Around the World: ADP

The calendar is about to flip to March, and that will signal that the fantasy baseball season is in full effect. Mock drafts will heat up to the point where you’ll start dreaming about passing up on Andrew McCutchen in the 8th round and you’ll wonder why you didn’t pull the trigger on that second closer at the end of the 15th round.

To help you as you prepare for fantasy baseball’s version of March Madness, I’ll look at Average Draft Position data from time to time. If you need a refresher course in what ADP is and why it matters, make sure you read ADP Talk – What is it?

A caveat. Make sure that whichever ADP information you are looking at is geared toward your specific league. It does you no good to look at National Fantasy Baseball Championship data if you are in a league that has only 10 teams (the NFBC has 15 team leagues. You can win over $100,000 playing in it by the way, so you might wan to check it out). To read some pertinent NFBC ADP data make sure you give a look at Jason Collette’s Talking ADP piece.

As for what follows here, I will be reviewing ADP data from 13 leagues. Each league contains 15 teams with 14 hitters and nine pitchers starting (just like the NFBC starting lineup) with standard 5×5 scoring categories. Here are some things that I noticed in the data (thanks to Geoffrey Stein for sending it along).

(1) Here is the top-10.
Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, Chase Utley, Ryan Braun
Matt Kemp, Mark Teixeira, Joe Mauer, Prince Fielder and Evan Longoria.

To me, Mauer at #8 is awful. Too much growth last year for him to sustain it. Plus, catcher is such a brutal position physically.

I also question the wisdom of Teixeira at #7. I’d much rather have Miguel Cabrera at #13.
Last three years: Teixeira (.302-34-116-97-1) and Cabrera (.312-35-116-91-3).

(2) You’re going to need to get your corner infielders quickly. Of the top 33 selections, eight were first basemen and six were third sackers meaning fully 42 percent of the top-33 picks played first or third.

(3) Pitching isn’t a priority early. Tim Lincecum (#17) is the only hurler in the top-30. Here are the others in the top-50: Roy Halladay (31), CC Sabathia (34), Felix Hernandez (38), Zack Greinke (41), Dan Haren (48) and Justin Verlander (49).

(4) Catchers aren’t going early after the big-3. Mauer (#8), Victor Martinez (24) and Brian McCann (39) are the only catchers in the top-75. Next comes Matt Wieters at 78, and after that you have to go all the way down to #126 to find the next backstop – Miguel Montero.

(5) How are people evaluating players that were hurt last year? Here’s a look.

22nd overall – Jose Reyes
He’s currently the fourth SS off the board after Hanley Ramirez (2), Troy Tulowitzki (14) and Jimmy Rollins (20). I think all three should be taken before Reyes because of the reliability factor, but Tulowitzki as a first round pick? I have a real problem with that.

23rd – Grady Sizemore
Mr. 20/20 (each year from 2005-08), clearly has the faithful convinced that last year was just one of those seasons. If healthy, there is little reason to doubt that consensus, but it’s still a bit risky to spend a second round pick on Sizemore at this point.

125th – Brandon Webb
All reports are really positive that Webb looks and feels strong so far. Given his extreme consistency before last years shoulder issues someone is certainly going to be tempted to draft Webb at this point of a draft, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he ends up sneaking into the top-100 if he has no setbacks in spring. Personally, I’ll pass. Scott Baker (137) or James Shields (144) certainly seem like much safer bets to me.

So there you go. As I said, this won’t be the last time I address this issue of ADP.

And finally, with Fanball.com going completely free with our baseball coverage for the next three weeks, here are a few links to some of my recent work. Enjoy.

Breaking Down: Chad Qualls

Breaking Down: Clayton Kershaw

Sabermetric Primer: SWIP

Sabermetric Primer: Game Score

Sabermetric Primer: Quality Start Percentage

By Ray Flowers

Braun’s Brilliance

A year after being a bit unsure about this guy because of his lack of patience and a whole bunch of strikeouts, I’m finally sold on the superlative slugger from the Brewers. Don’t get me wrong, I wasn’t a naysayer last year, but I did have my doubts about whether or not he could be a top-10 fantasy performer (I was thinking more like top-20). Turns out I was wrong. I think Ryan Braun could go 30/30 this year, he seems a fair bet to at go 30/20 as he did last season, and if he continues to show growth in his plate discipline he could rival Albert Pujols in the Triple Crown categories. Given that, I thought it might be fun to compare Pujols and Braun’s first three seasons in the league to one another, though remember that Braun was called up late in 2007 and appeared in only 117 games as a rookie while Pujols appeared in 161 games in his freshman season.

Braun: .308-103-317-296-49 with a .363 OBP and .574 SLG in 1,697 ABs

Pujols: .334-114-381-367-28 with a .412 OBP and .613 SLG in 1,771 ABs

OK, Braun clearly comes up short, but Pujols does arguably own the greatest three season run to open a career of any man who has ever played the game. Therefore, let’s lower the bar a bit and compare Braun’s first three season to some of the best hitters of recent memory to see how he stacks up. In order to make this comparison fair to everyone, I’ll list each players first three “full seasons” in the bigs since no one hits .324 with 34 homers in their rookie season as Braun did. This gives “the field” an advantage over Braun whose numbers come from his true rookie season and following two campaigns. Can anyone use that edge to best Braun’s barometer of success?

Miguel Cabrera: .318-92-342-319-15 with a .394 OBP and .547 SLG in 1,792 ABs

Prince Fielder: .276-112-302-277-12 with a .372 OBP and .536 SLG in 1,730 ABs

Todd Helton: .336-102-358-30-15 with a .415 OBP and .607 SLG in 1,688 ABs

Matt Holliday: .326-89-338-307-35 with a .387 OBP and .571 SLG in 1,171 ABs

Manny Ramirez: .315-90-307-278-16 with a .405 OBP, .559 SLG in 1,595 ABs

Alex Rodriguez: .322-101-331-364-90 with a .375 OBP and .562 SLG in 1,874 ABs

Mark Teixeira: .282-107-340-279-9 with a .362 SLG and .541 SLG in 1,718 ABs

Chase Utley: .310-82-310-328-40 with a .388 OBP and .543 SLG in 1,731 ABs

David Wright: .314-83-325-308-71 with a .396 OBP and .534 SLG in 1,761 ABs

———-

Ryan Braun: .308-103-317-296-49 with a 363/.574/.937 line in 1,697 ABs

Braun is the only player surveyed, other than Pujols and Teixeira, whose production is from his first three seasons in the bigs, while all others were from their first three “full seasons.”

So what does all of this mean? A couple of points stand out.

(1) Braun’s combination of batting average and home runs is nearly unmatched by any of the games current crop of stars. Only Braun, Helton and A-Rod hit at least .305 with 100 homers.

(2) Only A-Rod and Wright can match Braun’s 5×5 talents across the board.

(3) Braun is off to a start that, if not for Albert Pujols, could legitimately be called the best three season run to start a major league players career in 15 years. Sign me up for some bratwursts and Braun Milwaukee as there is little doubt in my mind that he is the top option in the outfield for fantasy leagues in 2010.

By Ray Flowers

Who Am I?

Who Am I?

From time to time I like to play this game of leading you down the Yellowbrick road to the Wizard of Oz (here is a link to my most recent venture in the world of Who am I?). With that brief intro, let’s get right to it.

* I made five All-Star teams (1993-97).

* I hit .301 in my career. Only 192 men who have ever played that game have posted a higher mark (minimum 3,000 plate appearances).

* I didn’t reach 2,500 career hits, but I did smack 2,468 of them, the 96th best mark ever.

* I didn’t reach 1,500 career runs but I did stroll across home plate 1,494 times, good enough for 68th all-time.

* I didn’t reach 500 doubles, but I did slug 495 two baggers, the 55th best mark ever.

* I knocked in 1,704 runs, the 22nd best mark of all-time.

* I had one of the best eyes at the dish – ever. In fact, I often was picked on by the media because I took too many pitches. As a result of my approach I walked 1,667 times, the 9th most ever, and that helped me to post an OBP of .419 (21st all-time).

* Because of all my extra base hits (26th all-time with 1,028) I was able to post the 25th best SLG ever at .555.

* Not surprisingly, since I’m 21st all-time in OBP and 25th in SLG, my overall OPS of .974 is top notch, 15th best ever actually.

* I was the AL MVP twice (1993-94).

* I have 4.79 Win Shares, the 13th highest mark in the history of the game thanks to those two wins, and six overall top-5 MVP finishes.

* I hit 521 homers in my career, the 18th best mark of all-time.

* I share the same name as a slugger who once hit 10 home runs in just 20 at-bats over six games in May, 1968.

Who am I? I’m Frank Thomas.

The reason I decided to write about Thomas should hopefully be obvious after reading all those numbers above (not to mention the fact that he officially retired from baseball on Thursday last week). The bottom line with Frank is that he was one of the most fearsome sluggers the game has ever seen – period. Let me place all of the above numbers into perspective.

How many players in history have hit .300 with 500 homers, 1,700 RBI, 1,400 runs and an OPS of .950? The answer is six, and obviously Frank is one of them. The others, well to say that they are some of the all-time greats is an understatement: Alex Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, Jimmie Foxx, Babe Ruth and Ted Williams.

Not just a “numbers” guy, Frank was exceedingly well respected in his career as evidenced by his dual MVPs and the 13th most Win Shares of all-time, and that should clearly have led to some “love” for the guy from the fans and the media, but all many seem to remember is the lumbering injury prone hitter of the past few years.

As a counter argument to his potential election to the Hall of Fame you’ll get the argument that he wasn’t very athletic and that he was a poor defensive player. I can’t refute that in the least. However, the totality of his offensive work was so spectacular, remember the group of six referenced above, that if Frank is kept out of the HOF they should revoke the credentials of the voting body because if the voters don’t put a check in the box next to his name they clearly have no inkling of an understanding of what it means to be a dynamic offensive weapon, and therefore they have no business determining who is immortalized in the Hall of Fame.

By Ray Flowers

The Hidden Truth

While doing my daily run around the world of sports last week, I came across a very interesting article written by Jeff Passan that you can find at Stimulants Gain Attention. It doesn’t take a genius to figure out what the piece was about.

Normally, I avoid all the talk of steroids and performance enhancing drugs (PED). Sure, I sometimes delve into the topic, I can’t avoid it entirely in my line of work, but honestly most of the time I try to pay attention to what is happening on the field and let the legal wrangling and the blowhards deal with PED’s. However, Mr. Passan’s column was so illuminating I thought I simply had to break it down. Here are some of the highlights of the piece.

1- 108 players in 2009 were awarded a free pass for drug use. What do I mean? 108 major league players were granted a TUE or Therapeutic Use Exemption to take drugs on the banned list. These 108 baseball player all were being treated for ADHD or Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder. That’s nearly nine percent of all players, more than double the population at large. “It looks fishy,” said Dr. Ari Tuckman, the VP of the Attention Deficit Disorder Association. “It doesn’t mean it is, but it looks that way.”

2- In 2006 there were 28 players granted a TUE.

3- In 2007 MLB started testing for stimulants.

4- In 2007 the number of TUE’s quadrupled to 103.

You do the math.

5- Though baseball says they have tightened the rules for TUE, in 2008 the number of players on the list increased from 103 to 106. “A healthy percentage of applications for new TUE’s was rejected,” MLB Players Association director Michael Weiner said

6- ADHD drugs are not steroids. However, they do bring a heightened sense of alertness, and an inner calmness, two traits that clearly might have just a wee bit of an effect on a hitter. “In the most general sense, almost everybody does better on a stimulant,” Dr. Tuckman said, “which is something Starbucks and Coca-Cola figured out long ago.”

So what do we have here? Well, approximately 15 percent of all major league players are using prescription medication that could be said, in the least, to give the user a more heightened ability to focus. Given the requirements of the game, a game that goes on day after day for six months, you often hear that players are more mentally tired than physically worn down. Do you think a little pick me up in the form of a TUE leading to medication might help? I’m not saying that there aren’t some players who legitimately might have a medically condition, but double the rate of the general population? To say that seems unlikely would be kind.

In the end, this problem will never go away. Those that want to cheat will likely always be one step ahead of those that are trying to catch them. Those that can skirt by legally will likely do everything they can to gain that little extra edge. And to be truthful, is there really any difference between having a TUE or stealing signs on the field? You might even be able to make a cogent argument that stealing signs is actually worse because it informs you how the play will develop (if you take a drug, you still have to read, react and perform). I don’t know if there is any way to put all of this “drug” stuff behind us, but if there is I’d be 100 percent behind it because for far too long the story hasn’t been about what happens on the field, it’s been about what has happened in the doctor’s office.

By Ray Flowers

Turn Back the Clock: Third Base

Today I’m going to discuss the third base position as I continue to review my predictions for the top-10 at the position to see how they panned out (the following list is taken from the 2009 Fanball Annual Guide that was on newsstands prior to the start of the 2009 season).

To read previous positional reviews click on the following link:

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

SECOND BASE

1. Alex Rodriguez

2. David Wright

3. Aramis Ramirez

4. Evan Longoria

5. Chippers Jones

6. Garrett Atkins

7. Chone Figgins

8. Aubrey Huff

9. Kevin Youkilis

10. Alex Gordon

A-Rod rebounded from hip surgery and missing a month of action to record yet another 30-HR, 100-RBI season. That’s 12-straight years of that type of effort to tie the all-time record previously held by Jimmie Foxx. Yeah, he really slowed down didn’t he?

Wright hit .307, two points below his career mark, got on base at a .390 clip (career .389) and stole 27 bases. Yet his season was a failure. Why? A five year low in runs (88) and RBI (72) was distressing, but his simply atrocious total of 10 homers, after 26 or more the previous four seasons, rendered his ’09 after an abysmal outing for a player who wasn’t hurt.

Ramirez injured his shoulder which limited him to a mere 82 games played. Still, in half a season of games he hit .319 with a .905 OPS as he hit 15 long balls and 65 RBI putting his production slightly ahead of the levels we have come to expect.

Longoria had only 58 RBI over his last 105 games, but with 55 in his first 51 his overall mark of 113 was the best at the position. Evan also went deep 33 times, was one of only three third sackers to score 100 runs (100 exactly), and hit a solid .281 with a .889 OPS. Not a bad second season in the league wouldn’t you say?

Jones hit at least .324 from 2006-08, but at 37 years of age expecting a repeat was asking too much (he hit just .264). Why was he ranked fifth on my list then if I already had lower expectations for his ’09 outlook? Bottom line was that the third base position just wasn’t that deep heading into last season (and still isn’t in 2010).

Atkins was abysmal. Period. You can read all about the performance in my recent Five Questions piece.

Figgins had a terrific season and it will make him a lot of money this offseason. Chone led the position with 114 runs and 42 steals, while hitting .298 with a .395 OBP. By thaw way, he was second in the AL in runs scored (Dustin Pedroia crossed the plate 115 times).

Huff failed, miserably, to repeat his tremendous 2008 effort (.304-32-108) turning out a .241-15-85 line in a season split with the Orioles and Tigers. He didn’t play a single game at third instead seeing time exclusively at first base (93 games) and DH.

Youkilis was much more productive than I thought he would be. He failed to match his ’08 numbers (.312-29-115-91), but was pretty darn close across the board (.306-27-94-99).

Gordon was injured, had hip surgery, spent time at Triple-A and all-around was a huge disappointment. He hit only .232 with a .703 OPS in 49 games, and in the offseason the Royals brought in Josh Fields to possibly challenge Gordon for starts at third in the coming campaign.

By Ray Flowers

The Evil Empire

“You don’t know the power of the dark side!” If you haven’t been living on a desert island for the past, oh, 30 years, you know that this is a quite from Darth Vader of Star Wars fame. If you don’t know who he is, I truly feel sorry for you, but sufficed to say that he is the leader of the “evil” side in the battle for the universe, and helps to patrol over the dominion of the “Evil Empire.” Taking a page from this saga, Red Sox President Larry Lucchoino in 2002 deemed the Yankees “The Evil Empire” for their propensity to spend whatever it cost to put together the best team money can buy. This has been the case basically for the past 15 years, and it continues to be a massive question that needs to be addressed if the idea of competitive balance is at the core of what major league baseball really want to address (currently there is no salary cap, only a luxury tax). Consider the following three points.

1- The Yankees 40-man payroll in 2009 cost over $215 million. The next highest team was the other one from New York, the Mets, and their payroll was “only” $141 million (these totals are from an article by Jayson Stark).

2- The difference between the Yankees and the Mets, some $74 million, is more than the entire payroll of nine teams.

3- If you add up the payrolls of the Marlins, Padres, Pirates and Athletics those four teams come in at less than $190 million, or $25 million less than the Yankees.

Obviously the Yankees spending is a huge problem, one that threatens to ruin the game in my opinion if left unchecked, but the point of the article by Mr. Stark was that there is something fishing going on here. Distilling his piece down into one sentence, here is what we get:

Major league teams pocket $80 million before they sell a single ticket because of revenue sharing, radio and television money, and the central fund.

This raises the obvious question. If major league baseball is a $6 billion dollar a year business, and teams do in fact receive $80 million a year before selling a single ticket, how is it possible that 12 teams failed to have a payroll of $80 million in 2009? Here is the explanation of MLB’s chief labor negotiator, Rod Manfred. “You need to understand that these teams have expenses in addition to the 25-man roster on the field…They have the cost of their player-development system, which averages $15 million [per team] a year. They have the cost of acquiring [amateur] players through the [June] draft and internationally, which averages $9 million [per team] a year.” While that might all be true, the $80 million figure listed above does not include ticket sales, parking, sponsorships, souvenirs etc. With all that extra do coming in, is there really a reason that any team shouldn’t be able to spend $80 million on payroll?

After all of that Mr. Stark says that we shouldn’t blame the Yankees because at least they take that money and shove it back into their payroll. However, what does a team like the Marlins, who had the lowest payroll in baseball at under $40 million, do with all that extra dough? Honestly, a team like the Marlins just might be out-profiting clubs that spend three times as much money, even if their ticket sales are rather diminutive.

In the end I still hate the Yankees, and the fact that they simply try to buy championships. But this is a free market society, and a free market game, so you can’t blame them for taking advantage of the rules. However, if you are a Marlins fan, you might want to ask your team where that extra $40 million dollars is going because it clearly isn’t being invested in the on the field product.

By Ray Flowers

World Series Wrap Up

I know it’s a bit late to put a bow on the World Series, but I was out of town at the Arizona Fall League looking at the rookies that will make their mark in the coming campaigns (you can read my thoughts in AFL Impressions). So, before we leave the 2009 baseball season and start looking toward the 2010 campaign, here are some of my closing thoughts on how things played out with the Yankees and the Phillies in the Fall Classic.

The Yankees have won 27 World Series. If you add up team’s #2-4 on the list you end up with a mere total of 26 championships – St. Louis (10), Oakland (nine) and Boston (seven). Moreover, the Yankees ended the third longest drought in franchise history at eight seasons without a championship. The two longer streaks were 17 (1979-95) and 14 (1963-76) seasons. By the way, the Nationals, Rangers, Rays, Mariners, Padres, Brewers, Astros and Rockies are still looking for their first championship.

Cliff Lee became the first pitcher since Don Newcomb in 1949 to have a game of 10 or more strikeouts and zero walks (in fact, he tossed back-to-back such outings in the NLCS and his first series start). In his two starts against the Yankees, Lee struck out 13 batters, walked just three and went 2-0.

Andy Pettitte is the all-time leader in post-season victories with 18. Pettitte also used the 2009 playoffs to become just the third pitcher in history to emerge with a victory in all three clinching games (division series, league championship and World Series). The other hurlers are Derek Lowe in 2004 and Freddy Garcia in 2005. Still, this talk that Pettitte is one of the greatest clutch pitchers of all-time is ludicrous. Sure he leads the way in the win column, but don’t overlook the fact that he has made 40 starts in front of some dominating offenses. Sample size people, look it up if you don’t understand what I’m talking about (Some People Never Learn is a good place to start).

For all this talk that Alex Rodriguez is a choke artist, it may be time to change that broken record. After all, the guy hit .365 with six homers, 18 RBI and 15 runs scored in 15 playoff games. On yeah, he was pretty good at getting on base (.500 OBP) and piling up bases as well (.808 OPS). With this amazing post-season A-Rod how owns a .302/.409/.568 line in 199 post-season at-bats, numbers that are almost an exact duplication of his career line during the regular season (.305/.390/.576).

If you want to talk about chocking under pressure, the very thought of which I find to be complete poppycock – like and MVP performer will suddenly just devolve into a sniveling morass of failure merely because it’s the playoffs – your gaze would have to fall on Ryan Howard. The big fella hit only .174 in 23 at-bats in the Series with a whopping total of 13 strikeouts, the most ever in the World Series. After striking out eight times in his first nine post-season games this year, Howard simply hit a rough patch at the absolute worst time.

Derek Jeter has played 138 post-season games in his career, basically just a bit under a full major league season. How has he done? To the surprise of no one he has been terrific with a .313 average, 20 homers, 55 RBI, 99 runs and 16 steals. Pressure, what pressure?

Hideki Matsui was awarded the World Series MVP in part because of his .615 average (8-for-13), the third highest ever in the Series (Billy Hatcher hit .750 in 1990 while Babe Ruth hit .625 in 1928). Matsui also knocked in eight runs to tie the World Series mark which was, fittingly, last reached by Reggie Jackson in 1978.

And finally I’ll close my coverage by calling on the best post-season closer in history in Mariano Rivera. The Yanks’ closer has posted an amazing 0.99 ERA in 36.1 World Series innings, and shockingly that number is merely 5th amongst guys who have tossed at least 30-innings in the Series. Here are the men who are ahead of him.

0.83 – Harry Brecheen in 32.2 IP
0.87 – Babe Ruth in 31 IP
0.89 – Sherry Smith in 30.1 IP
0.95 – Sandy Koufax in 57 IP

Rivera is tremendous, but he has a ways to go if he wants to match the dominance that Koufax showed, or that of Christy Mathewson who posted an utterly amazing 1.06 mark over 101.2 innings.

By Ray Flowers

Brotherly Love? Not so Much

“I can’t wait for it to end,” Cole Hamels said after the a Game 3 loss to the Yankees in the World Series. “It’s been mentally draining. At year’s end, you just can’t wait for a fresh start.” Those comments obviously were certainly pretty shocking, and they certainly didn’t endear Mr. Hamels with his teammates. In fact, Brett Myers, never one to avoid a melee (he was reportedly seen physically abusing his wife a few years back in Boston though charges were eventually dropped), confronted Hamels before Game 5 when an altercation ensued after Myers was heard to say “What are you doing here? I thought you quit.”

I thought these guys played for the City of Brotherly Love?

(A subsequent report says that the confrontation was “fake” and that the two hurlers remain close friends)

As a result, Hamels has lots of explaining to do (I just had an I Love Lucy flashback). He tried to start the process with the following statement. “Sometimes I might not say the best things or the smartest things, but I’ve learned and am learning. I wasn’t able to sleep the past couple of nights because of it.” Neither was I Cole, but it wasn’t because I sounded like a buffoon, it was because of this new pillow I got that seems to be just a tad too poffy to allow me to really get into the groove to get my sleep on. But I digress.

I don’t know what’s been going on in Hamels head, but clearly his performance this season has suffered – substantially. After winning 29 games the past two seasons with and ERA of 3.22, Hamels struggled along in the regular season to a 10-11 mark with a 4.32 ERA. Even worse than those regular season struggles though has been his continued misadventures in these playoffs. Hamels is 1-2 with a 7.58 ERA through four starts this post-season, this after a playoff run last season that saw him take home the NLCS (2-0, 1.93 ERA, 1.14 WHIP) and World Series (1-0, 2.77 ERA, 1.00 WHIP) MVP awards.

Clearly Hamels hasn’t been at his best, and for a guy who has probably dominated nearly every batter he faced over the first 20 years of his life, one can imagine it has been rather difficult for him to find a way to deal with the struggles this year. Still, that’s no excuse for being an idiot when talking to the press. I’ve written it before, and here it is again; if you are a pro athlete never let your guard down, and do your best to give “yes” and “no” answers if at all possible. The more elucidation you offer, the more willing you are to simply “be real” with the press, the more likely you are to emerge looking like a moron. Keep your mouth shut and stick to doing what you do best – playing your sport.

WORLD SERIES NOTES

Chase Utley has tied Reggie Jackson’s record of five home runs in a single World Series.

A.J. Burnett’s failures in Game 2 (six earned runs in two innings), besides being his worst start as a Yankee, was also the first time that the Yankees’ starter hadn’t gone at least six innings in the playoffs. In five playoff appearances, Burnett is 1-1 with a 5.27 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP.

Ryan Howard has struck out 12 times in the Series to tie Willie Wilson’s mark from the 1980 Series.

Andy Pettitte will start Game 6 on short rest. In five previous post-season appearances on short rest Pettitte is 3-1 with a 2.88 ERA. Overall in his playoff career Pettitte has made 39 starts going 17-9 with a 3.88 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP over 243.1 innings.

Only six of the 43 teams that have been down three games to one in the Series have come back to win, the last being the 1985 KC Royals which I mentioned yesterday. The Phillies need two more wins to be the seventh.

By Ray Flowers

The More Things Change

I’ve been writing it for about four months now, over and over again. Alas, no one in Philly was listening, and now they have paid the ultimate price. Here is a direct quote from World Series Preview. “Manager Charlie Manuel has a World Series Championship under his belt from last season, but the guy just scares the hell out of me with the use of his pitching staff.” Brad Lidge potentially blew the Phillies season in Game 4 allowing the big hit to Alex Rodriguez to blow the contest as the Phillies fell behind in the Series three games to one. No team since 1985 has come back from a 3-1 deficit (go Kansas City). At least that combo of Lidge-Manuel made me look good, and that’s all I really care about because I’m so vain.

Stephen Strasburg had a spotty outing the second time he took the hill in the Arizona Fall League as he was hammered, torched really, for eight runs (seven earned) over just 2.2 innings. However he improved to 3-1 with a victory on Monday and is now sporting a 5.28 ERA with 17 Ks in just 15.1 innings. Strasburg reportedly hit 100 mph on the radar gun with four of his first six pitches on Monday. The kid can flat out bring it like few who have ever played the game. I can’t wait to see him pitch in games that count come 2010.

The Giants fired hitting coach Carney Lansford after the team had the fewest walks in the majors (392) and the second fewest home runs (112). I find it hard to believe that it was Lansford’s fault. After all, the front office game him about five major league caliber bats to work with. To replace Lansford the team hired former Triple-A hitting coach Hensley Meulens. I doubt Hensley will be able to teach Pablo Sandoval to stop swinging at balls that nearly bounce. Still, I’m always surprised when the hitting coaches end up being guys who couldn’t hit when they played (kind of like how your high school gym teacher was always about 45 lbs overweight). In a career that spanned 496 ABs, Hensley hit .220-15-53 with a .641 OPS. The man he is replacing, Lansford, won a batting title in 1981 (.336), finished second in 1989 (.336) hit over .300 five times, and batted .290 with a .753 OPS while racking up 2,074 hits in his career. Doesn’t make much sense how some of the better hitting coaches just didn’t have successful careers.

And speaking of hitting coaches, why is everyone freaking out about the Cardinals signing of Mark McGwire to man the position? Certainly there is plenty of ammunition for those who want to attack McG for the Andro and performance enhancing drug issue, but that matters little today. There is also a group of people who say ‘McGwire hit .263 in his career, so what can he teach these guys?’ However, as I have just pointed out, compared to Meulens, McGwire was Picasso with the bat in his hands. The bottom line is that McGwire knows how to hit, and being able to teach the mental aspect is often the most important part of hitting. Regardless, did you ever hear anyone say that Mark didn’t have a beautiful swing? Controlled yet extremely violent at the same time, McGwire worked with the gifts that he had at his disposal, and in the end he retired with a .394 OBP and a .982 OPS. All told, McGwire is one of only two men who accrued at least 3,000 plate appearances in his career, hit below .265, and still managed a .390 or better OBP. I have no doubt he can help improve Cardinals batters by helping them to work with the gifts they have at their disposal, not to mention imparting the way to think as I mentioned.

By Ray Flowers

What an Odd Life

Mine is an odd life. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not going to regale you with stories about how hard my life is, it’s really not, it’s just at often times rather odd. Here are some thoughts about why mine is an odd life.

* I get to work in the field of sports. How many people, male or female, would kill for that job? Millions I bet. For those of you are only slightly jealous at that news, how about I add in the fact that I work from home. Now you all hate me, right?

* I get to state my opinion on a daily basis on a myriad of topics, and no matter how much empirical data I use to help form my opinions, I still get a smattering of emails detailing how stupid I am. Really, it’s pretty funny sometimes. I mean there are certainly guys I don’t personally like because of their off the field issues or simply because of the team they play for, but at the same time I’m never going to say that Manny Ramirez or Alex Rodriguez stink because of the teams they play for. Ninety-nine times out of a hundred I’d like to think I let the data lead me to the “correct” conclusion. Even so, I still get the occasionally humorous email asking me how dare I propagate such inane advice on an unsuspecting public. Always brings a chuckle to me.

* I write about “fantasy sports” almost exclusively, though a good deal of my analysis wouldn’t look out of place on a report written by a scout for whatever sport I’m discussing. Still, try impressing a lady by telling her you work from home, write about fantasy sports, and drive a Ford Focus. Now you know why I’m single.

* Each morning I wake up at 7:22, 7:20 or 7:25 is so yesterday, and then spend the next 38 minutes waking up, scaffing down something edible to give my brain some giddy up, and reading all the recaps of the previous night’s action. I then spend an hour on the Fantasy Buffet with Kyle Elfrink talking sports. At 9:01 AM my day has already crested and I’m heading down the mountain as the most exciting part of the day passed when I wasn’t even fully awake.

* I get to do live advice to help pass on some of my knowledge to the fantasy faithful. Some people ask a question and just want a “yes” or “no” type answer, while others will spend 15 minutes arguing with you about whether or not Tim Hightower will pick up four or six carries in the coming week. Quite a bit of diversity here, and you just never know whether you will laughing, or crying, at the end of a shift.

* My seasons are all off, you know, like Mother Nature has been lately (at least here in California where no one, plant or animal, seems to know just quite what to expect anymore). In my case my seasons are off because of the schedules we keep. As a general rule of thumb, I get the chance to follow most sports quite intently for about half the regular season before I end up moving on to the next in some form. As an example, it’s Week 8 of the NFL season, right smack dab in the middle of things, but for the last two weeks I’ve been working on player capsules for our holiday Baseball Magazine (yes, the World Series is still going on too and that adds an odd twist to the proceedings). Honestly, if I think back three months, I was knee deep in putting together the content for our preseason NHL coverage even though baseball was still in full effect. The bottom line is that I’m partially schizophrenic when it comes to my sports coverage because of the responsibilities of my job.

So there you have it. In this brief trip around a day in the life of Ray, I’ve attempted to give a few pointed examples of why my job is a bit odd at times. Believe me I’m not complaining, I can think of about, oh, 138,975 other jobs I wouldn’t rather have, so I’m clearly in the camp of understanding just how lucky I am to have my current position. And with that, I’m going to continue to plow through pitcher capsules for our Baseball Magazine which you will be able to find in time to have something to stuff into your brother’s stocking for the holiday season. Now who is it that just scored that touchdown…

By Ray Flowers