax, his career could have been oh so much more if huis body hadn’t betrayed him.

Note: You can read more about Nomar at Sox Tea Party.

By Ray Flowers